More than 200 plate appearances into the season, Brian Giles remains the worst regular in baseball. Suffice to say, Giles abrupt decay is a bit surprising. Sure, he’s 38 years old and plays in a notoriously suppressive offensive climate, but even Giles’ park-adjusted numbers are repulsive. His .255 wOBA translates to -12.7 offensive runs. Giles has played nearly as poorly on defense, posting a -8.1 UZR despite playing an outfield corner.

All told, Giles has been worth 1.5 wins below replacement level, good for a “value” of $-6.9 million; the Padres are paying him $9 million over the course of this season.

Giles has struggled to hit the fastball this season to the tune of -2.25 runs per 100 heaters faced, a glaring weakness which the league has exploited by throwing him fastballs 66% of the time. It’s hard to tell whether Giles has lost his bat speed or something else along the way, but his performance this year represents a drastic drop from that of his previous seasons:

2006 0.12 wFB/C

2007 0.92 wFB/C

2008 1.16 wFB/C

Meanwhile, the velocity of the average fastball he’s seen is just about the same: ~91 miles per hour this season and last, and ~90 MPH in 2006 and 2007. In other words, Giles’ subpar performance against the hard stuff this season can’t be attributed to his having faced a greater percentage of flamethrowers. The two home runs he has hit were surrendered by Chad Billingsley and Edinson Volquez, and both came in fastball counts.

Moving forward, I would still expect Giles to improve offensively. He currently sports a .218 BABIP, compared to his low of .274 over the past three seasons. Giles’ line-drive rates remain respectable, and his walk/strikeout rates have stabilized. The only weapon his game definitely lacks is power. His ISO is down from .150 to .083, although as Dave pointed out in the off-season, the inverse relationship between fastballs seen and ISO likely explains some of this decline.

I’m sure the Padres were a bit miffed with Giles’ decision to block a move last year. I can’t imagine how thrilled they are to see his value all but vanish within a year.

As if the Angels hadn’t been through enough already, Ervin Santana will miss tonight’s scheduled start with right forearm tightness. Santana has already missed time this season with an elbow injury that left him out until mid-May. Injuries to John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar have already forced the Angels to dig into their farm system, and now Sean O’Sullivan will be called upon to make at least a start. O’Sullivan will become the 12th starter on an Angels team decimated by injury, tragedy, and ineffectiveness.

Questioning whether Santana was really healthy is nothing new. A decline in strikeouts and increase in walks and homeruns against raised red flags. Fewer batters are chasing Santana out of the zone and this is the most contact Santana has ever allowed. Our batted ball data has Santana giving up 26.1% line drives. That measure usually stabilizes early, so while there’s some sample size issues at play, there’s reason to believe Santana was being hit quite hard.

Part of the reason for the increased contact rates is the velocity of Santana’s fastball. No longer is Santana flashing a fastball that sits in the mid-90s; instead, he’s barely touching that point. Dave covered this back in early June, but here’s a look at Santana’s updated velocity chart:

Whether the problem stemmed from Santana still being hurt or still building arm strength, pitching him every five days was doing little to rectify the situation. The Angels are deciding against placing Santana on the disabled list, at least for now, as they await results from a MRI test. Having a roster spot taken by someone unable to pitch seems like a waste, but be that as it may, the Angels have decided to roll the dice and hope Santana is ready to go on June 23rd. If not, the Angels can active Escobar while placing him in the bullpen, disable Santana, and leave O’Sullivan in the rotation.

At least nobody will be able to accuse Tony Reagins of being unaware of any disabled list intricacies

Although it wasn’t the entire reason, Manny Acta was fired in part because of the atrocious defense played by the Nationals. The collection of gloves is the worst in the league, with a -27.2 combined UZR. Not only is that nearly three wins thrown away by poor leather, but also nearly 10 runs worst than the Marlins, who rank 29th. Giving Acta a DH to shuffle around multiple outfield positions and one too many talented corner outfielders with one too few talented centerfielders was a recipe for defensive inadequacy.

It seems like a mistake to play an outfield that features Dunn, Elijah Dukes, and Corey Patterson and have Patterson play right, but that’s what Acta did on Sunday. Maybe he didn’t care anymore; after all, rumors of his termination were already well spread by Saturday night. Critics of Acta’s are going to write that he was fired because his rotation has a 5.19 ERA. In reality their 4.82 FIP isn’t fantastic, but is lower than the Rangers rotation. The difference is defense.

Amongst the Nationals problems this year:

First baseman Nick Johnson is usually a solid defender but has taken his lumps in 2009. His Range Runs are in the negative as are his Error Runs. Johnson’s range has been trending down for three consecutive seasons, yet it still seems like a safe bet to expect that to move closer to 0 rather than towards -5 as the season continues. The low point of his season may have been on Friday night, when he dropped a foul ball and Gabe Kapler homered on the next pitch.

