Aaron Nola Took the Guaranteed Money
No matter what you think about the current market dynamics, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: Free agency is leaving more and more players at best annoyed, and at worst pissed off. Many free agents are signed, of course, and some of them are signed to big, healthy contracts, but other premium players are still without employers, and the messaging has hardly been subtle. Players and the union aren’t pleased. Even if the team side of the equation isn’t doing anything wrong, the state of things is far from harmonious. A greater number of players are talking about what they see as a problem.
Imagine yourself, then, as a player who’s not yet a free agent. You might be inclined to believe you’re exceptional. Maybe you figure things’ll be worked out by the time it’s your turn. But you keep hearing about how free agency isn’t what it used to be. Even if most of the money is still there, nothing happens fast. There’s a lot of uncertainty. The idea of reaching free agency has been somewhat devalued. At least in theory, you’d figure this could lead to an increase in the number of long-term contract extensions.
It’s too early to know if there’s a trend. And no player is going to come out and say “I signed this extension because free agency is bad now.” But Aaron Nola has become the latest player to give up a free-agent year or two. Not for free, obviously. He’s going to get paid. It’s a question of whether he’ll get paid enough. It’s getting harder to calculate what “enough” even is.
As far as the Phillies’ future is concerned, not that much has changed. Now there’s just greater cost certainty on the books. Nola was looking at three years of arbitration eligibility. He’s now signed a four-year contract extension, with a fifth-year option. Here’s the breakdown, not including a $2-million signing bonus:
- 2019: $4 million
- 2020: $8 million
- 2021: $11.75 million
- 2022: $15 million (would-be FA year)
- 2023: $16 million club option, $4.25 million buyout (would-be FA year)
The guarantee here is $45 million over four years. It could become $56.75 million over five years. For the Phillies, that final option year will effectively be an $11.75-million decision. Sometimes contract extensions can feel somewhat ordinary, especially around this time on the calendar. But there haven’t been that many three-year starting pitchers who’ve given up future years of free agency. Chase Anderson gave up one free-agent year. Carlos Martinez gave up four. Wade Miley gave up one. And then you have to go all the way back to Johnny Cueto, in 2011. Almost for lack of better options, I suppose Martinez makes for the appropriate comparison.
Before 2017, Martinez signed a long-term contract extension with the Cardinals. It was worth at least $51 million over five years, maxing out at $85.5 million over seven years. Like Nola, Martinez had been looking ahead to three years of arbitration. Here’s a comparison of Martinez and Nola’s two seasons leading up to their extensions:
| Pitcher | Years | Ages | IP | ERA- | FIP- | xFIP- | xwOBA | IL Stints | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Martinez | 2015-2016 | 23-24 | 375.0 | 77 | 86 | 89 | 0.285 | 1 | Shoulder |
| Aaron Nola | 2017-2018 | 24-25 | 380.1 | 69 | 73 | 79 | 0.268 | 1 | Back |
By any number, Nola looks better. Martinez was good, but Nola looks better. In fairness, this does ignore that Nola had an elbow scare back in 2016. But, for two years, he’s pitched without problem. It’s true that Martinez threw and throws harder, but Nola has converted his own stuff into superior results. He just finished third in voting for the NL Cy Young.
For what it’s worth, Martinez had received a $1.5-million signing bonus when he first joined the Cardinals. In his first year of arbitration, he was going to make a minimum of $3.9 million. Nola received a $3.3-million signing bonus when he first joined the Phillies. In his first year of arbitration, he was going to make a minimum of $4.5 million. With these numbers in mind, both pitchers were guaranteed to be millionaires. Nola was maybe less incentivized to sign for a big-dollar compromise. His dollars ultimately aren’t that much bigger than Martinez’s. The only part meaningfully more player-friendly is that Martinez signed away two extra years. Nola will still be eligible to hit free agency sooner, if that’s what he wants.
Taking a step back now, Nola’s career has been a fun one. He debuted in the majors in 2015. Look at what his numbers have done over the past three seasons:
From a more traditional perspective, Nola has taken off. Since 2016, he’s doubled his innings, and he’s halved his ERA. But while his ERA- has gone from 116 to 82 to 59, his FIP- has gone from 73 to 74 to 72. His xFIP- has gone from 75 to 78 to 79. Nola has either become dramatically more effective, or he hasn’t changed a bit. I lean more toward the latter view — I think Nola has been good for a while, albeit with a few injury-related hiccups. But leaving the peripherals aside, there’s also been some obvious growth. Consider, for example, Nola’s four-seam velocity:
There’s no hiding the fact that Nola has been throwing harder. Throwing harder is good. Nola, also, has been working into a greater number of pitcher-friendly counts. In 2016, he ranked in the 42nd percentile, throwing 61% first-pitch strikes. In 2018, he ranked in the 98th percentile, throwing 69% first-pitch strikes. Even as the peripheral numbers have hardly budged, we’ve seen Nola throw harder, stay healthy, and get ahead more often. This past season saw him put the injuries at least temporarily behind him, reducing the risk for the Phillies to make a long-term investment. The Phillies can feel very good about this. In truth, Nola can also feel very good about this, because it’s a guaranteed $45 million, but you wonder how much the free-agency conditions factored in. It could be that Nola just really likes Philadelphia. But the last thing the free-agent market needs is even fewer players reaching it in their prime.
