August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 12/22/12

august fagerstrom: hello!

august fagerstrom: being that I missed last week’s chat, what with me being out of the country and all, we’ll go a little longer this week.

august fagerstrom: for now, though, I’m going to head down to the deli and procure myself a sandwich. get those questions in and I’ll be back around noon to commence chatting

august fagerstrom: also, we can totally talk about Star Wars if you guys want

august fagerstrom: today’s chat soundtrack: Vince Guaraldi Trio – A Charlie Brown Christmas

august fagerstrom: I just saw a man carrying a motorcycle up a flight of steps on my way back from the deli, so I suppose we can begin no

Sumar Juh the Jedi: Is there a good reason to sign Mike Leake over Scott Kazmir? I know Kazmir’s older, but they seem more or less like they’ll both be average-ish and Kazmir is almost certainly gonna take less in years and dollars.

august fagerstrom: risk aversion?

august fagerstrom: the only “durable” starter they had isn’t durable anymore

august fagerstrom: maybe they were hesitant to add Kazmir into a rotation full of health question marks. Leake’s been about as steady as they come

Slew: Napoli and Davis? Really??

august fagerstrom: did you think they were gonna sign Davis and Cespedes?

c: can we please not talk about star wars, i’d like to participate in baseball chat, but i haven’t seen the damn movie yet

august fagerstrom: yeah I suppose this is maybe for the best

august fagerstrom: stupid spoilers 🙁

Andrew: It’s often said TJS drops a price tag for a pitcher because getting injured is the strongest predictor of getting injured again. I don’t understand. Most TJ surgeries have a high rate of success and in recent years getting a second is infrequent. I can recall Kris Medlen, but Strasburg, Harvey, Fernandez, Nova, deGrom and many others haven’t had a recurring problem. Medlen and Bundy have, sure, but they seem to be the minority. What am I missing?

august fagerstrom: the success rate of second Tommy John is miniscule

august fagerstrom: it’s essentially a death sentence

august fagerstrom: Medlen appears to perhaps be an exception, with (I believe) Wainwright as the other

august fagerstrom: but, still, it’s a huge risk. guys can live through one. they rarely live through another. teams are hesitant to give years and dollars to a guy with an impending death sentence

Chris H: What would a fair Dodgers/Tribe deal be in your opinion for each of Carrasco and Salazar?

august fagerstrom: Puig+ for Carrasco

cistulli fan: Is Carson great or the greatest?

august fagerstrom: I’m a fan

Jon Becker: Better move for Indians: go bold with something like Carrasco for Soler + more, or something smaller like Bauer for Ozuna?

august fagerstrom: probably Bauer for Ozuna, though I’m not sure that’s necessary

Nate: Congratulations, August… You played yo’self

august fagerstrom: just like they wanted me to

Mike : Thoughts on the Leake signing?

august fagerstrom: around what we figured he’d get. lotta people will think he’s overpaid. teams pay for consistency, and Leake’s been as consistent as they come, and he’s still pretty young

august fagerstrom: not much upside, but the Cards didn’t need to make a huge splash. they needed to not be counting on Jaime Garcia and Marco Gonzalez to throw 300+ innings

Guest: Per the HT article on injuries yesterday, the White Sox have had 428 fewer DL days per year than the league average over the past 14 years. That’s about 3 player years per year. Assuming the average guy who goes on the DL is a 1.5 WAR player (maybe) and the average guy who replaces him is replacement level (seems logical), Herm Schneider is worth something like 4.5 wins a year. Assuming the data for the past 14 years is consistent with his body of work over his 35 year career, Herm Schneider is basically Babe Ruth or Barry Bonds.

august fagerstrom: White Sox injury prevention is one of the most amazing things in baseball that I wish we knew more about

Aunt Jessie: What kind of sandwich did you get at the deli? It might inform my lunch. BLT? Turkey and swiss? Ham and cheddar? I have all of these options available to me.

august fagerstrom: my favorite — the Philadelphian. Proscuitto, Corned Beef, Muenster, Slaw, 1000 Island, and Gulden’s Mustard on Thick Cut Sour Dough

