A Bad Day at Work
Many of us have jobs. All of us have lives. And one thing that’s true about any job, or about any life, is that sometimes you wake up in the morning and you just don’t have it. Maybe you’re groggy, maybe you’re irritable, maybe you’ve got brain fog, maybe you have a headache. For whatever reason, there are simply bad days, and they can happen at random. They can come right after normal days, and they can come right after great ones. It’s all part of the experience of existence. You learn not to let the bad days define you.
Many of us have jobs, and all of us have lives, but few of us are performers. The average employee, when necessary, can hide herself or put forth a reduced effort. You can make yourself scarce, or even call in sick. If you’re just having a regular weekend day in the dumps, you can choose to stay in, to not engage with the world. Everyone has the right to bad days, and most people have the flexibility to more or less live their bad days in private. Other people don’t have to know when you’re off.
Performers, entertainers, have no such luxury. The responsibility is to perform for an audience, an audience that will quickly realize if something’s not right. The pressure to do well is ever-present, because, one way or another, you’re going to have to do something, and the people will judge you if what you do isn’t good. The stakes can be frightening, even paralyzing, because there’s no option to hide when you’re a performer. A performer like Dylan Bundy.
There’s no easy way to identify the worst start of all time. You’d think it would be simple, but it turns out that “worst” is subjective. Allan Travers once allowed 24 runs in a start, but he also lasted eight innings. Is that better or worse than Howard Ehmke, who once allowed 17 runs in six innings? The lowest game score on record is -56, for George LeClair, who allowed 21 runs in an eight-inning complete game. Johnny Miljus had a game with a higher score, yet he recorded only nine outs. I don’t know where the balance is. It’s one of those things that might be impossible to define.
Here’s what I can tell you: Dylan Bundy started against the Royals, and he didn’t record an out. He faced seven batters, and all of them reached. All of them also scored, and they all scored against Bundy himself, because he allowed four home runs, including three in a row. There have been five starts in history in which a starter allowed eight runs without recording an out. Improbably, Paul Wilson did that twice. On the other hand, Bundy is now the first starter to allow four homers without recording an out. Bundy probably didn’t have the single worst start of all time. But he’s somewhere in the conversation.
It all started with an infield single.
Bundy’s first pitch of the year was delivered to an ovation. An enormous crowd was on hand at Camden Yards to see the Orioles take on the Twins. Part of it was just the fact that baseball was back at all. But the Orioles, also, opened with a glimmer of hope. No one has had any doubt as to where the Orioles are headed as a franchise, but they were hoping to give it one last run before probably losing Manny Machado. The starting rotation was rebuilt, the lineup looked powerful, and it was possible to squint and see the Orioles winning a wild card. Bundy, for his part, had finally tapped into his promise. After years of being a top prospect, Bundy developed into a top starter. On opening day, he spun seven shutout innings. Although Brad Brach blew a save in the ninth, the Orioles walked it off two innings later. 1-and-0. Another in a long line of Orioles one-run wins.
The Orioles lost their next five games. They pulled themselves up to 4-6, but since then they have four wins and 21 losses. It’s not just that the Orioles are bad. There was always a chance that the Orioles would be bad. It’s that the Orioles are this bad, this early. There was talk of trading Machado even before the first day of May. The point of a baseball season is to give any fan base at least a few months of hope. The Orioles wasted little time in destroying it. One game. That’s pretty much what the fans got. Now it’s about looking ahead to trades for prospects. It’s also about monitoring player development. Development of talented young players like Dylan Bundy.
It’s important to understand how much worse it is that this happened to Bundy, of all people. If it happened to Andrew Cashner, that would be bad, but it wouldn’t hurt so deep. Cashner is just some veteran on a Baltimore layover. Bundy is a homegrown talent, and he’s one of precious few bright spots. Machado is great, but he’s in his contract year. Adam Jones has been great, but he’s also in his contract year, and he’s declining. Zach Britton, contract year. Jonathan Schoop has two years left. Kevin Gausman has three years left. Dylan Bundy has four years left. Four remaining years of team control, for a highly-talented 25-year-old. Bundy is one of the only Orioles on the roster who stands a chance of still being around and still being good the next time the Orioles are competitive. He’s a potential core piece on a team without core pieces. If the Orioles were stronger, they wouldn’t be in this position. They’re in this position, and Bundy holds the burden of hope almost entirely upon his own shoulders.
