A New Jose Quintana Idea
We’ve been waiting for Jose Quintana to get traded for a while now. Chris Sale’s move to Boston signaled the start of a fire sale for the White Sox, and Adam Eaton soon followed him out the door. There were many rumors about a possible trade with the Astros, or perhaps a move to the Bronx. Yet Quintana still currently projects to be the man taking the ball on Opening Day for Chicago. There’s still a few weeks left before camp starts up, and it’s even possible he could move during spring training, as unlikely as it is.
At this rate, however, it looks more and more like Quintana will be moving sometime around the trade deadline. He’s going to be one of the best (if not the best) pitchers available, and he most certainly won’t come cheap. He’s been the seventh-best pitcher in baseball since the start of the 2013 season, and the White Sox are hungry for even more young talent. Anybody looking to acquire him, especially with a trade-deadline surcharge, should be prepared to pony up. The Astros certainly fit this description, but so does another team — a team that hasn’t been bandied about as a possible destination, but certainly has the need and means to trade for him. I’m talking about the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Cardinals are in great position to make a run this year. While the Cubs likely have the division sewn up, St. Louis subtracted Dexter Fowler from Chicago and added him to their squad. They’ve also added Brett Cecil to beef up their bullpen, and they’ll be rolling out most of that same strong lineup. The one suspect area is their rotation. Adam Wainwright isn’t getting any younger, and Michael Wacha’s streak of bumps and bruises isn’t inspiring. Lance Lynn will be coming back from elbow surgery. They’ve added some depth in John Gant, and still have Luke Weaver waiting in the wings as well, but it’s depth that could be chewed through relatively quickly. The Cards are going to want to do everything they can to secure a Wild Card spot, and beefing up their rotation is one of the best ways to do it. We project them for 84 wins, and a little luck could have them on a better trajectory than that come deadline time.
Sure, there will potentially be other pitching options out there. There’s Jeremy Hellickson in Philadelphia, Sonny Gray in Oakland, Ervin Santana in Minnesota, and any one of the handful of starters in Tampa. But Quintana is the cream of the crop given that he’s cheap and under team control for years to come. His contract runs through the 2018 season, with options for 2019 and 2020. His yearly salary will never exceed $12 million during that time. That right there, in addition to his formidable talent, is why he’s going to cost a king’s ransom. He’d also, interestingly enough, be the only healthy lefty starter on their depth chart, with Tyler Lyons out with knee surgery.
The Cards can afford that. The White Sox have largely targeted pitching in their trades of late. Yes, they got Yoan Moncada and Luis Alexander Basabe from Boston, but they also got Michael Kopech, and all three of the players that came over from Washington (Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning) were pitchers. No, the Cardinals probably aren’t going to move Alex Reyes in a deal for Quintana. I’d wager, however, that Weaver would be involved, as would Dakota Hudson, one of their first-rounders from 2016, or Sandy Alcantara, who’s further away from the big leagues than Hudson but has more shine to him. The Cardinals could also presumably throw in a position player like Delvin Perez or Magneuris Sierra to sweeten the deal.
Sheer volume will probably have to be deployed to get a deal done without including Reyes, but it’s likely achievable. Rick Hahn has aimed high in his negotiations, and rightfully so. The White Sox have been admirably deliberate in their incineration of the big-league roster. This isn’t a Marlins-style everything-must-go-immediately sort of affair. Hahn is waiting for the right package, and then pouncing.
St. Louis will need to back up the truck to get this done. But it’ll be worth it. Their rotation is shaky right now, and will be getting even shakier with time. Even as these pitchers age out, the Cards will be looking to their farm to provide prospects that hit on their projections. There haven’t been many better teams than St. Louis at doing just that. But when you can add Jose Quintana and his amazingly team-friendly contract to your roster, you do it. This is especially the case if he provides the added push to put the Cardinals ahead of the Pirates and others in the Wild Card race. In fact, the Pirates may actually find themselves chasing Quintana, too, given the questionable latter half of their rotation and prospect riches. It would behoove St. Louis to keep him from their division rivals.
