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Alex Gordon Demoted

I wrote that I did not understand the Royals’ perspective on the Juan Cruz release. Afterward, I found myself reading a few threads on Royals Review to attempt and gain that point of view. One of the comments suggested Carlos Rosa was not long for the organization since the team chose to promote also-rans like Bruce Chen and Brad Thompson over the promising arm. What was then amusing is now prophetic. Marc Hulet will have more on that move tomorrow, but the Royals didn’t stop tinkering with their young players there. Oh no, yesterday they decided to demote Alex Gordon to the minors.

On one hand, I’d like to praise the Royals for the move. Gordon had not started in three days despite the Royals facing two righties in that span. On Saturday night, he entered the game as a pinch runner for Billy Butler. I could not believe the move then and I still cannot. Suspend the curiosity as to whom the Royals were playing in his place and focus on the idea that the Royals had designated their 26-year-old third baseman with a career .328 wOBA to pinch running duties.

Rather than burning Gordon’s service and developmental time on the bench in favor of such wunderkinds as Alberto Callaspo and Chris Getz, the Royals decided Gordon would be best suited to get consistent playing time in the minors. That is logical. It’s even defensible if they really think Gordon is not their best option at third base (and completely ignore long-term gains) or if Gordon is suffering from an undisclosed ailment.

There’s no way of knowing the latter, but how about the former?

The Royals’ non-first base infield will now consist of Callaspo, Getz, Yuniesky Betancourt, Mike Aviles, and occasionally Willie Bloomquist. To his credit, Callaspo has hit the ball insanely well this season, entering Sunday’s contest batting .301/.347/.505 with a 0.88 BB/K ratio to boot. The same cannot be said for Gordon, who possesses a .299 wOBA with a .227 BABIP. That ranks him in the lower half of the Roayals’ lineup, but therein lays an issue: Gordon has hit well relative to the other infielders Betancourt (.298), Getz (.222), and Bloomquist (.193).

Betancourt is the Royals’ starter at shortstop, which excuses his weak efforts. Aviles is freshly back and can also play shortstop. That leaves Getz and, to a lesser degree, Bloomquist as the main opponents to Gordon’s roster spot. Getz is also 26 years old and a fringe starter with nice contact skills and some versatility. He’s absolutely a potentially useful bench player, but he’s not worth jettisoning Alex Gordon over and particularly not when Getz has an option remaining, too.

If it came down to a false dichotomy where it was Gordon or Getz, then 1) the Royals value some players on their roster far too much and 2) they made the wrong choice. Gordon may not be Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, or George Brett, but those players should not be the baseline comparison for Gordon. He’s produced 5 WAR in roughly 1,400 plate appearances. Butler has produced 3.4 WAR in 1,600 plate appearances. For some reason Butler is treated well while Gordon is the victim of a roster crunch.

Gordon has earned a spot on the Royals’ 25-man roster, but you know what, the Royals may not deserve him.


I’m Just Another Fool

The best take I’ve read about the Ryan Howard extension had nothing to do with win-to-dollar analysis or aging curve critiquing. Nope, it was Jonah Keri’s entry into the Howard content marathon. For full disclosure: I do consider Keri a friend and he is my editor elsewhere. Neither plays a role in my fandom over his piece. Keri’s article extends beyond the field. He nary mentions runs batted in or home runs hit. Instead he focuses on subjects like appealing to authority, open-mindedness, and the role Twitter plays in instant reaction.

Read the rest of this entry »


A Pair Using Whiffle Bats

Question: What does Chris Coghlan have in common with Juan Pierre?

Answer: Those are the only two qualified batters with a .000 ISO.

Seeing Pierre’s name associated with no extra base hits is probably not too surprising. Through 80 plate appearances, Pierre’s line is .222/.282/.222. His career ISO is .071 and his projected ISO is .063 (rest of the season version). Last night, he went 0-4 which lowers those totals. Coghlan is unexpected though. Thanks to continuing the power outage through last night, he set a new career high for consecutive games with at least one plate appearance and zero extra base hits (his previous high was 17).

Coghlan’s really been all kinds of awful to date. His wOBA was .182, with a .203 OBP and (obviously) no home runs. He’s not exactly a big bopper, but he did slam nine homers and 37 doubles/triples in his rookie season. Coghlan’s batting average on balls in play is pretty miserable too, but he’s hitting more than half of his batted balls on the ground which doesn’t translate to extra bases often.

Everyone is dying to know just how this streak of power ineptitude matches up with the rest of Pierre’s career. As it turns out, his career high is 46 games, which took place in 2000 as a member of the Colorado Rockies. He also abstained for 30 games in 2002 (again, Rockies) and more than 20 games four other times with three of those coming as a Dodger.

