While perusing the season’s infield hits leaders, I ran across a fair share of usual suspects. Ichiro leads the pack (as he is wont to do) and names like Juan Pierre, Brett Gardner, Rajai Davis, and Carl Crawford aren’t unexpected whatsoever. The sight of Ryan Braun, however, had me taken aback when really it shouldn’t have.

Braun is of course a former third baseman moved to the outfield who hasn’t latched onto the concept of playing good defense. His skill set as a batter is pretty well-established. He hits for power, doesn’t strike out too much, doesn’t walk too much either, but maintains a high BABIP in part because of his speed – he’s generally good for two or three full hands of stolen bases. I knew Braun stole some bases. Heck, I looked right afterwards to see whether: 1) Braun stole bases, and 2) if he often collected so many infield hits. Yet, I still didn’t feel comfortable with Braun being Ichiro-lite.

So I asked someone with more exposure to Braun than most people about it…Jack Moore. He surmised that while Braun was a poor defender, it had less to do with his speed and more to do with his instincts and angles. It adds up. Still, accepting that Braun has nearly as many infield hits as Derek Jeter (and more than Johnny Damon, Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn, Pierre, Crawford, and numerous others) the last three seasons felt odd because of his defensive limitations.

Thus I was wondering: what other players get poor raps on their speed and baserunning abilities because of their defensive reputations? The one name that I found more absurd than Braun is Jason Bay, who has 56 infield hits the past three years which is a few more than either Jose Reyes or David Wright have. When I think of Jason Bay, I don’t think of him busting down the line and beating out balls hit deep into the hole or down the line.

Who are some others with speed that simply doesn’t show up in the defensive evaluations because they lack other skills?

The book on David Aardsma was always the same: power arm with a blessed fastball, but wild command and an affinity for fly balls – and by extension, home runs. He was essentially a major league journeyman. The former first round pick out of Rice had spent the first few seasons of his career within the Giants organization but only appeared in big league games for the club in 2004. His next major league appearance would come for the Cubs in 2006. In 2007 he’d stay in Chicago, but move to the Southside. In 2008 he’d remain a Stocking, but change hues from Black to Red.

Think about that. Aardsma pitched in every season from 2006 to 2009 and never spent time with any one team in consecutive seasons despite a live arm. That all changed in 2010 as Seattle became his home. His first real major league home. Consistency in role and location is supposed to make players better, right? Aardsma probably has a real comfort level with how the Safeco bullpen mound translates to the playing field mound. And how Safeco’s dimensions play on humid days and cool days alike. He mostly knows the divisional foes and how potent or weak their lineups are. That should make a player a little more aware, a little better.

Except it hasn’t; at all. It would be ridiculously unfair to expect Aardsma to fully replicate his 2009 season. He posted a 3.01 FIP, a 4.12 xFIP, and a 2.53 ERA. Those are pretty good numbers from anyone, but he always posted a 4.2% HR/FB and a career low groundball rate (25.3%) which, well, nobody needs to have what regression means spelled out to them. Moving forward, it was simply unrealistic to expect Aardsma to have that kind of luck continue. This season, his HR/FB is up to 12.1%; nearly a career high and well above his average. He’s gotten a few more groundballs than last, but his ERA is over a 5, his FIP is over 4.5, and his xFIP is 4.32.

Not much has gone right for the Mariners this season, and Aardsma is another example. While none of the projection systems figured he’d post an ERA less than 3.5 or a FIP less than 3.97; they also didn’t have him as one of the worst relievers in a bullpen that’s failed to impress. Nobody should’ve seen 2009 Aardsma walking through that door again, but nobody should expect to see 2010 Aardsma to continue at this pace either.

Jacob Arrieta and Wade Davis are both aged 24, right-handed, and rookie starting pitchers cutting their teeth in the frenzied American League East. Neither is recording the kind of whiffs their stuff would seemingly demand – as David Golebiewski covered with regards to Davis just a few days ago – and they share something else in common: their inability to finish batters after getting ahead 0-2.

It seems odd to discuss that attribute of pitchers with an FIP over 5.00 apiece. After all, isn’t the problem that they simply don’t get ahead enough? Well, no. As it turns out, Davis and Arrieta both go 0-2 on 25% of their plate appearances; that figure places them within the top 20 of American League pitchers- more often than Jon Lester, James Shields, John Danks, and equal to Felix Hernandez – worthwhile company, to say the least.

