ATC 2021 Projected Standings and Playoff Odds
Earlier this year, we released our team expected win totals and playoff odds for the 2021 season. These projections are based on the FanGraphs Depth Charts, which blend Jared Cross’ Steamer projections with those of Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS, with playing time allocated by our own Jason Martinez of RosterResource fame; the playoff odds then simulate the season 20,000 times, taking strength of schedule into account.
We thought it’d be interesting to duplicate that process, instead using the Average Total Cost (ATC) Projections.
The ATC player projections have been available on the pages of FanGraphs since 2017. Similar to the Depth Charts model, ATC is an aggregation of other projections. While most other accumulation models typically apply equal weight to all their underlying data sources, ATC assigns weights based on historical performance. The method is similar to what Nate Silver does with his political forecasting model at FiveThirtyEight.com. You can read more about how ATC works in the introductory article here.
Over the past few years, ATC has consistently been one of the most accurate baseball forecasting models. Indeed, according to FantasyPros, the ATC projections have been the most accurate baseball projections over the past two seasons. The success of ATC stems from minimizing parameter risk across the player pool. You can read more about inter-projection volatility, how to use the ATC projections on the FanGraphs site, and what is new for ATC in 2021 here.
Without further ado, here are the ATC forecasted win totals:
| Team | Winning % | W | L | RS | RA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | .608 | 99 | 63 | 850 | 675 |
| Yankees | .590 | 96 | 66 | 904 | 750 |
| Padres | .584 | 95 | 67 | 812 | 679 |
| Mets | .575 | 93 | 69 | 817 | 696 |
| Braves | .563 | 91 | 71 | 844 | 740 |
| Astros | .553 | 90 | 72 | 814 | 729 |
| White Sox | .549 | 89 | 73 | 841 | 759 |
| Blue Jays | .534 | 87 | 75 | 896 | 836 |
| Twins | .530 | 86 | 76 | 829 | 778 |
| Rays | .526 | 85 | 77 | 797 | 754 |
| Brewers | .523 | 85 | 77 | 768 | 731 |
| Indians | .516 | 84 | 78 | 812 | 785 |
| Nationals | .512 | 83 | 79 | 822 | 801 |
| Red Sox | .511 | 83 | 79 | 847 | 828 |
| Phillies | .507 | 82 | 80 | 805 | 793 |
| Reds | .492 | 80 | 82 | 779 | 792 |
| Angels | .490 | 79 | 83 | 805 | 821 |
| Giants | .489 | 79 | 83 | 757 | 775 |
| Athletics | .483 | 78 | 84 | 728 | 755 |
| Royals | .470 | 76 | 86 | 772 | 821 |
| Marlins | .470 | 76 | 86 | 718 | 765 |
| Cardinals | .469 | 76 | 86 | 698 | 746 |
| Cubs | .462 | 75 | 87 | 746 | 809 |
| Diamondbacks | .461 | 75 | 87 | 746 | 809 |
| Mariners | .444 | 72 | 90 | 722 | 812 |
| Tigers | .436 | 71 | 91 | 747 | 853 |
| Rangers | .427 | 69 | 93 | 735 | 857 |
| Orioles | .426 | 69 | 93 | 779 | 906 |
| Pirates | .401 | 65 | 97 | 678 | 837 |
| Rockies | .398 | 64 | 98 | 727 | 899 |
And here are the simulated standings and playoffs odds:
| Team | Proj W | Proj L | Strength of Sched | Win Division | Win Wild Card | Make Playoffs | Win Pennant | Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 96.0 | 66.0 | .499 | 76.0% | 16.9% | 92.9% | 32.2% | 17.5% |
| Blue Jays | 85.8 | 76.2 | .506 | 10.8% | 33.5% | 44.3% | 6.1% | 2.4% |
| Rays | 85.0 | 77.0 | .504 | 9.3% | 30.8% | 40.1% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| Red Sox | 81.8 | 80.2 | .508 | 3.8% | 18.1% | 21.9% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Orioles | 66.8 | 95.2 | .517 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Team | Proj W | Proj L | Strength of Sched | Win Division | Win Wild Card | Make Playoffs | Win Pennant | Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox | 90.9 | 71.1 | .490 | 54.0% | 22.0% | 76.0% | 16.3% | 7.1% |
| Twins | 87.2 | 74.8 | .494 | 27.3% | 27.3% | 54.6% | 8.2% | 3.3% |
| Indians | 84.8 | 77.2 | .495 | 16.5% | 22.8% | 39.3% | 4.6% | 1.6% |
| Royals | 76.7 | 85.3 | .499 | 1.9% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Tigers | 70.9 | 91.1 | .502 | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Team | Proj W | Proj L | Strength of Sched | Win Division | Win Wild Card | Make Playoffs | Win Pennant | Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | 91.9 | 70.1 | .487 | 82.1% | 4.9% | 87.1% | 21.6% | 9.2% |
