August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat – 11/10/15

12:03
August Fagerstrom: hello, fine people of the internet!

12:03
August Fagerstrom: get your questions in and we’ll fire this thing up in about 15 minutes or so

12:04
August Fagerstrom: let’s have a weekly soundtrack to the chat. this is something I did on Twitter for my daily commutes to the stadium during the season. i enjoy sharing music and having it shared, so what’s the harm

12:05
August Fagerstrom: today’s chat soundtrack will be Beach House – Devotion

12:08
August Fagerstrom:

12:18
August Fagerstrom: here I am

12:18
August Fagerstrom: I am here

12:19
August Fagerstrom: before we begin, let’s have a brief moment of internet-chat silence for Tommy Hanson, who tragically passed away at the age of 29 last night. Thoughts to his family, who have now lost two boys under the age of 30 in recent years.

12:20
August Fagerstrom: ok.

12:20
Comment From Minty
Are you more worried about Carlos Martinez’ shoulder will allegedly be fine, or Syndergaard’s huge jump in innings?

12:21
August Fagerstrom: I’m more worried about the guy who’s actually had recent injury concerns, rather than the guy for whom we’re anticipating possible injury concerns.

12:21
Comment From Julio Pepper
Is Larry Walker being unfairly shafted for playing in Coors? His career looks HoF worthy to me.

12:22
August Fagerstrom: I thiiiink he might be, yeah. I was actually kind of surprised myself looking at the numbers in Paul’s IG post yesterday. A career 140 wRC+ over nearly 20 seasons is amazing no matter how you slice it

12:23
August Fagerstrom: Even then, he’s not necessarily a Hall of Fame lock in my eyes — if you’re a big hall guy you want him in (And I am, and do), but yeah, people might oversell the Coors effect a touch

12:23
Comment From Minty
Buddos Band “Burnt Offering!” Amazing song and album.

12:23
August Fagerstrom: Budos Band! I walked by their tent at Bonnaroo a few years back I do believe. Liked what I heard. I’ll check them out further

12:23
Comment From mtsw
2015 was the offseason of the fake Mookie Betts trade. Who gets fake traded the most in 2016?

12:23
August Fagerstrom: Puig? Strasburg?

12:24
August Fagerstrom: Except I think Puig actually does get traded soo Strasburg or maybe Harvey? Those are guys who will get fake-traded a ton but not actually moved

12:24
Comment From Guy
Michael Brantley’s shoulder….what are we looking at in terms of missed time to start the season and potential for a down 2016?

12:24
August Fagerstrom: Sounds like late April/early May is the most realistic return scenario

12:24
August Fagerstrom: You’re always concerned about guys that miss ST and how long it takes them to get into mid-season form, or if they ever can

12:25
August Fagerstrom: At the same time, Brantley played through injuries (back and shoulder) all season long this year and didn’t suffer any drop in production. He’s in really great shape and is an insanely hard worker. You could probably say that for a lot of guys, but he strikes me as someone that shouldn’t have too hard a time getting back into/staying in mid-season shape

12:26
August Fagerstrom: Still, it’s certainly a concern for the Indians. They were already probably hoping to not have to start Abe Almonte in center field. Now they have to worry about not having to start Abe Almonte AND ______ (Jose Ramirez? Tyler Naquin?) in the outfield alongside him on Opening Day

12:26
August Fagerstrom: Their need to add an everyday outfielder in the offseason just became a much bigger priority

12:27
Comment From Bray
Over/under Kyle Schwarber 30 HR next season?

12:28
August Fagerstrom: Gonna take the under. Figure he’s limited enough defensively/platoon-wise that he doesn’t rack up enough PA’s to do it

12:28
August Fagerstrom: Certainly has it in him, though

12:28
August Fagerstrom: Gonna say he finishes next year with 24

12:28
August Fagerstrom: If he’s traded to an AL team in the offseason, I’ll sayyyyyyyyy 31

12:28
Comment From Rich
How do the Giants consistently develop successful players who don’t get hyped up in prospect lists?

