A Playoffs Overview
In less than two months the regular season will come to a close and the postseason will begin. In each of the past three seasons we’ve had teams go to game 163 in order to decide a tiebreaker. Frankly, those win or go home games rank right up there with some of the best games in recent memory. Whether it be the controversial Padres/Rockies finish in 2007, or the White Sox and Twins in 2008, or even the Tigers and Twins last season; each came down to being decided by a single run. The way the standings are shaping up right now, we might be in store for another tiebreaking game or two.
AL West
You can all but call this race. Baseball Prospectus has the Rangers at 92% likely to make the playoffs. The Angels and Athletics spit the remaining ~8% of simulations, but right now the Rangers hold the league’s largest divisional lead (8 games) which is more than five times the next closest. It really is hard to see the Athletics or Angels make a legitimate push for the crown and a lot would have to happen for Texas to miss the postseason.
AL East
The Yankees are the next surest thing, at 87%. Tampa Bay is on their heels (80%) and Boston isn’t dead quite yet (25%) meaning, unlike Texas, it’s possible to imagine the Yankees not winning the division crown at this point. The goal for these teams need not be much more than to finish in the top two of the division and assume second place guarantees a wild card berth…
AL Central
…which makes this race all the more vicious. The Twins and White Sox are tied for first place at this point. Most would probably give the edge to the Twins, but the White Sox always find a way to surprise everyone. The only wild card involved will be whether Kenny Williams can work some magic on the waiver wire.
NL East
Believe it or not, the Braves are projected to make the playoffs more often than any other National League team despite having an identical win total to that of the Reds and Padres (and Giants). Their lead over the Phillies is slight, but this Phillies team that has Mike Sweeney and Wilson Valdez starting on the right side of the infield most days isn’t too inspiring, even if they have beat up on Florida and New York since losing Ryan Howard.
NL Central
With last night’s defeat, the Reds’ lead over the Cardinals is down to a game and a half. This very well could be the most difficult race to call in the entire league.
NL West
The Padres might be baseball’s best story this year and they still have the division lead and a 76% shot at the playoffs. The Giants, though, are breathing down their necks, with an equal number of wins and three extra defeats. If the season ended today, both would be in the postseason.
Is this ESPN or FanGraphs? Real strong analysis….
Especially fair analysis of the Phillies, ignoring the fact that they have the top 1-2-3 in the game and are getting Victorino back this week and utley/howard set to return within a few weeks. To say theyre not the best team in the NL when healthy is a joke.
The Phillies are 15th in batting WAR and 12th in pitching WAR. You don’t just waive that away with “Oh, they’ve had injuries.”
I think you can say that injuries had a significant impact on this season, yes. The 2-month Utley-Valdez/Dobbs dropoff has cost them 2 wins alone. Then there’s howard/victorino/polanco/ruiz/lidge/madson/etc.
You can also consider the fact that they added Oswalt and also experienced an extended hitting slump (almost 2 months) that has hurt their overall batting WAR.
I’ll take my chances with the Phils.
If you’re going to go with 4 months of this lineup’s hitting stats rather than the last 3 years, then yes, they are a mediocre offense.
A good Comparison …
2004 Stl: 105-57
2005 Stl: 100-62
2006 Stl: 83-78
What’s the BIG difference between these 3 seasons … injuries.
2006 Injuries …
Pujols (2nd in MVP) – 1 month
Eckstein (SS) – 1 month
Mulder (#2 SP) – 1/2 Year/Season
Edmonds (CF) 40 G
Isringhausen (CP) – 1 month/season
The folks that are talking as if injuries don’t matter are crazy (Mets anyone?). Staying healthy is likely THE most important thing in winning a division. Haven’t the Phils had the best lineup in the NL for the past 2 years? Isn’t Chase Utley the most “WAR-valuable” player in the NL?
I was hardly claiming that injuries don’t matter – I was saying that it’s not *just* injuries. Raul Ibanez came down with a bad case of old age. Jimmy Rollins apparently fell victim to the same curse of the 20/20/20/20 season Curtis Granderson did. The back end of the rotation is a serious liability (although I did forget to add Oswalt to the pitchers’ WAR total). And let’s be honest, it’s not like the Braves haven’t had their injury issues either. Jair Jurrjens missed significant time. Jason Heyward was out for a while. Martin Prado is still on the shelf.
As of 8/10, PECOTA has the Braves and Phillies in a dead heat (64%). PECOTA doesn’t like the Padres (37%).
I will patiently await your community blog entry.
Even at their best (2009) the Phillies were a 93 win team. The Braves are on pace for better than that this year AND have had their own fair share of big injuries. So, sorry this site isn’t ESPN and the site’s authors won’t act like the Phillies are the greatest thing in the world when they aren’t this year.