There’s one last thing I want to mention here about Nola, courtesy of Baseball Savant. Nola is presently coming off a sparkling ERA. That’s a sparkling ERA he posted while pitching in front of a miserable Phillies team defense. Some WAR calculations give Nola additional credit for that, assuming he was hurt by the players behind him. But here’s a table of 2018 Phillies pitchers, showing both regular wOBA allowed, and expected wOBA allowed:
| Pitcher | wOBA | xwOBA | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seranthony Dominguez | 0.227 | 0.255 | -0.028 |
| Aaron Nola | 0.251 | 0.257 | -0.006 |
| Victor Arano | 0.286 | 0.286 | 0.000 |
| Jake Arrieta | 0.315 | 0.311 | 0.004 |
| Tommy Hunter | 0.319 | 0.305 | 0.014 |
| Adam Morgan | 0.304 | 0.281 | 0.023 |
| Zach Eflin | 0.318 | 0.292 | 0.026 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.335 | 0.307 | 0.028 |
| Vince Velasquez | 0.325 | 0.294 | 0.031 |
| Nick Pivetta | 0.322 | 0.288 | 0.034 |
| Hector Neris | 0.341 | 0.295 | 0.046 |
At least by this measure, the defense behind Nola was fine. He did, after all, finish with a career-low .251 BABIP. If the defense hurt, it really hurt guys like Neris, Pivetta, and Velasquez. This is a simple point, but a fundamental one: Defense can vary. A good defense isn’t consistently, equivalently good; a bad defense isn’t consistently, equivalently bad. If you were to replay the 2018 season a hundred times, then in many of those times, the defense behind Nola would’ve been worse. In the actual 2018 season, you could say Nola got lucky. He got lucky, while he also pitched like an ace.
Anyway, we’re all sitting here, waiting for the Phillies to make that one last splash. Maybe there’ll be a splash and maybe there won’t, but the offseason — if this is still the offseason — has already been incredibly productive. Aaron Nola was already going to be a Phillie. He was already going to be the best starter on the Phillies. But now they’ve got him for an extra year or two, at what seems to be a modest price. It’s good for all parties directly involved, while hinting at a larger issue with the sport.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
I don’t think Nola is getting invited to the Verlander thanksgiving anytime soon.
Wait did I miss something?
“throwing harder is good”, until your shoulder and elbow are in tatters. maybe that has as much to do with this as anything.
A pitcher trading only one option year for over $40m guaranteed?
Not sure there’s any choice at all.
He’s essentially trading two, since the last year is a club option, and if he’s still a good pitcher, it’s going to be picked up, and while $16.5 mil is a lot, it’s still less than you’d pay a top pitcher in FA.
And if his arm falls off tomorrow and he never pitches again…he’s got $45m in the bank.
There’s a much bigger difference between $8m and $45m than between $45m and $100m.
37 >> 55
In absolute terms, sure.
In terms of the marginal utility derived from income, however, it’s not particularly close.
To dumb it down: Would you claim that a $200k raise has a greater impact on the life of someone who makes $1m a year as a $100k raise would on someone who makes $20k a year?
After all, 200>>100!!!
To some people maybe, but $55 million is clearly more than $37 million. So, not to anyone who isn’t notably risk averse. And while injury risk over the next few years is reasonably high, the risk that he would only make $8 million more over the rest of his career if he was to get hurt at some point is exceedingly low. Nola mad his choice, some people would make a different choice.
“Understands that the marginal utility derived from money is not linear” =/= “notably risk-averse.”
$1m impacts the living situation of someone on minimum wage far more than an extra $1b would impact Jeff Bezos.
But $1b is clearly greater than $1m!
..
Aaron Nola has made roughly $1.6M so far in his career. Signing a deal now to lock in an additional $40M is the right call.
If his career progresses and he remains healthy, he can sign another contract 5 years from now. If his shoulder explodes, he is set financially.
No, he got a $3.3M signing bonus for being the 7th overall pick in 2014
He got a signing bonus of $3.3 million after being drafted 7th overall, but yeah, your point still stands. $5 million to $45 million is the difference between being set financially and your children’s children being set financially.
$9 Million, not $5 Million. He was going to make at least $4M this year.
And in order to be non-tendered next year, absolute disaster would have to strike (i.e. something worse than TJ surgery). Seems he’s being way too risk averse.
If everything goes perfectly for him, he’s sacrificing $20m or so.
If his arm falls off tomorrow, he’s sacrificing $40m.