It would be shocking if the Cardinal rotation makes it to the end of July unscathed. Pitching injuries happen roughly every three milliseconds, and as I outlined above, the Cards are is going to get hit at some point. Quintana has logged 200 innings for four years in a row now. He fits their team beautifully. If they can get a deal done before Opening Day, they should do it. If they can get a deal done in-season, they should do it.
If you’re a Giants fan, or a Pirates fan, or a Mets fan, or a Rockies fan (or a Cubs fan, for that matter), you don’t want this to happen. If you’re a Cardinals fan, you should be salivating. This trade may very well be possible.
Nick is a columnist at FanGraphs, and has written previously for Baseball Prospectus and Beyond the Box Score. Yes, he hates your favorite team, just like Joe Buck. You can follow him on Twitter at @StelliniTweets, and can contact him at stellinin1 at gmail.
I hear what your saying, but literally sell the farm to be a perennial WC contender for at least the next half decade as the Cubs have the division locked?
So the rest of the NL Central should just pack it in for the next half decade?
No, but trading long term value to get to 88 wins is pretty foolish. Might as well stay at 84 and play for WC.
Who said pack it in?
Trading some combination of your number 2, 3, 5, 6 and 9 prospects for a pitcher only to keeps you in the same position you’re already in (WC contender) doesn’t seem to be the best use of resources.
I’d like to place a wager that the Cubs do not win their division each of the next five years.
I agree. The Cubs will certainly be strong contenders over the next five years, but to win it all five years is not likely.
For sure this is true. Even if you believe the Cubs are 90% to win the division each year (which is crazy especially 4-5 years out), they’re almost 50-50 to not win all 5 years.
That doesn’t mean that any given team (such as the Cardinals) has a good chance to win in any specific year. Put another way, you can pick any NL Central team other than the Cubs and any year 2017-2021, and I’ll let you bet at 4:1 on them winning the division.
I will take that wager @ +500
So, every other team which is in discussions with the white sox for quintana has to give up their #1 but the holy cards do not? Shake your head man…
The Reds already got you beat there.
I have a hard time believing that the Cubs have the division ‘on lock’ for the next half decade. While they clearly are the most talented team, that does not preclude the Cardinals from contending (or even winning) the NL Central. It was just two years ago that the Nationals were the paper champions of the NL East, but it was the Mets that ended up in the World Series. Windows for contention should be determined by the makeup of a team’s roster, and not who their competition is.
I’m not saying that every single prospect I named would (or should) be in the package, and maybe there’s a big league piece in there too. But the Cards are one big pitcher away from being Pretty Good. And they should make an effort to get there. This isn’t a situation where they MUST do this, more throwing an idea out there than anything else.
I don’t think anyone disputes adding Quintana would be great idea for Cardinals. Problem is his absurdly great contract makes it a great idea for lots of teams hence high demand. And if one believes the rumors about alleged offers and demands it seems questionable to suggest one team can get him with a much lighter package than ones that have ALLEGEDLY been already turned down.
I heartily agree with you, Nick, but I hope the Cardinals do not as the Cubs, Pirates and Giants are among my favorite teams.
Don’t know why people are down voting this unless they’re Cardinals fans or take this 100% literally. We ALL talked in July about the foolishness of making a big move to improve your chances at the wild card play-in.
Obviously the Cubs aren’t even a lock in 2017. But the Cardinals would be making themselves better in the 2017-2019 time frame during which they’re significantly behind the Cubs and weakening themselves for 2020-2022 when the Cubs will have come back to the pack. As I Cubs fan, I’d be happy if they made this trade.
The Cardinals are 10%/40% to win the division/wild card this year (I pulled that out of my *ss) and maybe 18%/40% in 2018. Adding Quintana makes it 12%/65% and 22%/60% — they’re still a long way behind the Cubs but go from average WC contender to best WC contender.
For sure the Cardinals and Pirates (and Giants and Mets) shouldn’t give up, but they should recognize with the current playoff structure and team “talent” levels, adding 3-4 wins barely moves the needle.
if you’re going to make a big move solely to improve WC chances (not that this is necessarily the case), isn’t a Frontline starting pitcher to take that WC start the best addition you can make?
