August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 9/27/16

11:50
august fagerstrom: Just a heads-up, guys — had shoulder surgery on Thursday, and my left arm is currently totally immobilized and hooked up to a cryotherapy unit. Makes it sort of difficult to type, so bear with me on the speediness of this chat.

11:55
august fagerstrom: Soundtrack: The Antlers – Burst Apart

12:05
botchatheny : you are looking well

12:05
august fagerstrom: about how I’ve felt the last few days

12:07
petey: Sale/Kluber/Porcello looks like a total dead heat for the AL Cy. How would you decide a tiebreaker between them?

12:09
august fagerstrom: Sale: 5.9 RA9-WAR, 5.2 FIP-WAR, 6.9 DRA-WAR (6.0 tWAR)
Kluber: 5.7 RA9-WAR, 5.1 FIP-WAR, 6.1 DRA-WAR (5.6 tWAR)
Porcello: 6.2 RA9-WAR, 5.1 FIP-WAR, 4.7 DRA-WAR (5.3 tWAR)

12:09
august fagerstrom: Probably start there

12:09
august fagerstrom: I know some folks don’t like the “mixing of WARs” approach, because it’s a bit disingenuous as all are attempting to measure totally different things

12:09
august fagerstrom: But, I mean, Sale is the best pitcher by all three. I think DRA’s capturing of him being severely negatively impacted by framing, which is completely out of his control, is a big point. He’s probably my guy right now.

12:10
august fagerstrom: I lied, actually, he’s not the best pitcher by all three. Porcello is by RA9

12:10
august fagerstrom: But, still.

12:10
jon: For all the talk of Cubs BABIP suppression and where it comes from, what’s lost is the Cubs staff has the lowest xFIP in the majors.

12:10
august fagerstrom: I think people understand that the Cubs aren’t just some BABIP-fueled machine. They’re an incredibly talented staff with an incredibly talented defense and what appears to be incredibly talented coaches/front office-types

12:11
Mike_C: Fernandez currently leads the league in K/9, FIPs, xFIPs, and fWAR among qualified pitchers. What are his Cy Young chances?

12:11
august fagerstrom: If the season ended today, he’d have my vote, and it has nothing to do with his demise.

12:11
Graves: Corey Seager is pretty good, can he get… better? In what areas of his game do you see the most potential growth?

12:11
august fagerstrom: Defense. Which seems highly unlikely.

12:13
Hideo Nomo: Is the chance that Jose Fernandez wins the NL Cy Young higher or lower than it was?

12:13
august fagerstrom: Slightly higher, I’d guess. But I think more importantly is that he just deserves it regardless.

12:13
M&M: I don’t think I’ve ever been so affected by the death of someone I didn’t know as I have been by Jose Fernandez’s. What do I need to do to make myself care about baseball again? I’m saying this as a CLE fan, fully aware they clinched last night. Couldn’t even smile once.

12:13
august fagerstrom: It’s not something you can force.

12:15
august fagerstrom: What Dee Gordon and the Marlins did last night absolutely devastating — I was in my mom’s kitchen sobbing like a baby — but I think it also helps serve as a reminder as to why we watch baseball and what it does for us. It’s a distraction, a distraction that can be gorgeous and uplifting. I had wondered how I’d possibly care about baseball the rest of the season until Dee Gordon did the most beautiful thing I’ve ever seen in the realm of sports. It brought me to my lowest point, and subsequently made me give a shit about baseball again.

12:15
Mike_C: Have you thought about looking into speech to text software during your convalescence?

12:17
august fagerstrom: My mom recommended that. Problem is my FanGraphs posts aren’t just something that I write 1,000 words straight through. There’s tons of editing and rewriting, not to mention Excel work, table-making, video-watching, gif-making, etc. I’ve got a decent set-up right now with some pillows and a USB keyboard that get me elevated enough to where I can kind of use my left arm to help with some typing. No scenario would be ideal, I don’t think.

