Astros Fire Cecil Cooper

Allow me to be forthcoming and honest when I say I have no idea whether Cecil Cooper managed well or poorly over the course of his time in Houston. I can look at the numbers, I can read opinions of analysts I trust, and I can attempt to form an opinion from that. What I do know is that he was not Houston’s biggest issue — unless he is the worst manager in the history of baseball that is – because managers can only work with what they are given. Take a look at how Cooper’s team ranked in the major statistical categories:

Rotational FIP: 12th
Bullpen FIP: 17th
Lineup wOBA: 24th
Team UZR: 16th
Positional Player WAR: 25th
Pitcher WAR: 23rd

That’s a middle of the pack team at best. They have a laundry list of issues heading into this off-season, and it starts with their self-evaluation. Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee will be 34-years-old next season, Geoff Blum will be 37, Miguel Tejada – if he returns – will be 36, and so on. The lineup is mostly on the wrong side of 30 with Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn being the only projected main clogs younger than 30. With such you would expect a bit of a decline to occur with aging.

Despite tallying only 22 WAR to date, the Astros will win more than 70 games this season. A replacement level team wins a few less than 50 games, so that’s about right. Maybe the Astros are a few wins better at true talent level – I don’t believe they are, but follow with me here – say 75 wins. Most teams would look at that lineup, stacked with a few guys who won’t be with the Astros the next time they hit 90 wins, and say: “Gee, we need to rebuild, we’re a mediocre team right now.”

Are the Astros going to reach that conclusion? Doubtful. The worst thing that could happen to the Astros was overachieving once more and pushing their draft pick in 2010 towards the middle of round one. I find that a lot more troubling for the future than whether Cooper is their manager or not.