Allow Me to Present an Incredible Baseball Coincidence
To make it clear right off the bat, this has nothing to do with Shohei Ohtani or Giancarlo Stanton. This has nothing to do with the current offseason market, and, frankly, this has nothing to do with baseball from any of the past few decades. This is just built around a historical fun fact, but, you know, we all need breaks. And we all need improbable fun facts.
You can probably think of a few baseball coincidences on your own. One I personally can’t forget is that both Ken Griffey Jr. and Stan Musial were born on November 21 in Donora, Pennsylvania. There’s Roberto Clemente’s career ending at exactly 3,000 hits. I don’t know what you do and don’t remember, but I have a coincidence to add to the list. It takes a little explaining, but I think the destination is worth it. Maybe you won’t agree in the end, but I’ve been thinking about this since I found it by accident during a podcast last week. I feel compelled to speak my truth. I have to share this little statistical story.
It wasn’t long ago that Dave was disagreeing with Bill James‘ critique of WAR. Somewhere, probably on Twitter, Dave made the remark that, if you follow James’ line of thinking to its logical conclusion, you’d end up only caring about numbers posted in wins. Now, you’d never want to do that seriously, because you’d be senselessly eliminating way too much information, but that still stuck in my head. And, conveniently, Baseball Reference provides player splits by game outcome.
This past season, in team wins, batters posted an .871 OPS. Meanwhile, in team losses, batters posted a .624 OPS. These are, overall, very similar player pools, but of course nothing about the splits is surprising. Wins are selective for better performance. Losses are selective for worse performance. Stanton had a 1.338 OPS in wins and a .676 OPS in losses. This is self-explanatory. And to make it easy, Baseball Reference provides a stat called tOPS+, which compares a split against the overall number. A mark of 100 would be average. Hitters in wins just had a tOPS+ of 132. Hitters in losses just had a tOPS+ of 67.
During one episode a week of Effectively Wild, I try to find some interesting little statistical nugget. Last week, I decided to search to see if there were ever any hitters who were better in losses than wins. That wouldn’t make any sense — it wouldn’t be reflective of any innate trait or skill — but, when you have so much data, funny things can emerge. So I searched all-time batting splits using the Baseball Reference Play Index, and I set a career minimum of 500 plate appearances in losses. I sorted the results by tOPS+. Here is the top of the list.
Only two players emerged. Given the plate-appearance minimum, only Andy Allanson and Johnny O’Brien were better hitters in losses than in wins. O’Brien is the leader here, with a tOPS+ in losses of 107, giving him a lead by six points. You can see in that image that I’ve clicked through to O’Brien’s player page. I wanted to know more about him.
O’Brien played in six seasons, in the 50s. For his career, he batted 906 times, and most of that playing time came with the Pirates, for whom he debuted in 1953. Fun fact aside, he had a fairly unremarkable big-league career, but the Baseball Reference page told me that Johnny was the brother of Eddie O’Brien. More, he was the twin brother of Eddie O’Brien, and there haven’t been very many of those. Eddie O’Brien also debuted with the Pirates in 1953. He played for the Pirates through 1958, batting 605 times. Eddie frequently played shortstop, and twin brother Johnny frequently played second.
In 1956, 1957, and 1958, both brothers made pitching appearances. And even before they were major-league teammates, they achieved a certain level of fame as teammates playing college basketball in Seattle. The backstory is a good one, but just to get us moving along, I couldn’t not look. Johnny O’Brien holds a little-known record, having posted a 107 tOPS+ in losses. He was better in losses than he was in wins. What about Eddie?
Eddie O’Brien, for his career, posted a 107 tOPS+ in losses. He was better in losses than he was in wins, by the exact same amount.
Now, it’s all about the minimums. Johnny O’Brien holds the record if you set the minimum to 500 plate appearances. He batted 509 times in losses. Eddie batted 364 times in losses. But here’s what happens if you drop the minimum to 300 trips to the plate. Here’s the whole top of the all-time leaderboard.
There are just 19 hitters who have been as good or better in losses than wins. This is for as long as Baseball Reference has historical records. Two of the hitters are twin-brother teammates, who both finished with an identical tOPS+ for the split. I know that tOPS+ itself is a modern and convoluted statistic, but it doesn’t manipulate any numbers. It just puts one number over another. I don’t know if this is as wild to you as it is to me, but when I found this in the splits, my hands trembled for a couple of minutes. There have been countless studies in the past, attempting to examine whether twins share some kind of telepathic connection. Personally, I think it’s all bunk, but now there’s a Baseball Reference split staring me in the face.
