Two notable free agent second basemen were not tendered arbitration offers by their incumbent teams yesterday. Orlando Hudson stole most of the headlines, but Placido Polanco might be the more interesting of the duo, in part because a poor offensive season could lead to him being underrated by most observers.

Polanco turned 34 a few weeks back and posted his lowest batting average since 1999. Coincidentally, he also encountered a BABIP that falls well below his career norms. Outside of that, Polanco was the same batter as his 2008 self. His walk rate in 2008 was 5.7%; 5.5% in 2009. He posted 7.4% strikeouts in both seasons and ISO of .110 and .112. He hit 0.4% more homers per fly balls in 2009, as well. Literally the only difference between the seasons is a deflated average on balls in play. Regardless, his full season offensive run totals varied by nearly 11 runs.

With the glove, Polanco’s defense has always ranged from solid-to-spectacular. It’s a wee bit optimistic to expect a +10 season from him next year, but even with some age-based regression thrown in, he’s a plus defender at a premium defensive position. Combine that with his offensive skills and you’re looking at least a 3 win player with the potential for a little more.

Last off-season featured a rather drab free agent market for second basemen. Orlando Hudson and Felipe Lopez turned out to be the most worthwhile signings while Aaron Miles and Nick Punto were the lone recipients of multiple-year deals: both signed two-year contracts. In 2007, Luis Castillo and Kazuo Matsui signed the last deals of at least three seasons in length. I don’t know if he will, but Polanco seems like as good of option as anyone to break that streak.

Have an idea of how Polanco will perform in 2010? Let it be known by casting your Fan Projection ballot here.

Tonight may bring with it the deadline for free agent arbitration tenders, but the Phillies needed not to wait in order to ink their man. Brian Schneider spent the past two seasons with the Mets, struggling with multiple injuries that would be especially detrimental to catchers (i.e. back and knee), and as a result not being ranked by Elias. Regardless of such concerns, the Phillies completed a two-year deal with Carlos Ruiz’ new back-up and the contract will call for Schneider to earn $1.25M this season and $1.5M next.

Schneider isn’t much of a batter. Over the last three seasons he’s collected 1,055 plate appearances and a .672 OPS. His best offensive ability – perhaps the only – is that he’ll draw some walks when he plays. He’s no Gregg Zaun, though. Defensively, our very own Matt Klaasen found that Schneider was one of the dozen best at the catching aspects we can quantify. He’s especially good at preventing wild pitches and blocking potential passed balls.

Schneider should be worth his money, although the injuries make the inclusion of a second year a wee bit questionable on the Phils’ part.

Coincidentally, a former Phillies reserve catcher has landed with the Mets. Chris Coste, best known for his book about being an elder rookie, signed a contract with the Mets yesterday. It seems a bit early to give a 40-man spot to someone who appears to be a pretty common commodity, but Omar Minaya also agreed to give Alex Cora an annual $2M contract rather than spending that on potentially useful minor league depth or draft picks.

Let’s talk a bit more about what makes the Fan Projections different from those that Rally, Dan Szymborski, and Tango Tiger have and will continue to produce.

The most obvious difference is the amount of math involved. Frankly, we’re not requiring any. There’s no need to copy, paste, and weigh each season like these are your personal Marcels. Now, if that method is the most comfortable in your estimation, then sure, do as you please. Most will probably do a little eyeballing and nudge those up or down based on personal knowledge, anecdotal evidence, or just pure gut feelings.

For instance, yesterday I began filling out my Rays projections and up popped B.J. Upton’s name. Everyone – well, those who read that other site I’m on most of the time – knows about my fandom of Upton. I find him to be a fantastic talent with immense upside. The problem being A) how is his shoulder health and B) how much of the potential is left? He’s already a solid player, but after his 2007 the talk about him becoming a 30/30 producer has been left unfulfilled.

This all came to a head when I reached the home runs drop down. Upton hit 24 homers as a 22-year-old and has hit 20 since. The numbers said … well, I didn’t know what they said. I really, really wanted to go 20+. He has the quick wrists as everyone saw in the 2008 post-season. But then again, potential isn’t static and pitchers figured out how to pitch to his weaknesses last year.

To truncate this process which is probably interesting to no one, I chose 15-19 after a good three or four minutes of internal debate. All of these factors came into play. I added the scouting observations, subtracted the health concerns, and did math without really doing math. Only afterwards did I run the 5-4-3 weighting to find 13-14 homers as the average. Not a huge difference all told, but I think most people are going to have small conflicts like this throughout the process.

