August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat – 11/10/15
| 12:03 |
: hello, fine people of the internet!
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| 12:03 |
: get your questions in and we’ll fire this thing up in about 15 minutes or so
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| 12:04 |
: let’s have a weekly soundtrack to the chat. this is something I did on Twitter for my daily commutes to the stadium during the season. i enjoy sharing music and having it shared, so what’s the harm
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| 12:05 |
: today’s chat soundtrack will be Beach House – Devotion
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| 12:08 |
:
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| 12:18 |
: here I am
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| 12:18 |
: I am here
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| 12:19 |
: before we begin, let’s have a brief moment of internet-chat silence for Tommy Hanson, who tragically passed away at the age of 29 last night. Thoughts to his family, who have now lost two boys under the age of 30 in recent years.
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| 12:20 |
: ok.
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| 12:20 |
Are you more worried about Carlos Martinez’ shoulder will allegedly be fine, or Syndergaard’s huge jump in innings? |
| 12:21 |
: I’m more worried about the guy who’s actually had recent injury concerns, rather than the guy for whom we’re anticipating possible injury concerns.
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| 12:21 |
Is Larry Walker being unfairly shafted for playing in Coors? His career looks HoF worthy to me. |
| 12:22 |
: I thiiiink he might be, yeah. I was actually kind of surprised myself looking at the numbers in Paul’s IG post yesterday. A career 140 wRC+ over nearly 20 seasons is amazing no matter how you slice it
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| 12:23 |
: Even then, he’s not necessarily a Hall of Fame lock in my eyes — if you’re a big hall guy you want him in (And I am, and do), but yeah, people might oversell the Coors effect a touch
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| 12:23 |
Buddos Band “Burnt Offering!” Amazing song and album. |
| 12:23 |
: Budos Band! I walked by their tent at Bonnaroo a few years back I do believe. Liked what I heard. I’ll check them out further
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| 12:23 |
2015 was the offseason of the fake Mookie Betts trade. Who gets fake traded the most in 2016? |
| 12:23 |
: Puig? Strasburg?
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| 12:24 |
: Except I think Puig actually does get traded soo Strasburg or maybe Harvey? Those are guys who will get fake-traded a ton but not actually moved
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| 12:24 |
Michael Brantley’s shoulder….what are we looking at in terms of missed time to start the season and potential for a down 2016? |
| 12:24 |
: Sounds like late April/early May is the most realistic return scenario
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| 12:24 |
: You’re always concerned about guys that miss ST and how long it takes them to get into mid-season form, or if they ever can
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| 12:25 |
: At the same time, Brantley played through injuries (back and shoulder) all season long this year and didn’t suffer any drop in production. He’s in really great shape and is an insanely hard worker. You could probably say that for a lot of guys, but he strikes me as someone that shouldn’t have too hard a time getting back into/staying in mid-season shape
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| 12:26 |
: Still, it’s certainly a concern for the Indians. They were already probably hoping to not have to start Abe Almonte in center field. Now they have to worry about not having to start Abe Almonte AND ______ (Jose Ramirez? Tyler Naquin?) in the outfield alongside him on Opening Day
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| 12:26 |
: Their need to add an everyday outfielder in the offseason just became a much bigger priority
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| 12:27 |
Over/under Kyle Schwarber 30 HR next season? |
| 12:28 |
: Gonna take the under. Figure he’s limited enough defensively/platoon-wise that he doesn’t rack up enough PA’s to do it
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| 12:28 |
: Certainly has it in him, though
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| 12:28 |
: Gonna say he finishes next year with 24
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| 12:28 |
: If he’s traded to an AL team in the offseason, I’ll sayyyyyyyyy 31
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| 12:28 |
How do the Giants consistently develop successful players who don’t get hyped up in prospect lists? |
| 12:29 |
: If this were an easily-answerable question, the Giants (and Cardinals) wouldn’t be the two teams known for it. Great player development systems
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| 12:30 |
We saw a number of really exciting, young pitchers break out this year. Chris Archer, Dallas Keuchel. Who do you think is on the verge of taking a big step forward in 2016? |
| 12:30 |
: Not sure how much of a breakout you’re looking for, but I like Luis Severino to potentially step into that spotlight next season.