Davis is actually just behind David Price for the best rate amongst Rays’ starting pitchers, while Arrieta leads the Orioles’ staff. League average is 23%, so both get to the optimal pitcher’s count at a steadier rate than a good number of their peers. The issue, though, is finishing. Golebiewski noted how Davis used his heater more often in two strike counts than league average, and while Arrieta doesn’t have that issue when it comes to non 0-2 counts, he does rely heavily on his fastball on 0-2 counts.

The results are Davis striking out batters after 0-2 counts less than 31% of the time while Arrieta is at a modest 35%. Compare that to some of the better pitchers in the American League, like Cliff Lee and Jered Weaver (45%) or David Price (44%) and the youngster’s strikeout rates look subpar. Major League average is at 42% while American League average is nearly identical.

Causation and correlation aren’t always bedmates and one of the byproducts of being a good pitcher is finishing batters after getting ahead- meaning it’s no surprise that bad pitchers struggle to finish while good pitchers excel at it. The issue just seems like a case where young pitchers need to make adjustments. That’s good news for these youngsters, although it could quickly turn sour if either fails to make those required adjustments in a reasonable frame of time.

Overview

The Phillies currently sit six games over .500 and three-and-a-half back of the Atlanta Braves. The New York Mets hold a two-game lead over the Phillies for the wild card position, although the Phillies are also behind the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers at this point. With Chase Utley and Placido Polanco both out for at least the next two weeks, and with Utley probably missing additional time after undergoing surgery, it might behoove the Phillies to look for at least one replacement infielder, as opposed to fielding Wilson Valdez and Greg Dobbs during a pennant chase.

Buy or Sell?

This is pretty clearly a buy situation, particularly on cheap-ish third base and second base options. That makes names like Kelly Johnson and Jose Lopez potential fits; although neither is quite Chase Utley.

The rotation features only two pitchers with xFIP under 4.5, with Joe Blanton being the trailer (4.96 xFIP). Given the money being paid to Blanton, though, it seems unlikely he’ll be moved to the bullpen. I won’t make the reference to a certain dominant AL starting pitcher, but you have to wonder how different this team would look right now with his presence.

Most Phillies fans would probably love to move Raul Ibanez’s contract, but again, that just seems unlikely. And unless there’s some blockbuster on the horizon, a Jayson Werth deal probably isn’t happening, no matter how quickly it would make the trade market so much more interesting.

On The Farm

Domonic Brown is the Phillies’ top prospect and perhaps the most untouchable player on the farm given Werth’s pending free agency and Ibanez’s pending trip to the glue factory. Phillippe Aumont, Juan Ramirez, and Tyson Gillies were acquired from Seattle in the off-season and are amongst the top 10 prospects. They have a dearth of middle infield prospects, which partially explains why their replacements for Utley and Polanco border on replacement level ballplayers.

Budget

The Phils’ payroll is already at an all-time high, just shy of $140 million. Nobody outside of the organization is quite sure what the roof on potential spending is, but it’s hard to imagine the Phillies rejecting a trade based purely on funds.

When selecting an adjective to preface a player’s name, there are always a few ways to go. Take Carl Crawford. If kicking a little knowledge about his contract status is your thing, then go with “pending free agent.” If you’d rather kick it old school with his age, then hit the folks with a “28-year-old.” There’s always more obvious attributes to throw in front of Crawford’s name too, like “speedy” or “athletic,” but if you really want to accurately portray Crawford’s play this season, then “MVP candidate” might do the trick.

No, really. Justin Morneau leads the majors with 4.8 WAR and Robinson Cano is close behind at 4.5 WAR, but it’s Crawford who is in third with 4.2 WAR; no other major league batter is over 4, although Josh Hamilton and David Wright are a sneeze away. Crawford probably won’t surpass Morneau anytime this season, but he’s playing at a ridiculous pace. His best season came just last year as he finished with 5.5 wins. He’s more than three-fourths of the way there and the mid-season break isn’t for another week. That’s unfathomable.

Crawford’s wOBA is near .390 and his ISO nearing a career high. It’s not being buoyed by an increased amount of homers, though, as every year since 2005 has been held as the perspective year for Crawford’s first 20 homer campaign. It still hasn’t happened and may never happen; he’s projected to finish with 14 this year. On the basepaths Crawford offers success through excellent conditioning and various moves. He’s not quite Kobe Bryant on the baseline, since he doesn’t have a move as effective as a jab step, but he’s so well-conditioned and able to differentiate between pickoff move and honest movement towards the plate that it’s generally to a perfect throw when Crawford is caught.

