August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 7/5/16

august fagerstrom: Nearly forgot I had this! Week of vacation plus a Monday holiday has me all screwed up. Let’s start around 12:10.

august fagerstrom: Alright! Let’s do it

Bork: Hello, friend!

august fagerstrom: Hi, Bork!

Bork: I might be biased but was the Indians/Jays game the other day the worst example of the umpshow this year? Carapazza was straight up awful.

august fagerstrom: It was really bizarre. I’m not sure about “Ump show” — every Blue Jays player that was thrown out deserved it. But it’d be hard not to get thrown out with the calls they were dealing with

august fagerstrom: It seemed like he called a couple way wide in the first and then just stuck with it the rest of the game. Couldn’t remember a zone being that wide in a long time

Chris: Shouldn’t the Cardinals become sellers at the deadline? The division is out of reach and the consolation prize for winning one of the wild card spots is facing a Kershaw/Thor type in a one game play-in to win the right to face baseball’s best team. And it stands to reason that they could get a fairly significant haul for guys like Jaime Garcia, Brandon Moss, Jhonny Peralta, and Trevor Rosenthal (if he turns it around) etc at the deadline – no?

august fagerstrom: No

august fagerstrom: If you can get into the playoffs, you get into the playoffs

Eric: Danny Espinosa? Danny Espinosa! How many homers does he hit this year? 30 possible?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, I just noticed this earlier today.

august fagerstrom: Completely swapped his grounders for fly balls! Pulling the ball more. Going Daniel Murphy

august fagerstrom: Currently projected for 27 homers, so 30 seems totally doable if we’ve got reason to believe he’s altered his swing for more power that the projections haven’t yet picked up on, which we seem to have

Eric Blair: Assuming Jose Bautista gets healthy shortly, what is his trade value if the Jays try to move him. Who would be interested?

august fagerstrom: Not the Blue Jays.

Bob Dobolina: Cody Reed has been getting shelled thus far – think he turns it around this season?

august fagerstrom: He’s made four MLB starts

Q-Ball: So the D-Backs put themselves in 2-year IFA penalty to sign just one guy, Yoan Lopez, who is clearly struggling. 3 IFA years pretty much down the drain. The D-Backs are not a well-run front office, are they?

august fagerstrom: Seems they’ve made more questionable moves than most lately

Whats that Odor: With Sanchez pitching the way he is how would you handle his startervsbullpen situation later this season?

august fagerstrom: Just so hard to speculate without having any idea of his medicals or how he’s feeling

august fagerstrom: Everyone is different

august fagerstrom: I don’t think anyone outside the Blue Jays FO has enough information to responsibly answer that question

Bork: The Rangers are apparently interested in Odorizzi. Is this not a terrible, terrible fit?

august fagerstrom: If the Rangers entered a seven-game series right now, they’d be giving a start to Nick Martinez

august fagerstrom: Any pitcher is a fine fit in Texas

Jeff: Whats wrong with Aaron Nola?

august fagerstrom: Well, a .515 BABIP over his last five starts doesn’t help

august fagerstrom: But also, K’s have been down and BB’s have been up. Going through a rough patch of command. It happens.

august fagerstrom: He’s pitched worse lately, but also, in those same five starts with the 13.50 ERA, he’s got a 3.95 xFIP

Zonk: Are there serious worries for the Cubs, or do you think the recent rough patch is just baseball?

august fagerstrom: Baseball

august fagerstrom: They’re still heads and shoulders above any other team

Erik: Will there be Kevin Durant-style hate directed at Harper or Trout when they leave their teams and join an established dynasty to get their ring in a few years? Or is that less of a thing in baseball?

august fagerstrom: Less of a thing due to the nature of roster construction and star power. Just having a Durant on your team guarantees a playoff berth. On the Warriors, it all but guarantees another finals appearance. No baseball player can do that. The Angels are going to miss the playoffs entirely for the fifth time in six Trout seasons

august fagerstrom: No one baseball player can ever mean as much to an MLB team as Durant means to an NBA team

Bork: With KD signing with the warriors, how ironic is that Lebron is now the underdog savior that all non-warrior fans (GO SEAHAWKS RIGHT??) will cheer for?