The difference between $5m and $45m is much, much bigger than between $45m and $65m.
“Seems he’s being way too risk averse.”
Seems to be he’s being wise. He’s set for life, no matter what happens. And the effective difference in someone’s life between $45 million and even $100 million is trivial.
My hat’s off to him. I only wish our current crop of “But I want $300 million!” greedheads would emulate him and sign for something reasonable.
It seems from both surveys and anecdotes in the media that $40 million is a windfall that is relatively easy to squander. In terms of generational wealth, there isn’t a lot of evidence that windfalls actually lead to it.
Not everyone cares about generational wealth. I don’t think Nola is married or has kids. I don’t know what his dream life includes. Not everyone cares how much money they will have in the bank when they die, they may be more concerned with what they co do while they are alive. It is easy to squander $40 million but it is also easy to live happily off of $5 million for the rest of your life.
Honestly…if you want to have kids and own a house in a Northeast suburb, and not have your kids go into debt for college, $5m in lifetime earnings might be a stretch.
$45m takes care of all of that.
Surely $3 million is even easier to squander than $40 million, and if you can squander $40 million, you can certainly squander $100 million.
Aaron Nola just assured his kids of having Bon Vivant as a legitimate career option.
I once watched a documentary about how it was actually quite difficult for a baseball to squander $30MM of inheritance in 30 days, given certain stipulations.
Should say “baseball player.”
MLBTR estimated $6.6M-$10M-$18M for Nola’s arbitration payment.
Given that Phillies were looking for $4.5M vs. Nola’s $6.7M,
it was extremely likely that Nola would prevail.
I just don’t think trading $20M+ of expected earnings is worth it once you are guaranteed $10M
and your 10% floor is $30M+.
“His 10% floor” is Brandon Webb.
If Nola performs like Brandon Webb did in his 5th and 6th season,
then Nola’s lifetime earnings would be closer to $40M than $30M by the end of 2021
so no, I think that is more like a 20% floor in terms of earnings.
Yeah, that was poorly articulated.
His 10% floor was his shoulder pulling a Brandon Webb while warming up today, and never seeing any of that.
This guarantees him considerably more money than Matt Harvey got through 7 seasons, if we want another example.
You think there is a 10% chance that Nola gets a career ending injury in the next several weeks?
Either you are the most bearish guy on Nola ever or you are bad with probability.
I think his point is that anything can happen, at any time.
Garret Richards got 6.8 and 7.3 million in 2017 and 2018 his last 2 arb years and he was coming off a 34 inning season followed by a 27 inning season. So even if Nola gets hurt hes still looking at 13+ million his last 2 arb seasons. Richards was even able to parley yet another injury riddled season in 2018, 76 innings, into a 15 million dollar guaranteed contract with incentives to boost that total. So in essence what i’m trying to say is that even with the injury risk he would be getting a lot more than nothing if he gets hurt. Richards shows that even 3 years of sub 150 innings total can still get you paid if you’ve got his level of talent.
DBacks fan and even though it happened 10 years ago, there is STILL a small part of me that can’t believe Webb’s career just went “poof”.
For anyone outside Phoenix, Webb has come back as a part of the DBacks broadcast crew doing post-game work in studio. Was a little wooden the 1st couple years but has settled into the gig nicely since then.
Seems like starters may have to start looking at taking a little less on deals seeing how teams are obsessed with bullpens,if starters are pitching less and relievers more it’s gonna be the norm
Also relievers should take less because they are relievers. These guys are just playing a game anyway! Who needs some taxpayer money and then tax breaks for a new stadium?!
Blame your local politicians for any tax breaks for a new stadium. If someone is giving you free money you generally take it.
No, I blame the people for thinking nothing of it but always being willing to go after each other. But sure – in a fair world the scumbags willing to give what is not theirs to people who will take what it would be held very accountable, perhaps as far as treason
Blame the sport owners that buy off politicians, city councils, and then pull a Kroenke whenever it suits them- making intentional false representations throughout the tax money heist. Oh, and the bent municipal politicians that play along.
All this falls on what the plebs/serfs allow
“All this falls on what the plebs/serfs allow”
Found the Communist.
On one hand, I can understand why Aaron Nola took the $45 million guarantee as it is life-changing money. Also, the state of free agency doesn’t appear promising for players over the next few years. On the other hand, I can also see why the players are upset about the state of affairs in free agency. Nola’s contract extension probably doesn’t sit well within certain factions of the sport.
Aaron Nola has no more obligation to his union than he does to the Phillies organization. His decision to sign or not sign the extension comes down solely to himself and his loved ones.
Again, that selfish country bumpkin attitude is what has helped create the mess players are in. Nola’s a tool either way and he chose to be a tool for ownership, it’s not to be praised or defended
“he chose to be a tool for ownership”
He got $45 million in salary *guaranteed*. As in no matter what. You have a bizarrely twisted view of what constitutes being a “tool for ownership,”
The market remains kind to (seemingly) good 29 y/o SPs. Just ask Patrick Corbin and Nathan Eovaldi.
