The Tigers already re-signed third baseman Brandon Inge earlier this offseason and it appears they have completed the left side of the infield by re-signing Jhonny Peralta. The league leader in typos, Peralta will play shortstop in 2011 and presumably 2012 at the cost of roughly $11 million.
After a flurry of roster moves, the Mariners are playing the role of a clearinghouse. Larry Stone noted that the Mariners now only have 29 players on their 40-man roster. Not all teams carry a full 40-man roster, but having nearly a dozen open spots is certainly a rarity and an extreme. The Mariners are going to fill up their roster before springtime, but if they did not, could they benefit from leaving a few slots open throughout the season?
There are various reasons why a team places a player on their 40-man roster. The most obvious (and common) case is major league contributors. At least 25 men on the roster figure to play with the club daily and that number becomes ambiguous on a team-by-team basis depending on health, contracts, and talent. Not every player on the 40-man roster, of course, is classified as a major league ready contributor. Some are prospects who the team wants to protect from Rule 5 eligibility or view as near-ready contributors and the rest are usually organizational soldiers rewarded with a raise in pay and prestige.
Jim Jones released an album in 2006 named Product of My Environment. The most popular song off POME goes by the name “We Fly High”. The album and song name fit Chris Young’s career well. The Princeton attendee always stuck out in the Padres’ rotation – not because his ears sit just below the heavens either – but because he is the archetypal PETCO-made man; with most of his batted balls taking flight, he takes advantage of physics and the spacious yard preventing home runs.
If Young is truly a PETCO production then the Padres declining his 2011 option is going to become the first paragraph in his career’s final chapter. That is if injuries don’t take him out of the league first. Injuries did a great job taking Young out of the 2008-2010 seasons. Assuming Young does stay moderately healthy, what does he offer to a team?
Congratulations are in order to the San Francisco Giants and their fan base. The reduced period between the postseason conclusion and hot stove introduction will not temper the enthusiasm or vigor of celebrations, but does have serious implications for the Giants’ 2011 roster. As it stands, the Giants will see Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Edgar Renteria, and Juan Uribe hit the open market come Sunday. Renteria will be by team choice; otherwise, the Giants would have to exercise his option worth more than eight figures, thus he’s sort of invisible in the re-signing discussions.
Now the Giants’ challenge is to avoid the post-championship re-signings fueled by the rush of emotion and clinginess. By doing so, that does not mean closing the doors to re-signing any (or all) of the aforementioned players. What it does mean is to approach these negotiations as rational agents. That does not mean they have to take up the most dynamic analytical approaches either, just that placing some logic on their checkbooks should prevent buyer’s remorse. If the Giants’ management absolutely positively must keep this group together, then overpaying the players with some of the added revenue is a better tradeoff than giving them lengthier deals.
Here’s what they’re dealing with:
Uribe is the youngest of the aforementioned trio at 31. He’s hit .261/.312/.443 over the last three years while playing good defense. He hit .248/.310/.440 this season and continued to play good defense. In other words, he is what he played like. The biggest concern in a lengthy deal might not be Uribe’s age – although one would certainly hope the Giants do not hand him a five-year deal or anything near that – but rather his work ethic. There is a reason he landed with the Giants on a minor league deal and the reason was not that he was a prisoner of an ignorant front office.
Burrell turned 34 a matter of weeks ago. His bat played like it came from the 2008 season upon joining the Giants – his World Series struggles notwithstanding. Burrell’s career flat lined the last time he won a World Series and then entered free agency and much of the same concerns that existed then still reign true. Namely, that Burrell’s three true outcomes skill set rarely ages well and his poor defensive efforts limit his overall value. Those concerns sunk his desirability through the market, and that was before he put up a .218/.311/.361 line in 572 plate appearances with the Rays.
Burrell seems unlikely to return given the Giants’ contract and outfield situations for 2011. Ignoring their farm system, one has to account for Aaron Rowand, Andres Torres, Cody Ross, and Nate Schierholtz. There’s the returning Mark DeRosa too, who figures to play the outfield instead of the infield, depending on what happens with Uribe and Pablo Sandoval. With so many moving parts, it’s just hard to see Burrell fitting in.
Finally, there’s Huff. He turns 34 years old near the end of the year and had the best season of the three. Huff does not offer the defensive ability or flexibility of Uribe, but is willing to play the corner outfield or first base. That versatility along with essentially equal offensive abilities and no gimp costumes in Huff’s closet make him the one to re-sign if the Giants have to choose.
