| 4:01 |
Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to our chat for ALDS Game 1.
|
| 4:01 |
Ben Clemens: Today it will be Dan and I manning the chat stations (definitely just our computers).
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| 4:01 |
Ben Clemens: If you’d like a preview of the series, conveniently enough, Dan wrote it:
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| 4:01 |
 Dan Szymborski: And I am here!
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| 4:01 |
Ben Clemens: Er, he’s previewing the later ALDS game
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| 4:02 |
Ben Clemens: That’s Jake on the early one
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| 4:02 |
Dan Szymborski: (Sorry I’m late, I was making a tweet for my banned friend Rich)
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| 4:02 |
Ben Clemens: We’ll take a few questions before we start, and this game should be a blast
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| 4:02 |
Oscar the Grouch: How 2020 would it be for the Marlins to beat the Astros in the World Series?
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| 4:02 |
Ryan: Just a non-playoff question while we wait for the game to start: Which GM position would you rather have: Anaheim or Philadelphia? I might prefer the former, simply because the Pujols contract is finally nearing its end, and building a winner around Trout would be gratifying.
|
| 4:02 |
Dan Szymborski: At least then everyone will hate the 16 team playoffs!
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| 4:02 |
Ben Clemens: I would rather be the Philly GM
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| 4:03 |
Ben Clemens: Working with Arte Moreno seems…. not great
|
| 4:04 |
Guest: Which team’s window is in greater danger of closing? Astros (OFers hitting free agency this year, Altuve declining, no Verlander in 2021) or Cubs (Lester, Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Schwarber all free agents after 2021)?
|
| 4:04 |
Ben Clemens: Oh, Cubs for me for sure
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| 4:04 |
Ben Clemens: The Astros have interesting young pitching
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| 4:04 |
Ben Clemens: The Cubs have whatever the exact opposite of that is
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| 4:04 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m definitely worried about the Cubs
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| 4:05 |
Dan Szymborski: Would the rumor mill be hopping about Theo Epstein departing if they had any internal hopes about their window?
|
| 4:05 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah for a team that burst onto the scene as a ‘we are making a dynasty to last until the end days’
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| 4:05 |
Ben Clemens: They really were a LOT more aggressive trading away pieces of that dynasty than I expected
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| 4:06 |
Darth NateR: Did anything you saw in the Wild Card round change the way you think about these teams?
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| 4:07 |
Ben Clemens: Not particularly for me
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| 4:07 |
Dan Szymborski: Unless they went and all robbed a liquor store, I don’t think a three game series could change any opinion
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| 4:07 |
Ben Clemens: Someone could get hurt
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| 4:07 |
Josh R: So all 7 Central teams are gone in 1 round. Does this say anything to you beyond small sample weirdness? How do you adjust the Central’s awesome individual pitching performances this year? (Bieber, Bauer, Burnes, Darivsh, etc)?
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| 4:07 |
Ben Clemens: I think the Marlins got worse, for example.
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| 4:07 |
Dan Szymborski: The Central objectively appeared to be weaker, but results of three-game series isn’t really a real way to demonstrate it.
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| 4:08 |
Jkim: I asked that question about the league adjustments b/c when I looked at the wRC+ numbers in the Central teams… ouch
Only 1 elite hitting team in White Sox, 1 average in Twins and the rest were well below 100 wRC+
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| 4:09 |
Ben Clemens: Which came first, the chicken or the egg?
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| 4:09 |
Ben Clemens: It’s an interesting question, of course
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| 4:10 |
Ben Clemens: But the bad hitting could be a result of how many great pitchers they had to face, so on so forth
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| 4:11 |
Geoff Williams: Worst bullpen of the eight remaining teams?
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| 4:11 |
Dan Szymborski: Marlins maybe?
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| 4:11 |
Ben Clemens: I think definitely Marlins
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| 4:12 |
Ben Clemens: I was writing up their preview and I thought uh
|
| 4:12 |
Ben Clemens: I wonder if I am underestimating how bad they are
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| 4:13 |
Dan Szymborski: They have some real giant holes.
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| 4:13 |
Ben Clemens: Best emoji jerseys though
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| 4:13 |
Ben Clemens: In boxberger
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| 4:14 |
Ben Clemens: I really do enjoy watching Chris Bassitt
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| 4:14 |
Ben Clemens: Latest in a long line of ‘that guy is terrible but he’s really good’ pitchers
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| 4:15 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, Box Burger was legendary
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| 4:15 |
5 Run Homer: I definitely forgot that this series would be in Dodger Stadium
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| 4:15 |
Dan Szymborski: Every one’s in the wrong place!
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| 4:16 |
Zack Greinke :/: What do you make of the Astros not starting Greinke in game 1 or 2? Could it be that he doesn’t feel comfortable coming back on short rest (whereas perhaps LMJ or others do) so this is the way for them to maximize total innings from their best starters over a 5-day stretch?
|
| 4:16 |
Ben Clemens: There’s just no reason to short rest it, I don’t think, in this series
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| 4:16 |
Ben Clemens: It’s suuuuuch a disadvantage in the second series
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| 4:16 |
Ben Clemens: And how much better is Greinke on short rest than a bullpen game kinda deal?
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| 4:17 |
Ben Clemens: It’s different from previous years of short rest where the travel days mean you can catch back up to regular rest
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| 4:17 |
Ben Clemens: If you start someone on short rest in G5, they only get one start in the next series unless they make BOTH starts on short rest
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| 4:17 |
Ben Clemens: That’s a huge cost that didn’t previously exist
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| 4:18 |
The fighting squirrels: Am I mistaken, or were the Astros making solid contact that innings and just getting unlucky. Or is that just how a Bassitt start goes?
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| 4:19 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah that’s kinda Bassitt for you
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| 4:19 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, he’s not going to strike out 12 dudes a game!
|
| 4:19 |
Ben Clemens: He does a really good job keeping batters from hitting the ball at dangerous angles
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| 4:19 |
Ben Clemens: Which sounds like
|
| 4:19 |
Ben Clemens: Pretty boring!
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| 4:20 |
Ben Clemens: But even in that first inning, there were hard hits, but none of those had any shot at being truly dangerous
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| 4:21 |
5 Run Homer: Is that… by design from Bassitt? That sounds really hard and really risky
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| 4:21 |
Oscar the Grouch: Are walk-up songs vetted by MLB? If the entire A’s lineup decided to use “Bang Bang” as their walk-up songs, could anybody stop them?
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| 4:21 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure about the rules. I’d like someone’s walkup music to be the broadcaster calls for home runs the opposing pitchers allowed
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| 4:22 |
Ben Clemens: Dan might know the answer to this question better than me, but I kind of think it’s “by design” in that he just wouldn’t be a major league pitcher if he weren’t deceptive
|
| 4:22 |
Ben Clemens: A better plan would be to turn into Gerrit Cole
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| 4:23 |
Jkim: Dodger Stadium Organist Dieter Ruehle has been playing stuff like “I Saw the Sign” when Reddick was batting so you can bet that the organist will play some hilarious sign-stealing/trashcan banging related songs this series
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| 4:24 |
Jkim: How would the Dodgers staff as a whole being really really contact-driven affect them at Globe Life Park? Especially after Ferguson went down, most of the Dodger pitchers have been incredibly soft-contact driven over missing bats Urias – 3.27 ERA/3.72FIP 7.36 K/9 6.9% HR/FB 32.9!! GB% Graterol – 3.09 ERA 3.41 FIP 5.01 K/9 6.7 HR/FB 62.3 GB% Treinen 3.86 ERA 3.15 FIP 7.71 K/9 9.1 HR/FB 64.0 GB% May – 2.57 ERA 4.62 FIP 7.07 K/9 21.4!!!HR/FB 54.7% GB
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| 4:24 |
Ben Clemens: This is an interesting question, particularly since we don’t know much about Globe Life
|
| 4:25 |
Oscar the Grouch: it really is the perfect situation to troll the astros
|
| 4:25 |
Ben Clemens: I’d maybe be more worried about Urias in Minute Maid if they were playing there; fly ball lefty facing a lineup presumably jammed with righties with the short porch
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| 4:25 |
Ben Clemens: But even then it’s not the biggest effect in the world
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| 4:25 |
Ben Clemens: Minute Maid’s park factors by handedness are hardly even interesting
|
| 4:27 |
Ben Clemens: Not that park factors don’t matter but I think people overrate them
|
| 4:27 |
wonder mike: Who has the worse future: Cubs or Astros?