This seems shockingly low to me, and either means that Nola is exceedingly risk averse (to a fault), or isn’t confident in himself repeating his 2018.
Being scared of the FA market is one thing. But teams would be lining up to pay him $20M+ per year, especially if he hit free agency when he was originally scheduled to.
Add in the fact that (including his worst case for this year) he’s already made $9M+ in his career and this just doesn’t make sense for him.
My belief about the likelihood of Nola getting injured in the next three years just doubled.
How does a person convey a message that isn’t a pleasant one but is an honest concern that I have. Call me a worry wort, but I have always looked at Nola’s motion with fear and trepidation. I can’t take my eyes off that dreaded W and when you add his increasing velocity in the past couple of years to that the red flags are flying. I know that arm injuries are as difficult to predict as where a tornado will hit but Nola looks like central Oklahoma to me. This is Kerry Wood, Mark Prior and Stephen Strasburg all in one as far as throwing motion goes. May I please to be wrong and may he still be pitching when I am pushing up daisies, but could he harbor the same thoughts and those played into his decision to play it safe?
He looks like it, but the W isn’t correlated strongly with injuries. Plus, Chris Sale has looked like his arm is going to fly off for about 6 years now and he’s still (mostly) going.
I really don’t see it as crazy as you’re making it sound. He’s 25 and is now set to make a minimum of 50 million(ish) out of his career if this contract is it, and if he continues to be healthy and dominate he hits free agency at 30 with a chance to pull in another 20-25 million a year for 3+ years.
We’ve seen enough pitchers careers derailed by injuries, I bet a lot of those guys would love a do over and take that offer. He gets the best of both worlds in that he’ll never have to work again after he retires, and he still has a chance to make a lot more.
The downside to taking this deal is Patrick Corbin. The upside is Matt Harvey.
Nola must really like Philly b/c he left significant money on the table. I understand deals like this when a guy hasn’t yet made big money and didn’t sign for a lot, but that’s not Nola. As the 7th overall pick he signed for $3.3M. I get that he’s a pitcher and pitchers get hurt, but when guys like Garrett Richards get 2/$15 to recover from TJ do you really need to be super worried about injury?
Nola and Patrick Corbin both debuted as 22 year olds and are both coming off ~6 win seasons. And Nola’s first 4 years have been much more successful than Corbin’s. But Corbin just got 6/$140 ($23.3 AAV) as a free agent and Nola gave up 2 free agent years for $31M ($15.5 AAV). Philly got a deal.
I keep hoping there’s a no-trade clause or some other lifestyle-based reason to balance out the financial side.
Guys like Garret Anderson get paid because their team insured the contract and therefore got indemnified for the contract. Ie the team was paid for the injury so it wasn’t sunk money.
Year 1 arb Matt Harvey was coming off of a 4.4 fWAR season in 2015 and 6.5 fWAR in 2013 (he missed 2014, obviously). He was trending similar to Nola, albeit with more injury downside. He ultimately made ~$15mil in three years of arb and $11mil in year one of FA.
That’s the downside for Nola.
I see where he may have left significant money on the table, but that’s hardly a given.
This is pretty much the type of contract every team should be trying to pursue when they hit their arb years, or even before it. This contract literally takes him through to his age 30 season, which is exactly how long you should be willing to pay pitchers (maybe hitters too!), and they get him for cheaper than he probably would get AAV on the market for those couple of years.
The guaranteed money is nice for Nola if he has a lost year and he doesn’t advance his salary through arbitration. But if he puts up ERAs in the 3.50 range and locks down 12-15 wins per year, this is probably not that different than what he probably would be getting through arbitration. And that’s before what happens if he hits the market having put up some 4-5 win years, which probably nets him a Patrick Corbin-sized guarantee at age 29.
If you compare this to the Eugenio Suarez extension–which seemed like a fair deal for both sides, and which pays Suarez through his age-32 season with a team option for age-33–this one looks like it is very much in the team’s favor. Phillies fans should be very happy with this.
Phillies fans should be ecstatic a huge talent is sticking around through his 20s. This idea that they should be most excited because he took less money is…Like wtf so fans get out of that? A shared BUSINESS-gasm with the owner? He’d slaughter every fan’s family in the open for every penny they have, then piss on the bodies, if the letter of the law allowed
Nearly the whole site supporters your anti-owner take.
Its just you argue the matter very myopically, as if you cannot imagine any possible benefit to fans, other players, staff, or anyone else, to have MLB money used in a manner that fits value added. Clearly you can and are just trolling- everyone supports the anti-owner stance, just not the ‘arguing it so illogically it defeats the purpose’ approach.
I think the better way to think about this is: As a baseball fan who wants players to be compensated better. If I were a fan of this team, however, I would be ecstatic, since it gives my team a competitive advantage to have a possible league ace on such a cheap contract. These are the competing impulses that I expect many fans to have.