12:17
Elton: Tell us more about this cryotherapy unit. Is liquid nitrogen steaming out of it?

12:17
august fagerstrom: It is this thing: http://www.gameready.com/rehabilitation-equipment

12:18
august fagerstrom: It’s essentially a high-tech ice box with a shoulder sleeve that applies compression and ice to your shoulder in 30 minute increments, that you wear all day

12:18
august fagerstrom: It’s both horribly cumbersome and a massive inconvenience and ultimately soothing and a major relief

12:19
FireJoeMorgan.com: Great article on the evolution of saber metrics & how people are wrong

12:19
august fagerstrom: Agreed. This is a good read.

12:19
Elton: I just finished “The Only Rule Is It Has To Work”. Did you read it and if so what did you think?

12:19
august fagerstrom: It was awesome, and nothing like I expected. Leave it to those guys to write such a compelling, touching human-interest book with a nerdy baseball narrative.

12:19
august fagerstrom: They are the absolute best.

12:20
ShakeYourTushieHasegawa: Hope your shoulders are healing okay mr fagerstrom. Thanks for your personal memories on fernandez this morning, they kept the tears coming.

12:21
august fagerstrom: Thanks. It’s really bizarre when you cross paths with someone and they’re gone three weeks later. That’s certainly not to say that I’m more negatively impacted by Jose’s death than anyone else, but it makes for a very surreal experience to have so recently felt an energy that has since been extinguished.

12:21
august fagerstrom: I’m really glad I was able to see him acting like a big, exuberant child the way I did. I also imagine he was just like that all the time.

12:22
Erik: Who is baseball’s Carson Wentz, a rookie that people think have a chance to be good eventually but everyone expects will take time to develop, but then goes and produces like a veteran right away?

12:22
august fagerstrom: I have no idea who Carson Wentz is, so maybe not a great comp, but your description reminded me of Francisco Lindor. And, really, tons of rookies over the last couple years. Seems more and more these guys are ready to contribute as soon as they get here.

12:23
Bruce: If every manager was thrown into a draft who would go 1-2-3? Maddon, Bochy, Showalter?

12:23
august fagerstrom: That’s a strong top three. Might swap Bochy for Francona.

12:24
Raindog: As an O’s fan, about once a week I get a panic about Machado not being extended. He’s getting $5M now in 1st arb year. Think that $10, $15 for remaining two, then 8 yrs at $30 for a total 10/$265 gets it done?

12:25
august fagerstrom: I think you have every right to be panicked about his not being extended

12:26
august fagerstrom: A player of his caliber on a franchise like the Orioles makes that seem like a longshot, IMO, even though both parties have expressed interest

12:26
EvanC: Paul Goldschmidt stole his 29th base last night. Any idea the last time a 1B stole 30?

12:26
august fagerstrom: to the Play Index!

12:29
august fagerstrom: Since the expansion era began in 1961, there are just nine instances of a player who played more than half their games at first base stealing at least 30 bases, accomplished by eight different players, most recently Jeff Bagwell, in 1999, when he stole exactly 30. Bagwell is also the only first baseman to do it twice, as he stole 31 in 1997

12:30
august fagerstrom: Rod Carew has the first baseman steals record, with 49 in 1976. The last time a first baseman cracked 40 steals was Gregg Jefferies (46) in 1993. Others: Gerald Perry (42, 1987), Lee Mazzilli (41, 1980)

12:31
august fagerstrom: Other 30-bag stealers were Dan Driessen, Joe Carter, and Cesar Cedeno

12:31
august fagerstrom: So, yeah, it’s been 18 years! Pretty impressive. Might even be post-worthy.

12:31
august fagerstrom: Particularly given decline of steals league-wide since those guys played.

12:31
CamdenWarehouse: Sam and Ben want Fernandez on a HOF ballot. What is your take?

12:32
august fagerstrom: I’m game. No harm in putting him on there and letting the voters decide, in my opinion.