This is my current favorite improbable baseball coincidence. It could end up topped or forgotten tomorrow or the next day, but for now, I’m glad to have the chance to share this with you. Now back to your regularly-scheduled hot-stove rumors.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18977810/barry-bonds-pac-man-greatest-baseball-fun-fact-all
Of *course* there’s a relevant Sam Miller article to link to
It’s a crying shame that Miller’s brilliant article gets lost among the juvenile crowd over at ESPN. That was a superb article, and the comment section brought out annoying trolls.
Personally I feel that people who don’t condemn Barry Bonds in the strongest possible manner for his blatant cheating are annoying trolls, because Barry Bonds didn’t generate those numbers, chemicals did.
Different people see things differently.
I agree and we should condemn every player who has used chemicals to be better at playing baseball.
Babe Ruth took an extract of sheep testicles to get stronger. Ended up in the hospital sick as a dog
I guess you think the amphetamine use in the 60’s & 70’s was ok?
Professional competition nearly always brings those who will win by any means available.
This argument which gets spewed everywhere drives me crazy
A) the players themselves have often said this didn’t really impact the game meaningfully
B) one thing that didn’t get caught does not make the other a good or a desirable thing or something that shouldn’t be called out
This logic arguement always leads to “anything goes”.
Personally I feel that people who don’t condemn any pitcher who had Tommy John surgery in the strongest possible manner for their blatant cheating are annoying trolls, because the pitcher didn’t generate those numbers, the cadaver tendon surgically sewn into their arm did.
Different people see things differently.
It is pretty amazing that anyone could write any story about Barry Bonds and *not* mention the word “steroid” in any context at all.
It doesn’t bother me nearly as much as Johnston (we have plenty of other spaces to condemn Bonds, and this wasn’t the focus of the article by any means). But it does seem like a pretty big oversight when talking about Bonds’ accomplishments to not at least mention the word.
What’s the point, though? Mentioning steroids is exactly the same as mentioning that he’s black or the MLB home run leader. Literally everyone who’s reading already knows.
I heard babe Ruth took horse steroids his entire career and its believable since he was part owner of a race track were horse steroids were legal and being used on every horse.
So by 2004, were teams just walking Bonds as a silent steroids protest ?
That’s basically Simpson’s Paradox. Fun to see a “real world” application of it.
How did anyone downvote this? This is the name of the phenomenon Miller was describing!
This is Peak Sullivan.
I’ve got a fever and the only cure is more Sullivan.
I thought two things as I read this: 1. “I really like Jeff’s writing!” and 2. “Jesus, the hot stove it cold if this is what Jeff has to write about….”
Another coincidence: Frank Thomas and Jeff Bagwell were born on the same day. And, in the words of Joe Posnanski:
“They were both power-hitting, right-handed first basemen of the 1990s who hit right around .300, walked a ton, scored about 1,500 career runs, hit 39-plus homers six times, led the league in doubles once and won a 1994 MVP Award. Jeff Bagwell is Frank Thomas’ No. 1 Baseball Reference comp. Frank Thomas if Jeff Bagwell’s No. 2 Baseball Reference comp.”
You can’t comp a player to another if that other comps back to the original. That’s like using a word you’re trying to describe in the definition.
That’s the point. Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas are actually the same person. Its just a great makeup job and some sort of time machine that allowed him to play 2 games a day in different cities.
No. Hold on. Wait. No. Wait. No. Hold on. Wait. No.
cool
Part of this could come down to psychology. Both brothers felt looser when the pressure wasn’t on, or both felt more driven when playing from behind. That certainly wouldn’t explain all of the coincidence but it might point them in the same direction.
I’m not sure if this a coincidence or the result of a conscious decision –
During the Great 2000 Election Fiasco, where George W. Bush ended up beating Al Gore in Florida (thus winning the election) thanks to some questionable moves by the Florida Secretary of State and a controversial decision by SCOTUS, we were treated to discussions about ‘hanging chads’. Most people had never heard of the word ‘chad’ prior to the elections.
At the time, I thought it might be interesting to look up the birth date of Chad Curtis, formerly a Yankee WS hero, then a Texas Ranger and now a convict.
Turns out Chad Curtis was born on November 6, 1968, the day after the general elections!!