Pitchers don’t decline as much as they break. I wouldn’t have much more concern for signing a pitcher for their 30-34 seasons vs their 25-29 seasons.
(a) that’s not true, and you can prove it by looking at velo numbers for most pitchers across age, (b) even if it was, the chances of them breaking are higher as you get older and more frail.
Yea thats very backwards. In aggregate players peak out around age 27 and have steady, regular decline afterwards (and the age curve is only getting younger).
By ages 32, 33, etc., players (in the aggregate) are some 5-6 years into steady decline. Many injury issues do build in a fairly linear fashion, not just acute breaks, but steady wear and tear.
“But if he puts up ERAs in the 3.50 range and locks down 12-15 wins per year, this is probably not that different than what he probably would be getting through arbitration.”
This is less than he would be getting through arbitration if he puts up a 3.50 ERA and 12-15 wins every year. Gerrit Cole has comparable numbers, got $3.75M in his first arb year (Nola would have made either $4.5M or $6.75M in his first arb year) and just got $13.5M for his final arb year. Nola will be making $11.75M in what would have been his final arb year. With Nola’s higher first year salary and assuming those stats, he probably would have made something like $6.75M/$11M/$18M, which in total is $10M more than will be making in the first three years of this extension.
I can imagine the players who pay attention, more of those than ever, are seething right now. Wealthy kid from a major sports family in SEC country (he was already well up set for life) takes well below his value because reasons.
The owners seriously don’t have to do a thing to win this war. The stupid fans love them plus the stupid players are stupid…Helluva future being built
It’s interesting that you criticize someone for making their own decision, based on what you think should happen, when it doesn’t impact you at all.
Cool story, still a garbage decision
It may not impact us internet commenters but it does impact the other players. Read up on Gordie Howe in the NHL and how his reluctance to ask for more money set back NHL salaries for decades.
Gordie Howe didn’t owe anything to the team owner or to other players. Completely up to him if he wanted to ask for higher pay. If he was happy with his life and pay then good for him.
That’s exactly what Jack Adams told him every year when it was time to sign a new contract. History is doomed to repeat itself.
What kind of country bumpkin nonsense is that? That small minded, selfish mentality can burn in the dumb hell it came from and is exactly why labor has been getting clobbered across all industries for 50+ years now. He was in the ultra rare and invaluable position to do the most good he could do for the most possible people he could do it for, and he chose to be deaf, dumb, and blind to anything outside this tiny dumb bubble of reality. We need fewer of these people, they only made thing worse.
NHL did not have the money then
What?
The big, dark secret is that all labor issues impact all labor whether direct or indirect. We’re taught to think otherwise because they, and oh yes there is a “they,” want as many divisions as possible. The golden rule is to never side with management, but we’ve chosen to become that *insanely stupid* as a population to believe otherwise. I have no idea why, no idea what got people there, but it’s led to some serious decline over the past say 50 years except in things like work hours and production. It will forever disturb and disgust me.
You’re not wrong on this one- owners win easy, median pro players are generally pretty dumb (unserious education, head trauma, PEDs, substance abuse), median sport fans are generally Trumpy regressives.
Just disagree about the wealthy kid from SEC country thing- there is no reason players ought to gamble on their health necessarily. They can take guaranteed money in baseball and take risk on investments if they like- gambling on their health is not the only way for them to make money.
“Because reasons”
Well what were the reasons? This is an actual decision he made; presumably, there were actual reasons behind it. At some point, if players keep making decisions you consider “irrational,” you have to consider the possibility that you don’t understand the market and the people within it as well as you think you do.
Jeff, you’re a top writer so all respect due, but please focus on a more progressive angle on MLB employment issues rather than the FA PR meme.
Nola took the money for a large number of reasons- its not telling the story to focus only on Free Agency money. Why not instead focus on 6 years of cost control and what that means for a pitcher? Or focus on antiquated, owner-friendly arbitration process? There were other major flaws in MLBs compensation system that set Nola’s baseline for negotiation (and negotiation leverage) low- to harp again on the FA theme means readers are getting this noxious agenda pushing in nearly every article.
There are real progressive issues to promote with respect to MLB employee rights, CBA matters, health science, etc.
Honestly, you guys ought to be a bit embarrassed to go on and on about big money FA without campaigning for a living wage – denied to the vast majority of pro baseball players.
Very few articles written for guys who blow out there arms before their pay day, or on the time value of money. If guys want to be more risk averse, they can take their guaranteed baseball money and invest- they do not have to bet on their arms staying healthy just to be pawns into the run up to the next CBA. Boras/CAA PR teams save the tears for the ‘LoMo might have to move his family in March’ nonsense. Its a bit disingenuous that more writers aren’t admitting ‘yea, we are carrying the water on these theme a bit because its almost CBA season and some people are tying to push out Clark.’ But your stuff is top shelf and its obvious that you’re reluctant to embrace this tonedeaf, regressive FA spin.
