August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 8/30/16

august fagerstrom: Yo! Chat will start shortly after the top of the hour

august fagerstrom: In the meantime, listen to this new Bon Iver single that I have not been able to quit replaying:

august fagerstrom: I’m not even a particularly huge Bon Iver fan, but I can’t get enough of the new sound he’s displayed on the three singles. Insanely hyped for this new record. Love the new direction

august fagerstrom: ok!

august fagerstrom: let’s begin

Brett W: Your chat might be more efficient and effective if you lead with the curve.

august fagerstrom: hey! a nice topical reference to kick things off. i like it

august fagerstrom: Also — this chat did not begin with Bork, so I suppose I have, in a sense, led with the curve.

Jack: Your favorite for Al Cy Young?

august fagerstrom: Off the top of my head, I think if I had a vote right now it’d still go to Quintana, though I gain the sense that due to his record/name/team/whatever, he won’t get serious first-place consideration. Kluber looks like the leader in the clubhouse, to me, right now

august fagerstrom: It’s so wide-open, though, that I honestly think between now and the end of the season, any of 10 names could do enough to stick out from the pack

august fagerstrom: Hell, Rick Porcello and J.A. Happ are legitimately in the mix

august fagerstrom: I mean, https://twitter.com/AugustFG_/status/769360679606321152

Erik: Which team’s season has gone the most exactly as expected this year?

august fagerstrom: The sucky, rebuild teams who have been sucky while rebuilding

august fagerstrom: Rangers have seemed pretty Rangersy, too. And the Orioles?

JD15: I know the Mets have a bad manager and have not performed up to expectations this year, but are people sleeping on them? As of today, they are 2.5 games out with a still dangerous pitching staff.

august fagerstrom: They’ve got 1-in-5 playoff odds right now. I don’t know if they’re being slept on. Maybe they are by the Mets’ fanbase, because the Mets’ fanbase is insane

august fagerstrom: Mets’ fanbase: Mets lost last night? Playoff odds: 0%. Mets won last night? World Series!

august fagerstrom: Painting with a broad brush of course, but based on what comes into my Twitter feed, it’s quite the reactionary bunch

august fagerstrom: So I guess whether they’re being slept on depends entirely on whether they won last night

The Cincinnati Kid: Paternity leave aside…is Salazar “back?” Did you see everything firing on full on Sunday?

august fagerstrom: I’d still be pretty concerned about that elbow.

Andrew: If you could only have one for the next five years: Thor, Fernandez, Sanchez

august fagerstrom: Fernandez, I think

august fagerstrom: Definitely not Sanchez

JD15: Who is the most fun team to watch in the MLB right now?

august fagerstrom: Has to be the Cubs

Ryan: Mets, Marlins, Royals, Astros: all are 2 or 2.5 games out of a wild-card spot. Which one do you think has the best shot to secure a post-season berth?

august fagerstrom: Astros

JP: The Park Factor calculations are explained in the “Park Factor – Five Year Regressed” article (from the Fangraphs Library). Is this still the current method, or has anything changed since 2005?

august fagerstrom: Current method as far as I’m aware

JD15: Do you think Moncada gets the call? If so, is he a platoon option at 3B or just a baserunner?

august fagerstrom: Think he does, and think he plays himself into a bigger role than what the Red Sox seem to be letting on right now

ResumeMan: August, can you comment on Jacoby Ellsbury’s record catchers’ interference this year? He blew past the record in like early August and had another last night. What is it that causes him, specifically, this year, to get so many of those?

august fagerstrom: Jeff wrote about this last month!

august fagerstrom: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/jacoby-ellsbury-is-out-of-control/

august fagerstrom: Stands far back in the box and has a swing plane that I guess makes him more susceptible to hitting the glove

Nick: I don’t know if you’ve seen/heard much about Tim Anderson’s defense, but it seems to my eye that he can play a decent SS, which is more than I thought the scouting reports said. Even if the power regresses to what he did in the minors, he looks like a quality SS.

august fagerstrom: Still have a real hard time buying in with a 25% K-BB%

john: Can Ryon Healy be a consistent 125~ wRC+ dude? Maybe in the .280/.330/.480 model? Move him off 3B and that’s a pretty awesome player.