Dylan Bundy is so important to the Orioles. Buck Showalter left the dugout to remove him before Alex Gordon had even reached home plate.
Through Bundy’s first five starts of the season, he looked like one of the best starters in baseball. He had an ERA of 1.42. Over 31.2 innings, he allowed just eight runs, with nine walks and 40 strikeouts. Among starters, he had the fifth-lowest ERA, and he had the fourth-lowest FIP. He had the tenth-best K-BB%. There just wasn’t anything to worry about. Sure, the Orioles themselves appeared dreadful, but at least Bundy was there. He’s maybe the most important one anyway. Maybe, most of the time, the Orioles would be nearly unwatchable. But 20% of the time, there’d be Bundy on the mound. A good starter can make any game worthwhile.
Bundy has started three games since, totaling nine innings. He’s allowed 22 runs, with an ERA of an even 19.00. His release point has gone up, and his velocity has gone down. I don’t know where to begin. I don’t think anyone does. Things have gotten so bad you’re almost inclined to just ignore them and try to flush it all away. If Bundy were just regular bad, the Orioles might attempt some kind of mechanical tweak. As is, all parties might be frozen by disbelief.
In a way, Bundy took no time at all to arrive, since he was drafted fourth overall in 2011, and then he debuted in the majors in 2012. But of course, in another way, Bundy took a very long time to arrive, since he had Tommy John surgery, which was followed by unusual calcification in the shoulder. Bundy didn’t pitch in 2013. He appeared in nine games in 2014. He appeared in eight games in 2015. At times it wasn’t clear whether Bundy would ever put the injury bug behind him. Fans and organizations are loath to give up on prospects as talented as Bundy clearly was, but there was a great amount of worry. Sometimes pitchers just go the way of Danny Hultzen. Some pitchers’ bodies don’t want to let the pitcher pitch.
Bundy worked through it all, everything, from start to finish. He completed a grueling rehab, and then he completed another, motivated the entire time by the prospect of eventually reaching the majors and becoming successful. In the lowest, darkest moments of physical therapy, Bundy would’ve been able to imagine himself on a major-league mound, throwing major-league pitches to strike out major-league batters. No one ever imagines the bad starts. No one ever imagines that, on the other side of all the rehab, there could be an opportunity to stand on a major-league mound and feel completely, utterly embarrassed before some many thousands of people.
A few weeks ago, Eric Lauer made his major-league debut in Coors Field, and he gave up seven runs in three innings. In the bottom of the second inning, he yielded his first career home run, a grand slam off the bat of Trevor Story. As Story rounded the bases, the camera caught Lauer standing on the back of the mound, looking vaguely toward the outfield with a smile on his face. Lauer couldn’t help but appreciate the moment. “My first big-league home run is a grand slam. That’s perfect.”
Dylan Bundy allowed five batted balls, and four of them left the yard. They came off the bat at 90, 106, 107, 107, and 97 miles per hour. The other two batters, Bundy walked, and that was that. Bundy trudged off, having experienced one of the very worst starts imaginable. In the immediate aftermath, Bundy would’ve felt half mad and half humiliated. Time, however, has already passed. Bundy got to fall asleep, and Bundy got to wake up. It’s a new day, now, a new Wednesday, and Bundy of all players can appreciate that it’s the lowest moments that make the good ones so good.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Jeff, you’re a national treasure.
A stark contrast coming over from the Jay Jaffe piece on Paxton’s no-hitter. I was surprised Jeff wasn’t writing about his boy J-Pax. But Jay did a fantastic job detailing Paxton’s no-no, and Jeff did only what Jeff can do with this.
I wonder if MLB has ever seen a day on which there were two more divergent performances than Paxton’s no-hitter and Bundy’s dumpster fire. I’m admittedly not sure how exactly to measure how “divergent” two performances are, but Bundy’s ERA yesterday was undefined, so his ineffectiveness was quite literally beyond definition. I’m thinking that makes yesterday pretty unique, as far as contrasts go.
Game score would be a pretty easy way to measure SP game divergence, and you are correct probably in that I believe I ready somewhere that Bundy’s game score was one of the worst of all time.
In defense of Travers et al… I imagine that if I were to pitch an MLB game, I would not do worse (results wise) than Bundy did. Not sure I could even physically throw 8 innings.
