Arizona’s Secret: No Scrubs

The hottest team in baseball are the Arizona Diamondbacks, winners of seven straight and nine of their last 10. Their run has vaulted them into first place in the National League West, and as we head toward June, they head up the list of surprising contenders throughout baseball. How have they managed to go from abysmal failure last year to early season success story this year? Essentially, it comes down to one word — balance.

They aren’t being carried by an MVP candidate having a monster season; in fact, it might be hard to identify who their best player has been this year. Ryan Roberts leads the position players with +1.9 WAR, but the team has also gotten +1.2 WAR or better from the starters at every other position on the field besides first base, and even that “weak spot” is now being manned on a daily basis by Juan Miranda, owner of a .250/.370/.490 batting line.

Essentially, every regular on the team is bringing something to the table. Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, and Miguel Montero are bringing the offense, while Chris Young, Gerardo Parra, and Kelly Johnson are playing quality defense and hitting well enough to justify their spots in the lineup. Miranda has hit when he’s played, and Roberts is doing a little bit of everything.

The bench hasn’t been great, but when the worst players on your roster are all reserves, then things are going pretty well. The team has already kicked Russell Branyan to the curb, and it will be interesting to see how long Melvin Mora sticks around if he keeps struggling. If they feel like adding new life to the bench, they have a lot of options down in Triple-A; the Reno Aces are hitting .310/.389/.527 as a team, and while the PCL is a nice place to hit, there are reasons to believe that a guy like Wily Mo Pena could help the team as a bat off the bench.

Essentially, the Diamondbacks don’t really have any glaring weaknesses among their everyday players. They don’t have a black hole at any position on the field, and when you have a team full of players producing at above-average levels, you’re going to win a lot of baseball games.

Arizona has had some struggles on the pitching side of things, but both Armando Galarraga and Barry Enright have already been excised from the rotation, limiting the damage that they could inflict on the team’s record. Rookie Josh Colimenter has been a revelation since coming up from Reno, and Zach Duke showed yesterday that he can still pitch effectively when healthy. Colimenter is in for significant regression even beyond just the .163 BABIP that he’s currently sporting (his command has never been anywhere near this good before, for instance), but worrying about how long your #5 starter will keep pitching over his head is a pretty nice problem to have, especially when it passes for the biggest concern on the team at the moment.

This good-everywhere-but-great-nowhere type of roster can often outperform expectations from those who look for star power first and foremost, but it also presents a bit of a dilemma for Kevin Towers if the team stays in contention over the next few months — with no obvious glaring holes, it’s hard to make the team better at the trade deadline. An upgrade in the starting rotation and another trustworthy reliever could be on the shopping list, but that’s on every team’s shopping list in July, and Towers might not be able to outbid others when it comes to getting one of the few quality arms that will be available this summer.

That said, if the team keeps getting this kind of production from their position players, they might not need to upgrade their rotation in order to hang around in the NL West all year. The balanced approach can work, as teams like Cincinnati proved last year. The Diamondbacks might not have a Joey Votto, but they have a lot of players performing at a high level, and in a division without a truly great team, that might be enough to keep them in the race all year.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

27 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
qudjy1
12 years ago

They could probably use another Bullpen ARM, and maybe a hired gun starter at the deadline. Bedard? Someone who is a rental would keep the cost down as well.

Patricio
12 years ago
Reply to  qudjy1

I really wouldn’t want to send any real talent for a guy who can’t even stay on the field. Bedard is too much of a question mark concerning whether he will be able to contribute anything at the end of the season and into the playoffs.

big league chyut
12 years ago
Reply to  qudjy1

Bedard’s also got the highest HR/FB rate of his career this year and he’s yielding more flies than before, which obviously doesn’t bode too well at Chase. But then again, a trio of Parra-Young-Upton is one of the absolute best defensive outfields in baseball, and as a back-end starter it’s probably not as big a deal. The real problem with looking for Bedard is that the M’s are only a game and a half out in their own division and have also been rolling as of late.

qudjy1
12 years ago

Yep – good points – Bedard maybe wouldnt be the best fit, but i was just trying to think of an example of a rental front line starter… The idea would be that AZ wouldnt give up a pile of talent, more just paying the rest of the salary for the year. The Ms spot in the standings wouldnt support a sell off either… Not sure of K-Rods situation with the vesting, but that might be a good BP addition…

Random Guy
12 years ago

Bedard is making just $1M for the year, so simply paying the rest of his salary won’t induce Seattle to trade him.

The Typical Idiot Fan
12 years ago

Bedard’s HR/FB problems are behind him.

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2011/5/21/2183082/erik-bedard-is-getting-stronger

That was posted a week and a half ago. Bedard has made another start since going 6 innings without allowing a home run. That makes five starts in a row now where he hasn’t allowed a long ball. All of his home runs came in his four starts (2, 2, 2, and 1). Even with his still current elevated HR/FB rate, Bedard is posting a 4.05 FIP and a 3.47 xFIP. He’s also at a cumulative 46% ground ball rate, closer to his hey-day years of 2006 and 2007.

Call the earlier starts “rust” if you want, since he hadn’t thrown against major league competition in some time. I’m not saying he’s totally back either, but he’s better now than he was at the beginning. That should make him an attractive target to someone.

ogZayYsj3r7CGsz
12 years ago

Random Guy –

$1M is the base salary. He has several performance bonuses that can earn him an extra $5.6M

http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110526&content_id=19613138&vkey=news_sea&c_id=sea