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| 12:30 |
: Could be a homer pick and he’s already pretty high profile, but I think Danny Salazar is an ace in the making
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| 12:31 |
: Raisel Iglesias and Aaron Nola are nice choices to take a big step forward with a full season’s work, too
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| 12:31 |
Louis Armstrong or Ray Charles? |
| 12:31 |
: no offense to Louis, who’s great, but Ray Charles in a landslide. Ray is the man
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| 12:32 |
: Actually just heard “Unchain My Heart” playing in Starbucks about 30 minutes ago and was very pleased
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| 12:32 |
What do you think of Brad Miller and Dan Farquhar to The Rays? The Rays aren’t great at improving hitters, but they really seem to excel at getting RPs back into top form |
| 12:32 |
: Think that trade really just came down to both teams dealing from positions of depth for positions where depth was needed. Too good a fit not to get something done
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| 12:33 |
Star Wars? Star Trek? Or neither? |
| 12:34 |
: Huge Star Wars fan. Just re-watched them all with my best friend in the last couple weeks actually gearing up for the new one. Never been a Trekkie. Saw the Abrams film that came out a couple years ago and thought it wasmeh
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| 12:34 |
Enjoyed the piece on Simmons and D’Arnaud. Is there a way to quickly sort out how many times a hitter has been “robbed” by a fielder? If so, you could compile a list of “darkest histories”, even rank them. My guess is that it’s not possible wo a lot more labor than the results would justify, but if I’m wrong it would be a cool idea for a piece. I’d read it, anyway. |
| 12:35 |
: thanks! Had a blast writing that. As for your question, I have no real idea. I’d just realized that those two amazing Simmons plays both happened against d’Arnaud and the idea planted itself in my head. Everything else after that just worked out perfectly for telling the story
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| 12:35 |
: Would be tough to find another example that fits that well, I’d imagine
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| 12:35 |
In addition to organizational reports, which is a ton of work in itself, do you have anything else planned before the start of spring training? |
| 12:36 |
: that’s a better question for Dan Farnsworth! he’s the one doing the reports. I think he’ll begin chatting with you guys sometime in the somewhat-near future.
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| 12:36 |
: assuming you’re just referring to prospect coverage, that is. I’ll still be writing daily, and the schedule of the rest of the full-time staffers isn’t changing
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| 12:37 |
If you had an infeield of Lindor, Correa, C. Seager, and Russell where do you play them? |
| 12:37 |
: oh man
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| 12:37 |
: this is great
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| 12:37 |
: so, Lindor at short. they’re all likely plus defenders, but Lindor is a step about the rest
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| 12:37 |
: I’ll take….. Correa’s arm at third
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| 12:38 |
: Seager’s height at first
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| 12:38 |
: that leaves Russell to second base
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| 12:39 |
Do players get upset when they are extended the QO? I can’t believe a team would be thrilled to give up a draft pick and pay tens of millions of dollars for Marco Estrada.. |
| 12:39 |
: well for one, being told you’re worth $15 million is pretty nice. they also understand that this is a business. I’m sure they’d rather their market *not* be depreciated, but they get it.
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| 12:39 |
Is this the end of Dylan Bundy? |
| 12:39 |
: no, but the fact that the question is being asked says a lot
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| 12:40 |
: he’s still got time, but, man, he really needs a healthy season
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| 12:40 |
Two of the Mariners’ top prospects, Alex Jackson and DJ Peterson, are very much Jack Z guys (RH power without much defensively). Are these the kinds of guys that DiPoto might try to move in an effort to reshape the farm a bit more to his liking? |
| 12:40 |
: I think it’s a pretty fair bet that any time a new regime takes over (this probably applies to all sports/teams, really) anyone is fair game
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| 12:41 |
: FO’s tend to hold on to prospects too long sometimes because they have emotional attachments to them, and they also realize that the success of those prospects says something directly about their abilities
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| 12:42 |
: Dipoto didn’t choose any of these guys in his system. Doesn’t mean they’re all available, but any new GM would want to to start putting his own spin on things
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| 12:42 |
Does anyone want Swisher or Bourn, even if ATL covers most of the salary? |
| 12:42 |
: Bourn might have some value if a team were to cover most of his salary
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| 12:42 |
: Nobody wants Nick Swisher.
