Today’s three targets share two things in common: 1) each is a centerfielder, and 2) each stands shorter than 6′. They are Rajai Davis, Tony Gwynn (Jr.), and Brett Gardner.

Here’s a random thought about each.

Here’s a fun fact to show anyone that thinks Billy Beane holds the same thoughts as he did in Moneyball: Davis has attempted 84 steals in the last two seasons. In 2002, the A’s attempted 66… as a team.

The most annoying aspect about Gwynn is that the FanGraphs linker tool doesn’t know whether I mean him or his father. Argh.

Raise your hand if you had Gardner outlasting Melky Cabrera in the Bronx three years ago. Yep, this is why rosterbating years in advance often leads to blindness.

When the 2010 season opens, the Angels bullpen will look almost nothing like its 2009 version. The addition of Fernando Rodney and subtraction of Jose Arredondo guaranteed it. Darren Oliver and Kelvim Escobar departing just changes the extent. Both of the deals came over the past week; let’s focus on Oliver first.

For years Oliver has been entrapped in a bubble. Oliver annually gaining Type-A status and declining arbitration meant that a new suitor for his services would have to give up at least a second round pick or a first if the team was choosing in the latter half of the round. Tony Reagins must adore Oliver, because he set him free this year and Oliver rewards the act by signing with perhaps the Angels’ fiercest division competitor, the Rangers. Despite his age (39), Oliver has appeared in at least 50 games each of the last three seasons and has xFIP of 3.92, 4.15, and 4.43 over that time. He misses some bats and can get batters of either hand out. The deal is worth $3.5M and there’s a strong chance he earns it.

Escobar’s deal with the Mets is worth a base salary of $1.25M, and he’ll make roughly $1.5M if he starts the season on the 25 man roster. There’s an additional $2M in incentives based on appearances and a million more based on finishes which seems unlikely, barring injury to Francisco Rodriguez. Over the last two seasons, Escobar has appeared in exactly one Major League game, which raises some questions as to why any team would want him. Well, it’s simple: he’s a pretty good pitcher when healthy. His xFIP since 2002 is a tick over 4.00 despite spending his entire time in the American League and appearing mostly as a starter. The incentives are a win/win for New York. Either Escobar stays healthy and productive, hence appearing in 35+ games, or he bombs and Jerry Manuel has incentive to not use him. If the latter happens, pray for Pedro Feliciano’s well-being.

In 1999, Sammy Sosa recorded 416 outfield chances, which were the second most in the National League. Sosa’s placement is not significant because of the fact that he is a right fielder, although he was the lone comer outfielder in the top six, and its significance is not because of his reputation as a horrid defender. In fact, the real significance has little to do with Sosa and more to do with his 416 chances. First place that year was a 22-year-old centerfielder by the name of Andruw Jones, who wound up with 101 more chances than Sosa.

Jones gained a ball hog label (as discussed in passing throughout this thread) that was evidently just. Although, if it helps him any, the second most in the majors was another 22-year-old centerfielder by the name of Carlos Beltran, who finished with 422 chances. Flash forward to 2009 and not a single outfielder finished with more than 500 chances and only one finished with more than 450. Those familiar with outstanding seasons in defensive play are probably well aware of who said player is, but let’s just say he causes Death to Flying Things. Only one other outfielder has managed more than 450 since 2005: Carlos Gomez in 2008.

This got me to wondering if any of the outfielders this year, even on teams with less fly ball-orientated pitchers, came anywhere close to matching Jones’ ridiculous 45% taken of all team outfield chances. I took each of the outfielders with at least 300 chances (35 in total) and found out how many of their team’s chances each took. This adjusts for team rather than looking at the raw number. Obviously, this is a more telling number because Seattle leads the league in outfield chances and St. Louis is last. The spread is almost 300 chances exactly, which is a pretty decent gap.

As it turns out, Matt Kemp and Michael Bourn were the only players somewhat close to 40% usage rates – to steal a phrase from a basketball metric . Meanwhile, Franklin Gutierrez was still high on the list – as was Mike Cameron – but after that only Vernon Wells topped 35%. Below I’ve included the top 15 – which just so happens to be everyone over 30% usage – but there doesn’t seem to be anything unusual that sticks out besides the placement of two Houston outfielders within the top 10. Alexis Rios is listed as a Blue Jay because he spent most of the season with them.

All data courtesy of Baseball-Reference

The sense of mystery exists no matter how many times one experiences a zero-to-zero score after the third inning. Six regulation innings are left and, sometime between then and now, someone is going to break across. It sounds ridiculous because there are probably hundreds of occurrences of a scoreless game after three innings throughout a season, but it felt like it occurred every time Roy Halladay pitched against the Rays.

