Michael Lorenzen Brings Down the House in Philly

Wednesday night in Philadelphia didn’t start off as a celebration of Michael Lorenzen. Making his first home start after joining the team at the trade deadline, he struggled to get comfortable on the mound. The first batter of the game, CJ Abrams, smashed a pitch to the warning track in the deepest part of the field. The next three batters worked full counts, with one walking. Keibert Ruiz worked another walk to lead off the second inning. Lorenzen threw 53 pitches in the first three frames. Through four, he had three strikeouts and three walks.
Luckily, he didn’t need to be the focus, because a celebration in Philly was happening one way or another. Weston Wilson smashed a home run in his first major league at-bat. Nick Castellanos popped a two-run shot in the first and followed up with a solo shot in the third. The Phillies were romping over the Nationals on a glorious summer evening. And that’s leaving the best part for last: Ryan Howard was in the booth to celebrate opening a new chicken and waffles stand in the stadium.
I won’t lie to you; those waffles looked good. John Kruk was nearly rapturous as he contemplated them. At one point, he openly begged Alex Call to finish an at-bat quickly so the booth could go to commercial and he could eat. Howard seemed happy, too, and the Phillies continued to pile up runs while he recapped the genesis of his foodie vision. After four innings, the Phillies led 6-0, and the celebration was in full swing.
Obviously, though, you aren’t here to read about Howard’s chicken and waffles, or to learn, as I did, that Kruk avoids spicy food. You’re here because a funny thing happened in the back half of this game. Lorenzen, staked to an enormous lead, started attacking the strike zone. He dared the Nationals to swing – four-seamers middle-middle and belt-high sinkers, calling out to be swung at. When he fell behind in the count, he fired one down the pipe and said “hit it.”
This being the Nationals, they mostly didn’t hit it. Calling their offense punchless might be going too far, but they’re towards the bottom of the league in every offensive category, and that doesn’t account for the fact that they traded their best hitter at the deadline. Abrams is coming on, and Lane Thomas has been good all year, but we’re not quite talking about Murderers’ Row here.
Suddenly it was the seventh inning, and the Nationals were still hitless. Lorenzen pulled his secondary pitches back out; he buried Jake Alu under a pile of changeups for his fourth strikeout and then mixed four-seamers high with changeups low to coax a groundout (smashed, great play by Rodolfo Castro) out of Ildemaro Vargas. Seven innings, 100 pitches, no hits – was this happening?
That last out of the seventh inning awoke the Philadelphia crowd from its post-homer lethargy. They’d been enjoying a casual demolishing of the little brothers of the NL East. Now, they might be witnessing history. A roar broke out, and the crowd rose to its feet to collectively cheer Lorenzen as he strode off the field. Six outs, six measly outs – surely he could do it.
Lorenzen came out sharp in the eighth – by which I mean, he threw some good pitches when the count made that possible and otherwise made the Nationals beat him by putting the ball in play. It was a brilliant plan all night; the Phillies recorded 15 outs in the air, few of them threatening to be anything more than cans of corn. Most importantly for Lorenzen, that eighth inning took only 11 pitches, which gave him enough runway to come back out for the ninth.
I’ve spent a lot of this writeup talking about Lorenzen’s ability to adapt his pitching to the situation, and that was on display in his last inning of work. The strike zone widens when no-hitters near the finish line. Hitters’ pulses rise – you don’t want to be on that highlight reel, you know? Lorenzen aimed for the corners to get ahead, then snapped off ridiculous breaking balls whenever he had the chance, hoping for a miserable flail from a desperate opponent.
That plan dealt with Thomas and Joey Meneses, the latter a victim of a called strike three that was both clearly outside and clearly a pitch you have to swing at in the ninth inning of a no-hitter. That left only Dominic Smith, but he wasn’t going down easily. After falling behind 1-2, he took and fouled his way back to a 3-2 count. Lorenzen looked gassed. “One more pitch,” Kruk breathed on the broadcast, almost a mantra. And Lorenzen left it up to the gods of contact one more time. He threw a slider right down main street at 85 and dared Smith to do his worst:
After the momentous end to the seventh inning, Citizen’s Bank Park had turned raucous. That energy carried right through to the end of the game. The place positively shook when Meneses struck out, and erupted even more when Johan Rojas squeezed Smith’s fly ball for the final out. Sorry Weston, and sorry Ryan; it was Lorenzen’s night now, and the crowd bathed him in applause as he exulted in his achievement.
If you didn’t know he hadn’t allowed any hits, Lorenzen’s line wouldn’t turn any heads. Five strikeouts, four walks; it’s not exactly the stuff of aces. But Lorenzen has never been an ace, and he wouldn’t tell you otherwise. He’s never been a high octane strikeout pitcher, and now that he’s transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation, he’s leaning more than ever on his savvy. Tonight was the crowning achievement of that style.
As the stadium roared and Lorenzen’s mom beamed from the crowd, the team mobbed him. What a glorious feeling it must be to combine the pinnacle of individual achievement with your first real taste at team success. Lorenzen has played for a winning team exactly twice in his major league career – the 2020 Reds went 31-29 and the 2021 edition finished 83-79.
This year’s Phillies are a cut above that – the defending National League champions, near-locks to make the playoffs and another run at the title. And he’s one of them now, indelibly linked with this team, this city. You won’t be able to tell the story of the 2023 Phillies without mentioning this night, which means you won’t be able to tell it without mentioning Lorenzen. How wonderful that must feel after nearly a decade in the wilderness, hoping to start, then getting your wish only to toil in obscurity.
