An Introduction to Adam Conley

Based on what was happening in my Twitter feed, scouts drooled over few players in spring training quite like they drooled over Adam Conley. My memory might be exaggerating things, but I know that Conley was getting a fair bit of hype. Now, the problem was that there’s not much meaningful analysis we’re able to do with spring-training performance, especially those that take place in Florida, away from any PITCHf/x instrumentation. But, wouldn’t you know it? Conley just pitched well on Wednesday in New York, nearly beating the Mets. You want to talk a little bit about Adam Conley? Let’s talk a little bit about Adam Conley. That way we can at least get him on our collective radar.

I don’t know what you already know about Conley. I don’t know if you know anything about him at all. That wouldn’t be anything to be ashamed of, so let’s just start with the basics. Conley pitches for the Marlins! He’s a lefty. He’s 25 — almost 26 —  and he got some time in the bigs last season. He was drafted in the second round, so he was considered talented, but he hasn’t been a top prospect. He’s neither short nor tall, by major-league standards. He throws a fastball, a changeup, and a slider.

The pitches are what make him most interesting as a pitcher. Let’s watch his most important at-bat from Wednesday, with two down and the bases loaded. This’ll give you some signs of what Conley is. To start off:

That’s a big pitch that got fouled off. Conley’s inexperienced, and he was in a jam, so any big-league veteran would’ve been looking for a fastball. Conley played off that and threw a low changeup that got the hitter out in front. That shows faith in the pitch, and so Conley got ahead. The next delivery:

A good spot, in off the black. Conley put the fastball where he wanted. Unfortunately for him, the pitch was a ball to even the count, but the hitter was behind, so Conley might’ve been thinking he’d get defensive. A swing here saws him off. And maybe, just maybe, the ump gives the benefit of the doubt. Anyway, 1-and-1. The next pitch:

What was supposed to be another inside fastball turned out to be a high fastball that got fouled off. You can say two things: Conley seemingly missed his spot, but he also didn’t miss in a bad place. Gives you the right sense; Conley has decent command, but it’s not pinpoint. So at this point, he’s shown the changeup, and he’s shown two fastballs around 92 – 93. The fourth and final pitch:

There’s the slider for you, with Asdrubal Cabrera thinking fastball. Conley tied him up and got out of the jam. Conley used the high fastball to great effect on Wednesday — it’s how he whiffed Yoenis Cespedes three separate times. That’s where Cabrera thought he’d go, and Conley just outsmarted him.

Conley isn’t perfect or anything. After all, he did load the bases. But he’s difficult, and there’s another thing you can kind of see from the Cabrera at-bat — Conley pitches righties inside with a lot of confidence. This is just what Conley’s done in 2016 with fastballs to righties:

There’s a lot of action there around the inner third. You’ll frequently see opposite-handed pitchers try to stay away, especially when their fastballs don’t naturally cut. Conley doesn’t do that, and you wonder if this might in some way be influenced by Jim Benedict — Benedict is a pitching advisor who came over from the Pirates, and the Pirates somewhat famously advocate working fastballs in. To this point, I count 60% of fastballs over or beyond the inner third. Compared to that, last year, only Glen Perkins threw more of his fastballs in to righties, among southpaws. This could be something that Conley keeps doing throughout the summer.

So we have a lefty with three pitches. He works his fastball inside. If you look at his delivery, you wouldn’t be crazy for thinking about Chris Sale. The Marlins broadcast even brought up Randy Johnson on Wednesday, although Johnson, of course, released the ball about 30 feet closer to the zone. The delivery and arm slot are a little funky. And I also think there’s a little deception to the fastball, that makes it a better swing-and-miss pitch. I pulled information from the Baseball Prospectus PITCHf/x leaderboards. I looked at fastballs thrown last year by lefty starters. Only a few of them had more than 10 inches of horizontal break, like Conley’s. And of those, Conley’s fastball had the most rise. So the fastball has unusual movement, which hitters aren’t accustomed to. That can lead to a lot of missed contact, and it can lead to a lot of weak contact.

To bring it together: In Conley, I see a guy who can work off his heater. It’s a good primary pitch, because there aren’t many fastballs like it, and he uses it aggressively. The slider and the changeup are also passable, and that keeps hitters off of the heat. So there’s a talented pitcher here, the sort who can kind of sneak up on you because he’s more about subtleties than obviousness. Conley is both good and strange enough to have himself a long career. There’s nothing wrong with not having known him before, but it seems like it’s time to get familiar.