12:29
August Fagerstrom: If this were an easily-answerable question, the Giants (and Cardinals) wouldn’t be the two teams known for it. Great player development systems

12:30
Comment From Ben
We saw a number of really exciting, young pitchers break out this year. Chris Archer, Dallas Keuchel. Who do you think is on the verge of taking a big step forward in 2016?

12:30
August Fagerstrom: Not sure how much of a breakout you’re looking for, but I like Luis Severino to potentially step into that spotlight next season.

12:30
August Fagerstrom: Could be a homer pick and he’s already pretty high profile, but I think Danny Salazar is an ace in the making

12:31
August Fagerstrom: Raisel Iglesias and Aaron Nola are nice choices to take a big step forward with a full season’s work, too

12:31
Comment From Jaack
Louis Armstrong or Ray Charles?

12:31
August Fagerstrom: no offense to Louis, who’s great, but Ray Charles in a landslide. Ray is the man

12:32
August Fagerstrom: Actually just heard “Unchain My Heart” playing in Starbucks about 30 minutes ago and was very pleased

12:32
Comment From RotoLando
What do you think of Brad Miller and Dan Farquhar to The Rays? The Rays aren’t great at improving hitters, but they really seem to excel at getting RPs back into top form

12:32
August Fagerstrom: Think that trade really just came down to both teams dealing from positions of depth for positions where depth was needed. Too good a fit not to get something done

12:33
Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Star Wars? Star Trek? Or neither?

12:34
August Fagerstrom: Huge Star Wars fan. Just re-watched them all with my best friend in the last couple weeks actually gearing up for the new one. Never been a Trekkie. Saw the Abrams film that came out a couple years ago and thought it wasmeh

12:34
Comment From Buck
Enjoyed the piece on Simmons and D’Arnaud. Is there a way to quickly sort out how many times a hitter has been “robbed” by a fielder? If so, you could compile a list of “darkest histories”, even rank them. My guess is that it’s not possible wo a lot more labor than the results would justify, but if I’m wrong it would be a cool idea for a piece. I’d read it, anyway.

12:35
August Fagerstrom: thanks! Had a blast writing that. As for your question, I have no real idea. I’d just realized that those two amazing Simmons plays both happened against d’Arnaud and the idea planted itself in my head. Everything else after that just worked out perfectly for telling the story

12:35
August Fagerstrom: Would be tough to find another example that fits that well, I’d imagine

12:35
Comment From Chase
In addition to organizational reports, which is a ton of work in itself, do you have anything else planned before the start of spring training?

12:36
August Fagerstrom: that’s a better question for Dan Farnsworth! he’s the one doing the reports. I think he’ll begin chatting with you guys sometime in the somewhat-near future.

12:36
August Fagerstrom: assuming you’re just referring to prospect coverage, that is. I’ll still be writing daily, and the schedule of the rest of the full-time staffers isn’t changing

12:37
Comment From Ben
If you had an infeield of Lindor, Correa, C. Seager, and Russell where do you play them?

12:37
August Fagerstrom: oh man

12:37
August Fagerstrom: this is great

12:37
August Fagerstrom: so, Lindor at short. they’re all likely plus defenders, but Lindor is a step about the rest

12:37
August Fagerstrom: I’ll take….. Correa’s arm at third

12:38
August Fagerstrom: Seager’s height at first

12:38
August Fagerstrom: that leaves Russell to second base

12:39
Comment From dom
Do players get upset when they are extended the QO? I can’t believe a team would be thrilled to give up a draft pick and pay tens of millions of dollars for Marco Estrada..

12:39
August Fagerstrom: well for one, being told you’re worth $15 million is pretty nice. they also understand that this is a business. I’m sure they’d rather their market *not* be depreciated, but they get it.

12:39
Comment From mtsw
Is this the end of Dylan Bundy?

