A Derby That Delivered the Goods

Walk-off. Walk-off! WALK-OFF! Bryce Harper won the 2018 Home Run Derby at Nationals Park in dramatic and impressive fashion, needing less than the full complement of time to beat his opponents in all three rounds. At ease in front of the hometown fans showering him with cheers, the Derby’s No. 2 seed and the only contestant with previous experience rose to the occasion each time. After dispatching seventh-seeded Freddie Freeman and third-seeded Max Muncy in the quarter- and semifinals, the 25-year-old Nationals superstar did have his back to the wall in the final round against fifth-seeded Kyle Schwarber, but with nine homers in the final minute — on 10 swings by my count, though ESPN’s broadcast said nine in a row — he tied the Cubs slugger’s total of 18. On the second pitch of the 30-second bonus period, he lofted a 434-foot drive to center field, then did a two-handed bat flip as the crowd went wild, and quickly handed the trophy to his barrel-chested father, Ron, who had pitched to him:

In a field that was somewhat lacking in star power, with no Mike Trout (who’s never participated), no Aaron Judge (who did not defend the title he won as a rookie in 2017), no Giancarlo Stanton (who won in 2016 but then was upset in his home park last year), and no player from among the season’s top five home-run totals for the first time since at least 2008, Harper — the biggest name from among the eight participants, even if he has struggled by his own standards this season — took center stage. He became just the third player to win the Home Run Derby (which began in 1985) in his home park, after the Cubs’ Ryne Sandberg in 1990 and the Reds’ Todd Frazier in 2015.

Frazier’s win came in the first year of a format that has turned the event from a three-hour slog into a vastly more entertaining spectacle that ran just over two hours. Instead of swinging until having made 10 “outs” (non-homers), players have four minutes to hit as many homers as possible, with the caveat that a ball can’t be pitched until the last one landed. Each player gets one 30-second timeout in the first two rounds and two timeouts in the finals. A player hitting two homers projected by Statcast to have traveled at least 440 feet unlocks an extra 30 seconds of bonus time.

Fifteen of Harper’s 44 homers in the three rounds traveled that far, six apiece in the quarterfinals and finals, and three in the semifinals. His longest blast, a 473-footer in the finals, was outdone only by Javier Baez’s 479-footer in the first round.

Though Harper was considered the oddsmakers’ favorite (and my pick to win) entering the competition, not much went according to plan — or at least not according to seeding, which was done based upon raw home-run totals as of July 10. Just two of the top four seeds advanced in the quarterfinals, and two of my four picks.

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.

In the night’s opening matchup, eighth-seeded Rhys Hoskins knocked off top-seeded Jesus Aguilar, the NL leader in home runs, 17-12. That wasĀ the most lopsided outcome of the night, as it turned out. After needing the first minute and 20 seconds to total three homers, and hitting just five by the time he took his first timeout with 2:05 remaining, the Phillies’ slugger — who at this time last year was participating in the Futures Game — resumed by bashing six out of seven balls over the wall in the next minute. He added another flurry of a half-dozen in the last 35 seconds but had just one drive of 440 or more (a 463-footer). While Aguilar got on the board with a 420-footer in his first swing, he had just three after the first minute, and more or less maintained that clip, never showing the urgency necessary to catch up to Hoskins. The No. 1 seed was one-and-done.

The second matchup, between the fourth-seeded Alex Bregman and Schwarber, was much tighter. Schwarber made a strong opening statement with a 427-footer to right center, but hit the wall three times over the next minute or so and had just four when taking his timeout relatively early at 2:29. He didn’t get his fifth homer until just past the two-minute mark, but that became the first of six over a one-minute span, pushing him to 10 with a minute remaining. With less than 10 seconds to go, he hit a towering 450-footer to claim the bonus time, and after finishing regulation with 14, added two in the extra 30 seconds, becoming the night’s first hitter to reach the third deck in right field.