august fagerstrom: It’s bizarre

Steve: Juan Nicasio threw an immaculate inning and has been pretty great since being removed from the rotation. Why is reliever Nicasio so much better than starter Nicasio?

august fagerstrom: Any pitcher will be better in the bullpen than in the rotation

Jack C.: August, help me out here. My cousin and I have been in a heated argument for a month now about Tim Anderson. My cousin, an extremely emotional and irrational fan, says this guy is the real deal and will continue his hitting and continue to get better. “20/20 kind of guy”. He also boasts about how better the White Sox offense is. But if you or I replaced Rollins or Saladino, the offense would have improved. Myself on the other hand, look at his brutal BB/K ratio and super inflated BABIP. I realize he should always have a high BABIP due to his speed, but he is going to digress, correct? I believe pitchers will figure him out relatively soon. Thoughts on Anderson?

august fagerstrom: Well, it should be a given that 30.8 K% and 0.9 BB% don’t last in the majors

august fagerstrom: That being said, Anderson’s got the perfect high BABIP profile, always posted extremely high BABIPs in the minors, so it’s not unreasonable to think he could be a .360 BABIP type guy.

august fagerstrom: He’s also still quite young in baseball years, being a late starter

august fagerstrom: I don’t think what he’s done thus far is a total fluke, but the plate discipline definitely needs to improve somewhat for long term success

august fagerstrom: If he could walk just like 5% of the time and keep the strikeouts closer to 25%, I think he could be a league average hitter

august fagerstrom: The Starling Marte profile with less power

t: Hi! How’d you feel about Tito using Bauer vs the Blue Jays in extras? Seemed a little silly to me and maybe he was worried too much about the streak. But then if he doesn’t do that maybe they lose 3 of 4 instead of splitting.

august fagerstrom: I think you always manage to win the game in front of you. Worry about the rest next

august fagerstrom: You don’t throw up any white flags during a pennant race

Tony: I think we need a prayer circle for all the 4th of July hangovers in this chat… Work is brutal today

august fagerstrom: I did the four days in New York with FG, four days in a cabin with all my best friends, then July 4 back in my hometown. My body is completely destroyed. Right there with you

august fagerstrom: Not to mention Cavs parade day

august fagerstrom: Haven’t drank like this since college. Which, admittedly, was like 3 years ago

RABBINICAL COLLEGE GUY: Are you confident that Texas wins the west? Why or why not?

august fagerstrom: I suppose so, just given their lead

august fagerstrom: Am definitely not confident that they’re the best team in the division, though

Erik: Is the Cubs carrying three catchers but using one predominantly in the outfield (first Schwarber, now Contreras) just one in a long list of Maddon innovations which may one day become mainstream, or just a reaction to specific circumstances?

august fagerstrom: I think it’s a specific thing. They’ve got stars that play every day, and guys like Javy Baez and Zobrist give them more flexibility on the bench

august fagerstrom: AKA the ability to carry three catchers and still be able to cover the rest of the spots on the field

Ryan: Pineda Paxton Descfani

august fagerstrom: These are almost three names of major league pitchers.

CamdenWarehouse: Jose Reyes is returning to the Mets today. Instead of the normal questions or commentary, I will remind everyone that some of his teammates on the Mets include Roberto Alomar, Mo Vaughn, Jay Bell, Al Lieter, Tom Glavine, John Franco, and David Cone.

august fagerstrom: Always a fan of old baseball player names.

Q-Ball: Indians…wow. What do you think they need to add at the deadline to round out the club?

august fagerstrom: Jonathan Lucroy or Aroldis Chapman

august fagerstrom: Or a lesser catcher or lesser reliever

august fagerstrom: Those are the two areas of need

Jake M: With the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Astros, Tigers, Royals, Mariners all in deep contention for a Wild Card spot how realistic do you think the White Sox chance of stealing it is? I see their odds are about 16 % right now, would you go higher or lower than that?

august fagerstrom: I typically find little reason to deviate from the odds by a significant margin

Zonk: Of all the division leaders, what club do you think has the biggest gaping hole to fill before the deadline?

august fagerstrom: The Rangers and Orioles need pitching

Q-Ball: I wouldn’t endorse it long-term, but I loved the Maddon OF-Pitcher switch thing last week. You?

august fagerstrom: I’ve been pretty out of the loop the last couple weeks to be honest, so I don’t know the exact circumstances, but I’m always a fan of wacky Joe Maddon behavior.