MSW: Ugh, Alejandro de Aza. Is he really necessary with the Mets? He can’t be more than a 5th OF at this point, can’t play center field anymore, and they want him to be the long side of a platoon with Lagares? Do they not care that they have the most valuable asset in all of baseball with that cheap rotation?

august fagerstrom: yeah, seems kind of a weird fit. last couple things the Mets have done have been weird

august fagerstrom: I sure wouldn’t want him in center field on my contending team

Nuke Laloosh’s left eyelid: what kind of hitter do you think maikel franco is? am i crazy to think mini beltre?

august fagerstrom: I mean, yeah, you’re probably crazy to think any player with half a year of experience is a mini version of any HoFer

august fagerstrom: but he looked good last year!

august fagerstrom: love the combo of the discipline with the power, which is probably the basis of your Beltre comp

Keeper League question: how would u rank Blake Swihart / Greg Bird / Matt Duffy for career value? Thanks!

august fagerstrom: opposite order

Chuncey Wiggins: Odell Beckham claims he was intimidated by Panther’s players wielding baseball bats during warmup. What sporting equipment would be best to intimidate an extremely talented baseball player during batting practice?

august fagerstrom: bow and arrow?

august fagerstrom: archery is a sport

august fagerstrom: or I guess just a gun would work too, if you want to go the competitive shooting route

Zonk: Leake for 5/80 strikes me as an overpay; am I right? He can probably maintain a 1-2 WAR pace, but Leake is really an innings eater, and that’s an expensive way to get some innings eaten.

august fagerstrom: lotta money in baseball these days

Jon Becker: To which team does Chris Davis go (Baltimore would be boring, please don’t say Baltimore but if it’s Baltimore say Baltimore)?

august fagerstrom: I guess Baltimore.

august fagerstrom: really didn’t think so at the start of the offseason but there just… isn’t a market developing for him, it seems

andrew: Would any free agents that were playing in the NPB last year be good players here?

august fagerstrom: people seem to like the idea of a Marcus Thames comeback

august fagerstrom: he was NPB, right?

Ryan: Is there something different about recovery from a second TJS as opposed to the first?

august fagerstrom: no idea, personally, but I sure would imagine so, given the difference in success rates on return

Jim: De Aza really gunna be Lagaras platoon mate? Only played 8 innings in center last year.

august fagerstrom: right, this is why this is a confusing fit

brew drown: the outfield defense of schwarber, heyward, and soler makes me itchy….should it not? if alfonso soriano can become a better outfielder at age 34, surely jorge soler can too, right?

august fagerstrom: perhaps

august fagerstrom: I don’t think he’s ever gonna be a plus RF, but he could maybe improve from “not horrendous”

august fagerstrom: I think Heyward will be plus in center

august fagerstrom: Cubs fans just better hope the Cubs pitchers give up a lot of fly balls to center field

Q-Ball: I haven’t seen new Star Wars and don’t want any other spoilers, but just have to know if Jar Jar dies or not. If YES, that would really enhance my enjoyment of the film. Thanks!

august fagerstrom: he could be dead. you wouldn’t know from watching the movie, though, which is the nice thing

Q-Ball: Where were the Indians on Frazier? They could have easily topped the White Sox package. And they could really use Frazier’s bat. Or do they like Urshela that much? Can you shed some light on this?

august fagerstrom: from what I understand, the White Sox were asking a massive return (one of Zimmer/Frazier + Jose Ramirez + another mid prospect) and so the Indians understandably didn’t go there

august fagerstrom: but then you saw what the Reds actually got

august fagerstrom: so

august fagerstrom: who knows! I still don’t understand why the Dodgers were even involved. White Sox prospects should have been more than enough, imo

Kylo Ren: Theo spoke on Soler the other day, referencing that he has slimmed down, looks great, and really think his production when healthy (including playoffs) is legit. What says you?

august fagerstrom: I trust the bat to be quite a bit better than last year

august fagerstrom: he’ll have to show me the defense

Tim: Bettter for the Braves to trade or keep Freeman?

august fagerstrom: at this point why not just trade him

kramer: best team on paper?

august fagerstrom: Cubs

Todd: I don’t remember if you take fantasy questions but if so, does my Joc get his C. Seager (where he needs OF help)? If not, how far apart are we?

