Angels Add Bour, Complicate First Base Situation
As reported by Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan, the Angels have agreed to a one-year contract with free agent first baseman Justin Bour, pending the usual physical. Financial terms have not yet been disclosed.
The particulars of the deal are likely the least important part of the signing. While certain teams would no doubt accept the dare, it’s very difficult to fumble too badly on any one-year contract that doesn’t have enough absurdity to fill…uh…some kind of scientific vial or flask that can hold abstract ideas? Back to the drawing board with that one. In most situations, the money isn’t enough to matter in the big picture, and if it doesn’t work out, you don’t have to cancel it before next year like it’s some health magazine you subscribed to as part of a New Year’s resolution because you thought you were actually going to go to the gym.
Bour has seen his value plummet at a rate usually associated with a position player nearing 40 or a pitcher who has surgery for a mystery shoulder ailment. A year ago, he was coming off of a .289/.366/.536, 25 home run, 143 OPS+ season. Now that wasn’t over a full season’s play (an oblique injury cost him about a month of the season), but it was still enough for 2.4 WAR over 108 games for the Marlins. An average player has real value and Bour came with the feature most prized by baseball executives: he was cost-controlled.
After receiving $3.4 million (instead of the Marlins’ preferred $3.0 million) in arbitration, Bour looked to have at least some trade value, given that he could not become a free agent until after the 2020 season. First baseman, especially middling ones, are at a historical low point in terms of their value, but the Marlins would have likely received something for Bour had they traded him along with the entire outfield after the 2017 season.
2018 ended up being a more-or-less healthy season for Bour, but also one of many steps backwards. While he was more selective at the plate – swinging at fewer pitches, which resulted in a career-high 73 walks – he saw worse results when actually hitting the ball. Walks are nice and all, but one of the key benefits of plate discipline is to that on average you’re hitting more advantageous balls and, at least theoretically, doing more with those pitches. Bour’s exit velocity was the worst of his career; Statcast’s xSLG measure thought his profile should have only resulted in a .419 SLG, rather than his anemic .404. Nor does ZiPS provide any solace, seeing his hit profile as only deserving of a .281 BABIP versus his .270 actual (down from a .310 zBABIP in 2017 vs. his .322 actual).
Further complicating Bour’s value is the fact he has fairly steep platoon splits and only has a .220/.303/.335 slash in the majors against left-handed pitching. Philosophically, one would prefer an average player to have exploitable platoon splits in this matter, but in practice, it’s generally difficult to pull off a true first baseman platoon in an age of 13-man pitching staffs and in this case, the first baseman not having any positional flexibility otherwise.
But strangely enough, the Angels may be the best fit for Bour, assuming they could not land a better option. Albert Pujols is now a year past 600 homers (and unlikely to reach 700) and collected his 3000th hit. Now, the celebratory reasons for continuing to play him full-time are as weak as the performance-based ones. After number 3000, the Angels showed no real inclination to begin reducing Pujols’ playing time; he played in 117 of the team’s 133 games (all starts) by the time bone spurs ended his season.
With a new manager in Brad Ausmus, this could finally change. Even though I think the team should be at the point of simply releasing the future Hall of Famer, I’m not sure the team is actually there yet, and a time share in which Bour is the primary first baseman and Pujols plays against occasional tough lefties — even with me being far from convinced that this version of Pujols is any more valuable against southpaws — is better than simply letting Pujols have the job for yet another year. There’s a non-zero chance that Bour is just there to be a pinch-hitter for Pujols or Ohtani, but I can’t imagine he would sign this early in the offseason – at a time in his career where he still has a good shot at re-establishing some value – if he believed he would just be used as a pinch-hitter.
