ALDS Game One Review: Minnesota
Francisco Liriano pitched like an ace and was in line for the win through five innings. Unfortunately for the Twins, there are nine innings in a baseball game, and after the sixth inning, things came unraveled and the New York Yankees took control.
Michael Cuddyer’s two run home run, a small-ball special run scored by Orlando Hudson, and Liriano’s five shutout innings left the Twins with an 85.1% win probability entering the sixth inning. The Twins slow and excruciating fall from grace came primarily on two pitches. The first came on a two out Curtis Granderson triple in that sixth inning which took nearly 30% off the Twins win probability, lowering it to 36.5%. The Twins managed to tie the game on possibly the unlikeliest bases-loaded walk in postseason history (Danny Valencia off CC Sabathia). The Twins bullpen couldn’t hold the tie, though, as Mark Teixeira deivered what would be the death blow in the 7th with a two-run, barely fair home run off Jesse Crain. The Yanks took a 6-4 lead and the Twins win expectancy was down to 21.5%. The Yankees bullpen proceeded to close the door on game one, primarily behind a four-out save from the legendary Mariano Rivera.
For the Twins, Liriano simply couldn’t get past the third time through the order. The first two times through, Liriano struck out five batters and allowed only four baserunners. The third time through – entirely in the sixth inning – the Yankees went 4-7 with a walk against Liriano and scored four runs.
At the plate, the Twins left handed batters were mostly neutralized. Denard Span, Joe Mauer, Jim Thome, and Jason Kubel combined to go 2-15 with three walks and a hit by pitch. The first three names in particular comprise much of the Twins offense, and even the solid performances from Michael Cuddyer (2-4, HR, +.153 WPA) and Danny Valencia (1-3, BB, +.219 WPA) couldn’t provide enough offense to top the Yankees. The Twins lefties missed chances in both the 7th and 8th to tie or take the lead. Both innings saw two runners on and two outs, but neither Jim Thome nor Denard Span could reach against the Yankees bullpen.
Outside of Crain, the bullpen was solid. Brian Fuentes, Jose Mijares, and Jon Rauch combined for three scoreless- and baserunner-free innings. Fuentes pitched 1.2 innings and may be unavailable for tomorrow’s game. None of the other pitchers threw more than an inning and should be ready for action tomorrow.
There has been a negative reaction regarding Ron Gardenhire’s decision to bunt with Orlando Hudson up and a runner on in the first inning. Indeed, the successful bunt resulted in -.018 WPA for the Twins and Sabathia managed to retire Joe Mauer and Delmon Young to end the inning without allowing a run. But Gardenhire would have to call for this move over 50 times for it to cost him a full win (admittedly, this is not outside the realm of possibility). Personally, I would’ve preferred the aggressive play in allowing Hudson to swing away, but we also can’t ignore the possibilities of results such as a bunt single or a reach on error. The bunt probably isn’t a good play there, but it hardly cost the Twins the game and it is a defensible call in a low run environment.
Finally, we close with…
THE CRAIG SAGER SUIT WATCH
This series has been blessed with one Craig Sager as the sideline reporter. Sager’s suits are legendary, as a simple Google Image Search will reveal.
Today, Sager went with the puce suit. In case you don’t know what Puce is (I didn’t either), it’s this:
Craig Sager does. My pick of Periwinkle was slightly off tonight. My guess for game 2 is Vertical Stripes.
Jack Moore's work can be seen at VICE Sports and anywhere else you're willing to pay him to write. Buy his e-book.
Correction…you mean 5 out save by Mariano Rivera (phantom catch that should have been a out)
Why is it the Yankees hitters always get a smaller strike zone than the opposition, and Yankee pitchers always get a larger strike zone than the opposition? It’s so blatant as to be ridiculous. Sabathia’s zone tonight was a baseball wider on each side of the plate than Liriano got. The two different zones ran up Liriano’s pitch count and was the single biggest factor in the game.