august fagerstrom: reminder that I don’t do fantasy questions but Corey Seager is a better baseball player than Joc Pederson, for what its worth

Stinky Pete: Most likely free agent to get Stephen Drewed because of the QO/draft pick compensation? I’m starting to think maybe it’s Daniel Murphy.

august fagerstrom: still going with Ian Kennedy here

Zonk: John Lackey on a 2/32 looks like a screaming bargain compared to Leake on 5/80. Agree? Or am I just looking at this through Cub colored glasses?

august fagerstrom: agreed. Lackey deal looked great from the start

Trav: Any updates on Kenta Maeda? Do we know who submitted posting bids yet?

august fagerstrom: i don’t, at least

Jordan G: Are you a microwave at full power kind of guy, or a guy who likes goes underpower for longer?

august fagerstrom: do people actually adjust the power of their microwave?

Bork: As someone who has nowhere to go to get food and has to bring his own lunch everyday to work…I’m jealous 🙁

august fagerstrom: if it makes you feel any better, as soon as I left the house I was telling myself that I should have just made something at home

august fagerstrom: on the contrary, my sandwich was delicious

Matt: Beane’s been known to make a “big splash” even after beginning what looks like a bit of a rebuild (e.g. Cespedes and Zobrist). Do you think the A’s have one more move left in them this offseason?

august fagerstrom: I maybe wouldn’t count on it, but you can never count Beane *out*

august fagerstrom: could see Reddick getting moved still

JKD: I’m a Nats fan, but live in NYC, so I get to see the Mets more than any other team. And I gotta say, even though it increases the chances of the Nats winning the NL East next year, the Mets’ offseason is truly depressing. You go to the World Series, lose your best hitter and a back-end reliever, and Asdrubal Cabrera, Neil Walker, and Alejandro de Aza are the answers? It’s really sad. No question, it just sucks that the primes of that rotation aren’t being utilized properly.

august fagerstrom: off the top of my head, the Mets’ offseason plan might be the one I understand the least this year

David: Longoria and Kiermaier for Lindor, Frazier, Urshela, Kaminsky and Bradley. Any chance either side would consider it?

august fagerstrom: lol

august fagerstrom: why

Zonk: Theo said on talk radio yesterday that he expects several pitchers to be multi-inning relievers (Cahill, Wood, Richard, Warren). Last year, Maddon frequently pulled starters in 4th-5th inning. Is this a growing trend? This also means Cubs will have an 8-man pen, with a bench of David Ross and only 3 more guys. Thoughts?

august fagerstrom: sure would love to see it, and if any team is set up for it to be successful, it just might be the Cubs

august fagerstrom: Rays did plenty of this last year, though I think more out of necessity than strategy

august fagerstrom: though strategy was involved too

august fagerstrom: could see Hendricks and Hammel going 4-5 routinely, maybe

august fagerstrom: Arrieta Lester and Lackey are gonna get their innings though

JKD: And now that I think about it, given the obviously miserly budget the Mets have been given for FA acquisition, isn’t it actually incumbent on the front office to trade one of their young starters for difference-making position player(s)? Obviously the only way it’s going to happen, right?

august fagerstrom: if you really feel the need for a difference-making position player, than yeah, that appears to be the only way to go about it

august fagerstrom: thing is, I don’t think the Mets share that need

august fagerstrom: Mets think their rotation can carry them to a WS with a good-enough lineup without any major holes

august fagerstrom: just like it did last year

august fagerstrom: Indians are thinking the same thing in the other league

The Average Sports Fan: Do you think the Reds continue trying to deal Phillips?

august fagerstrom: yes

schumpeter: Why didn’t LAD just trade directly with CIN for Frazier and then deal him to CLE for Carrasco? Are Montas, Thompson etc. that good?

august fagerstrom: as far as Major League ready prospects go, they’re decently valuable, yeah

august fagerstrom: CLE tried to facilitate a three-way trade with CIN before it fell apart

august fagerstrom: for what its worth

Kylo Ren: The best lineup in baseball is _____.

august fagerstrom: Cubs

Kylo Ren: The best rotation in baseball is _____.

august fagerstrom: flip a coin and heads is the Mets and tails is the Indians

august fagerstrom: if it lands on its side for some strange reason then it’s the Nationals

kramer: babe ruth was worth 15 wins in 1923. so, would trout need to pitch like greinke every 5th game to provide the same value?