What are the odds you slide into the WC with enough breathing room that you can arrange your rotation that way? Historically not great I think.
the prospects you mention wouldn’t be close to getting a deal done. Look what they apparently turned down from Astros and what they were pushing Pirates for. They would have to definitely involve Perez. But Weaver, Hudson, and Hudson not getting it done. Weaver, Hudson, Sierra and Perez might not get it done.
This too, they seem to be asking for top 20 prospects plus more.
Reyes has to be included for Chicago to seriously consider a deal, I would think.
I’m a Cubs fan and I absolutely want this to happen. The Cards gutting their farm so that they can finish 8 games back instead of 12 would be wonderful.
Sounds like Mark Mulder Trade v2. No thank you lol. That said, if the defensive fortification doesn’t turn out as they planned and they are in the hunt around the trade deadline, I could see this happening.
Nah, they’ll regret not taking a package fronted by Bell and Glasnow.
Then again, Jerry DiPoto seems willing to deal just about anything that isn’t nailed down.
No way the Bucs are offering both, if they were it would be done.
They’re not going to part with Meadows. However, a Bell plus Glasnow package wouldn’t come as a surprise.
Who is John Gant?
The Sox should package Nate Jones with Quintana for a package that includes Alex Reyes.
ChiSox already got a bunch of pitching prospects in the deals this winter. It’s understandable that they would want a package fronted by position players in subsequent deals.
The White Sox farm system is so thin, they don’t need to be picky about prospects. My guess they’re in get-the-best-players-available mode, and it just happens that they were pitchers.
Well part of why they are “thin” is their top prospects are mostly RHPs, other than Moncada and Collins, so targeting or hoping that a package for Qunitana includes some impact position players is reasonable. For example, if a deal had two “headliners” both do not need to be position players but one should. I don’t think that this would prevent any potential deals from being done.
The Cardinals don’t have “impact position players” to trade, unless Chicago wants an old Carpenter or St. Louis wants to move Grichuk.
It’s not thin anymore.
They now have 4 of the top 50 prospects in baseball by MLB’s list – including #1 and #3. Problem is, 3 of those guys are pitchers and their next best prospect is too. Other orgs probably envy their pitching prospects. They still need quality position players and they may not have the overall depth of other organizations, but it is no longer fair to call the system “thin” or to imply they are desperate. They are, at worst, solidly in the middle of the pack.
You’re right. They were thin. Old habits die hard, I guess.
The Cardinals do not have any premium position player prospects. The Sox should and will prefer actually good prospects over positional need.
I’m not sure what the standard for “premium” is, but they do have the #1 Catcher prospect. I’d think they may not be inclined to move him with an aging Yadi, but you never know.
When did they get Francisco Mejia?
Nate Jones is a stud reliever under control for a while for cheap. Relievers are crazy overpriced right now. They’d be better off trading him on their own.
Quintana’s contract is worth as much as Sale’s, which netted the (arguably) top prospect in baseball. The package proposed in this article is light.
The more logical trade is Frazier for Peralta + (Bader or Weaver). If the Cards aren’t moving Carpenter back to 3B, no reason to have a black hole there. Immediate two win upgrade for no additional cash.
how are you getting an immediate 2 win upgrade? Projections have peralta -> Frazier as about a 1 win upgrade
I feel like STL has some assumption that between Peralta bouncing back, and Gyorko, they can cobble together Frazier-like production.
Value is relative, and a stud reliever to non-contending team isn’t as valuable as it is to a contending team.
I think the Sox should try to get an org’s best prospect(s) as opposed to separate packages of lesser prospects.
I think the Sox have made it clear what they expect for Q. A deal would be not as good as the Sale deal but better than the Eaton deal. Regardless if one thinks that is reasonable or not, I don’t think the package mentioned in this article would be good enough.
The Eaton deal may have been better than the Sale deal.
The Eaton deal may have been better in terms of the value they got back relative to what was given up.