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| 4:27 |
Dan Szymborski: I think Cubs
|
| 4:27 |
5 Run Homer: Between Matt Olson and Ramon Laureano, the A’s are an incredibly handsome team
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| 4:28 |
Ben Clemens: The Yusmeiro Petit disrespect jeeeeeez
|
| 4:28 |
Ben Clemens: Right after I say Bassitt is good at avoiding dangerous launch angles, that Tucker hit was suuuuper dangerous
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| 4:29 |
David K: is it me or is Frenchy a half decent announcer? We know Orsillo is terrific. That said, the whole what a job this manager has done and ignoring front offices is a annoying trope by the announcers.
|
| 4:29 |
Dan Szymborski: Frenchy isn’t bad really.
|
| 4:30 |
Ben Clemens: I like him! I think he’s actually really good when he covers the Braves
|
| 4:30 |
Dan Szymborski: The problem with Frenchy is he just wasn’t a good player. But I enjoy the Statcast crew and Frenchy was a much better hitter than all of ’em!
|
| 4:30 |
Dan Szymborski: It does feel weird to have Orsillo now without Grant
|
| 4:30 |
Ben Clemens: Which isn’t always the case for former players covering their own teams
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| 4:31 |
Ben Clemens: They didn’t really say why they put which pitch where, but that graphic was a good way of showing that Bassitt throws everything
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| 4:32 |
wonder mike: I think worse hitters make better broadcasters. See: Duane Kuiper
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| 4:32 |
Dan Szymborski: A-Rod was an awesome hitter. That is all.
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| 4:32 |
Ben Clemens: Keith Hernandez is an excellent announcer, but very little of that has to do with his knowledge of baseball I don’t think
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| 4:32 |
Ben Clemens: It’s mostly just how good he is at being Keith Hernandez
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| 4:33 |
Ben Clemens: Well, right after we laud Frenchy, he says “They know how to play in October.”
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| 4:34 |
Dan Szymborski: For the “What Dorky Stuff is Szymborski Up To?” File
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| 4:34 |
Dan Szymborski: 
|
| 4:34 |
Jeff: Too many balls hit to Lamb
|
| 4:34 |
Dan Szymborski: I’ve been disappointed the A’s ended up playing him so much after picking him up.
|
| 4:35 |
Sonny: Keith Hernandez is easily top 3 at being Keith Hernandez
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| 4:35 |
Ben Clemens: I would argue that Shaq might actually be better at being Keith Hernandez.
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| 4:35 |
David K: Ron Darling is great with Cohen and Hernandez but his postseason work on tbs is pretty damn bad imo.
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| 4:35 |
Dan Szymborski: A-Rod is so bad that he’s not even top 3 at being A-Rod
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| 4:35 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah I think that Ron works well off of Keith and Gary Cohen because he really knows his Mets stuff
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| 4:36 |
Dan Szymborski: I do think people underrate the difficulty of broadcasting with different people.
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| 4:36 |
Ben Clemens: And Keith handles the whimsy
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| 4:36 |
Alex: Per basesball savant, Laureano shifts to the opposite field of the hitter side in center, which much must be unusual. Do you think he just feels he gets better reads at that slight angle? Or is it batted-ball location related?
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| 4:36 |
Ben Clemens: Let me take a quick look at this
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| 4:36 |
Ben Clemens: I’d assume that’s normal in center though
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| 4:36 |
5 Run Homer: I feel like Kyle Tucker has been right behind Josh Reddick for that outfield spot for five years and now they’re both here
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| 4:36 |
Oscar the Grouch: Steve Cohen is better than A-Rod at being A-Rod
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| 4:37 |
wonder mike: anyone see the photo of A-Rod in his bathtub this morning?
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| 4:37 |
Dan Szymborski: Why is this a thing?
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| 4:37 |
Oscar the Grouch: Who else would the A’s play besides Lamb? Kemp or Pinder, I guess? Feels like neither of them have as much upside.
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| 4:37 |
David K: Worse play by play guy guy ever John Sterling or Hawk Harrelson?
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| 4:37 |
Dan Szymborski: Hawk you could at least make fun of
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| 4:37 |
Ben Clemens: I think they have to play Lamb against righties, Pinder at third against righties just seems silly
|
| 4:37 |
Justin Verseaer: How amazing would Derek Jeter be at being A-rod?
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| 4:37 |
Ben Clemens: He’d be worse at it but get more praise for it.
|
| 4:38 |
Dan Szymborski: Well, he couldn’t field…
|
| 4:38 |
wonder mike: for reference:
just enjoying a bath, the way you do  5 Oct 2020
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| 4:38 |
Sonny: I found myself listening to the Yankees radio broadcast constantly this year and I have no earthly reason why.
|
| 4:38 |
Ben Clemens: I like Sterling!
|
| 4:38 |
Dan Szymborski: What kind of bath analysis does A-Rod have?
|
| 4:38 |
Ben Clemens: His voice is very baseball-y to me, even though I’m not a Yankees fan at all
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| 4:38 |
Dan Szymborski: “To make a bath hotter, you want to turn on the cold water so that the hot water feels hotter after the cold water.”
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| 4:39 |
Ben Clemens: Dan that’s a joke but I’m in favor of doing that
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| 4:39 |
Ben Clemens: Hot-cold-hot is a great way to feel very warm
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| 4:39 |
Ben Clemens: Not with the water IN the tub, but if you were, say, in a hot tub in the snow
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| 4:39 |
Dan Szymborski: “No More Tears shampoo means that you can eat it. I put it on my cereal every day.”
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| 4:40 |
Dan Szymborski: I hate when I’m getting a haircut and I’m asked what “product” I use.
|
| 4:40 |
Dan Szymborski: Uhh…shampoo? Soap?
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| 4:40 |
Dan Szymborski: I actually use No More Tears shampoo because I have a tendency to pour shampoo directly into my eye.
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| 4:40 |
Ben Clemens: As someone who uses hair product, the question is not actually all that much more useful to me
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| 4:40 |
Ben Clemens: I just say “I don’t know, some gel-type stuff?”
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| 4:41 |
wonder mike: “Some guys only put Head & Shoulders shampoo in their hair. What you really need to be doing is put it on your shoulders as well, in order to squeeze the full value out of the product.”
|
| 4:41 |
Dan Szymborski: Dang, I hate when someone does the joke better than I do.
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| 4:41 |
Ben Clemens: Not that anyone cares, but I like the corners-only box more than the full box
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| 4:42 |
David K: Am I crazy for worrying about whether Cohen gets approved as Mets owner?
|
| 4:42 |
Ben Clemens: I dislike the feeling of being told what’s a strike (in a way that is sometimes misleading) but having just part of it is a cool way to handle it
|
| 4:42 |
Dan Szymborski: I think so
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| 4:42 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah I think it’s a slam dunk
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| 4:43 |
Dan Szymborski: This dumb fielding percentage discussion is making my brain explode.
|
| 4:43 |
Jeff: how correlated are player uniforms to performance? Is it really zero?
|
| 4:43 |
Dan Szymborski: There’s a high correlation between sucking and wearing the uniform of the team Jeff Bridich makes decisions for!
|
| 4:44 |
Ben Clemens: Davis Dinger is definitely surprising to me
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| 4:45 |
Ben Clemens: I mean, that’s not where you want to throw a pitch
|
| 4:45 |
Oscar the Grouch: There’s a high correlation between player performance and whether they’re wearing a home or away uniform in a given game
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| 4:45 |
Ben Clemens: I bet you it’s not as high as you think. The home edge is pretty small and player-to-player variation is pretty large
|
| 4:46 |
Ben Clemens: But yeah, if you could play all home games you’d surely be better
|
| 4:46 |
Oscar the Grouch: (honestly more trying to echo dan’s wording with “high correlation” as anything else)
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| 4:46 |
5 Run Homer: A few years ago the San Jose Sharks took nearly all the striping off their jerseys and said that they’d be faster with “lighter” jerseys
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| 4:47 |
Jkim: You clearly have not been familiarized with a famous /r/dodgers post about the correlation between the tightness of Kiké Hernandez’s pants and his performance
|
| 4:48 |
Ben Clemens: It’s very Dodgers that there’s a person directly behind home plate wearing a logo sweatshirt
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| 4:48 |
Ben Clemens: And it’s for University of Michigan
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| 4:50 |
La Pantera: Re: short rest this year. Kevin Cash just in his media avail Snell would go in a game 5 if it gets there.