Dear Jeff, please do anything you want with your writing except what the OP says. If the choice is between retirement and listening to this, then retire, Puff pieces or this? Puff pieces. But really, please keep on just as you have been.
I hate to break this to you, but in case you haven’t noticed, there has been a series on the arbitration system going on in the past few weeks. Actually, there’s an article on the front page, and your comment ain’t in it.
Looks like you’re the only one focusing only on free agency money and ignoring the arbitration process.
Ive seen and elsewhere complimented Sheryl’s series on arbitration. So far she is the lone voice on it- while literally every Fangraphs author is peddling the “something morally and ethically troubling is happening because FA spending isn’t increasing as much as normal’ meme.
Many commentators are asking for a more progressive balance.
What are you suggesting, that Sheryl Ring is fighting against the oppressive tyranny of Fangraphs instead of being paid to work for them and produce content that Fangraphs wants her to produce?
No- Im saying that despite many conformists shouting down any and all critiques (saying “no one cares, give it up” ) fangraphs actually has noticed that many commentators are complaining about their anti-progressive FA focus.
So fangraphs has responded by covering some other employment issues a little bit, including the on-point series by Sheryl arbitration- but the balance is still way off.
And you don’t think they’re just putting on a show to hide their advocacy of big-money agenda?
Wow, you’re really a gullible little fucker.
Another arrogant, insulting missive from the non-member who is unable or unwilling to grasp that an article he disagrees with is not evidence of the writer having an agenda or being intellectually dishonest. Yawn.
Youd have to be pretty thick to not realize fangraphs is pushing a ‘spend money in FA’ PR campaign.
Jeff himself discussed the ‘agents are planting the FA crisis them’ issue in a chat, stating that agents are putting out the meme and quotes, leading some journalists to pick it up.
I don’t think there’s a question that a certain amount of “collective caution” is going around. Whether that’s actually planned, or the product of multiple owners just coming to the same conclusions independently, only they know. But, from Nola’s perspective, maybe taking in this rather large amount of money guaranteed, even if betting on himself might be more lucrative, isn’t the worst idea. Stuff happens. And if he’s really healthy and going great guns, the Phillies might come back to him with a second extension. In the meantime, he’s paid an insurance premium in less projected future earnings in return for what is empirically a ton of money.
But we ought to note, from the owner’s perspective, even the perception that something is going on is helping them.
No, we know it’s planned. It can’t be proven in court because it’s easy to hide, but we’re nothing but enabling idiots to pretend this is anything but planned.
Say what you want about the current FA market, but the caution is not applying to projected-above-average, pre-30 SPs. Just ask Patrick Corbin and Nathan Eovaldi.
I know that there are a number of qualifiers there, but it’s possible that we can take the “pre-30” variable out of the equation, pending what Dallas Keuchel’s market has been. I’d expect his contract to be closer to, but short of, Jake Arrieta than he is to Lance Lynn.
Barring something catastrophic happening to Nola this year that ends his career it seems he traded a lot of expected future income for not that much in added security. Even if he pitched poorly this year he would still most likely get a raise next year. He could also win an arbitration case and get paid even more than is listed for his arb years. I suppose I can’t say for sure what I would do is offered $45 million guaranteed, but seems like he is taking a loss here. I am happy with players making the choice they feel is best for them but this is a head scratcher for me.
How much is “enough”? To at least 99.999% of the people on this planet, $45M USD is more money than one could spend in a lifetime. He’s set for life. There’s no reason to feel that he has somehow been “ripped off.”
Pretty much – $45m means his grandkids will never have to worry about money.
If he’d made $80m over that stretch instead…his grandkids would worry about money slightly less, I guess?
Would you think if Trout signs a $45M/10year deal, he wouldn’t have been “ripped off” since he’s set for life?
I personally think $10M is “enough” to set me for life and that is basically Nola had guaranteed before signing this extension.
Trout isn’t a pitcher.
If Matt Harvey took this deal after 2015, would he have been “ripped off”?
It is funny that you mention Harvey because that is one example that shows why Nola taking the deal is weird.
Even Harvey, whose performances in his arb 1-3 years were pretty bad, got ‘raises’ during his arbitration process. (Similar to Richards)
So if Nola performs in the next three years like Harvey did in ’16-’18,
then Nola’s payment would be something like $6.6M-$7.4M-$7.9M during the arb years.
Add a $11M/1Yr deal to that and we got ~$33M.
Even in this pretty pessimistic scenario, this extension only increased Nola’s career earnings from $38M to $50M.
So yeah, again, I just don’t think it was worth it.
This is where the ‘we are pretending to be progressive’ argument falls apart on player wages.
You cannot pretend that ownership greed is excessive, inhumane, and built on a system of exploitation and then say that every Bonds, Clemens, Trout, Big Papi, type ought to be paid owner-level windfalls.