This is a really weak package for Quintana, imo. Reports have the Sox trying to get Bell+Meadows+ from Pittsburgh. Law has Meadows as the 9th best prospect in the game and Bell as #14. You’re suggesting the Cards send over Weaver (who’s tagged with a 3rd starter ceiling here: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/12/15/13972006/st-louis-cardinals-top-20-prospects-for-2017), a back of the rotation/reliever in Hudson, and one or two guys who’re 2020 or later ETAs will get Quintana instead? Only if the Cards know Hahn’s password, too.
The relative strength of any trade package offered by St. Louis heavily depends on who you ask.
You cite John Sickels’ analysis of Luke Weaver, but you seriously misquote Sickels — he does NOT state that Luke Weaver has #3 starter *upside*. (If he did, Sickels wouldn’t have recently ranked Weaver the #20 overall prospect in all of baseball.) He instead makes #3 starter the *likeliest* outcome.
Also, the post directly beneath this one mentions that Delvin Perez “is not ranked yet.” But Keith Law just named him #61 overall, and named catcher Carson Kelly #51. (MLB.com lists Kelly as the #1 catching prospect in baseball.)
Pitcher Jack Flaherty is a top 100 type per Law, and Law also likes teenage righty Junior Fernandez and his mid-90’s heat quite a lot. (Still just 19 and he’s already pitched at Low and High-A.) In fact, Law places Sandy Alcantara and his 95-97 FB behind both Flaherty & Fernandez, even though he asserted that Alcantara has “ace upside” in a recent Klawchat.
Also having “ace upside” is Dakota Hudson, per both Longenhagen here, and Rob Ozga. But according to Baseball Prospectus, young righty Jordan Hicks is better than either of the aforementioned Flaherty or Fernandez — whom you might recall were supposed to be better than “ace upside” arm Alcantara.
Lastly, outfielder Harrison Bader is for all intents and purposes exactly the same player as Clint Frazier, so wherever Frazier is ranked, that’s where Bader should logically be ranked, and therefore very likely IS ranked internally by some of the more observant organizations.
Of course, all of this is irrelevant if the ChiSox are holding out for Alex Reyes. I’d trade Reyes in a package for Q if I were St. Louis, but I wouldn’t sweeten the deal beyond Reyes very much. With Molina behind the plate, Reyes’ immediate future is brighter than it might otherwise be. Which is why the Cardinals aren’t trading Reyes unless Mike Trout is available.
So was that longer than the Gettysburg Address? Too bad I wasn’t talking about the fine Padres farm system, then it could’ve been the Michael Gettysburg Address. Yes, it’s very late.
I dont see a way of getting this done without Reyes. Pure quantity is not going to get it done. And after Reyes the cards system is just bad.yeah getting the cards 2 to 5 prospects sounds nice but the second cards prospect weaver is rated 81 by mlb.com, Bader is ranked 83 and Perez is not ranked yet.
Does anyone really think top 80 prospects get it done? Even if you rank Perez top60 or so the package is still not great.
Q. is not going without a consensus top20 prospect as a headliner.
Of course the cards could do it but I doubt they want to lose Reyes which would be needed. The cards simply don’t have the depth in top50 prospects to get it done without a big headliner.
The Cards system definitely lacks star potential close to the majors outside of Reyes, but there are decent players almost major league ready and a lot of high upside players who are further off like Alcantara, Fernandez, and Perez. I think that a package of Weaver, Bader, Flaherty, and Perez would be enough to get it done, although as a Cardinals fan, I would really like to see them keep Perez as he is the type of position player prospect the team hasn’t had for a long time.
Marlins as a sleeper candidate.
Marlins trade conley, garrett, deitrich, Anderson and kolek.
White Sox trade quintana and Dan Jennings.
Lol
Lol what?
Lol is what Rick Hahn would do after receiving that trade proposal
You are seriously under rating that package. 2 average mlb players with 5 years of control, a 55 fv in braxton garrett, and Anderson and kolek who are the ceiling portion.
Jose Quintana has been quietly solid and underrated for years, I’ll give you that. But he’s still not as good as this article makes him out to be.
Alex Reyes MUST be included in a deal for Quintana or it is not going to happen. The Cardinals simply do not have another young player with close to as much value as Reyes.