Ben: Do the Orioles stay in the race in the East and who do you have taking the division?

august fagerstrom: They’ll stay in the race, yeah, but I’d still put my money on the Red Sox taking the division with the Blue Jays and Astros making the Wild Card race interesting

Erik: “If you can get into the playoffs, you get into the playoffs.” Interesting response. Do teams make moves to maximize immediate playoff chances? Sustained playoff runs over multiple seasons? Immediate World Series chances? All are slightly different and would lead to different actions, I would assume.

august fagerstrom: Hard to say, but I’d place the most importance on simply getting in

august fagerstrom: Could just be recency bias of these recent Royals/Giants/Mets teams

Jim: Corey Seager has 5.3 WAR in his first 111 games.

august fagerstrom: He’s a star.

Jerry Sands’ Smile: Who would be your starting AL 3b in all-star game, Donaldson or Machado?

august fagerstrom: Both? With Machado at SS?

Robbie: How good would a player have to be to be equivalent to the power of superstars in the NBA?

Would it be a pitcher with 32 CGSO and a homer every game (guaranteeing 32 victories)?

august fagerstrom: Sullivan had some fun with this a couple years ago: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-imagine-a-baseball-playing-lebron-james/

Lil Mookie Dook: Do you believe the Yankees and Braves when they say thay wont trade Teheran and Miller respectively?

august fagerstrom: Nope

Jack C.: Just to follow up on your Tim Anderson assessment, you see his ceiling as a 3-4 WAR player? Nothing more? A Starling Marte comp is pretty impressive.

august fagerstrom: Just said he had Marte’s offensive approach, and with less power

august fagerstrom: Definitely not comping him to Marte

august fagerstrom: Rather, that he needed to *get to* Marte’s approach for sustainable success.

Bork: SUCK IT USA OUR DAY WAS FRIDAY. I FEEL FIND TODAY. ENJOY YOUR HANGOVERS

august fagerstrom: bork 🙁

Zorak: So should the Mets’ owners just outright ban Sandy Alderson from signing veteran bench OFs to major league contracts? Chris Young, John Mayberry Jr, now De Aza, all terrible, all signed to multimillion dollar deals, all released in July. What gives?

august fagerstrom: all essentially inconsequential moves

Brutal: If a team is down by ten runs in the second, rather than burning out the bullpen are they allowed to just forfeit. What if they just subbed out too many players and couldn’t field a full team

august fagerstrom: I was at Firestone Country Club over the weekend for the Bridgestone Invitational with a couple golf buddies who aren’t real in to baseball that were insistent that teams should be able to do this

august fagerstrom: Indians were down 13-0 in the sixth and just put Chris Gimenez in to pitch. They said they should just be able to forfeit. 162 games is a long season

august fagerstrom: oh my god the Royals just called up a guy named BROOKS POUNDERS

Adam: Without looking, can you name the player with the highest WAR total, with a wRC+ less than 100?

august fagerstrom: probably not, no

august fagerstrom: Kevin Pillar?

august fagerstrom: Gonna guess Kevin Pillar.

august fagerstrom: It’s Kevin Pillar!

Pomeranz: Do you think Dilson Hererra could outplay Reyes right now?

august fagerstrom: Yes

Bork: The pirates have the two worst qualified starters in the NL by fWAR (Niese, Liriano) and a third who is 6th worst (Locke). They have a winning record. How?

august fagerstrom: why, good position players, of course

august fagerstrom: sixth in WAR there

august fagerstrom: also outperformed their baseruns by a few games

Beersy: Got an opinion on grime? Personally I love the beats and the fact that there’s constant beefs and drama

august fagerstrom: I looove Dizzee Rascal’s Boy in the Corner

august fagerstrom: Been listening to Skepta’s track Shutdown a lot lately

august fagerstrom: It’s a genre I should really explore more but haven’t

Nathan: Will we ever see managers move an awful corner OF between RF/LF based on hitter handedness? Kendrys Morales for example could have played RF with Matt Holliday hitting and then switched to LF when Brandon Moss came up. Seems like a next step after shifts but also runs the risk of embarrassing a player.

august fagerstrom: Eno and Sam Fuld on this! http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/switching-corner-outfielders-in-games-090814

Rob: Do you think the White Sox will just keep treading water year after year or do you think there is some hope they will do a rebuild, trading off some assets to replenish?

august fagerstrom: Probably time to rebuild.

