August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat – 10/20/15

11:39
August Fagerstrom: hello, and welcome to August chat round 2

11:40
August Fagerstrom: start getting those questions in and i’ll be back around noon to begin conversing

11:42
August Fagerstrom: couple refreshers from last week, as I search to get a feel for how these chats go: yes, I’ve seen the Conan O’Brien sketch. no, I’m not too keen on answering fantasy questions. yes, I will gladly answer non-baseball questions, though that part is totally up to you guys.

11:43
:

12:01
August Fagerstrom: ok!

12:01
August Fagerstrom: you guys sure you don’t just want to look at that picture of Johnny Cueto’s face for the next hour?

12:01
Comment From The Dude
Wait, you have a chat now? AWESOME!!

12:01
Comment From Guest
Since when do you have a chat?

12:01
August Fagerstrom: Since last Tuesday! And all the rest of the Tuesdays

12:02
Comment From Hank
Any chance Cueto has hurt his stock enough to take a pillow contract this year to rebuild value?

12:03
August Fagerstrom: No, no, it’s not that drastic. I saw someone else suggest this on Twitter last night. He’s hurt his value a bit, sure, but he’s still Johnny Cueto.

12:03
Comment From Bill Haywood
The wind is blowing out today at Wrigley. Are you aware of any studies done on how wind direction/strength affects certain pitch types? I would guess it’s too small to notice, but could the wind blowing at the pitcher take a tick of velocity off, or make a changeup dance in the wind more?

12:04
August Fagerstrom: The effect on the actual pitches themselves seems minimal. I asked Josh Tomlin about this after a particularly windy day at Progressive Field this season and he said the only thing he’s never noticed is that if the wind is blowing in (from a pitcher’s back) it will flatten out his changeup a bit.

12:05
August Fagerstrom: Not sure if the data backs that, but that’s what I’ve got. I know pitchers have a hard time getting movement on breaking pitches at Coors, too, but that’s a different story I suppose.

12:05
Comment From The Dude
Is there a lynch mob waiting for Cueto in Kansas CIty?

12:05
August Fagerstrom: goodness, i hope not

12:05
Comment From The Dude
As a Cubs fan, please tell me something encouraging for tonight’s game!

12:06
August Fagerstrom: you’ve got a really, really good team, and sometimes the phillies beat the best teams in baseball this year

12:06
Comment From Catoblepas
Rate the postseason thus far!

12:07
August Fagerstrom: i wouldn’t hesitate to slap a 65+ PV on it

12:07
August Fagerstrom: still don’t think we’ve had a walkoff? unless i’m misremembering. that’s all we’re missing, really.

12:07
Comment From FireDrayton
Sounds like Rasmus won’t be getting a QO from the Astros. Do you agree with that decision from Houston’s standpoint? What kind of contract do you think he gets as a FA?

12:08
August Fagerstrom: really? that seems surprising.

12:09
August Fagerstrom: i’m admittedly terrible at predicting contracts/destinations, but it feels like Rasmus should get something like the QO AAV for 4-ish years, right? 4/60?

12:09
Comment From The Dude
Arrieta has now thrown 92 more innings that last season. Is he running into issues with that?

12:10
August Fagerstrom: could be. Cubs writers always insist he’s, like, the most fit human ever. then again, being physically fit doesn’t always equate to an arm holding up over the course of 7 months

12:10
Comment From Jim
At what point in a playoff game is it better to concede and put in position players to pitch? There has to be a tipping point where it’s better to give up and not burn your arms, right? Then again, when it was 9-2 in the fourth inning I thought they should and then the Royals only lost by three.

