ALDS Games 4 Chat
3:31 |
: Hey everyone, welcome to our ALDS chat for the day.
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3:31 |
: The A’s and Astros are about to get started, with Oakland’s metaphorical back against the metaphorical wall
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3:32 |
: Liam Hendriks threw roughly 8 trillion pitches yesterday (I didn’t count) but will probably be available today
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3:32 |
: What’s up, y’all?
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3:32 |
: KEEP HOPING AND DREAMING AND YOU…..WILL…..SOOOAAARRRR
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3:32 |
: We’ll also talk about the NL games b/c why not
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3:32 |
: We want strikeouts, base hits, double plaaaays
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3:33 |
: Hard to put too much on one inning, especially so early, but it feels like Miami HAD to score there w/the bases loaded
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3:33 |
: This is gonna be the last 4-game day of the year it looks like.
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3:33 |
: Sorry Miami
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3:33 |
: Yankees pitching choices in game 2 – overplaying your hand? Too much influence from the analytics team?
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3:33 |
: I don’t really think so, I’m curious what Paul thinks.
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3:33 |
: No, Happ just didn’t perform. The hand wringing and pretty lame attitude from Happ himself is a joke, IMO
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3:34 |
: It’s not ‘analytics’ to fool the other team with a lefty/righty swap
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3:34 |
: He’d been arguably their second best SP and TB loves to run platoons so it was a calculated move. He needs to be ready to go whenever his number is called.
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3:34 |
: It’s an old baseball-y baseball man move
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3:34 |
: Braves/Marlins series a great example of why we should not let 16 teams into the playoffs. You get a joke of a series with a team that absolutely should not be in the playoffs.
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3:34 |
: And it’s not like they were sitting Peak Pedro to bring in Happ
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3:34 |
: LOL, no.
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3:35 |
: Does Sixto miss enough bats to be a top of the rotation starter? It seems baffling to me with the stuff he has that he doesn’t miss more bats.
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3:35 |
: Right now he doesn’t.
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3:35 |
: As if great teams never get rolled in the playoffs. Not saying Miami was one, but them getting swept (if they don’t comeback) says literally nothing about the 16 team thing
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3:35 |
: The top-of-the-rotation form of Sixto has harnessed his secondaries a little bit better; they’re already good enough to miss bats with
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3:36 |
: I happen to agree that we shouldn’t have 16 tms once we go back to a full season, but it has absolutely ZERO to do with Miami
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3:36 |
: I think you could argue that if a team who got outscored by 41 runs in the regular season makes the playoffs, your playoffs are too wide
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3:36 |
: But how they perform in a postseason series isn’t the relevant thing here, it’s how trash they were in the regular season
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3:37 |
: Meh, I just didn’t have an issue w/the 16 tms in a 2-month season
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3:37 |
: That I agree with
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3:37 |
: This year is whatever, total write off
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3:37 |
: Houston made it sub-.500 and they’re going to win the World Series
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3:37 |
: They could have put all 30 teams in the playoffs for all I care this year
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3:37 |
: Exactly
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3:37 |
: Is there anything I as a fan can do to not see any more Yankees/Astros ALCS matchups? Or really either of those teams individually? I just hate them so much.
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3:38 |
: Go A’s!
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3:38 |
: You could stand outside Dodgers stadium with a trash can near where the Astros bus arrives, though it’s already too late for that
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3:38 |
: My dog is a big A’s fan, so you could join her
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3:38 |
: We got her a cutout at the Coliseum, it’s chepa!
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3:39 |
: Montas v. compromised Greinke gives them a real shot. Hell, they’ve had a lead every game. They just gotta hold and get it 2-2
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3:39 |
: Or, it was
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3:39 |
: That’s awesome. Jen & I discussed getting one of Char somewhere
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3:39 | : |
3:39 |
: There she is
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3:40 |
: Awww
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3:40 |
Endy Chavez still gets no 1 but it’s still a top 5 moment right? |
3:40 |
: Willie Mays would like a word.
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3:40 |
: I’d want to see a ranking, but Mays is 1
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3:40 |
: Jinx!
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3:40 |
: Endy’s catch is seared into my brain because I was watching it live and I’m a Cards fan
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3:40 |
: But even then, I don’t think you can argue with Mays
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3:41 |
: You’ve got the overrated but still great Jeter flip
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3:41 |
: Massively overrated
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3:41 |
: Good, but insanely overrated
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3:41 |
: Greinke is the only astro’s pitcher that shakes off Maldonado
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3:41 |
: I wonder what catching Greinke would be like
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3:42 |
: This is one of those ‘Will Greinke going to the Astros make him a god because he’s so good at processing information, or do nothing because he already knows the info?’
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3:42 |
: non-playoff question: Is Ke’Bryan Hayes eligible for ROY this year or was there a minimum PA threshold? I can’t seem to find clarity on that anywhere
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3:42 |
: It might be great to catch him b/c he can help you out, but it might be frustrating because he’ll ignore your opinion
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3:43 |
: Pretty sure he is… hell Edinson Volquez got votes when he wasn’t a rookie so who knows?!
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3:43 |
: There’s no minimum threshold
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3:43 |
: So I guess Pinder/Lamb isn’t a straight platoon, I honestly like both but it’s interesting
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3:43 |
: Wonder if they’re going a little hot hand w/Swipe Right
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3:43 |
: The A’s definitely like Pinder more than the average baseball community does I think
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3:44 |
: They treat him like he’s one of their best hitters
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3:44 |
: I love Pinder, lol
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3:44 |
: I have his jersey
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3:44 |
: Oh nice
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3:44 |
: He was markedly better vR and plays strong defense
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3:44 |
: Also underrated reason: Lamb isn’t good
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3:44 |
: Samples were small vR and vL this year, but he was better vR
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3:44 |
: Now you shut your mouth… I have his jersey, too lol
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3:44 |
: I’m here for the Lambaissance
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3:45 |
: Haha yeah I’m really not
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3:45 |
: I never even understood why he was good in the first place
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3:45 |
: Whattya mean?
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3:45 |
: Seemed like a pretty standard power bat, no?