12:32
Al: http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/22/try-try-try-to-understand-dan-warthen-is-a-magic-man-yeah-well-make-heart-jokes/

no need to post. would love to see a similar article from fangraphs (or you, personally) about this

12:32
august fagerstrom: Will read after the chat.

12:33
ShakeYourTushieHasegawa: Could you please give me your best guess as to what Ivan nova receives in free agency? He’s been great since coming over to PIT, but his track record is..spotty. Also, his average opponent thus far has had a 92 wRC+ (that’s Jordy Mercer). And while Nova’s made some sustainable adjustments, mainly ditching the slider and pounding the zone, he’s benefited from a 2.91 ERA against CIN(3x), MIL (2x), and PHI, while running a 4.47 ERA against LAD, SFG, HOU, and WSH. Maybe…12m aav? Or does he get more in a weak market?

12:34
august fagerstrom: I think you obviously start with Happ. Nova is three years younger with higher previous highs (Nova’s 2011 and 2013 were better than anything on Happ’s resume) but also he’s not been nearly as dominant as Happ was with Pittsburgh last year. Happ being such a success for Toronto may also play in Nov’s favor. Maybe an extra year but at slightly lesser money? 4/45 or so?

12:34
august fagerstrom: I’m also admittedly *terrible* at contract predictions, so you’d be better off asking Cameron.

12:36
Bad Hermit: Nice band choice but, considering your condition, I feel that you should have chosen Hospice as the album.

12:36
august fagerstrom: I won’t lie, Hospice was how this started. Ha.

12:36
august fagerstrom: Much prefer Burst Apart (and Undersea) to Hospice, though

12:37
tommylasagna: True/False: The World Series determines the best team in baseball in a given year.

12:37
august fagerstrom: False

12:38
Raindog: David Ortiz has the highest wOBA in baseball. Ted Williams managed that trick in his final season. I’m willing to bet no one else has. This is pretty ridiculous, isn’t it?

12:38
august fagerstrom: I’m not certain, but the answer may be in here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/best-final-seasons-part-one/

12:38
spartacus: For the younger readers, I was in college during 9/11… I didn’t see the point in going to class while there were people at Ground Zero still searching… I felt like I should have been doing something more important. The baseball games were canceled for several days and when they resumed, obviously the joy wasn’t there. It took a few weeks. I went skydiving that October… trusting a plane was the first big step in feeling safe again… JF’s death is different, but shocking. It will take time. Don’t rush it. Feel every emotion.

12:39
M&M: Thanks for answering. You’re a really fantastic person, and you make me feel better. I’m sitting at my desk at work trying not to cry, but I mean that in a (mostly) good way. Thanks again.

12:39
august fagerstrom: Thank you.

12:39
RABBINICAL COLLEGE GUY: What reasons do you have that the Cubs will not win the series? Not in any specific order.

12:39
august fagerstrom: 1. There are a lot of good teams.
2. Baseball is weird.

12:39
august fagerstrom: fin

12:39
Amy: Which is more telling about each of these players futures in baseball: Aaron Judges struggles, especially with Ks, or Gary Sanchez’s crazy hot start (though cooling off lately)

12:40
august fagerstrom: Sanchez, I think. A player proving he can excel to that level over a (somewhat) extended period of time says a lot more than a guy struggling in his first attempt at major league pitching. Judge still has tons of time to adjust and adapt. Sanchez has already proven something.

12:41
You Better You Better You Betts: Who are five 25-under players who have the best HOF chances? Trout, Harper, Betts, Syndergaard, and Correa might be my personal choices

12:41
august fagerstrom: There definitely wouldn’t be a pitcher

12:41
august fagerstrom: Trout, Harper obviously. Next three I think would be Bryant, Machado, and… Correa, with Corey Seager a close sixth. I can already see Betts being underrated by Hall of Fame voters with 75 career WAR now.

12:42
august fagerstrom: Though hopefully by the time of his induction we’re past the underrating of amazing all-around players

12:42
august fagerstrom: Also maybe he sheds that narrative by hitting 30 homers every year.