Simply re-signing these players will not be a crime. Giving them inflated deals to celebrate the title is. The championship prizes are rings and trophies, not silly extensions.
Courtesy of Jeff Caplan on ESPN Dallas:
“Probably the two questions were: Can [Neftali Feliz] close, and can he start?” [Jon Daniels] said. “You knew that somewhere that arm is going to play. I think we’ve definitively answered one of them. There’s no doubt in anybody’s mind he can close. We don’t know whether he can start and I don’t know if we’re going to find out. We’ve talked about it at some point that we might. We’re not going to close that door, but we’re also not going to speculate on it any more than is necessary. He’s our closer. I would expect he’ll be our closer.”
Knowing well how quickly a development like this can change makes commenting too forcefully a risky proposition. Regardless, the expected initial response here is something like, “How wasteful.” It’s not an indefensible position either. Giving a 22-year-old righty with a fastball that moves like a livid missile a life sentence to the bullpen is not entirely wise. At the same time: what else is Daniels going to say about Feliz while the season is still going on. Announcing that his best reliever with a 2.82 FIP through 100 career relief innings is moving to the rotation right now is just as foolhardy. How about the more nuanced response?
The Rangers have encountered moving pitchers to and from the bullpen before. Look at C.J. Wilson, Joaquin Benoit, and Scott Feldman for examples. Texas is experience rich in these situations and while they are fallible, that wisdom does lend credence to the folks who will defer to their expertise. Besides, their 2011 rotation as it stands today is likely to include the aforementioned Wilson, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, and perhaps one (or more) of Feldman, Tommy Hunter, and Cliff Lee.
Therefore, there is no lacuna of rotational talent or options available to the Rangers for at least next season. The same cannot be said of their bullpen. That does not mean Feliz remaining in relief is the only option. If somehow the Rangers were afforded the opportunity to swap Chris Davis for Tim Lincecum, they surely would not decline the offer because of their abundance. Answering whether Feliz as starter is worthy of a rotation spot is a difficult task and ultimately guess work.
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Hope is a cheap harlot to employ whenever a mediocre team changes general managers, meaning few should be surprised to see the Mets fan base embrace Sandy Alderson. Reassuring for those fanatics is how Alderson’s history suggests the admiration will be more than a fling or temporary affair. What Alderson means to the position depends on perspective. Call him the perfect compromise to the old and new school. A well-connected quantitatively conscious forward thinker, Alderson is not without his question marks, making him an embodiment of the roster he inherits.
Pick the most skeptical question asked of Alderson’s candidacy and one can find a match on the Mets. How long will you be here? Easily could be asking David Wright the same. How is your health? Carlos Beltran and Jason Bay. Can you recapture that success from way back when that made you special? Jose Reyes. How will you deal with change? Okay, that question is best asked to opposing forces by Johan Santana. Clearly, the metaphor has run its course.
The point to take away is that while Alderson and his roster have question marks, they also have the star power to intrigue. The supporting cast for those stars needs work and that’s fine. That’s why Alderson is there. His ability to find talent for marginal costs should separate him from previous Mets’ general managers. This will make the snarky parts of the Mets’ fan base cringe a bit, but Alderson’s job does not deviate greatly from the one Jack Zduriencik walked into. The difference being that Alderson’s starting roster is in better shape.
Who knows what the Mets’ roster is going to look like in three months or six, but there are enough options to create some moist spitballing sessions. Alderson’s comment about not writing players off without considering everything raises the possibility of a Luis Castillo platoon alongside someone like Joaquin Arias. Unsexy off the bat, Castillo will make $6 million next season whether the Mets release or play him. Playing him against righties isn’t the worst idea in the world, as he’s reached base against them roughly 38% of the time since 2008.
An outfield with Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran, and Angel Pagan is not hard to imagine. Pagan’s inability to hit left-handed pitching means someone like Nick Evans will likely get a share of at-bats, too. Would the Mets tamper with the thought of sliding Beltran to right field on the days Pagan plays, or do they err to keeping the number of moving parts to a minimal, thus leaving Beltran in center regardless of Pagan’s presence.