12:39
August Fagerstrom: no, but the fact that the question is being asked says a lot

12:40
August Fagerstrom: he’s still got time, but, man, he really needs a healthy season

12:40
Comment From Ben
Two of the Mariners’ top prospects, Alex Jackson and DJ Peterson, are very much Jack Z guys (RH power without much defensively). Are these the kinds of guys that DiPoto might try to move in an effort to reshape the farm a bit more to his liking?

12:40
August Fagerstrom: I think it’s a pretty fair bet that any time a new regime takes over (this probably applies to all sports/teams, really) anyone is fair game

12:41
August Fagerstrom: FO’s tend to hold on to prospects too long sometimes because they have emotional attachments to them, and they also realize that the success of those prospects says something directly about their abilities

12:42
August Fagerstrom: Dipoto didn’t choose any of these guys in his system. Doesn’t mean they’re all available, but any new GM would want to to start putting his own spin on things

12:42
Comment From JohnWayne
Does anyone want Swisher or Bourn, even if ATL covers most of the salary?

12:42
August Fagerstrom: Bourn might have some value if a team were to cover most of his salary

12:42
August Fagerstrom: Nobody wants Nick Swisher.

12:42
Comment From dom
do you like basketball

12:43
August Fagerstrom: I do! I’m a big Cavs fan. Football, I used to care for, but have completely distanced myself from in the past few years. Never got into watching any other sports, although soccer is fun to play

12:43
Comment From mtsw
Would you support having more extreme/unusual ballparks in the league? Or do you prefer new ballparks to play neutral?

12:43
August Fagerstrom: yes! I love unusual ballpark dimensions

12:43
August Fagerstrom: it’s one of my favorite unique things about baseball

12:44
August Fagerstrom: Obviously Polo Grounds and Ebbets Field cant happen again

12:44
August Fagerstrom: but I really like things like the Crawford Boxes in Houston, short porch at Yankee Stadium, all of Fenway, etc.

12:44
August Fagerstrom: also: Tal’s Hill forever

12:45
Comment From dom
which contract this offseason will be the biggest mistake?

12:45
August Fagerstrom: hmmmmmm

12:45
August Fagerstrom: Cueto? if you’ve gotta go with a big one

12:46
August Fagerstrom: on a lesser scale, just looking at our crowdsourced numbers and picking the first name that seems too high, maybe Howie Kendrick

12:47
August Fagerstrom: BABIP-reliant guy on the wrong side of 30 who dealt with injuries and saw his defensive value (potentially) plummet last season

12:47
August Fagerstrom: 4/50+ might have me a bit nervous there

12:47
Comment From dom
chances Gregorious out-WARs Tulo again?

12:47
August Fagerstrom: well, you’ve always got to mix in the injury factor for Tulo

12:47
August Fagerstrom: soooooo…. 30%?

12:47
August Fagerstrom: too high? 20%?

12:48
Comment From Nick
Potential tribe moves that you can see happening over Winter?

12:49
August Fagerstrom: I think Antonetti makes at least one significant trade. They’ve got a whole host of valuable, young, versatile players that are expendable. Any number of Ramirez, Perez, Chisenhall, Urshela, Bauer/Anderson/Tomlin guys could be packaged for an impact player, in addition to high-minors prospects like Naquin and Erik Gonzalez

12:49
August Fagerstrom: Having depth is nice, but they can deal a couple of those guys and still have good depth. They need someone they can plug in there every day in the outfield or the corner infield

12:50
Comment From Bork
I could see some A’s players getting fake traded a lot this off-season after Donaldson was last year. Thinking Sonny Gray (Sonny Gray for Puig will be most often mentioned).

12:50
August Fagerstrom: Yeah, Sonny Gray has already been fake-dealt a ton. I’m not sure I see it.

12:50
Comment From mtsw
Do you think there’d be a larger market for sports management simulation video games if the user interfaces were more appealing? OOTP is basically a series of spreadsheets, for instance.