|
| 4:50 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah I don’t think he has any choice with their roster. I just don’t like it.
|
| 4:50 |
Ben Clemens: They basically have 11 relievers and 3 starters
|
| 4:50 |
Dan Szymborski: I keep forgetting that Khris Davis is still around
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| 4:51 |
Ben Clemens: If you guys haven’t seen it, I highly suggest the Baseball Savant gamefeed
|
| 4:51 |
wonder mike: Looking ahead a little… do you guys expect any lingering effects from the 3 very strenuous innings that Liam Hendriks threw last week?
|
| 4:51 |
Ben Clemens: So many fun tools to play with
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| 4:51 |
Dan Szymborski: I would have thought the big effect would’v ebeen that last game!
|
| 4:51 |
Ben Clemens: He looked like he had absolutely no idea where the ball was going, to be fair
|
| 4:51 |
Jkim: Also: there’s now a published paper from Yonsei University in Korea (one of the most prestigious universities), from its American Studies department studying the homoerotic language of /r/nyyankees: Titled
“In the Log Cabin with My Favorite Player: Appreciating Traditional American Masculinity Through Homoerotic Language in Baseball Fandom”
https://amstin.snu.ac.kr/sites/amstin.snu.ac.kr/files/board/thesis/%EB…
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| 4:52 |
Dan Szymborski: There are a LOT of weird papers out there
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| 4:52 |
Dan Szymborski: I learned the term “hobosexuality” recently from one
|
| 4:53 |
Baseball Eating: I miss good Khris Davis
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| 4:53 |
Dan Szymborski: Me too. He’s not a good player now.
|
| 4:54 |
Ben Clemens: I moonlighted writing some player caps for Rotographs and I did his
|
| 4:54 |
Ben Clemens: It was not fun to try to say something objective about him
|
| 4:55 |
Ben Clemens: Because I want him to be fun
|
| 4:56 |
Ben Clemens: “Bassitt was the best starting pitcher for the A’s all season” challenge my friend
|
| 4:56 |
Ben Clemens: He was their best starter in September
|
| 4:56 |
Oscar the Grouch: This Kiké Hernández study is truly wonderful
|
| 4:56 |
Kwah: Home run was 418 feet, 104 mph off the bat. That adds up to 522. Divide 522 by 2 (Khris Davis’s jersey #) and you get 261. Subtract in the inning # (2nd inning) and you get 259. Multiply Khris Davis’s place in the batting order (6) by the # of RBI on that blast and you get 12. 259 – 12 = 247. It all comes back to Khris Davis 247.
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| 4:56 |
Jkim:
For instance, when the user “jonginator” posted the team pitcher Luis Severino’s stats, he titled his baseball stats post, “Get Your Lube and Whip Out Your Dicks Kids, Here is a New Fangraphs Article about Severino.”
This has to be one of the funniest sentences I’ve ever read in an academic paper
|
| 4:56 |
Ben Clemens: Haha I don’t think I’m going to put this one in the chat but whatttttttt
|
| 4:56 |
Dan Szymborski: Oops, I did 😀
|
| 4:57 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s FanGraphs relevant!
|
| 4:57 |
Guest: If it goes Game 5 and Snell is pitching, is there any chance Cole doesn’t? You could say maybe they try and not start him, but if its a close game late I’d think that Cole is going to be getting hot.
|
| 4:58 |
Ben Clemens: I would not want to use him
|
| 4:58 |
Ben Clemens: But I wonder if they would
|
| 4:58 |
Ben Clemens: They might just do it
|
| 5:00 |
Chet Manley: That shot of Altuve eating a cookie reminds me of the time I swear I saw Brian Roberts pull half a cheeseburger out of his back pocket and take a bite in the field
|
| 5:01 |
Ben Clemens: I can flatly guarantee that players sometimes eat on the field. Maybe not cheeseburgers lol
|
| 5:01 |
La Pantera: I honestly just can’t believe they didn’t build in a single off day for 7 game series.
|
| 5:01 |
Also Ben: Not playoff relevant, but as a Cubs fan who is also not thrilled about the future of the team, is there any meaningful change they could make with all their stars coming off of bad years? Seems like there might not be much of a market for someone like Schwarber or, to a lesser extent (maybe), Bryant, and it doesn’t seem like ownership is willing to spend their way out of the current situation
|
| 5:01 |
Dan Szymborski: I think they’re kinda stuck on their course for now. They can’t change it drastically without making gigantic changes
|
| 5:02 |
Dan Szymborski: Like a tractor trailer going down a hill
|
| 5:02 |
David K: A’s win the World Series does Beane finally get his due from old timers or do they just say it doesn’t count because it was a 60 game schedule? I’d guess the latter.
|
| 5:02 |
Dan Szymborski: He’ll never get due for old timers because they’re grading on Calvinball rules.
|
| 5:02 |
Ben Clemens: I think they could try harder to integrate young pitching
|
| 5:02 |
Ben Clemens: But that’s about it
|
| 5:03 |
Ben Clemens: Dusty Unfiltered is starting off well
|
| 5:03 |
Ben Clemens: That felt pretty genuine to me
|
| 5:03 |
Wire Fan: If dusty were to take mccullers out, would he take the headset with him?
|
| 5:03 |
Ben Clemens: I sure hope so
|
| 5:04 |
TJF177: Has anyone ever looked at hair length on pitcher effectiveness? I feel like I was more fearful of McCullers before he was rocking a 1991 Roger McDowell
|
| 5:05 |
Ben Clemens: deGrom went from elite to super-elite
|
| 5:05 |
Dan Szymborski: Dusty’s toothpick is the microphone
|
| 5:05 |
David K: Why the bleep is Murphy hitting ninth?
|
| 5:05 |
Ben Clemens: Excellent question
|
| 5:06 |
Ben Clemens: They do have a deep lineup
|
| 5:06 |
Sam: Is Murphy eligible for ROY? I feel like that is a pretty justifiable vote if so
|
| 5:06 |
Ben Clemens: He is and I expect him to get plenty of support.
|
| 5:06 |
Dan Szymborski: He’d probably be 3rd if I had a ballot this year
|
| 5:06 |
Dan Szymborski: (I’ll typically vote in NL anyway not AL)
|
| 5:07 |
Guest: How long a leash do you give McCullers with no off days?
|
| 5:07 |
Ben Clemens: I might just pull him here
|
| 5:07 |
Ben Clemens: There are two ways to think about it
|
| 5:07 |
Ben Clemens: One, let him wear it
|
| 5:07 |
Ben Clemens: Save the bullpen
|
| 5:07 |
Ben Clemens: Two, if you take him out now it’s more reasonable to use him as your Game 5 starter
|
| 5:09 |
Ben Clemens: This zone has been consistently generous
|
| 5:09 |
TJF177: The Big Unit was probably at his peak when his locks were at their most out of control. But I’m willing to accept correlation there instead of causation. I feel like once he stuff took a few ticks back he got more conservative with his mane.
|
| 5:10 |
Wire Fan: Given it is 5 straight games, do the Astros just let McCullers wear it if he keeps giving up runs?
|
| 5:10 |
Dan Szymborski: I think they have to
|
| 5:10 |
Dan Szymborski: If it gets out o fcontrol, they can’t afford to burn out their bullpen
|
| 5:11 |
wonder mike: Looking at the Savant live feed, I see the xBA column. It’s become one of my favorite stats to peruse. What future improvements do you guys think they could make to make it more accurate? Could they feasibly incorporate something like fielder positioning more?
|
| 5:11 |
Ben Clemens: I think they could just incorporate spray angle
|
| 5:11 |
Ben Clemens: Which is similar to fielder positioning, sure
|
| 5:11 |
Ben Clemens: But xBA is kinda weird on grounders
|
| 5:12 |
Ben Clemens: It does a great job of sanity-checking balls in the air for me
|
| 5:12 |
Ben Clemens: Like oh was he actually unlucky for that to be caught?
|
| 5:12 |
Ben Clemens: But it feels weird to hit one right to the shortstop and be like
|
| 5:12 |
Ben Clemens: That’s a hit 7 times out of 10!
|
| 5:12 |
Dude: What would you rather do: Listen to Correa defend the Astros or listen to ARod give a lecture on why bunting is the best way to score runs?