Bob: Now that Trevor May is back, how long do you think it will take until he claims the closer role?

august fagerstrom: He’s the best arm in that pen. Shouldn’t be long

The Great Bambino: Do you think we see Jose Berrios back in a Twins uniform immediately after the AS Break?

august fagerstrom: He’s the best arm in their system. Shouldn’t be long.

Jack C.: Thank you for the clarification! Really enjoy your prospect chats.

august fagerstrom: Eric Longenhagen does the prospect chats, not me! But you’re welcome

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

august fagerstrom: !

Bork: Don’t be sad August. Instead of a hangover I got told I’m going to be a father.

august fagerstrom: Congrats, Bork!

august fagerstrom: Unless you didn’t want to be a father.

Bork: Also second Bork in here now apparently. NEED MORE BORKS.

august fagerstrom: BorkBorkBorkBorkBorkBorkBorkBorkBorkBorkBorkBork

august fagerstrom: You’re all the father

Kevin: When you look at the stats for AVG (or wOBA, OPS, wRC+, etc) against a certain pitch, or pitches in a certain location, or whatever, how is that calculated? Is it just BIP and Ks? If a guy sees two set-up fastballs that he swings and misses on, and then freezes on a well-located backdoor slider, it seems weird that this only counts for the slider, not for the FB

august fagerstrom: Don’t typically look at those

Thomas: Are playoff stats included in career stats? It seems like they usually aren’t, but that seems silly to me.

august fagerstrom: They aren’t

august fagerstrom: Should Jeter really get all that extra WAR because he played on a dynasty for two decades?

Nick: Without immediately checking the stats first, would you say that Napoli has been having a decent year so far ?
OK, now looking at the numbers, I get it, career high k%, career low bb%, bad defense…but I was surprised to see FG only having him at 0.3 WAR this far into the season. Guess I’m getting thrown off by all the moonshots.

august fagerstrom: Yeah, it’s funny how much praise he’s gotten for being a barely average hitter without any defensive or baserunning value

august fagerstrom: He’s right-handed, has a beard, and when he hits homers, they go far

august fagerstrom: That goes a long way in getting fans to like you.

Gary: Think we actually see Brantley shortly after the break?

august fagerstrom: Seems doable. His performance will be another question

Zoo Nino: Thoughts on Zunino? Seems like he’s made real changes in his swing and plate discipline, still just 25.

august fagerstrom: Tough to tell yet at the plate, but his floor will always remain high due to his framing

august fagerstrom: BP calculates framing across all levels, and Zunino’s ranked as the most valuable framer in organized pro baseball all year

Seven Costanza: Votto with a 174 wRC+ since May 27th. He had a 172 wRC+ for all of 2015. Are April and May more an outlier? At this point, should we just say “bad months happen” and assume Votto is still a really, really good hitter?

august fagerstrom: Should’ve been doing that all along

Q-Ball: I see the Reds fired the pitching coach. That should turn things around, right?

august fagerstrom: Yep!

august fagerstrom: Definitely doesn’t have to do with the bullpen being completely void of talent

august fagerstrom: And the rotation being completely void of healthy arms

Semien Sample: My kingdom to whoever can figure out the longest HR ever hit on a ball where the pitcher does the finger-up-in-air routine-fly-ball move.

august fagerstrom: This sounds like a really good Sam Miller article

Zonk: What is wrong with Jason Heyward?

august fagerstrom: He’s not hitting for any power

august fagerstrom: That being said, still projected to finish as a 3 WAR player!

Q-Ball: Massarotti thinks Kris Bryant is overrated. I think Kris Bryant is the early NL MVP among position players. Where do you land?

august fagerstrom: Who is Massarrotti?

august fagerstrom: I don’t know how highly he’s being rated, but Kris Bryant is one of the very best players in baseball

august fagerstrom: Alrighty, that’ll be it for this week! Actually dried up the queue for once. People must be slow to recover from July 4

august fagerstrom: Have a good week everyone! Same time same place next Tuesday