august fagerstrom: maybe wouldn’t need to be that good but something like that

Bork: Is the previous albatross contracts of sluggers who decline after a couple years (eg. Howard) really killing Davis’s market?

august fagerstrom: could be. might have more to do with just the teams that need a guy with Davis’ impact don’t need a 1B

august fagerstrom: that’s the problem with being a 1B, there’s nowhere else you can go

BestFansStLouis: Still a chance Heyward resigns with us???

august fagerstrom: you’re gonna wanna sit down

John: Drew Jackson – lucky 6 weeks or Mariners catch lightning in a bottle?

august fagerstrom: I’m not gonna lie to you — this is the first time I ever heard of Drew Jcakson

august fagerstrom: Jackson

august fagerstrom: scouting the stat line, I’m going to say the guy with the .088 ISO in A-ball probably isn’t looking like a major future impact right now, but he sure looks fast!

Inigo Montoya: Is Inciarte on Braves roster opening day? With 5 years of control it makes sense to keep him. But it also makes sense to trade him given how much value he may bring in return.

august fagerstrom: feels like the answer should always be “no” when asked if a guy currently on the Braves roster will be on the Braves roster in a couple months

august fagerstrom: so I’ll say no, he gets flipped

nacho: thames was playing in Korea, no?

august fagerstrom: yeah probably

Josh: How many wins would add on to Schwarber and Soler’s projections if they were hitting to outfields manned by Schwarber and Soler?

august fagerstrom: man this is a great question

august fagerstrom: all it would do really is increase their BABIP by like………… 20 points?

august fagerstrom: so it wouldn’t be multiple wins, probably just some offensive runs leading to a fraction of a win

august fagerstrom: maybe some singles turn into doubles, too

Ryan: Is there really a chance someone like Cespedes would take a 1-year deal?

august fagerstrom: read that too

august fagerstrom: no, I don’t think so

august fagerstrom: interesting thought though

Bork: Am I being way too positive in thinking that compared to some of the other FA SP deals, Happ’s looks like a steal?

august fagerstrom: probably yeah

Zonk: What, exactly, are the Rockies trying to do at this point? I can’t really tell, can you?

august fagerstrom: the Rockies have been a team since 1993 and I’m pretty sure this question would fit in every offseason since then

DiDiDee: More handsome – Sullivan or Neyer? Or do you have a write in vote?

august fagerstrom: never met Rob before but Jeff is a pretty handsome cat

Tom: Ken Rosenthal tweeting the White Sox have interest in Alex Gordon. If they sign him, does that make them a contender or even possibly the favorite in the AL Central?

august fagerstrom: not sure I’d go so far as favorite in the ALC, but that’s mostly because I don’t think there’s *going* to be a favorite in the ALC

august fagerstrom: think any of the 5 teams, as currently constructed, could reasonably take that division

august fagerstrom: Gordon would certainly increase Chicago’s chances

2-D: Pleasantly surprised by your music choice! Any other jazz trios you like?

august fagerstrom: not trios specifically but I listen to a lot of Jazz. nothing too out-there, though, just the staples.

august fagerstrom: Sun Ra is a big one for me

Eric Weinstein: Does Soler + Baez + Jason Hammel = Chris Archer?

august fagerstrom: something like that

Glasnolito: Due to the issues at the back end of the Nats and Pirates rotation. When do you think we will see guys like Glasnow and Giolito? Can we expect to see them after their service time has be sufficiently held down.

august fagerstrom: or not long thereafter, yeah

A cat: Any word from GM meetings about important CBA changes?

august fagerstrom: not that I heard

august fagerstrom: not that I was looking to hear, either

Kevin: Cubs really have a better lineup than the Blue Jays (regardless of DH)?

august fagerstrom: yeah Blue Jays are right there, too. maybe I’m still riding the Cubs high

august fagerstrom: don’t think there’s too huge of a gap between the two either way, though

Zonk: I see what the Indians are doing, but will they score enough runs to matter? Urshela, and an initial OF of Davis/Almonte/Chisenhall does not inspire confidence. For that lineup to work, everything has to go right, which doesn’t happen much in baseball. Am I off? Or am I right?

