Carl Crawford’s Best
When selecting an adjective to preface a player’s name, there are always a few ways to go. Take Carl Crawford. If kicking a little knowledge about his contract status is your thing, then go with “pending free agent.” If you’d rather kick it old school with his age, then hit the folks with a “28-year-old.” There’s always more obvious attributes to throw in front of Crawford’s name too, like “speedy” or “athletic,” but if you really want to accurately portray Crawford’s play this season, then “MVP candidate” might do the trick.
No, really. Justin Morneau leads the majors with 4.8 WAR and Robinson Cano is close behind at 4.5 WAR, but it’s Crawford who is in third with 4.2 WAR; no other major league batter is over 4, although Josh Hamilton and David Wright are a sneeze away. Crawford probably won’t surpass Morneau anytime this season, but he’s playing at a ridiculous pace. His best season came just last year as he finished with 5.5 wins. He’s more than three-fourths of the way there and the mid-season break isn’t for another week. That’s unfathomable.
Crawford’s wOBA is near .390 and his ISO nearing a career high. It’s not being buoyed by an increased amount of homers, though, as every year since 2005 has been held as the perspective year for Crawford’s first 20 homer campaign. It still hasn’t happened and may never happen; he’s projected to finish with 14 this year. On the basepaths Crawford offers success through excellent conditioning and various moves. He’s not quite Kobe Bryant on the baseline, since he doesn’t have a move as effective as a jab step, but he’s so well-conditioned and able to differentiate between pickoff move and honest movement towards the plate that it’s generally to a perfect throw when Crawford is caught.
It’s not just Crawford’s offense getting the job done either. He rocks his glove on the right side and yet has no issues with balls hit to either his glove side or arm side. Watching him for long enough in comparison to players without such blessed range make you appreciate that Crawford only dives when the ball is on the outer limit of human being physical limitations. The numbers reflect this too. Crawford’s 15.2 UZR figure puts him on a pace to eclipse his previous career high in yet another category. His UZR/150 is currently 32.1 which would top his 24.1 number in 2004.
Surpassing Ben Zobrist’s 2009 season for the best season in Rays’ history by WAR seems unlikely since Crawford has to remain on this pace. That result would be an ever so fitting parting gift if Crawford is indeed on his way elsewhere this off-season.
Preface that with “bittersweet”.
R.J. –
Crawford is great, but he doesn’t actually offer much in the way of success on the basepaths, especially when you take his pickoffs into account (so he doesn’t seem to differentiate those to well) and CS (both 6th in the league). Believe it or not, those nearly fully counter the worth of his 29 SB…
RJ- Great piece, but I’m going to pick a nit here:
“…as every year since 2005 has been held as the perspective year for Crawford’s first 20 homer campaign.”
I do believe you mean “prospective.”
At what point does he finally make the move to CF? I know his arm isn’t great, but he isn’t Juan Pierre either, and his range would really pay there.
If I remember correctly, Crawford refuses to play center – in addition to refusing to bat leadoff. It’s a shame on the former (good thing the Rays have Upton in center, who is also a pretty good fielder), not too big of a deal on the latter, since he usually bats second.
And I will absolutely scream if Crawford winds up playing for the Yankees.
Unfortunately, he’s already being fitted for pinstripes for his new home in the Bronx
Ugh !!!!!!!
That will only increase his value. He could become a 20+ HR hitter in Yankee Stadium.
If Johnny Damon can do it, why can’t he?
IF you;d been payign attention, you;d know that Brett Gardner has a 320 avg, 400 obp, 5 hr’s, and hte always excellent defense and steals number and steals %. That’s bad news for Crawford, who looks to be passed up for the likes of Cliff Lee. With Swisher Granderson, and Gardner, the Yankees have an OF with great speed, power, defense, patience, and contac, with everyone on the right side of 30. Did I mention it costs them under 20 mil for the whole OF?
Great point about his ISO versus ’06 is about even … I guess that HR/FB jump of over 50% from his previous high was a bit much to expect to be maintained. You did get me to see, though, how damn many of his increasing extra base hits become doubles (20 in ’06, 19 in just three months of ’10).
Oh, and one last tidbit about basestealing: His first five years typically showed around an 85 SB% rate, while the last three are around 78%. What’s interesting, though, is that the one early year it was lower than the four others while, at the same time, he set a still career high SPD score. This year, he got the second highest after years of decline, and yet there is also no correlation between speed and SB%. Curious …
The NYY wouldn’t rather have Crawford than Swisher? I know NYY operates on a small budget and all, but really.
If Crawford doesn’t go to NYY, he’ll go/stay with one of their competitors. Past history indicates that they likely will go after him.
Everyone likes Swish, but he ain’t Carl Crawford. I’m guessing ALL of the NYY pitchers would like to see Crawford, Granderson, Gardner roaming the green.
At the very least, NYY will get involved to drive up the price. Wait, NYY wasn’t interested in Teixeira either.
Sure, there’s an upgrade, but they don’t need him. The Yankees are gonna focus on what they need, and that is Cliff Lee. BTW, Swish will never be traded. He’s good, cheap, and a trade what cause humungous outrage among fans.
RJ –
Do you think this may be his peak year in terms of WAR. There has been a lot of talk about the effect of the Trops turf on his body, which leads me to think he could see some decline in his fielding and baserunning numbers. Also, his BABIP seem a bit high even for someone with his speed.
Looking at 2007 (when he had arguably his best offensive year), I don’t remember him having a such a tough time feilding. His UZR numbers that year seem like a huge outlier.