A Steep Dive into Shohei Ohtani’s Latest Homer, and Other Statcast Extremes
Shohei Ohtani does something amazing virtually every time he sets foot on a baseball field, and Thursday was no exception. Leading off the afternoon’s contest against the Orioles in Camden Yards, he connected with Keegan Akin’s second pitch of the day, a hanging curveball in the middle of the zone, and hit a towering homer:
It wasn’t just the fact that this was Ohtani’s 41st homer of the year, extending his major league lead, or that it was the third time he’s led off a game with a homer, which he did on June 25 against the Rays in Tampa Bay and on August 14 against the Astros in Anaheim. No, what stood out to these eyes was the combination of the Statcast specs — a 45-degree launch angle and a 110.7-mph exit velocity — on this shot that made it such a majestic drive, and one that particularly caught the eye of this launch angle aficionado.
I have a thing for what I’ve sometimes termed “launch angle porn,” one that predates the Statcast era. Even amid the unending barrage of home runs and their resultant highlights, I find that the visceral thrill of watching the beginning of a sky-scraping home run is the best part. Particularly when viewed on a two-dimensional screen of whatever size, we have no idea of the final distance that struck sphere will travel, but after the sight and sound of contact — and particularly, the mellifluous melody of a ball hitting the sweet spot of a wooden bat — launch angle is the first feedback we get, whether or not there’s a number attached to that steep ascent. As for exit velocity and distance, those come later, whether it’s a couple of seconds after when we see where that ball lands, or once the Statcast numbers are in.
Wherever you sit along the spectrum of baseball observers, from newcomer through casual fan, diehard, junkie, nerd, and professional, you are by no means obligated to care about such numbers. But if you’re the type that gets a kick out of at least an occasional peek at them, not for their own sake but because they increase our understanding of the game (and of ourselves): welcome to the club, and to today’s tour of the season-to-date’s Statcast extremes. This ride isn’t for everyone, but if it’s your thing, buckle up.
Back to Ohtani. Home runs with a 45-degree launch angle are fairly uncommon; prior to Thursday, just 20 had been hit in the majors this year, accounting for 0.43% of all homers. And yet that’s the highest rate on record, up from 0.3% last year, 0.16% in 2019, 0.39% in ’18, and rates in the 0.14–0.16% range in the three years before that. Particularly with those lower rates in the earlier years of Statcast, I don’t know whether to chalk up the current increase to changing techniques by hitters, better quality control by MLB Advanced Media (some homers just break Statcast), or the shift from Trackman to Hawkeye, which happened before the 2020 season. One way or another, these things don’t happen every day.
Combine those homers with extreme launch angles with those with exceptional exit velocities of 110 mph or greater — which account for 10% of homers this year, but historically something in the 6–8% range — and you’ve really got some scarcity. Just seven homers in the Statcast era meet both of those specifications, though three have come this year:
Player | Team | Opp | Date | Exit Velo | Dist | Launch Angle | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mike Zunino | Rays | Nationals | 6/29/21 | 111.0 | 358 | 48 | BOOM! |
Pete Alonso | Mets | Rockies | 6/8/19 | 111.5 | 364 | 48 | BOOM! |
Lucas Duda | Royals | Yankees | 7/28/18 | 110.7 | 345 | 48 | BOOM! |
Luke Voit | Yankees | Blue Jays | 9/16/20 | 111.6 | 404 | 47 | BOOM! |
Bryce Harper | Phillies | Cubs | 7/6/21 | 110.1 | 394 | 46 | BOOM! |
Ronald Acuña Jr. | Braves | Cubs | 6/25/19 | 110.0 | 413 | 46 | BOOM! |
Shohei Ohtani | Angels | Orioles | 8/26/21 | 110.7 | 374 | 45 | BOOM! |
That’s quite a bunch of sluggers. All but Duda rank in the 94th percentile or higher in terms of barrel rate since the start of the 2018 season, led by Zunino (16.4%, sixth in the majors) and Ohtani (16.0%). All but Duda and Voit rank in the 92nd percentile or higher in terms of maximum exit velocity — a useful proxy for raw power — led by Ohtani (119.0 mph), and in the 87th percentile or higher in terms of average home run distance, led by Acuña (414 feet). But other than being barreled, these drives don’t conform to those trends. For one thing, only those of Acuña and Duda exceeded 400 feet. More tellingly, all of them are clustered in a narrow band of exit velos that vary by a maximum of 1.6 MPH, and save for Duda and Voit, they’re about six clicks slower than those sluggers’ maximums. For as hard as these guys hit the ball in these particular cases, they’re capable of much more.
