Are the Phillies Spending Wisely?

As Craig Edwards noted closer to the start of this offseason, the Phillies have a lot of money to spend. Edwards estimated that Philadelphia entered the winter with approximately $70 million in payroll space, trailing only a rebuilding Tigers club that is unlikely to invest as much in its major-league roster as in recent years. While the Phillies have also been in a rebuilding period in recent years, they believe they are on the ascent.

Earlier this offseason, I attempted to better understand when the Phillies might begin to spend and what type of spending might make sense in free agency for the club. While the Phillies are likely to keep significant spending power in reserve until next offseason to court the likes of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, I thought some buying might make sense this offseason. Namely, this author thought it would behoove the club to target either some of the top free agents under 30 years old (like Tyler Chatwood, for example) and/or to explore two-year deals for talented arms like Michael Pineda and Drew Smyly — that is, pitchers coming off injury who wouldn’t benefit the club much in 2018 but could provide returns in 2019.

I closed with this:

The Phillies likely have their eye on spending next offseason, but there could be some opportunity this winter, too, for a team with about as much spending power as any club. At some point, they’ll need to use it.

Indeed, Philadelphia has started to use it considerable payroll space. They’ve just done it in a curious way.

The Phillies have spent. They have signed three free agents so far this offseason, to deals that guarantee $94 million over the next three seasons. The Phillies have so much payroll space that, if they find opportunity in this market, they should take it — even if they entered the offseason projected to win just 72 games.

But what’s curious is how the Phillies have spent.

Their big-item signing, Carlos Santana, is entering his age-32 season. Pat Neshek turned 37 in September. Tommy Hunter will turn 32 in July.

While some team is likely to surprise us like the Twins did a year ago and while the Phillies are perhaps a candidate to be that team if enough things go right, the odds are still against them in 2018. Even after those three signings, the Phillies project to win 76 games.

Dave Cameron and I each liked Santana entering the offseason, but we each question the fit for the Phillies.

Dave had him as his top free-agent bargain. This author, meanwhile, wrote that Santana was an alternative, and superior option, to Eric Hosmer.

As Dave opined, the deal Santana signed with the Phillies could very well produce value for the club. It’s a weird fit, nevertheless.

But there’s no way around this; the fit in Philly is weird and doesn’t really make sense. Santana is a short-term value, a guy who can help a team win right now, but probably won’t age extremely well. We currently have the Phillies projected for 74 wins. Santana doesn’t push them into playoff position.

And given that they already have Rhys Hoskins at first base and a crowded outfield, it’s not actually clear where Santana is going to play, or if the redistribution of talent to get him in their line-up will be a significant improvement. They could stick Santana at third, I guess, but he was horrible there, and Cleveland pulling the plug on that experiment should be a red flag if that’s the plan.

Neshek was productive a year ago, but he’s at a point in his career where his performance could fall off a cliff. Hunter is intriguing, but his addition might not help the club reach the postseason this coming season or in 2019.

In essence, in these three shorter-team deals — two-year deals for the relievers (Hunter’s contract includes an option) and a three-year deal plus an option for Santana — the Phillies seem to be paying for short-term upgrades that don’t move them close enough to playoff contention to justify the spending.

In 2018, the Phillies will be paying the trio $36.75 million and yet are unlikely to reach the postseason. In 2019, Santana will be 33, Neshek 38, and Hunter 33. Neshek and Hunter could be free agents in 2020.

The Phillies perhaps ought to be spending with a longer-term plan in mind.

Perhaps they could have signed pitchers coming off like injury like Smyly or Pineda, or under-30 free agents. They could have utilized it by “buying” prospects — that is, taking on bad contracts — from the Yankees or Dodgers. With the new luxury-tax threshold acting more like a cap, the Phillies are in a position to make some NBA-style trades, to buy prospects for bad contracts.

Now, as Eno pointed out, maybe the Phillies have a long-term vision in mind.

Perhaps by signing these veterans they add some wins, are more competitive in 2018, and become more appealing to Harper or Machado even if they don’t qualify for the postseason. After all, Harper and Machado are the big prizes they are expected to recruit next winter. If things go south, they could perhaps flip a Neshek or Hunter for young talent.

But they could have added to their appeal by adding younger talent with their payroll space. There are other ways to appeal and pitch to players like Harper and Machado.

The Phillies should begin to flex their financial might, but they perhaps could be doing so in a more efficient manner with a longer-term vision in mind.