Astros Internal Trade Chatter Leaked Online
So, this is something you don’t see everyday. The Astros database, nicknamed Ground Control, includes archived notes on past trade discussions. While written in shorthand, the notes are pretty detailed, and are definitely not something the Astros ever expected to become public. But that’s exactly what has happened, as someone anonymously uploaded a couple of files to a data warehouse called Anonbin.
Here, you can find all the notes on discussions from last summer.
Here are the winter discussions.
Among the notes found in the leak:
The Astros asked for Dylan Bundy or Kevin Gasuman in return for Bud Norris. Which sounds hilarious, until you notice that they included Xander Bogaerts on the list of possible players they would want from the Red Sox. Bud Norris was eventually traded to Baltimore for L.J. Hoes and Josh Hader, plus a draft pick.
Maybe even more hilarious: the Astros asked for Lucas Giolito in exchange for Lucas Harrell. Lucas Harrell was eventually designated for assignment in April.
The Marlins apparently noted that acquiring Giancarlo Stanton would require George Springer and Carlos Correa; the Astros countered with Jarred Cosart and Delino Deshields. I wonder which side thought the other’s offer was more ridiculous.
A friend in the game has independently confirmed that these leaks are legitimate, and noted that every team in baseball keeps similar notes just like this. This isn’t necessarily an indictment on the Astros for having these kinds of notes, but it’s certainly an embarrassment to their organization that they were not able to secure them well enough to keep them from getting out. I would imagine there are a lot of teams that are quite unhappy with the Astros right about now.
Anyway, enjoy the leaks, because I bet it will be a long time before we ever see anything like this get out in the public realm again.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.
Give me a call. We might be able to do business.
Do either of you guys know what “online” means?
PM me, I can introduce you to some good sites!
Nor is there any such thing as trust, my friend.
Now that you’ve blown your cover, can you help get me out of here?
Just walk into your nearest Ecuadorian embassy they’ll give you a hand.
Why were the Astros trying to trade for Stanton anyways? So he could be leaving right when they’re competitive?
That’s why they low-balled Miami with Cosart/Deshields. Stanton is just not worth that much to them.
“long time before we ever see anything like this get out in the public realm again”
I bet we see something like this within a few weeks. Every “hacker” or spotlight hog out there is probably figuring out ways to do this to some other team.
This is thoroughly disgusting and an affront to good taste and decency. I demand this entire article be removed from the site.
….said the user going by the handle Chaz Bono’s Sweaty Gash.
Why are some of the datetimes in the future? Is that an indictment on the validity of the information, or just icing on the Astros’ ignorance cake?
Might want to check the year there bud. 🙂
Whoops, I’m quite wrong, the winter one has 2014 dates. My fault.
I was wondering about that too.
Trade discussions are hilarious, especially in the early stages.
Thanks for informing me of that, o great and wise Cameron.
You push the limits to see what you can get. Larry Andersen for Jeff Bagwell.
Bagwell wasn’t a “can’t miss” prospect like Correa and Springer. His power wasn’t huge in the minors.
We live in a world where Doug Fister was traded for Robbie Ray. There is no reason NOT to ask for the moon, even if only to clock how quickly you are rebuffed.
Especially when, if the notes are to be believed, Duquette didn’t dismiss Bundy for Norris until 2 days later
AA seemed more than willing to do Stroman (and then some) for Norris as well. interesting.
A negotiating tactic. He rejected one offer, and said he’d get back to them on the Bundy offer. It was never serious, but that allowed him to come back with another offer. Scarily, I do similar things when people make me ridiculous offers for players in my fantasy league. I leave the door open and then come back with a counter.
In before RobM is the Padres’ new GM
That trade still makes me curse and throw things when I think about it.
I feel like I play in a fantasy league with these lowballers!