Without a doubt, the most amazing Pierre streak stretched from September of 2008 almost into May of 2009. He went 12 games without an extra base hit and still managed a line of .350/.381/.350. That’s the definition of being a slash and dash hitter.


Bryce Harper and Babe Ruth

I’m a little late on this, but regardless of timeliness, Kevin Goldstein did some reporting on Bryce Harper last week. Goldstein talked to a few scouts and … well; the reviews on Harper’s intangible qualities – which are wholly tangible when they need to be – are less than stellar. I don’t care to attempt and judge Harper or talk about what these opinions mean to his future. He’s a teenager with enough strength to hit baseballs 500 feet and wear David DeJesus on a chain around his neck. He’s also been on the cover of Sports Illustrated and on the lips (and fingertips) of every baseball draft analyst since last year. Excuse me for expecting nothing less than a sense of self pride.

What I do want to bring up, though, is something I ranted about recently elsewhere. Think about the definitive Babe Ruth tale. It’s the called shot, right? Everyone knows about Ruth’s called shot. It’s a signature moment and a piece of Americana folklore. There are many conflicting tales on what exactly took place on that day. Some say Ruth called his shot, others say he didn’t. Some say Ruth spent the day trading taunts with the Chicago Cubs’ dugout, others say he was just sticking up for a former teammate who wasn’t receiving his post-season share. A lot of hearsay. A lot of noise.

For the most part though, people seem to buy into the called shot being real. Perhaps we just want it to be real. But, isn’t calling a shot pretty selfish? One of the best players in baseball today can’t even trot across the back of the mound without it becoming a hot topic on every sports site, radio show, and television show for a week steady, imagine Ruth living in today’s world and pointing towards center. Now imagine him doing it during the World Series.

This isn’t supposed to be some scathing commentary on how we’ve come to expect a different set of standards from our athletes. It’s not even a commentary on Babe Ruth’s antics. It’s just odd and maybe a teeny bit hypocritical to recite that Ruth story with such vigor while treating Harper like a leper. It shows that if you hit a baseball far enough and well enough, then you can get away with anything on the field. And really, isn’t that probably the root of Harper’s issues already?


David Price Swallows Flames

When David Price was made the number one selection out of Vanderbilt, the comparisons for him were all over the place. The most obvious comparison – in size and tone – was CC Sabathia. Like the Yankees’ gentle and svelte ace, Price threw a high octane fastball and complemented the heat with a slider. Through yesterday, Price and Sabathia had a near equal fastball velocity. The only other southpaws comparable to the 93-94 MPH heat are Jon Lester, Francisco Liriano, and Brett Anderson.

Price is arguably the least accomplished of the quintet. What, with Sabathia and Lester being perennial Cy Young contenders and Liriano and Anderson having two of the better rookie seasons in recent pitching memory. Price made 23 starts and posted a 4.49 FIP in the tough American League East while struggling with his secondary stuff and – at times, especially early on – his control.

If he can pitch like he did on Sunday afternoon, he’ll fit right in. Against a rather weak lineup, Price struck out nine, walked one, allowed no runs, and completed his first career shutout. The Jays had Jose Molina, Mike McCoy, John McDonald, and Alex Gonzalez all playing, and with Adam Lind being a lefty, Price had a relatively easy go of things.

Price has altered his pitching this season. He’s no longer using the slider as his secondary pitch. Instead, he’s using that spike curve he picked up last season. He’s gained enough confidence in it to start batters of either hand off with it. He’s still hanging it a little too much for comfort, but Price’s fastball is so ethereal that hitters can’t sit on his curve. Put it this way. Roughly 13% of his four-seamers were whiffed on entering yesterday, while around 6% of his sliders and an additional 6% of his curves resulted in Wiimote-style empty swings.

Some would call that ‘learning to pitch’ while others would call it mixing his pitches better. Either way, the 2010 Price experience can be summed up in one at-bat. In his start against the New York Yankees, Price faced Curtis Granderson and worked him with a slider, curve, and fastball all within a three pitch sequence. The velocity readings were something like 75, 88, and 95. Totally unfair to Granderson.

His homer per fly ball rate is a little too low to sustain, but Price seems on his way to having a fine season.


Andruw Jones Is Alive

George Romero may have never considered the possibility of smiling zombies. The walking undead Andruw Jones is infectious with smiling, and he’s spreading the condition all around the Southside of Chicago. He’s burying the rough seasons spent with the Dodgers and Rangers and crunching into opposing pitchers to the tune of a .295/.415/.750 line, or a .499 wOBA.

Jones has hit six home runs while shifting between the outfield and designated hitting. About 30% of his balls in play are turning into hits, which is well above his career average of 27.6%. His ISO is an insane .455 thanks to a 37.5% HR/FB rate. Jones’ descent from one of the best players in baseball to one of the game’s biggest enigmas began with an increase in grounders hit. Right now, he’s hitting the ball on the ground a little under one-third of the time. That would be a career low if that mark somehow holds static through season’s end.