Baseball is about a lot of things. It’s about the crack of the bat and the roar of the crowd, the beauty of close plays and the shocking speed and strength of grown men wearing ridiculous pajamas. Increasingly, it’s about numbers too – teams are getting smarter and smarter about separating what seems important from what is important. But regardless of the numbers, tonight was important. Baseball isn’t just about who wins the trophy at the end of the year. It’s about nights like these, and players like these. What a glorious night for Lorenzen, and what a wonderful celebration of baseball.
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @benclemens.
Nick Castellanos hit his 199th and 200th home runs tonight. The Phillies gave out rings to their employees before the game. Lorenzen’s mother, his wife and their daughter were all there. Weston Wilson had his family there. Liam Castellanos was flirting with everyone. Quite the evening.
So happy for Mikey Biceps. Great guy. Hoping he winds up back on the Reds next year
I think they’re going to have more competition for his services than there was two weeks ago.
Nicely written. An old fashioned no-hitter. Not a lot of Ks, a few walks, maybe a good play or two, inning after inning it goes on, Utter dominance is fun to watch, but this stuff makes you smile.
I picked the game up in the 7th and was transfixed by the atmosphere that developed as the excitement built. As an old-timer who remembers, with great appreciation, when men were men and the thought of yanking a pitcher who had a no-hitter going through 7 would have put the manager’s future employment in doubt. I reveled in watching Lorenzen keep going and going, and the crowd going wild, as the pitch count rose to levels that were commonplace when Virgil Trucks threw two no-hitters during a season in which he went 5-19 or Nolan Ryan threw 235 pitches on June14, 1974 then continued to pitch for only 19 more seasons. It was, indeed, a glorious night for baseball and showed me, once again, why I have been in love with the game since that fateful August day in 1948 when I first walked up a ramp in Fenway and saw the Green Monster.
every time i hear no hitter and phillies i’ll think about them getting no hit in the world series. i’m so sorry
Brilliantly written, not a dry eye in Citizen’s Bank Park that night
Is there any research on how well starters have performed after they have thrown over 120 pitches? 124 seems pretty high in today’s game.
I’ve constantly wondered about the science of pitch counts/pitcher fatigue. Certainly it’s much more complex than just the raw number, but I’ve never seen it treated that way (though I’m certain teams are all over it).
Pitch count alone doesn’t account for pre-game/inning warm-up pitches, but how many/how hard you throw them must contribute to fatigue.
Then there’s pitch selection, if you are throwing a ton of curves would that not be more taxing than all fastballs? Or is pitch variety/diversity less fatiguing because it works the arm in different ways?
Also there’s the intensity/effort of each pitch. If a guy can throw his FB 100mph, but holds back 10% throughout the game he could certainly throw more/maintain quality longer than if he was going 100% every pitch.
There are so many more potential variables, just regarding time there’s the duration between pitches, between innings, between first pitch and last pitch, between outings. There’s the load on the pitcher so far this season, and in his career, how deep they went in recent starts, how deep they go on average, their previous maximum pitch count, and so on.
Obviously I don’t have any of the answers myself, but man in my head pitch count alone barely scratches the surface of pitcher fatigue.
Most teams make it more complex than that. Pitch counts are a proxy for pitcher fatigue and stress. Teams look at a lot things other than just the pitch count number.
Teams look at pitches per inning – not just in terms of average, but also in terms of outliers, high or low. A 30+ pitch inning is way more stressful than a 15-20 pitch inning.
Teams look at the number of up-downs – how many times pitchers get warmed up, get hot, sit and cool down, and so forth. That’s a different kind of stress on the body, to warm up and pitch, then sit and cool down, then do it again.
Teams also look for other signs of fatigue like declines in velocity, misses on location, changes in mechanics, and the like.
It’s been 25 years since Rany Jazayerli and Keith Woolner’s introduced Pitcher Abuse Points, and there’s been a lot of work done to figure out how to keep pitchers from getting injured. We’ve figured out some things, but there’s still a lot more to learn.
It’s high, but raw pitch count numbers mean next to nothing and Im honestly surprised we haven’t moved on publically (not talking about you in particular here) from using them to gauge an outing’s “damage”. There are 80 pitch outings that will take more out of a pitcher than a 120 pitch one. Context, effort, season workload, the flow of the outing itself, etc etc etc. All those things matter
I’m surprised that John Kruk avoids ANY kind of food.
Tofu? Kale? I could see it
The only thing I remember about Lorenzen’s stint with the Tigers was him having to be apologetic about being a “bad” selection to the AL All-Star team. So I’m feeling happy for him getting the no-hitter and the love from the Philly fans.
Of the 22 non-strikeout outs, 10 were hit 100mph+. Baseball is a funny game.
I wonder if any single fielder, or any single outfielder has had more work to do in a no-hitter than Rojas had last night.
You ever hear of Bobo Holloman?
St Louis Browns 1953. 54-100.
30 years old. Back of the bullpen. Getting hammered. Headed to the minors soon.
He badgered the team brass until they gave him a start against the Philly A’s. Two teams going nowhere. Rainy day hardly any attendance.
In his first ML start, as THREE MEN ON THIRD put it, he gave up 27 blistering grounders, sizzling liners, and towering flyballs…
…every last one of which was caught.
First pitcher since 1892 to throw a no hitter in his ML debut.
Three more starts later, all short and brutal, he was back in the minors.
It’s baseball.
Gotta love it.
Should be very interesting the type of deal he gets this coming offseason.
I remember a time lomg ago when lorenzon was talked about as a two 2 way player. That’s not happening anymore. LOL
Wonderful! If only some team other than the Nats had been on the losing end 🫣