If you think 2009 was somehow the Phillies at their best, then you weren’t paying attention. Healthiest, perhaps, but best, certainly not. Jimmy Rollins, Brad Lidge, and Cole Hamels all had significant down years, more than balancing out a hot year by Ibanez.
Happ had a fluky year, yes, but for most of that summer, the phillies were stuck with starting scrubs like Andrew Carpenter, Rodrigo Lopez, and Antonio Bastardo. And again, that closer spot led to a combined 17(!!!) blown saves from Lidge and Ryan Madson. All I’m trying to say is, certainly, 93 wins isn’t really anywhere near the ceiling for the Phillies.
Remember Philly fans, last year was your chance- you could have won a second WS and you would have forever eclipsed the Braves dynasty of the 90’s. But you didn’t, and now you are just a mediocre bunch of shmoes whining about what could have been and vomiting on each other when given the chance. I cannot knock your commitment- your attendance shows that your are a dedicated bunch. But I speak for all of the east coast when I say that your fans are classless dickbrains who deserve nothing. And nothing is what ye shall get!
2010 is not their best, 2009 apparently wasn’t their best (despite being their highest regular season win total), maybe 2008 was their best when they won the World Series but would still have finished behind the 2010 regular season pace of the Braves. Ever consider the “ceiling” you envision the Phillies having is all in your head? Injuries are part of the game, after all, and results are what matter when talking about a playoff race. Not what you wish your team was like.
Nothing says classy like calling people dickbrains.
If the Phillies are a team of injured, mediocre shmoes,the Braves must be a team of healthy, slightly less than mediocre shmoes–or else they wouldn’t be in a dead heat for 1st.
Don’t see the Braves winning more than 90 games.
first 22 games: 8-14, 3.68 R/G
next 48 games: 34-14 5.48 R/G
last 43 games: 23-20 3.91 R/G
This isn’t intended as a rigorous analysis, but the Braves just strike me as a team that played over its head offensively for a stretch and will play around .500 the rest of the way (mostly because of their pitching). They’re on pace for 93 but they’ve been barely playing +.500 ball for awhile now.
On top of that Medlen is on the DL and Venters has appeared in just about every game this year (hyperbole). Wagner has been one the game’s best closers (behind Soria, Bell), but he’s been less effective of late (Mets and Phillies fans can tell you what happens to him in a pennant race). Hudson has a gap between his ERA and xFIP/SIERA.
Back of the envelope prediction: Braves win less than 90 games this year.
An equally non-scientific counter to that would be the Bravos having one of the easiest closing schedules in baseball.
Not sure that’s equally unscientific. I’d at least want to know how it compares to their playoff rivals. Can’t imagine the Phillies schedule is much different given the emphasis on late-season intra-divisional play.
Well, I looked it up. Location and off days aside, here are the *differences* between the two:
– PHI has 2 more game against the Dodgers / ATL 2 more against the Rockies
– PHI has 2 more games against the Mets / ATL 2 more games against the Marlins
– PHI has 3 against MIL / ATL has 3 against PIT
– PHI has 4 against HOU / ATL has 4 against STL, 1 more against HOU
– PHI has 3 against SF and SD / ATL has 3 against CHC and PIT
– Same number of games against the Nationals
Pretty similar.
The Braves also have more home games left than the Phils, and both teams show a strong home-field advantage. Which puts the Phils 4 wins (also known as 1.5 wins less than Cliff Lee has already generated this season) behind the Braves at the end of the season.
Braves Phillies
Current Wins 65 62
Home Games Remaining 27 25
Road Games Remaining 22 25
Home Winning Percentage 72% 64%
Road Winning Percentage 44% 46%
Total Expected Wins 94 90
@Eisen, I assumed that Captain Sweet was simply putting things in terms which Philly fans could understand, the lingua phranca if you will. Classy or no on the captain’s part, they are dickbrains, and I say that without malice or rancor.
Saberfury
You obviously weren’t paying attention to Cole Hamels if you think he had a significant down year in 2009. He was almost exactly the same from 2008 to 2009, except his ERA was worse…oh NO!!!!!
Check the pitch mix and watch games and look at how effective his curveball was in’09 (shakes head as once again people assume similar FIP means ERA variation is luck without checking secondary effects)… Perhaps people being able to ignore his curveball and just sit on a fatsball (which he was throwing 5% more) and change had something to do with his BABIP and ERA going up? His curve in ’09 was no where near as effective (and thrown less frequently) than in ’08. If you prefer to analyze baseball purely through aggregate statistics, a check of pitch type %’s will verify what should have been painfully obviously watching him pitch.
If I had a nickel for every time a Phils fan talked about Hammels bad luck in 2009, I could send it to Amaro and they might have been able to retain Cliff Lee.