| Angels | 80.4 | 81.6 | .497 | 9.1% | 9.2% | 18.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Athletics | 79.5 | 82.5 | .495 | 7.2% | 7.6% | 14.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Mariners | 72.8 | 89.2 | .498 | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rangers | 70.0 | 92.0 | .498 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Team | Proj W | Proj L | Strength of Sched | Win Division | Win Wild Card | Make Playoffs | Win Pennant | Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | 92.0 | 70.0 | .504 | 53.7% | 28.2% | 82.0% | 19.7% | 11.0% |
| Braves | 90.0 | 72.0 | .504 | 37.7% | 34.9% | 72.6% | 13.6% | 7.0% |
| Nationals | 80.8 | 81.2 | .511 | 4.6% | 11.9% | 16.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Phillies | 79.9 | 82.1 | .511 | 3.6% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Marlins | 73.2 | 88.8 | .516 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Team | Proj W | Proj L | Strength of Sched | Win Division | Win Wild Card | Make Playoffs | Win Pennant | Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 86.6 | 75.4 | .486 | 62.8% | 4.0% | 66.8% | 10.0% | 4.1% |
| Reds | 81.0 | 81.0 | .490 | 22.7% | 5.2% | 27.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Cardinals | 76.9 | 85.1 | .492 | 9.0% | 2.2% | 11.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Cubs | 75.2 | 86.8 | .495 | 5.4% | 1.3% | 6.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Pirates | 64.7 | 97.3 | .500 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Team | Proj W | Proj L | Strength of Sched | Win Division | Win Wild Card | Make Playoffs | Win Pennant | Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 99.6 | 62.4 | .489 | 68.2% | 29.8% | 98.0% | 31.7% | 20.3% |
| Padres | 95.2 | 66.8 | .493 | 31.3% | 60.6% | 91.9% | 18.0% | 10.5% |
| Giants | 78.6 | 83.4 | .501 | 0.4% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Diamondbacks | 73.6 | 88.4 | .505 | 0.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rockies | 62.2 | 99.8 | .513 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Let’s take a quick look at some of the differences between the engine results for the ATC projections and the FanGraphs playoff odds.
The ATC projections are more bullish on the Brewers’ chances in 2021, putting the odds of Milwaukee making the playoffs at 67% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts projections figure of 39%. The FanGraphs playoff odds sees the NL Central as a wide-open division. Other than the lowly Pirates, each team is projected for at least a 22% chance at playing in the postseason. On the other hand, ATC models the Brewers as the clear favorites – with an expected five game advantage over the next best squad, the Reds.
At the other end of the spectrum, ATC has a vastly different view of the American League West. The ATC projections forecast the Athletics and Angels for five fewer wins apiece in 2021, placing the chances of making the playoffs at just 18% for Los Angeles and 15% for Oakland; the Depth Charts projections give roughly double those odds (37% and 34% respectively). At the top of the AL West, ATC projects the Astros to win one additional game versus the Depth Charts projection, enough to elevate Houston’s chances of a postseason berth from 70% to 87%.
The full win total disparity between the two projection engines can be seen below:
Both projections place the Dodgers, Padres and Yankees as the teams with the highest probability of reaching the postseason. ATC gives a slight edge to the Yankees over the Padres, with all three teams garnering at least a 90% chance to play an official 163rd game in 2021.
Ariel is the 2019 FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year. Ariel is also the winner of the 2020 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award. He is the creator of the ATC (Average Total Cost) Projection System. Ariel was ranked by FantasyPros as the #1 fantasy baseball expert in 2019. His ATC Projections were ranked as the #1 most accurate projection system over the past three years (2019-2021). Ariel also writes for CBS Sports, SportsLine, RotoBaller, and is the host of the Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod). Ariel is a member of the inaugural Tout Wars Draft & Hold league, a member of the inaugural Mixed LABR Auction league and plays high stakes contests in the NFBC. Ariel is the 2020 Tout Wars Head to Head League Champion. Ariel Cohen is a fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA). He is a Vice President of Risk Management for a large international insurance and reinsurance company. Follow Ariel on Twitter at @ATCNY.
Slightly off topic, but will the ATC projections incorporate info on Kirby Yates’ and Eloy Jimenez’s injuries before the season starts? Does this analysis reflect their status?
