A Playoffs Overview

by
August 10, 2010

In less than two months the regular season will come to a close and the postseason will begin. In each of the past three seasons we’ve had teams go to game 163 in order to decide a tiebreaker. Frankly, those win or go home games rank right up there with some of the best games in recent memory. Whether it be the controversial Padres/Rockies finish in 2007, or the White Sox and Twins in 2008, or even the Tigers and Twins last season; each came down to being decided by a single run. The way the standings are shaping up right now, we might be in store for another tiebreaking game or two.

AL West

You can all but call this race. Baseball Prospectus has the Rangers at 92% likely to make the playoffs. The Angels and Athletics spit the remaining ~8% of simulations, but right now the Rangers hold the league’s largest divisional lead (8 games) which is more than five times the next closest. It really is hard to see the Athletics or Angels make a legitimate push for the crown and a lot would have to happen for Texas to miss the postseason.

AL East

The Yankees are the next surest thing, at 87%. Tampa Bay is on their heels (80%) and Boston isn’t dead quite yet (25%) meaning, unlike Texas, it’s possible to imagine the Yankees not winning the division crown at this point. The goal for these teams need not be much more than to finish in the top two of the division and assume second place guarantees a wild card berth…

AL Central

…which makes this race all the more vicious. The Twins and White Sox are tied for first place at this point. Most would probably give the edge to the Twins, but the White Sox always find a way to surprise everyone. The only wild card involved will be whether Kenny Williams can work some magic on the waiver wire.

NL East

Believe it or not, the Braves are projected to make the playoffs more often than any other National League team despite having an identical win total to that of the Reds and Padres (and Giants). Their lead over the Phillies is slight, but this Phillies team that has Mike Sweeney and Wilson Valdez starting on the right side of the infield most days isn’t too inspiring, even if they have beat up on Florida and New York since losing Ryan Howard.

NL Central

With last night’s defeat, the Reds’ lead over the Cardinals is down to a game and a half. This very well could be the most difficult race to call in the entire league.

NL West

The Padres might be baseball’s best story this year and they still have the division lead and a 76% shot at the playoffs. The Giants, though, are breathing down their necks, with an equal number of wins and three extra defeats. If the season ended today, both would be in the postseason.





 

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Pat
13 years ago

Is this ESPN or FanGraphs? Real strong analysis….

Especially fair analysis of the Phillies, ignoring the fact that they have the top 1-2-3 in the game and are getting Victorino back this week and utley/howard set to return within a few weeks. To say theyre not the best team in the NL when healthy is a joke.

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Kevin S.
13 years ago
Reply to  Pat

The Phillies are 15th in batting WAR and 12th in pitching WAR. You don’t just waive that away with “Oh, they’ve had injuries.”

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Pat
13 years ago
Reply to  Kevin S.

I think you can say that injuries had a significant impact on this season, yes. The 2-month Utley-Valdez/Dobbs dropoff has cost them 2 wins alone. Then there’s howard/victorino/polanco/ruiz/lidge/madson/etc.

You can also consider the fact that they added Oswalt and also experienced an extended hitting slump (almost 2 months) that has hurt their overall batting WAR.

I’ll take my chances with the Phils.

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Pat
13 years ago
Reply to  Kevin S.

If you’re going to go with 4 months of this lineup’s hitting stats rather than the last 3 years, then yes, they are a mediocre offense.

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CircleChange11
13 years ago
Reply to  Kevin S.

A good Comparison …

2004 Stl: 105-57
2005 Stl: 100-62
2006 Stl: 83-78

What’s the BIG difference between these 3 seasons … injuries.

2006 Injuries …
Pujols (2nd in MVP) – 1 month
Eckstein (SS) – 1 month
Mulder (#2 SP) – 1/2 Year/Season
Edmonds (CF) 40 G
Isringhausen (CP) – 1 month/season

The folks that are talking as if injuries don’t matter are crazy (Mets anyone?). Staying healthy is likely THE most important thing in winning a division. Haven’t the Phils had the best lineup in the NL for the past 2 years? Isn’t Chase Utley the most “WAR-valuable” player in the NL?

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Kevin S.
13 years ago
Reply to  Kevin S.

I was hardly claiming that injuries don’t matter – I was saying that it’s not *just* injuries. Raul Ibanez came down with a bad case of old age. Jimmy Rollins apparently fell victim to the same curse of the 20/20/20/20 season Curtis Granderson did. The back end of the rotation is a serious liability (although I did forget to add Oswalt to the pitchers’ WAR total). And let’s be honest, it’s not like the Braves haven’t had their injury issues either. Jair Jurrjens missed significant time. Jason Heyward was out for a while. Martin Prado is still on the shelf.