august fagerstrom: yeah, they seem to be higher on their ability to score runs than I am right now

august fagerstrom: I’m a little surprised they haven’t made a bigger trade by now

august fagerstrom: I never thought Carrasco or Salazar actually got moved but I expected them to make a Ramirez + prospects deal for a bat, kinda like the rumored Frazier proposal, just without Zimmer or Clint

august fagerstrom: still think it could happen for a Reddick-type but it’s looking more and more like this might be close to the lineup they take into ST

Derek Carr: A’s lineup – Burns/Lowrie/Reddick/Canha/Vogt/Valencia/Butler/Alonso/Semien. Rotation – Gray/Hahn/Bassitt/Alvarez/Hill. Depth behind everyone, high-majors prospects popping up through 2016. A’s are a wildcard team.

august fagerstrom: every team in the AL is a potential wild card team

Zwibi: Teams like the white sox and Phils have glaring holes at SS. When do we get to see the likes of Tim Anderson and JP Crawford? I see a reason for the Phils keeping JP down, but the white sox are looking to win now. Any chance Anderson breaks ST with the team?

august fagerstrom: he could

august fagerstrom: they seem to like Saladino for now, though

Gus: Has a scenario ever played out like the Iwakuma one, and is the M’s rotation top 3 in the al now?

august fagerstrom: yes, no

august fagerstrom: maybe not *Exactly* like Iwakuma’s but players have agreed, failed physicals and moved on before

jpl: Are the Angels serious with a Nava-Gentry platoon in LF or will they sign one of the bigger FAs?

august fagerstrom: Nava-Gentry platoon is an OK plan B, I guess

august fagerstrom: won’t stop them from going after one of the big guys, but they’d live with it if they had to

kramer: with all the stats at your disposal, do you ever bet on the games?

august fagerstrom: nope

august fagerstrom: I do enough gambling on card games to leave sports alone

Derek: If you were a GM on a full rebuild, would you go the Cubs route and get as many hitters as possible or the Phillies route and get as many pitchers as possible? I don’t think there’s a wrong answer, but which is your preference and why?

august fagerstrom: is it a cop-out to say hitters because they break less?

Bork: Are you ready for Christmas?

august fagerstrom: sure

august fagerstrom: still need to go get last couple gifts for friends and family after I write my Royals follow-up post when this chat is over, but then I’m ready, yeah

Guest: Ever listen to badbadnotgood?

august fagerstrom: love em

august fagerstrom: saw em at Lolla this year with my 50-year-old Dad. he was kinda digging it, too, which is neat

august fagerstrom: well I think he was at least

august fagerstrom: maybe he was just humoring me. we weren’t there for very long, caught the very end of the set

august fagerstrom: he’s going to read this chat later and tell me what he thought

Guest: Do you see the Nats making another move this offseason, or do you think they’re going to stand pat? Feel like they still have a middle infield and possibly CF/4th outfielder hole

august fagerstrom: yes I think they’ll add a bat somewhere

Hawk: should Blue Jays fans be losing their minds over the regime change to Shapiro and Atkins? This is very much a thing in the city right now…

august fagerstrom: Shapiro and Atkins are really, really smart dudes

august fagerstrom: the way it went down was weird, but I’d feel fine if I were a Blue Jays fan

Luke: Am I the only one who looks at the Red Sox and sees about a 2 or 3 game improvement in the win department? Their SP is stronger but the bullpen wasn’t bad last year so how much have they really improved? Panda and Hanley are still going to be on the field…

august fagerstrom: well I think plenty of people see a probable 2-3+ win improvement from Panda and Hanley alone, just banking on them not combining for -3 WAR or whatever it was

Kylo Ren: The five lowest fWAR teams right now are in the NL, then throw in the Reds and Marlins–there seems to be a significant separation between the good and bad NL teams. I can’t think of a question.

august fagerstrom: yep. think all 15 teams in the AL are “contenders” in the sense of it wouldn’t be a shock to see them make a WC game

august fagerstrom: only true for like 10 NL teams

FireDrayton: AL West right now…Astros-Rangers-Angels-Ms-As?