Willie Harris is statistically the Nationals worst fielder. Harris is usually a solid defender. As with Johnson, I don’t buy that his skills have decayed in the matter of one off-season. Even the increased time in center shouldn’t have this affect on him.

Adam Dunn is … well …. Adam Dunn.

Obviously Acta isn’t without blame, but he should take this as a learning experience. Much like how Terry Francona did.

Three of the league’s most promising young starters are also three of the league’s least efficient starters. Joba Chamberlain, Clayton Kershaw, and David Price are loaded with good velocity and bright futures with present issues in putting batters away within a timely manner.

During the third inning of last night’s game, Chamberlain threw 48 pitches and allowed two runs without the ball so much as leaving the infield. Three walks and a pair of hit batsmen gave the Mets the lead without much of their own doings – the exception being Carlos Beltran’s 10 pitch at-bat that culminated in a walk; Beltran fell behind 1-2 and with the count worked full, fouled off three consecutive pitches before drawing ball four.

Despite the inning from fielding independent pitching hell, Chamberlain has been the most efficient of the trio; averaging 3.94 pitches per batter faced this season. Kershaw averages nearly a half of a pitch more per batter with 4.35, and Price is nearly an entire pitch more at 4.82. The former two are averaging a little over five innings per start while Price has made four starts this season and only pitched into the sixth inning twice.

Price 19 IP, 12.32 K/9, 8.53 BB/9, 50.2 Zone%, 17.5 O-Swing%
Chamberlain 63.1 IP, 8.24 K/9, 4.69 BB/9, 43.9 Zone%, 23.2 O-Swing%
Kershaw 64 IP, 8.72 K/9, 5.48 BB/9, 50.4 Zone%, 21.7 O-Swing%

Despite the decent Zone% it’s not hard to see why Price is having the most issues. Sure, he’s throwing about the same amount of pitches in the zone as Kershaw, and more than Chamberlain, but less hitters are chasing Price out of the zone, meaning he’s actually throwing less strikes than Kershaw overall. Being a three true outcomes pitcher is hard work when your ratios are that high, although admittedly it is a pretty small sample size.

Here’s a graph comparing the three. It contains each start made thus far, the average amount of pitchers per batter faced, and the total amount of batters faced. Take away the outlier on the left side of the graph and you can see the obvious inverse relationship between the two.

Just in case you were wondering: Roy Halladay averages a little under 3.6 pitches per batter faced.

The average bust rate for first round picks is right around 60%. Cold reality tells us that most of these shiny new first rounders will never touch the major leagues after taking batting practice or throwing a bullpen session for their teams over the next few weeks. Some teams have proven to be more successful avoiding the bust bug than others. In fact, most of the teams have proven to be better than a particular pair of franchises.

The Astros and Cubs haven’t had a first round selection reach the major leagues since 2001. That would be Chris Burke and Mark Prior respectively. The next longest drought is shared by two teams and dates back to 2004. With the Astros, you sort of expect such acts of futility. You know when video games advertise things like, “Scout the latest amateur prospects! Look for talent in international markets! Watch as your young players develop into tomorrow’s superstars!” Yeah, or you could do none of the above and mimic Ed Wade.

The Cubs are the surprise team. Jim Hendry has proven to be a fine general manager and was a pretty good scouting director. Hendry was promoted in October of 2001 and his team’s first round draft quality has slipped considerably. This is not to say they haven’t made good picks of the time at the draft, just none of them have worked out well.

In 2002 the team had four first round picks, three of which were of the supplemental variety. They took college pitchers Luke Hagerty, Chadd Blasko, Matthew Clanton, and Bobby Brownlie. In 2003, the Cubs would take high school phenom Ryan Harvey who drew pre-draft comparisons to Mark McGwire for his outstanding power. Left without a first round pick in 2004, the Cubs would take high school arm Mark Pawelek in 2005 and college bat Tyler Colvin in 2006. Neither has played in a game above AA to this point in their careers.

2007’s draft class might hold the key to ending the streak. One of Josh Donaldson and Josh Vitters should eventually reach the majors. If nothing else, at least Donaldson helped the Cubs acquire Rich Harden, which is more than most of the other failed first round picks can say.

Now that Strasburg-mania is cooling down, the next top amateur player will find out his destination over the next month. 16-year-old shortstop Miguel Angel Sano has been profiled heavily over the past few months. At 6’3” Sano is expected to move to a corner as he ages. His bat appears to be special and has drawn some comparisons to former shortstops like Gary Sheffield.

Most of Sano’s value comes from his age and projected bat. Defensively he has a strong arm, but the athleticism required to stick at shortstop is probably going to be lost with a few more inches, assuming he isn’t physically maxed out. Some of the previous top bonus babies include Wily Mo Pena and Joel Guzman. Neither became a star, but both helped their signing franchise in some fashion or another. Pena recorded a positive WAR during his time in Cincinnati and was later traded for Bronson Arroyo. Guzman has been a massive bust, but was essentially dealt straight up for Julio Lugo, who later became two first round draft picks.

