Another Way to See the Angels’ New Addition

While you were off doing something else over the weekend, the Angels picked up a new second baseman. Granted, their new second baseman was to be someone else’s bench player, so we’re not talking about a blockbuster, and that same would-be bench player had just expressed frustration over losing his starting job. And so Danny Espinosa was sent to California, with the Nationals picking up Austin Adams and Kyle McGowin.

You want to know another way to know this wasn’t big? The Nationals made a trade for Angels prospects. As we all understand, the Angels don’t have prospects, and here Adams might be the one who’s slightly interesting. He’s been a tough-to-hit Double-A reliever with significant control problems. The Nationals didn’t get a lot for Espinosa’s final year of team control. The Angels, though, should probably be pretty happy. They’ve plugged what had been a gaping hole, and Espinosa suffers from a perception problem.

Prior to the weekend, the Angels’ starting second baseman was going to be Cliff Pennington. “Cliff Pennington” is a commonly-used synonym of “replacement-level,” so it was no secret the team was in the market. The Angels could never offer much in the way of resources, so it was unlikely they could go get, say, a Brian Dozier or Ian Kinsler. Enter Espinosa, who’s coming off a 79 wRC+. That’s a worse offensive performance than Andrelton Simmons just had, and Espinosa hasn’t reached triple digits since 2011. Any Nationals fan understands that, at the plate, Espinosa might be the streakiest player alive.

Let’s start with one thing. Between the last two years, Espinosa saw that wRC+ drop from 94 to 79. But does that really mean he got worse as a hitter? Time to pull from Baseball Savant. Here are the biggest year-to-year improvements in average exit velocity:

I know it’s not a super sexy table, but there’s Espinosa in third. He was hitting the ball harder, on average, and he was also putting the ball in the air more often, which is generally a good way to take advantage of more solid contact. Espinosa’s Statcast indicators were positive. It feels like that should maybe mean more than the actual results, as odd as that might sound. In particular, Espinosa ranked very well in average exit velocity on batted balls in the air. He finished at 94 miles per hour, basically tied with Mike Trout (94) and Yoenis Cespedes (93.9). Here’s a look at a simple plot. This is slugging percentage on those air balls against velocity on those air balls.

By this measure, Espinosa underachieved. He deserved better on his tracked batted balls, and you could add something like 40 points to his slugging percentage. Espinosa, for sure, makes limited contact. He has a very significant strikeout problem. But the contact he does make should’ve led to more positive outcomes. Therefore I think that 79 wRC+ is somewhat misleading.

Now, there’s something else about Statcast a few of you know. If you’re a real Statcast dork, you know the tracking system has trouble picking up the really weakly-hit batted balls. Or, at least, the poor-performance batted balls. Weak grounders and high pop-ups straight into the air. On average, Statcast got readings from about 87% of all balls in play. Espinosa had just 79% of his batted balls tracked. That was the fifth-lowest rate in baseball, and it shows that Espinosa also generated a lot of poor contact. Look, he’s not a good hitter.

But now let’s get back to that perception problem again. Before he started to slump, Javier Baez was a playoff hero, a young potential superstar who shined in the spotlight. Espinosa, meanwhile, was played reluctantly by Dusty Baker, who told the media he didn’t have any other options. Espinosa had 79% of his batted balls tracked last year. Baez, too, had 79% of his batted balls tracked last year. How about a direct comparison?

They are different sorts of hitters, with Baez swinging more aggressively. So, Espinosa strikes out more, but he also walks more, because he gets into deeper counts. Espinosa is famously streaky, but it’s not like Baez isn’t, and by the information we have, Espinosa’s contact last year was at least as good. It was probably even a little bit better. They topped out around the same exit velocities, and while Baez has also drawn raves for his defensive ability and versatility, Espinosa is also terrific! For his career, as a shortstop, Espinosa has ranked in the top third of players in combined DRS and UZR. He’s ranked in the top sixth of second basemen in combined DRS and UZR. Baez, perhaps, is the better infielder, but it’s not clear-cut, and even if it’s true, the difference seemingly isn’t large. Baez is a defensive plus. As is Espinosa. They’re remarkably similar players.

Here’s a home run you could’ve pulled from the Javier Baez highlight reel:

Here’s a defensive play you could’ve pulled from same:

Two very streaky hitters with contact problems. One swings more than the other, but the results aren’t too different, or, they shouldn’t be, anyway. Both of the players are powerful, and they’re more good than bad on the basepaths. In the field, both of them are helpful at second base or at shortstop. As full-time second basemen, you could even imagine them winning Gold Gloves. There’s so much in the way of all-around potential, even if the strikeouts too often get in the way.

Danny Espinosa is basically present-day Javier Baez. He’s less exciting, because Baez gives you more to dream on. But that’s mostly because of Baez’s youth and remaining years of team control. Baez has the higher ceiling, but if he never improves beyond what he is, Espinosa is the result, and that’s really not so bad. Espinosa = Baez – fantasizing. That’s a perfectly useful player, if a frustrating player, and this should give the Angels another little nudge as they quietly threaten to get back to the playoffs.