An Irresponsibly Early Preview of the 2017 Yankees

The New York Yankees are in the middle stages of an overhaul, both in terms of player turnover and also philosophy. Over the past few weeks, the team has traded Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, and Carlos Beltran for a bevy of prospects that includes four players near the top of Eric Longenhagen’s rankings of prospects traded at the deadline. Mark Teixeira wasn’t going to be back next year, so his retirement announcement is more a symbol of — rather than actual contribution to — a changing Yankees’ future. The news that Alex Rodriguez would be stepping aside as well, though, further adds to the changing of the guard in the Bronx. They were in a similar spot in 2013 and abandoned plans to build for the future so they could contend in the near term. Will they abandon those plans again or will they exercise a little more discipline?

The Chicago Cubs spent years both (a) getting rid of old contracts and (b) trading, drafting, and signing prospects. Last season, they began to see the fruits of their labor. The Yankees shouldn’t need to head down that path. The team’s farm system was strong before the team sold at the trade deadline, and it’s possible that some of the international signings from 2014 will start to make their way up the ranks in the near future, as well. The Yankees also have less of a financial need to get rid of bad contracts before contending. The Yankees have the financial power to spend to succeed. These are the larger long-term contracts they do currently possess:

• Jacoby Ellsbury (four years, $90 million)
• Masahiro Tanaka (four years, $89 million with an opt out after 2017)
• Brian McCann (two years, $34 million)
• Starlin Castro (three years, $31 million)
• Chase Headley (two years, $26 million)
• Brett Gardner (two years, $25 million)
• CC Sabathia (one more year at $25 M seems likely with his vested option)

Of those contracts, Sabathia is likely an overpay — but for just one season — and the Yankees might need his innings next year, even if they’re just of the average variety. Gardner, Headley, and McCann are all reasonable contracts which compensate each player at a rate pretty close to his actual value. If the team believes prospect Gary Sanchez is ready to take over full-time catching duties, then giving away McCann is an option to free up salary, but he’s not likely to bring decent prospects back. The same is true for Gardner. Castro remains an enigma, providing generally below-average production, but his salaries are hardly burdensome. Ellsbury has a contract from which the team might like to free itself, but it doesn’t necessarily make sense to pick up some of his contract for someone else when he’s still likely to provide average production from center field. Tanaka has pitched very well this season and should be the Yankees ace in 2017 before he opting out of his contract after that.

When looking at position players — and potentially adding top prospects Clint Frazier and Aaron Judge, perhaps Greg Bird as he returns from injury, and Didi Gregorius as he enters his first year of arbitration — the team looks fairly set. They’ll also still have Aaron Hicks as further outfield depth as he tries to recover from an awful season.

The pitching front is less rosy, but should be decent. Tanaka is a good start. Michael Pineda has had a maddening season with home runs and ERA, but his FIP and strikeout rate are still solid, providing hope for at least average production next season. Nathan Eovaldi eats innings. So should CC Sabathia. Adam Warren and Luis Severino should provide somethingat the back end of the rotation. Dellin Betances is amazing and Tyler Clippard should be decent.

All told, the cost of the team as currently constructed with Alex Rodriguez’s salary will end up around $170 million to $175 million. The Yankees haven’t had an Opening Day salary under $197 million since 2007, per Cot’s Contracts. The last two seasons, they’ve averaged right around $220 million. With roughly average production from every position save for Tanaka at the top of the rotation and Betances at the end of the bullpen, that probably puts the Yankees at a level where they can compete, but will likely put them a fair bit behind the favorites. This leaves them in a difficult situation: despite having a ton of money to spend, they also possess few opportunities for meaningful upgrades and face an incredibly weak free-agent market.

The Yankees encountered a similar set of conditions after the 2013 season, except without the promise of major-league-ready prospects. The previous offseason, they allowed Russell Martin (which turned out bad) and Nick Swisher (which turned out good) to leave in cost-saving moves with the ultimate plan of getting under the $189 million luxury tax threshold that would potentially save the team millions. The 2013 team finished with 85 wins and failed to make the playoffs, costing the team millions. The plan to get under the luxury tax was abandoned and the team signed Tanaka, McCann, Ellsbury, and Beltran to contracts that pushed the team close to $200 million even with Robinson Cano signing elsewhere and Alex Rodriguez’s year-long suspension saving the team more than $20 million.

If the Yankees were to make major upgrades, there are two fairly easy opportunities: starting pitching and first base/designated hitter. If the team wanted to put themselves in contention, they could try to pursue an ace. The problem for the Yankees is that the free-agent market has nothing resembling an ace available. Last season saw Zack Greinke and David Price sign massive contracts with Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann also getting $100 million contracts. This year, there’s 36-year-old Rich Hill, Andrew Cashner, Jeremy Hellickson, and Edinson Volquez.

This year’s crop of free-agent starters might deepen a rotation and provide more cushion in case of injuries, but it’s not likely to facilitate a meaningful difference for a team looking to upgrade over average. That leaves the trade market. The price for Chris Sale was incredibly high. If the Yankees go 2013 all over again, they might have to trade some combination of Frazier, Judge, the newly acquired Gleyber Torres or Jorge Mateo, undoing the meaningful work of the front office to get younger to build a sustainable winner in the future. That path is unlikely, but with their abundance of prospects, it will be available to them.

At first base and designated hitter the Yankees do have a few options. Edwin Encarnacion is 33 and hasn’t hit as well this year (producing a 135 wRC+) as compared to recent years, but he’s still a very good hitter and would fit into the Yankees plans without meaningfully blocking younger players. Mark Trumbo and (if he’s willing to move to DH) Jose Bautista would also be options if the Yankees want to contend next season without touching their prospects. Both Bautista and Encarnacion are likely to come with draft-pick compensation

If the Yankees want to contend, but can’t add an ace, they could hope for the best for their pitching staff and repeat this year’s strategy at the end of games. The free-agent market is generally weak, but two of the best relief pitchers in the game are available in Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen. Chapman will not be attached to draft pick compensation, but will also cost just as much as Encarnacion on the free-agent market. The franchise has a ton of prospects, a bunch of league-average players on the major-league roster and will likely want to contend after a disappointing 2016 season. They have options, but if they want to contend next year, they are going to have to spend on aging bats and relievers, players who tend not to be worth their contracts when all is said and done. Fortunately for the Yankees, they can afford to write off those future expenses without writing off future contention.