“I wonder if MLB has ever seen a day on which there were two more divergent performances than Paxton’s no-hitter and Bundy’s dumpster fire.”
I wonder as well, if anyone else who started Paxton and Bundy in Fantasy. Surely I can’t be the only one. But I COULD be the only one who did it in Ottoneu, that harshest critic of the allowed dinger. The net result was about 9 points for the 9 innings pitched.
ACK.
jobs are for poor people and, ironically, rich people, too
camden yards reminds me of that movie where a volcano forms in los angeles and the volcano erupts and everyone has to run away for the volcano or the volcano will destroy everything they love. i think it was called, ‘The Seismic Occurrence of Hot Rocks”
When I checked my email this morning I saw that the title of the FanGraphs newsletter was “The Orioles are Close to Rock Bottom.” Then I saw that it was yesterday’s newsletter, sent before Bundy’s start, and felt a wave of sympathy for O’s fans.
“Bundy is one of the only Orioles on the roster who stands a chance of still being around and still being good the next time the Orioles are competitive.” – You really expect Bundy to pitch until he’s 45 then?
As bad as it was, Bundy’s flame-out wasn’t the lowest (Bill James) Game Score of 2018. Bundy registered a GS of 10 with his catastrophic start, but Matt Moore notched the only negative Game Score of 2018 (so far) on May 2nd. His line? 4 IP, 11 H, 10 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 3 HR for a Game Score of -1. Ouch.
Bill James needs to tweak his game score algorithm.
Agreed. I’d say Bundy’s line was significantly worse (although both are awful).
So I wondered whether any pitcher had managed to give up *four* dongs in a row. Yes.
https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/tht-live/50th-anniversary-paul-foytack-gives-up-four-straight-homers/
Only four known in history.
Paul Foytack 1967
Chase Wright 2007
Dave Bush 2010
Michael Blazek 2017, I missed that!
I nominate we call a game started in which the pitcher fails to record an out while giving up 5+ runs a *Yes Hitter*.
Fantastic idea. However since this is possible without giving up any hits at all, I motion to modify the proposal such that instead of 5 runs, the requirement be 5 hits or some similar amount.
How’s about a *Probable Hitter*?
I was at this start and man, I felt for Bundy
He’s a special pitcher on a team that’s ‘special’ for all the wrong reasons.
Incredibly tough guy. He’ll be back and better than ever.
I was absolutely certain that this article would be about Yadi Molina taking that baseball to the pills…
Is it just me or does Bundy have the most standing-up-idest delivery imaginable? Somehow him getting bombed looks about right.
On the same day that Paxton threw a no-hitter, Bundy threw a no-outer.
Nicely written but zero analysis which is unlike you. Fantasy owners and especially Oriole fans want to know what’s going on. Clearly a mechanical issue unless he’s hurt, velocity down which is a red flag. What is wrong though and how easily can it be fixed? You did say he raised his arm slot but went into no detail at all, strange as raising arm slots is usually a good thing.
I was expecting the usual slo-mo clips of early season Bundy vs current Bundy and comparing to see what’s wrong. That’s why we love you so this article disappointed me.
Covered somewhat here: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/addition-by-subtraction-fixing-dylan-bundy-long-term/
Howard Ehmke. That’s a name I hadn’t seen in long time. The only thing I remembered about him was from a baseball history book I read (over and over) many years ago. He had been the surprise starter and winner of a World Series game for the Philadelphia Athletics, although I couldn’t recall whether it was for the Home Run Baker-Eddie Plank, etc era A’s or the Jimmie Foxx -Lefty Grove era A’s.
So I look him up. Howard Ehmke had a career W-L of 166-166. So he had good days and bad days. He had 30.1 career fWAR. He had a career fWAR peak season in 1924 with 5.7.
Ehmke had a career K/BB per 9 of 3.29/3.32. Not that uncommon back then, but not the mark of a great pitcher. Although it looked like, in an era of rising home run rates, he kept the ball in the park. I wondered if he was a sinker-baller.
Ehmke was born in Silver Creek, NY on the shores of Lake Erie, before his family moved to California. His career started in the Federal League in 1915 for the Buffalo Blues, a short-lived major league. It was the year after the last pennant of the first Athletics dynasty (winners of the World Series in 1910, 1911 and 1913) in 1914. After that, Connie Mack refused to compete with the Federal League salaries, and stars Eddie Plank went to go pitch for the St. Louis Terriers, Chief Bender for the Baltimore Terrapins. The A’s suffered a total collapse, going from 99-53 in 1914 to 43-109 in 1915.