The entire non-millionaire baseball workforce suffers so that the riches can be allocated to a few: owners and future owner mega stars. All this griping about what David Freese earns is just window dressing to the push to kick out Tony Clark and let big money dominate the pay equilibrium even more.
I suppose one rejoinder could be that he could donate any additional earnings to charity (or perhaps even start his own foundation). $50M+ could do a heck of a lot of good in the world.
Why don’t those of you that seem to enjoy thinking this way flip it and consider the very small number of people who are paying these guys? When is it “enough” to those scumbags? Also, why is it so hard for sports fans to look at this side of the issue? Where does this unwillingness come from? Is it because you don’t see the numbers nearly as often, if ever? It’s so mentally lazy
I teach insurance at a 4 year university and students are blown away when they realize how little insurance companies, property and casualty mostly, actually truly make in profit. Everyone always thinks their car insurer is swimming in profits. In reality it is rare that profits on the pure insurance side are strong. Most companies pay out in loses more than the premiums they charge, but invest well enough to post solid profits anyway. I do not think baseball team profits are like P/C insurers, but I know it’s not as high as you SenorGato think it is. Cry over nurses and school teachers they have more important jobs to the survival of man on earth.
^ That post is a decent enough example of how shot the education system is.
Wow horrible comment.
Ive worked for a sports mogul for over a decade, we are talking 100s of millions of profit annually, value of club has doubled and thats to say nothing of the tax money match funds, the tax breaks, the property just handed over, etc.
Baseball teams profit massively.
“Wow horrible comment.
Ive worked for a sports mogul for over a decade, we are talking 100s of millions of profit annually, value of club has doubled and thats to say nothing of the tax money match funds, the tax breaks, the property just handed over, etc.
Baseball teams profit massively.”
Taking your claim at face value (which is difficult, considering how anti-owner you are) do you think your experience is typical for sports team owners in all markets?
Yes generally. The smaller the market the greater the owner leverage typically, while the larger the market the more big money corporate partners.
Lots of Kroenke’s out there, plenty of Man City’s, where do sport owners not make tax money plays? Check out how many sport owners are expanding into property deals- not just stadiums, but real estate. Most of this stuff is really, really bad.
“To at least 99.999% of the people on this planet, $45M USD is more money than one could spend in a lifetime.”
The collective experience of lottery winners proves that your assertion is extremely wrong. 99% of Americans could spend $45M in less than a week.
Has anybody thought to factor in age?
Nola is 25 and will be 30 when he hits free Agency. Hardly too old for a 9-figure 6-7 year deal.
(Keep an eye on Trevor Bauer, who has refused all extensions and gone straight to arbitration both years. He’s older (28) and headed for free agency in 2020 so his fate will be a good clue to both what Nola might have faced if he’d refused the extension and what he can aspire to when he does hit FA.)
And Philly isn’t exactly a cheap outfit; if he stays healthy and plays to his potential he might get a big extension to replace the options.
If he’s comfortable with the city and the team there is some value in staying in his comfort zone. Peace of mind has value.
Also keep in mind that Bauer is on the record as saying he’ll never take a multi-year deal. I like the comp, but that might throw a wrench into it.
That’s why I brought him up.
He’s the road not taken, as far as Nola is concerned.
“If he’s comfortable with the city and the team there is some value in staying in his comfort zone.”
This is a false dichotomy. He would have stayed in Philly with the Phillies if he had refused this extension and gone year-to-year.
Maybe it’s just me, but the current state of FA doesn’t seem to be applying to above-average-to-elite SPs hitting the market at 28 like Nola would be.
Patrick Corbin just got 6/$140mil. He’s got one stand out season, two solid seasons and greater perceived injury risk today than Nola has.
Nathan Eovaldi just got 4/$68mil. While he may have found something last year, his track record should be described as murky, at best.
Nola is coming off of two all-star seasons and is tracking to be worth more than even Corbin was this year (assuming nothing disastrous health-wise). If he made this deal as a result of his read on the FA market, I think he’s misread his own potential value even factoring in the current market.
More likely, he’s a regular human being and figures everything will be mostly fine. He’s not assuming that his arm will fall off at the elbow tomorrow. Or in 2022. Or 2023. So he loses two years of FA in exchange for money now. He could still possibly cash in again in 2023, and he’s at least given himself great security in the event of career tragedy.
He took a discount. Potentially a big one. If he was motivated by today’s market, and not by personal security, I think he’s made a misstep. The market is still incredibly kind to 29 y/o like Corbin and Eovaldi, and (assumedly) less so toward 31 y/o Dallas Keuchels.
I think Keuchel’s market is more about his injuries and declining performance over the last three seasons than his age – Happ did pretty damn well for himself at 36.
I agree. Keuchel’s lack of a market is because of Keuchel-specific reasons. Kershaw just got a $31M AAV going into his age 31 season.