This feels a little sleazy, definitely not something I expect from Fangraphs. I feel like you guys are better than posting this. Leave this stuff to Deadspin.
obviously entitled to your opinion, but I find this fascinating and I’m glad I was linked to it. it isn’t as if DC uploaded the files.
I think that the DC snark is what makes it sleazy. Viewed objectively, this is fascinating.
Fangraphs isn’t a front for MLB. They analyze the sport, and this is information that’s ripe for analysis and comment. It’s the teams’ responsibility not to let sensitive information leak, not analysts’ responsibility to ignore such information when it does leak.
Exactly.
I’m stealing your name for my fantasy team.
Well, if you can call snark analysis. At least Dave could have tried to explain to the layperson who might wander by here that these trade discussions seem hilarious because of the way that negations work. It’s a classic strategy to start out with high prices and come down when you are selling, and the reverse when you are buying. I don’t find these notes all that funny, just interesting that they actually do start out with these crazy proposals and later come down to reality. You at least have to try – the other guy might be sleeping – the perception I had of the Fister trade was that other organizations were surprised and wished they had the chance to top the offer.
Good point on the Fister trade. Most of the notes in the leaked documents were just about teams sending out feelers on certain players. This in turn can help build up the value of a player, when you can say things like “we’re talking to the Jays about Stroman and others for Norris”, even if AA didn’t say yes (just didn’t say a final no)
I am involved in brokering the acquisition and disposition of institutional grade income producing commercial real estate assets. The negotiating tactics illustrated herein are not only the correct way to go about a sale or a purchase, which is what a trade ultimately is, but some will argue, as myself, that it is the only way. The worst that usually occurs is a “no” answer or a lack of response. In both cases the deal is not dead, you just re-submit your offer.
Either the ignorant commenter do not have experience in negotiations, or they are letting the fact that tactics in question are baseball and letting their respective fandom cloud their judgment.
It’s all just business.
Please do, Schide. 🙂
How is it sleazy? It’s trade discussions. Big deal.
Joe Buck is that you?
FG also didn’t break it. It’s one thing to break it, entirely another to analyze what has been broken.
Huh? This should be on every sports site! Oh, and it is.
On the contrary, FG does a lot to try to show us how baseball teams work, pull the curtain back so to speak. Everyone seems to love Tony Blengino’s articles showing how draft rooms work, talent evaluation, etc. I think its great that we get to see how teams bargain through the trade process, I knew it wasn’t just Brad Pitt looking cool and casual on a landline.
Thanks for bringing this to my attention dave, I probably wouldn’t have seen it otherwise
Some of this reads like fantasy trade proposals from the guy who offers you two players for your star, and when you reject him he drops the two players from his roster.
Exactly. The notes on the Dexter Fowler trade come the closest to what happens on an actual completed trade.
Not a surprise, but interesting to hear that the Mets “have some pressure to get better next year”
What surprises me is that someone actually said that.
Are the expectations for a normal year to take long lunches and afternoon siestas?
Colorado bid $63 million for Jose Abreu. Lost out by $5M. That’s an interesting nugget.
I wish they’d have won. Imagine Abreu playing 81 games at Coors.
According to fangraphs guts, the Comerica actually has the highest HR for RH park factor, at 114. So Abreu may actually already be in the place best suited for his skillset.
Then I stand corrected. Thanks.
Did you mean Comiskey?
He doesn’t play in Comerica though.. his home park is US Cellular.
There’s no way that’s right.
1) What does Comerica have to do with anything?
2) did you take into account that Areu’s “skillset” includes having massive power to right center field, exactly the part of Coors that is most live?
I mistyped Comerica for US Cellular, but the list on Guts is by team, so my overall point is correct.
@cs3
1. I always confuse Comerica and US Cellular in name. I was looking at the right team though.
2. US Cellular rates pretty highly in HR to lefties too. And Abreu really hasn’t hit that many of his homers to right-center. Most have been to left-center/left: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/overlay/overlay_1404232761_575411566.jpg
Abreu wasn’t a blind bid like the pre-2014 Japanese players. It is more than they offered a $63M contract and Chicago $68M and none of the other 29 teams believed Abreu was worth more than that.