This Bouring little move won’t get the Angels to the playoffs, but it can cheaply shore up one of their weak spots in the lineup, and hopefully also demonstrate a real change in an organization that hasn’t always been as merciless at dealing with their weaknesses as they should have been. The Angels still have the cash after this move to get a difference-maker.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | .236 | .327 | .444 | 381 | 45 | 90 | 14 | 1 | 21 | 69 | 52 | 113 | 1 | 111 | -2 | 1.1 |
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
I can’t help but wonder how things would look if the Angels had sided with Dipoto instead of Scioscia years back… Would we be in a better place? A worse place?
Bouring: A+
It boggles my mind the difference in value vs Andrew McCutchen and Bour as just one example. Pretty much corner types. One obviously is not a platoon guy, can play better defense, different positions to be sure, but the difference in values (10 million vs 2.5 million) makes me wonder if corner types are being undervalued at the moment. I realize this is not in a vacuum, but I can’t see M being 4 times better than Bour.
I see your point and don’t necessarily disagree but the idea the Cutch needs to be 4 times better is couched in the assumption that player value is linear.
Bour does literally one thing well. He can hit bombs as a LHB. That’s it. He’s not even a particularly good defensive 1B.
Frankly, I think he did well to get 2.5M. His skill
sethas NOT paid well in free agency over the last couple of years.Even is his sunset years McCutchen is a far more complete player.
Bour walks well which is one of the most valued skills in the game. Many players make a living from hitting bombs and taking walks. Defensive value at 1B doesn’t add up to much, nor does base-running of 1B. So, the one thing he doesn’t do is hit for average and even that hasn’t been a lost cause outside of last year. If you think Bour isn’t much of a player, then neither is almost everyone else. 1B/DH get played to hit. Why we are comparing a guy that runs around in the OF to a 1B, I am not sure…
And the FA market for one dimensional sluggers who can only DH/1B has been awful for he last couple of years. Walk/HR is absolutely a useful skill, but there’s a long list of guys who can do it. In order to get paid, they’ve either got to have other skills as well, or do the Walk/HR thing at a truly elite level.
The original post was about why does Cutch get $10M and Bour only $2.5. That’s why.
You know what team could have really used Bour? The Marlins. Homegrown player, hits dingers. Unless you think Garrett Cooper has a shot at being a real player, I’d try and bring him back.
I’m not about to critique the Angels for doing something that may reduce Pujols’ playing time, or (as Dan suggests is unlikely) them DFA’ing the guy. Bour is simply a much better player than their current guy at 1st. They’re still trying to win games. He came cheap. This is good. He’s a bridge to Thaiss while he works on his game in AAA. Virtually anyone better is more expensive, by a lot (Santana, Myers, Belt…Thames is cheaper, but still 3 times as expensive as Bour). And unlike Cron (who they probably never should have sold off) he’s a lefty, which is nice in a lineup with Trout and Upton. This was a good value move.
I’d definitely take Cron over Bour in a vacuum for only $2m more, but I looked up what the Cron PTBNL became, and LAA did really well to get Luis Rengifo out of cutting ties. All he did was hit his way into AAA with a pile of XBH, BB and SB as a 21 YO middle infielder.
A reunion would’ve been a better target, but Cron wasn’t going to pass up a cleaner path to another full season’s worth of PA.
They would have had to trade something to get him too, since I think the Twins had a priority waiver claim.
(I more or less agree with you here–my objections to the Cron trade were mostly around playing what’s left of Pujols on a team that wanted to win games, and I still think it was a bad move from that perspective…but things are probably going to work out for them).
Yeah, the Cron return could have just as easily been someone who didn’t earn 40-man protection throughout 2018. Like Dan gets at, he probably wouldn’t have been traded at all if Pujols had already reached 500/3000 a year earlier.
Bour at $2.5mil seems like a move with almost no downside and, while it saddens me, it does give them a better chance to release the ghost of Pujols past. They definitely need to do a lot more to hang with the Astros, but this gives them some flexibility at a low cost.