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3:45 |
: He was also a god in MLB The Show 17 so my fandom is fueled by that
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3:45 |
: I guess I always thought he had more swing and miss than his K numbers suggested, and less pop
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3:45 |
: But maybe that’s ex-post thinking
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3:46 |
: This is fair, I’ll be honest, I bought in a little after Lamb’s 16 and 17 haha
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3:46 |
: Hard not to, IMO. He looked like a legit power hitter
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3:46 |
: When will other teams FO’s learn to hang up the phone when the Rays call about their minor league prospects? Arozarena looks like a stud.
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3:46 |
: Injuries have ravaged, I don’t think it was skill regression
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3:47 |
: I stand firm that StL was ready to get rid of Arozarena for the Instagram Live thing
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3:47 |
: As an early member of the Randy fan club, I agree that he’s amazing
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3:47 |
: I just think the Cards had made up their mind that he wasn’t good enough
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3:47 |
: Even before the IG live thing, they were playing hot garbage over him in 2019
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3:47 |
: Even after he obliterated AA and AAA
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3:47 |
: I think they had just decided he was a fourth outfielder ceiling guy
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3:48 |
: But they did get Matthew Liberatore in that deal, so it’s not like they were fleeced Pittsburgh-style
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3:48 |
: I raked with Lamb in The Show at like ridiculous levels in 17 lol
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3:48 |
: And even if you were really bullish on him, were you more bullish on him than on Bader/O’Neill/Carlson?
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3:48 |
: I’m still trying to get the devs to release a 2017 flashback card of him, Sam
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3:48 |
: It was a trade from a glut into a weakness kinda deal for both teams, I don’t hate it even in retrospect
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3:48 |
: O’Neill, yes. I get he’s got raw tools, but they are so incredibly raw that I’m not sure he deserves the hype
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3:49 |
: Yeah, I would not play him over O’Neill, but it’s clear the team is pretty high on O’Neill, they went out and got him and keep giving him tons of chances
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3:49 |
: And Bader can’t really hit. At any rate, I can’t pretend to have known much about Arozarena besides seeing him as a 4/5 OF and the IG live thing
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3:49 |
: The IG live thing was so bad
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3:49 |
: Paul, I know no best of 5 says anything about anything really, but the Marlins are completely non-competitive here. Teams like that ideally would not be in the playoffs. If they played 162 they would probably end up 70-92.
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3:50 |
: Yeah Paul and I are both against 16 team playoffs in a 162 game season
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3:50 |
: They were quite competitive in gms 1 and 2, I’m just not seeing it your way here
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3:51 |
: I think Melvin’s distinction on lamb/pinder is hard throwing soft throwing righthander. (although Pinder was left in v james). I certainly didn’t think jake would go hamb* like he did when he signed
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3:51 |
: This is something I believe in more when it comes to platoon splits
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3:51 |
: One bad inning in game 1 and one swing away multiple times in game 2.
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3:51 |
: That some batters are weak against specific pitch types
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3:52 |
: There’s a reason that pitcher platoon splits stabilize faster than hitters; it’s because they get to throw their weird platoon-y pitches
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3:52 |
: I think pitch type platoons could be a lot better than handedness ones
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3:52 |
: the data says handedness ones are almost never statistically viable
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3:52 |
: Yeah if you call a guy a lefty masher, and I say he’s 6% better against lefties than righties, I’m way more likely to be right going forward
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3:52 |
: Though there are plenty of guys who crush one side that I just don’t buy the notion that we shouldn’t give that dominance any credence
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3:53 |
: That’s not to say that there aren’ true-talent lefty mashers. It simply means that ‘but he mashes lefties’ isn’t a sufficient reason for me to believe it
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3:53 |
: If you have specific reasons a guy hits lefties way better, I’ll at least listen. But ‘look at his results’ is not a specific reason
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3:54 |
: Ya the overall baseball community puts too much stock into platoon splits, that’s for sure
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3:54 |
: would you rather be a 1st base coach or a 3rd base coach?
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3:55 |
: I’d probably send guys too often and lose my job at 3rd, so I’ll go 1B
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3:55 |
: 1b coach is a much safer job, that’s for sure
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3:55 |
: More players get to 1B, too, so get to chat it up more during dead time
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3:56 |
: Matty O beats the shift, that handsome devil
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3:57 |
: Interesting to see how much THE ohio state university is advertising at a game between TX and CA teams in CA
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3:57 |
: F OSU
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3:58 |
: Do you have to pay out of state tuition for on line classes?
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3:58 |
: If so, VPN stock should go through the ROOF
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3:58 |
: But I don’t know
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3:58 |
: One of my favorite things about playoff baseball are the pitching changes and moves teams make when they are on the cusp of being eliminated. Do you guys have any favorite moves that teams wouldn’t normally make but did because they were desperate?
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3:59 |
: I just love the use of SPs out of the pen. I still remember a hyped Scherzer relief app. v. OAK for the Tigers back in ’13. He was so amped, it was awesome. And this was before everyone was doing it
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4:00 |
: I find the team about to be eliminated’s closer pitching while they’re down by a lot in the 9th quite sad
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4:00 |
: That’s a classic
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4:00 | : He even sputtered a bit, but the 2 Ks after loading the bases in the 8th were amazing |
4:01 |
: There’s also the classic ‘cycle through everyone until you get to Ubaldo’
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4:01 |
: LAUREANOOOOOOOOOOO
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4:01 |
: Adios pelota
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4:01 |
: Moonshot
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4:02 |
: This series is just all homers all the time
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4:03 |
: Ke’Bryan Hayes led all MLB rookies in bWAR this year, but didn’t exhaust his rookie eligibility. If he wins Rookie of the Year, can he still win it next year too?
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4:03 |
: Sadly not
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4:03 |
2. Both Rookies of the Year for 2020, as selected by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, will be ineligible to repeat as winners in 2021, even if they otherwise qualify for consideration.
: |
4:04 |
: Why on earth would Grienke signal for a curve and then throw it?
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4:04 |
: I would’ve thrown Laureano a different pitch. My two cents.
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4:05 |
: Anyone who thinks baseball games are too short should love watching Greinke today.