Bregman homered in his first swing, hit three in his first 33 seconds and had seven when he took his timeout at the 2:04 mark, where Astros teammates Jose Altuve, Gerrit Cole, George Springer, and Justin Verlander huddled around him for a pep talk. He homered in two of his first three swings out of the break,and reached 15 with 10 seconds remaining. His next ball didn’t even make the warning track, while his second, uncorked with one second remaining, hit off the center-field off the wall, missing the tie by just a few feet. Oh, the agony of defeat.

The matchup between Muncy and the sixth-seeded Baez was every bit as gripping. Baez, who was pitched to by older brother Gadiel, didn’t hit his first homer until 3:24, and then crushed two on either side of the three-minute mark, with the second a massive 479-footer to left-center. With a 443-footer shortly after that, he earned his bonus, and had seven when he took his timeout at 1:58, during which Schwarber, Francisco Lindor, Yadier Molina and a few other players from both leagues swarmed around to offer encouragement. Between his wild swings and his brother’s somewhat wild pitches, Baez didn’t really find a groove until his final 30 seconds. He finished with 14 in regulation and added two more in the bonus round.

Muncy, with a much more repeatable swing, homered six times in the first minute, but managed only two the second, sneaking one just over the 335-foot sign in the right-field corner, one swing before taking his timeout. He returned and soon hit three over 430 feet, bang-bang-bang, tying Baez at 16 with 44 seconds to go, and hitting a walk-off at the 35 second mark.

The Harper-Freeman pairing was a mismatch, with the Braves first baseman’s opposite-field approach inefficient for the format. Freeman homered just twice in the first minute, but did reach six by his timeout at 1:55. Still, it was quickly apparent that his total of 12 wouldn’t stand up when Harper mashed four in his first minute, two of at least 440 feet. Even with the slight handicap of waiting for his long-distance drives to land — a 467-footer, and soon 462, 455, and, 465 in rapid succession — he still had about 30 seconds to go when he hit his 13th to eliminate Freeman.

Buoyed by his upset victory over Aguilar, Hoskins nearly toppled Schwarber, too. He crushed four in the first 50 seconds of the semifinal round, two over 440 feet. After a mini-slump, he reached eight before his timeout at 2:04, and 13 with a minute to go. His 19 by the end of regulation set a Derby high, and he added a towering 453-footer at the bonus-time buzzer.

Schwarber quickly got on the board, and while he didn’t hit his second until the 3:10 mark, that began a five-in-a-row streak that included a 448-footer. Losing and then finding his rhythm again, he reached 12 before taking a comparatively late timeout at 1:32. A 446-footer at the 49-second mark, his 14th homer for the round, opened the bonus time, but he was on such a roll that he didn’t need it. As time expired, he hit his 21st homer, the night’s highest score, off the right-field foul pole for the win. Five of his 21 homers went over 440 feet, with a long of 462.

In the other semifinal, Muncy looked completely at ease while clocking four homers in the first minute, but the dingers soon became harder to come by. He took his timeout with seven homers at 1:53, and while he punched four over the next minute, he ran out of gas, never getting a single 440-footer and finishing with just 12.

Harper hit a couple grounders before sneaking a modest 364-footer into the right-field bullpen, but he couldn’t find his groove and didn’t get his fourth homer until 2:28. With his next two, he seized both the bonus and the rhythm. He had 10 homers when he took his timeout at 1:33, and after tying him with a shot off the right-field foul pole, he won it with 1:11 remaining.

In the finals, Schwarber Schwarbed the hell out of his first homer, 453 feet into the upper deck, and ripped five in the first minute before taking his first timeout at 2:50. He added four in the first 40 seconds after the timeout, and reached the bonus before his second timeout at 1:40. Still sending up bombs — four in five swings at one points — he finished regulation at 17 but added just one in the bonus. Eight of his last nine homers were of at least 430 feet, six of them at least 440.

That looked like enough to win. Harper needed 30 seconds to get his first but was stuck on four when he took his first timeout at 2:38, his longest one foot shy of bonus distance. With his father showing signs of fatigue, he didn’t hit his fifth until 2:18, and while he sandwiching a 473-footer and a 453-footer around the two-minute mark, he was stuck on nine when he took his second timeout at 1:20.