12:11
August Fagerstrom: probably never. throwing in the towel on a postseason game isn’t a good look, and every team has a Medlen or Hochevar in the back of their bullpen for situations like that

12:12
August Fagerstrom: i mean, sure, maybe 17-0 in the 7th you could toss a backup infielder out there. Royals were far from that scenario last night, though, as the 9th inning showed

12:12
Comment From Bork
Will Goins ever be anything more than a backup infielder? Dude has a golden glove caliber defense and very meh offense. And with Travis/Tulo locked up for a while unless he’s moved he’ll be stuck as the backup.

12:13
August Fagerstrom: probably not, but he’s pretty valuable as a backup infielder. the bat just isn’t going to play as a starter. hell, it barely played this year and that was with really surprising plate disciple/somewhat surprising power

12:13
Comment From MSW
I’m curious as to what the 2016 Mets will look like. I think Murphy will get a QO and sign somewhere else (probably the Yankees), and Cespedes will be gone as well. Do you think the franchise has turned a financial corner and has the wherewithal to sign somebody like Zobrist to fill the gap?

12:14
August Fagerstrom: They could lose Murphy and it wouldn’t hurt much/he’d be easily replaceable, despite what this postseason has shown. As for Cespedes, they’ll either re-sign him or someone like him. They’ve now seen what this team can look like with an impact bat like his, they’re not gonna let him walk and then not fill that void.

12:14
Comment From Lars
What are the best/worst/most realistic case scenarios for Zunino next year? I guess the worst is a repeat of this year’s performance.

12:14
August Fagerstrom: worst case: this year, best case: last year?

12:15
August Fagerstrom: i know his .199 average last year wasn’t pretty, but the overall package was within range of a league-average hitter, and a 90 wRC+ paired with his framing abilities is a decent piece

12:15
August Fagerstrom: his plate discipline just seems like it’s SO far from being fixable that the ceiling looks very limited.

12:15
Comment From The Dude
Did you know that if you flip last night’s win probability graph upside down, you get the projected value of Johnny Cueto’s contract this offseason? http://www.fangraphs.com/wi…

12:15
August Fagerstrom: fantastic

12:15
Comment From Derek
I have a completely made up rumor that Keith Law is in the running for the Phillies GM job. Any truth to my made up rumor?

12:16
August Fagerstrom: Would love to see this happen from a pure curiosity standpoint. I have no doubts that Keith could do the job, but if I’m not mistaken he’s turned down high-ranking front office roles in the past for time/family reasons

12:16
Comment From Sam
How much in career earnings has Daniel Murphy gained due to this postseason performance?

12:17
August Fagerstrom: a million? less? I think people tend to overrate what a good/bad postseason will do for an impending free agent’s value. front offices are well aware of sample size limitations.

12:18
Comment From Bork
Can you keep posting that pic of Cueto’s face randomly for the next hour? Thanks much appreciated.

12:18
:

12:19
Comment From Scott
Who will be the Pirates next reclamation project? Would it not be sweet to see that person be Tim Lincecum? All signs point towards Lato though, as he showed theres promise for a bounce back season.

12:20
August Fagerstrom: I’d love to see someone revive Lincecum’s career, but Pitt doesn’t feel like the right place

12:20
Comment From The Dude
Belated congrats on being bumped up to chat status!

12:20
Comment From Derek
August, if you were to compare your chat skills with the skills of a major league player in the playoffs, who would it be?

12:20
August Fagerstrom: oh god. i’ll let you guys decide this

12:21
Comment From Bork
Why are the Halloween packs of Nibs so hard to open GOD DAMNIT

12:21
August Fagerstrom: what the hell are nibs

12:21
Comment From Derek
Which is faster: Jose Molina’s time from first to third base or your chatting speed?

12:21
August Fagerstrom: does this mean i’m a slow chatter?! oh no

12:21
Comment From Pirates Gatorade Cooler
What young core would you rather have: Mets (Harvey,Thor,DeGrom,Matz,Wheeler,Conforto), or Cubs (Rizzo,Bryant,Schwarbs,Russell,Soler,Baez)?