OK, so Ehmke didn’t play for that A’s team. Near the end of his career, he was a spot starter for the 1929 A’s team which ended the reign of the 1927-28 Yankees Murderer’s Row team. The 1929-31 A’s were every bit the equal of the 1926-28 Yanks.
Before that though, he had many career highlights. And the low-light Jeff mentions above. He started the first game at Yankee Stadium ever, a 4-1 loss for the Red Sox. He won 20 games for the Red Sox in 1923.
In 1923, he also pitched a no-hitter in September against the A’s. In the next game, he pitched a 1-hitter against the Yankees. The 1 hit being on a controversial call when the 3rd baseman muffed a grounder and didn’t make a throw to first. He still holds the AL record for fewest hits allowed in consecutive starts with 1. But in that same month, September 1923, he gave up those 17 runs to those same Yanks in his last start of the season.
By 1929 Ehmke was in his next to last season, a journeyman spot starter for the A’s, whose top starters were Lefty Grove, 20-6, George Earnshaw, 24-8, and Rube Walberg, 18-11. Ehmke had gone 7-2. But Mack had Ehmke scout the Cubs in late September and surprised everyone by having Ehmke, at 35, start game 1 of the 1929 World Series against the righty-heavy Cubs.
Ehmke shocked everyone by striking out 13, including hall of Famers Rogers Hornsby, Hack Wilson and Kiki Cuyler twice each, walking 1, and wining 3-1, allowing just 1 unearned run.
It was his last major league win. Howard Ehmke made 339 major league starts. He never had double digit strikeouts in a game other than that game 1 of the 1929 World Series.
Ehmke also led the AL in hit batsmen 5 times. he’s 16th all-time in hit batters.
Ehmke also “invented” the tarpaulin,at least allegedly for its use in covering a baseball field, selling his first one to the Pirates in 1925 while he was still a player.
His business expanded after he retired. A WWI vet, he sold canvas covers for Naval guns during WWII.
He died in 1959.
Ehmke Manufacturing Company is still around today, based where Ehmke earned lasting fame, Philadelphia.
http://ehmkemanufacturing.com/
So he had one really bad day at the office. But a lot of good ones.
Shorter version:
Howard Ehmke:
– Career W-L 166-166, 30.1 fWAR
– Led AL in hit batsmen 5 times. 16th all-time.
– Started and losing pitcher in first game ever at Yankee Stadium.
– Won 20 games in 1923.
– Pitched no-hitter in 1923. Followed by 1-hitter against Yanks on blown call.
– AL record for fewest hits in consecutive starts: 1.
– In same month gives up 17 runs to yanks.
– Surprise starter in 1929 opening World Series game, strikes out 13 and gives up 1 unearned run in 3-1 win.
– That world series win is his last career win, and only game in 339 career starts with double digit strikeouts.
– invented the tarp for covering ballfields when it rains.
– Howard Ehmke’s life puts yours in humiliating perspective
I really enjoyed the long version. Thanks!
I enjoyed it as well.
Thanks guys. I hadn’t realized he’d had such an interesting career and life.
The context of his era was not what I’d thought. He was 8th in K/9 at 3.4 in 1924, when he was 2nd in fWAR among pitchers. Only 2 guys had K/9 over 5: Dazzy Vance and Walter Johnson. In 1914, the year before Ehmke’s career started, 17 guys had K/9 over 5. Interestingly, despite the relative surge in homers, strikeouts went down.
And Ehmke led the majors with 315 IP in 1924 (and was 10th in FIP). I hadn’t thought that a large number for the era, but only 2 guys tossed 300 innings that year. Nowadays you’d think 300+ innings, that’s nuts. You’d think that IPs went down fairly linearly over time. But 50 years later, in 1974, 8 guys tossed over 300 innings. A lot of those guys routinely threw a lot of innings and lasted a long time, but perhaps the free agency era that started shortly after that led teams to take a bit more care of their investment.
It’s hard to pick a comp across eras, but it would kinda like be as if James Shields (their career fWARs are both around 30) started game 1 of this year’s world series and struck out 18 guys.