ALDS Open Thread: Sunday, October 5th
There’s no official chat today, so feel free to chat in the comments section for today’s ALDS games.
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
There’s no official chat today, so feel free to chat in the comments section for today’s ALDS games.
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
The teams with the four worst records five years ago are all in the playoffs right now, that’s crazy
Nats, Orioles, Royals, and Angels?
Poor wording on my part, it’s the Pirates not the Angels
So… how about that 18 inning game, huh? It’s like Carson actually foresaw the future with his ‘start in the 10th inning’ post. Anyway,
#KeepNotGraphs
The Baseball Gods hate DC. That’s the only explanation. :/
Don’t even.
I sympathize, but y’all have been to three World Series since Washington was in one.
They hate Montreal even more… All He let us keep was Yupee
The exclamation point is an integral part of YOUPPI!
I’m surprised FG (and other baseball sites) don’t have gamethreads up every day in the regular season. Seems like a way to get cheap pageviews.
SB Nation has team specific threads for every team, I feel like a daily open general thread would be confusing to follow and too big.
I think a portion of the Fangraphs audience is s a less partisan and more generalist kind of baseball fan that avoids team threads like the plague. I would love to follow a generic “chat about what is going on in baseball today with other smart people thread” personally. And I am shocked beyond belief they don’t do this every day during the playoffs.
I wanted to come back to comment after browsing the thread, and say, have you seen all the stupid, acrimoniuos comments?
And then I saw who made this comment at the top, and started laughing my ass off.
Well many of the other threads I have participated in here were not nearly so bad as this one. This one drove me insane. Not sure why it was so filled with idiots.
The crazy thing is that if the Orioles and Royals both win we would get the:
8th best offense/3th best defense/19th best rotation/5th best bullpen vs. the 21st best offense/THE best defense/9th best rotation/best bullpen..
The Royals would have a advantage in starting pitching while the Orioles would have an advantage in offense.
Hmm, I had the Angels winning it all…who do people think are favorites now? I’d go with the Orioles at this point to take it, if I had to choose one. Quite a turnaround from 2010!
I would never count out the Giants or Cardinals
I would assume that since the Dodgers were a popular pick before the playoffs and they aren’t down 0-2, they are still the favorites.
I would assume that since the Dodgers haven’t yet advanced (and can’t be much better than 50% to win 2 of 3) while the Orioles have, that the Orioles are the favorites
Math and you need to become friends. Being up 3-0 is so much better than 1-1 even if you team isn’t as good.
Was the ump for the nats game actually bad/inconsistent or should i have swung at that?
You should’ve swung and hit it a long way
Love the outcome of Ausmus’s challenge just now – that play is obviously too close to be overturned, and its a stupid time to challenge anyway… a 2 out single in the second inning? dumb, dumb dumb
nevermind just realized that a run was on the line, worth the challenge
Joe Simpson sounds like the guy who plays Conrad Hilton on Mad Men.
How long before Buck pulls Delmon for defensive replacement? At this rate, the Tigers really should be trying to everything to LF.
Right now you’re seeing why the challenge system should be scrapped. If the goal is to get the call right, there’s no reason to limit the amount of calls that can be reviewed.
Some limit on managers is probably needed. My question would be, why can’t the Umps ask for a review at any time?
Letting BLATANT obstruction stand isn’t good under any circumstance and if the goal is to get it right then this was a poster child for something being horribly wrong with the current system.
The postgame indicated that the ruling was that it wasn’t obstruction because he was in the process of trying to field the ball the whole time. Definitely a game changing play.
If you’re going to scrap the limited number of manager requested replays, I would at least hope they properly teach the force rules to managers (and broadcasters). I’m biased as an O’s fan, but it seemed rather poetic that Ausmus couldn’t challenge a call which definitely should’ve been overturned because he had wasted everyone’s time on a pointless challenge already.
And I believe that the umps can initiate their own reviews of their own volition if they believe it justified. I think that Schoop thought he had the ball when he initiated the play and sold the play well enough the umps didn’t think a review was justified. It obviously was, but from the umps angle at real world speed, I wouldn’t be surprised if it appeared clean.
Also obstruction isn’t a challengable call anyway. Umpire’s judgement.
You probably won’t read this, but I fail to see how the first challenge was “pointless” considering freeze frames showed that he was safe. Asmus didn’t waste anyone’s time, the MLB blew the call.