|
| 5:13 |
Ben Clemens: A Rod because dunking on A Rod is fun
|
| 5:13 |
Ben Clemens: Some of A Rod’s badness is offset by the communal experience of listening to him and then complaining about it
|
| 5:14 |
Ben Clemens: With the Astros I am just annoyed
|
| 5:15 |
Ben Clemens: Lol Robbie Grossman with actually zero hops
|
| 5:15 |
Ben Clemens: Did he catch his foot on something?
|
| 5:16 |
Dan Szymborski: Sorry, realized I forgot to upload with starting pitcersh
|
| 5:17 |
lzfreak: I wish we had WAR for the postseason. Would be really good to contextualize some guys’ career stats
|
| 5:17 |
Dan Szymborski: EVERYTHING A HOME RUN
|
| 5:17 |
Dude: Lol I don’t think you could have slid paper underneath Grossman’s cleats on that jump
|
| 5:18 |
Ben Clemens: I thought that Bregman ball had a decent chance of being robbed
|
| 5:18 |
Ben Clemens: Didn’t hold up his end of the bargain
|
| 5:19 |
Ben Clemens: The little snack tray they showed in the Astros dugout was hilarious
|
| 5:20 |
Ben Clemens: It was like one Nature Valley bar, one banana, a Clif Bar….
|
| 5:20 |
Ben Clemens: Pro athletes, they’re just like us!
|
| 5:21 |
Steve Nebraska: I think the Astros found a new system…
|
| 5:21 |
Jkim: Dodger Stadium day games = HOME RUN PARTY
|
| 5:23 |
Ben Clemens: Does anyone here know why a company like Hiscox (business insurance) advertises on tv at sporting events?
|
| 5:23 |
Ben Clemens: I’ve always wondered
|
| 5:25 |
Ben Clemens: lol this game
|
| 5:25 |
Daniel: Does anyone know if they are using the 2023 balls for this game?
|
| 5:25 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: I miss fans going nuts for playoff home run balls. Someone should toss the cutouts at the balls.
|
| 5:26 |
Section329: Homer hankies
|
| 5:26 |
Ben Clemens: I know this is a thing that annoucners have to say, but “He’s extra motivated because he was bad this year”
|
| 5:26 |
Dan Szymborski: WHAT ARE SINGLES?
|
| 5:26 |
Ben Clemens: Wasn’t he extra motivated during the year and still bad?
|
| 5:27 |
Baseball Eating: I feel like a 40 degree launch angle homerun is rare
|
| 5:27 |
Sam: Olson’s swing is so fun, also that was 40 degrees off the bat
|
| 5:27 |
Ben Clemens: It is indeed reasonably rare, but not as impossible as you might think
|
| 5:27 |
Ben Clemens: If you see a homer below 15 or above 45, that’s true white whale territory
|
| 5:28 |
Ben Clemens: 66 at 40 degrees or above this year
|
| 5:28 |
Ben Clemens: 7 at 45 or above
|
| 5:29 |
Wire Fan: Is the under 15degree HR list just a list of Stanton HRs?
|
| 5:29 |
Ben Clemens: Actually this year it’s literally 0
|
| 5:29 |
Ben Clemens: (Austin Hays had an inside-the-parker but no)
|
| 5:30 |
Ben Clemens: Here’s Heyward doing it
|
| 5:30 |
Dude: Not playoff relevant but fun to speculate: with Bauer tweeting about his trip to Boston. Does a 2021 rotation of Bauer/Sale/Eovaldi/Huock/fifth guy make a possible fringe contender again? Have to think it’d also be largely dependent on bounce-backs from JDM and Benintendi too. Too many if’s?
|
| 5:31 |
Ben Clemens: I think they could be, but they’d need to go pick up more pitching depth
|
| 5:32 |
Ben Clemens: I wouldn’t rule out their switching tacks this offseason, but I also kind of think they might hope for expanded playoffs to bail them out and let them have a shot at the playoffs without bothering to spend
|
| 5:33 |
Section329: Is Alex Cintron back with the Astros?
|
| 5:33 |
Ben Clemens: Good question, and I don’t know
|
| 5:33 |
Ben Clemens: I’d guess not just because I think we’d hear
|
| 5:34 |
Guest: Random thought, but the announcers are talking about how a lot of McCullers’ stuff is hanging right now. Similarly to how EV and launch angle in xBA shows over/under performance for hitters, would it be possible to create a model that says “oh this pitch with this amount of vertical/horizontal movement at 90 mph in the upper right corner of the zone usually results in a swing and miss 13% of the time, or an xBA of ~.200?” Something that might accurately show how a pitcher might “have his best stuff” on a particular day?
|
| 5:34 |
Ben Clemens: I’ve tried various ways of looking at this, and I’ve never really gotten to anything I’m comfortable with
|
| 5:34 |
Fangraph’s Lurker: WHERE’S MARLIN’S MAN!
|
| 5:35 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m still disappointed they don’t have celebrity cutouts
|
| 5:35 |
Ben Clemens: That said I’m not great at this kind of modeling, because it requires a lot of slicing and dicing of samples
|
| 5:35 |
Dan Szymborski: The results are really messy
|
| 5:35 |
Dan Szymborski: QOP is essentially slapped together awkwardly
|
| 5:36 |
Ben Clemens: Well this wouldn’t have to be that…. I’ve done things that are more hunting for pitchers whose movement is off one day
|
| 5:36 |
Ben Clemens: I think one of the problems with that is that pitchers don’t just throw the same curveball over and over
|
| 5:36 |
Ben Clemens: There’s actually a decent spread in movement from pitch to pitch
|
| 5:37 |
Ben Clemens: Tango did a good thing on this last year I believe
|
| 5:37 |
Ben Clemens: slicing up each pitcher’s fastballs into percentile ranks
|
| 5:37 |
Ben Clemens: And seeing if, say, the 20% they throw hardest outperform
|
| 5:37 |
Ben Clemens: You could maybe try that kind of thing on different variables than velo?
|
| 5:40 |
Ben Clemens: “Springer with a perfect day, two singles”
|
| 5:40 |
Ben Clemens: For some definitions of perfect lol
|
| 5:43 |
Guest: Where would you take Sean Murphy in a draft of catchers for the next 5 years?
|
| 5:43 |
Ben Clemens: I think this depends on whether it’s fantasy or real life somewhat
|
| 5:44 |
Ben Clemens: In that case I think Dan’s the man for this one, but I’d probably have him at the tail end of the top 10
|
| 5:44 |
Ben Clemens: Eh, maybe the middle of the top 10
|
| 5:45 |
Ben Clemens: I have a hard time power ranking things like this for whatever reason
|
| 5:46 |
Jake D: Watching the Kershaw Hankook tire commercial, is it a good look for Kershaw that someone hit his pitch so far it takes multiple car rides just to get to where it lands?
|
| 5:46 |
Ben Clemens: I can’t tell if you’re just egging me on, but it’s an absurd commercial
|
| 5:46 |
Ben Clemens: It’s such a bad look for him!
|
| 5:46 |
Ben Clemens: The second one isn’t any better
|
| 5:47 |
Ben Clemens: Calling for a changeup from a guy who doesn’t throw a changeup
|
| 5:48 |
Ben Clemens: Here comes some ‘knows how to pitch, knows how to get outs’
|
| 5:48 |
Ben Clemens: Guys, Petit would LOVE to throw 99
|
| 5:48 |
Ben Clemens: he would be so much better if he could
|
| 5:48 |
Fangraph’s Lurker: it just feels like a tire commercial should star someone who runs…like altuve, or story, maybe trout
|
| 5:48 |
Ben Clemens: Buxton, Kiermaier, Trout works for me
|
| 5:48 |
Also Ben: What kind of contract would someone like La Stella get in the offseason? Acknowledging that predicting contracts even when there isn’t a pandemic is an imperfect science
|
| 5:49 |
Dan Szymborski: Not a huge one and this winter is going to be weird
|
| 5:49 |
Cito’s Mustache: I’m glad Bassitt is out of the game just so I don’t have to hear the announcers keep saying how good he is 3rd time through the order.
|
| 5:49 |
Defenestrater: And besides, it’s not even an out when Kershaw catches it outside the field of play; it is still a home run.
|
| 5:50 |
Ben Clemens: I’m just trying to imagine how someone pitches this commercial to him
|
| 5:50 |
Ben Clemens: We want you to give up a homer in our commercial
|
| 5:50 |
Ben Clemens: We’re not even going to focus on you pitching
|
| 5:50 |
Ben Clemens: It’ll be clear that the guy hits an absolute bomb, though
|
| 5:52 |
La Pantera: I think they pitched it with money, but yeah I’ve always thought it was stupid to have someone hit a bomb off of him in their commercial.