It’s not just Crawford’s offense getting the job done either. He rocks his glove on the right side and yet has no issues with balls hit to either his glove side or arm side. Watching him for long enough in comparison to players without such blessed range make you appreciate that Crawford only dives when the ball is on the outer limit of human being physical limitations. The numbers reflect this too. Crawford’s 15.2 UZR figure puts him on a pace to eclipse his previous career high in yet another category. His UZR/150 is currently 32.1 which would top his 24.1 number in 2004.

Surpassing Ben Zobrist’s 2009 season for the best season in Rays’ history by WAR seems unlikely since Crawford has to remain on this pace. That result would be an ever so fitting parting gift if Crawford is indeed on his way elsewhere this off-season.

Preface that with “bittersweet”.

The 2009 season ended poorly for Miguel Cabrera. An arrest and the Tigers’ collapse coincided with the worst month of his season which wasn’t all that poor by anyone else’s standards. The dialect associated with the 27 year old was unkind and the offseason carried with it rumors of a potential trade for budgetary concerns. Those passed and as such Cabrera has spent the 2010 season changing the language like Babylon.

As far as pitchers are concerned, Cabrera’s play is in Brail since encountering him includes feeling a few bumps along the way. Here he is, the same guy who broke into the league as a 20 year old with an above average wOBA; the same guy that has recorded a wOBA over .400 in three of the past four seasons; that same guy, posting inflated numbers even when compared solely to his career.

How’s he doing it? By walking more and striking out less than he’s ever done as a resident in the American League. A career best ISO of .291 (previous best: .245) is fueled in part by a career high home run per flyball percentage; a measure that Cabrera is generally consistent in:

2004: 20.1%
2005: 17.9%
2006: 15.6%
2007: 18.5%
2008: 18.9%
2009: 18.3%

He’s not doing it with an inflated batting average on balls in play as a .349 mark is one point above his 2009 total and only three points above his career average. He’s not hitting too many more liners or grounders than usual either and he’s making contact at the same rate. This next level performance is driven solely by the aforementioned improvements which could be a degree of luck as well as Cabrera moving into the expected statistical prime of his career.

ZiPS updated projection has him finishing with a .424 wOBA which would simply annihilate his previous best, and that’s saying something, since Cabrera produced five wins with his bat alone in 2006. He probably won’t crack six, but he’s going to come close.

When the Diamondbacks extended Josh Byrnes’ contract in February of 2008 through 2015 and included a small stake of team ownership, they probably didn’t envision firing him just two and a half years into the deal. Yet, per Bob Nightengale, that’s the case, as both Bynes and manager A.J. Hinch were axed.

Arizona is only 31-48, good for last place in the National League West, but they could be so much better without one of the worst bullpens in recent memory. Byrnes is responsible for assembling the unit, and boy, are they ever bad; collectively they hold a WPA of -7.45. That’s nearly five wins worse than the Milwaukee Brewers at -2.91. The 2007 Devil Rays set all kinds of notorious records and their bullpen’s WPA was -7.83.

Byrnes is also responsible for a number of good things, too. Like, acquiring Dan Haren, Adam Dunn, and Jon Rauch — as well as signing Kelly Johnson and Adam LaRoche. He’s also the guy who traded Carlos Quentin away and signed Eric Byrnes to an iffy extension, so not all he touched turned to gold. Prior to becoming the D-Backs’ general manager he worked within some mighty fine front offices, including Boston and Cleveland; and coincidentally Byrnes just finished second in Buster Olney’s polling of executives when asked what GM they would want to hire, with the notable quotable being:

Josh Byrnes, Diamondbacks (2) “I think he’s smart as hell, he’s well thought-out, and he’s a good person.”

Well, there’s some good news for that quoted general manager: he can now keep his job and have Byrnes in his front office.

When the Orioles acquired Joshua Bell (along with Steve Johnson) in exchange for George Sherrill, it seemed like a potential coup. At the time, Bell was 22 years old and mashing in Double-A to the tune of a .296/.386/.497 line. He stayed in Double-A upon joining the Orioles and continued his earth-scorching ways with a .298/.354/.579 line while hitting 9 homers in 127 plate appearances (he’d hit 11 in 391 with the Dodgers). Needless to say, the Sherrill deal looked a bit silly just months after it was made.