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| 12:42 |
do you like basketball |
| 12:43 |
: I do! I’m a big Cavs fan. Football, I used to care for, but have completely distanced myself from in the past few years. Never got into watching any other sports, although soccer is fun to play
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| 12:43 |
Would you support having more extreme/unusual ballparks in the league? Or do you prefer new ballparks to play neutral? |
| 12:43 |
: yes! I love unusual ballpark dimensions
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| 12:43 |
: it’s one of my favorite unique things about baseball
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| 12:44 |
: Obviously Polo Grounds and Ebbets Field cant happen again
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| 12:44 |
: but I really like things like the Crawford Boxes in Houston, short porch at Yankee Stadium, all of Fenway, etc.
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| 12:44 |
: also: Tal’s Hill forever
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| 12:45 |
which contract this offseason will be the biggest mistake? |
| 12:45 |
: hmmmmmm
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| 12:45 |
: Cueto? if you’ve gotta go with a big one
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| 12:46 |
: on a lesser scale, just looking at our crowdsourced numbers and picking the first name that seems too high, maybe Howie Kendrick
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| 12:47 |
: BABIP-reliant guy on the wrong side of 30 who dealt with injuries and saw his defensive value (potentially) plummet last season
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| 12:47 |
: 4/50+ might have me a bit nervous there
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| 12:47 |
chances Gregorious out-WARs Tulo again? |
| 12:47 |
: well, you’ve always got to mix in the injury factor for Tulo
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| 12:47 |
: soooooo…. 30%?
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| 12:47 |
: too high? 20%?
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| 12:48 |
Potential tribe moves that you can see happening over Winter? |
| 12:49 |
: I think Antonetti makes at least one significant trade. They’ve got a whole host of valuable, young, versatile players that are expendable. Any number of Ramirez, Perez, Chisenhall, Urshela, Bauer/Anderson/Tomlin guys could be packaged for an impact player, in addition to high-minors prospects like Naquin and Erik Gonzalez
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| 12:49 |
: Having depth is nice, but they can deal a couple of those guys and still have good depth. They need someone they can plug in there every day in the outfield or the corner infield
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| 12:50 |
I could see some A’s players getting fake traded a lot this off-season after Donaldson was last year. Thinking Sonny Gray (Sonny Gray for Puig will be most often mentioned). |
| 12:50 |
: Yeah, Sonny Gray has already been fake-dealt a ton. I’m not sure I see it.
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| 12:50 |
Do you think there’d be a larger market for sports management simulation video games if the user interfaces were more appealing? OOTP is basically a series of spreadsheets, for instance. |
| 12:50 |
: I’m completely obsessed with WhatIfSports’ Hardball Dynasty, so maybe I’m not the right guy to ask. They sold me pretty well
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| 12:51 |
: They did just revamp their interface to make it more appealing, so I guess they’re taking your advice
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| 12:51 |
: I think the more important thing might be marketing. WIS if partnered with FOX. Imagine if Hardball Dynasty was marketed during the WS at all? Could have had huge effects
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| 12:52 |
: instead, FanDuel and boner pills
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| 12:52 |
Is the amount posted for Park kind of ridiculous? He’s projected to be a DH and an emergency 1B option. Those aren’t exactly rare in the MLB, and there’s a lot of AAAA players that could be signed for less and have actual experience against MLB level pitchers. |
| 12:52 |
: I don’t think so. The reports I’ve read disagree with your DH assessment — I’ve actually heard he could be an average+ defender at 1B. And the bat should be way, way better than AAAA
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| 12:52 |
: Just because it’s double the posting fee for Kang last year doesn’t mean it’s high. It means Kang was a complete steal.