Carlos Martinez is conveniently absent in your discussion of the Cardinals’ purportedly weak rotation.
I think the presumption was that Martinez is the one piece in the rotation that can be counted on to last the season, inasmuch as a pitcher can ever be expected to last a season w/o injury.
I think Jose Quintana at that kind of price makes sense for like 20 mlb teams
Weaver, Kelly, Perez, and Bader and it’s much more likely
Come july, some of the contenders with aging/fragile pitching might be a bit more willing to overpay for Quintana. And the ChiSox have a core competency in keeping pitchers healthy so waiting out the market for 3 months is less of a risk for them.
Regardless if they probably will project to be behind the Cubs in most of the next 5 years – baseball – I think it is safe to say the Cards have proved to be one of the few teams in the category/mode of a Perennial Win Now Team.
Any deal should add not subtract from the their current projections. As, say, Boston did with the Sale deal; also a Perennial Win Now Team. That, is going to be the tough part….
All this said, maybe the best way to sweeten the deal would be to include talent from the Scouting, Hacking and Player Development staff.
…what?
That package PLUS Reyes wouldn’t get Hahn to pick up the phone.
I’m not sure Reyes+Weaver+Piscotty gets it done.
The only contenders with the juice to get Quintana, right now, are the Pirates, Yankees, Mets and Dodgers.
Maybe the Nats, if they include Turner, or the Sox, if they include one of the Bs.
Let’s start by comparing Quintana to Sale. Sale has a crazy deal for 3/38 with the last 2 years being club options, while Quintana has 4/36 with 2 club options. If you value Sale at 6 wins per year, that’s 18 wins for $38 million under your control. Putting Quintana at 4.5 wins per year, that’s also 18 wins for $36 million.
So the difference in value between these two should really be the sum of:
1. The market discount (if any) than Hahn will have to take for being in clear fire-sale mode vs. the time of the Sale deal.
2. The Dombrowski deal premium (real, but not as big as on the Kimbrel trade)., and
3. Any “sexiness” discount for Quintana vs. Sale.
The more I think about, the more I agree Hahn should wait out for something like he’s asked from the Pirates, which is less than the Red Sox package but still more than what Nicolas proposed for St. Louis. I just don’t see a Cards package adding up to that level without involving Reyes.
You left out the biggest difference in value, the surplus is spread over less time with sale, I.e. he is better and therefore more of an upgrade.
Or you’re leaving out a major difference in value – Quintana’s much lower AAV, and additional year of team control.
I doubt the Cardinals can put together a good enough package, period.
One that excludes Reyes would get them laughed off the phone.
This a terrible thought process. You are strictly looking at surplus value over the life of the contract, Which is roughly even, fair.
Surplus/year is a much better way at looking at this considering we are talking about win now teams and players with 3 and 4 years of control respectively. Also remember these are pitchers, if one goes down that total surplus valuation is screwed. These teams will value the additional value/year.
I’m not dismissing the fact that they offer about the same surplus, I believe it’s just much more important to place the emphasis on the better player in a win now position. Something like weighting it 70/30.
Also you seriously think only 5 teams have enough to get him?
Cubs(happ/ jiminez headliners)
Mariners( some combo of zunino, paxton, lewis, o’neil wouldn’t get it done?)
Indians( if I was sox this is Who I would talk to, mejia, meckenzie, allen, and Diaz and the white Sox include Dan Jennings is super sexy time for the white Sox but I’m super high on those guys)
These are just the top contenders idk if you were including the rays, jays, o’s, tigers etc.
The reality is it comes down to the Sox evaluation of the talent. For instance my Indians package didn’t mention zimmer, mainly because I’m lower on him( as well as him being near ready and potentially serving as a depth option for them).
You think Surplus/year favors Sale?
Quintana’s making $6m less than Sale next year, $4m less in 2018, $3m less in 2019 and only $10.5m in 2020…and he has more RA9-WAR over the last two years than Sale.
Good call on the Cubs (although they might have to throw in Baez over Happ)…but how big of a Mariners fan are you?
Zunino and Paxton offer the same amount of team control as Quintana.