Fast forward to nearly a year later and Sherrill has only pitched 19 innings for the Dodgers this year, and they were horrible innings at that. Some of the shine has worn off Bell too, though, since at Triple-A Norfolk he only hit .266/.311/.455. He still flashed power, with an ISO just less than .190, but his walk-to-strikeout ratio worsened dramatically; from 0.62 last season to 0.24 this season. For perspective on how poor that number is, consider that Adam Jones – the Orioles centerfielder – is pretty horrendous at drawing walks and strikes out a moderate amount of time, and yet, his major league career walk-to-strikeout ratio is 0.24. Which is to say: Bell’s not winning any awards for leading the league in BB/K anytime soon.

Nevertheless, the Orioles promoted Bell today, following a Luke Scott injury. Bell has only played third base this season (along with some DH work) which clashes with the Orioles attempt to make Miguel Tejada into Cal Ripken Jr.; Tejada has started every game but one at third base for Baltimore since April 23. That’s 59 of 60 games and worth noting because Tejada is (A) 36 years old; and (B) hitting for a .307 wOBA. The O’s aren’t playing for a playoff spot … hell; they aren’t even playing for a crack at fourth place. What they are playing for is to mature some of the young talent and ensure the chance to take Anthony Rendon in next June’s draft.

Bell should get most of the starts at third as long as he’s around. The Orioles can always try him out in another corner if they really don’t see him as a major league caliber third baseman, but otherwise there’s no reason to trot Tejada out in the field only to have Bell DH. That plan simply doesn’t make sense for the present or the future.

Brad Lidge made his 14th appearance of the season last night. Coming off a disastrous 2009 season by any measure, Lidge’s 2010 has been pretty flawless. His ERA entering Tuesday was a shiny 3.27, his FIP sat nestled just above at 3.40, and his xFIP was a comfortable 2.65. Sure, he had given up some home runs, but at the end of the day, Lidge pitched as well as he ever had before.

Unfortunately, for fans of the Phillies and Lidge alike, Tuesday night brought back some night terrors. With the Phillies up 6-3 in the bottom of the ninth, Lidge entered and quickly disposed of Ramon Hernandez (on a groundout) and Drew Stubbs (on a strikeout). The Reds’ win expectancy at this point was 0.4%. Suggesting it was highly improbable that the Reds would come back, not to even ponder a victory. Then Brandon Phillips walked on five pitches … 1.4%; then he advanced on defensive indifference .. 1.5%. Orlando Cabrera hit a liner into left placing runners at the corners … 4.2%. And well, you know, Joey Votto came up and did what Joey Votto is wont to do: he homered, tied the game, and gave the Reds a 53.3% shot at winning.

As if that weren’t enough, though, Arthur Rhodes experienced a meltdown of his own versus the brunt of a lacking Phillies’ lineup. Ryan Howard doubled, Jayson Werth walked, Raul Ibanez doubled, and even Ben Francisco and Wilson Valdez got in on that act. Dane Sardinha and Juan Castro too batted in the inning. Yes, that Dane Sardinha.

I’m not willing to figure out the odds, but anytime two relievers with sub-3.5 xFIP compile nearly -1.000 combined WPA, it’s an occasion worth taking note of.

Of all the surprising stories this season, Matt Belisle’s rise to prominence takes the cake for least expected. The 30 year old reliever for Colorado has thrown 47 innings this season. That’s nothing extravagant; he did throw 31 innings for the Rockies last season after all. What is alarming is that he’s striking out more than one batter per inning; this from a guy who split duties between starting and relieving through most of his career and still has a career K/9 under 6.5.

Looking for a change in his pitch usage is futile. He’s throwing the same pitches at about the same rate as before, the results are just drastically improved with a heaping of added swinging strikes. Here are Belisle’s swinging strike rates this season on pitches he’s thrown more than 50 times:

FF: 9%
SL: 12.2%
CU: 16.3%

Here are the whiff rates for the same three pitches last season:

FF: 6.5%
SL: 7.7%
CU: 19.6%

Since it’s only his fastball and slider that have been affected this season, my guess, and this is clearly only a guess, is that it has something to do with sequencing. Luckily, we have the ability to easily check his pitch selection by count on his splits page. Sure enough, it seems Belisle is being far less aggressive with his fastball after getting ahead in the count.

That would seemingly be a common trend amongst pitches; after all, the mantra about establishing the fastball and all that jazz is still mentioned across quite a few telecasts on any given night; but it’s especially true for Belisle. When he gets to two strikes on a batter it’s time for the breaking stuff. On 1-2 counts he’s using his curveball nearly 50% of the time as opposed to using it only 22% last year.

Who knows whether the continued usage shakeup is the only reason or will continue to mystify hitters that oppose Belisle, but through this point in the season, he’s been pretty impressive.