Hank, it wasn’t just FIP similarities. His batted-ball types were almost identical. His K and BB rates barely moved. Pitch F/x indicated that his velocity and movement on his pitches were very similar. The ONLY thing that was any different at all was his BABIP. Why is it so hard to accept that he got hit with some shitty luck, especially since it’s impossible to find that he did anything different at all.
Again – you can’t look at simple aggregate stats. Look at his pitch mix #’s and tell me they were the same.
Or you could try watching some games and notice when he had a good curveball, he was generally good, when he didn’t he was bad. (Think world series game).
So when his fastball % goes from 54% to 59% and his curveball % from 13% to 10%… that is the “same” in your view? The pitch F/x is aggregate data that lacks context… a 90mph fastball when a guy can threaten you with a curve is one thing, a 90mph fastball when you can ignore the curve is another.
People really need to start watching games…. perhaps the BABIP was higher because hitters were worried about 2 pitches instead of 3? This BABIP variation = luck is getting ridiculous, sometimes it’s not about luck.
@Bando
You stated 4 pieces of factual statements:
1) The Phillies posted a 93-win 2009 regular season.
2) The Braves are on pace for >93-win 2010 regular season.
3) The Braves have had injuries this season.
4) This site is not EPSN.
Hopefully you DO realise that none of these facts when construed separately/together would lead to a logical deduction/prediction that the Braves will definitely win the East this season.
In case you don’t, here’s why:
1) Just because the Braves are ‘on pace’ for >93 wins doesn’t mean they will definitely get there.
2) It simply cannot be concluded that Phillies will not win the East EVEN IF the Braves win >93 games.
Besides, why does 2009 have to be their best season? You disagree with 2008, but why can’t it be 2010? Or 201x?
In fact, why are you isolating this particular 162-games segment as Phillies ‘[e]ven at their best’? It is easy to compare seasons by calender years, but the period and the # of games you have chosen to base your argument on sounds pretty arbitrary.
@hank
You have made a solid argument that Hamels’ improvement is a result of a better curve. However, this does not directly disprove the theory that Hamels had been ‘unlucky’ with BABIP last season.
Do you think his elevated ERA could be a result of both factors (and maybe other factors as well)?
Also, just out of curiosity, since you are obviously scoffing at the ‘luck’ argument, what are your views on the effects of his better curve on his FIP and xFIP?
Agree with CaptainSweet’s comments.
Everyone should read his post for an in-depth statistical analysis of that pennant race.
We White Sox fans see it a little differently. It’s the Twins that just won’t go away. They have bad starting pitching after Lariano, a mediocre bullpen and average at best defense yet they manage to be in the race. Not saying these are the ’05 White Sox but their pitching has at least as big an edge over the Twins as the Twinkies have on offense. It promises to be an interesting race to see who gets to lose to the AL east champs.
Am I crazy if I think the White Sox have a better chance against a superior team in a short series? Good pitching beats good hitting and all that? I just think if the Twins try to outslug the Yankees or Rays, the outcome is as close to a foregone conclusion as you get. The White Sox have a better chance of riding hot pitchers and getting a few timely hits. Homer hope, or accurate analysis? You make the call.
A couple of points:
1. “Sox but their pitching has at least as big an edge over the Twins as the Twinkies have on offense.”
It’s not close. The White Sox have a 4.2 win edge in pitching but the Twins are +13 on offense.
2. “average at best defense”
The Twins OF is terrible, no doubt about it. However they have BY FAR the best defensive infield in the game (+37 UZR), which more than makes up for it.
Did someone take the words out of my mouth?
Offense is easiest to measure, then pitching, then defense. Because of that, WAR tends to value them in that order. Bill James stated decades ago that the spread in defensive and pitching talent is the same as for hitting, just much harder to quantify. Let’s not even get into baserunning. The fact that sabremetrics has not yet proven him correct does not mean he was wrong, just that there is work to do. Arguing that offense is the most important factoe with sabremetric stats is circular reasoning. I will continue to counter that even modern day defensive metrics such as UZR remain poor at best.
So…as a White Sox fan I believe that the Twins are a better team. I’ll say I overstated my case before. The Twins offense is vastly superior to the White Sox. They are probably a little better defensively and the White Sox have better pitching both in the rotation and the bullpen. I picked the Sox to win 80 – 85 games in march and they could still end up there. The Twins are probably good for 85 – 90, a better team. However, there is enough overlap that a little luck could swing the division.
I will stand by my assertion that I would rather have the White Sox pitching over the Twins hitting in a short series against a better team. I would rather count on scoring three and holding down the Yankees than scoring eight to try to keep up. The White Sox would lose games 3-2, the Twins would lose them 8-6. The Yankees are built more to win 8-6 than 3-2 but the big problem for AL central teams is that they have enough pitching to do either if they need to. The Rays are less explosive offensively, but more flexible in ways they can beat you.
