August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 10/11/16

august fagerstrom: yo!

august fagerstrom: ran a little late writing and therefore a little late getting this up, so I’ll let the queue fill up for another 5 minutes or so and we’ll get underway

august fagerstrom: in the meantime, revisit Tame Impala’s Currents with me

august fagerstrom: ok, let’s chat!

Bork: Hello, friend!

august fagerstrom: hi, Bork!

Bork: Cleveland vs Toronto 2.0, no Lebron edition.

august fagerstrom: someone ask Mike Petriello whether LeBron is playoff-eligible

Gary: I missed the game yesterday! Tell me it wasn’t as exciting as it looked.

august fagerstrom: sorry

The Lure of the Animal: Would you advocate a bullpen game for the Giants with Moore on the bump?

august fagerstrom: He should have a short leash, as any starter should in the postseason, particularly in an elimination scenario

august fagerstrom: Complicating things is the nature of the Giants bullpen, but Moore still shouldn’t be facing the top of the Cubs order a third time

Erik: The talk around the time of the Chapman trade was that since the Cubs had basically already qualified for the playoffs, the entirety of his value would be provided in the postseason. Given that he gave the Cubs a -.458 WPA last night, is it basically impossible for the trade to be a win for the Cubs at this point? Certainly if he blows one more game, the trade is a loss, right?

august fagerstrom: The real loss is probably evaluating trades in hindsight based on results

Johnny Coconuts: The reason the Red Sox lost was Cleveland outplaying them, but was keeping Bogaerts out of that 2-hole a mistake?

august fagerstrom: Holt batting second was weird, but Bogaerts wouldn’t be my second choice. Farrell said it was to break up the righties at the top, because the postseason is more matchup-oriented. If that’s the case, why not bat Benintendi second?

Dan: Which is more frustrating: EYBS or the presidential election?

august fagerstrom: the one that matters, by far

Monsignor Martinez: Cody Allen nearly gave me a heart attack last night.

august fagerstrom: Game-leader in WPA!

JMaddonGlasses>HCarayGlasses: Late game was late. In light of your Chapman article the other day, what are your thoughts on the Cubs’ late bullpen failure and blown save being followed by 4+ fairly solid innings from Montgomery for the eventual loss?

august fagerstrom: Chapman threw a really bad pitch to Gillaspie. Point of my piece on Monday was to show that even Chapman’s bad pitches are almost impossible to hit. Gillaspie did the almost-impossible. Kudos to him

august fagerstrom: Heck of an effort by the Cubs even after the meltdown. That was probably the most enjoyable game of the year

beisbol: Would Cleveland start Kluber 3 times in the ALCS? It would be twice on 3 days rest…

august fagerstrom: Doubtful. I think they feel perfectly confident in the Tomlin for 4, Miller and Allen for 4 strategy

Minty: Do you expect Benintendi to develop much power, or do you foresee something along the lines of Yelich, good D/OBP, but not much power or speed?

august fagerstrom: He got the ball in the air in a limited sample this year

august fagerstrom: Not hard at all to see him bulking up and hitting for power. He’s got a fantastic swing

Bill: Did you stay up to watch the game?

august fagerstrom: I tried, and then fell asleep sometime in the 12th inning and had to go back and watch the rest when I woke up

august fagerstrom: It was almost 3 AM here

Steve: Who has the better starting rotation at this point: Cleveland or Toronto?

august fagerstrom: Toronto

Steve: Would Ortiz receive the same send-off if he didn’t play for the Red Sox?

august fagerstrom: This is a good question

august fagerstrom: I liked this tweet: https://twitter.com/MattB_WOF/status/785668279415238656

august fagerstrom: Jim Thome had a better regular season career than Ortiz across the board and didn’t receive nearly the sort of fanfare. But that’s also missing Ortiz’s postseason heroics, him doing *so much* to bring Boston its first championship in 80, playing out the final 14 years of his career in the same city, his personality, etc.