august fagerstrom: I’d take the extreme under on that

Fire Kevin Cash: Second-half Odorizzi sports an 1.59 ERA, tied with Hamels for the AL lead, but an xFIP of 4.58 (4.42 on the season). He’s looked sharp, but should we expect him to come crashing down?

august fagerstrom: Well Odorizzi’s always been an xFIP outperformer because of his extreme fly ball tendencies

august fagerstrom: But, no, he hasn’t been *that* good

Dylan: Besides Hamilton’s speed and Stanton’s power, what do you think are some 80-grade tools in the MLB right now?

august fagerstrom: A lot of what Clayton Kershaw does?

august fagerstrom: Command? Curveball? Slider?

august fagerstrom: Chapman’s fastball, Kiermaier’s field

JT: Reading through your recent post on increased breaking ball usage. Do you think this is something that will be sustainable, or is it more of an element of surprise type deal that will be adjusted to?

august fagerstrom: Like Callaway said in that piece, with a pitch as good as Kluber’s curve (or Hill’s, or Fernandez’s, or Tanaka’s splitter, etc.) increased usage shouldn’t suddenly turn the pitch ordinary

august fagerstrom: Those are elite-level pitches. I think the usage would have to be crazy-high before you’d start seeing diminishing returns

august fagerstrom: I see little reason why guys with pitches like that couldn’t/shouldn’t throw them 40%+ of the time and be fine

august fagerstrom: I asked Callaway, hypothetically, what a cutter/curve-exclusive version of Kluber might look like. Essentially, if he pitched exactly the way he would if he were a reliever. Callaway smiled and said, “Who knows, maybe he’ll be that guy when he’s 35, 36?”

jon: Cubs BABIP Suppression update: Cubs .256 BABIP allowed, .297 league average. 86 BABIP+. They need to run about a .277 allowed over the remaining month to take the record. Concurrently, the Dodgers have gone from running a .267 at the time of your article to a .285. The Cubs have gone from a .250 to a .256.

august fagerstrom: Yeah, Cubs sure look like they’re gonna set the record.

august fagerstrom: An all-time record!

august fagerstrom: Pretty amazing.

Slew: The Indians aren’t going to choke the division away, are they?

august fagerstrom: Got about a 1-in-10 chance of doing so, according to math

Dock Ellis: So I just moved to Denver. Do you know how much of a Coors Field effect there will be with my disc golf game?

august fagerstrom: Wait, actually this is fascinating. Would hyzers suffer more extreme effects the way curveballs do because of their break?

TJ: Donaldson has been murderdeathkilling baseballs recently. Any shakeups in your AL MVP ballot?

august fagerstrom: I think that when he wins the MVP again over Trout it’ll make me a little sad but I certainly won’t be able to argue with the choice, just like last year.

august fagerstrom: Argue with convinction, at least.

Kristen: Thoughts on Carlos Gomez being 1 for 19 with the Rangers? Puzzled by his addy as I don’t know what he brings to the table that incumbent LF’ers DeShields/Rua/Profar didn’t.

august fagerstrom: Upside

august fagerstrom: He’s not very good, though.

another bad dynasty manager: So where do the Orioles go from here? With Tillman on the sideline indefinitely, shouldn’t they concede this season is lost? And if they’re smart enough to face that reality, shouldn’t they shut down Dylan Bundy (or at least move him back to the bullpen) for the rest of the year? Why risk another injury to him when the odds of making the playoffs get lower with each loss?

august fagerstrom: They’re currently the second Wild Card team with 31 games remaining. Go ahead and try selling your team that the season is lost.