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4:05 |
: I think he’s still hurt, not exactly a controversial opinion
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4:06 |
: But he’s laboring out there
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4:09 |
: With only a two tic difference between FB and SL I was sitting back and waiting to pound anything close and that was middle, middle. We’ve been bashing off speed all series.
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4:09 |
: Greinke’s complete lack of velo differential is delightful
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4:09 |
: I don’t know how he gets away with it
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4:11 |
: Do the A’s lead the league in salad? I feel like a ton of them have in-between-length hair
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4:13 |
: What’s your favourite type of “lucky hit”? A groundball with eyes, a bloop, a duck snort, a checked swing accidental contact or other?
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4:13 |
: I’m partial to the check swing accidental contact
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4:13 |
: In most of hte others, the hitter was trying to get a hit, and then they did
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4:13 |
: The check swing one is just great b/c it’s totally free
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4:14 |
: They didn’t even want to swing!
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4:14 |
: the Wrigley Field wind pop fly hit is another good one
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4:15 |
: Oh yeah, I should add Trop catwalk hits
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4:15 |
: Ones that work b/c of some weird stadium effect are fun
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4:17 |
: Kyle Wright is already in line for the win. Braves have a lot of bullpen arms that could probably use some work. Any reason for Wright to come back out in the 6th, even with how well he has pitched?
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4:18 |
: I’d probably just send Wright back out.
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4:18 |
: Not a lot of downside, and the bullpen work thing is pretty marginal
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4:19 |
: He’s only in the mid-70s
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4:20 |
: Wright being “in line for the win” will likely not factor into the Braves’ decision-making process in the slightest (I would hope, anyway)
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4:20 |
: Haha yeah, I don’t think it does
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4:20 |
: It might still in the regular season, to be honest
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4:20 |
: Not b/c the team thinks that matters, but b/c they think it matters to the player
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4:21 |
: Walker Buehler’s uniform always looks super tight and greinke’s today is hanging off him. Do you think that those choices are aesthetically driven or comfort for pitching driven?
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4:21 |
: I’m pretty sure it’s pitching comfort driven
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4:21 |
: Or at the very least, that no one is making aesthetic decisions that hurt their pitching comfort
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4:21 |
: I’m willing to believe that both are just fine comfort wise
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4:23 |
: If Frankie is back to his 2019 and pre-back injury 2020 form how much does that improve the chance I get to see the first A’s World Series appearance since I was making the calls?
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4:23 |
: Oh, quite a bit. That’s two extra games of plus starting pitching for them should they make the ALCS, plus it improves their chances of winning today
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4:24 |
: This is maybe a Dan question, but I’d ballpark it at an extra 2-3 percent odds of making the WS?
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4:25 |
: We had them at 10% or so before this game
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4:25 |
: Why was Olson even out that far?
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4:25 |
: Yeah, that was Canha’s ball.
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4:25 |
: Pardon me, Instacart order came early
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4:25 |
: Not really sure what he was doing there
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4:26 |
: that was a canha corn
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4:27 |
: Any chance we see Wander Franco on the field this month?
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4:27 |
: Yeah, I assume he’d be out there celebrating with the Rays if they won the World Series
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4:27 |
: LOL ya that’s about it
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4:27 |
: Are we even sure he plays in ’21 w/the MLB club?
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4:28 |
: He’s only gonna be 20 somehow
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4:28 |
: Ben with jokes like that (re: Franco on the field) I hope you have kids so they don’t go to waste
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4:28 |
: My wife likes bad jokes, luckily enough for me
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4:30 |
: I’ve always wondered if baseball uniforms are making players worse, even just slightly… Just seems weird we make athletes wear belts and button-down shirts while asking them to go be athletic!
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4:30 |
: I agree with you on this
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4:31 |
: If we are starting from scratch, whats the ideal uniform for a baseball player if all we care about is performance on the field?
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4:31 |
: well you need pants and socks b/c of sliding
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4:31 |
: maybe like athletic sweapants and a wicking t-shirt?
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4:33 |
: This is why I drafted you Frankie thanks for nothing
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4:34 |
: I think those weird NBA jerseys with sleeves feel about right for a baseball uniform top
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4:34 |
: Bottom: Tights underneath coordinated chaps made from breathable rip-stop nylon
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4:35 |
: Assuming that was Wright’s last inning, Fried is the only Braves starter to give up a run. Just like we all expected.
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4:35 |
: Gotta get Jayson Stark in the chat so he can say “Baseball!”
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4:36 |
: @darenW: Mark Canha had a 75% catch probability on that ball Matt Olson just dropped. Looks like he never really got into gear.
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4:37 |
: Sounds about right. Off the bat that never looked like trouble
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4:39 |
: I get player happiness, but I wouldn’t be surprised if front offices subtly encouraged managers to remove shaky starters who are in line for a win to keep the starter-win totals down for arbitration (plus, you know, increase team W expectancy).
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4:40 |
: I don’t think it’s that nefarious, tbh
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4:40 |
: HOLY SMOKES REDDICK!!! What a catch!!!
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4:40 |
: Ehhhh… I don’t think that happens very often. It’s not a huge arb edge, and managers naturally want their players to be happy
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4:40 |
: Just a laser beam that he hangs onto somehow
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4:40 |
: Great catch
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4:41 |
: Holy catch!
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4:41 |
: Paul is may starting over urias better or worse for padres tonight?
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4:43 |
: A great catch, and yet the ball only had an xBA of .170!
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4:43 |
: Probably a little better. They were markedly better vR on the season and May allowed almost 2x as many HRs. Small sample analysis to be sure, but they need every little edge to get it tied
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4:43 |
: Yeah xBA ignores spray angle
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4:43 |
: What!??! How’s that possible, Also Ben?
