Amid Their August Surge, the Rangers Have Lost Josh Jung

No team has come out of the August 1 trade deadline hotter than the Texas Rangers. Not only did they make substantial additions to their roster — most notably by adding Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery to their rotation — but they’ve reeled off a season-high eight-game winning streak to start this month, enabling them to expand their AL West lead over the Astros to three games. Alas, they suffered a substantial blow along the way, as rookie third baseman Josh Jung fractured his left thumb in Sunday’s game. He’ll undergo surgery to stabilize the injury, which could sideline him for the next six weeks, but fortunately the Rangers have the depth to withstand his absence.

The 25-year-old Jung injured himself while knocking down a 109-mph line drive off the bat of the Marlins’ Jorge Soler in the sixth inning of Sunday’s game. The ball hit the base of the thumb of his glove hand and squirted out, but he had the presence of mind to recover it and step on third base for a force out, then throw to second to complete a double play.

One batter later, Jung left the game, to the surprise of manager Bruce Bochy. “I went out to the mound, I had no idea he got hurt on that play,” said Bochy. “The calmness that he showed picking up the ball, stepping on third … he didn’t grimace, he didn’t do anything to make us think that he was hurt.”

Jung flew to Arizona to be evaluated by hand specialist Dr. Donald Sheridan, who recommended the surgical procedure, which will likely involve the placement of pins to stabilize the fracture. A six-week absence would bring him back around September 18, leaving him available for the final two weeks of the regular season.

The injury interrupts what has been an excellent season for Jung, a former first-round pick (2019), Top 100 prospect (ninth on last year’s list, 31st on this year’s), and first-time All-Star. Jung’s 22 homers lead all rookies, while his 2.7 WAR is tied for fourth among rookie position players, and tied for first among those in the AL:

Jung is unfortunately no stranger to injuries and surgeries. He went under the knife to repair a stress fracture in his left foot in early 2021 and didn’t make his season debut until June 15. He underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder — an injury suffered while weightlifting — in February 2022 and didn’t make his season debut until July 28, though he did get a September cup of coffee in the majors. The fracture won’t keep him out as long, though he is fighting the clock a bit if his healing proves to be slow.

Jung’s loss is compounded by that of starting catcher Jonah Heim, who also earned All-Star honors for the first time this year. The 28-year-old Heim, who has hit for a 123 wRC+ (.280/.337/.479) while starting 80 games behind the plate, landed on the IL retroactive to July 27 due to a strained tendon in his left wrist; he’s progressed to the point of taking batting practice on the field as of Tuesday, and will likely return to the lineup at some point mid-month. The two absentees rank “only” sixth and seventh on the team in terms of wRC+, because the Rangers’ offense is an absolute juggernaut, with the majors’ highest scoring rate (5.78 runs per game) and wRC+ (122). The lineup is so deep that 11 of the 12 players who have gotten at least 150 PA have hit for a 99 wRC+ or better, with outfielder/DH Robbie Grossman (92 wRC+) the only one missing out on the party. On the other side of the ball, the team is also without a third All-Star in starter Nathan Eovaldi, who is working his way back from a forearm strain. The combination of his injury and Jacob deGrom’s UCL tear spurred the Rangers’ aggressive approach to upgrading their rotation ahead of the deadline.

In Jung’s absence, the Rangers plan to have Ezequiel Duran, Josh H. Smith and Jonathan Ornelas share the workload at third base. The 26-year-old Smith, the lone lefty swinger of the trio, has emerged as a useful utilityman in his second major league season, hitting .214/.344/.349 (101 wRC+) while playing shortstop, left field, third base, and second base. The 23-year-old Ornelas, who placed 22nd on the team’s Top Prospects list a month ago, was recalled from Triple-A Round Rock — where he was hitting .250/.360/.348 (80 wRC+) — to take Jung’s roster spot. He’s a 40-FV prospect, a spray hitter without much power. Speed and defense are his calling cards. He has the arm strength to play on the left side of the infield, albeit as a reserve; he’s no threat to Jung’s job.

The most interesting one of the bunch is the 24-year-old Duran, who like Smith was acquired from the Yankees in the Joey Gallo trade on July 29, 2021, and who has to rate as one of the majors’ most improved players this season. After entering last season as the no. 68 prospect on our Top 100 list, Duran made the jump from Double-A Frisco to the majors in early June, then bounced back and forth between Round Rock and Arlington a couple of times. He hit just .236/.277/.365 (82 wRC+) in 220 PA while chasing 42.1% of pitches out of the strike zone and punching out 24.5% of the time. While he’s still hacking away (41.4% chase rate, 27.3% strikeout rate), he’s also hitting the ball much harder this year:

Duran has done a much better job of elevating the hall, unlocking his 60-grade raw power to hit 14 home runs to go along with his .277/.322/.474 (117 wRC+) line. In fact, among players with at least 200 PA last year and 300 PA this year, his 4.5-mph gain in exit velocity is the highest in the majors, as is his 14.5-point jump in hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, his 6.3-point increase in barrel rate is tied with Sean Murphy for third behind Corey Seager (+8.6%) and Michael A. Taylor (6.6%), and his 35-point increase in wRC+ is ninth.

Duran’s versatility and newfound punch has made him a secret weapon of sorts for the Rangers. He began the season in a left field platoon with Smith, and the pair soon switched to filling in for Seager when the shortstop suffered a Grade 2 left hamstring strain in mid-April. For the last three weeks of Seager’s five-week absence, Duran was the everyday shortstop, and since then he’s remained in the mix at one position or another, including more time at short during Seager’s recent absence for a sprained right thumb. In all, Duran has played 36 games at shortstop, 25 in left field, 19 at DH, four apiece at second and third, two at first, and one in right. No word on whether he owns a catchers mitt.

Back to Jung. One bummer about his injury is that it could not only cost him the AL Rookie of the Year award, it could cost the Rangers a draft pick via the Prospect Promotion Incentive from last year’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Because Jung was a Top 100 prospect with a spot on the Opening Day roster, he would net the Rangers an extra draft pick after the first round if he were to win Rookie of the Year or finish in the top three of MVP voting.

Right now, that’s of secondary concern to the Rangers, who jumped out to a 40-20 start but then went 20-26 from June 7 to the end of July as their lead over the Astros dwindled from a high of six and a half games down to half a game. The combination of their roster additions and their recent surge has improved their odds of winning the AL West from 39.7% to 48.7%, and of making the playoffs from 75.1% to 90.8%. The remainder of the AL West race looks to be more of a sprint between the two Texas teams than a dogfight, as they face each other only for a three-game series in Arlington from September 4-6. Jung won’t be back in time for that, but if his surgery and healing goes according to plan, he should be able to help Texas sew up its first playoff spot in seven years.