Nelson: Roto question- start Hill in Coors tonight?

august fagerstrom: I have like 1/14th the necessary information required to answer this question with any amount of confidence

Andrew: Is Michael Conforto still likely to turn into a foundational offensive piece for the Mets? Or is his trajectory significantly worse after this lost year?

august fagerstrom: Michael Conforto is still a very good baseball player who is very young and whose career is far from over. He looks less good than a year ago but still could be very good in the future

Zach: I’m not entirely sure if he’ll be eligible, but I feel like Josh Bell should go into next year as a pretty strong NL ROY contender, right?

august fagerstrom: He *should* retain his rookie eligibility

august fagerstrom: And, yeah, he’ll likely be in the mix, though without defensive value he’ll, of course, really have to hit

natsfan: How would you rank Cole Hamels? Top 3 pitcher in AL?

august fagerstrom: Results-wise this season or true-talent wise?

august fagerstrom: Either way, outside the top 10, I think.

august fagerstrom: Hamels to me is more like a very, very strong No. 2 who comes with the reputation as an ace

Dock Ellis: That Bon Iver song is amazing!!! Have you listened to the new Glass Animals album yet? This chat needs more Glass Animals.

august fagerstrom: I have never listened to any Glass Animals before! Suppose I ought to.

FireDrayton: AL Wild Card will be….?

august fagerstrom: BOS/HOU

Joe, Esq.: Since there has at least been some studies to find correlation to throwing higher velocity/fastballs leads to TJ, could the curveball movement for Hill/Kluber/Fernandez/etc, actually be a double good thing in that they don’t rely on pitches that get smacked around as much and get to ride their best pitches while lowering long-term stress on the elbow?

august fagerstrom: Could be? Don’t think we really have any idea though.

The Vandy Man: Players who used to be in the MLB: Aaron Rowand, Darin Erstad, Mark Grudzielanek, Khalil Greene, Joe Crede

august fagerstrom: Grudzielanek! He used to be my favorite player when I played Strat-O-Matic with my Dad as a kid

august fagerstrom: He alwaaaaaays got clutch hits for me

august fagerstrom: His grit factor on those dice rolls was off the charts

august fagerstrom: Let us also not forget this insane Aaron Rowand catch:

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

august fagerstrom: two of the chat regs back-to-back! Love it. RIP Bork.

Tommy Lasordid: Maybe it’s from being a Dodger fan, but starters seem to be so inefficient with their pitch counts these days. 100 pitches to get through five innings? Any stats to back this up?

august fagerstrom: More guys are focused on pitching for the strikeout now.

august fagerstrom: Strikeouts run up pitch counts

CapnZippers: Speaking of the Mets winning last night: 80 Grade bat flip by Cespedes, huh?

august fagerstrom: Only saw a still image of it RTed by the CespedesBBQ boys, but thanks for the reminder to check the video

august fagerstrom: Someone can post it in here if they want

Dave Aunepetitegraine: Why is Tanaka not getting much Cy Young love??

august fagerstrom: He should

Matt: If the World Series ends up Cubs/Indians, I have to think the Indians win. Historically, Indians have been great hunters and usually win against full-grown bears, let alone Cubs. But if it’s the Rangers, they usually used pistols – and I bet a Cub takes them out.

august fagerstrom: Better analysis than I could provide.

Erik: Should the Phillies have tried harder to tank this year? By finishing about 9th worst in the league, they’ve cost themselves millions in the draft and international pool without ever genuinely threatening for a playoff berth. Should they have tried harder to avoid that, or are there vague unquantifiable positives that come with trending in the right direction like this?

august fagerstrom: I think the unquantifiable positives are quantifiable. Some of their young players are better than expected. That can only be interpreted as a positive

Erik: Which team is the most fun compared to their record?

august fagerstrom: Reds!

Brett W: 187 pitches in a high school game. Can you use your bully pulpit to make it stop?

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/8/29/12571952/2016-summer-koshien-japanese-high-school-baseball-pitch-count-report-nagekomi

august fagerstrom: Passan’s already on it.

E: Guys who played in the MLB: Doug Mientkiewicz, Scott Spiezio, Shawn Chacon, Danny Graves, Jason LaRue

august fagerstrom: Double-whammy!

Andrew: Besides speed and a low GB/FB, what skills can improve a player’s wGDP?

august fagerstrom: Striking out a lot.

Gabe: Everyone knows the “not all prospects pan out” line and it’s obviously true, so how have the Cubs had so much success with their guys? They even had guys like Contreras who came out of nowhere and are legit scary. Soler looked like he might bust, but now is killing it. Idk, it’s crazy. And as a fan of another team I just don’t get how they’ve done it. Is it law of averages making up for all the Brett Jackson’s of the world?

august fagerstrom: A strong player development team.

august fagerstrom: What *that* entails, it’s near-impossible to say.