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| 12:53 |
Isn’t it about time I release a new album? |
| 12:53 |
: the last one was so good!!! But you’re Tom Waits, so you can (and will) do whatever you damn well please
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| 12:53 |
Justin Masterson a sneaky option for someone who needs a late inning reliever? |
| 12:54 |
: Could be. He was always a reliever being forced into a starter’s role. Just worried that injuries have set him too far back and rendered his already-poor mechanics unfixable
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| 12:54 |
are you a gamer? if yes, will play Fallout 4? |
| 12:55 |
: kind of. I used to be a huge gamer but not as much anymore. I mostly just play a game of MLB The Show or NBA2K here or there. That said, I have been eyeing Fallout pretty closely. Might have to make the plunge
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| 12:55 |
Carrasco really seems like the guy most coveted around baseball for teams who want to upgrade their SP via trade. Texas and Red Sox recently mentioned. Could they actually put together a package that would interest Cleveland? The Red Sox don’t seem willing to deal there young stars, but Texas writer recently said Gallo could be made available. Could you see Texas and Cleveland matching up? |
| 12:56 |
: Thing about Carrasco is, the Indians are only moving him if they feel like they’re absolutely fleecing the other team
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| 12:57 |
: Rangers depleted a lot of their high-end depth in the Hamels trade, so I’m not sure there’s a fit there beyond Gallo
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| 12:57 |
: Red Sox could happen. Cubs and Dodgers seem to line up well. But again, I think the Indians only pull the trigger on a move that the other team’s fanbase would likely hate
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| 12:57 |
Brian Cashman made some comments about how everyone is available but Andrew Millers name seemed to be one that was the guy that stuck out. Do you see Miller being moved especially with Betances there? |
| 12:58 |
: It’s definitely a position of strength, especially with Justin Wilson back there too
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| 12:58 |
: Yankees don’t strike me as big spenders in this market, I’ve thought that the trade route is more likely how they’ll make their big splash. It’s not gonna be Betances, so Miller becomes an obvious candidate
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| 12:59 |
Is Dan taking over the Tuesday slot of chatting? WILL WE BE LOSING AUGUST TUESDAY? |
| 12:59 |
: not sure about the days. I’ll be keeping a weekly slot, though, and Dan will be slotted in weekly eventually, too
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| 12:59 |
Speaking of shortstops, in 2017, are the real life rankings of them Correa -> JP Crawford -> Lindor -> Seager -> Russell? (p.s. I’m a Phillies homer) |
| 1:00 |
: I think it’s probably
Correa |
| 1:00 |
: they’re all really close though, honestly. any one could end up being No. 1 or 5 and it wouldn’t surprise me TBH
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| 1:00 |
Rumblings of the Astros being interested in Gordon. Thoughts on that fit and whether he’s the right use of $$$ for the Stros? |
| 1:01 |
: I think he’d be a great fit. I think the Astros make a big splash somewhere in FA, so it wouldn’t surprise me
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| 1:01 |
: I do wonder about getting the best defensive left fielder in baseball to play a tiny left field, though
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| 1:01 |
: Certainly not a drastic difference, but it could limit his potential value at home somewhat
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| 1:02 |
Speaking of QOs, does a new system get put in place after the next CBA? It’s hard to say the system is working if no one is accepting the offers, right? |
| 1:02 |
: yeah, something’s gonna give
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| 1:02 |
What kind of player will I be in 2016 and beyond? all star? |
| 1:02 |
: solid regular
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| 1:03 |
How would you rank: Severino, Matz, Syndergaard, Nola, Gray |
| 1:03 |
: Syndergaard
Gray Severino Matz/Nola |
| 1:03 |
: Sonny Gray, assuming. if it’s Jon Gray, then at the bottom
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| 1:03 |
Please tell me you don’t like me, August? I’m an abomination that doesn’t belong on an outfield wall. |
| 1:03 |
: love it!
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| 1:04 |
If (big if here) Tulo is healthy next year, is he a good choice for comeback player of the year? |
| 1:04 |
: I don’t think he’s started from a low enough point, is he? Had a decent year as it is, just not quite Tulo standards
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| 1:04 |
Am I crazy for thinking Wilmer Flores can be an average/slightly above average 2B that can hit 20 hr and hit .275? |
| 1:04 |
: that’s the upper bounds, but it’s not insane
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| 1:04 |
you’re Epstein, do you move soler or baez |
| 1:05 |
: can’t tell if this is a yes/no question or if I have to pick one
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| 1:05 |
: so I suppose my answer is: if it helps me get another frontline starter, yes, and I’d rather move Baez
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| 1:05 |
If Lebron tried to play baseball, would he be better or worse than MJ was? |
| 1:05 |
: oh man
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| 1:06 |
: worse?