Here’s a proposed tweak for the challenge system:
Managers will be allowed to challenge as many times as they want throughout the game. However, it will cost 1 run per failed challenge after the first one, and the umpires reserve the right to forfeit the game to the other team on the spot in case of frivolous requests (e.g. challenging every single play just to lengthen the game).
Erm, that’d do too much violence to the outcome of the game. What I’d do is allow unlimited challenges, but apply an electric shock to the manager for each one, stepping up the voltage each time.
I’m rooting for the Tigers today now that an Oriole cheated.
Alternatively, the Orioles have just ushered in a new era of full-contact baseball where occupation of any base is subject to UFC-style combat.
Yeah, my immediate thought on that call was that the Tigers should simply start shoving Orioles runners off bases and holding them till someone shows up with the ball for the tag.
I mean, you don’t need to have the ball and you’re allowed to physically stop people from reaching the base.
I don’t really care about these teams and was mildly rooting for the Orioles, but: “Go Tigers!” If they don’t win this game it’s a travesty.
So because he obstructed the runner (most likely unintentionally), you’re now upset? Why? I don’t particular care about your rooting interest, but I’m genuinely curious why THIS would cause you to root for the Tigers?
If you saw the replay, he intentionally blocked the runner from reaching the base with his body and his free arm while reaching for the ball with the other. The umpires missed the call.
New era? If Kent Hrbek didn’t usher in an era in 1991 when he lifted Ron Gant off the bag, nothing will.
We got a badass over here
Alright to root for Miguel Cabrera though?
It’s full contact baseball now.
Who’s worse – Tigers’ bullpen or the umpiring crew?
I vote for the broadcast crew.
Ding ding ding! And the winner is broadcast crew!
Oops
With a 2 run lead, I’m guessing Miller will lock down close to 2 of the next 4 innings.
I’m surprised he’s not in right now. It’s great for the O’s that Norris got the heart of the lineup, but I’d pull him soon.
This crowd is dead quiet.
When will david cameron come on here and admit that he was wrong and nelson cruz is worth more than a Qualifiying offer
Because he’s a 34 year old DH, with a history of getting injured, coming off a career year? Good for the Orioles for getting this much production out of him, but betting on him to do this again is very naive.
He was coming off 5 seasons with a SLG over .500, and the previous year hit 27 homers in 109 games. That’s a 40 homer pace over 162 games. And he is not worth more than a qualifying offer because “he is bad on defense.”??
I can’t stand people on this site who follow this David Cameron religiously like he is some sort of guru who knows everything. Let’s look at David Cameron’s major predictions one by one:
Royals trade for shields for myers is a mistake, and again Royals should sell at the deadline -> how did that turn out?
Oakland has the best team in majors -> how did that turn out?
Nelson cruz is not worth 14 mil, but brian mccann for 75 mil was the best major signing off the offseason – how did that turn out?
SF/KC/Baltimore are the worst playoff teams -> how did that turn out?
LA’s Matt kemp is a 4th OF that is worth minus a billion dollars, and that he should be benched in favor of Ethier or joc pederson . This before Kemp went on a tear and hit 15 HRs in the final part of the season -> how did that turn out?
The real armchair theorist are the people on here who religiously follow their own little “advanced” formulas.
Bad process + good results = Bad process (still)
That goes vice versa
Umm…since Nelson Cruz didn’t get paid 14 million, Dave was actually right.
Dave is a bit rigid with his opinions, that’s because he trusts the process, but he’s definitely intelligently and knows what he’s talking about. His process is sound.
Btw, I think you’ll lose most people on this site when you say anyone was\is on “pace”….for anything
If after Nelson cruz hit 40 HRs this season you still think he shouldn’t have gotten more than a qualifying offer, I have news for you : You are wrong!
You were wrong in evaluating his talent level and abilities. You thought he is not good but he is very good. You need to admit your error like the other guys in the “bold predictions” section of the website.
David Cameron actually wrote a thread “my advice to ned yost” or something like that. As if after giving bad advice to the Royals for years, the day to day manager of the Royals doesn’t know as much as him and need HIS advice!
I’ve had more success in the past arguing process instead of person, because the process is a single target.
That said, I also have serious issues with the way the Rays / Royals trade has been evaluated. I think it is more appropriate to use the average seasonal metric (WAR for example) rather than the sum over multiple years because at the beginning of each season all the stats reset. A player worth 8 WAR over two seasons is more likely to help a team get to the playoffs than is a player that averages 2.5 WAR per year over 4 years. That is the logic that forecasting systems use as well – the counterargument is an economic construct that is misapplied to baseball.