Josh Thole figures to catch most days and Ike Davis will play first base. That’s about it for the starting nine, with whoever the day’s starting pitcher is filling in the blank. Don’t forget about the farm system and encroaching talents like Fernando Martinez, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Lucas Duda, Reese Havens, and Jenrry Mejia. Not elite talents (minus Mejia) but enough to potentially land the Mets a starting pitcher if need be – and need most certainly be with Santana out for at least a little while.
The ability to focus on the pitching and bench side of the roster is one of the more incredible aspects of this situation: how often does a general manager take over with the ability to make minimal changes to his starting lineup without settling for below average play? The Mets are unlikely to challenge the Phillies or Braves legitimately next season. Some meaningful baseball late, though? That is not out of the question.
Keep in mind: this team won 79 games despite 20-year-old Ruben Tejada tallying as many plate appearances as Beltran, and despite Rod Barajas, Jeff Francoeur, Alex Cora, Jesus Feliciano, Gary Matthews Jr., Mike Jacobs, and Frank Catalanotto combining for 1,139 plate appearances (more than Bay and Wright’s sum) and a .276 on-base percentage. Additionally, the Mets had a dozen different pitchers getting a start, including Raul Valdez and Fernando Nieve, and Elmer Dessens (4.72 FIP, 5.56 xFIP) made more high leverage appearances than Hisanori Takahashi (3.65 FIP, 4.01 xFIP). Offensively, Wright had a career worst season in high leverage spots, while Beltran having his worst batting average (on balls in play as well) since 2000.
There’s talent in these here waters. Alderson just has to clear up the algae around the edges.
Along the way, a person hatched the idea that being the New York Yankees’ manager was the most difficult job in the land. The validity of this statement was at its peak back when George Steinbrenner was at his feistiest. Nowadays the job experience seems different in the Bronx. There is such a thing as job security, even after a “down” season. One couldn’t tell by the reaction to Joe Girardi’s three-year extension.
Girardi is not the game’s best tactician. He makes mistakes like every other manager in the world. He also makes his share of good decisions while receiving more blame on various non-decisions than he should – not pinch hitting for Lance Berkman with Austin Kearns comes to mind. Evaluating just how good Girardi is presents itself as a nearly impossible feat for an outsider. Even if he is only average tactically, there are other aspects of a manager’s job that need to be taken into account. The two flaws that Girardi’s detractors seem to be railing upon right now are: 1) he uses a binder during games to make decisions; 2) he failed to replicate Joe Torre’s early success.
Pretend for a moment that Girardi’s binder contains information about platoon splits and the basic rundown of data that a manager should be equipped with for in-game decisions. Whether this is the case or not is unbeknown to outsiders, but just pretend. Is there any downside to a manager having the information on hand with which to consult? Perhaps if the information itself is trivial or useless (i.e. how batters fared versus lefties over the last week or on Sundays), then Girardi is hurting the club, otherwise it’s hard to think of a downside.
Assuming that is not the case, the mocking of Girardi’s binder highlights the weird juxtaposition of the media’s treatment toward baseball managers who use information and prep work and their football counterparts who absorb film and schemes. Using numbers does not make Girardi a great manager, but it also does not make him a nincompoop. If he acknowledges that his gut and experience in the game does not hold all of the game’s answers, then he might be more self-aware and conscious than quite a few of his managing counterparts.
The ghost chasing aspect involved in the Girardi hate is equally weird. Torre’s first three seasons as Yankees’ manager included two World Series titles and regular season win totals of 92, 96, and 114. Girardi’s Bombers have only won a lone World Series and 89, 103, and 95 games. Torre is a better manager by that analysis, right? Well, no, because there are so many other variables in play that a direct comparison requires a lot more context.
But if the above analysis is believed to be true, then Jim Tracy deserves a ton of credit. Tracy’s first three seasons as Dodgers’ manager were also his first three as a manager at the Major League level, meaning he was a total novice. Yet those three seasons actually resulted in more wins than Torre’s first three seasons with the Dodgers. Not a soul out there claiming Girardi is inferior to Torre would be as bold in proclamation that Tracy is superior to Torre – and why should they? Rosters change, other teams change, luck changes, and even managers themselves change.
Evaluating managers is difficult, and whether Girardi is worth the money is probably beyond our analytical means. That he looks at a binder and is not his predecessor should not factor into the equation.