12:50
August Fagerstrom: I’m completely obsessed with WhatIfSports’ Hardball Dynasty, so maybe I’m not the right guy to ask. They sold me pretty well

12:51
August Fagerstrom: They did just revamp their interface to make it more appealing, so I guess they’re taking your advice

12:51
August Fagerstrom: I think the more important thing might be marketing. WIS if partnered with FOX. Imagine if Hardball Dynasty was marketed during the WS at all? Could have had huge effects

12:52
August Fagerstrom: instead, FanDuel and boner pills

12:52
Comment From Bork
Is the amount posted for Park kind of ridiculous? He’s projected to be a DH and an emergency 1B option. Those aren’t exactly rare in the MLB, and there’s a lot of AAAA players that could be signed for less and have actual experience against MLB level pitchers.

12:52
August Fagerstrom: I don’t think so. The reports I’ve read disagree with your DH assessment — I’ve actually heard he could be an average+ defender at 1B. And the bat should be way, way better than AAAA

12:52
August Fagerstrom: Just because it’s double the posting fee for Kang last year doesn’t mean it’s high. It means Kang was a complete steal.

12:53
Comment From Tom Waits
Isn’t it about time I release a new album?

12:53
August Fagerstrom: the last one was so good!!! But you’re Tom Waits, so you can (and will) do whatever you damn well please

12:53
Comment From Brian
Justin Masterson a sneaky option for someone who needs a late inning reliever?

12:54
August Fagerstrom: Could be. He was always a reliever being forced into a starter’s role. Just worried that injuries have set him too far back and rendered his already-poor mechanics unfixable

12:54
Comment From lone wanderer
are you a gamer? if yes, will play Fallout 4?

12:55
August Fagerstrom: kind of. I used to be a huge gamer but not as much anymore. I mostly just play a game of MLB The Show or NBA2K here or there. That said, I have been eyeing Fallout pretty closely. Might have to make the plunge

12:55
Comment From Brian
Carrasco really seems like the guy most coveted around baseball for teams who want to upgrade their SP via trade. Texas and Red Sox recently mentioned. Could they actually put together a package that would interest Cleveland? The Red Sox don’t seem willing to deal there young stars, but Texas writer recently said Gallo could be made available. Could you see Texas and Cleveland matching up?

12:56
August Fagerstrom: Thing about Carrasco is, the Indians are only moving him if they feel like they’re absolutely fleecing the other team

12:57
August Fagerstrom: Rangers depleted a lot of their high-end depth in the Hamels trade, so I’m not sure there’s a fit there beyond Gallo

12:57
August Fagerstrom: Red Sox could happen. Cubs and Dodgers seem to line up well. But again, I think the Indians only pull the trigger on a move that the other team’s fanbase would likely hate

12:57
Comment From Trainman
Brian Cashman made some comments about how everyone is available but Andrew Millers name seemed to be one that was the guy that stuck out. Do you see Miller being moved especially with Betances there?

12:58
August Fagerstrom: It’s definitely a position of strength, especially with Justin Wilson back there too

12:58
August Fagerstrom: Yankees don’t strike me as big spenders in this market, I’ve thought that the trade route is more likely how they’ll make their big splash. It’s not gonna be Betances, so Miller becomes an obvious candidate

12:59
Comment From Bork
Is Dan taking over the Tuesday slot of chatting? WILL WE BE LOSING AUGUST TUESDAY?

12:59
August Fagerstrom: not sure about the days. I’ll be keeping a weekly slot, though, and Dan will be slotted in weekly eventually, too

12:59
Comment From Derek
Speaking of shortstops, in 2017, are the real life rankings of them Correa -> JP Crawford -> Lindor -> Seager -> Russell? (p.s. I’m a Phillies homer)

1:00
August Fagerstrom: I think it’s probably

Correa
Crawford/Lindor/Seager (any order)
Russell

1:00
August Fagerstrom: they’re all really close though, honestly. any one could end up being No. 1 or 5 and it wouldn’t surprise me TBH

1:00
Comment From FireDrayton
Rumblings of the Astros being interested in Gordon. Thoughts on that fit and whether he’s the right use of $$$ for the Stros?