Just odd
Dafuq?
Come up with new statistics/equations and eventually coincidence will wink at you.
1^3 + 5^3 + 3^3 = 153
16^3 + 50^3 + 33^3 = 165033
166^3 + 500^3 + 333^3 = 166500333
1666^3 + 5000^3 + 3333^3 = 166650003333
Nevermind…
Cecil Fielder career HR total: 319
Prince Fielder career HR total: 319
I wonder if they are the only Father/Son combo to both hit 50 HR in a season?
Yes. Assuming there’s nothing about somebody’s paternity that we don’t know about.
Cecil and Prince Fielder:
— Each had 7 straight years with at least 28 HRs, totaling 258. Each had one year of 50+ HRs, another of 40+, and a total of six 30-HR years.
— Cecil is the only Tiger to hit 50+ since 1938. Prince is the only Brewer to hit 50+ in the club’s 49-year history.
— Each broke into MLB at age 21, in his 4th pro season. In the minors, Cecil hit .294 and slugged .523; Prince hit .297 and slugged .524.
— Despite their girth, both were extremely durable for many years, once they became established: Cecil was 4th in games played from 1990-96, missing just 3.2% (34 out of 1,069); Prince was 1st in games played from 2006-13, missing just 1% (13 out of 1,296).
— Best bWAR season: Cecil 6.5, Prince 6.3.
— Best MVP finish: Cecil 2nd twice, Prince 3rd twice.
— Best OPS+ season: Cecil 167, Prince 166.
— Each had a .992 fielding percentage, which is pretty bad for first base. Maybe they should have been full-time DHs, but both hit significantly worse in that role than when playing the field.
— Each was salary-dumped within 2 years of signing a big contract with Detroit.
I first heard of Eddie O’Brien from Jim Bouton’s “Ball Four” – he was the bullpen coach for the Seattle Pilots in 1969 (and was not particularly good at it, according to Bouton).
I wonder what Johnny was doing while Eddie was coaching, and why the Pilots picked Eddie but not Johnny to coach.
“and was not particularly good at it, according to Bouton”
To be fair, very few people were good at anything according to Bouton in Ball Four.
Woah, nice find. Love this stuff. Growing up a cardinal fan, I always heard about musial getting the same amount of hits at home and on the road for his career, 1815 hits each
I love off-the-wall facts about baseball. Thanks.
Here is a painful one:
Richie Ashburn hitting the same fan – during the same PA – twice with foul balls – the second one coming while she was being carried away on a stretcher.
cant…stop…smiling – thank you, Jeff! 🙂
The early 2000s Cubs fan in me really appreciates that you clicked on Jose Nieves.
Sandy Martinez shows up on the list too! It’s a good thing the ’99 Cubs were terrible, seeing as they had not one but TWO guys who hit so well (relatively speaking) in losses.
First perfect game thrown by a New York Yankee: Don Larsen 1956. Second perfect game thrown by a New York Yankee: David Wells 1998. Both Larsen and Wells attended Point Loma High School in San Diego.
Jeff, you are a treasure.
Tommy John? Had to go pull up his batting splits. Here’s his tOPS+ for various stats:
August 176
Sept 120
RISP 135
Men On 106
Men on 2nd and 3rd 330
Bases loaded 148
Man on 3rd, less than 2 outs 233
2 outs, RISP 131
Tie game 110
HIgh leverage 116
9th inning 153
Tommy John, most clutch hitter ever? I mean, yes he hit better in losses, but clearly that was his teammates’ fault since he raised his game with the game (or season) on the line. . . .
I am slightly confused. Just because they (or anyone on the list) had a tOPS above 100 does not mean they were better in losses than wins. Is there a page where we can see their performance in wins?
Johnny:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=o%27brijo03&year=Career&t=b#all_outcb
Eddie:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=o%27bried01&year=Career&t=b#all_outcb
It does, yes. It means that.
Oh man, I have the biggest smile on my face. Thanks, Jeff.
Okay, these guys were clearly backups, because they have very few plate appearances per season. I’m thinking they were often inserted in mop-up duty, playing when the game was already out of hand and the other team didn’t need its best pitchers or max efforts. They might then perform better under these losing circumstances than in wins.
Long story short, I had no idea twin brothers were playing in the middle infield together in the major leagues.
This is why I come to Fangraphs.