|
| 5:52 |
Ben Clemens: Haha yeah I’m just imagining him being like
|
| 5:52 |
Ben Clemens: Sorry you’re going to need to pay me a lot for this
|
| 5:53 |
Jack V: How is Judge and not Trout the guy for the Jersey Mike’s ad campaign
|
| 5:53 |
Dan Szymborski: Trout is too vanilla
|
| 5:53 |
Ben Clemens: Trout advertises for Subway because we can’t have nice things
|
| 5:54 |
Ben Clemens: Guerilla Radio as the bumper music into this inning was interesting, btw
|
| 5:54 |
Ben Clemens: I wonder how they got the clearance from Rage Against the Machine
|
| 5:54 |
Ben Clemens: MLB doesn’t feel very against-the-machine-y
|
| 5:57 |
The fighting squirrels: This game is going to be 3.45 or longer right? (not complaining)
|
| 5:57 |
Ben Clemens: Haha yes presumably
|
| 5:58 |
Ben Clemens: It’s not exactly a fast pace
|
| 5:58 |
Ben Clemens: And it’ll get slower as relievers get involved
|
| 5:58 |
Jack V: The fact that the biggest ad campaign Trout can get is like the corn dogs is the biggest indictment of MLB
|
| 5:58 |
Fangraph’s Lurker: doesn’t trout have a deal with subway?
|
| 5:58 |
Dan Szymborski: Trout is a sports hero in a time of antiheros!
|
| 5:59 |
Ben Clemens: McCullers has the hair of an anti-hero
|
| 5:59 |
Ben Clemens: Which is not quite the same
|
| 6:00 |
Jack V: All the Astros are the anti-hero’s we do not need
|
| 6:00 |
Ben Clemens: Picturing Correa dropping his voice an octave and claiming they stole signs to protect the people of Houston is making me giggle a little
|
| 6:01 |
Ben Clemens: I think that mostly just tells me I should grab a beer, though
|
| 6:01 |
Dan Szymborski: my tbs stream is barfing
|
| 6:02 |
Molina Mo problems: Marlins winning world series would have to be most unlikely world series winner of all time, right?
|
| 6:02 |
Ben Clemens: If you mean relative to before the season it has to be
|
| 6:03 |
Dan Szymborski: They’d certainly be up there
|
| 6:03 |
Dan Szymborski: if they do win the WS, I’m sure I’d run the numbers though
|
| 6:03 |
Dan Szymborski: .
|
| 6:03 |
LFC Mike: Did your TBS streaming eat Skyline Chili? With beans?
|
| 6:03 |
Dan Szymborski: GROSS
|
| 6:03 |
Ben Clemens: Francoeur waited until the FIFTH inning to drop that his mom taught Matt Olson in middle school?
|
| 6:05 |
Laura: Marlins winning the World Series would have to be the most 2020 thing, right?
|
| 6:05 |
Acub: If Oakland wins the World Series, how would it change the public perception of the franchise/ MLB/ analytics in pro sports in general? The A’s still seem to be an epitome for an analytical inclined pro sports team in public perception.
|
| 6:05 |
Dan Szymborski: I think 2020 would be the Marlins winning the World Series because they spread a deadly disease that wiped out the opposing team’s starting rotation
|
| 6:05 |
Ben Clemens: I don’t think it will really work that way. I think the Astros have kind of already broken down that barrier
|
| 6:06 |
Ben Clemens: “I know a lot of people are mad, I know a lot of people don’t want to see us here, but what are they gonna say now?”
|
| 6:06 |
Ben Clemens: Well, mainly that you cheated to win your World Series
|
| 6:07 |
Ben Clemens: I’d say that, mostly
|
| 6:07 |
Ben Clemens: That sound bite always bothered me
|
| 6:07 |
Jack V: I think anybody that cares about analytics knows the A’s aren’t the epitome of them
|
| 6:07 |
Dan Szymborski: Don’t forget, the Astros already silence the critics by winning two games against the Twins!
|
| 6:08 |
Dan Szymborski: The odds of winning two consecutive games against the Twins has to be be 1-in-10,000 for a normal team
|
| 6:08 |
Jack V: Maybe I’m short sighted but this year it feels like more than ever it’s all about starting pitching health, and a lot of the teams do not have it, the no off days plays into that obviously
|
| 6:08 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah this year stacks up weirdly where almost none of the top teams have a fifth starter
|
| 6:09 |
Ben Clemens: That’s not normal; last year Urquidy was the Astros’ fifth starter, for example
|
| 6:10 |
rusty: so what happens if a game 1 goes like 17 innings? both teams’ pitching staff would be wrecked and have to play possibly 4 more days in a row
|
| 6:10 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah it would be a mess
|
| 6:11 |
Ben Clemens: I think that’s why some teams are trying to stagger their starters with length
|
| 6:12 |
Chef: How much does TB/NYY taking place in Petco affect the series?
|
| 6:12 |
Ben Clemens: Gotta be close to zero, I think
|
| 6:12 |
Ben Clemens: Petco has gotten a lot more neutral of late
|
| 6:13 |
Ben Clemens: And also, both teams have thump and both teams strike out a lot of batters
|
| 6:14 |
Dan Szymborski: Wait, can hits that aren’t home runs drive in runs? How does that work?
|
| 6:15 |
asterik: I’m not sure Carlos Correa realizes that, for as long as he is referenced or talked about for the rest of his life, it will be mentioned that he was a member of one of the most notorious cheating scandals in baseball history. When he retires, it will be mentioned. When he is eligible for the hall of fame, it will be mentioned. When he dies, it will be mentioned.
|
| 6:15 |
Ben Clemens: I kind of think he does realize, and is just saying all this stuff because he can’t internalize it
|
| 6:15 |
Ben Clemens: Being known as a cheater forever would legitimately suck
|
| 6:15 |
Ben Clemens: Not that they weren’t cheaters!
|
| 6:15 |
Oscar the Grouch: Fifty years from now, do we see a Field Of Dreams-style rehabilitation of the Astros’ image?
|
| 6:16 |
Dan Szymborski: Probably
|
| 6:16 |
Dan Szymborski: I mean there was a movie romanticizing the BLACK SOX
|
| 6:16 |
Ben Clemens: I’m skeptical, just because there’s so much more tape of it
|
| 6:16 |
Ben Clemens: There might be a shoeless-joe style thing
|
| 6:16 |
Ben Clemens: where one player is retroactively deemed clean
|
| 6:16 |
Oscar the Grouch: Shoeless Joe = Altuve?
|
| 6:17 |
Ben Clemens: I don’t think so…. more like someone who came along after ’17 probably
|
| 6:17 |
Ben Clemens: Altuve’s the best bet of the ’17 Astros though
|
| 6:18 |
Dan Szymborski: Say it ain’t so-se!
|
| 6:18 |
Guest: So what’s the reason for not having the World Series be a week later to not impose awful schedules for playoff teams? I thought the playoffs were supposed to be the one time baseball was a sprint instead of a marathon, and it seems like a shame that the best players would need off days in a showcase of the best teams in baseball
|
| 6:18 |
Ben Clemens: They actually said it was COVID?
|
| 6:18 |
Ben Clemens: But uh…. I don’t think it’s COVID
|
| 6:19 |
Ben Clemens: They’ve said it’s about the players finishing the season promptly so that they’re at less risk
|
| 6:19 |
Ben Clemens: But I think they were very worried the country would have a second wave and shut down, denying them postseason TV money
|
| 6:20 |
Dan Szymborski: That exact week!
|
| 6:20 |
Ben Clemens: Well it’s just probabilistic lol
|
| 6:20 |
Ben Clemens: But I think that?
|
| 6:21 |
Ben Clemens: The schedule does look weird, I’m not sure I hate it though
|
| 6:21 |
Ben Clemens: I kind of like the fact that it’s more strategic, but I obviously do not like that they only learned about it in September
|
| 6:22 |
Oscar the Grouch: It always was weird to have pitching tactics change so much in October, but hitting tactics almost not at all
|
| 6:22 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah exactly
|
| 6:22 |
Ben Clemens: I’m not saying what’s right and what’s wrong
|
| 6:22 |
Ben Clemens: But it was a bit odd to see two totally different styles of play
|
| 6:22 |
Ben Clemens: Or styles of roster building at least
|
| 6:24 |
Guest: I’d say the strategy is interesting sure, but if you’re gonna have a 2-3-2 series for the WS with off days in between, you can probably fit the same off days into the CS
|
| 6:24 |
Guest: It’s inconsistent is what I’m getting at I guess
|
| 6:25 |
Ben Clemens: Oh yeah the thing they ended up with was weird!