Halladay pitched against the Rays six times last season and 34 times throughout his career with Toronto, which is unsurprisingly the third most of his career against any one team. The “story” metrics have him at 12-11 with a 3.67 ERA and four complete games, but never a shutout. Of those six starts in 2009, the scores after three were as follows: 1-0, 1-0, 2-2, 0-5, 3-6, and 2-0. Clearly, factual evidence is not a bedmate of nostalgia.

Nevertheless, two of the most memorable games from the season came from Halladay matchups, the first of which being an early July Thursday matinee where young David Price faced off against Doc. The rumors of a trade were well saturated by this point, but it seemed to affect Halladay not in the least. His final line told of seven innings, zero walks, eight strikeouts, and three earned runs.

The next game came nearly two weeks to the day as Halladay hosted Matt Garza a week before the trade deadline. Both pitchers went nine innings and Garza not only held his own, but showed the potential to be Halladay. He struck out a batter per inning and allowed not a single walk or homer. Halladay would make one pitch fewer despite facing three additional batters. Still, it was the Rays who came out on top at the end.

These games are completely irrelevant to the reader as most have their own memories of Halladay. I should be thrilled. No longer will he reside in the division, poaching divisional victories in those four or five starts. No longer will his scruffy beard have its own close-up approximately a thousand times per outing. No longer will I be jealous of his efficiency and delicate approach to pitching — by getting ahead and relentlessly pounding the zone until the batter grounded out weakly. But I’m not too joyous, because it means no longer will I be regularly exposed to one of the best pitchers of this generation.

Thanks for the memories Roy, now go make some for fans of NL teams.

This is experimental and I’m not entirely sure I like the formatting, but here we go anyways. Regardless, the chart below shows the collective first base wRAA and UZR for each team. The color scale (greener is good, redder is bad) applied to each column shows their respective standings relative to the rest of the league. For instance, the Cubs and – no shocker here – Padres have strong first base play in both offense and defensive respects, while teams like the Athletics and Diamondbacks could really use an upgrade. I used wRAA instead of wOBA so the run values of each would be present (and represented in the Total category) rather than making everyone translate the wOBA to runs and figure things out from there.

Now obviously, we’re talking about acquiring Adrian Gonzalez – who was a large part of what looks to be the fourth best first base production in baseball last season. This chart is hardly foretelling of true talent levels, contractual and budget status, farm system depth, and placement on the win curve. Luckily, we can break this down easy enough by using tiers.

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Baltimore may not be thought of as the class of the AL East, but that’s not stopping them from making some additions. Last week they dealt reliever Chris Ray for starter Kevin Millwood and now it appears likely that Mike Gonzalez will join the fray on a two-year deal worth at least $12M and up to as much as $16M. The deal is currently contingent on Gonzalez passing a physical – usually a given, although as we witnessed with Brett Wallace, not always without blips.

Gonzalez is a lefty with a low-to-mid-90s fastball and ridiculous slider. His fastball has some riding action in to left-handed batters, but only resulted in 8% swinging strikes. The slider, though, that’s the money pitch. He threw it 423 times last season and 17.1% resulted in empty swings. He occasionally tosses a non-fastball/slider, but those are his bread and butter. Above average strikeout rates are nothing new for the 31-year-old. Since coming over to Atlanta his walks have been kept in check as well. That means the only question is whether he can remain healthy.

Bobby Cox rode Gonzalez pretty tough this season; using him in a career high 80 games (previous high: 54) as he pitched 74.1 innings (54) and threw 1,307 pitches. This from a guy who threw just over 1,830 pitches in the previous three seasons combined – most of which he missed with injuries. As for the money itself, it’s no slam dunk. Gonzalez has never been worth $6M in free agent dollars throughout his career and while he should receive a boost from increased leverage, I guess I’m more concerned about Gonzalez’ health than anything. Factor in the loss of next year’s second round pick and I’m not sure I completely approve of giving decent – not great, mind you – cash to a injury prone reliever coming off his heaviest workload.

Gonzalez figures to be the Orioles’ closer which raises the question: do the Orioles really need a closer? There’s some nice talent in Baltimore, and sure, they have the cash, so why not, right? Plus, there’s an outside chance the Orioles could really make a run in 2011, which would make all of this butter.

Make sure to add your projection for Gonzalez in 2010 here.

In other news, Brandon Lyon has the best agent in baseball.

Today’s projections involve a little alliteration: Carl Pavano, Juan Pierre, and Nick Punto.

Pavano, of course, returned to the Twins after slyly testing the free agent waters.

Pierre was traded to the Chicago White Sox yesterday, where he figures to play center and bat near the top of the order.

Finally, Punto. Because why not?