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4:43 |
: A lot of the time, that ball isn’t hit to the wall
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4:43 |
: That seems to expose xBA as flawed IMO
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4:43 |
: And if there’s no wall there, a ball of that distance isn’t tough
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4:43 |
: Ah
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4:43 |
: xBA is definitely not my favorite stat for that reason
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4:43 |
: like imagine if that’s into the power alley
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4:43 |
: xStats in generally are so comically overused
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4:43 |
: that’s just an easy play
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4:44 |
: Maybe not even comically, but dangerously so in some cases
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4:44 |
: Yeah, xwOBA was a really cool development and also people use it wrong all the time
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4:44 |
: I have a WAR question about pitchers: If a SP and RP both had 100 innings pitched, and the same ERA and peripherals etc (all except appearances); would they have the same WAR? or is there a penalty for being in relief? Let’s assume the RP leverage index is 1.0…Also, does leverage change for Postseason games?
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4:44 |
: Perhaps xBA should have a site-neutral calculation and then a park-dependent one then?
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4:45 |
: The RP will have less WAR if his LI was 1
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4:45 |
: We use different replacement levels for relievers and starters
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4:45 |
: In terms of FIP
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4:45 |
: How is it that Greinke doesn’t even get excited or show any emotion when his teammate makes a play like that?
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4:46 |
: Also, we don’t use different LI for postseason games. I believe the Baseball Gauge publishes a championship leverage index, but ours is just in-game LI, so a game is a game
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4:46 |
: Some guys just don’t have emotions that show like that. It’s not that he’s never been emotional, but a lot of pitchers try to keep an even keel
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4:46 |
: Would an A’s-Rays ALCS be the all-time Penny Pincher Series?
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4:46 |
: Without a doubt
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4:46 |
: what is the way xwoba should be used?
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4:47 |
: To me, it’s a decent way to bulk up stats early in the year
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4:47 |
: When someone has given up 8 batted balls and you want to know if they were high-value or low-value
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4:47 |
: xwOBA will tell you
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4:47 |
: it’s not particularly predictive, though, and people use it predictively
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4:48 |
: Should I feel weird about the fact that I hate all the AL teams for different reasons, but am especially bothered by the As and Rays because they both have really good teams that could be great if they spent slightly less than nothing on their clubs?
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4:48 |
: No, totally reasonable perspective
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4:49 |
: I have mixed feelings about rooting for low-salary teams. It’s fun to see the front office piece together a team under restrictions, but annoying that the owners are so cheap
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4:51 |
: Yeah, I tend to be able to separate the owner from the FO/players, though
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4:51 |
: So as a big fan of several Rays & A’s, I can root for them while acknowledging that their owners are full of shit for playing poor
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4:51 |
: Out toward the Utz girl
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4:51 |
: Here comes Houston… will OAK blow another lead?!
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4:52 |
: While it is a SSS, Arozarena has been incredible. Then again, Aristedes Aquino looked great end of last year. What is Arozarena’s true talent level? How would you value him in dynasty leagues?
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4:52 |
: Curious where Ben comes out on this. Aquino was brought up in a Twitter thread earlier today and I think it’s a great wet blanket to keep Aroz lovers tempered.
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4:52 |
: I haven’t really thought about him from a fantasy perspective
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4:52 |
: If I had to make an over/under on his wRC+ next year, i’d go 115, 120?
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4:53 |
: Something in that range
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4:53 |
: Gimme a HR/SB count for fantasy
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4:53 |
: hm
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4:53 |
: I’m a little worried the Rays will semi-platoon him
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4:53 |
: Not heavily, just sometimes
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4:54 |
: so let’s say 500 PA, 18HR, 15SB?
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4:54 |
: Actually, higher on the SB
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4:54 |
: 20 SB
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4:55 |
: with decent average to go along with it, but not amazing
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4:56 |
: To Liam: I know you pitched 3 yesterday. We just need you for another 4 today…
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4:56 |
: hoo boy
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4:56 |
: I assume the A’s were hoping they could get away with no Hendriks today
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4:56 |
: So that they could really go wild with him tomorrow
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4:56 |
: But if it’s close late he’s coming in
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4:58 |
: Welp
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4:58 |
: I guess this isn’t 2019 Montas
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4:58 |
: Ughhhhh
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4:59 |
: I would like more Matt Olson info. Is he the kind of player who may age extremely well? Gigantic and well rounded (great glove too) with one very obvious not crazy unique flaw
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4:59 |
: May age extremely well? Sure. Will? I’m not sure I believe much research I’ve seen on which types of players age well
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5:00 |
: The cheating was bad enough, but this whole “nobody believes in us”/revenge narrative nonsense is just too much. Like, who are you getting revenge on? The other people that didn’t obviously and blatantly cheat for an extended period of time?
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5:00 |
: I realllllly hate “nobody believes in us” as a narrative
|
5:00 |
: But particularly for a team with 87 All Stars
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5:01 |
: Look, they deserve all the heat they got, but the chip on their shoulder is definitely doing some work in Houston
|
5:01 |
: Bregman is an excellent heel, I think. He does a great job of acting like the villain
|
5:01 |
: Correa’s nonsense just falls flat
|
5:01 |
: I think Bregman’s feels performative
|
5:01 |
: Maybe I’m wrong about Correa, but he just seems aggrieved
|
5:01 |
: And like, what are you aggrieved about?
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5:02 |
: re: amazing catches — Devon White, Toronto Blue Jays, 1992 WS and the blown triple play call:
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5:02 |
: Honestly I think the overwhelming amount of talent on their roster is doing much more work than a completely fabricated chip on their shoulder
|
5:02 |
: *sigh*, sick take
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5:03 |
: Like I didn’t realize it was the talent… my eyes have rolled out of my head
|
5:03 |
: What I’m so confused by is, are there even any analysts/commentators saying the Astros are bad now?
|
5:04 |
: Some of y’all are so bent on being anti-narrative that you act like NO outside factors can possibly impact these dudes. It’s so nauseating
|
5:04 |
: Haha I think it probably helps them
|
5:04 |
: I think every team tells themselves that nobody believes in them, though
|
5:05 |
: I don’t follow Houston enough to know what every player there thinks of this
|
5:05 |
: If the Astros win it all this year I don’t think I can stomach watching MLB for a few years
|
5:05 |
: Really?!
|
5:05 |
: But it wouldn’t shock me if half the team is rallying around nobody believes in us and the ones who weren’t there in 2017 are like ‘uh guys what?’