Zunino is a 26 year old catcher with a sub-80 wRC+ in 1250 PA.
Paxton is 3 months older than Quintana, and has never exceeded 180 IP in a single season.
Neither would move the needle for Quintana.
So they’re left with 2 prospects in the 20-40 range, one of whom is coming off a torn ACL, and the other of whom has serious swing and miss concerns.
The Indians would have to build their package around Jose Ramirez, because, like the Mariners, they lack a true top end prospect, but they could get it done.
I should have put more emphasis on the better player part.
Quintana has never been worth more fwar than sale in any season and projects worse for a reason.
I’m a cubs fan hence the name, no skin in the Mariners game. Just recognize paxton has the potential for a lot more, to put it simply no one would be shocked if he is a top 20 pitcher next year with his stuff. Durability concerns for sure, which is why others are included( side note could care less about age, we aren’t talking about a low minors prospect or an over the hill veteran and he had t.j.) zunino catches, pretty low bar for offense especially if including framing, legit piece. I was just pointing out some of potential headliners, other stuff to mix and match would be needed.
To me Mejia is a top 20 prospect in baseball, think wilson contreras with more hit and less pop. (converted twitchy catchers with huge arms learning nuances of receiving). I also have McKenzie in the top 50. Like I said I’m high on them.
I get quintana is valuable, all the names I mentioned prove that. Sale is pretty clearly more valuable to me, as are the ml pieces I mentioned, you mention baez, to me You just prove paxtons value there.
Whether or not you care about age, team control matters. Neither Zunino nor Paxton have more of it than Quintana…and Quintana has been worth significantly more over the last two years than Zunino and Paxton have accrued in their combined careers.
And the issue with Zunino is that he doesn’t meet, or come particularly close to meeting, the extremely low offensive bar for catching.
They are not in any way, shape or form “headliners” in a deal for a player of Quintana’s caliber.
The Mariners, like the Cardinals, don’t have anywhere near enough juice to get Quintana.
Basically…Quintana is terrifyingly valuable, and will continue to be roughly that valuable for another year and a half.
They don’t need to trade him for anything that doesn’t utterly blow them away, like the Red Sox and Nationals did.
I don’t think a deal gets done without including Reyes, and St. Louis simply won’t give him up, nor should they. If the White Sox are willing to take some quantity over pure quality, other teams could jump into the fray and beat out St. Louis’ offer, as St. Louis’ non-Reyes prospects aren’t so great. There are some high ceilings, but top guys like Delvin Perez and Sandy Alcantara are gonna take a few years to get to the majors; why should the White Sox gamble on them reaching their potential when other teams could offer more major league-ready guys?
I personally thought St. Louis should have re-tooled this year and went all-in on the 2018 free agency super-buffet. Their team was decent enough to compete for a WC spot without Dexter Fowler, and Fowler barely increases their NLC chances. They clearly want to add a star player (as seen by their offers to Price and Heyward), so why not just save Dexter’s cash and go get a superstar guy, such as Manny Machado, when he’s available? I’m not saying to rebuild (a team that relies so much on ticket revenue can’t really “rebuild”), but make incremental upgrades, get your team to the 83-85 win range, and hope for a bit of luck (or some growth from “MPH off-the-bat” studs like Grichuk and Pham) until the superstar players are released into the wild. Then, you can REALLY compete with the Cubs.
Agreed, on most of it. I’m sort of surprised no-one has suggested there’s at least a decent possibility that Reyes turns into a Quintana-level pitcher, as early as this year, making a Reyes + trade for him ridiculous.
There’s also a decent chance he ends in the bullpen still.
You think Reyes is gonna put up almost 5 wins as soon as this year? Can he even throw enough innings to get there? He’s only projected for about 120 and i really don’t see the cards just turning him lose to throw ~200 this year.
That’s because 22 year olds with control problems don’t immediately become Quintana-level pitchers.
And I fucking LOVE Alex Reyes.
I think those examples you give are a reason why they might not take that approach. You put all your eggs in the machado (or insert whichever top tier FA) and then you miss out on them for whatever reason and you are left with nothing.
With this, they now know they have a dexter like player.