|
| 6:25 |
Sam: Most of that would just be that the pitching strategy isn’t very sustainable over 162, right?
|
| 6:25 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah using only 4 starters is mainly what I mean
|
| 6:25 |
Guest: Yeah but at the same time, potentially 7 straight games for the CS games? Yuck
|
| 6:25 |
urchman: Yeah, I agree with that. It makes sense for playoff baseball to be closer to regular season baseball, at least from a roster construction and usage perspective. It’s just lame that they didn’t tell teams until September, so they didn’t really have time to adjust to it. If they keep the no-rest-days playoffs next year, they need to tell teams about it during the off season. Otherwise, I guess we can just tell ourselves this is more of the 2020 funkiness.
|
| 6:26 |
Dan Szymborski: The whole season is funky no matter what you do about it
|
| 6:27 |
Dan Szymborski: Tarty swing = Made of tarts
|
| 6:28 |
Ben Clemens: If announcers couldn’t mention the pitcher of record, their analysis would be better
|
| 6:28 |
Grant: I imagine the no off days thing is a 2020 exclusive, under the assumption that neutral sites will not return, and travel will again be necessary.
|
| 6:28 |
Ben Clemens: This seems most likley ot me
|
| 6:28 |
Oscar the Grouch: Is it even possible to create a schedule (or another subtle rule-change-that-isn’t-a-rule-change) that would change hitter usage more than pitcher usage? Or is pitcher usage just way more sensitive to the nuances of how innings and games string together?
|
| 6:29 |
Dan Szymborski: Not sure really
|
| 6:29 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to change hitter usage
|
| 6:29 |
Dan Szymborski: Because hitters are more or less plug and play
|
| 6:29 |
Ben Clemens: (which messes with pitchers too)
|
| 6:29 |
Guest: You guys all have great points- I suppose I always viewed the playoffs as a chance to showcase the best players on each team, whereas the regular season features all 25 players out of pure necessity for health. I’d imagine the Nats don’t win the WS last year while having to use more than 6 pitchers in the current format, for example, and I struggle with the idea that MLB thinks people would want to see *less* Scherzer in the postseason
|
| 6:30 |
Ben Clemens: Right, it just depends what you want. To match the regular season? This is probably better. The best pitchers pitching as much as possible? I thikn that’s why the current style is what it is
|
| 6:33 |
urchman: Nearly 2.5 hours in, and we’re only in the bottom of the 6th.
|
| 6:33 |
Ben Clemens: Playoff baseball at its finest
|
| 6:34 |
Molina Mo Problems: TBS has the game going for 4 hours, cable channels are learning
|
| 6:34 |
Ben Clemens: Good decision by them
|
| 6:35 |
Oscar the Grouch: If you want the best players every day in the postseason, I suppose you could just institute a truly universal DH rule where DHs may replace all 9 positions instead of just one. Divorce the lineup entirely from the defensive team.
|
| 6:35 |
Oscar the Grouch: You’d get to see more Billy Hamilton, for sure
|
| 6:36 |
Ben Clemens: I do sometimes wonder what this style of baseball would look like
|
| 6:36 |
Ben Clemens: Unfortunately, I think it would look like fewer balls in play
|
| 6:38 |
Grant: Sounds like football to me… count me out
|
| 6:38 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah I get the idea…. Billy Hamilton and Andrelton Simmons are fun but their batting isn’t
|
| 6:39 |
Ben Clemens: But I think the problem is that hte best hitters who aren’t already starters
|
| 6:39 |
Ben Clemens: Are probably big strapping boys who hit homers
|
| 6:40 |
Ben Clemens: I truly do not understand how that ball left the yard
|
| 6:41 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Man, this team would have been so much fun if they weren’t a bunch of cheaters.
|
| 6:41 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah it is frustrating, because I’d generally love a batter pointing out like that
|
| 6:41 |
Ben Clemens: But in this case, I know that he’s saying “F all you guys for calling us cheaters”
|
| 6:41 |
Ben Clemens: Buddy, you cheated!
|
| 6:42 |
Cito’s Mustache: The 2022 Home Run Derby at this ballpark should be re-scheduled for early afternoon.
|
| 6:43 |
Section329: 90 degrees in LA
|
| 6:43 |
Ben Clemens: So damn hot in California this year
|
| 6:44 |
Ben Clemens: I could be wrong, but didn’t Fox try this Base Cam stuff before?
|
| 6:45 |
bosoxforlife: I find it rather amazing that baseball people don’t accept the fact that a starting lineup is no longer 9 men but 10.
|
| 6:45 |
bosoxforlife: Baseball has its own version of separate offenses and defenses. It isn’t like a team has to play with 8 men on defense because the DH doesn’t take the field.
|
| 6:45 |
Dan Szymborski: LETS NOT START THAT AGAIN!
|
| 6:45 |
Oscar the Grouch: Speaking of rule changes and Billy Hamilton, what could MLB do to bring back the stolen base?
|
| 6:45 |
Dan Szymborski: 88 foot bases
|
| 6:46 |
Grant: it’s supposed to stay below 80 here in LA this weekend… I already have my scarves and sweaters ready to go
|
| 6:46 |
Ben Clemens: It’s below 80 in SF at the moment but it’s been annoyingly hot for an annoyingly long time
|
| 6:46 |
Dan Szymborski: You want more single/stolen bases and in play stuff? The rules have to incentivize it.
|
| 6:46 |
Ben Clemens: And I get the sense that SoCal has been like that too
|
| 6:46 |
Dan Szymborski: Little ball vs. big ball isn’t really a matter of taste because big ball is objectively better at winning games.
|
| 6:47 |
Ben Clemens: Also a tiny zone and deadened ball maybe?
|
| 6:47 |
Dan Szymborski: Make length between bases shorter. Higher BABIP
|
| 6:47 |
Ben Clemens: Whatever you do, it would need to be radical I thikn
|
| 6:48 |
Jack V: Maybe this is an unpopular opinion but it seems like the players are more safe under the eye of MLB, because it was a mess during initial testing, but got under control relatively quickly. Like there has been a lot of debate about whether the season should’ve been played, but I haven’t seen anyone say maybe in real terms it was more dangerous to not play, which in actuality is just an indictment of the players
|
| 6:48 |
Ben Clemens: It’s a deceptively hard problem, because people think “Oh in the old days stolen bases were king.”
|
| 6:48 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah, but mathematically speaking, they probably shouldn’t have been
|
| 6:48 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s like complaining that modern armies don’t use halberds
|
| 6:50 |
Dan Szymborski: This is going to sound really dickish, but the reason there was such a variety of offense in the good ol’ days is there were simply a lot of teams that didn’t actually have any idea how runs scored in baseball
|
| 6:51 |
Dan Szymborski: Modern offense isn’t a victory of a certain aesthetics, it’s a victory of teams knowing how to win baseball games.
|
| 6:51 |
Ben Clemens: True in football, basketball, and hockey too!
|
| 6:51 |
Dan Szymborski: So if you want to change that, you have to change the incentives
|
| 6:51 |
urchman: Don’t bring a halberd to a rifle fight. Unless you’re just that whimsical.
|
| 6:51 |
Ben Clemens: On the other hand, DO bring a halberd to a halberd fight
|
| 6:51 |
Dan Szymborski: No, bring a rifle!
|
| 6:52 |
Dan Szymborski: I mean a real modern one, not one of those muzzle loaders
|
| 6:52 |
Ben Clemens: I think you’d be disqualified
|
| 6:52 |
Ben Clemens: It’s a halberd fight!
|
| 6:52 |
Dan Szymborski: Who’s going to disqualify me? I HAVE THE RIFLE
|
| 6:52 |
Ben Clemens: I mean, the judges might have rifles too
|
| 6:53 |
Dan Szymborski: I always liked in elementary school how the ultimate trump card to rock-paper-scissors was always gun
|
| 6:53 |
Mike: Dan is spot on; diversity of strategies is usually just indicative that something hasn’t been solved, and baseball outcomes are so randomized that confirmation bias is an incredibly powerful tool.
