Michael Brantley’s Shoulder in 2016

Michael Brantley hurt his shoulder in late September, diving for a ball in Minnesota. He took four games off, and then played two more times, and then called it quits, planning to spend the early offseason rehabbing the joint. He told MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian that he hoped to avoid surgery and that the team had developed a three-week plan for him.

Unfortunately, three weeks later, his shoulder still hurt. Another four weeks after that, the team decided to have surgery, which found a small labral tear. Team doctor James Quinlan thought that Brantley would be ready to start his hitting progression in four months, rehab would be complete in five months, and that the player would see the major leagues again in six months.

Six months from today is May 9th, so no matter what, Brantley looks set to miss a month next season. The question on many Indians’ fans minds is what he’ll be like when he returns.

Brantley did play a couple times after he was hurt. He swung like he was hurt — check out a swing in August (left) and in his last game of the year (right) on similar pitches. Both were foul balls, but watch his hands and follow through on the September swing.

The hands seem to separate earlier, and the swing doesn’t finish as far behind him, which makes sense since he had a hurt shoulder.

Hopefully, the surgery will get him right. Shoulder injuries haven’t been as bad as elbow, neck, wrist, and arm issues, as Jeff Zimmerman showed last year. But they still lead to a near 20-point drop in OPS, even given an age adjustment.

Past players with “shoulder tear” in their disabled list information have missed 80 days on average, but with this kind of injury, those numbers may not mean much. If you had the injury late in the year, the offseason could change your days missed total radically. Mark Ellis missed all of 2004 with a torn labrum. Sean Casey only missed 22 days because he tried to play through the season with a torn muscle near his labrum and only gave up in September.

Brantley is 28, and that has to count as good news. Eight players in our 26 player sample never played in the major leagues again after heading to the disabled list for a torn shoulder. But between the ages of 27 and 30, only Jeremy Giambi never played again after his DL stint, and he was more of a role player anyway.

Let’s look at the 27- to 30-year-old players who did play again after they suffered torn shoulders, and what they did in the next season.

Past Shoulder Tears, In Their Subsequent Seasons

Name	Injury Year	Age	Next Year PA	NY BA	NY OBP	NY SLG	NY wRC+	Career wRC+
Richie Sexson	2004	30	656	0.263	0.369	0.541	144	118
Matt Lawton	2002	30	429	0.249	0.343	0.420	106	107
Travis Lee	2004	29	441	0.272	0.331	0.426	101	94
Sean Casey	2002	28	629	0.291	0.350	0.408	97	109
Troy Glaus	2003	27	242	0.251	0.355	0.575	138	120
Mark Ellis	2004	27	486	0.316	0.384	0.477	135	93

NY = Next Year, or the year after injury

This is good news for Brantley, pretty much across the board. The only player who was worse than his career work the season after he got his shoulder fixed was Sean Casey, and he played the full season to almost league-average work.

The group played about 10% better in their healthy season than they did for their career, but that’s not something on which we can hang our hats. For one, it’s a tiny sample, and for another, these players are in their primes. Their numbers in those seasons should have been better than their career numbers.

This injury has ended careers, so it’s a day tinged with fear for the Brantley household. But all of the position players who saw their careers end from this injury were much older or much worse players.

A player as dynamic as Brantley, in his prime, should be mostly up to speed when he returns in 2016. Previous comps provide hope that he can return to the highlight reels again next year, just a few weeks later than the rest of baseball.