august fagerstrom: looks fine to me. I could honestly see any order of any AL division and find a way for it to be plausible, though

august fagerstrom: can’t wait to start seeing predictions roll out

august fagerstrom: gonna be mayhem in the AL

Julio Pepper: I thought the Iwakuma deal was insanely cheap before the injury stuff. He’s projected for 3 WAR next year, and it’s easy to see him putting up 7-8 WAR over the life of the contract. Why were teams so low on him? He’s been fantastic for the past few seasons. Does anybody really think Shelby Miller is going to be that much better than him over the next three seasons?

august fagerstrom: well he did just fail a physical

august fagerstrom: and before that, he was 35 with an injury history, and most recently injured

Nuke Laloosh’s left eyelid: what kind of pitcher can brady aiken be once he, you know, starts pitching again?

august fagerstrom: might not have No. 1 overall pick upside anymore but he definitely has mid-rotation+ upside still

Derek: Should Dom Brown sign with the Cards as a 4th OF and let them do their voodoo magic and let him become the 2016 NL MVP?

august fagerstrom: if that’s what would actually happen, then yes, Dom Brown should absolutely turn into the MVP

Kylo Ren: I’ll write your Royals post for you: The Royals are going to be a .500 team in 2016

august fagerstrom: :\

august fagerstrom: i expect a lot of nasty comments and tweets at me today from people confused about my intentions

Mike: Rather have the Mariners or White Sox rotation this year?

august fagerstrom: Sox, I guess

Bork: Blue Jays fans have rose tinted glasses towards AA and his time with the Jays. Before June 2015 a lot of the same fans were clamoring for his firing.

august fagerstrom: he’s made some questionable trades

august fagerstrom: people like winning though

Jon: If there was a total MLB redraft tomorrow, after Trout and Harper, who is your third pick? I think it has to be Correa or Bryant, no? Can’t imagine another time two rookies were top 5 MLB assets.

august fagerstrom: could be Machado

Robert: It seems…interesting that the Angels (Moreno) basically choose not to spend despite having a huge TV contract. Like he has overreacted to Hamilton blowing up in his face, to the point where there is no effort to win while holding the best asset in the game.

august fagerstrom: they’re walking a fine line with the luxury tax, too

John N. Braca III: My beautiful baby boy Mookie will break Babe’s all time WAR mark this year TAKE IT TO THE BANK

august fagerstrom: heard it here first folks

Rob: Cespesdes, Gordon or Upton. Which one makes the most sense for the White Sox?

august fagerstrom: Gordon

august fagerstrom: he was most recently linked to them, first

august fagerstrom: but also they reallllllly could use some defense, anywhere

august fagerstrom: especially in the outfield, though

Zonk: Pirates did a great job last offseason on a limited budget. This year, I can see Happ and the other budget moves just blowing up, and the Pirates getting swamped in a brutal NL Central. Where do you stand?

august fagerstrom: yeah, not as high on the Pirates as I’ve been in years past

august fagerstrom: hard to like teams that tread too much water in the offseason, even if they’re treading from a good position

Dean: You think Cano’s got anymore 5+ WAR seasons in him? Multiple 5+ WAR seasons?

august fagerstrom: not sure the D will allow it anymore

FireDrayton: Market for closers/elite RPs clearly has moved, based on returns for Kimbrel, Giles. You think teams are valuing leverage differently/more highly? Is it just copy-catting the Royals?

august fagerstrom: yes and yes

august fagerstrom: little bit of both

august fagerstrom: I definitely think teams place a higher value on leverage than what’s in the public sphere

august fagerstrom: and also it’s hard not to look at the Royals last couple years and say “we want that at whatever cost”

kramer: seriously, what would a 15 war offensive line look like?

august fagerstrom: impossible

Norm: Which of the top-tier FA’s yet to sign will be most disappointed with their eventual contract? It just seems that there aren’t that many teams that want to spend big bucks right now. Maybe taking a 1-yr contract isn’t the worst idea since next years FA class sucks.

august fagerstrom: maybe Upton? he’s the most one dimensional of the outfielders left

Rudy: What does Nelson Cruz’s WAR look like this year – north or south of 3?

august fagerstrom: south, but he’s proven me wrong in consecutive years

august fagerstrom: so

Mike: Mookie Betts or Kris Bryant?