Joe McMahon: For the 80 grade tool question. Everything Andrelton Simmons does with his glove. Arm, range, fielding, everything.

august fagerstrom: Yeah, probably that.

Da Bum: Glad your namesake month is almost over?

august fagerstrom: Very. Although it sometimes feels like September is actually the month with the highest frequency of people in public saying “August” aloud and unintentionally grabbing my attention. Like, “Oh, in August I traveled to L.A. to visit friends and blah blah blah…”

Dave Aunepetitegraine: Can you name 3 pitchers with 2 – 80 pitches?

august fagerstrom: I’m not sure 3 exist

Erik: What 20-grade tools are in the league right now? (Ignoring things like DH’s fielding or pitchers’ hitting.)

august fagerstrom: Revere’s power? Victor Martinez’s speed?

Dave Aunepetitegraine: As a pitcher, would you rather have 80 command and 3 – 50 pitches or a pitcher with 40 command and 3 -70 pitches?

august fagerstrom: First one, I think

Steve: What’s the difference between Fangraphs and Rotographs?

august fagerstrom: RotoGraphs is fantasy-specific

Dave Aunepetitegraine: Was Mariano’s cutter an ‘over-80-grade pitch”?

august fagerstrom: I mean, that doesn’t exist, so no, it was an 80

Tebow: Will I play winter league ball? Or is this just a desperate act of seeking attention one last time?

august fagerstrom: Sounds like you might! I hope you do! Would certainly be entertaining

august fagerstrom: And I don’t particularly mind all the attention that’s paid to you

Shane: If the Red Sox make the playoffs, which one of Price, Porcello, Wright, Pomeranz, and Eduardo doesn’t make the rotation?

august fagerstrom: Eduardo goes to the pen

Bucket List: Last night I watched one of the worst performances I’ve ever seen from a home plate umpire in the Pirates/Cubs game (inconsistent strike zone, blatant missed calls, crappy attitude toward players) . How does the league work with umpires to improve their game in-season and how do they determine if it was just a bad night for a good ump or just a bad ump?

august fagerstrom: They get graded immediately after every game by PITCHf/x if I recall correctly

Rick: Is Kris Bryant a lock for NL MVP at this point?

august fagerstrom: There’s enough baseball left for a Bryant slump and a Seager hot streak to flip the script, I think, but right now he’s the easy favorite

JT: ZIPS and Steamer project Naquin to hit .250 – .260 the rest of the way. Sound reasonable to you?

august fagerstrom: Sure. He’s obviously not going to run a .400+ BABIP forever. When I wrote that Billy Hamilton soft contact post a couple weeks back, I found that Naquin was arguably the most fortunate batter in baseball on bloops over the heads of infielders

august fagerstrom: Had something like 9 hits on those types of batted balls, batting like .550 when the rest of the league hit .100 or something. He’s a high-BABIP guy by nature, but of course he’s been fortunate, and the strikeout figures are certainly still worrisome

Bucket List: Jake Arrieta. 14 pitch at bat — as the batter. How rare is a 14 pitch at bat by a pitcher?

august fagerstrom: Sounds rare enough to investigate for a potential article!

Mark L: Better HOF chances-Hamels or Grienke?

august fagerstrom: Greinke

Mike T.: August, recently John Gibbons texted Mark Buehrle joking that rosters expand in a few days. Buehrle texted back a picture of a lake. Do you think he pitches again in MLB?

august fagerstrom:

Mike: Who is your favorite for AL ROY? There’s no clear, runaway favorite there like there is with Seager in the NL from what I can tell.

august fagerstrom: Fulmer’s probably the favorite

Alby: Is the fastball easier on the arm than other pitches? Is it easier to command? Why do most pitchers throw at least a plurality of fastballs?

august fagerstrom: No, Yes, Because of the answer to question No. 2

ShakeYourTushieHasegawa: When looking at the DEF column, because of positional adjustments, would a CF with 2.5 DEF be average, or is zero average?

august fagerstrom: First thought would be correct. In a 100% complete season, a CF with a Def of +2.5 would be getting that value entirely from the positional adjustment

august fagerstrom: AKA 0 runs saved

E: Now you’re letting just anyone name guys who used to play in the MLB? I’m hurt.

august fagerstrom: Didn’t realize it wasn’t you, E!