|
5:06 |
: No chance I’m giving up my favorite sport just bc an unappealing team wins it
|
5:06 |
: The announcer on that Devon White clip made it sound like he caught an easy flyout
|
5:06 |
: I like a good under-sell once in a while but yeah
|
5:06 |
: That wasn’t the time or place
|
5:07 |
: On a happier note, go braves!
|
5:07 |
: Unless you’re a marlin’s fan, I suppose
|
5:08 |
: The Marlins are actually the team I was least interested in seeing win the World Series this year
|
5:08 |
: That’s an ownership group that just shouldn’t be rewarded, I don’t think
|
5:08 |
: My issue is only that there is no real chip to be on their shoulder. There is no one to get revenge on. Most people believe they could very well win the World Series! There is no external motivation there! Even if they perceive it that way, it apparently didn’t help them in the regular season, so why is it magically making a difference now? The narrative is that some portion of the Astros are whiny and insufferable, not that they are some great underdog Cinderella story or something
|
5:10 |
: The Astros are like WWF wrestlers when I was a kid who were the obvious ‘bad guys’. Makes me wonder if it’s an act.
|
5:10 |
: Some people root for the empire in star wars movies after all
|
5:10 |
: That’s how I read Bregman’s antics, it’s fun to have villains
|
5:10 |
: That said, he was acting like that even pre-cheating scandal
|
5:11 |
: That’s your opinion, but I really don’t agree w/it. They feel they need to shove it in the faces of the haters, even though they developed the haters themselves. I think you GREATLY overrate how many people believed the Astros could win it this year. Again, your overwhelming desire to cry “NARRATIVE!” leaves you blind to the fact that they are playing w/a chip on their shoulder which is your choice, but I’m not sure what drives your desire here
|
5:12 |
: Interestingly we had the Astros as the second-best team in baseball before the year, but I think we were the high outlet on them
|
5:12 |
: And that’s before Verlander was completely ruled out, Yordan, etc.
|
5:12 | : From staff picks, it was Min 17, Hou 3 and I think the general baseball fandom was even less confident in them – |
5:13 |
: Ya I didn’t agree w/that at all, Ben. I had OAK winning the division back in February
|
5:13 |
: Laureanoooo again!
|
5:13 |
: I picked MIN even though I was on HOU to win b/c I wanted MIN to win
|
5:13 |
: You may not think it’s a chip, but the players seem to, so it is. It’s like any other bs bulletin board material you hear about… All that matters is that they think they’re aggrieved and are using that as motivation
|
5:13 |
: Yeah, that’s fair Paul. Our model was higher on them than most were
|
5:13 |
: Laureano trying to win this game with very long home runs
|
5:13 |
: It’s a bold strategy
|
5:13 |
: He’s lobbying Manfred to make em worth more the longer they are!
|
5:14 |
: How is ATL/MIA still going? lol
|
5:14 |
: Correa has it in his mind that world doesnt believe in them, when its really mistaking that just nobody wants them to do well
|
5:14 |
: They took a 20 minute break to have a discussion of whether narratives matter
|
5:14 |
: I could see Correa being fueled by the internal idea that everyone doubts he’s good because of cheating and needs to prove he is good.
|
5:14 |
: LOL, what was the verdict?
|
5:14 |
: Freddie Freeman realized he hadn’t been paying attention for the last 10 minutes
|
5:15 |
: So he called it off
|
5:15 |
: (much like me)
|
5:15 |
: Did you guys see the Freeman waving to AJ Pierzynski thing, btw
|
5:15 |
: I’m just so tired of people crying narrative and pretending that zero outside factors matter to these players. It’s gotten more tired than those who overly relied on narratives in the first place
|
5:17 |
: Sorry for derailing chat and Marlins-Braves apparently :/
|
5:17 |
: lololol
|
5:18 |
: I love Freefgod
|
5:18 |
: i actually like AJ in the booth, too. Think he’s pretty solid
|
5:18 |
: I was pleasantly surprised by Wainwright
|
5:18 |
: Just goes to show you how truly awful A Rod is
|
5:18 |
: Agreed (re both Waino & Arod)
|
5:19 |
: Most random players who are interested in doing a game are good
|
5:19 |
: adam wainwright said half the cardinals are flat earthers apparently. like how does that happen
|
5:19 |
: Wait WHAT?
|
5:19 |
: I missed that
|
5:19 |
: The dumb jock stereotype doesn’t come outta nowhere…..
|
5:19 |
: but ya I didn’t hear that, either
|
5:19 |
: I didn’t like Waino at all: I thought he just spouted cliches
|
5:19 |
: Oh hard disagree
|
5:19 |
: I thought he got into some really interesting discussions about pitching in front of the shift, for one
|
5:20 |
: Ya, I didn’t see it that way at all. Thought he did great for it being his first game. He & AJ played well off one another, too
|
5:20 |
: well, a baseball field is flat so that must mean the Earth is flat
|
5:20 |
Adam Wainwright said half the Cardinals believed the earth is flat.
He said Paul DeJong is a flat earther. |
5:20 |
: Wait, that’s kind of a great point, I’m in! lol
|
5:20 |
: Ugh, say it ain’t so DeJong
|
5:20 |
: DeJong has a degree in chemistry! He does videos to raise scientific curiosity in kids
|
5:21 |
: A great first name can only do so much for you, DeJong
|
5:21 |
: How can he be a flat earther? That’s so ridiculous
|
5:21 |
https://streamable.com/3lc7l4 Hard for me to tell if he was joking or not
: |
5:21 |
: Nah this is a joke
|
5:21 |
: I’m almost positive
|
5:21 |
: I think he’s just deadpanning it
|
5:22 |
: Yadi, more of a round earther
|
5:22 |
: Like, what?
|
5:22 |
: round Earther?
|
5:22 |
: Hmm, I lean joke, too
|
5:22 |
: Not a good joke, to be clear.
|
5:22 |
: what’s the correlation between flat earthers and who don’t believe in launch angles?