12:22
August Fagerstrom: probably go with the bats to be safe

12:22
Comment From Tom
I get that Arrieta is fit, but what does yoga, pilates and a great diet really have to do with your shoulder and UCL? I’ve never really understood how being in good shape would prevent your arm from wearing down from pitching, which is bad for your arm…

12:23
August Fagerstrom: right, i tend to agree with this. pitchers get fatigued in areas other than the arm, so it helps in that regard, but being in good shape doesn’t automatically mean your arm can’t wear down

12:24
August Fagerstrom: though i suppose the argument could be made that arm injuries can occur from fatigue in other areas of the body, leading to compensation in another area that affects the mechanics/arm

12:24
August Fagerstrom: so if you’re in peak shape from top to bottom, you can better withstand fatigue and maintain your mechanics, therefore protecting your arm?

12:24
Comment From Pirates Gatorade Cooler
Should the Cubs trade from their young hitting for more pitching?

12:25
August Fagerstrom: i’m not sure the Cubs need to do anything drastic. Arrieta/Lester at the top is pretty good, y’know

12:25
Comment From bill
My girlfriend asked why they keep showing the really excited small asian guy on the blue jays bench after every good blue jays play…

12:25
August Fagerstrom: https://twitter.com/AugustF…

12:26
Comment From Q-Ball
As a Cubs fan, I feel like even if the Cubs lost to the Mets, it was a good season, since we are building for a long run and frankly didn’t expect to contend yet. We are playing with house money. Valid?

12:26
August Fagerstrom: i’ve said this before, i think fans of any team that makes the playoffs (even the WC game!) should be pretty pleased with their season

12:26
August Fagerstrom: if you get to watch your team play more than 162 games that count, that’s a good year in my book

12:26
Comment From Bork
From a pure curiosity standpoint I’d like to see Kiley reach GM level then hire all Fangraphs staff for his front office.

12:26
August Fagerstrom: me too

12:27
Comment From Jack Glasscocks Cup
chances the Tribe’s starting outfield is Brantley, Naquin, Zimmer in June 2016? How about Brantley, Almonte, Zimmer?

12:27
August Fagerstrom: 2% and 3%

12:28
Comment From Jack Glasscocks Cup
If Ramirez can keep hitting like he did after his recall, would it be wise to move Kipnis to RF?

12:28
August Fagerstrom: no, probably not

12:28
Comment From L. Scott
I think you are most like Michael Conforto, a solid rookie performance but flying under the radar, for now.

12:29
August Fagerstrom: hey at least i’m better than Michael Cuddyer

12:29
Comment From Q-Ball
What do you think of Schwarber’s defense in LF? Decent? Passable? Bad? He doesn’t have to be gold glove if he keeps hitting the ball 450 ft……

12:30
August Fagerstrom: i’ve thought he’s looked surprisingly decent! his routes aren’t the greatest but i think he’s a better athlete than people give him credit for.

12:31
August Fagerstrom: he also didn’t have to play any tough left fields in the postseason. would have been really interesting seeing the Cubs play the Pirates in a full series, because I’m not sure Schwarber vs. PNC’s left field is the greatest matchup.

12:31
Comment From Bork
All teams should have a designated excited bench player. NBA has already championed this.

12:31
August Fagerstrom: clone Scalabrine and put him on every professional sports team ever

12:32
Comment From bill
Adore guys with great power who don’t strike out and can draw walks (edwin, rizoz, joeybats, ortiz, rizz) Can you think of anyone who may be joining this elite club in years to come?

12:32
August Fagerstrom: a J.D. Martinez with fewer strikeouts could be really fun

12:32
Comment From groucho
what can we expect from brandon moss going forward?

12:32
August Fagerstrom: what you’ve seen out of Brandon Moss for the last 3 years

12:33
Comment From Q-Ball
The Pirates had a masterful offseason last year. Can they repeat that performance on a limited budget? They have holes in the rotation and at 1B, unless you love Pedro….