Tension. Drama. The hometown hero needed a late rally just to prevent a rout. Coming out of the timeout, Harper had to take a few pitches, and didn’t get his next homer, No. 10, until his father’s sixth pitch, with 48 seconds to go. Then six in a row and eight in the final 38 seconds of regulation, until he connected with what proved to be the tying homer with three seconds remaining.

Who writes this stuff? On the second pitch of the bonus round, he finished the job.

The stakes might have felt higher with some combination of Stanton, Judge, Trout, Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez participating, but that’s no guarantee it would have been as entertaining. Six of the night’s seven pairings were decided by a single homer, five of them with walk-offs and the other with a near-miss on the final drive. It was competitive and compelling and in the end, the guy with all the pressure on him, the one who’s slumping as questions about his free agency swirl around him, staged a comeback that delighted the hometown fans. Hell yes, give me more of this, please.





Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.

30 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Sleepy
8 years ago

Whoever decided to switch to the bracket/timer format deserves a massive raise. As Jay mentioned, it turned the Derby from an “unwatchable slog” into a tidy two-hour ball of fun.

Well done, rando MLB employee. Well done.

scotman144Member since 2016
8 years ago
Reply to  Sleepy

This deserves its own ā€œBud Light Presents: Real American Heroesā€…ā€Here’s to you Mr. Made the HR Derby watchable again guyā€…

Handsome Wes
8 years ago
Reply to  scotman144

Also, the guy who said “we don’t need to have Chris Berman call the action anymore.”

Free Clay Zavada
8 years ago
Reply to  Handsome Wes

BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK

MoateMember since 2022
8 years ago
Reply to  scotman144

They changed that to “True Men of Genius” shortly after 9/11, but the point still stands!

signedepsteinsmother
8 years ago
Reply to  Sleepy

Had not watched it in years, so glad I did!

As impressive as Harper and Schwarber was, Baez was most impressive to me, the ball jumped off his bat, half didn’t look like they’d come close and sailed way out easily.

stever20Member since 2017
8 years ago

MLB has done a lot of things really right lately. The HR Derby format change, the now annual MLB Little League Classic done in Williamsport, and next years game that’s going to be held at Omaha where the College World Series goes on. Not to mention one off things like was it like 2 years ago when the Braves/Marlins played at Ft Bragg?

quinnbg24
8 years ago

Minor issue with the derby last night was the Harper’s pitching before the hits landed – especially noticeable when Bryce needed to hit a bunch quickly to catch Schwarber. They did the same thing last year. Other than that it was highly entertaining and the format change has made the derby great again.

Garyth
8 years ago
Reply to  quinnbg24

They should just drop the ‘ball landing’ rule and let the athletes show their fitness.

JimmyMember since 2019
8 years ago
Reply to  Garyth

That rule is almost certainly meant to protect the children who are already running to shag one ball rather than to enforce some kind of penalty for keeping the ball in the air.

JoserMember since 2021
8 years ago
Reply to  Jimmy

I think it’s also for the benefit of the TV cameras and the announcers. They’re already doing the split-screen thing but right now at least there’s only one ball in flight between them

stever20Member since 2017
8 years ago
Reply to  quinnbg24

Harper wasn’t the only one this was going on with.

Look at the video above with Bregman/Schwarber. 15 second mark of the video. Bregman is swinging at the exact same time that a kid is catching the ball.

TheFightingBurkhardts
8 years ago
Reply to  stever20

I feel like I remember this actually being enforced a few times in the years past, but I’m fine if they stop really caring.

Also, it seemed it was more egregious on clear home runs. That when the ball was more or less over the fence, the next pitch came in.

Do they still have the ump pointing when it is OK to throw again?

JoserMember since 2021
8 years ago

I didn’t watch the whole thing but a couple of times I saw the ump hold up a hand to stop the pitcher while they waited for the ball to land.

deltaclownMember since 2023
8 years ago
Reply to  stever20

So what you’re saying is, this was a massive anti-Schwarber conspiracy!