Jones is walking enough, striking out a lot, and hitting the ball in the air. Right now, that’s a successful formula, but heading forward I’m not so sure. He’s going to hit 20-25 homers playing within U.S. Cellular Field. He’s also not going to continue to hit near .300. It’s just not happening; he’s hit over .280 in a full season exactly once throughout his career.

ZiPS expects an above-average offensive output from the former defensive wunderkind. That seems about right. It’s not 2005. Jones is no longer the budding superstar, nor is he the notorious ball-hog of his younger days. He’s just an aging slugger using his bat to prop the casket lid open.


Royals Flush Juan Cruz

The Kansas City Royals are somewhat of a sabermetric whipping boy. Anytime they make a move, people expect the tone to be sardonic. I’m not being sarcastic or snarky whatsoever when I question the release of Juan Cruz. I just don’t get it.

When the Royals signed Cruz to a two-year deal worth six million in February 2009, it looked a heck of a lot smarter than their signing of Kyle Farnsworth. Cruz simply didn’t produce. His strikeout rates plummeted from double digits per nine to fewer than one per inning, and his walk rate remained above five. That combination is acceptable when Cruz is striking plenty of batters out, but now when the ratio drops to 1.31. Cruz wound up posting a 4.92 FIP in 50 innings.

So far this season, he’s appeared in five games, pitched five innings, and the strikeouts have been there. The walks have too, mind you, but his FIP to date is 2.66. Heck, even his ERA is a solid 3.38. Cruz’s velocity is slightly down – from 94 MPH to 93.2 – but I don’t see that as an issue. Ditto with his line drive rate is a ridiculously high 37.5% on a total of 16 batted balls.

Maybe he’s unhealthy, or maybe he’s a huge jerk. I don’t really know. It just seems like a very uncommon thing for a team to sour on a player this quickly when the team is known to make rash judgments on small sample sizes. If Cruz had an ERA of 10 I could see the Royals’ logic, even if I disagreed. This just comes across as odd.

On a related note: Bruce Chen and Brad Thompson are the two relievers the Royals chose to call up (Luis Mendoza was also designated for assignment). Carlos Rosa is confused.


Mark Buehrle and the Hall of Fame

Baseball has no time limit. Unlike every other major professional sport, the pacing and timing is wholly determined by the play on the field, particularly how quickly the starting pitchers work. This irritates some and tickles others who prefer the random allure of a four hour game on some mid-summer night Steve Trachsel pitched moderately well at times, but he was often as dormant on the mound as Mount Elephant.

Mark Buehrle is well-accomplished. He has a World Series ring. He’s thrown a no hitter. He even threw a perfect game that was preserved by one of the more miraculous catches in recent memory. There was that between-the-legs ball flip on opening day to take note of too. He’s also won 137 games in 305 starts while posting a career ERA around 3.8. Buehrle turned 31 in March, although his game is no more or less dependent on a blazing fastball as it was when he broke onto the scene in 2000.

Perhaps Buehrle is best-known for his fervent pace on the mound. To say Buehrle is a quick worker is careless. He pitches not like he has a plane or train to catch, but rather like he has a plane or train full of baseballs to pitch before he can leave. Last season, Buehrle’s 33 starts combined to total about 5,320 minutes – or 89 hours. That includes a monstrous three hour and 52 minute game against the Seattle Mariners in the middle of August that lasted 14 innings. Buerhle took part in 14 games that lasted 150 minutes or fewer and only six that lasted longer than 180. Joe West must adore him.

Buehrle works incredibly diligently. He doesn’t tromp around the mound or indulge himself in heavy meditation sessions between pitches. He fires, receives, and fires again. He pitches briskly like most do in The Show video games. Which is a double-edged sword. See, Buehrle makes the viewing experience enjoyable, but he also reduces the amount of time allowed to fully digest his abilities and performances.

He’ll top the 2,100 inning mark in one of his next two or three starts and he should break 2,200 innings for his career by season’s end. With the exception of his horrible 2006 season, Buehrle has posted a FIP no higher than 4.46 throughout his career, and 2005’s 5.27 figure undoubtedly skews his career 4.17 FIP higher than the rest of his career would suggest.

During the opening day chat, Dave Cameron suggested Buehrle is on his way towards the Hall of Fame and that position is hard to make an argument against. Rally’s WAR currently has Buehrle at 138th overall. Just behind a few Hall of Famers, like Dizzy Dean and Rich Gossage (he’s actually in a dead-heat with Roy Oswalt at this point). With a four win season Buehrle will jump to 106th all time. With another next season he’ll be around 82nd (or where Roy Halladay and Jamie Moyer sit right now). With yet another, Buerhle enters a stretch where seemingly every other pitcher listed is in the Hall of Fame.