Ultimately, the resolutions will guide the final projections. Remember, we’re not asking you to submit the ZiPS, CHONE, or Marcels projections for these players. If we wanted that, we would consult with them. We want everyone to vote as they wish and if that means being a little optimistic or pessimistic about certain players, then so be it. Just remember, your ballot won’t be ditched if you disagree with CHONE.

White Sox sign OF Andruw Jones for $500K

Jones’ 2009 season was hardly as well publicized as his 2008 voyage through the depths of offensive hell, but he managed a decent bounce back in 331 plate appearances. 17 homers were hit, a .323 OBP was had, and Jones nearly had a higher slugging percentage (.459) than his 2008 OPS (.505). As for 2010, the deal is a coup for Ken Williams. Jones flashed his highest ISO since 2006 and while playing in Arlington artificially enhanced those numbers, it’s still encouraging to see his HR/FB and ability to drive the ball seemingly regress towards normal. Despite that iffy contribution in 2008 Jones is fully capable of producing league average offense — and perhaps better if he plays mostly against southpaws.

Jones’ athleticism has dipped considerably, but it seems unlikely that his defensive ability has become so poor, so quickly that he wouldn’t be worth at least the half a million in 2010. If he does perform, the deal includes roughly a million in performance incentives, and Jones will be owed whatever amount shy of $3.2M remains. He’s not going broke because of this deal. Frank McCourt, on the other hand, has to be tickled. The worst case here is Jones being released after a slow start to the season. Even then, it’s only $500K; Mark Kotsay is making double that next year.

Phillies sign DeWayne Wise to a minor league deal

The man who Jones somewhat replaces also found a new home before the holidays. Wise is best known for his ridiculous catch to preserve a perfect game last year. Presumably Wise will find some time on the Phillies’ bench throughout the long season.

A’s sign 3B Dallas McPherson to a minor league deal

Amidst rumors of a potential Jack Cust departure, it seems only right that Billy Beane goes out and inks the now 29-year-old McPherson. The big lefty has always butchered Triple-A pitching, but has serious issues with strikeouts and health. In fact he missed the entire 2009 season because of his back. If McPherson can stay healthy and allow his power to flourish by making more contact he could be a very nice addition to the A’s. For some reason I feel like that same sentence will have home to McPherson’s next signing too.

Red Sox trade a player to be named later to the Royals for INF Tug Hulett

In a deal reminiscent of the olden A’s/Rays swaps that eventually lead to the Rays refusing to trade with Beane, here we have two front offices on opposite ends of the perceived spectrum making a little swap. Jeff Sullivan polled his readers to see whether the psychology of a player being acquired by the Red Sox from the Royals changed their opinion of the player’s worth and nearly 30% confirmed that it did. Hulett is what he’s always been: a short southpaw-batting utility infielder with on-base skills and questionable defensive abilities. Hulett will likely see the majors next year in a similar capacity to Gil Velasquez last season and the projected role of Nick Green before poor luck launched him into the lineup this season.

Padres claim Radhames Liz off waivers from the Orioles

It wasn’t long ago that Liz was a highly thought of prospect with tantalizing velocity, but the Orioles are no longer pitching-prospect starved and Liz spent most of the year in the minor league bullpens when he pitched. His ERA in the minors were rough, but at the same time, his FIP was solid. In 110 innings with the Orioles since 2007 he had an issue with walks and showed fly ball tendencies. Fringe hard-throwing airball lover, meet Petco; Petco, meet Liz.

One of the upsides of downtime during the off-season is the freedom it allows for one to stumble upon tidbits and performances he missed throughout the season. Consider this one: Derrek Lee had a .412 wOBA last season. I’m ashamed to admit I missed out on it. Oh, I saw his name on the WAR leaderboards, skimmed the 35 home runs, and caught a dozen or so Cubs games throughout the season, but for whatever reason my mind’s Shamwow didn’t work on Lee’s .306/.393/.579 slash line.

That doesn’t compare to his magical 2005 season in which he posted a.446 wOBA and .335/.418/.662, but hey, that season was probably one of the best non-Pujols/Bonds/Rodriguez offensive seasons we’ve seen over the last decade. Back to his 2009, the only number that really stands out as a bit of a fluke is his increased HR/FB and even that isn’t too far out of his career norm. Lee’s ISO went through the roof and that twin-killing bug he caught during 2008 (27 GIDP) left his system abruptly. In fact, his 2007 and 2009 season totals add up to 27 GIDP, which tells you how odd last year really was.