Why to people want “admissions” like this? If you think Dave was wrong, just enjoy the satisfaction of that feeling. Wanting people to apologize for their pre-season baseball opinions is so weird & emotionally stunted.
Because to not admit you are wrong suggests you are unable to do better (provide better analysis). Since analysis is kind of what this site is about.
“Weird and emotionally stunted”?!? huh?? That’s sounds a little angry. It’s not odd for someone to suggest to occasionally find some humility from the people who claim to have all the answers.
That said, it’s part of the Sabre-mindset to believe they have the game figured out and so once that sets in, they results are only “variations” that fall within normal expectations… so there never has to be any show of humility for any results that deviate from projections.
I have never once heard Dave or any Sabermetrically inclined person claim to “have all the answers”. Nice straw-man. Why do you troll this site every day if you hate it so much?
How on earth can you read Dave’s or anyone posts on these subjects and not see humility. Do you know how to read? I mean seriously read anything discussing this topic and Dave or Jonah Keri, or Keith Law or whoever will admit the limits of the methods.
I often find sabr-minded folks smugness irritating, just like I find the smugness of the so-called “old school” set irritating. I think it is good to be able to admit that one is wrong, and to be able to see that there are often grey areas with any decision.
At the same time, to suggest that someone owes their readers an *apology* (months after the fact) for what was, after all, a well-reasoned opinion shared by not only many baseball writers but also most front offices is, indeed, weird in my book. If Nelson Cruz was an obviously hot commodity and awesome by all standards other than Dave Cameron’s, and Cameron’s opinion was intellectually unfounded, then maybe readers could demand accountability of some sort. But just because the Orioles have benefitted from what was essentially a lucky guess / career year of a clearly flawed player is no reason to get the pitchfork in anger over a baseball writer’s opinions. One may have disagreed with Cameron then, and feel vindicated now, but to demand an apology is completely over the top.
This, to me, is also a simple question of taste. I don’t particularly care for some objectively intelligent baseball writers (Keith Law & Carson Cistulli come to mind, for completely different reasons) because I don’t like their writing/attitude/style/opinions/whatever. As a result, I typically skip and/or skim what they read. That is an available option for anyone who finds Dave too smug or wrong or boring or whatever they may think. The commenter above is acting as though he is ENTITLED to an *apology* from Cameron. I sincerely don’t think that this is a sensical response to a baseball contract disagreement.
I don’t think saber-minded people ever claim to “have all the answers.”. If anything, stats people *know* that and want to keep searching for the answers, knowing full well that there is always more to learn, more to examine.
However. . .
@Joshua Northey
Hate to break it to you, but despite LaLoosh’s claim (which IMO, as a generalization is incredibly unfair and I happen to disagree with), he isn’t arguing a strawman. This snark exists and IMO is the biggest threat to mainstream acceptance of analysis among all baseball fans. There are many intelligent saberists who don’t do themselves any favors with their semantics and pretty much talk like their word is 100 percent accurate, and you can take their projections to the bank. They say Player X is “*going* to regress,” “is terrible” (what the heck does that even mean? Do they mean terrible as in 2014 Derek Jeter? 2011 Adam Dunn? A typical AAAA-type journeyman?) and other similar statements. A majority of the angst against the, could be eliminated if they just used wording like “likely to,” “don’t be surprised if,” “this player hasn’t developed as hoped and may not be what the team is hoping for,” etc.
Oh yes, there are writers like Jonah Keri who are smart, solid writers, and an very entertaining read for a variety of fans (even if his weird, middle-aged ” I still seem hip to the young people” Bill Simmons/Chuck Klosterman-esque references to pop culture run juuuust a bit over the top for my taste.). The FanGraphs crew writes great stuff and the snark is kept to a minimum, although FWIW Dave Cameron DID call Billy Butler a bad baseball player during one of the live blogs as a quip and arguably has said some things that could be taken as snarky or trolling.