august fagerstrom: still take Bryant but it’s close

Jon: Doesn’t the placing higher value on leverage only work if you have smart managers that are willing to use their best RP in high leverage situations (and not just the ninth inning when the team has a 3 run lead)? When is the last time you saw a team trot out its best reliever with the bases loaded in the sixth inning?

august fagerstrom: Francona did that with Cody Allen this year after a rain delay

august fagerstrom: might have been the 4th or 5th actually

august fagerstrom: he uses Cody Allen the way that I think we all want managers to use their best reliever

Bud: Taijuan Walker or Lance McCullers?

august fagerstrom: McCullers

Colin: What kind of hitter is Xander going forward?

august fagerstrom: looks like he wants to be more of a slappy hitter

august fagerstrom: last year’s GB spike is pretty noticeable

august fagerstrom: it worked, but it’s hard to hit for much power when the ball is on the ground that often

august fagerstrom: the answer is ‘good’ either way, but if I were a Sox fan I’d probably want to see more lift

Q-Ball: The Red Sox, Phillies, Reds, White Sox are all examples of teams that have picked a definite direction, up or down. You know where they are trying to go, even if you disagree with the moves. What teams, in addition to the Rockies, seem directionless right now?

august fagerstrom: Padres still kind of strike me as caught in-between, though Kimbrel was a nice move that might signal a new approach, and part of it is just being hamstrung by some of last year’s moves

august fagerstrom: “having Matt Kemp,” basically is what I was trying to say there

august fagerstrom: Marlins are in an interesting position too

Worrie: What are the chances the Cubs flop next season?

august fagerstrom: lower than pretty much any other team

august fagerstrom: which is the same thing we said about the Nats last year, so

Q-Ball: Can Billy Hamilton be fixed?

august fagerstrom: could be that he’s not even broken

august fagerstrom: could be this is just what he is

august fagerstrom: plenty of people thought was a possibility coming up through the minors

august fagerstrom: could probably serve to stop hitting the ball in the air so often, for a start

Chris: You think Dipoto is making the right moves, i.e. surrounding that teams core of Felix, Cano, Seager, Cruz with a higher-floor supporting cast? Or was he basically forced to if he wanted that job?

august fagerstrom: yeah, I mean, with the pieces he had, blowing it up wasn’t really a choice, IMO

august fagerstrom: so he did what he could

august fagerstrom: if I were a Mariners fan I’d be pretty pleased with the first Winter of Dipoto

kramer: how much blame do you place on williams regarding the nats’ flop? in other words, are the cubs a different animal with maddon?

august fagerstrom: think a manager can sway a team by a handful of wins in either direction. still up to the players to play, though

august fagerstrom: FWIW, I’d probably take Maddon over any other manager, and Williams would’ve been near the bottom last year

FireDrayton: Astros still crying out for another impact bat, right? Any reason to think Gattis can be that guy?

august fagerstrom: can’t see Gattis being any better than what he’s been

august fagerstrom: Davis or bust probably

2-D: More likely to happen in your lifetime, Rockies get a pitcher in the HOF or someone hits 763 home runs?

august fagerstrom: yeesh

august fagerstrom: 763

august fagerstrom: let’s go A-Rod

ben: when we see directionless teams should we assume that there is a non-disclosed mandate or approach behind the scenes, or are certain groups genuinely timid and/or non-commital?

august fagerstrom: think the more common thing you see is denial

august fagerstrom: teams thinking their window is open longer than it is

august fagerstrom: see: Reds, Cincinnati

august fagerstrom: Brewers, Milwaukee

august fagerstrom: etc

Raul: Name a few players that you think might put it all together this year and pull a 4-5 WAR season out of their ass – my picks are Leonys Martin and Trevor Bauer.

august fagerstrom: does Rougned Odor count?

august fagerstrom: he was worth 2 wins last year

august fagerstrom: I really really like him

Nick: Forced to choose (if they’re resigned to moving him) what should the Marlins be looking for in return for Ozuna – a top 100 SP prospect, a young MLB SP with maybe either control or injury questions or else a 2.5 WAR innings-eater?