|
5:23 |
: Waino is def a jokester and even a bit edgy in closed company
|
5:23 |
: FLAT EARTHER vs FLAT LAUNCH ANGLE BELIEVER
|
5:23 |
: IF YOU HIT THE BALL TOO HIGH IT WILL FALL OFF THE EARTH
|
5:23 |
: It sounds like a joke tonally
|
5:23 |
: I think he was messing with DeJong but, boy, the best jokes have a kernel of truth.
|
5:23 |
: Blame Kyrie Irving probably
|
5:23 |
: That’s just an absurd thing to make up on the fly as a joke if he didn’t have guys that were flat earthers. Also, unfortunately, there are a lot of dumb people out there.
|
5:23 |
: I kinda think Kyrie was serious and finally came around to how aggressively stupid he was and went the whole “it was a joke” route to save face
|
5:24 |
: Well I read it as, there’s at least one in the flat earth camp on the Cardinals
|
5:24 |
: Wainwright didn’t want to name them
|
5:24 |
: So he just started picking teammates he’s friends with
|
5:24 |
: To mess with them
|
5:24 |
: Sporer really pouring it on thick.. I didn’t really have an interest in getting slammed by a writer I admire.. Just like chatting about baseball. Yikes
|
5:24 |
: I’m not trying to slam anybody. Just having a back-n-forth. Pardon me if I’m being seen as mean. I like to debate/argue, it’s not personal
|
5:25 |
: Re: our Laureano trying to get more runs for length of HR disscussion earlier….
|
5:25 |
: Manfred would probably go for that. 7 inning game with ties broken by who hit the longest home run
|
5:25 |
: We need more EPL style chants for players b/c we definitely need braves fans singing Acuña Matata
|
5:25 |
: Gotta get fans back first but yeah
|
5:25 |
: I wrote an article about making baseball like Mario Kart today and put in a throwaway joke about how Rob Manfred hates long baseball games
|
5:26 |
: And got people commenting that he just hates all baseball
|
5:26 |
: Not a great narrative for the commissioner to have
|
5:26 |
: Speaking of EPL, I like Ted Lasso quite a bit and would recommend it to anyone looking for a light watch they can blitz through pretty quickly
|
5:26 |
: The commish and one of their most prominent national announcers (Smoltz) are widely seen as hating the game… sick
|
5:27 |
: Also: “Luis Avilan” to the tune of “Feliz Navidad”
|
5:27 |
: I mean Smoltz just very clearly hates baseball
|
5:27 |
: He’s DISGUSTED by 75% of the game today
|
5:27 |
: strikeout swings, pitchers who don’t play the right way, bat flips
|
5:27 |
: he’s just so off it
|
5:27 |
: So frustrating bc he was SO good on the desk (similar to Arod) and then was even good initially in the booth, but now listening to his games are a chore
|
5:27 |
: I don’t know why he keeps announcing
|
5:28 |
: Is there a way to contact people through their fangraphs account? I want to figure out a way to gift a couple of memberships to account holders that don’t have the budget room right now without requiring the public posting of contact info
|
5:28 |
: Maybe just tell them to hit you up on Twitter or something, there is no other way to privately contact someone
|
5:28 |
: the name of one of my fantasy teams this year was just “Manfred Hates Baseball” lol
|
5:28 |
: Gah, Stros get the run back
|
5:29 |
: I’m not the first person to say this, but watch any other sport and the annoucners are just floored by how good the players are
|
5:29 |
: Tony Romo thinks every QB is one adjustment away from being Tony Romo
|
5:29 |
: Imagine if we had a Romo in baseball
|
5:29 |
: Every good basketball announcer just loses their mind talking about how good every player is now
|
5:29 |
: And baseball announcers say modern players suck and don’t know how to play
|
5:29 |
: What the hell?
|
5:30 |
: I haaaate the Cowboys with a passion, but loved Romo. He was mistreated by the fans and was a damn fine QB. LOVE him in the booth
|
5:30 |
: Rick Sutclifffe was particularly bad this year
|
5:30 |
: If they happen, who pitches in Game 5 for the Astros-A’s and Yankees-Rays? My guess is the Yankees-Rays go short rest for Cole and Snell, but have no idea for the Astros/A’s.
|
5:30 |
: I think that’s right for Yankees/Rays. The Rays aren’t really set up to do anything else
|
5:31 |
: They might do semi-bullpen, of course
|
5:31 |
: But with Snell as the capstone
|
5:31 |
: MIA/ATL STILLL going
|
5:31 |
: Brantley was such a good signing for the Astros. I hate it
|
5:31 |
: Just a fantastic hitter
|
5:31 |
: I think that the A’s would go Bassitt?
|
5:32 |
: Always hold Brantley in esteem for his ’14 breakout as I was an early believer so I had him on several teams quite cheaply
|
5:32 |
: Maybe I’m in the minority, but I’ve had enough of the homeruns this post season. It’s too much!
|
5:32 | : I can’t listen to Francoeur without thinking of this: |
5:32 |
: Whattttttttt
|
5:33 |
: The three true outcomes in general has grown tired. There just isn’t enough non-HR contact/hits
|
5:33 |
: I think walks are the worst, honestly
|
5:33 |
: OMG I remember that Francouer story
|
5:33 |
https://streamable.com/259mo
: That was the biggest meatball I’ve seen to Brantley |
5:34 |
: LOL
|
5:34 |
: Haha I did not expect to see that
|
5:35 |
: This is starting to get away from Oakland a little
|
5:37 |
: Remember when Mike Minor was one of the best pitchers in baseball, way back in…2019?
|
5:37 |
: Or: why ERA and even FIP can deceive you
|
5:38 |
: Or he was just good for that year?
|
5:38 |
: I don’t see how ’20 would invalidate ’19
|
5:38 |
: Yeah, either one
|
5:39 |
: I guess my point is that people use them predictively more than they should?
|
5:39 |
: Without a doubt
|
5:39 |
: No one would dispute that Minor was good last year, he saved a lot of runs!