White Sox are probably the better playoff team, but it doesn’t mean anything if they don’t make the playoffs. I don’t think the Twins have any realistic shot at the World Series (outside of their lineup collectively going on a hot streak).
Am I missing something or has Carl Pavano not been pretty damn good this season?
Also, the underlying numbers of Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey show they should be much better than what their ERA, win totals, etc tell.
Our bullpen has the lowest ERA in the AL.
Your team is 6th in the AL for starter ERA, we’re 5th. 3.89 vs. 3.95. (Probably closer after tonight).
On the bright side: I work in Chicago, and your analysis was probably the most intelligent I’ve heard from a CSW fan.
Got the starter ERA mixed up. You’re 5th, we’re 6th.
I can see your point about pitching and a short series, Mike, and I’m glad you walked back the earlier remarks a bit as, to be honest, my friends and I regularly wonder how the White Sox are able to score with any consistency. Quite the motley crew Mr. Williams has assembled. Agreed also with Erik on Pavano being solid and Baker/Slowey being better than their stats are repping. Duensing replacing Blackburn is an upgrade as will imo. The Twins sure could have used Lee though…
Man, as a Twins fan, I was salivating at the thought of Lee-Liriano in a short playoff series.
Why wouldn’t you use the PECOTA-adjusted playoff odds? Even at this point in the season, the combination of regression to the mean and the projection (even if based off of preseason numbers) makes that report more predictive, one would think.
BP’s playoff odds are what I pay attention to.
I would like to see just how accurate they have been over the last decade.
“Or even?” Yeah, last year’s 163rd game wasn’t a classic.
Second that
“The goal of either AL East team need not be more than finishing 1st or 2nd.”
Assuming Texas is more or less a lock and the likely 2 seed, you don’t see a major difference between possibly facing Cliff Lee twice in a best of 5 series vs a best of 7 series? As good as Liriano has been that alone seems like a lot to play for (and that ignore whatever value you place on having home field advantage) and while Chicago has good overall pitching I think most teams would prefer that matchup over Cliff Lee in a short series. Not to mention Texas will in all likelihood have their rotation lined up and starters rested as much as needed, while the AL Central race may not allow this.
I’d think matchups (and to a lesser extent HFA) would give the AL East folks a lot to play for, even if it is a two horse race with the loser taking the wild card – I’m not saying they’d burn their ace on the last day to get the division, but it seems somewhat important what place they finish in.
In the AL, the potential playoff teams are Texas, New York, Tampa Bay, Boston, Chicago and Minnesota, agreed?
Here the teams’ current loss totals:
NYY – 43
TAM – 44
TEX – 47
BOS – 49
MIN – 49
CWS – 50
Winston Wolf would be telling the AL East teams something about inhalation of popsicles right about now. Simply put, if anyone considers Boston to be in the playoff race, they have to consider the AL Central runner-up to be on basically equal footing. I understand the advanced metrics corroborating the obvious: any team batting Juan Pierre and Omar Vizquel one-two really ought to be taken out behind the barn and put out of its misery. But at the same time, the Twins and White Sox have the benefit of an AL Central schedule.
The White Sox play 22 more games against CLE, KC and DET (worst since the break). The Twins have 21 against those three plus the Mariners. Meanwhile, Boston only has 12 remaining games against sub-.500 teams. Tampa lucks out, with 17 games remaining against losing teams. The Yankees also have 17 games with losing opponents.
The White Sox have 18 left with BOS/NYY/MIN.
The Twins have 15 left with CWS/TEX, plus 4 with TOR.
The Red Sox have 22 left with NYY/CWS/TAM, plus 8 with TOR.
The Rays have 16 left with BOS/NYY/TEX, plus 6 with TOR.
The Yankees have 20 left with BOS/TEX/CWS/TAM, plus 9 with TOR.
By virtue of not being in the AL East, the White Sox and Twins have modestly easier schedules from here on out. Given the amount of overlap between one another, the Wild Card isn’t “the 2nd place AL East Team.” It’s the team that grabs the bull by the horns and wins those all important head-to-heads.
It’s very conceivable that a good AL Central team sneaks up into the Wild Card over a better AL East team on account of luck. Is it likely? Not really. But the Red Sox are on crutches and the Rays have been 1-hit/no-hit 5 times this year. The White Sox and Twins also can make waiver claims before the AL East teams so long as they are a couple games back: they can block BOS from getting a reliever or Tampa from getting another stick. And they have an easier time making that needed waiver trade.
Ignore the metrics for just a second and remember that in the smaller league, competition is more concentrated and thus more susceptible to oddities ranging from matchups to scheduling.
Cards were one game back in the standings at the time of this not 1.5. We know lead by like 2 percentage points.