Given the way some of the pre-FA contract extensions have gone (Paul Goldschmidt being a great example), I’m surprised more agents aren’t pushing for performance bonuses in the FA years of these deals. I know they are limited to what items can be included but IP, starts, CY/MVP votes – you would think they would push for something like that for Nola.
Seems like a lot of comments on the general state of economics in the game. I agree that in the short term view, player salaries are not keeping up with owner’s cash flows. But… how long do you think the cable TV gravy train keeps on chugging? I think that model is going to start breaking down as cable loses subscribers. Also I’m not sure the baseball fan base is expanding. Its not dying, but I’m pretty sure they won’t be able to keep filling seats at steadily increasing ticket prices, especially with younger people. Entertainment options are expanding–there’s competition. More and more citizens are opposed to funding new ballparks (or other corporate gift packages like Amazon took). Revenue might hit a plateau very soon. Then what?
Sorry, so based on the potential for declining revenues one day we should be cool with employers colluding against their labor force and hoarding profits?
No I just think they are becoming bearish about the long term revenue streams so long term contracts are even riskier than they already were.
Two thoughts.
1. Given how crappy free agency had been, I would one I got this contract just mail it in and spend time with the kids. A little more performance today may just get you injured and if not, so what? You have a lot of money.
2. I am always amazed at people bitter that a person with a talent that the market values gets paid a lot, and yet admire those who exploit silly government policies (like subsidizing stadium construction) or are wealthy because their father staked then give hundred million. And then they claim they love the market.
“It could be that Nola just really likes Philadelphia.”
That can’t possibly be it.
At his income level, Philly has some very nice neighborhoods. Plus good hospitals and universities and other amenities. It’s not exactly Gotham City.
Honestly, anyone making over $50k or so can do lot worse than Philly.
Philadelphia is not that bad. I have a niece who lives there and she really likes it. And then there are the cheesesteaks.
I think Nola made a big mistake here. As others have said in the comments, he was likely to make close to $6M/$8M/$11.75M the next three years in arbitration even if he suffered a serious injury or regression in performance during that time. With average injury/regression luck, he was set to crush those figures. And he has already made $4.9M in his career and was guaranteed at least an additional $4.5M in arbitration this season. He was already going to be “set for life”.
Also, the free agent market seems much healthier for late-20s starting pitchers than it is in general. Kershaw just got a $31M AAV coming off a worse season than Nola’s (but with significantly more impressive seasons before 2018), with much more significant injury concerns, and at one year older than Nola would have been entering free agency before this extension. Corbin just got a $140M guarantee coming off a similar season as Nola’s (but with less impressive seasons before 2018), plus he’s had Tommy John Surgery and is the same age as Nola would have been entering free agency. Eovaldi just got a $68M guarantee going into his age-29 season with TWO TJ surgeries in his past AND a two-month long absence in 2018 for loose bodies in the elbow, with only a one-month-long track record of success.
Based on these cases, if Nola had three more 200-inning, 3.00 FIP seasons he probably would have been looking at a floor of something like six years and $180M.
I always get nervous when pitchers bet against themselves. Thinking Josh Becket here. Still, the way FA is now players have to take the money for extensions. Not enough of a payoff waiting especially for pitchers being one pitch away from TJS
I’m pro-labor, but I’m not sure I agree that young guys taking the sure money and opting out of the free agent market is a bad trend. Right now, most of these deals are huge successes, which suggests that teams should be a lot more aggressive trying to make them. If 50% of these deals are failing, and the other 50% is providing an average of 100% surplus value, we’ve reached a stable equilibrium. Smart teams should start betting big on even their league-average guys.
The Cardinals and Kolten Wong/Paul DeJong/Jedd Gyorko are a great example. The Cards have 3 players who play 2 positions (2B/SS) at league average/average-plus level, each under contract for ~25-35 million over 5-6 years (plus options). Teams should be making as many of these deals as possible, even if they can’t fit them all on the field at the same time! This is a great way to allocate $80-100 million, compared to one Dexter Fowler free agency deal (which is now being used as a reason not to make an offer to Bryce Harper).
But if you’re a middling player, waiting until you reach free agency is a bad idea – the difference between $30 million and $120 million is 4x. The difference between a $4 million arb deal and a $30 million extension is ~8x. That added 2x is significant, but not as big as the life-changing 8x improvement in your financial prospects.
Finally, the MLB union should fight to get these surplus salary dollars allocated *down* the chain (to minimum earners and minor leaguers), not *up* the chain (to end-of-career veterans on the free agent market). The more players earn in their first 2 seasons (and their minor league careers), the easier it is for them to negotiate from a position of power. That’s why teams usually offer these extensions *before* the player’s first arbitration payday – the player is a lot more impressed by $30 million before he’s made his first $5 million in cumulative career earnings. If the MLB minimum was, say, $2 million, we’d see a lot more 1st year players getting offseason extensions (like DeJong did). That would ensure that even the cheapest teams were spending a minimum of $50 million per year, as well.