Baseball has so much variance/randomness in it that I find it helps to compare it to competitive card games more than other sports.
|
| 6:53 |
Oscar the Grouch: Not that it’s actually a good idea, but would moving fences waaaaaay out do the trick? It’d decrease the frequency of home runs, obviously, so baserunning would be more valuable, and it would also force teams to find much speedier outfielders.
|
| 6:53 |
Dan Szymborski: It could also
|
| 6:53 |
Dan Szymborski: But fat chance to get teams to give up seats
|
| 6:53 |
Ben Clemens: These announcers have definitely never seen Enoli Paredes pitch before
|
| 6:54 |
urchman: All’s fair in love and halberd fights.
|
| 6:54 |
Ben Clemens: Tripping is outlawed in both
|
| 6:54 |
Mike: I’m just glad Dan is around so my ‘understanding baseball through the lens of competitive Hearthstone and Magic: The Gathering’ isn’t a demographic of 1.
|
| 6:55 |
Ben Clemens: Eric plays some Magic
|
| 6:55 |
Ben Clemens: I’ve gotten back into it a bit
|
| 6:55 |
Ben Clemens: FanGraphs: It’s nerdy!
|
| 6:55 |
Sam: Am I in the minority of really liking homers? I always have for whatever reason
|
| 6:56 |
Ben Clemens: Nah I think you’re in the majority actually
|
| 6:56 |
Dan Szymborski: 
|
| 6:56 |
Ben Clemens: I dislike how narrow the game has become, but I do like a good homer highlight
|
| 6:57 |
Dan Szymborski: I have a billion of these, sadly.
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| 6:57 |
Dan Szymborski: 
|
| 6:57 |
Oscar the Grouch: Going forward, all debates over unwritten rules should be settled by halberd fight
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| 6:57 |
bosoxforlife: Isn’t the problem, if there is one and I think there is, lack of contact and far too many Three True Outcomes. Velocity is the culprit and moving the mound back would lessen velo’s impact.
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| 6:57 |
Ben Clemens: Good way to get Alex Cintron to shut up
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| 6:58 |
Laffey Tuffy: Cat/furry baby update? (As some young people call cats furry babies)
|
| 6:58 |
Dan Szymborski: Upstairs somewhere, I’ve been tied to the PC for 3 hours!
|
| 6:58 |
Dan Szymborski: No idea what they’re up to. Haven’t heard anything crash, so probably sleeping
|
| 6:59 |
Ben Clemens: As to the move the mound point, I’m not sure it would work as well as we think
|
| 6:59 |
Ben Clemens: It would up walks, but I htink it might decrease contact too
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| 6:59 |
Ben Clemens: By incentivizing breaking balls
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| 7:00 |
urchman: I don’t dislike homers, but I see the argument for making other offensive strategies equally viable in the modern game. As has been said, the diversity of strategies in earlier eras was because they hadn’t figured it out yet. To get extra nerdy, figuring out how to make multiple strategies equally viable is something that game designers always struggle with, and it’d be the same for sports games as for tabletop or computer games.
|
| 7:00 |
Mike: It isnt just the velocity but movement. Guys are getting better at optimizing their spin because of analytics showing them the results, and so you have faster pitches that also move more. This emphasizes patience (because they miss the zone more), and makes stringing together multiple ‘solid’ contact scenarios pretty rare, so going for the dinger is a more reliable path to offensive success.
|
| 7:00 |
Ben Clemens: That’s why I’m worried by ‘move the mound’
|
| 7:00 |
Ben Clemens: Everyone talks about how hard pitchres throw today
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| 7:00 |
Ben Clemens: But batters still clobber fastballs
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| 7:01 |
bosoxforlife: Did the Atlantic League ever get around to trying th62 foot distance last year? I know they intended to and did use automated ball and strike calls.
|
| 7:01 |
Ben Clemens: I don’t remember actually
|
| 7:02 |
Oscar the Grouch: As a slight pushback on diversity of strategies, isn’t pitcher management much MORE diverse than it was in the deadball era, when you’d just trot your best starter available out for the full nine?
|
| 7:02 |
Ben Clemens: Oh, it definitely is
|
| 7:02 |
Ben Clemens: People use more pitchers
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| 7:03 |
Ben Clemens: They just pitch very similarly now
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| 7:05 |
Ben Clemens: That replay of the Murphy throw really emphasized why I think baseball would love more stolen bases
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| 7:05 |
Mike: Its similar, to use my TCG example from earlier, to how quickly players now solve metagames after new releases in competitive card games, and developers have to use card changes or bans or the like to shake formats up in between releases because, unlike 5 or 10 years ago, a competitive format will never last until the next set release without being solved, and can often be figured out in a few weeks leading to stagnation
|
| 7:05 |
Mike: MLB’s dealing with the same stagnation problem but for the ball varying around enough to change the environment a bit in terms of what is and isn’t rewarded.
|
| 7:05 |
Ben Clemens: On the other hand, it’s also a great example of why Base Cam is stuuuuuupid
|
| 7:06 |
Mike: I am personally pretty aesthetically neutral in that i think baseball’s always had eras where different strategies were ideal, offensive environments changed, etc, but due to people having a much better grasp over how to figure out what does and doesn’t work in an environment, you probably need to consciously introduce changes now
|
| 7:06 |
Dan Szymborski: To steal a card game phrase, the offensive meta’s largely solved.
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| 7:06 |
Oscar the Grouch: If you wanted to increase the value of balls in play, you could also lower the number of players on the field. Fewer fielders, higher batting averages. (The best players would also get a higher percentage of the playing time!)
|
| 7:06 |
Dan Szymborski: I think the problem is that a single player removed from field is too much
|
| 7:06 |
Dan Szymborski: If you had 50 fielders, then 48 would be fine
|
| 7:07 |
Mike: I remember back in I think ’18, Effectively Wild had a couple of the BP pitching data experts on to talk about the challenges of Robo-Ump and ended up talking about how all this relates to the rest of this overall as well.
|
| 7:07 |
Mike: The degree to which pitches would move with the extra distance is insane, yeah. It’s also similar to the problems with robo-ump, where you start introducing things that are ‘technically’ strikes but are in practice completely unhittable.
The theoretical rules idea of the strike zone is to define the arae where pitches are reasonably hittable, and that’s the way it’s enforced and why it’s actually rounded and doesn’t have square corners.
|
| 7:07 |
Ben Clemens: “This is where you love the three batter rule” is a rare time where I agree with the announcers who are asked to shill for game changes
|
| 7:07 |
Ben Clemens: I do like the three batter rule!
|
| 7:08 |
Dan Szymborski: I do too. I think it’s one of those changes that *does* deal with the meta.
|
| 7:09 |
Dan Szymborski: To prevent excessive specialization.
|
| 7:09 |
Dan Szymborski: Essentially, it’s a nerf to a utility card that’s being used in every deck.
|
| 7:09 |
Mike: I feel like I’ve barely noticed the 3 batter rule but the Dodgers never did a lot of those kinds of pitchers to begin with, and the one they did have has turned out to be reasonably effective vs righties as well (Kolarek)
|
| 7:09 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s three-man Ironbeak Owl!
|
| 7:09 |
Ben Clemens: Turns out that he’s more than just someone who gets Soto out
|
| 7:09 |
Ben Clemens: Also, no one gets Soto out
|
| 7:10 |
Ben Clemens: I think it’s ideal if you barely notice it
|
| 7:10 |
Ben Clemens: But I do like that it adds strategy
|
| 7:11 |
Mike: I think that’s mostly true. It has some weird elements like the ability to change at the start of an inning regardless, so if you bring in the guy, he gets 1 out, you can take him out to start the next inning, but if you leave him in he has to pitch 2, etc, that are .. unintuitive?
|
| 7:11 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah, they should change that
|
| 7:11 |
Ben Clemens: But by and large I like it
|
| 7:15 |
Oscar the Grouch: Soccer limits the total number of substitutions instead of when they can occur, right?
|
| 7:15 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah, though not at lower levels
|
| 7:15 |
Mike: Its a thing I’ve been wondering about with the Reds this year because we have seen expected stats/barrels rather dramatically under-perform expectations at certain EV/LA ranges due to the decreased flight distance of the ball and the inability of the statcast expected stats to adjust to the current environment fast enough, and I kind of wonder how much that has impacted certain players for better or worse
|
| 7:15 |
Mike: In particular, the way that the EV/LA ‘donut hole’ where softer contact is better than harder contact because the harder contact carries all the way to the OFs and the softer contact falls in has moved around can go a long way to explain various guys over/under performance relative to expectations
|
| 7:15 |
Ben Clemens: I wrote about this last year!