The problem lies with smart people who have a ton of expertise in any field of entertainment. Two things: Entertainment is incredibly subjective and people take it really damn seriously. Like way too seriously. Take Keith Law for example: He is guilty of snark I am talking about, just go look at any number of his past chats and interviews and you’ll examples of in that “this is going to happen, you’re an idiot for thinking otherwise” tone of voice. Michael Lewis called him out for being an incredibly difficult know-it-all who alienated people left and right during his time writing “Moneyball.”. He also is a food critic (another incredibly subjective form of “entertainment”) and doesn’t hesitate to unload on people for going to chain places for dinner. It’s just that some people would rather have wings, nachos, beer, and watch the game for $30 instead of going downtown, paying for parking, ordering tiny, expensive food and drinks for over double that (and be hungry again in an hour) in a space with only minimalistic microtonal jazz playing in the background. It’s all just entertainment and we’re all different. I work with professional musicians and artists who act the same way about stuff like jazz and high gallery art. It’s that whole “We’re smart and we’re going to complain about this other stuff we don’t like instead of enjoyi/promoting what we like and trying to include new people” problem. Movies, live theater, graphic design, sports of all kinds, this kind of c**p exists everywhere. But for people like Law, who for the record is incredibly intelligent, a great writer, and knows more about baseball than I ever will, it doesn’t matter. They might have a chip on their shoulder, have an insecurity complex, want to take it out on a certain group of people, or just like being a bit of a villain. I honestly have no idea.
I think the tide has turned a bit. There aren’t as many Joe Morgan or Hawk Harrelson types who completely eschew sabermetrics and call those who follow it stupid basement dwelling nerds. There are just baseball fans who are happily ignorant about the whole matter and just like watching baseball for the feats of athleticism, the camaraderie, the fandom, and sheer enjoyment. I talk to my 65-year father (who played high school and college ball at a solid ability level) about sabermetrics and he was one of the classic “Why didn’t he hit the ball the other way for a single instead of striking out trying to hit a 3-run HR?” old-school players. We talked BABIP, FIP, LOB%, K-rate, and a whole bunch of other things and he enjoyed how everything he knew about the game could be put into numbers. It made sense to him. We continue to realize daily that there is more of a connection between old-and-new school than we originally liked to admit.
Granted my only real exposure to him is twitter, but Keith Law does seem to be a bit of a dick.
But he’s definitely not the norm among analytic’s guys.
There is a big difference between being a dick and claiming to “have all the answers”.
When you provide your own running analysis for us to arm-char quarterback, you can demand other people admit wrongdoing.
Think Ausmus is letting Price stay in because he has no confidence in the pen?
At least we don’t have to feel bad for Leyland this year.
How many playoff managers would IBB JD Martinez here?
None this year, apparently.
Detroit and Oakland, the darlings of the mid-season trade period. Also the first 2 of 3 teams bounced from the playoffs.
I love it.
Verlander: “They made that trade [Lester] because of us.”
Is it rediculous to suggest pulling Wilson now?
Too late!
If Scioscia this little confidence in him, why did he even let him start?
There’s not really any better options for the No. 3 starter for the Angels. Starters for the Angels this year.
Richards’s knee collapsed at the end of August. Skaggs had TJ surgery 2 months ago. Every other option would be some combination of longman and bullpen anyway, so he may as well see if Wilson has anything to offer against an iffy lineup.
I figured he might be somewhat effective considering the Royals phobia of walking, but oh well.
Butler scored on a double? Is this real life?
Trout’s arm is average at best. With 2 out and the hang time on that – not all that surprising. I did think it would be closer.
Please, tv, internet, someone show me complete video of Butler going first to home. Please let this game end 3-2. Please let Billy Butler’s speed be the difference.
if you find this please post link
Billy Butler stolen base! Billy Butler= Billy Hamilton
Not really, but hey!
Is it ridiculous to suggest that I’m already >95% sure that I’ll root for the AL in the World Series this year?
“The Blue Jays, for instance, saw the Orioles acquire Andrew Miller to bolster their bullpen, while they themselves stood pat. People will talk about yesterday was a good day for the O’s in the division race, but in reality, a one-game change in the standings based on Toronto’s win and Baltimore’s loss is likely far more impactful than acquiring Andrew Miller. The Orioles, even while making a trade, had a bad day yesterday relative to the Blue Jays, who did nothing, because of what happened on the field.”
I doubt Andrew Miller accounted for a 12 game gap.
yeah, you kinda missed the point…
Umm what about that post do you disagree with?
The part where Andrew Miller was written off as an irrelevant acquisition.
Irrelevant to what? Read the quote. It’s about Miller’s impact on the divisional race, not a playoff series. And it is correct.
The last sentence of the quote (which I did read) seemed to deviate from that idea. In any case, I would assume Duquette had the postseason in mind when he made the trade, and not increasing his chances of winning the division. For those reasons, the quote seems a little out of place to begin with.
There is no part of the quote that “writes off Andrew Miller as an irrelevant acquisition”.
There is a part of the quote that writes off the acquisition of Andrew Miller as irrelevant to the divisional race. And it is correct.
That the quote does not speak to his potential utility in the playoffs is not a part of the quote to be disagreed with, which is what you were asked.