0
neuter_your_dogma
13 years ago
Reply to  Kevin S.

As of 8/10, PECOTA has the Braves and Phillies in a dead heat (64%). PECOTA doesn’t like the Padres (37%).

0
twinsfan
13 years ago
Reply to  Pat

I will patiently await your community blog entry.

1
Bando
13 years ago
Reply to  Pat

Even at their best (2009) the Phillies were a 93 win team. The Braves are on pace for better than that this year AND have had their own fair share of big injuries. So, sorry this site isn’t ESPN and the site’s authors won’t act like the Phillies are the greatest thing in the world when they aren’t this year.

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Philsandthrills
13 years ago
Reply to  Bando

If you think 2009 was somehow the Phillies at their best, then you weren’t paying attention. Healthiest, perhaps, but best, certainly not. Jimmy Rollins, Brad Lidge, and Cole Hamels all had significant down years, more than balancing out a hot year by Ibanez.
Happ had a fluky year, yes, but for most of that summer, the phillies were stuck with starting scrubs like Andrew Carpenter, Rodrigo Lopez, and Antonio Bastardo. And again, that closer spot led to a combined 17(!!!) blown saves from Lidge and Ryan Madson. All I’m trying to say is, certainly, 93 wins isn’t really anywhere near the ceiling for the Phillies.

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CaptainSweet
13 years ago
Reply to  Bando

Remember Philly fans, last year was your chance- you could have won a second WS and you would have forever eclipsed the Braves dynasty of the 90’s. But you didn’t, and now you are just a mediocre bunch of shmoes whining about what could have been and vomiting on each other when given the chance. I cannot knock your commitment- your attendance shows that your are a dedicated bunch. But I speak for all of the east coast when I say that your fans are classless dickbrains who deserve nothing. And nothing is what ye shall get!

-4
Bando
13 years ago
Reply to  Bando

2010 is not their best, 2009 apparently wasn’t their best (despite being their highest regular season win total), maybe 2008 was their best when they won the World Series but would still have finished behind the 2010 regular season pace of the Braves. Ever consider the “ceiling” you envision the Phillies having is all in your head? Injuries are part of the game, after all, and results are what matter when talking about a playoff race. Not what you wish your team was like.

0
DavidCEisen
13 years ago
Reply to  Bando

Nothing says classy like calling people dickbrains.

If the Phillies are a team of injured, mediocre shmoes,the Braves must be a team of healthy, slightly less than mediocre shmoes–or else they wouldn’t be in a dead heat for 1st.

2
Sophist
13 years ago
Reply to  Bando

Don’t see the Braves winning more than 90 games.

first 22 games: 8-14, 3.68 R/G
next 48 games: 34-14 5.48 R/G
last 43 games: 23-20 3.91 R/G

This isn’t intended as a rigorous analysis, but the Braves just strike me as a team that played over its head offensively for a stretch and will play around .500 the rest of the way (mostly because of their pitching). They’re on pace for 93 but they’ve been barely playing +.500 ball for awhile now.

On top of that Medlen is on the DL and Venters has appeared in just about every game this year (hyperbole). Wagner has been one the game’s best closers (behind Soria, Bell), but he’s been less effective of late (Mets and Phillies fans can tell you what happens to him in a pennant race). Hudson has a gap between his ERA and xFIP/SIERA.

Back of the envelope prediction: Braves win less than 90 games this year.

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Kevin S.
13 years ago
Reply to  Bando

An equally non-scientific counter to that would be the Bravos having one of the easiest closing schedules in baseball.

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Sophist
13 years ago
Reply to  Bando

Not sure that’s equally unscientific. I’d at least want to know how it compares to their playoff rivals. Can’t imagine the Phillies schedule is much different given the emphasis on late-season intra-divisional play.

Well, I looked it up. Location and off days aside, here are the *differences* between the two:

– PHI has 2 more game against the Dodgers / ATL 2 more against the Rockies
– PHI has 2 more games against the Mets / ATL 2 more games against the Marlins
– PHI has 3 against MIL / ATL has 3 against PIT
– PHI has 4 against HOU / ATL has 4 against STL, 1 more against HOU
– PHI has 3 against SF and SD / ATL has 3 against CHC and PIT
– Same number of games against the Nationals

Pretty similar.