august fagerstrom: Papi’s career is definitely a bit, overblown is a harsh word, but it’s certainly inflated by the market. No question. That’s also not to say he’s not deserving of all the praise he received this year. Dude is a legend

Jaack: With the exception of the Giants, none of the remaining teams have won a World Series in the past 20 years and three of them haven’t won in over sixty. It’ll be some real Old Testament baseball gods shit when the Giants win, right?

august fagerstrom: I hate to root for/against any outcome, but man would it be a buzzkill to see the Giants back in the WS given all the exciting, fresh options that still exist as possibilities

august fagerstrom: Then again, the Giants are, in a way, exciting on their own, just because of how ridiculous the story would become if they got back

JT: SHAPIRO BOWL 2016

august fagerstrom: This is a pretty cool and underrated part of the Indians-Blue Jays ALCS

2-D: If Salazar can go in the ALCS do you think he jumps up into Shaw’s role?

august fagerstrom: Depends entirely on how good they think his arm feels

august fagerstrom: I sort of doubt it. If he’s on the roster he’d strike me as more of a bridge guy between the starters and back end of the pen if necessary

august fagerstrom: But if they think his arm is close to full strength, just not with the durability to be stretched back out to start, then that changes thing

Tim: So I’ve forever found it incredible that pitchers usually get a free strike in a 3-0 count, and have been wondering if there’s some sort of strategy to employ around that. I’m thinking a guy throws junk to get to 3-0 (and if he gets someone to chase then all the better), then takes his free strike down the pipe. At that point he just needs two (admittedly great) pitches, and on the first one he could take advantage of a batter who’s probably over-swinging. Obviously a huge margin for error here, and it’d require a dude with stellar control for those 3-1 and 3-2 counts, but do you think there’s anything to employing this in certain scenarios?

august fagerstrom: No, it’s shockingly difficult to just put the ball over the plate

Tim: Also, does it annoy you when a broadcaster says a pitcher “evens the count at 2-2”? That’s not really even, right?

august fagerstrom: I guess technically you’re right, but it’s inconsequential enough for me to have never even thought of it

Matt: On a scale of Crippling Depression to Elated, how happy are you that the Cubs did not sweep? Living in Chicago and being an out-of-towner, I’m kinda pumped. These fans got big heads real quick.

august fagerstrom: I’m just happy to have seen (the first 12 innings of) an incredible baseball game

Momus: So Toronto and Cleveland – one of them will be representing the AL in the World Series. That’s pretty cool either way. Who’s your pick?

august fagerstrom: Toronto I think pretty clearly has the better team. But so did the Red Sox! That’s the thing about playoff baseball

Dan: Please calm my nerves. –Cubs fan

august fagerstrom: The Cubs are up 2-1 and have the best team in baseball

Tess of the D’Arnouds: Just a reminder that while David Ortiz was very good (140 wRC+, 50.5 fWAR, 55.4 bWAR), Edgar Martinez was better (147 wRC+, 65.5 fWAR, 68.3 bWAR).

august fagerstrom: necessary reminder

august fagerstrom: not to shit on Ortiz but to highlight how freaking good Edgar was

Minty: Since they have to win twice, what’re your thought on Kershaw on short rest over Urias+ today and Kershaw in 5?

august fagerstrom: I’m not huge on pitching guys on short rest, particularly when the other option is a pitcher as good as Urias

august fagerstrom: I think it’s one thing with the Indians, whose alternative is someone like Mike Clevinger or Cody Anderson

august fagerstrom: Urias is another story

august fagerstrom: Then again, so is Clayton Kershaw

august fagerstrom: IDK. From where I’m sitting, I probably start Urias, but it’s also hard for me to argue with the guys who have literally more relevant information on Kershaw and Urias than anyone else in the world

The Lure of the Animal: Given the state of the Indians’ rotation, how do you expect Tito to use Miller in a 7-game series?

august fagerstrom: The same way he did in a 5-game series

august fagerstrom: Whatever is necessary to win the game being played

Jordan: Would Toronto still have the better starting pitching if everyone in Clevelands rotation was healthy?