12:42
Zonk: Tell O’s fan Raindog he’ll always have Chris Davis….

12:42
CamdenWarehouse: @Raindog – the sooner you accept that Machado will go elsewhere (think the Yankees) the better. You can then enjoy that for some length of time the Orioles had a great one.

12:42
august fagerstrom: 😮

12:43
Eric Weinstein: How much are you rooting for the Marlins to win out and somehow leap past the Giants and Cards for a playoff spot?

12:43
august fagerstrom: I mean, that would obviously be about the most amazing thing. But their playoff odds are 0.2%

12:43
The Grinch: Guess which SS is 4th in WRC (behind Seager, Correa, Machado)

12:44
august fagerstrom: is it Aledyms Diaz still?

12:44
august fagerstrom: Ah, he doesn’t qualify

12:44
august fagerstrom: Asdrubal Cabrera!

12:44
august fagerstrom: Baseball’s best hitter over the last month

12:44
CamdenWarehouse: What can you tell us about Falvey?

12:44
august fagerstrom: Has a fantastic reputation inside the org. That’s about all I know.

12:44
august fagerstrom: And, clearly, outside the org, too.

12:45
august fagerstrom: Indians have been like a farm system for high-ranking front office execs over the last decade. Post coming about that topic later this week,

12:45
2-D: What did you think of Paul Hoynes’ heel turn from last week?

12:46
august fagerstrom: I totally respect Paul Hoynes as a person and as a journalist. He’s a legend, and he’s never been anything but kind to me in the press box. I also think his piece was terribly irresponsible, and deserving of most of the pushback it received.

12:47
august fagerstrom: I also think Cleveland.com’s decision to follow-up with three more pieces, a chat, and a video to sell out for clicks rather than to play damage control and apologize for their reckless journalism was an even worse look than the original piece.

12:47
august fagerstrom: Guess that’s the state of the business in 2016, though.

12:48
Bork: I’m surprised that you, working from home, don’t have more experience typing with one hand.

12:48
august fagerstrom: heyyo!

12:48
Derek: Is there a way that we can take the RBI statistic and put it to better use? For example, could we look at the Total Number of players on base that a batter has during the season to determine a success rate? Is there a way to account for positive, neutral, and negative outcomes (ex. a hit vs. a sacrifice fly vs. a strikeout). I would really appreciate any thoughts you have on the topic.

12:49
august fagerstrom: RBI% This is something that BaseballProspectus offers (as OBI%) and which I quite enjoy: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1964735

12:50
august fagerstrom: This year’s qualified leaders:

1. Daniel Murphy, 21.7%
2. David Ortiz, 21.2%
3. Nolan Arenado, 20.5%
4. Mookie Betts, 19.7%
5. Eric Hosmer (!), 18.8%

12:50
ernie camacho’s specs: late to the party, but Wil Myers has 28 steals this year, too. Maybe 2 1B with 30+ steals.

12:50
august fagerstrom: this would be great

12:50
Julio Pepper: Another HOF question: how do you feel about enshrining domain excellence? For instance Luis Aparicio, or if Ozzie Smith had been such a bad hitter that he only finished with 40 WAR. Do you think there’s anything to the statement “the greatest defensive SS ever should be in the Hall of Fame?” I realize you can take this line of reasoning too far, but it’s just something I’ve been thinking about.

12:50
august fagerstrom: I think it’s worth discussing.

12:51
jon: Re: Fernandez and Cy Young. He allowed really hard contact and according to Blengino’s work, it wasn’t a fluke, more part of his profile. His candidacy is entirely on K% as complete pitching supremacy.

12:51
august fagerstrom: Applies to Danny Salazar and a couple others, too.