Mr. Cohen Always Here: Thanks for the Aaron Rowand flashback! I was playing basketball outside my house when it happened, and my dad forced me to come inside and watch the replay.

august fagerstrom: The more old players the merrier! E will always be the originator, though.

ShakeYourTushieHasegawa: How are your shoulders, August? I’ve had an ongoing issue for 20 months (since Dec 2014) and they still can’t figure it out. They even scoped and cleaned in January of this year. ..I don’t mean to sound insensitive, but be happy they know what’s wrong with your shoulders! Also, as you’ve said you have been told, go slow and steady with your rehab

august fagerstrom: Don’t hurt daily anymore! Just waiting for surgery still. Thanks for checking in. Hope your issue gets figured out and cleared up

jordanh415: How do you think Rich Hill’s curveball profiles in Coors Field?

august fagerstrom: Been asked this question a ton so I guess I’ll answer it. It profiles as probably slightly less good than usual, like any pitcher’s curve in Coors, but still good

Dock Ellis: So I researched disc golf in high altitude. Apparently it makes discs more overstable. I’m playing my first round today, I’ll give you an update next week.

august fagerstrom: Fascinating!

Dock Ellis: Who are five players playing today that E will post in your chat 20 years from now?

august fagerstrom: E?

jon: Re: Cubs player development — Theo has been quoted that they identified Mookie Betts’ ability to recognize pitches through digital simulations before drafting him. So that group Cubs/Red Sox brain trusts may have found specific indicators not known to the public. https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/02/18/neuroscouting-may-give-red-sox-heads-prospects-potential/EFBHR3zNdThk1NboRpNMHL/story.html

august fagerstrom: Also fascinating!

Alexei!: My Rangers look good, provided no one gets absurdly hot, should they be AL favorites?

august fagerstrom: I like the Blue Jays still, but Texas is a close second

ShakeYourTushieHasegawa: Chase Utley is now in the top 100 for all time WAR for players with over 5,000 PA

august fagerstrom: Sort of bizarre qualifications, but Hall of Famer in my eyes nonetheless

I am the walrus: From the naked eye, it looks like Contreas is costing the Cubs lots of strikes? Your thoughts? Do you think it’s enough to cause Maddon to go another direction in playoffs?

august fagerstrom: The numbers disagree with you: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/willson-contreras-has-developed-into-an-everyday-catcher/

njs: hows the shoulder? do you like soccer (if so, who do you root for)?

august fagerstrom: No soccer for me

august fagerstrom: Don’t dislike it, just has never captured my attention. I played when I was younger and enjoyed it, just don’t want

august fagerstrom: watch*

august fagerstrom: Although I do get real wrapped up in the World Cup for some reason. And every four years I tell myself, ‘You should watch soccer more often.’ And then I go four years without watching

I am the walrus: Most valuable defensive postions…1-C, 1A-SS, 2-2b, 3-CF, 4-3b, 5-RF, 6-lf and 1b? How far off am I?

august fagerstrom: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/positional-adjustment/

august fagerstrom: C
SS
CF/3B/2B
RF/LF
1B
DH

august fagerstrom: That’s how the positional adjustments go

Aunt Jessie: Oh, I was wondering how/if you’re still gonna be able to type during the rehab for your shoulder(s)!

august fagerstrom: I’m intrigued by this too. When I dislocated the left last month I wrote a couple articles in my sling. Just had to turn to the right and position my laptop on the edge of the desk. It was annoying but I made it work. Gonna be in the sling for 4-6 weeks after surgery so better figure out a way to make it work.

E: Great question, Dock Ellis – 20 years from now we’ll remember: Jonathan Schoop, Mike Napoli, Drew Smyly, Jason Hammel, Yunel Escobar

august fagerstrom: And there you have it!

august fagerstrom: That’ll do it for this week.

august fagerstrom: Thanks for chatting, everyone, as always

august fagerstrom: Same time same place next Tuesday

august fagerstrom: peace!