I am not sure they ever release Pujols. The less we repeat it, the less the chance that the Angles decide that is is an OK thing to do. I just don’t see it happening – Pujols would need a farewell tour year and that would be financially solid for the team that owns him. The team that cuts him loose will lose some fans as well. Heck, I went to an Angels game last year and the only thing I cared about was getting to see Pujols – Trout will be around for another decade. These teams have money flowing out of their ears – I am not sure why we even talk about money.
I wonder if Pujols would waive his no-trade clause to wrap up his career back home in Kansas City. If so, maybe the Angels could offer Pujols + prospects and cash to the Royals for Duffy and Kennedy. That would free up the Bour/Ohtani combo to play every day, and maybe give Pujols a more graceful end to his career playing regularly for a non-contender.
The problem is that Ryan O’Hearn looks like he might be a better player than Pujols too. This is the problem: There is virtually no team where he would be an upgrade except the Marlins, and even they should probably see what they have in Garrett Cooper. Still, I’d offer to trade him for Wei-Yin Chen and offer to make up the difference in money and see what they say.
Pujols is from the area; some people even went as far as suggesting Bubba Starling was drafted out of their backyard because they didn’t want that (passing on local, future star Pujols) to happen again. Which is kind of silly, since having passed on one player ought to have no effect on one’s evaluation of a completely different player.
Getting prospects and salary relief for Pujols’ limp into the sunset might legitimately sell some tickets, though. I don’t disagree that even a fringe prospect like O’Hearn might (slightly) outproduce Pujols in 2019, but he’s not on their next contender and unlikely to develop into someone with meaningful trade value. I think it’d be worth listening to from KC’s end if they don’t have to pay anything.
Do you really think Bour would be better than Pujols against lefties? Bour has a career 77 wRC+ vs LHP’s. Pujols has done better than that every year except 2017. Over three years, Pujols has a 91 wRC+ vs lefties.
I mean, it’s still a poor idea to roster a 1Bman with no positional flexibility who can’t run to do nothing but hit lefties. But if he’s on the roster, I’d think he’d be better than Bour vs lefties.
The Angels have another issue in the fact that Ohtani apparently can’t hit Lefties *at all* either (.222/.300/.354/.654)
The 3 of them combine to make 3 guys that are limited to 1B/DH – on a positional roster of just 12, and needing a 2nd catcher, it leaves you with only 1 other backup possible
Other option is they add 1 more backup by going with only 12 pitchers, but with that glass staff does anyone think that is a good idea?
That context makes the Bour signing very questionable.
Even if they do dump Pujols, they will still have their 1B and DH that both need to be hidden from Lefties if they are going to compete – so the then 2 backups (1 infielder, 1 outfielder) would have to be guys that hit Lefties and that they would plan on being used more times than not as a PH for their 1B & DH …as bad as Pujols is, I think just sticking with his rather neutral splits is smarter than adding Bour as a second 1B/DH that needs to be PH for late
Ohtani has now taken 110 PA against lefties at any level of pro ball in the US. Since when is this enough data to declare that whatever he batted against them in 2018 is representative of his baseline?
So your stance is the Angels should assume the 400 OPS difference in his splits doesn’t actually exist, and the fact he showed almost nothing in a very specificly isolated 1/3 of his PA is not something they should prepare for at all?
Well if constricting a roster on nothing but blind faith, sure, adding a 3rd 1B/DH that has so far shown he shouldn’t be asked to hit Lefties makes sense I guess…
Yes, exactly, because you’re drawing conclusions over what amounts to about thirty games. Almost 15 years ago, future MVP Chris Shelton hit a pile of bombs in about thirty April games. How’d the rest of his career go?
You’ve also got to take a look at Ohtani actually taking BP, or hitting in games. It’s not wrong to assume a AAAA LH bat probably won’t hit lefties without giving him hundreds of games to prove it, but you’re talking about an exceptionally talented player.