12:33
August Fagerstrom: seems like they’ve had a few offseasons like that in a row now, so i see no reason why they can’t do it again. especially with arms

12:34
Comment From bill
Daniel Murhpys O-contact% is 82.7% while Kris Bryant’s is 43.8%. Baseball?

12:34
August Fagerstrom: those players are attempting to do very different things when they swing the bat

12:34
Comment From Tom
Who is the guy on the Cubs bench who wears a helmet with zombie hands on it all game?!

12:35
August Fagerstrom: jonathan herrera!

12:35
Comment From Tom
Ah thanks. That helps answer your previous question. You are the Jonathan herrera of the fangraphs chats!

12:35
August Fagerstrom: shit

12:35
Comment From MSW
Sigh, all this talk of Munenori really makes me miss Juan Uribe. Glad the Mets have been able to overcome the loss of their best excited bench player.

12:36
August Fagerstrom: Juan Uribe is a treasure. my favorite thing about him is that he said he needs to get another Major League contract so he can buy more cars.

12:36
August Fagerstrom: also, he hates the NFL, so that’s a plus

12:36
Comment From PIrates Gatorade Cooler
Predict the Jason Heyward contract, and landing place.

12:36
August Fagerstrom: $200+ million, Yankees?

12:37
August Fagerstrom: Think the Cardinals will still make a big push to retain him, too

12:37
Comment From johnny5alive
also look up hogshow regarding uribe… seriously, do it

12:37
August Fagerstrom: this sounds scary

12:38
Comment From Mike
Chris Davis to Angels? Lefty bat desperately needed

12:39
August Fagerstrom: Angels are in such an interesting spot, because they obviously need to capitalize on Trout’s prime, but they’ve got little in the way of trade chips or impending prospect arrivals, and their recent free agent acquisitions have been big misses.

12:39
August Fagerstrom: They’ll be spenders in free agency, I’d imagine, but another 1B/DH doesn’t seem like the best fit

12:39
August Fagerstrom: Rotation might be a bigger point of focus

12:39
Comment From PIrates Gatorade Cooler
Why can’t everyone admit when it’s mostly about the money? Because it usually is, isn’t it?

12:40
August Fagerstrom: because it doesn’t look good, and players would like to keep the fans/media on their side, to some extent. but, yeah, it’s about the money.

12:40
Comment From Area 5-year old
If the Cardinals are already eliminated and the Giants didn’t make the postseason, do the rules allow for the NL to still send a team to the World Series?

12:40
August Fagerstrom: have to check with the league office on this. good Q

12:41
Comment From PIrates Gatorade Cooler
Seems like the Cubs aren’t going to re-sign Dexter Fowler. Where do you see him being a fit, assuming he gets a 4/45-ish kind of deal?

12:41
August Fagerstrom: yeah, I doubt Fowler returns to the Cubs, but I think that’s mostly because he’ll get more than what you’ve predicted

12:42
August Fagerstrom: he’s still only 29! and is a switch-hitter who can play center field! that’s a pretty valuable piece

12:42
Comment From A cat
The best $100 MM the Red Sox could spend this odd season would be to subsidize Hanley and Panda out of town. With an average be and replacement level play at info corners, Sox make the wc. Unless Papi falls apart a young roster should improve, and SP came around post ASB.

12:43
August Fagerstrom: Panda feels like a strong bounceback candidate to me. I don’t think that contract is necessarily a disaster yet. They need to get Hanley off that team any way they can, though.

12:43
August Fagerstrom: He’s got nowhere to play!

12:43
August Fagerstrom: Which is the same problem they had last year when they knowingly signed him!

12:43
Comment From Tom
Yasiel Puig will be the starting Right Fielder for _______ next year

12:43
August Fagerstrom: *gulp*

12:44
August Fagerstrom: is it a homer pick if I say Cleveland Indians?