So any knowledge as to where this came from?
Whoever posted it clearly wanted to remain anonymous…
Not a bad idea.
Revenge of the Unpaid Interns?
The boot fits. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/job-posting-astros-internship/
Clearly Kevin Goldstein.
In a Q&A, Luhnow claimed it was definitely an outside source.
http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2014/06/30/astros-gm-jeff-luhnow-addresses-trade-leaks-deadspin/
It is amusing to see that GM’s trade demands can sometimes be as wildly unrealistic as a fantasy player’s.
“That’s not gonna work, huh? Ok. How’s about we send you Krol, Lombardozzi, and Ray for Fister?”
*****
“Deal.”
The ***** represents the point in those negotiations where the demands seemed wildly unrealistic.
There’s a difference between an offer that you actually think is fair and an offer that you’re sure you won’t regret. If you’re not motivated to make the trade, I think a lot of people just default to offering a trade that they’re sure they won’t regret.
Regarding those trade proposals, the Astros only look dumb if they make those offers expecting that is what they will actually get. Otherwise, it looks to me like more of a typical bargaining technique. If you ask for the maximum, then when you settle in the middle, the middle is higher than if you started out asking for something reasonable. Whether that works, I don’t know, but I highly doubt the Astros had any expectation that the O’s would part with Bundy or Gausman for Bud Norris.
Right. It’s a way of saying “impress us.” It’s also a psychological technique used by attorneys in civil litigation. If you ask for an insanely high price, when you come down to the real price, you can get more. If you start off too close to the price you’re willing to pay, you’re more likely to have to bargain down to where it’s uncomfortable. This is why people sue for $40 million instead of $40,000.
I think the Astros look really good in the transcripts – aside from the fact that they were leaked.
However, like in these cases, if you ask for the moon you’re just as likely to have the other side hang up and assume that there won’t be an amicable settlement.
I’m with Sam. I consider that kind of behavior unproductive and avoid dealing with such people as much as possible.
But the Astros are likely getting those calls as well, not just making them. Especially now, when they have actual ML players.
For those interested, the technical name of this technique is the Anchoring and Adjustment heuristic. It’s less about the amount of movement when bargaining, however, and more about how people value things. Since there is no absolute measure of true talent, the relative worth of a baseball player is determined at least partly by perception. By merely associating “Bud Norris” with “Dylan Bundy”, the value of “Bud Norris” increases, regardless of how valuable “Bud Norris” actually is. As an example, if you give two groups of people descriptions of an identical product, one priced at $100 and one priced at $1000, then ask each group what the product is actually worth, the $1000 price group will routinely give much higher valuations than the $100 group.
And if you give them a third product at $500, they’ll usually decide it’s the best value and buy it. Not as expensive as the high end, higher quality than the low end.
Thank you. Finally, someone gets it.
I was attempting to convey the same message, however did not do so as well as you did. The brevity is appreciated as well. Kudos.
This is true, but amusingly enough if you then come down to the price they’ve named as “fair” on the $1000 item they will often still say “that’s too expensive” because you’ve ALSO anchored their perception of the $1,000 product as being overpriced.
Their estimate of “fair market” has gone up, but their estimate of their own willingness to pay may not have gone up by nearly as much.
Probably not a big risk factor for MLB deals where the people are being paid to negotiate this kind of deal, have only 29 potential partners, and substitute goods aren’t readily available; but in the world most Fangraphs readers live in if someone somehow convinces me that Toyota’s new car is “worth” $50,000 by listing it at $200,000 the effect is not that I pay more for a Toyota, it is that I don’t even look at a Toyota and buy a Honda or Ford instead.
i think the world of AA but really, would consider Stroman for Norris? that’s nuts.
possible performance versus proven-and-hopefully-improved performance.