No, this cut of the sims were run immediately before the injury news. For the White Sox, I would estimate that they would lose about 1.5-2.5 games.
Giants fan here. So you’re saying there’s a chance?
Your fantasy projections have obviously been excellent….how have your season wins and simulated standings done?
This was the first time that we have run the full season sims. However, teams that have had an outsized number of ATC undervalued players have typically outperformed their Vegas projections.
Deleted this comment because I realized it was dumb.
Me too.
Wow, the Orioles have a >0.0% chance of making the postseason in this round of projections. Fangraphs eat your heart out.
Rockies fans, eat your hearts out.
I’m dumbfounded how the Rockies project as worse than the Pirates is the .013 difference in schedule strength really that big of a deal? I know the Rockies are bad, but I’d take Marquez and Gray over any of the dregs the Buccos are throwing out there, and there is no one on the Pittsburgh nearly as good right now as Trevor Story. I get that these are 50th percentile projections, but how anything can look at the Pirates roster/projections and not come up with 100 losses is crazy.
The other thing about the Pirates is that if they’re doing even slightly well it will likely be because some of the guys they’re looking to trade have performed at least well enough to be traded for lottery tickets. If guys like Polanco, Frazier (either one), Kuhl, Brault, Moran, etc, are contributing to a non-100 loss season they’ll be moved. Colorado is inexplicably resisting moving guys like Story when they obviously should.
0.13*162 = 2.1 more losses
Thanks for some reason I didn’t think it was that simple. That’s pretty much the whole difference, but that would mean that the projections see the teams as equally bad. I still can’t look at the two rosters and not see the Pirates as worse though.
A lot of this just has to do with not just the strength of schedule, but the spread. None of the Pirates’ divisional foes is overpowering: they’re all better than the Pirates, but none is better than about a 85 or so win team.
The Rockies on the other hand have the best and either the 2nd or 3rd best team in MLB in their division.
Even if the ‘average opponent’ comes out relatively equivalent, how that strength is distributed can have an impact on how much it impacts the team’s final record.
You don’t see this a ton because it’s not super common to have 2 teams that are that strong in the same division, and the NL Central is an extreme alternative because many systems project none of those teams to be much better than .500, but if you look back at the many years of joint Yankee/Red Sox greatness you’ll find that the worst record in the AL is frequently in the AL East, even when there are similarly-bad teams in the other divisions. The Rockies are gonna play like 38 games this season where their odds of winning at first pitch are like 25-30%. The Pirates willl probably play like 10 such games.
I am absolutely taking the over on 77 wins for STL and 75 wins for CHC.
It was a bit surprising as a Cardinals fan, but I’ve had a pessimistic track of thinking about 2021 that this system seems to agree with. The team could have zero production in LF and RF, depending on Carlson’s MLB readiness and O’Neill’s inability to hit offspeed pitches. If Arenado and Edman’s 2020 offense is indicative of future production, this could be a dreadful lineup. If Carpenter is toast, then the bench is terrible, and there’s no quality depth anywhere in the minors. The rotation could be significantly hampered by injuries to Mikolas and Kim and by giving meaningful innings to Martinez and Gant. The depth behind them is all 5th-starter/long reliever types (not valuable).
All of that said, I was thinking 78-81 wins, which I guess means I agree with you. 76 is a totally reasonable projection, though.
I share some of your concerns about the offense—the outfield still looks to be somewhere between putrid and bad, but… no way is this team winning 76 games. Arenado’s power will rebound, DeJong still has upside, Goldschmidt is still solid, and Edman can be better, too. Also, don’t sleep on Lane Thomas and/or a mid-season acquisition. On the run-prevention side, the infield defense could be elite, and the outfield defense should be very, very good. Martinez struggled after getting COVID last year, so just toss it out. He could return to form, Kim was excellent last year and will be back in the rotation after a week or two, and the bullpen will probably be excellent again, too. There are a lot of ifs and coulds and shoulds, but I still expect them to win more than 90 games in this division.
The A’s are projected to be sub-.500. Seems strange to me.
I can see it. Semien, Hendriks, LaStella and Grossman were all much better than Tom, Andrus, Kemp and Rosenthal are likely to be. There’s probably no improvement anywhere. Angels and Astros are better. The projection may be pessimistic but it’s not that strange
Great work! Will your projections be updated prior to opening day? If not when was the last time they were updated?
Will you be publishing “projected rest of season” and “projected full season” standings using ATC, similar to what is already in place using Depth Charts?