12:51
ctw: can someone give me an executive summary of this hoynes business? guess I missed it and would rather not click through to whatever the original piece is

12:52
august fagerstrom: On a day that the Indians won, but lost Carlos Carrasco, he wrote a eulogy for the Indians’ season, definitely declaring them dead in the headline and the lede, with no chance to advance in the postseason

12:53
august fagerstrom: I understand losing Carrasco was a huge blow, but their WS odds dropped from like 13% to 9%, and he wrote the piece as if they were at 0%, which is just blatantly irresponsible. Particularly when you look at the pitching staffs of teams like the Royals and some of the more recent Giants teams to advance.

12:53
CamdenWarehouse: Mark Belanger for HOF!!!!

12:54
august fagerstrom: Right, see, this is where that becomes an issue. You’ve got to provide value *somewhere* else, I think. Belanger and his 71 wRC+ aren’t getting in just because he was an all-time defender

12:54
Sonny: OMAR VIZQUEL HOF!!!!

12:55
august fagerstrom: Vizquel’s probably a better argument. Cleveland fans stick to “if Ozzie is in, Omar should be in,” but Ozzie was also a better hitter with a better offensive peak, and, as much as childlike August doesn’t understand it, every zone-based defensive metric that correctly states Ozzie as the best defensive SS of all-time thinks Omar was great, but not an all-timer.

12:56
MATT: % chance Chapman goes back to the Yankees this offseason?

12:56
august fagerstrom: 15%?

12:56
Tony: More impressive drought. Cubs 107 years without a title, or 70 years without a pennant? I’ve always contended that the 70 years without even MAKING the World Series is a more impressive display in futility.

12:56
august fagerstrom: I think the most impressive part of the drought is Chicago.

12:56
august fagerstrom: Like, with Cleveland, it’s more understandable. How Boston and Chicago went/have gone so long without winning in those markets is nearly unfathomable.

12:57
HugoZ: You’re seriously misusing the term “irresponsible” in regards to an opinion piece. He has a responsibility to expressing his beliefs, not catering to your wishes.

12:58
august fagerstrom: It’s irresponsible to present a factually incorrect opinion as fact.

12:58
Tim: Is Kershaw not eligible for Cy Young? Historically low WHIP, historically high K/BB ratio, microscopic ERA. will start 21 games and finish just under 150 innings. How was he not the NLs best pitcher this year?

12:58
august fagerstrom: He’s eligible. The missed innings count for something, though.

12:58
Joe, Esq.: What do you think is the best way for the Indians to handle the rotation in the postseason? Kluber, Bauer, piggybacked Clev/Tomlin, Kluber, Bauer, etc.?

12:58
august fagerstrom: Probably, yeah.

12:58
Tim: But by counting stats he was still the best pitcher.

12:59
august fagerstrom: I’m not saying he doesn’t have a case. He does. Just saying, we can’t totally ignore the innings gap.

12:59
Maikel: What do the Mets do with Jay Bruce? Seems plausible they could leave him off playoff roster. Do they pick up option and try to recoup a little prospect value?

1:00
august fagerstrom: I think he stays on the postseason roster and serves a pinch-hitting role, and potentially a DH in AL parks if the Mets get that far. As for the option, I still think it’s picked up. He has more of a role if/when Cespedes leaves, and it’s still not crazy to see him being worth close to 2 wins and earning his 13 million.

1:01
Matt: Your 15% figure on Chapman back to NYY – got some context? Obviously, uniform probability isn’t applicable at 1/30, but does 15% mean you think it’s likely?

1:01
august fagerstrom: Just totally spitballing. Started with 1/30, figure half the league either doesn’t have need for an elite reliever or is priced out, then adjusted up a bit for familiarity/Yankees payroll.

1:01
august fagerstrom: Maybe 10% would be a more responsible guess.

1:03
august fagerstrom: Alright, y’all. The queue is pretty dried up and my arm hurts from this elevation, so I’m gonna go lie back down and watch season 2 of Narcos before I write tomorrow’s post. Take care

1:03
august fagerstrom: see you in one week from one hour ago





August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.

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Scott Mooremember
7 years ago

Does anyone know where I can find spin rate statistics?