Anyway, for all of the home runs you might see these days, you don’t often see ones like those, so I’ve provided links to each of those drives. Setting exit velocity aside, Zunino’s home run doesn’t qualify as the steepest of the year in terms of launch angle, and Ohtani’s doesn’t even crack the top 10:
Player | Team | Opp | Date | Exit Velo | Dist | Launch Angle | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Xander Bogaerts | Red Sox | Orioles | 8/13/21 | 102.3 | 343 | 50 | BOOM! |
Carlos Correa | Astros | Red Sox | 6/8/21 | 105.5 | 310 | 49 | BOOM! |
Joey Gallo | Yankees | Mariners | 8/5/21 | 109.5 | 331 | 48 | BOOM! |
Pavin Smith | Diamondbacks | Pirates | 8/25/21 | 107.3 | 352 | 48 | BOOM! |
Mike Zunino | Rays | Nationals | 6/29/21 | 111.0 | 358 | 48 | BOOM! |
Alex Jackson | Marlins | Rockies | 8/8/21 | 104.1 | 387 | 47 | BOOM! |
Seby Zavala | White Sox | Indians | 7/31/21 | 106.6 | 377 | 46 | BOOM! |
Jay Bruce | Yankees | Orioles | 4/6/21 | 105.6 | 354 | 46 | BOOM! |
Anthony Alford | Pirates | Diamondbacks | 8/24/21 | 106.6 | 369 | 46 | BOOM! |
Cody Bellinger | Dodgers | Phillies | 8/11/21 | 106.6 | 371 | 46 | BOOM! |
Bryce Harper | Phillies | Cubs | 7/6/21 | 110.1 | 394 | 46 | BOOM! |
I’ve included the links to all of those homers, but that Bogaerts one deserves a closer look. For one thing, he hit it off the ledge atop the Green Monster:
Only two other homers from the Statcast era have reached or exceeded 50 degrees, and one — a 51-degree homer by Avisail Garcia on May 28, 2019 — shouldn’t really count in this context, as it was an inside-the-park job caused by Blue Jays outfielder Randal Grichuk losing sight of the ball under the Tropicana Field roof. The other was this May 15, 2015 skyscraper by J.D. Martinez, an absurd 50 degrees and just 327 feet.
Gallo’s homer, his first as a Yankee, nearly broke Twitter. Not only was it larger-than-life like one might have hoped given the slugger’s natural power, but it also apparently introduced a good portion of social media to the reality of Yankee Stadium’s short right field line, where the 314-foot distance was preserved from the post-renovation House That Ruth Built. The three-run shot provided decisive in the Yankees’ 5–3 win, and the estimated distance of 331 feet — remember, that’s a projection of how far it would travel unimpeded before hitting the ground — drew so many complaints that MLBAM’s Tom Tango had to diagram an explanation:
The Gallo HR at 48 degrees down the line is a good time to show the distance at the corner for Yankee Stadium.
Here are three points. The first is the foul pole, where we see that it is indeed 314 feet, with a 7 foot wall. The W is already at 323 feet, so that's a big change. https://t.co/AfqlxxIBlu pic.twitter.com/UIwCJDjorC
— Tangotiger ? (@tangotiger) August 6, 2021
Having covered home runs hit at the steepest launch angles for 2021, it’s worth taking note of extreme distances as well, particularly given that Wednesday night brought the season’s longest drive, a 495-foot shot by the Twins’ Miguel Sanó at the expense of Boston’s Nick Pivetta. This one didn’t just clear the Green Monster; it left the building entirely:
That was by far the longest home run ever tracked at Fenway Park, surpassing a 469-footer by Hanley Ramirez on April 29, 2017. It was no fluke, either. Though it fell one foot short of Sanó’s career long of 496 feet (more on which momentarily), he occupies two other spots within the top 10 on this year’s distance leaderboard:
Player | Team | Opp | Date | Exit Velo | Launch Angle | Dist |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miguel Sanó | Twins | Red Sox | 8/25/21 | 116.7 | 24 | 495 |
Tommy Pham | Padres | Rockies | 8/17/21 | 107.9 | 28 | 486 |
Yermín Mercedes | White Sox | Royals | 4/8/21 | 113.3 | 24 | 485 |
Ronald Acuña Jr. | Braves | Cubs | 4/27/21 | 111.9 | 27 | 481 |
Marcell Ozuna | Braves | Cubs | 4/29/21 | 114.3 | 25 | 479 |
Ryan McMahon | Rockies | Reds | 5/15/21 | 109.4 | 28 | 478 |
Fernando Tatis Jr. | Padres | Rockies | 6/16/21 | 113.1 | 26 | 477 |
Miguel Sanó | Twins | Cleveland | 8/18/21 | 113.9 | 27 | 475 |
Franchy Cordero | Red Sox | Phillies | 5/23/21 | 118.6 | 29 | 474 |