Lee turns 35 during next season and sees his contract expire at season’s end. He’s still a capable first baseman and it’ll be interesting to see where he lands if the Cubs don’t work towards an extension. Maybe it’s time for me to make use of the “My Team” function on here.

While doing some recent fiddling with data, I ran across something mildly interesting: the Red Sox’s offense is highly consistent. To be honest, this collection was for a Rays-related piece on teams with similar wOBA and how they performed when factoring in other variables like stolen base attempts, strikeouts, and ISO. The Red Sox entries had mostly one thing in common as you can see here:

2009 .352
2008 .352
2007 .352
2006 .340
2005 .352

Four of five years the crew from Boston produced identical wOBA. Now they didn’t post the same peripherals across the board – i.e. some years they had more steals while others they had more power – but as best as I can tell, this is the most consistent lineup in the league on a wOBA basis. It hasn’t been the same lineup year in and year out, either: below are the nine players each season who received the most plate appearances.

All told Ortiz and Varitek are the last men standing from the 2005 squad, and even their expiration dates appear to be approaching. Some tidbits from the teams and their differences:

In 2005, they stole 45 bases. That number has steadily increased each year and hit 126 this season.

Their highest BABIP of the four matching seasons came in 2008 and their lowest n 2009. I’m not sure what to make of that.

Their walk rates have been extremely static. In order from most recent; 10.6%, 10.3%, 11%, 10.7%, 10.4%. Same can be said for their strikeout rates, again in order from most recent; 20.2%, 19.1%, 18.6%, 18.8%, 18.6%. ISO, not as much; .184, .168, .165, .166, .174.

If multiple reports from Friday come to fruition, the Chicago White Sox will make the first major league signing of the free agency period by adding infielder Omar Vizquel. Terms are unavailable; however, given Vizquel’s modest one-year for $1M contract last season, it seems unlikely that Kenny Williams is breaking the bank on the 42-year-old who turns 43 in late April.

In limited action as Elvis Andrus’ mentor, Vizquel actually hit fairly well by his standards. In 195 plate appearances he batted .266/.316/.345 and possessed a .301 wOBA. That’s an accomplishment considering he hadn’t topped .300 for a full season since 2006. Clearly Vizquel isn’t in baseball because of his lackluster bat, but instead because of his well-earned reputation as a defensive virtuoso.

Vizquel’s UZR/150 the last three years at shortstop rate as “fantastic”, “great”, and “historical”, which is probably a bit optimistic and scrambled by small sample sizes in the previous two seasons. The Fans Scouting Report showed that 15 voters thought highly of him, though, and Dewan’s +/- says he’s saved about 25 runs the past three years at short. It’s hard to get a good read on just how much another year will affect Vizquel’s range and other defensive capabilities. It seems completely plausible that with enough playing time he could be a well-above average defender but, at the same time, completely ludicrous. I’ll stay conservative and say above average, albeit to a lesser degree than +10. Maybe in the 5 < x < 10 range. The White Sox’s infield situation was already intriguing, with Gordon Beckham changing positions and Alexei Ramirez sitting around. Throw in probably the best defensive shortstop over the last decade and it would seem tempting to either shift Ramirez to second base and leave Beckham at third, or put Ramirez at third with Vizquel and Beckham up the middle. There’s also the possibility of having Vizquel simply play third base as he did with the Rangers last season. Of course there’s also Mark Teahen and … well, Ozzie Guillen can’t complain about a lack of infield options next year, now can he?

Note: This is not in defense of Keith Law’s voting order. Please don’t confuse it as such because my points have little to do with how Javier Vazquez or Chris Carpenter pitched in comparison to each other throughout 2009.

Let’s get this out of the way before someone spoils it in the comments: I am a fan of Law. I do not always agree with his analysis but I find his takes interesting and usually thought-provoking if nothing else. The same can be said for Dave Cameron, Sky Kalkman, Rob Neyer, Tom Tango, and whomever else. Law and I have exchanged some emails over the years. He’s always been personable and honest. With that said, none of it comes into play with what I’m writing here.

Law made a decision on his National League Cy Young ballot that has blown up into something ridiculous. You have fellow BBWAA writers taking shots at him (after breaking BBWAA creeds by announcing the winners early themselves), you have at least one crazed Missourian searching for his home address, and there’s just a general sense of distaste for someone who didn’t make that big of a transgression on his ballot no matter what you use to judge pitchers.