Timing is everything in comedy and baseball options. The Twins inked Jason Kubel to a two-year extension (value: $7.2M) in January 2009. Kubel responded with a career best season. He hit 28 home runs, notched 35 doubles, and boasted career bests in each of the slash line statistics. On the surface, it appeared the 27-year-old was tapping into his offensive potential reservoir, but an uncharacteristically high batting average on balls in play appeared to the underlying key to his offensive downpour.
A full season later and Kubel’s $5.25M option for the 2011 season no longer appears to be a bargain. Not after the worst season of his career. Kubel spent more time in the outfield because of Jim Thome’s presence and his ability to play defense is about what one would expect from a career designated hitter. The power receded to previous career norms and Kubel’s strikeout rate ticked upwards. Oh, and to make matters even worse, Kubel’s BABIP slipped to .280 (his career average now is .299).
The past two seasons place the Twins in an awkward position. Before the extension, Kubel was a cheap above average hitter who worked as a DH on a small market team. The Twins are no longer that small market team and Kubel isn’t the best DH on the roster anymore. He’s not even the best left-handed hitting DH on the roster, as he struggles mightily against lefties (.322, .286, .297 the past three seasons) and requires a platoon mate. The man can hit righties, but cannot play defense or do much of anything else.
That makes him a fungible asset. Age is no longer on his side and one has to wonder how much a catastrophic knee injury zapped his minor league potential. The Twins’ payroll flexibility is better than it used to be, but not in the neighborhood of the Gotham teams, so while it’s only $5 million, one has to think the Twins would be better off using that money to re-sign the ageless Jim Thome and chip the rest in towards re-signing their favorite bullpen arm with an expiring contract.
A brief timeline of Coco Crisp the Athletic:
12/23/2009: Signed
5/21/2010: Played in his first regular season game
5/22/2010: Played in his second regular season game
6/22/2010: Played in his third regular season game
Health is a tool and one that Crisp forgot to pack. He did finish with 328 plate appearances on the season and played well when he took the field, easily earning his four million and change on a Wins Above Replacement to dollars conversion. He even earned the option part of the deal, which means the Athletics are playing with house money when they make the decision to either exercise or decline the option.
What should they do? Hard to say. Crisp’s fragility is a legitimate concern, albeit one lessened by the length of the commitment. He has not racked up more than 500 plate appearances in a season since 2007. This particular tidbit will not come into play in 2011, but Crisp has not received 500-plus plate appearances in consecutive seasons since 2004-2005 – back then he wore Cleveland garb. If he can manage 500 plate appearances, then he is probably good for at least two wins, as he’s probably good for a plus defensive performance and a line resembling his 2008-2010 tally of .270/.342/.412.
On the other hand, the Athletics already have Travis Buck, Rajai Davis, Ryan Sweeney, Chris Carter, Conor Jackson, and perhaps Michael Taylor around for next season. Even if you place Carter and Taylor in the minors, dismiss Gabe Gross and Jackson, and throw Buck on the disabled list – it’s bound to happen – that leaves the outfield packed with three defensive-heavy, offensive-light centerfielders. Whether the law of diminishing returns comes into play or not is overblown, but you wonder if the Athletics could benefit a little by diversifying their assets.
The Athletics could always exercise Crisp’s option then look to trade him (or one of the others) which might be the most reasonable route. The free agent center field market is putrid at best and the younger names out there will certainly demand a better return. That makes Crisp something like the most feasible center fielder available, regardless of what the A’s decide.
Adrian Beltre, Boston
Option: $10M (player) Buyout: $1M
Beltre’s contract called for a player option worth $5M in 2011 unless he reached the 640 plate appearance plateau in 2010. He finished with 641, earning him a potential $5M raise. A majestic season with a .321/.365/.553 line and his choice of agent suggests free agency is his destination. Beltre remains one of the best defensive third basemen in the league and putting the offensive disaster that took place in 2009 behind him can only help his stock. Look for him to secure a much lengthier deal than the “prove it” variety he settled for last offseason.
Nick Punto, Minnesota
Option: $5M Buyout $0.5M
Punto remains a slick fielder and a generally good baserunner. His ability to fill in at multiple positions and pinch run are the only things marketable about him, though, as outside of some walks his bat is putrid. Punto is worth $5M on a WAR-to-dollars basis and the Twins could probably bring him back without much fuss, especially with the pending departures inside the rest of the infield. The decisive question is whether the $4.5M gained through declining his option is more useful to the Twins on the open market than Punto.