1:01
August Fagerstrom: I think he’d be a great fit. I think the Astros make a big splash somewhere in FA, so it wouldn’t surprise me

1:01
August Fagerstrom: I do wonder about getting the best defensive left fielder in baseball to play a tiny left field, though

1:01
August Fagerstrom: Certainly not a drastic difference, but it could limit his potential value at home somewhat

1:02
Comment From Rene Riveras wOBA
Speaking of QOs, does a new system get put in place after the next CBA? It’s hard to say the system is working if no one is accepting the offers, right?

1:02
August Fagerstrom: yeah, something’s gonna give

1:02
Comment From M. Conforto
What kind of player will I be in 2016 and beyond? all star?

1:02
August Fagerstrom: solid regular

1:03
Comment From Rooks
How would you rank: Severino, Matz, Syndergaard, Nola, Gray

1:03
August Fagerstrom: Syndergaard
Gray
Severino
Matz/Nola

1:03
August Fagerstrom: Sonny Gray, assuming. if it’s Jon Gray, then at the bottom

1:03
Comment From The Ivy at Wrigley
Please tell me you don’t like me, August? I’m an abomination that doesn’t belong on an outfield wall.

1:03
August Fagerstrom: love it!

1:04
Comment From Bork
If (big if here) Tulo is healthy next year, is he a good choice for comeback player of the year?

1:04
August Fagerstrom: I don’t think he’s started from a low enough point, is he? Had a decent year as it is, just not quite Tulo standards

1:04
Comment From Mets Fan
Am I crazy for thinking Wilmer Flores can be an average/slightly above average 2B that can hit 20 hr and hit .275?

1:04
August Fagerstrom: that’s the upper bounds, but it’s not insane

1:04
Comment From jon
you’re Epstein, do you move soler or baez

1:05
August Fagerstrom: can’t tell if this is a yes/no question or if I have to pick one

1:05
August Fagerstrom: so I suppose my answer is: if it helps me get another frontline starter, yes, and I’d rather move Baez

1:05
Comment From Derek
If Lebron tried to play baseball, would he be better or worse than MJ was?

1:05
August Fagerstrom: oh man

1:06
August Fagerstrom: worse?

1:06
August Fagerstrom: MJ actually played growing up. Lebron was all basketball/football I believe

1:06
Comment From Brian
Percent chance that Cleveland actually deals either Salazar or Carrasco this winter?

1:07
August Fagerstrom: 19%

1:07
Comment From GO SOx
Red sox should sign david price, then trade bogaerts and a prospect for harvey (and tejada?). PLease dave!

1:07
August Fagerstrom: easy now

1:07
Comment From Tom
Will anyone accept the qualifying offer this week? I think it would make sense for someone like Estrada to either accept the QO or accept a multi-year offer this week, opposed to possibly getting stuck in limbo for months

1:07
August Fagerstrom: no. Kennedy could, I suppose, but no

1:08
Comment From joey
do you see the jays trading one of their big bats for pitching?

1:08
August Fagerstrom: trading something for pitching

1:08
August Fagerstrom: if “big bats” = Encarnacion Bautista or Donaldson, then no. Martin’s not going anywhere either

1:08
Comment From Rob
Jose Quintana for Profar. Who says no? And, would that just be the White Sox filling one need while creating another?

1:08
August Fagerstrom: the White Sox can get more than that for Quintana

1:09
Comment From Bork
What kind of money would Eric Thames be looking at if he returned to the MLB? He’s got experience and is putting up monster numbers in the KBO.

1:09
August Fagerstrom: he’d get a pillow contract first to prove he can do it

1:09
Comment From Lisa
Who signs Chris Davis?

1:09
August Fagerstrom: I’ve liked the Astros for this all along

1:10
Comment From Merv Throneberry
Berrios, Snell, Urias, Giolito by July?