august fagerstrom: innings eater doesn’t make much sense for them IMO

august fagerstrom: think the Bauer/Paxton types we’ve all heard make the most sense. get some upside back

august fagerstrom: I’m not very high on Ozuna, FWIW. Jeff proposed Gausman in a piece he wrote, I personally think that’s a pretty steep price for the Orioles to pay

Derek: Do you really really like like Rougned Odor or just really really like Rougned Odor?

august fagerstrom: i like like him

ben: reason to believe rendon can reclaim value and return to ‘greatness’?

august fagerstrom: plenty of reason

august fagerstrom: being healthy is a major key to success

borigh: Shouldn’t the Mets trade Harvey while he has an enticing amount of team control, if there’s no way they’ll field a league average payroll before he hits FA market? Like, Harvey + Nimmo = Peterson + Montas?

august fagerstrom: I mean, they have pretty much the same roster that took them to the WS last year

august fagerstrom: they don’t need to trade Harey

august fagerstrom: Harvey

august fagerstrom: their position player group looks a little weak, but their pitching is real strong

august fagerstrom: FO sure doesn’t seem to be itching to add an impact bat. they’ll side with their impact pitching instead

Kylo Ren: Would you rather have Matt Williams or Dusty Baker as your manager? Note: It’s a lose-lose either way.

august fagerstrom: take Dusty

august fagerstrom: don’t wanna publish it for spoilers but I really like your theory, Poe. hadn’t thought that yet

Derek: BTW just threw on badbadnotgood, much appreciated. I’m digging them. Phillies question: Can Odubell Herrera pull a 5 WAR season out of his backside?

august fagerstrom: he’d have to reach pretty far

august fagerstrom: you’re welcome on the recommendation, though someone else in the chat brought it up first.

august fagerstrom: look up their cover of Electric Relaxation

Richard: You think Ketel Marte can build on his successful call-up from last year?

august fagerstrom: probably wouldn’t count on the bat being much more than league average at best, but sure, 22-year-old players get better all the time!

Miguel: Do you see Span as an option for Cleveland on a short deal? Would let them move Kipnis and Santana down in the order without phasing Lindor’s spot.

august fagerstrom: thought that made sense before they made a couple moves

august fagerstrom: they haven’t spent an overwhelming amount this season, but they’re real strapped for cash

august fagerstrom: not sure Span is even in the budget anymore

Dawn: Which contract will end up the worst – Pujols, Cabrera or Cano?

august fagerstrom: Pujols

ben: without providing a precise team based scenario, could you envision ryan howard getting moved before the season or at the deadline?

august fagerstrom: yes

august fagerstrom: Phillies probably eat $20 million, but yes

Keith: Which Seager brother ends up with more career WAR – Kyle or Corey?

august fagerstrom: Corey

Drew: Cards writers are saying that Leake maybe got a bonus because he can hit a bit and he won’t need a PH so he can pitch an extra inning here and there. Knowing what we know about the extra time through the order penalty, isn’t that kinda silly?

august fagerstrom: doubt Leake’s hitting acumen factored too much into the equation, but an extra inning here or there throughout the regular season is different than in the playoffs

august fagerstrom: can’t strictly play TTO bullpen games in the regular season or you’ll kill your pen

august fagerstrom: Leake being able to bat for himself in the 6th with men on has its value

Alfred Hitchcock: I would like to hear your thoughts on Greg Bird. He looks like he has a good eye and lots of power. How good can he be? For a Yankee prospect, he doesn’t get much hype. BP has Gary Sanchez ahead of him (50 grade) on their 25-and-under list. Thoughts?

august fagerstrom: he looks like he’ll be a solid starter at 1B. hype might be muted right now because he doesn’t have a spot on the roster yet

august fagerstrom: wait til Teix is gone

Frank Sinatra: Why is Michael Buble so overrated? I would crush him with my fist without spilling a single drop of my martini.

august fagerstrom: didn’t know Buble was rated

Luke: Is it defensible if David Ortiz makes the HOF and Edgar Martinez does not?

august fagerstrom: not from where I’m sitting, no

Cory S.: If Billy Beane was a philosopher, we would call him Mediocrates, right?

august fagerstrom: seems like a good place to end

august fagerstrom: thanks for chatting guys!

august fagerstrom: i (think?) I’ll be off this time next week, but we’ll speak again at some point