12:44
August Fagerstrom: I don’t think it’s going to be in Los Angeles

12:44
Comment From Mike
So, should the Dodgers should have traded for Hamels or Price, right???

12:45
August Fagerstrom: I don’t think so

12:45
August Fagerstrom: Seem like a diminishing return scenario there. Not having enough aces wasn’t the reason the Dodgers didn’t advance

12:46
Comment From Jack Glasscocks Cup
that puig in RF would be awesome for cleveland! Who would they have to give up?

12:46
August Fagerstrom: Carrasco or Salazar would have to be involved, certainly

12:47
Comment From Daniel
The Astros have said that they have the funds to get a premier FA. Gotta be a SP right? Any guesses on who they may target?

12:48
August Fagerstrom: yeah, supplementing Keuchel with another front-line starter seems like the most logical step. Jordan Zimmermann?

12:48
Comment From Jack Glasscocks Cup
Who has more trade value, Salazar or Yordano Ventura? Ventura’s younger and has the same amount of service time.

12:48
August Fagerstrom: Salazar is better

12:48
Comment From johnny5alive
what about harvey for puig? regardless of what happens in the postseason, i think the mets FO is sick of harvey, and they are definitely letting cespedes walk

12:48
August Fagerstrom: ooh this is fun. the most polarizing swap of players ever

12:49
Comment From A cat
Ozuna to Royals makes sense if Gordon leaves, which is likely..

12:49
August Fagerstrom: is it, though? my understanding is that there’s mutual interest in Gordon remaining a Royal for life. I could see him taking a hometown discount honestly

12:50
Comment From johnny5alive
deGrom has been killed by the cubs quite a bit, including 2 starts at wrigley… I know, i know, sss, but pitchers are human. any chance this has an impact on tonights game?

12:50
August Fagerstrom: if deGrom gets knocked around again, it’s not because he had two bad starts at Wrigley

12:50
August Fagerstrom: it’s because the Cubs have a really good lineup and sometimes pitchers miss their spots

12:50
Comment From Jordan
Chances (0-100) A Rod repeats 2015 season?

12:50
August Fagerstrom: 46

12:51
Comment From Rick
Do the Braves add any legit MLB pieces this offseason? They don’t seem inclined to enter the free agent market for bats, but now seems like the time to do it if they want to compete by 2017. Bats are much harder to find via trade.

12:52
August Fagerstrom: i don’t see it. they’re not going to be good next year, so why not have another year of evaluation to figure out where you need to plug the holes

12:52
Comment From Gary
Can Joey Gallo be Adam Dunn 2.0?

12:52
August Fagerstrom: i don’t see why not

12:52
Comment From Jack Glasscocks Cup
Fox can’t really think their baseball announcers are good, can they? Joe Buck needs a swirly.

12:54
August Fagerstrom: i often wonder about this. like, it’s not a secret that Harold Reynolds is universally loathed. does that make them regret their decision? or is the amount of attention he receives, whether it’s negative or not, make it a good thing? any publicity is good publicity type of thing?

12:55
August Fagerstrom: it’s also interesting that he’s in a position where you don’t really see people get let go due to lack of performance. you kind of have to leave voluntarily or do something to get fired (Which he’s already done once)

12:56
Comment From The Maddness
I thought we decided Joc Pederson was Adam Dunn 2.0, with speed.

12:56
August Fagerstrom: well that’s a whole different guy!

12:56
Comment From johnny5alive
why did kiley go to the braves? if he wouldnt work for the mets, i wish he was improving some team not in my division!

12:56
August Fagerstrom: if only you could have let him know before he took the offer…

12:57
Comment From Marcus Banks
Who the hell are you?

12:57
August Fagerstrom: a guy who is wrapping up this chat to go finish up writing his day’s post! thanks for coming everyone. same time same place next week

We hoped you liked reading August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat – 10/20/15 by August Fagerstrom!

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August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.

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