The only possible explanation for the repeated examples of this occuring, over and over, is that MLB has decided the Yankees must stay in the post season at all costs. The Yankees did not win that game, it was awarded to them.
when cc walked in the run, two knee shots in the zone were called balls-my, my grapes taste sour
They were borderline at best, but CC’s main problem was Jorge Posada. That man has become a total liability at catcher. He didn’t frame a single ball well all night, and if you watch the way he received those pitches he wasn’t giving the umpire much of an option.
Do you even look at the pitchtrack or the pitchFX data?
strike zone was terribly inconsistent Tex should have never got that home run Crain was squeezed bad and the ridiculous backdoor slider call on Thome that had him swinging at the same thing out of the zone the next pitch. Twins still should have been able to pull it out but umps hurt us yet again, though it probably wont go down that way with the east coast bias and the “phantom catch” that resulted in absolutely nothing, that people other places are comparing to Cuzzi blowing Mauers double last year. I would have been so much happier being blown out it is so painful to watch the same Twins VS Yankees playoff game time after time where the Twins get a lead and blow it.
forgot to add Riveras phantom 3-0 strike to Span that was the exact same spot the last 3 balls had been.
you were saying?
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/RiveraSpan.png
@Captain
What he was saying was that the 1st pitch and the 4th pitch were in the exact same horizontal location (the 4th pitch was actually more inside). Good umpiring behind the plate is about consistency.
fail
So it’s okay the umps blew a call in the 9th because the Twins didn’t tie/win the game? Yeah, right. If the roles are reversed and the Yanks come back and win the game, you’d be on here whining about how the Yankees paid off the umps. Give it a break.
This has nothing to do with the umps and everything to do with the Twins not coming through with RISP. I know Hardy bats 9th for a reason, but with 2 outs and the bases loaded, at least make contact on the off chance that something good will happen. I’m a die-hard Twins fan, but the umps didn’t lose this game, the Yankees won it.
Hey…I paid GOOD MONEY for those umps last night. We’re the New York Yankees. We’re supposed to win, and we’re not above ‘purchasing’ a little insurance if necessary. Phil Cuzzi was a bit obvious last year, so’s I just told the home plate umpire to take care of business when necessary, if you know what I mean, and presto, we’re up 1-0. Can’t leave these things to chance, that would be too…sporting.
What about defense?????
I thought the Twins 2B and CF defense was quite poor…..
Twins 2B is great; they have one of the best infield defenses in the game. Center field is poor, but Span didn’t really have to run. Everything was pretty much right at him.
I’m trying very hard to remember an instance where the Twins second-base defense was even questionable, let alone poor.
Hudson obviously should’ve jumped higher to get Posada’s hit in the 6th inning.
Crawford’s(?) strike zone was shifted to the right (from the pitcher’s perspective) the whole game. This is why his automatic strike call for Rivera to Span on the 4th pitch was so inconsistent. That said, Liriano was consistently throwing his pitches (from observing) slightly farther to the right than Sabathia’s pitches. Crawford was quite consistent overall, I thought (and I am a Twin’s fan.) Anyone who thought Liriano looked like an elite pitcher, however, was blinded by statistics. He was nibbling the whole game, appearing afraid to let the ball get hit – the same problem he’s shown all year. That, probably more than bad luck, explains his BABIP. What gets hit is nearly always a mistake. With his stuff, he should be a lot closer to where Halliday was at last night (27 outs for 100 pitches) than 17 outs per 100 pitches. That is not ace material.
ps – I am not a Cuddyer basher, but that ground ball by Cano in the 6th is one that Morneau at least knocks down over 75% of the time. It wasn’t hit that hard or that far to the left. Cuddyer was completely flat-footed.
Posada’s line drive should have been caught….and Span’s miss of the flyball is an error in my book….
And why didn’t Jack Moore even discuss defense?
When did Span miss a fly ball?
@DavidM
An ump can consistently call strikes as balls and be consistent. That doesn’t make him good. There is such a thing as consistently bad.
Being consistently inconsistent is not ideal, but it’s better than being consistently bad.