A Small Way for Cleveland to Improve Their Outfield

Two days ago, I examined what exactly is going on in the San Diego rotation. The notion of a Padres pitcher is almost a philosophical one. Technically there are starting pitchers on the roster, yes, but any resemblance to any quality pitchers, alive or dead, is entirely coincidental.

This is somewhat the case with the group of outfielders currently employed by the Cleveland Indians. I would hesitate to insinuate that these outfielders, who play for a team that reached Game Seven of the World Series, are of a similar quality to the starting pitchers of the Padres. Tyler Naquin, after all, just finished third in the American League Rookie of the Year voting. Brandon Guyer could be sitting on his couch at home and stand a good chance of being hit by an errant pitch and being awarded first place. Lonnie Chisenhall is a solid if unspectacular player. And we must remember that for all his injury tribulations this past year and change, Michael Brantley is still one of the more talented players in all of baseball.

Yet when taken altogether, this does not look like the outfield of a team that just won a pennant, nor one that’s expected to contend for a division title. Cleveland’s strength will always be its pitching. The team is built around Francisco Lindor, yes, but it’s also built around Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar. These are the men who decide if the team soars or crashes. If the pitching is good, the team will have a chance. They still need good position players, though, and the outfield gives them three opportunities to do that.

Naquin is going to be given one of those opportunities. The 135 wRC+ he recorded in 2016 means that he’ll be in the outfield regardless of where he fits, but defensive metrics give his work in center field scathing reviews. We’re talking -17 DRS in center field — which, even after regression, implies decidedly below-average defense. That’s not ideal. It’s actually pretty far from ideal. Plus, Steamer and ZiPS both forecast a downturn in his offensive output. If that comes to pass, Naquin will either be a troublesome center fielder, a bland player in a corner, or on the bench.

Cleveland already has more than their fair share of bland corner outfielders, especially if Brantley doesn’t come back in a meaningful capacity. Chisenhall doesn’t slug like you want a right fielder to, and Guyer and Abraham Almonte are nothing to write home about. What’s the solution, other than sprinkling fairy dust on Brantley’s shoulder?

Free agency offers few exciting options. Cleveland could, for instance, turn to Michael Saunders, who broke out in a big way this past year. He’s not tied to any draft-pick compensation and probably won’t command a deal longer than three years due to his past fragility. Then again, pretty much all of Saunders’ production was in the first half. He registered just a 69 wRC+ after the All-Star break, and you generally want to see something a bit more promising than that before making a considerable investment. Saunders certainly wouldn’t be expected to serve as a main spoke on the offense, but he wouldn’t be inconsequential, either. There’s no Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista and Troy Tulowitzki here. Saunders isn’t a terrible idea, but he’s not ideal, either.

Of course, “ideal” may not be out there. Bautista wants a lot of money and is tied to a draft pick, the Rockies want a king’s ransom for Charlie Blackmon, Andrew McCutchen is probably out of their price range, and the only other impact free-agent outfielder is Mark Trumbo, who’s more of an “outfielder.” It seems that the Indians won’t be able to perform a total, glittering overhaul of their outfield in one winter, unless Mike Chernoff works some magic. It’s time to play everyone’s favorite game: incremental upgrades!

I mentioned Blackmon as a potential trade target, and it’s possible that the Rockies’ asking price for him could come down. He’s the most obvious fit. Blackmon could even be a potential deadline move for Cleveland if the Rockies fall out of contention and/or Ian Desmond has a rough time at first base. If Cleveland doesn’t want to wait that long, another trade is out there.

Namely, one for Brett Gardner. Gardner isn’t an offensive dynamo, but he can pick it and offers the sort of speed that’s become a real strength for Cleveland. Gardner can still play center field. By forcing Naquin into left, Cleveland would recoup value by bettering its defense. Gardner is still roughly a league-average bat, which is more than can be said about Almonte, and would be a great platoon partner with Guyer. On top of all that, he shouldn’t cost much.

Gardner is making $24 million over the next two seasons, and has a club option for $12.5 million tacked on at the end. He’s going to be 33 next year, and generally projects to be about a two-win player for these two years of his contract. That means, given current the price of a win (about $8.0 or $8.5 million), he’s being paid roughly what he’s worth over the next few years, and may even be a bit of a bargain at that price. He’s nothing but wire and muscle, and though he gets banged up a fair amount, he should age decently well. So he’s not going to bring back a top-100 prospect like Bradley Zimmer, but he could fetch something useful. Say, a fun infield prospect like Yu-Cheng Yang. The Yankees have shortstop prospects coming out of their ears, of course, but they seem fond of accumulating them and using their athletic ability to move them to other positions when the time is right. Eric Longenhagen was a fan of Chang, ranking him ninth in the Cleveland system and putting a 45 FV on him. That’s the grade of a solid bench player — which, at a league-minimum salary, is an appropriate return for a player like Gardner on a contract like Gardner’s, and Longenhagen says that there’s potential for Chang to blossom into more.

The Yankees aren’t exactly in a rush to trade Gardner, of course. He isn’t immediately blocking the ascension of a top prospect; at least not until Clint Frazier is ready to go. But Gardner doesn’t figure to be part of the next great Yankee team, and he isn’t a vital cog of the current one. His move could even open up left field for another outside player, while Frazier would send Jacoby Ellsbury to the bench when he arrives. It’s a move that frees up more room for Brian Cashman to play with, and it would allow them to get another fun prospect to either use as currency or as part of their next contention run. And indeed, the Yankees are reported to be listening to offers for Gardner.

Chernoff still has room to improve the offense by bringing back Mike Napoli or Brandon Moss to DH. Gardner, however, would provide defensive value and flexibility in the outfield — and would provide insurance in the event that Brantley can’t play the outfield or Naquin’s offense falls apart. It’s a cheap move that’s worth doing. It’s not the kind of trade that wins championships, but it’s the kind of trade that smart GMs make. It’s one that looks even better if Brantley can play.

This isn’t the most scandalous trade proposal you’ve seen on FanGraphs. It’s not sexy, and it won’t light the comments on fire. But, I think, it makes sense. So I’ve got that going for me, which is nice.