That Andrew Miller could be useful in the postseason doesn’t contradict the quote.
Everyone who had Billy Butler scoring from 1st on a double and stealing 2nd in this game, please stop lying.
Me. Oh, hey.
Billy Butler lookin like Billy Hamilton out there.
Billy Hamilton looks like he’s been hobbled.
“The Blue Jays, for instance, saw the Orioles acquire Andrew Miller to bolster their bullpen, while they themselves stood pat. People will talk about yesterday was a good day for the O’s in the division race, but in reality, a one-game change in the standings based on Toronto’s win and Baltimore’s loss is likely far more impactful than acquiring Andrew Miller. The Orioles, even while making a trade, had a bad day yesterday relative to the Blue Jays, who did nothing, because of what happened on the field.”
LOL. How can someone write that.
Because they have a brain and can do math, while you cannot?
Woosh…
Check it out:
Fangraphs shows Andrew Miller has having been worth 0.9 WAR for the Orioles this year. Meaning the quote above, was, in hindsight, “correct.”
The impartial baseball-reference.com, on the other hand, shows Andrew Miller as having been worth 0.9 WAR for the Orioles this year.
Clearly, the Orioles should have just won that game that day and not traded for Miller. You guys are so smart sometimes I’m in awe.
This is called functional illiteracy. Technically you can identify the words on the page, but you are wholly incapable of understanding them.
The quote above has nothing at all to do with the playoffs. It is an analysis of the trade based only on winning the division.
No one missed “the” point. The quote is talking only about an entirely different point.
The conclusion of the quote goes far beyond the narrow confines of the divisional race.
“The Orioles, even while making a trade, had a bad day yesterday relative to the Blue Jays, who did nothing, because of what happened on the field.”
All too common example of isolating an event, applying correct statistical analysis, then drawing an overreaching unsupported conclusion.
No it doesn’t; no it isn’t. You’re making all that up.
Only when you isolate the final line from the paragraph of which it is the conclusion can you pretend that it is reaching beyond the context it very obviously belongs to. No idea what motivates people like you to do that, but it’s tedious.
About time this “Big Game” crap came to and end, eh?
Nice grab by Cain
You mean the first one or the second one. LOL
This KC team is fun.
THAT CATCH DESERVES ALL CAPS. HOOOOOLY COW.
The Angels need to stop hitting the ball to center. There’s a man with a glove out there.
BABIP fairy is sprinkling tons of dust out there, geez
Doubt that Herrera is going to be used in this game, but the Angels are rapidly approaching the deadly part of the Royals’ bullpen with a rather large deficit to make up.
Jesus, Hosmer and Moustakas are complete jackwads.
Eric Hosmer is Evil Freddie Freeman
The crazy thing is that we don’t know if either are “bad” player. Hoser has flashed two replacement level seasons with an All-Stat season in-between. Moose was suppose to be a quality third=basemen with plus power. He has had two terrible BABIP seasons(could be his fault), but a .220 BABIP this year could point to a potential .260 hitter with 20+ homers with some adjustments/luck.
It is easy to write top prospects off. It is harder to point to a rebound for them. It is east to deny scouts, but perhaps we underrate the AAA to Majors adjustment.
In all the commentary (I mean the stupid tv commentator commentary, really, but also this open thread) about Cain’s two catches his cutting off that double earlier in the game shouldn’t be forgotten … that was more awesome than the second of the catches … would be interesting to see how it effected the win probabilities relative to the other plays
Is Joe Buck an alien?
KC vs. Baltimore. I bet you didn’t predict this at the beginning of the season.
And it’s now even more possible that the Royals win 2 World Series in the time since the Tigers have won their last World Series.
Dave’s head must be exploding.
I would bet almost no one did. What is your point. It would have been an objectively bad prediction unless you had some sort of quantum computer and a hyper advanced understanding of everything. Are you god secretly?
Please tell me this is a shtick, and you don’t actually take everything this seriously. Please
He hasn’t been out his basement in months, so no. I don’t think it’s schtick. But for me..
It was a universal, ambiguous “you.”
the egos are real. so is the bad poasting.
I hate when the poasting is bad. It made me want to go outside and throw the ball around with my son, but the sun was absolutely rosting. So then we came in and brosted a chicken. I’m not bosting but it tasted really good!
because internet discussions are serious business.
oriole fans are the worst poasters. I am oriole fan though. it makes me sad that their poasting causes so much internet cancer.
-WF_NA
It is good we can get it all out on the table