Obviously wih current information/performance but you have to look at the time the talks were happening… Stroman was just AA midget
Was he really considering it?
I had absolutely nothing to do with this! (tongue firmly in cheek)
I’d have to see similar notes for other teams to see if these offers are really laughable. If it’s commonly accepted for a team to ask for a Bundy-like prospect for Norris, then I don’t see what’s wrong with the Astros doing it. That’s not really worse than Zambrano/Kasmir, is it? On the other hand, if the Astros are floating out those offers and the other 29 teams are more in tune with reality, then I could see why GMs would hate dealing with the ‘Stros.
I feel for the Astros here. I know leaking info is common. And when it’s gov files and all that people have their opinions on it being appropriate. It it this seems like it was leaked just to be leaked. For a team like the Astros, this could be actually harmful as future teams might be hesitant to talk trades for fear that it’ll again get out there.
Don’t get me wrong. The media publishing it is doing what it should do. But I sympathize with the ‘Stros.
Classic AA telling the Astros he “has a lot of balls in the air right now at the same time.” I thought that was only some weird catch phrase he used for the media.
I offered them Joc Pederson for Bud Norris, but it turns out I was emailing Astro, the cartoon dog from the Jetsons.
Hey! I was wondering why my dog was chatting you up!
Rud Rorris!!! Rooooooooo!!!!
Rut roh.
Not sure why the author finds it “hilarious” that the Astros asked for Giolito, Bundy and Bogarts. In fact, I’d be a little worried if Luhnow didn’t ask for them.
1. You had multiple teams calling about Norris. (Many of these teams in the same division competing against each other).
2. Norris was a 2.7 WAR pitcher in 2013. Giolito and Bundy were coming off TJ, and Giolito had yet to throw a professional pitch. At this point, we still have no idea what Giolito and Bundy will be, if anything, because they are still prospects. A bird in the hand….
Giolito was coming off TJ when the Nats made him their first round pick. Would anyone have ever assumed Harrell was worth the equivalent of a first round pick? Rizzo has a track record of win-win trades (save for that one) but AA seems content to have shut him out. A’s and Nats have both done pretty well dealing together.
this made me laugh pretty hard:
“JL told him we would still need a headliner like Giolito because we still value Harrell highly. Rizzo did not respond”
Sounds like me as a GM. In my OOTP online league, I am practically known for making ridiculous offers. For example: I offered Bastardo, Mayberry Jr., and Lunnun for Taveras and Molina this off-season.
Last year was the first I ever tried fantasy baseball and the league’s commissioner insistently offered me Konerko and packages revolving around Konerko for McCutchen. So I traded him for a song to another member for a player of Konerko’s worth, for the offer to be vetoed of course.
Fantasy Capitalism isn’t really all that fun.
I’m not the commish. He said he was open to offers on anyone, and it’s not like I tried to force the trade.
Am I the only one whose first thought was, “Man, their database design sucks. No primary key???”
Given the Astros progress toward respectability, which is proceeding faster than some may appreciate, I would judge their process by their results. As a Mariners fan I see them becoming a force in the now toughest division in the game sooner than many expect.
Wrote a letter, as naive as it may be, to Cards GM Walt Jocketty asking that he make an offer to Cleveland for 2nd yr player Brian Giles. I said you could probably obtain him for a 5th starter type since Indians were starving for pitching. I’m assuming his secretary stashed my letter in the circular file and the Pirates surrendered Ricardo Rincon (of the movie Moneyball fame). Brian Giles went on to star for Pirates for several years In exchange for an average reliever and left me wondering how overrated some of these GMs must be.
that is purely anecdotal. I would have to see the advanced metrics on Jocketty
I totally agree, it seems to me that GM’s use BA’s Top 30 rankings to justify trades a lot, and thus I wonder how often they just pull up the book when trade talks start, and they start listing Top 10 prospects until the other team agrees?