|
5:39 |
: There’s a reason projection systems use multiple seasons
|
5:39 |
: But I don’t think anyone thought he’d be a a beast in 2020
|
5:39 |
: Yeah
|
5:39 |
: Or, I hope Mike Minor thought he’d be a beast in 2020
|
5:39 |
: Braves win
|
5:39 |
: I thought he’d be solid, but not a beast
|
5:39 |
: But outside of that
|
5:40 |
: I mean he wasn’t clearly worse this year than last year
|
5:40 |
: It seems perhaps his Sept. ’19 HR issue carried over to ’20 bc that’s the only thing that really changed
|
5:40 |
: Yeah
|
5:40 |
: What’s the Dodgers pitching plan tonight? May for a few then to Urias?
|
5:40 |
: I’d think so, yeah
|
5:40 |
: I think so as well
|
5:40 |
: They might be flexible with May
|
5:41 |
: Like if he’s shoving, let him keep going
|
5:42 |
: Jeez this series just set a record for homers in a 5-game series
|
5:42 |
: … halfway through G4
|
5:43 |
: Lol just how bad were the Rangers this year if they put up those numbers at *that* ballpark?
|
5:43 |
: I’ll have to look through the numbers again, but I thought Globe Life was a pitcher’s park this year
|
5:43 |
: (obviously needs to be heavily regressed)
|
5:43 |
: I think that’s what he meant re: their non-Lynn pitchers getting smacked in a pitcher-friendly park
|
5:45 |
: Oh
|
5:45 |
: Haha then yes
|
5:45 |
: Terrible
|
5:46 |
: Wow
|
5:46 |
: Love the curveball right down the pipe as a strategy
|
5:46 |
Because I’ve had so many moments where I got up from my seat thinking it’s a homer off the bat only for it to be a warning track fly ball I feel so bad for Will Smith right now lol he’s had a few of those |
5:46 |
: Yeah this makes a lot more sense
|
5:47 |
: I’m a little hung up because we still do park factors wrong for Texas specifically
|
5:47 |
: So my mind went there right away
|
5:50 |
: What could cause Globe Life to play so pitcher friendly? Not just the fence distance, right?
|
5:50 |
: The roof, and I believe they’re using a humidor as well, so that you get cooler but still humid
|
5:51 |
: The dimensions are also very weird w/ lots of corners w/ particularly long distances as well
|
5:51 |
: Minor went from leading MLB pitchers in war in 2019 (B-Ref) and was top 20 per Fangraphs, to not being able to crack the A’s playoff rotation
|
5:52 |
: B-Ref is definitely not a stable way to judge pitcher talent
|
5:52 |
: The way they handle defense is more or less custom-made to generate extreme numbers
|
5:52 |
: It was a 2-month season
|
5:52 |
: No disrespect to B-Ref, it’s an awesome site, just, that’s not a great measure of pitchers
|
5:52 |
: And I think it shows the extreme flaws in BRef’s pitching WAR if he led
|
5:52 |
: The Aaron Nola year did it for me
|
5:53 |
: Nola out-WAR’ed deGrom in 2018
|
5:53 |
: and uh
|
5:53 |
love that ours is entirely based on FIP, either, tbh, but in no world should Minor have led in pitching WAR
: Yeah I love BRef, but I didn’t realize Minor was their leader and that’s just bad. I don’t |
5:53 |
: B-Ref is ERA based and not FIP right?
|
5:53 |
: B-Ref is a modified runs allowed/ERA thing
|
5:54 |
: The big issue that leads to extreme readings is that they account for defense in a weird way
|
5:54 |
: Still wouldn’t make sense for Minor as he had a good-but-not-ELITE 3.25 ERA
|
5:54 |
: They take a team’s overall defense level
|
5:54 |
: How about we just give the winner of the NLCS the WS title
|
5:54 |
: As measured by DRS I believe
|
5:54 |
: lolwut?
|
5:54 |
: And then adjust pitcher run prevention based ont hat
|
5:54 |
: In the Nola example, the Phillies defense was quite bad overall, but played really well behind Nola specifically
|
5:54 |
: (more or less at random)
|
5:54 |
: So he got credit for playing behind a terrible defense
|
5:55 |
: Er, in front of
|
5:55 |
: But then the defense didn’t hurt him
|
5:55 |
: So he got nearly a run boost of ERA
|
5:55 |
: Yeah I remember that one, that was wild
|
5:56 |
: That’s not really how it’s supposed to work
|
5:56 |
: I’m not sure what happened with Minor but something like that maybe?
|
5:56 |
: I have a mildly hot take on WAR that we don’t use it correctly
|
5:56 |
: I don’t think WAR necessarily measures who did the most to help their team win that year well
|
5:56 |
: Particularly for pitchers
|
5:56 |
: But hitters too
|
5:57 |
: I think WAR is often better (with modifications) for forecasting
|
5:57 |
: Interesting, I’ve tended to see it more useful for looking back at the season as a whole and not so much for forecasting, particularly w/hitters
|
5:58 |
: I guess more what I mean is, the player who did the most to help their team win
|
5:58 |
: Is not always, or even often, the player with the highest WAR
|
5:58 |
: I’d say our pitching WAR is probably better for forecasting since it’s FIP-based, but I think if ppl are gonna use it for awards, it should focus more on what happened, not what should’ve happened
|
5:58 |
: What would that modification be out of curiosity? Or just a way of understanding it?
|
5:59 |
: I think you need to regress defense more heavily than even we do (UZR is already regressed), and care a little bit less about batted ball outcomes
|
5:59 |
: from the hitting side
|
5:59 |
: That’s essentially what projection systems do, in general
|
5:59 |
: I’d agree to that more if it were a forecasting tool
|
6:00 |
: But as an assessment of the season, why wouldn’t you want to focus on what happened?