Of all the potential landing spots for Hideki Matsui, the Angels seemed unlikely. As one of the teams with wallets thick enough to afford a Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, their willingness to bow out and settle on Matsui seems fairly odd. The money (one-year, $6.5M) is similar to the deal signed by Bobby Abreu last off-season but the circumstances vary wildly. Nevertheless, the Angels have their replacement for Vladimir Guerrero.

Matsui will turn 36 in mid-June and bats from the left side of the plate. Over the last three seasons he’s posted wOBA of .368, .348, and .378. That 2009 mark wouldn’t seem the least bit suspicious if not for a .235 ISO. That marks a career best from Matsui and it happens to come the year he spent in the Yankees new wind-aided launching pad. The odds of him repeating such a display of pop are unlikely. Without adjusting for park, league, or age, a 5-4-3-2 regression has Matsui with a wOBA around .360 next year. That looks remarkably like a projection for Abreu and it’s an upgrade over Vlad’s 2009.

There are hints that Matsui will get a chance to play the field occasionally. That’s not going to cost the Angels much in terms of runs unless he’s playing the field quite often, which is something he did not at all in 2009. The more pressing concern might be health-related. Matsui has had some issues in the past staying healthy and their starters wouldn’t appear to be the most reliable options either. Barring some new additions, the Angels are looking at a starting outfield of Abreu (36), Torii Hunter (34), and Juan Rivera (31). I can’t think of too many outfields currently in place with an average age of 34 years as of late outside of the 2004 Giants and 2001 Yankees.

I’m not saying age is going to guarantee injury or that Abreu will lose a limb sometime soon, it’s just peculiar that the Angels went this route with their history of making a splash on the market and the chance to get younger.

As it turns out, Cliff Lee’s tour and demolition of the National League will be put on hold, at least through the 2010 season. If the blockbuster involving Roy Halladay, the Phillies, and the Mariners occurs, Lee is rumored to be on the move for the second time in six months, this time to the Pacific Northwest.

Seattle has no shortage of mid– and back-end starters currently piled behind Felix Hernandez in their rotation. Brandon Morrow has some potential, as do Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ian Snell, but pitchers like Doug Fister and Jason Vargas are what you think they are. Unlike the failed Erik Bedard experiment, which was doomed thanks to injuries, Lee has thrown more than 200 innings in four of his last five seasons. His xFIP over the last two seasons have been 3.57 and 3.69, his groundball rate has sat above 40% while his fly balls are below 40%, and oh yeah, he’s left-handed.

Lee throws a variety of pitches. A four and two-seamer, neither of which gets much in the way of whiffs but both are thrown nearly 70% of the time for strikes. A change-up that misses bats and hits the zone, a slider which does the same, and a lesser used curve that – you guessed it – follows a similar pattern. Lee throws strikes and walks few. His modest strikeout rates are boosted by such efficiency and a move back to the American League means he probably won’t post a 3.2 xFIP moving forward, but his ERA should shine in front of the Seattle defense and in Safeco.

We aren’t sure exactly what Seattle will give up yet. Hopefully we find out soon enough. What we do know is that Lee has posted back-to-back seasons with more than 6 WAR and seems destined to repeat once more barring injury. The Fans currently have Lee at 6.1 WAR, and you can contribute your vote (if you haven’t already) by clicking here.

Earlier today, the Boston Red Sox signed John Lackey to a big contract. The act was taken as a signal that Theo Epstein and crew had moved on from signing Jason Bay. Word later arrived that they were no longer chasing Matt Holliday. Naturally this lead to questions. Mostly, “Well, who the heck plays left field?” Tonight, Boston answered that question by signing Mike Cameron to a two-year deal, reportedly worth roughly $15.5M.

Dave actually covered the Cameron versus Bay angle here, surmising that Cameron, not Bay, was the better alternative to Holliday. Their games differ greatly, and this isn’t going to be a rehashing of that post, but no matter where Boston chooses to play Cameron, he’s going to upgrade their defense immensely. The most ridiculous aspect of this deal is the contract. Last season, Cameron made $10M, the season before he made over $6M, and in the three years prior over $7M. The Red Sox, a team with the ability to overpay, just got him for an annual average cost under $8M. Over the last few years his free agent value has averaged more than $14M. So yeah, I’d say the Sox are getting their money’s worth on paper.

UZR paints a fuzzy picture of Jacoby Ellsbury’s defensive talents. One that’s not entirely reliable. Most scouting reports suggest Ellsbury has above-average speed and range and the Fans Scouting Report seemed to support those notions. Nevertheless, Cameron has been and probably will be superior next season. Boston’s choice is now whether to shift the youngster to left or put the veteran out to learn the Monster. They must also decide whether they want Jeremy Hermida to platoon with Cameron, and face paying a hefty price for a few hundred plate appearances.