A Petit Lesson in Rating Prospects

Arizona’s Yusmeiro Petit is an interesting pitcher. New York Mets fans will recognize his name as a former top prospect with the organization before he was traded to the Florida Marlins, along with first baseman Mike Jacobs and infielder Grant Psomas, for veteran first baseman Carlos Delgado in November of 2005. Petit was then flipped to Arizona in March 2007 for reliever Jorge Julio.

The right-hander, a Venezuela native, was originally signed as a non-drafted free agent by the Mets in 2001. He spent some time honing his skills in Latin America before coming over to play in Rookie ball in 2003 at the age of 18. Petit turned heads by allowing only 6.82 H/9, 1.16 BB/9 and posting a rate of 9.44 K/9. He even earned a late-season, two-game promotion to the New York Penn League.

He really got noticed in 2004 when, as a 19 year old, he started out in full-season ball in the South Atlantic League. In 15 starts, Petit posted rates of 5.10 H/9, 2.39 BB/9 and a dazzling 13.23 K/9. He was promoted to High-A ball in the Florida State League where he made another nine starts and posted rates of 5.48 H/9, 2.84 BB/9 and 12.59 K/9. He also made two late season starts in Double-A and posted similar rates, although the hits were a little higher, as were the walks. On the season, in just under 140 innings, Petit struck out 200 batters.

Right about now, like Mets fans at the time, you are probably beginning to salivate at the thought of a young, hard-throwing phenom, yes? Well the thing about Petit is that he throws in the upper-80s and doesn’t have any one pitch that will wow you. Frankly, no one really understood how he struck out so many batters… although he did have above-average command and some deception in his delivery. But most scouts agreed on one thing: It probably would not last. And it didn’t.

Petit spent most of 2005 in Double-A where he made 21 starts and posted rates of 6.88 H/9, 1.38 BB/9 and 9.94 K/9. In two late season starts in Triple-A, he posted a 9.20 ERA and allowed 14.73 H/9. He was rated the second best prospect in the Mets system by Baseball America. The Mets then sold high on Petit in the off-season with the trade to Florida.

The next season in Triple-A, he posted rates of 9.40 H/9, 1.86 BB/9 and 6.33 K/9. In 15 games at the major league level, including one start, Petit posted a 9.57 ERA. He allowed 15.72 H/9. He was then sent to Arizona in the off-season.

Petit pitched respectably in 17 starts for Triple-A Tucson and also held his own in the majors. In 14 games, 10 starts, he posted rates of 9.16 H/9, 2.84 BB/9 and 6.32 K/9. OK numbers, but nothing like the eye-bulging rates he was posting as a 19-year-old in A-ball. So far in 2008, Petit has been on the shuttle between Triple-A and the majors, which may very well be his future. Although he is still only 23, Petit’s stuff and recent numbers would suggest he is a pretty good Triple-A pitcher and an OK 12th or 13th pitcher on a major league staff.

The lesson for today is this: Stats are great, but sometimes you just have to trust the scouting report.





Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.

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Dave Evams
15 years ago

I think this post will bite you in the butt a bit in the future. Although Petit got rocked in his first major league stint, that sample size was almost as small as his recent 2.28 FIP stint in AAA. I agree he will never live up to his early minor league numbers, but a solid number 3 starter is probably more likely than an average 12th or 13th bullpen man. If they do keep him in the pen, I would say he ends up as an above average setup man within 2 years. I haven’t really justified everything I am saying because I don’t want to type a page right now, but I just thought I’d get it out there that within a couple years you will probably see that your ok 12th man in the pen projection is pretty far off.