Platoon splits aren’t like stats that tend to stabilize fairly quickly, like zone discipline numbers. Tangotiger (I think…) wrote about platoon splits almost twenty years ago and suggested you’d need several seasons of data to consider platoon splits stable, and of course, the player is developing and then aging throughout. Clearly, MLB teams are willing to draw those conclusions sooner, but thirty games isn’t enough when you’re talking about the second best hitter on the team. Besides, if they’re lucky enough to contend, even teams with terrible farm systems like Boston’s can still acquire a RHH platoon bat with relative ease (no one even bid on Danny Valencia before BAL released him last season).
The correct stance is that you should take his numbers so far and regress them to 1000 PA.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimating-hitter-platoon-skill/
You say he can’t hit lefties at all, but I am 100% positive that slash line is better than I would do against MLB lefties, and I bat right handed in our slow pitch beer league.
Wow, Billy Butler?! Could I please get an autograph? Thanks!
Pujols was quite a bit worse vs. lefties last year than righties, actually. 274 OBP and 84 wRC. Not that his numbers vs. righties were good or anything, but the idea of putting Pujols on the short side of a platoon may make him even worse. Man, I wish he’d retire. Hate seeing an all time great make himself worse 🙁
Would you retire and give up $75+ million? I doubt it, You’d probably do what Pujols is doing and play out the string (although I doubt Pujols would be heartbroken if he was released and could collect his money without embarrassing himself).
No, and if he thinks he can still play (and he does, he’s said multiple times how many RBIs he hits is valuable) I guess he should. But I hate watching that career average drop. It probably goes below 300 this year, which arbitrary as that is, would have been great to see him enter the Hall with a 300+ average. And he’s even sacrificing career WAR for counting stats, too.
🙁
.300 isn’t arbitrary any more arbitrary than WAR or anything else – in fact it is one of the few steady benchmarks that hasn’t come and gone – although people are trying to make it go away. Its what everyone has shot for for decades. As I mentioned above – the decline shouldn’t amount to anything. Unfortunately it will using some metrics, but don’t use them. You and I know that Pujols hit over .300 in his first 10 seasons – that is all that matters. Anyone who doesn’t get that doesn’t have a meaningful opinion on that issue. Kind of funny that he did it for 10 straight, then hit .299 and never hit .300 again. he will likely end with 10 straight non .300 seasons.
If you hate the Pujols decline, then don’t look at his career batting average… it is still over .300 but it can’t take on much more water! It reminds me of Vlad Guerrero a bit where he hit over .300 every year until 2 of the last 3 – in his last “terrible” season he hit a career low .290.
I firmly believe that you can never tarnish you legacy, but that is just me. What he did is in the books and nothing can undo it. What if he was a coward and just quit the day it was no longer easy or the fist time he encountered resistance? The human in me appreciates a person trying to hang on until his strength completely gives out. I think it is actually pretty bad ass trying to compete with young men at their peaks as an older man with a host of injuries. If that ain’t respectable, then I don’t know what is. It is going to be up to knowledgeable fans to draw that line through his career stats because the computers are just going to see this pull down his averages and the transient fans are going to point at how bad Pujols sucked at the end. Don’t sweat the decline – it doesn’t make much sense.
I have a feeling that Pujols might be holding out his playing time for his grand return to St Louis in June. I think after that series there will be some type of handshake deal/transition to special assistant retirement similar to the ARod & Yankees deal. Where the Angels can transition his money away from the luxury tax payroll threshold and into the front office payroll.
This could also be me, as an Angels fan, trying to think of any possible way that the Pujols contract will somehow not negatively affect the team’s roster next three years by having him carry a 25 man spot.
If Bryce Harper was willing to move to 1B– and Boras has alluded to his being open to it– it seems like the Angels would be a dark horse candidate to bid for his services. With Artie Moreno hinting at a possible move to Las Vegas, Harper might actually consider it!
They will just platoon Bour and Pujols. As far as platoons go it is really straightforward.