|
6:00 |
: Right, but then what about a guy who hit a ton of dingers in games they were losing by 10
|
6:00 |
: That’s super helpful for forecasting his future
|
6:00 |
: Because we know that outcomes are distributed somewhat randomly across PAs
|
6:00 |
: Well that goes back to never using WAR or any stat as a catch-all
|
6:00 |
: Yeah exactly
|
6:00 |
: I think people over-use it in MVP debates and stuff
|
6:01 |
: I think it’s a great starting point to pare down the pool of candidates
|
6:01 |
: Rarely if ever do I think someone who is like 3-4 WAR behind a league leader is deserving of the MVP
|
6:01 |
: I agree with that
|
6:02 |
: But 1-2? sure
|
6:02 |
: But when people want to act like there’s precision betweent 6.7 and 5.8, they lose me
|
6:02 |
: The 5.8 guy could be JUST as deserving IMO
|
6:02 |
: This might make me a little ‘old man yells at cloud’ but I kind of bought Bill James’s argument that if a team wins 81 games but has the WAR of a 95-win team
|
6:02 |
: You should discount the WAR on that team for the purposes of award voting
|
6:02 |
: Because clearly players weren’t THAT valuable
|
6:03 |
: if by value you mean winning games
|
6:03 |
: Does that happen with any regularity? (at all?)(
|
6:03 |
: No but it does sometimes
|
6:03 |
: I think his was about Judge vs. Altuve that year
|
6:03 |
: Interesting, that makes sense. WAR is context neutral which would make it more useful as a predictor then?
|
6:03 |
: Yeah
|
6:05 |
: Houston threatening again
|
6:05 |
: 2 on 2 out
|
6:05 |
: Ugh
|
6:06 |
: manfred screaming into the void at the length of the playoff games
|
6:07 |
: Complaints about pace of play aren’t exactly misguided. I won’t really slam Manfred for that. I LOOOVE baseball but still find the pace of plenty of games to be absolutely painful. Pace is a bigger issue than time, but they’re mistakenly used interchangeably
|
6:07 |
: Oakland has been playing incredibly long games all playoffs
|
6:07 |
: Yeah totally agree with Paul on this
|
6:07 |
: Another run for HOU
|
6:07 |
: I think the A’s have pace of play issues, as did the White Sox
|
6:07 |
: Astros I’m less sure
|
6:08 |
: Tucker too lit
|
6:08 |
: Anotha one!
|
6:08 |
: The Astros should have been giving Tucker a ton of PT all year and just kept not
|
6:08 |
: Or, in past years rather
|
6:08 |
: Last year was most egregious
|
6:08 |
The Run Environment in the Centrals for example has been extra stingy this year |
6:09 |
[color: rgba(var(–sk_primary_foreground,29,28,29),1);]dkappelman[/color] [color: rgba(var(–sk_foreground_max_solid,97,96,97),1);]3:08 PM[/color] Yep [color: rgba(var(–sk_foreground_max_solid,97,96,97),1);]3:08[/color] |
6:09 |
: He’s about to drop a hot 30 HR/20 SB season in ’21
|
6:09 |
: yikes
|
6:09 |
: That’s hard to read
|
6:09 |
: Appelman says: yes
|
6:09 |
: looool what the hell was that
|
6:09 |
: tried to paste in Slack
|
6:09 |
: I’m rooting against the Astros, but I will admit to liking Dusty.
|
6:09 |
: Dig him, too
|
6:09 |
: I like Dusty and Brantley and Greinke and Yordan and…
|
6:10 |
: I like Tuck
|
6:10 |
: Yeah him too
|
6:10 |
: Pressly
|
6:10 |
: Love Aledmys
|
6:11 |
: Maybe I’m a sucker, I just have players I like on every team
|
6:12 |
: I’m obviously biased, but with Osuna not in there, I think the Astros bullpen is scrappy and likable (with all the rookies)
|
6:13 |
: I’ve enjoyed watching Castellanos pitch this year
|
6:14 |
: Manfred seemingly doesn’t understand the difference between “pace” and “length.” It’s why he added that stupid extra-inning rule that we might be stuck with next year.
|
6:14 |
: I actually liked the extra inning rule!
|
6:15 |
: I’m glad it’s going away, but I thought knowing it was here just for this year was fun
|
6:17 |
: Never realized that they instituted a new rule this year where the divisional series matchups had to be between teams from the same division…in all seriousness, looking forward to games between teams we haven’t seen play each other yet.
|
6:17 |
: Yeah what a bad beat?
|
6:17 |
: Or maybe good beat I dunno
|
6:17 |
: Not sure if it’s good for TV
|
6:19 |
: I didn’t mind it
|
6:19 |
: Some built in rivalry
|
6:19 |
: Just showing up here. Lifelong, diehard A’s fan born in 1994. Let me say: AAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH
|
6:20 |
: If Semien could dial up a three run yak, that’d be kinda hot
|
6:21 |
: To the earlier discussion, there are zero likable players on the Astros. Dusty is good but the players are all odious
|
6:21 |
: Methinks your A’s fandom has heavy bearing on that notion
|
6:21 |
: The two runs last inning are not feeling great right about now
|
6:22 |
: As a fangraphs reader I am completely objective
|
6:22 |
: As a FanGraphs writer, I’m certainly not, lol
|
6:22 |
: Hell as a Fangraphs writer, I’m not
|
6:22 |
: BACK
|
6:22 |
: TO THE TRACK
|
6:22 |
: CAUGHTTTT
|
6:22 |
: Ahhhhhhh
|
6:23 |
: ………
|
6:23 |
: What the hell happened to that?!?!??!
|
6:23 |
: Game of inches
|
6:23 |
: I thought that thing was way gone though
|
6:23 |
: Must have been wind, Tucker had a terrible route there
|
6:23 |
: Makes me think it got knocked down while in air
|
6:23 |
: “I thought it was a fine route” -Marcell Ozuna
|
6:23 |
: “Should have gotten on the wall though”
|
6:24 |
: Are these Arby’s ads supposed to make us want to eat their sandwiches? They look like absolute shit.
|
6:24 |
: LOOOOOL, Tucker def could’ve made a sick play on that if he had scaled the wall
|
6:26 |
: Still an all time legendary defensive play
|
6:26 |
: How come we didn’t put that on the list??
|
6:29 |
: LOL, ya we really missed the boat on that one
|
6:30 |
: Getting hit on the foot just seems like the worst
|
6:33 |
: Crap evil empire wins
|
6:34 |
: Poop.
|
6:34 |
: America’s Team up 7!
|
6:36 |
: Alright y’all, we’re gonna get going. Thanks so much for hanging with us!
|
6:36 |
: Thanks for hanging out for a really really out of hand game
|
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
Why do you keep ending these chats before the Yankees games?