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| 1:06 |
: MJ actually played growing up. Lebron was all basketball/football I believe
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| 1:06 |
Percent chance that Cleveland actually deals either Salazar or Carrasco this winter? |
| 1:07 |
: 19%
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| 1:07 |
Red sox should sign david price, then trade bogaerts and a prospect for harvey (and tejada?). PLease dave! |
| 1:07 |
: easy now
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| 1:07 |
Will anyone accept the qualifying offer this week? I think it would make sense for someone like Estrada to either accept the QO or accept a multi-year offer this week, opposed to possibly getting stuck in limbo for months |
| 1:07 |
: no. Kennedy could, I suppose, but no
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| 1:08 |
do you see the jays trading one of their big bats for pitching? |
| 1:08 |
: trading something for pitching
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| 1:08 |
: if “big bats” = Encarnacion Bautista or Donaldson, then no. Martin’s not going anywhere either
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| 1:08 |
Jose Quintana for Profar. Who says no? And, would that just be the White Sox filling one need while creating another? |
| 1:08 |
: the White Sox can get more than that for Quintana
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| 1:09 |
What kind of money would Eric Thames be looking at if he returned to the MLB? He’s got experience and is putting up monster numbers in the KBO. |
| 1:09 |
: he’d get a pillow contract first to prove he can do it
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| 1:09 |
Who signs Chris Davis? |
| 1:09 |
: I’ve liked the Astros for this all along
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| 1:10 |
Berrios, Snell, Urias, Giolito by July? |
| 1:10 |
: let’s say 2/4
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| 1:10 |
How do you improve the Padres? |
| 1:11 |
: trade Justin Upton at the deadline last year
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| 1:11 |
: sorry
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| 1:11 |
: probably deal Kimbrel. probably deal a starter. get at least one competent infielder and someone to play defense in the outfield. Keep Kemp (Because you have to) and Myers in the corners
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| 1:12 |
Do you believe the theory that MJ only played baseball because he was suspended from basketball for betting on games and he and the NBA didn’t want to make it public? |
| 1:12 |
: not really.
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| 1:13 |
: I can legitimately see him having become bored with basketball
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| 1:13 |
What could you see the White Sox doing this offseason? Is Heyward a pipe dream for them? |
| 1:13 |
: more than a pipe dream I’d say
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| 1:14 |
: think the Sox need to be creative on the trade market, rearranging some pieces and money to fill out their depth
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| 1:14 |
: the problem isn’t the star guys that carry them. they’ve got those. they need to not have black holes all over the place and three outfielders who combined for -30 defensive runs saved
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| 1:14 |
: Melky Cabrera needs to be a DH. in order for that to happen, Adam LaRoche needs to not be on the team
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| 1:15 |
Given how the Royals just won, I can’t see the Yankees letting either Betances or Miller go. |
| 1:15 |
: I don’t see it either, but like the Indians with Carrasco/Salazar or the Mets or Nationals or whoever, you need to be open to these things. If the Yankees can deal Miller and confidently think it improves their team, they’ll do it, and Miller is more expendable than Betances
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| 1:16 |
do you think kevin pillar had a fluke year and will eventually go back to being a fourth outfielder |
| 1:17 |
: the defense is legit. That’s enough for him to be a starting center fielder, especially on a team like the Jays. The hitting is just a bonus
|
| 1:17 |
: also
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| 1:17 |
: Pillar, 2015 wRC+: 93
Pillar, 2016 Steamer wRC+: 97 |
| 1:17 |
I think my team should trade 4 guys (spare part,wash-out,marginal prospect, and nobody) for (Impact Player). Who hangs up? |
| 1:17 |
: me, on all these absurd trade proposal submissions
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| 1:18 |
donaldson for puig and urias, who says no? |
| 1:18 |
: lol
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| 1:18 |
harder to fix: padres or white sox |
| 1:18 |
: Sox, I think. The players the Padres should probably move are mostly good players with flaws getting overpaid. The guys the White Sox need to move might not be good
|
| 1:19 |
: Ross/Quintana are both similar guys though that could really help fill things out for either club
|
| 1:19 |
: But then you’ve got guys like LaRoche/Melky/Danks bogging it down vs. Shields/Kimbrel who still have their value
|
| 1:20 |
Are you into Daily Fantasy at all? 91% of all prizes go to 1.3% of all players, per Bloomberg. |
| 1:20 |
: have never done this, don’t really even know how it works tbh
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| 1:21 |
: alright, I’ve got to go right about outfielders who threw 100 this year. you can read that post later today if that interests you!
|
| 1:21 |
: thanks for chatting guys. apologies to the questions I couldn’t get to. we’ll chat again next week.
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August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.
Not sure about the idea that the QO system isn’t working. Not having had anyone accept is bad because?? This comes down to being about selection bias. Teams have been very careful not to make QOs to players who will accept. They’ve only been extended to elite FAs in most of the cases and we’ve already seen a few cases of players who deeply regretted not accepting.
Moreover, we also know that these QOs have kept FA salaries down somewhat as the FA usually had to bear the brunt of the cost of that draft pick. So, I’d say it has worked pretty well doing almost exactly what it was designed to do.