BenjaminMember since 2019
8 years ago
Reply to  deltaclown

Clearly, the Russians set up Harper to win because they have video footage of him being micturated upon by the Phillie Phanatic, and in his new role as Home Run Derby Champion they have yet one more puppet in Washington, DC.

MoateMember since 2022
8 years ago
Reply to  quinnbg24

It seems like this was happening with all the players. It seems to be more of a gentleman’s rule than a hard enforced restriction. I don’t think there was a single player who didn’t have at least one or 2 balls thrown while others were still in the air. The players all seemed fine with it, so who are we to complain.

More dingers please!

dustin0224
8 years ago
Reply to  quinnbg24

I agree with you and Garyth both. Harper’s dad was definitely throwing the next pitch well before the ball from prior contact landed. I believe someone counted 4 home runs that were hit before the previous batted ball landed, and a few more attempts were made that didn’t clear the fence. Do the rules address what should happen if a contestant does that? Just curious if it’s a “rule” that’s really a suggestion with no consequence if broken or if the umpires actually had discretion to take those home runs away (which they would never do in that situation) and just chose not to. I think it’s kind of a silly rule and should be done away with but it does give an advantage to a hometown player batting last knowing he needs to hit them in a hurry to have any chance. It is just an exhibition and meant to be fun, but anyone watching could tell the contestants were in it to win it and the competitiveness was definitely on display. Regardless of outcome, it was a great show put on by all those involved and I love this format.

tb.25
8 years ago
Reply to  dustin0224

A home plate umpire signals to throw and, if the pitcher throws prior to the landing, calls the pitch as not counting.

Harper’s dad did everything right and within the rules he understood. Blame the home plate ump for either signaling too soon (which we couldn’t see) or not enforcing the rule.

JoserMember since 2021
8 years ago
Reply to  quinnbg24

comment image

WARrior
8 years ago
Reply to  quinnbg24

If Trout had entered, one of his HR would have caught up to and passed his previous HR.

EasyenoughMember since 2016
8 years ago
Reply to  quinnbg24

As mentioned in the piece, it’s funny that the harder and better you hit the ball the fewer pitches you get to see. Maybe the total time could be reduced but time after hitting the ball removed. Takes the ball a long time to go 479 ft.

stever20Member since 2017
8 years ago

It’ll be really interesting going forward to see how last night impacts Harper and the Nationals. Thought it was really interesting the reaction Dave Martinez had with Harper. I really think for the Nationals, last night couldn’t have gone any better.

WARrior
8 years ago

Is the AL going to hold a HR derby tonight? Or do they alternate years?

stever20Member since 2017
8 years ago
Reply to  WARrior

No, just no AL guys wanted to be in there for whatever reason. (except for Bregman)

res
8 years ago

MLB allowing Harper to quick pitch after his second time out certainly increased the drama also.

npurcell8Member since 2017
8 years ago

That kicked ass. At first I thought maybe the 9 outs + bonus ball (or make it 7+1 for time purposes) paired with the bracket format would’ve been perfect, but honestly the clock was great. Anybody who is upset that Harper didn’t obey the totally unnecessary “the ball has to land before you can hit your next homer” rule is lame. Eliminate that rule totally, because watching a guy launch a homer before the last one even lands is amazing.

stever20Member since 2017
8 years ago

so in 3 years of the new format, only 1 guy in those 3 years failed to hit double digits in a round- Robinson Cano in 2016. That was the year Giancarlo Stanton batted first and put up an impossible 24(still a round record in this format).

ScoreboardMember since 2016
8 years ago

While I most certainly enjoyed phrases like “Schwarber Schwarbed the hell out of his first homer” we are in desperate need of some graphs here.

Wouldn’t be much different than the Win Probability ones with x-axis as time and y-axis as the cumulative HRs. You could then add vertical lines at timeouts and 30-second bonus round.

Hank G.Member since 2016
8 years ago

Is there a rule that it has to be a human being doing the pitching? I’m thinking that someone could really do well with a pitching machine, which could be set to deliver the ball at the desired velocity and location nearly every time.