august fagerstrom: No

Erik: Do the Indians or Blue Jays look like World Series winning teams? Obviously, upsets are common in the playoffs, but do they look as good as your typical World Series winner?

august fagerstrom: Blue Jays have a “legitimate World Series” roster, whatever that means, in my opinion. Indians as currently constructed look no worse than the last two WS winners

Jordan: August; what is your position on steroids/HOF, level playing field and all of that? Personally I loved the steroid Era, all those HR’s, it got me back into baseball, Sosa and Mcgwire, watching Bonds turn into something even more out of this world. Basically I couldn’t care less, this isn’t amature or Olympic baseball, this is professional.

august fagerstrom: I couldn’t give a shit less. For one, we have no way to say definitively say who was or wasn’t using, so it’s irresponsible to play judge jury and executioner subjectively without any evidence. Two, the guys who were juicing were playing against other juicers, so their accomplishments honestly aren’t much diminished in my mind. Third, and most importantly to me but also most subjectively, I view the Hall of Fame as a historical museum more than anything else, and what happened during the steroid era cannot be erased by the history books. That’s the baseball of my childhood, and what upsets me the most is the thought of taking a potential child of mine to the Hall of Fame one day and not being able to show him the plaques of guys like McGwire and Bonds and share with them the baseball experiences of my childhood that helped me fall in love with the sport that turned into my career

CamdenWarehouse: 2004 is kinda lost on me, but it seems like a lot of people give the championship credit to Ortiz even though Ramirez may have been more valuable to them.

august fagerstrom: 2014 postseason

Ortiz: 222 wRC+, +1.98 WPA
Ramirez: 141 wRC+, +0.49 WPA

E: do you think Ortiz follows through and stays retired?

august fagerstrom: Would be real tough to pull a takeback after a year’s worth of gift baskets and retirement tour-celebrations

Priceless: Can we conclude that David Price just doesn’t have what it takes to be successful in the postseason?

august fagerstrom: Price, career, regular season: 23 K%, 6 BB%, 44 GB%
Price, career, postseason: 22 K%, 5 BB%, 46 GB%

august fagerstrom: no, we cannot conclude that at all. David Price is David Price, which is one of the best pitchers in the world, no matter when he is pitching

Erix: Everyone knows it’s really the Jordan Bastian Bowl

august fagerstrom: This is a good point.

Geust: The Cubs “have the best team in baseball”? Don’t have such a big head, august.

august fagerstrom: literally have no idea what this means

Jordan: Who do you think has the most obnoxious fans? As a rational jays fan I’m starting understand that with all the beer can throwing and large Internet presence we are starting to move up the obnoxious fans latter but I still think Giants fans and to a lesser extent O’s fans are the worst

august fagerstrom: I don’t think any fanbase is characteristically more obnoxious than another. That’s painting with a pretty broad brush. From the perspective of a FanGraphs writer, the most obnoxious fanbase is whichever one is most outperforming their projections in that given season

august fagerstrom: They seem to somehow feel personally slighted by the authors or the website, when the authors/website are just relaying the information provided to them by math and computes. What they’re actually feeling personally slighted by is an emotionless algorithm, which is a bizarre stance to take

Guest: Does Heyward make that play off the Gillaspie hit, or was that simply unreachable?

august fagerstrom: Can’t expect anyone to catch that ball

Eric: Since the Dodgers need two wins, what’s the difference if Kershaw starts game 4 or 5? They need another starter either way. Might as well hold him back and pitch him on full rest.

august fagerstrom: there’s this, too

BumMad: True or false: the late-inning heroics of the Giants’ offense saved last night from tarnishing Bumgardner’s legendary playoff rep.

august fagerstrom: In some ways, Bumgarner’s legend is already cemented

august fagerstrom: There’s no tarnishing what he did in 2014

august fagerstrom: But either way, no, it’ll take a lot more than one mediocre start to tarnish whatever bit of his legacy is even possible to be tarnished

Person: Could it be an arguement that jose ramirez is cle mvp througout the season. Fills in and all he did was hit, play good defense, and steal.

august fagerstrom: Depending on how much you care about context and timing, yeah, you could probably make that argument

Bork: “legitimate World Series” roster just means there’s a lot of OH I KNOW THAT NAME HE’S GOOD players that the majority of fans of heard of mixed with a bunch of OH WOW I DIDN’T KNOW THAT GUY EXISTED HE’S GOOD players.

august fagerstrom: no, it means they have a really good roster

august fagerstrom: which I guess is kind of what your comment implied?