1:10
August Fagerstrom: let’s say 2/4

1:10
Comment From Lisa
How do you improve the Padres?

1:11
August Fagerstrom: trade Justin Upton at the deadline last year

1:11
August Fagerstrom: sorry

1:11
August Fagerstrom: probably deal Kimbrel. probably deal a starter. get at least one competent infielder and someone to play defense in the outfield. Keep Kemp (Because you have to) and Myers in the corners

1:12
Comment From Bork
Do you believe the theory that MJ only played baseball because he was suspended from basketball for betting on games and he and the NBA didn’t want to make it public?

1:12
August Fagerstrom: not really.

1:13
August Fagerstrom: I can legitimately see him having become bored with basketball

1:13
Comment From Mike
What could you see the White Sox doing this offseason? Is Heyward a pipe dream for them?

1:13
August Fagerstrom: more than a pipe dream I’d say

1:14
August Fagerstrom: think the Sox need to be creative on the trade market, rearranging some pieces and money to fill out their depth

1:14
August Fagerstrom: the problem isn’t the star guys that carry them. they’ve got those. they need to not have black holes all over the place and three outfielders who combined for -30 defensive runs saved

1:14
August Fagerstrom: Melky Cabrera needs to be a DH. in order for that to happen, Adam LaRoche needs to not be on the team

1:15
Comment From Phil
Given how the Royals just won, I can’t see the Yankees letting either Betances or Miller go.

1:15
August Fagerstrom: I don’t see it either, but like the Indians with Carrasco/Salazar or the Mets or Nationals or whoever, you need to be open to these things. If the Yankees can deal Miller and confidently think it improves their team, they’ll do it, and Miller is more expendable than Betances

1:16
Comment From joey
do you think kevin pillar had a fluke year and will eventually go back to being a fourth outfielder

1:17
August Fagerstrom: the defense is legit. That’s enough for him to be a starting center fielder, especially on a team like the Jays. The hitting is just a bonus

1:17
August Fagerstrom: also

1:17
August Fagerstrom: Pillar, 2015 wRC+: 93
Pillar, 2016 Steamer wRC+: 97

1:17
Comment From Zonk
I think my team should trade 4 guys (spare part,wash-out,marginal prospect, and nobody) for (Impact Player). Who hangs up?

1:17
August Fagerstrom: me, on all these absurd trade proposal submissions

1:18
Comment From McDude
donaldson for puig and urias, who says no?

1:18
August Fagerstrom: lol

1:18
Comment From jon
harder to fix: padres or white sox

1:18
August Fagerstrom: Sox, I think. The players the Padres should probably move are mostly good players with flaws getting overpaid. The guys the White Sox need to move might not be good

1:19
August Fagerstrom: Ross/Quintana are both similar guys though that could really help fill things out for either club

1:19
August Fagerstrom: But then you’ve got guys like LaRoche/Melky/Danks bogging it down vs. Shields/Kimbrel who still have their value

1:20
Comment From Zonk
Are you into Daily Fantasy at all? 91% of all prizes go to 1.3% of all players, per Bloomberg.

1:20
August Fagerstrom: have never done this, don’t really even know how it works tbh

1:21
August Fagerstrom: alright, I’ve got to go right about outfielders who threw 100 this year. you can read that post later today if that interests you!

1:21
August Fagerstrom: thanks for chatting guys. apologies to the questions I couldn’t get to. we’ll chat again next week.





August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.

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Dooduh
8 years ago

Not sure about the idea that the QO system isn’t working. Not having had anyone accept is bad because?? This comes down to being about selection bias. Teams have been very careful not to make QOs to players who will accept. They’ve only been extended to elite FAs in most of the cases and we’ve already seen a few cases of players who deeply regretted not accepting.

Moreover, we also know that these QOs have kept FA salaries down somewhat as the FA usually had to bear the brunt of the cost of that draft pick. So, I’d say it has worked pretty well doing almost exactly what it was designed to do.