|
| 7:16 |
Mike: the rule as written for relievers makes sense since the goal was to avoid disrupting the action, and replacing a reliever at the start of an inning doesn’t disrupt the action at all, so there’s no reason to forbid it
|
| 7:16 |
Ben Clemens: Oh the way I’d fix it is that after you finish an inning, you can be substituted whenever
|
| 7:16 |
Ben Clemens: Not by forbidding start-of-inning subs
|
| 7:16 |
Ben Clemens: It’s just weird that there are some pitchers who start and inning and must face two, but most must only face one
|
| 7:20 |
Ben Clemens: A’s flying the surrender flag here
|
| 7:21 |
Ben Clemens: Using a reliever they basically have on the roster as a mop-up guy
|
| 7:22 |
tommytoms: You are just jealous of Weems’ hair Ben
|
| 7:22 |
Ben Clemens: I mean, I could absolutely not grow my hair out that long
|
| 7:22 |
Ben Clemens: On the other hand, Weems and I were equally close to the action in the A’s last playoff series
|
| 7:22 |
Ben Clemens: At the stadium but not on the roster
|
| 7:23 |
Mike: that strike 1 was a definite ‘7 balls in a row’ strike
|
| 7:23 |
Ben Clemens: That was an ’11 balls in a row’ strike
|
| 7:23 |
Ben Clemens: He got bailed out
|
| 7:24 |
Guest: 106.7 MPH on Tucker’s single!
|
| 7:24 |
Ben Clemens: “Wasn’t necessarily hard hit”
|
| 7:24 |
Ben Clemens: Necessarily is a good word to throw in there
|
| 7:25 |
Dan Szymborski: back, sorry
|
| 7:25 |
tommytoms: Cardboard cutouts don’t count for being at the stadium.
|
| 7:25 |
Ben Clemens: I was there!
|
| 7:25 |
Ben Clemens: I was covering it
|
| 7:25 |
Dan Szymborski: I see stuff happened when I was in the bathroom
|
| 7:25 |
Ben Clemens: Jordan Weems is in as a sacrifice to the ‘games must go four hours’ gods
|
| 7:26 |
Dan Szymborski: And as quickly as he arrived, Jordan Weems departs to rejoin his Damn Yankees tribute band.
|
| 7:27 |
Jack V: Oh Dan, just hopped back in chat, I’m very into Hearthstone, like 5x legend, are you a fan of Battlegrounds?
|
| 7:27 |
Dan Szymborski: Yes, I enjoy BG
|
| 7:27 |
Guest: How about instead of shortening the baselines, just make the bases larger, literally make home plate a 27″ wide
|
| 7:27 |
Dan Szymborski: You just make it more all or nothing, with more strikeouts
|
| 7:27 |
Ben Clemens: I think they should make the bases six feet wide
|
| 7:27 |
Ben Clemens: rather than shorten the basepaths
|
| 7:27 |
Ben Clemens: so that players can aim away from tags on their slides too
|
| 7:29 |
Deathstar Graterol: Bases should also have little handles on them so sliding runners have something to grab on to
|
| 7:30 |
Dan Szymborski: FINALLY DUSTY’S DIAZ FOR REDDICK PLAN COMES TO PASS, WINNING THE GAME SINGLEHANDEDLY
|
| 7:30 |
LFC Mike: That reference was High Enough Dan. Thank You
|
| 7:30 |
Guest: I do think it would be fun for baseball to release new rules like cardsets are released. Every 2 years there is a new rule to solve.
|
| 7:30 |
Mike: The thing I wonder about sometimes is like..what would it take to make the ball break less? the various air resistance changes that so impacted offense didn’t seem to harm breaking pitches, but we know that in, say, the Colorado environment that is a thing
Is there a way to alter the ball so it just doesn’t break as much? and if so, how much would that add to fly ball distance?
|
| 7:31 |
Dan Szymborski: I dunno, stitch changes?
|
| 7:31 |
Guest: 3 infielder maximum one year, minimum weight requirements per pitching staff
|
| 7:31 |
Ben Clemens: You could make it incredibly smooth so that grip got hard
|
| 7:31 |
Ben Clemens: If you wanted pitchers to really hate you
|
| 7:31 |
Dan Szymborski: “For the Astros to make their 6,000 pound weight, J.B. Wendelken was forced to eat 15 pounds of hot wings”
|
| 7:32 |
hibbitybibbard: any good Aledmys puns?
|
| 7:32 |
Guest: Bartolo never retires
|
| 7:32 |
Ben Clemens: No, he just always makes me think of Arrested Development and “I’m no scar”
|
| 7:32 |
tommytoms: has there ever been a consideration for aggregate scoring in playoff series like they do in soccer? so teams just don’t punt a three run game in the ninth?
|
| 7:32 |
Ben Clemens: I’ve never heard of one, I’m not sure I’d like it though
|
| 7:33 |
bosoxforlife: The cricket ball has two hemispheres joined by a raised seam. The bowlers can make it dance.
|
| 7:33 |
rusty: he was serving as their designated eater this series
|
| 7:34 |
Ben Clemens: Punting a game when down is a time-honored baseball tradition
|
| 7:34 |
Ben Clemens: Without it, how could Mike Matheny forget how it works and put in a completely rusty Michael Wacha in high leverage situations?
|
| 7:34 |
Dan Szymborski: “We’re 40 pounds over maximum roster weight?” “Well, Rule 5 guy isn’t using his legs, get the saw.”
|
| 7:35 |
LFC Mike: how about make the fielders use those old Timely gloves not the jai alai cestas they have today?
|
| 7:35 |
Dan Szymborski: That would be fun too
|
| 7:36 |
Ben Clemens: What if they had to jai alai the ball back in
|
| 7:36 |
Ben Clemens: No bare hands allowed
|
| 7:37 |
Dan Szymborski: You can only field with your non-throwing hand
|
| 7:37 |
bosoxforlife: There can be no question that today’s gloves negatively affect BABIP compared to years ago.
|
| 7:37 |
LFC Mike: Outfielders can only use Field Hockey Sticks?
|
| 7:37 |
urchman: As long as the pitcher can pitch that way too.
|
| 7:37 |
Dan Szymborski: Your outfield must weigh at least 900 pounds.
|
| 7:38 |
Ben Clemens: Pitching that way wouldn’t help as much as you think unfortunately
|
| 7:38 |
Ben Clemens: Since so much of jai alai’s speed comes from the fact that the ball never stops
|
| 7:38 |
Ben Clemens: unless you had to jai alai shot a ball thrown to you by the first baseman
|
| 7:38 |
Ben Clemens: That would be exciiiiiiting
|
| 7:39 |
Ben Clemens: If you don’t know what we’re talking about:
|
| 7:39 |
LFC Mike: So you are talking about every generic company’s city league softball teams outfield?
|
| 7:39 |
Dan Szymborski: We make so many jai alai rule changes that we end up with just jai alai
|
| 7:40 |
Guest: batters get aluminum bats, but now there are two pitchers on mounds that are two feet apart
|
| 7:40 |
Ben Clemens: I’d like to see Mario Kart rules
|
| 7:40 |
Ben Clemens: Visiting team gets 4 outs
|
| 7:40 |
Ben Clemens: Trailing team* rather
|
| 7:40 |
Ben Clemens: Only when up by 2 or more
|
| 7:40 |
Ben Clemens: Disprove A Rod on his even leads for all time
|
| 7:41 |
LFC Mike: That cesta really allows you to whip the ball so much faster than it can be thrown
|
| 7:41 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah getting to not completely kill the speed as it comes in is just a huge edge
|
| 7:41 |
Guest: a fielder is randomly selected each inning, hitting the ball to them scores 2 runs for the defending team
|
| 7:41 |
Ben Clemens: Even compared to tennis or whatever
|
| 7:42 |
P: How does a Houston win today swing the likelihood of a series win for the As?
|
| 7:42 |
Fangraph’s Lurker: Lets go Rays!
|
| 7:43 |
Ben Clemens: The Rays are the unofficial team of baseball nerds
|
| 7:43 |
Ben Clemens: So I Imagine FG is generally in their corner
|
| 7:43 |
Dan Szymborski: OK guys, time to wrap things up for our afternoon chat!
|
| 7:43 |
Ben Clemens: Thanks for hanging out with us today
|
| 7:44 |
Dan Szymborski: Yup, Paul, Eric, and I will be around for the NL opener tomorrow!
|
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