45 of the 75 pitchers with at least 50 WAR are Hall of Famers, and others – like Roger Clemens, like Greg Maddux, like Randy Johnson, like Pedro Martinez, perhaps Mike Mussina and Bert Blyleven, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, and John Smoltz – could be in the Hall by the time Buehrle calls it a day too. Making that tally something like 54 of 75 – or nearly three-fourths.

Sportswriters who are members of the BBWAA will probably not be using WAR while filling out their ballots, but by factoring in memorable moments and market size, Buehrle’s odds seemingly rise. Of course, this could all fall by the wayside if Buehrle gets injured. Or if he decides that enough is enough. Or if he becomes ineffective. Or whatever.

I do hope he makes it to Cooperstown one day, though. And I hope his induction speech is the longest in recent memory. He’s saved enough time to make up for it.


Mitchell Boggs and Other Pen Randoms

Mitchell Boggs STL

With his next inning pitched, Boggs will record his 100th MLB inning. That should be an exciting, if ultimately irrelevant round number achievement. Boggs was previously a starter within the Cards’ system, but after 200 innings in Triple-A and a mediocre 1.78 SO/BB ratio, he was placed into the bullpen last season. Boggs made seven appearances, striking out 11 batters in 9 and two-thirds innings while walking eight. In 2010 he’s spent the entire season in the pen, and something expected is happening — well, besides his average fastball velocity increasing; to 95 from 92 MPH – he’s showing better control as a reliever than he did as a starter. He’s only walked three batters in seven innings, and while it’s far too early to say whether that’s going to be his ratio all season, we should expect an improvement on control simply from Boggs becoming a full-time reliever.

Jesse Chavez ATL

Few middle relievers received more attention last winter than Chavez. He began the off-season with the Pirates and was sent packing to the Rays in exchange for Akinori Iwamura. Weeks later, the Rays would turn around and trade him to the Braves for Rafael Soriano. Not too shabby of company for the guy with a career FIP over 4.5. Atlanta has used Chavez in low-leverage spots so far, and he’s responded strikingly well by posting 1.29 FIP in six innings with a 16.3% whiff rate. Obviously that kind of success is highly unlikely to sustain, still though, not a bad way to keep his name in the public consciousness.

The Diamondbacks’ Pen

It’s never a good sign when you have this many relievers with negative WPA this early in the season:

Chad Qualls -1.11
Blaine Boyer -0.74
Juan Gutierrez -0.66
Aaron Heilman -0.47

It might not come as a surprise that the D-Backs’ relief corps has the worst unit ERA and FIP in the league (7.21 and 5.98 respectively). There’s plenty of season left guys, save some of those blown leads for then too.

Carlos Monasterios LAD

Actually, there’s nothing in Monasterios’ performance worth pointing out. He’s just got a great name.


Three Posts in One

I’ve been toying with a few posts for the last day or two, and frankly, I just could not give any of these full-post treatment. Instead, here are all three at once for your consumption.

Bruiser ‘Brook

Jake Westbrook missed all of the 2009 season minus nine minor league innings and only served the Indians with 34 innings in 2008. He’s back. Unfortunately, he forgot to pack something. Namely his control. In three outings, Westbrook has walked 10 batters (none intentionally) and hit four batters – two in each of his first two starts.

Westbrook is no stranger to plunking batters – he average seven per season from 2003-2007 – but that mark leads the league. Amusingly, another starter returning from injury – Rich Harden – also has four with a lot of walks.

The Mariners infielder switcharoo

When Seattle decided to flip Chone Figgins and Jose Lopez, one of the theories was that they wanted the better fielder to get more opportunities on batted balls. Well, that’s worked so far … if Lopez is who they consider the better fielder. It’s early, but Lopez has seen 41 balls in his zone (making plays on 35) and Figgins has only seen 29 (making plays on 26). It’s early, so the numbers don’t mean too much, but Figgins has also made seven fewer out of zone plays than Lopez.

The Boston marathon

You knew this already. Nobody, but nobody, respects the ability of either Jason Varitek or Victor Martinez to throw a runner out. Call the tandem Defensive Indifference, because it’s almost unfair that Carl Crawford is going to be padding his stolen base figures against this group all season. Check out the leaderboards under steals allowed and you’ll find:

Tim Wakefield 10
Josh Beckett 6
Jon Lester 5

Running on the elder knuckleballer is a given, but the other two? Beckett has a combined 36 against him the past three seasons. He’s on a decisively worse path this season. Lester, meanwhile, actually had 19 steals against him last season, but only 21 in his other 59 career starts. Even John Lackey has allowed two steals. This unit is some kind of bad at throwing out runners.