Philadelphia Collins: Favourite Tame Impala album?

august fagerstrom: Lonerism>Currents>Innerspeaker, but they’re all pretty incredible

Alex: Could you see my Red Sox making a run at Matt Kemp to replace Papi?

august fagerstrom: There are many more ways to improve the Red Sox than by adding Matt Kemp

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Ben: Re Ortiz in the 2014 playoffs — more to the point, Papi won ALCS Game 4 with a walk-off HR in the 12th, tied Game 5 with a HR in the 8th and won it in with a walk-off RBI in the 14th. Legendary moments.

jb: His HR rate and K% are what they are, would the perception (right or wrong) be any different about Josh Tomlin if he were left handed? People seem to “value” soft tossing lefties that pitch like Tomlin but because Tomlin is right handed, he seems to get less cred. I know Jamie Moyer’s changeup was good and he was more adept at keeping the ball in the yard, but does he get more love than Tomlin because he was left handed? Tomlin’s command has to be one of the higher grades in baseball.

august fagerstrom: This is actually a fantastic question

august fagerstrom: I’ve never thought about it that way, but yeah, I could totally see Tomlin being viewed in a different light were he left-handed

august fagerstrom: It’s also possible that the perception of him doesn’t differ much from the reality. After all, we’re talking about a guy with a 103 ERA- since getting healthy again in 2014

Bork: I know what it means, I just meant to most baseball commentators who use the term “legitimate World Series roster”

august fagerstrom: Gotcha

Ricky: True or False, Cleveland will live or die with Miller.

august fagerstrom: Baseball teams don’t ever live or die with one player, but yeah, Miller’s probably the most important player on the Indians

Matt: EE will replace Papi. Seems Soxian, no?

august fagerstrom: IDK, a part of me thinks the Red Sox might be looking forward to not being hamstrung by having two full-time 1B/DH types on their roster anymore

august fagerstrom: Just because one DH leaves doesn’t mean you have to go get another

August’s Baseball Dungeon: As a Red Sox fan, I know for a fact Papi did no such thing in the 2014 playoffs.

august fagerstrom: whoops! both myself and a commenter made the same typo

Jeremy: What research or knowledge do you have about teams with long breaks between series vs teams coming off a quick turn around? Is there a relationship or do talking heads just make after the fact analysis regarding momentum vs rest

august fagerstrom: I’d guess there’s nothing to it, but don’t have any definitive studies to link to off-hand

August’s Baseball Dungeon: Can the fact that left handed hitters perform worse against same handed pitchers than right handed hitters be attributed to relative rarity of left handed pitching?

august fagerstrom: I think so, yeah

Sonny: Tito managed every game like the play-in, never taking a win for granted in a short series. He’s a good manager.

august fagerstrom: Agreed. He has been fantastic

august fagerstrom: Managing only and always to win the game in front of you in the postseason doesn’t seem like it should be a bold strategy

August’s Baseball Dungeon: Would a hypothetical individual with an arm in the center of their body have any platoon splits?

august fagerstrom: Unless his delivery is literally straight over the top, yeah, because his pitches will have to break one way or the other

august fagerstrom: Does he throw a slider? If so, which way does it break? That answers your platoon-split question

august fagerstrom: alright, on that note, I’m gonna end this

august fagerstrom: gonna be hard to top the arm-in-the-center-of-the-body-pitcher question

august fagerstrom: thanks for chatting guys, enjoy more playoff baseball!

august fagerstrom: talk to you all a week from an hour ago