A Mixed Showing for International Rookies

The 2012 MLB season began with a very public bounty of international talent — Japanese stars, Cuban expats and even a Taiwanese surprise. With the season dipping into its final six weeks, we are beginning to see both the good and the bad of these international players who made the direct transition to MLB rookie.

SP Yu Darvish — The biggest star from Japan since Daisuke Matsuzaka has had a very Daisuke Matsuzaka season — much despite steady predictions of the opposite. Well, actually, he has an 86 FIP-minus and 94 xFIP-minus. That’s at least a better FIP than Daisuke’s rookie year, but an identical xFIP.

Dave Cameron has written extensively on Darvish lately, noting Darvish has a command problem, the league has realized Darvish has a command problem, and Darvish has a scary group of command problem comparables.

At the same time, though, Darvish has been adjusting his approach to a less-aggressive (compared to the NPB) league. He has been toying with his repertoire, and I would not be surprised if he entered the 2013 season with a streamlined pitch selection that sets up his elite slider (one of the best in the league) more effectively and simply.

So the Rangers got what will likely end up as 3.0+ WAR from a 25-year-old pitcher. They paid $51.7 million just to speak to Darvish, and prorated across the six-year contract he signed, that means they paid $14.1 million this season. At $5 million per win, that’s still in the black, but Darvish has to improve his sophomore year for the Rangers to not be clogged with regret.

CF Yoenis Cespedes — For all the let down that Darvish has been, Cespedes has been as much of a pleasant surprise — and more. La Potencia has a 140+ wRC+ and also has the makings of a strong center fielder. The Athletics may have meant to sign the Cuban defector and then trade him, but his $36 million, 4-year contract has promptly transmuted into a steal for a surprisingly in-contention A’s team.

His contract exceeded the value I had anticipated Cespedes would get, but so has his production. With almost 2.0 WAR coming from his bat alone, Cespedes does a manly job of challenging the Cuban League is High-A Ball theory. He will be 27 next year and could take over the full-time center fielder job if the A’s find an interested party for Coco Crisp.

OF Norichika Aoki — The Brewers’ signing of Aoki got little fanfare, but Aoki has translated his record as a solid hitter in Japan, meaning the 3-year, $2.25 million signing (with a $1.5 million team option) probably deserved more applause than it received. After starting the season as a bench player, Aoki played his way into full-time duties rather quickly. He now has a 114 wRC+ with 6 homers and 16 steals. It might be tempting to name Kosuke Fukudome as a good comparable, but the 30-year-old Aoki has already shown stronger hitting ability than Fukudome and has nearly matched Kosuke’s rookie 1.6 WAR, despite Aoki having under 400 PA.

And even if Aoki is in fact Fukudome 2.0, let us remember that Fukudome averaged 1.9 WAR over his first three seasons. That’s not bad, and when you take out Fukudome’s $48 million contract and insert Aoki’s Quantity Plus deal, it’s even better.

SP Wei-Yin Chen — The Baltimore Orioles quietly built a vastly improved starting rotation this past offseason, and Wei-Yin Chen has been a big part of that. His FIP does not sparkle (98 FIP-minus), but 2.0 WAR from a 26-year-old rookie lefty is more than acceptable. The Taiwan native signed as a free agent out of the NPB — so no posting fee — and his $10.7 million contract (with a $4.75 million team option) makes him an enviable asset. And, given his youth, he could quite conceivably improve over the next few seasons and surpass Chien-Ming Wang as Taiwan’s greatest MLB star.

SP Tsuyoshi Wada — Wada is the other side of Baltimore coin. Whereas Chen has been a diamond in the rough, Wada has been a roughed up diamond. The 31-year-old lefty had posted some of the NPB’s better numbers over the last few seasons, but he pitched one minor league game in 2012 before exploding and going under the knife for TJ surgery. He signed for a $8.15 million, 2-year contract with Orioles, and he could still be worth $8+ million next season if all goes well, but a 32-year-old rookie coming off TJ surgery and transitioning to a new language and culture could hardly have fewer obstacles.

SS Munenori Kawasaki — I’ll be honest: I follow the NPB as much as a non-Japanese-speaker can, and I was quite surprised to see the Mariners sign Kawasaki. If they wanted a shortstop, Hiroyuki Nakajima was available on the cheap (more on Nakajima later), but instead they went with Kawasaki — who had a 101 wOBA+ in 2011, and who said before negotiations began that he only wanted to sign with the Mariners so he could play with Ichiro Suzuki. Kawasaki has -0.2 WAR, but if he gets summoned to regular duty, I imagine he could improve his 36 wRC+ and play above replacement level. But still, that kind of player was quite available elsewhere, so why not pay something less than $625,000 and try out an infielder younger than 31? Oh well, who can delve into the mind of Mariners leadership? (Dave Cameron can, but he’s intimidating, so why ask him?)

(If nothing else, at least Kawasaki makes the job for us NotGraphs contributors immeasurably easier.)

RP/SP Hisashi Iwakuma — I guess with Iwakuma in the mix, the Mariners are batting .500 — a pop out and a bunt single. Iwakuma signed only a 1-year, $1.5 million deal (with $3.4 million in incentives on top of that). The Athletics wanted him in 2011, and nearly paid a $19 million posting fee to get him, but negotiations collapsed and he then joined the Mariners as a free agent.

Iwakuma is an interesting study. Despite the run-crushing powers of Safeco Field, he has struggled with the home run ball — both home and away (over 20% HR/FB rate). Either way, he has a solid xFIP (96 xFIP-minus — almost the same as Darvish) and has been nails since joining the starting rotation (7 starts, 3.73 ERA and 3.85 xFIP). If the home run problem proves to be more fluke than truth, Iwakuma will make great rotation depth for some other team next year.

SS Hiroyuki Nakajima — The Yankees paid, or almost paid, a $2.5 million posting fee for the rights to negotiate with infielder Hiroyuki Nakajima. But the Yanks wanted Nakajima signed to a multi-year contract to play on the bench, while Nakajima had hoped to be treated, shall we say, at a level more commensurate with his NPB accomplishments.

Well, Nakajima didn’t sign, the Yankees missed their chance at a valuable bench player, and now Nakajima has an .867 OPS (.321/.392/.475 with 11 homers) in a league that sports a combined .658 OPS. He will be a proper free agent in 2013 (no posting fee needed), and if he chooses to make the jump across the big pond again, he could make for a quality, 30-year-old infielder for a team.