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ThomasF
13 years ago
Reply to  Bando

The Braves also have more home games left than the Phils, and both teams show a strong home-field advantage. Which puts the Phils 4 wins (also known as 1.5 wins less than Cliff Lee has already generated this season) behind the Braves at the end of the season.

Braves Phillies
Current Wins 65 62
Home Games Remaining 27 25
Road Games Remaining 22 25
Home Winning Percentage 72% 64%
Road Winning Percentage 44% 46%
Total Expected Wins 94 90

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E Dub
13 years ago
Reply to  Bando

@Eisen, I assumed that Captain Sweet was simply putting things in terms which Philly fans could understand, the lingua phranca if you will. Classy or no on the captain’s part, they are dickbrains, and I say that without malice or rancor.

1
Ivdown
13 years ago
Reply to  Bando

Saberfury

You obviously weren’t paying attention to Cole Hamels if you think he had a significant down year in 2009. He was almost exactly the same from 2008 to 2009, except his ERA was worse…oh NO!!!!!

1
hank
13 years ago
Reply to  Bando

Check the pitch mix and watch games and look at how effective his curveball was in’09 (shakes head as once again people assume similar FIP means ERA variation is luck without checking secondary effects)… Perhaps people being able to ignore his curveball and just sit on a fatsball (which he was throwing 5% more) and change had something to do with his BABIP and ERA going up? His curve in ’09 was no where near as effective (and thrown less frequently) than in ’08. If you prefer to analyze baseball purely through aggregate statistics, a check of pitch type %’s will verify what should have been painfully obviously watching him pitch.

If I had a nickel for every time a Phils fan talked about Hammels bad luck in 2009, I could send it to Amaro and they might have been able to retain Cliff Lee.

-1
Kevin S.
13 years ago
Reply to  Bando

Hank, it wasn’t just FIP similarities. His batted-ball types were almost identical. His K and BB rates barely moved. Pitch F/x indicated that his velocity and movement on his pitches were very similar. The ONLY thing that was any different at all was his BABIP. Why is it so hard to accept that he got hit with some shitty luck, especially since it’s impossible to find that he did anything different at all.

1
hank
13 years ago
Reply to  Bando

Again – you can’t look at simple aggregate stats. Look at his pitch mix #’s and tell me they were the same.

Or you could try watching some games and notice when he had a good curveball, he was generally good, when he didn’t he was bad. (Think world series game).

So when his fastball % goes from 54% to 59% and his curveball % from 13% to 10%… that is the “same” in your view? The pitch F/x is aggregate data that lacks context… a 90mph fastball when a guy can threaten you with a curve is one thing, a 90mph fastball when you can ignore the curve is another.

People really need to start watching games…. perhaps the BABIP was higher because hitters were worried about 2 pitches instead of 3? This BABIP variation = luck is getting ridiculous, sometimes it’s not about luck.

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Hide
13 years ago
Reply to  Bando

@Bando

You stated 4 pieces of factual statements:
1) The Phillies posted a 93-win 2009 regular season.
2) The Braves are on pace for >93-win 2010 regular season.
3) The Braves have had injuries this season.
4) This site is not EPSN.

Hopefully you DO realise that none of these facts when construed separately/together would lead to a logical deduction/prediction that the Braves will definitely win the East this season.

In case you don’t, here’s why:
1) Just because the Braves are ‘on pace’ for >93 wins doesn’t mean they will definitely get there.
2) It simply cannot be concluded that Phillies will not win the East EVEN IF the Braves win >93 games.

Besides, why does 2009 have to be their best season? You disagree with 2008, but why can’t it be 2010? Or 201x?

In fact, why are you isolating this particular 162-games segment as Phillies ‘[e]ven at their best’? It is easy to compare seasons by calender years, but the period and the # of games you have chosen to base your argument on sounds pretty arbitrary.

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Hide
13 years ago
Reply to  Bando

@hank

You have made a solid argument that Hamels’ improvement is a result of a better curve. However, this does not directly disprove the theory that Hamels had been ‘unlucky’ with BABIP last season.

Do you think his elevated ERA could be a result of both factors (and maybe other factors as well)?

Also, just out of curiosity, since you are obviously scoffing at the ‘luck’ argument, what are your views on the effects of his better curve on his FIP and xFIP?

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Hide
13 years ago
Reply to  Bando

Agree with CaptainSweet’s comments.

Everyone should read his post for an in-depth statistical analysis of that pennant race.

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