Miguel Sanó | Twins | Tigers | 7/28/21 | 114.8 | 30 | 473 |
In an effort to preserve what’s left of my sanity (and that of my editor), I’m merely going to link you to the Statcast search page if you want to peep at these prodigious drives before we move along to the part where I point out that Sanó’s latest long-distance dinger did crack the top 10 of the Statcast era:
Player | Team | Opp | Date | Exit Velo | Launch Angle | Dist |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nomar Mazara | Rangers | White Sox | 6/21/19 | 109.7 | 27 | 505 |
Giancarlo Stanton | Marlins | Rockies | 8/6/16 | 115.8 | 18 | 504 |
Miguel Sanó | Twins | White Sox | 9/17/19 | 113.5 | 25 | 496 |
Aaron Judge | Yankees | Blue Jays | 9/30/17 | 118.3 | 26 | 496 |
Ronald Acuña Jr. | Braves | Red Sox | 9/25/20 | 112.9 | 32 | 495 |
Joey Gallo | Rangers | Cleveland | 7/20/18 | 114.3 | 31 | 495 |
Miguel Sanó | Twins | Red Sox | 8/25/21 | 116.7 | 24 | 495 |
Aaron Judge | Yankees | Orioles | 6/11/17 | 118.6 | 28 | 495 |
Gary Sánchez | Yankees | Tigers | 8/22/17 | 113.1 | 29 | 493 |
Michael A. Taylor | Nationals | Rockies | 8/20/15 | 110.1 | 26 | 493 |
Continuing the theme of extremes, particularly ones produced in recent days, here’s this year’s leaderboard for exit velocity:
Player | Team | Opp | Date | Launch Angle | Dist | Exit Velo |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manny Machado | Padres | Phillies | 8/20/21 | 15 | 357 | 119.6 |
Franchy Cordero | Red Sox | Phillies | 5/23/21 | 29 | 474 | 118.6 |
Giancarlo Stanton | Yankees | Cleveland | 4/23/21 | 18 | 429 | 118.0 |
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Blue Jays | Rays | 5/24/21 | 23 | 461 | 117.4 |
Ronald Acuña Jr. | Braves | Reds | 6/27/21 | 19 | 432 | 117.4 |
Mike Zunino | Rays | Mets | 5/14/21 | 27 | 450 | 117.3 |
Giancarlo Stanton | Yankees | Astros | 5/6/21 | 20 | 437 | 117.3 |
Shohei Ohtani | Angels | Yankees | 6/28/21 | 25 | 416 | 117.2 |
Shohei Ohtani | Angels | Rangers | 5/25/21 | 24 | 380 | 117.0 |
Yermín Mercedes | White Sox | Orioles | 5/27/21 | 24 | 427 | 116.8 |
That Machado homer, which passed almost without notice last week — that can happen when you’re busy losing 11 of 13, as the Padres have — holds the distinction of having the lowest launch angle of any over-the-wall homer of the Statcast era. You could hang your wash on this clothesline:
The only home run with a lower angle was an inside-the-park job by the Tigers’ Eric Haase. Via that exit velocity, Machado’s drive did earn him a place among the top 10 of the Statcast era, as did Franchy’s blast, which since it has come up multiple times here deserves a full airing:
The rest of the leaderboard is utterly dominated by two men, both part of the Yankees’ Jumbo Package:
Player | Team | Opp | Date | Launch Angle | Dist | Exit Velo |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Giancarlo Stanton | Yankees | Rangers | 8/9/18 | 17 | 449 | 121.7 |
Giancarlo Stanton | Yankees | Nationals | 7/25/20 | 21 | 483 | 121.3 |
Aaron Judge | Yankees | Orioles | 6/10/17 | 25 | 382 | 121.1 |
Manny Machado | Padres | Phillies | 8/20/21 | 15 | 357 | 119.6 |
Aaron Judge | Yankees | Orioles | 4/28/17 | 17 | 435 | 119.4 |
Giancarlo Stanton | Yankees | Blue Jays | 6/6/18 | 15 | 416 | 119.3 |
Giancarlo Stanton | Marlins | Cardinals | 6/23/15 | 22 | 479 | 119.2 |
Giancarlo Stanton | Marlins | Braves | 9/28/17 | 23 | 467 | 118.7 |
Franchy Cordero | Red Sox | Phillies | 5/23/21 | 29 | 474 | 118.6 |
Aaron Judge | Yankees | Orioles | 6/11/17 | 28 | 495 | 118.6 |
As noted previously, you don’t have to invest in these numbers to the degree that I have here in order to enjoy the game or the dingers. Admittedly, not all of them have much of an impact on winning and losing. The Ohtani homer that kicked off this little tour, for example, was about as far from pivotal in the final outcome as a homer can get, representing the Angels’ lone run in a 13–1 bludgeoning by the Orioles, the worst team in baseball. Sometimes, it’s enough to appreciate the aesthetics, whether or not there are numbers attached.
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
Great article!