(P.S. I was sort of hoping you’d throw in one of the coincidences between Kennedy and Lincoln.)
They were both presidents?
And, I think that list also shows something else. Something reading Bill James taught me a long time ago: just LOOK at that list. An entire list full of NOBODIES (no offense…). Because this is a group of players that have a +tOPS in losing games. Why is this list full of nobodies? Because when GOOD players have a good game… their team usually WINS the game.
So, good players have shockingly high OPS (or WAR or whatever) numbers in winning games, relative to losing games.
Because when your best player has a bad game, you often don’t win. Right?
This is why I don’t understand James’ (new?) stance on this, or “clutch” or WAR… or whatever windmill he’s tilting at now.
Only nobodies have a sample of career at-bats small enough to post such anomalous stats. (Well, Tommy John pulled it off by being a pitcher playing mostly in the AL.)
Precisely. Good players stick around, and collect many ABs. (and end up with stats that are great in wins, and not as good in losses)
Not only did Eddie and Johnny play college basketball together, but they beat the Harlem Globetrotters and were later both drafted by the then Milwaukee Hawks.
They are also IDENTICAL twins.
I’ll allow, I’ll allow!
Btw, why is there not yet a regular FG column called “Allow Me to Present an Incredible Baseball Coincidence”?
Probably because there’s already a button on the right side of the page that says “Jeff Sullivan.”
I love you Jeff.
According to BR, Johnny is still alive and about to turn 87 in a couple days. Eddie died in 2014… So, I wonder if Johnny knows this, aside from a weird telepathic twin thing? A cool birthday present for a long-forgotten player.
No team ever won the WS (best of seven) after losing the first two games, until the Dodgers beat the Yankees in 1955. Then the very next year, the Yankees did it to the Dodgers.
No team ever won a WS in six games after losing the first two games until the Yankees beat the Dodgers in 1978. The next time the two teams met in a WS, in 1981, the Dodgers did the same to the Yankees.
No team ever won a WS after losing the first two games at home until the AL blue-uniformed Royals beat the NL red-uniformed Cardinals in 1985. The following year, the NL blue-uniformed Mets did the same vs. the AL red-uniformed Red Sox.
This is weird. It doesn’t require a telepathic element. Identical twins have the same DNA and as close to the same upbringing as possible. In short, they are programmed as similar as people can be. If there’s a “talent” for performing better in losses, then it makes sense that twins share that trait. The crazy coincidence is that it happens to be twins at all.
since they’re twins, they may have similar skills against similar pitching. Since their careers overlapped on the same team, they saw the same pitchers in their wins and losses and had similar strengths and weaknesses. As a crazy coincidence their skills were different from their teammates.
It’s still amazing that this happened with twins.
Yes, all the factors are there. It’s still probably just random weirdness. The stuff of which life is made.
Both players have the kind of profile you would expect someone at the top of this list to have: (1) really bad hitter, and (2) small amount of PA’s, not much above Jeff’s selected threshold.
As a parent of identical twin boys, I find this amazing although I am not shocked. Thanks for doing the research
Here’s my weird one. Sitting in a private box at New comiskey right behind home plate. My memory may not be perfect but it’s extremely unlikely for a foul ball to get into those boxes.
I’m sitting in the outside seats next to a friend. I get up and go get a beer at the buffet way in the back of the suite. Foul ball comes comes screaming up and hits the back of my empty seat and bounces out of the suite
My friend looks back at me and laughs that I missed my chance. I walk back down to my seat. Next pitch another foul ball screams over my head and slams into beer cart in the back of suite.
My friend couldn’t stop laughing for three innings.
I’ve still never caught a foul ball at a game and am quite certain I never will
Just looked at Eddie Obriens numbers. It wasn’t that he was especially good, he just hit as bad in wins as most players did in losses. No time to look at the others.
I’d be more interested on who hit well in losses , say a 750+ OPS . Maybe nobody
Huh
Ha, I enjoyed it, thanks!
Twins are really interesting, seeing so many who end up with the same profession, even when separated at birth.
The most modern name I could recognize on the list, though I admit readily I don’t know most teams players anymore, is Emmanuel Burriss, former Giants and Nats MI, who was actually born and raised in DC, so probably the rare player to be born there and play there. Then, of course, Tommy John.
Also one of my favorite coincidences from Baseball Reference:
Ranked #10 on the list of Bill Swift’s similarity scores is….Bill Swift:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swiftbi02.shtml