Let’s consider a few things:

1. Keith Law worked in a front office.

Whatever you think of his job there or his credentials to land that job, he does have that experience. This doesn’t mean he’s automatically correct. What it does – or rather, what it would mean – if he (hypothetically) chose Rick Porcello for rookie of the year is that some of these people slamming him for the Cy Young pick would use his opinion in their arguments as an appeal to authority. “Oh, so you’re saying you with your fancy FIP are smarter than a former assistant GM? Hah, right.”

2. Other, less defensible, voting choices

Law’s perceived gaffe:

Name	Wins	IP	ERA	FIP
Vaz	15	219.1	2.87	2.77
Carp	17	192.2	2.24	2.78

The real mistake of the voting process:

Name	        W	IP	ERA	FIP
Greinke	        16	229.1	2.16	2.33
Verlander	19	240	3.45	2.80
Hernandez	19	238.2	2.49	3.09

Someone voted Justin Verlander first over Greinke and Hernandez. If everyone is going insane and willing to burn Law at the stake for taking Vazquez’s 0.6 runs higher ERA then pass the tar and feathers and let’s get the sucker who voted Verlander first. Verlander is the same guy with an ERA nearly a full run higher than Hernandez and nearly a run and a half higher than Greinke. Can anyone tell me who made that vote, because I haven’t seen it anywhere, but go to Jon Heyman’s twitter feed and you’ll find quite a few Law quips.

3. Bias

The Law backlash isn’t merely from his vote. He’s a snarky internet writer and some perceive him as a holier than thou critic with a God complex. Even if you do think of Law in that capacity, why is he the martyr for supposedly “dumb” voting decisions? I am by no means a BBWAA awards historian, but using Baseball-Reference and Google I found two decisions that reek of far more incompetence than any ballot Law could create using the top four choices. Last year Brad Lidge and Francisco Rodriguez received first place MVP votes. Lidge actually received two. CC Sabathia received zero NL MVP votes. Let’s compare their numbers:

Sabathia (NL only): 130.2 IP, 1.65 ERA, 11 W
Lidge: 69.1 IP, 1.95 ERA, 41 SV

Did anyone ask Buck Martinez what he thought of those voters?

Whether you use WAR, WARP, ERA, or flip a coin, this isn’t the worst voting decision ever. Hell, it’s not even the worst of this awards season. For those members of the BBWAA (and please note it’s a select few) making a fracas over this when you stood silent in the past: shame on you. Any progress seemingly made on the Greinke vote is being undone because of sour grapes by folks hoping to keep the BBWAA an old boys club.

Aaron Heilman joined his fourth organization in the last 12 months tonight. Last year Heilman was part of a three-way deal that landed him in Seattle. Prior to the start of the regular season, he was shipped to the Cubs, and today he avoided being non-tendered and was instead sent to Arizona.

Heilman pitched in 70+ innings for the fifth consecutive season. He did a nice job putting an uncharacteristic 2008 season behind him. His FIPs over the past three years have been 3.86, 4.91, and 4.37, with the final two seasons coming with HR/FB higher than Heilman’s career average. He’s a slight groundball pitcher who uses a low-90s fastball, slider, and change effectively. Heilman has experience as a set-up man and the Diamondbacks seem likely to use him in the bullpen.

The return for the Cubs are a pair of minor leaguers.

Scott Maine is a stout lefty with impressive strikeout rates out of the bullpen. He’s 24-years-old and was drafted out of the university of Miami in 2007. Maine throws from a low arm slot and has a fastball that breaks into the low-90s as well as a slurve. The mandatory Tommy John surgery is out of the way and it’ll be interesting to see if deception is the key for Maine or if his stuff can hold up in the higher minors.

Ryne White is a short left-handed first baseman drafted in 2008 from Purdue. He’s shown the propensity to draw a walk but flashes few other skills despite a supposedly quick bat. He played some outfield in college and, given his height, there’s a chance he could return there sometime in the future.

Considering Heilman was on his way out for nothing, it’s hard to say the Cubs lose out on this deal. Maine might be a useful relief arm sooner than later, and who knows what the future holds for White. Obviously this isn’t an ideal situation, but at least they didn’t pay a marginal reliever seven million dollars today. As for Arizona, I’m not sure giving up anything of value for a middle reliever is a good play, especially given Arizona’s placement on the win curve.