Lack of superstardom hasn’t stopped teams from investing big money bonuses to foreign prospects. Just last year the Athletics signed Michael Ynoa for a record breaking 4.25 million dollars and the Reds signed outfielder Yorman Rodriguez for a positional player record, one Sano should break. Kiley McDaniel has listed the Pirates as the frontrunners, with teams like the Rays and Orioles also interested in the youngster. McDaniel also implies that the Pirates pick at number four, who we now know by the name of Tony Sanchez, could be selected with cost in mind. Sanchez certainly fits that bill.

Is Sano worth the investment? The victor of the Sano sweepstakes is probably going to pay between 3 and 4 million for his services. Of course you run the risk of Sano burning out on baseball before ever taking a major league swing, but don’t you run that same risk for just about any amateur talent? I’ve taken the last three years worth of top five picks and their signing bonuses and created a created, illustrating how Sano’s costs may stack up to those of the top amateur talents:

Coincidentally, the cheapest pick has been selection four; the same pick the Pirates held Tuesday night and seemingly held true to the recent trend. The most expensive pick, outside of the first, has been number five thanks to Matt Wieters and Buster Posey. The average across the board is 4.28 million, which would set another international signing record.

Teams must answer whether Sano would be a top five selection in his first eligible draft, if the answer is yes; they should put forth the money. If the answer is no, they need to evaluate where he would fall. Remember, this is 4.28 million in closed negotiations; Sano is on the open market, in theory that would inflate his price.

Sano won’t be hitting homeruns off Tropicana Field’s outer walls or on Sports Illustrated covers like Bryce Harper but expect to hear a lot more about him in the next four weeks.

When the Dodgers signed Orlando Hudson in late February for 3.38 million the only risks involved were Hudson’s ability to pass a physical and whether they could still find playing time for Blake Dewitt. Barring injury, Hudson’s skills were unlikely to erode over one off-season to the point where he would become a poor one-year signing. Add in a price tag that left the Dodgers paying for fewer than one win above replacement level, and Ned Colletti used his budget to upgrade his lineup once more.

Hudson has been fantastic. Uncharacteristically, Hudson’s slash line is .315/.396/.444. This is a player who recorded an average line of .294/.365/.448 over the past three seasons. A .368 BABIP has lead to the batting average inflation with an influx of added singles. Those extra hits have done little to help his power production, but along with a career high walk rate have improved his on-base percentage by more than enough to make up the deficit. Plus, it’s probable that Hudson will showcase some more power heading forward given recent ISO:

2006: .168
2007: .147
2008: .145
2009: .129

ZiPS has Hudson batting .297/.372/.437 for the rest of the season, or about eight runs. Combined with his offensive accomplishments to date and Hudson is looking at nearly 20 runs over the span of a single season; easily a career best.

Hudson isn’t the glove demon he once was with the Jays, but his -7.5 UZR/150 is essentially the same as last year despite some differences in the component factors. For one, his double play prowess has returned to above average levels. Hudson’s range has went south, but his sure handiness when he does get to balls is about as well as you would expect.

Add in the playing time and positional adjustments and Hudson is looking at his best season in half a decade. If that’s the case, he will have earned nearly five times what the Dodgers paid him in base salary. That’s a fantastic return on a relatively low risk signing. I don’t think the team that signs the (then) 32-year-old Hudson to a longer contract this off-season will have the same luck.

In 25 plate appearances, Jamie Moyer has more walks (6) than some regular positional players. In fact, Moyer’s .348 on-base percentage is impressive when his .067 batting average is taken into account. As you can guess, Moyer leads all pitchers with at least 20 plate appearances in bases on balls. Bengie Molina, Cristian Guzman, Miguel Tejada, Marlon Byrd, and Jeff Francour are within two walks of Moyer’s range. Congratulations guys, a 40-something-year old pitcher is doing a better job at drawing a walk than you are.

Some other tidbits from when pitchers hit…

Livan Hernandez has struck out the lowest percentage amount of any pitcher. Mike Pelfrey has the second lowest percentage. I guess the Mets preach contact to their pitchers. Paul Maholm is striking out 63% of the time. Josh Johnson and Moyer are the other two pitchers with more than 60% strikeouts.

Carlos Zambrano has the highest ISO at .529, Micah Owings isn’t too far behind at .242, and Yovani Gollardo is the only other pitcher over .150. I guess the National League Central has a penchant for finding pitchers with capable hitting abilities. Tons of pitchers have only singles to their credit this season.

The absolute worst hitting pitchers, as measured by wRAA: Wandy Rodriguez (-6.5), Randy Wolf (-6.1), and Ryan Dempster (-5.5). Meanwhile, only three pitchers have positive wRAA: Micha Owings (0.4), Carlos Zambrano (0.3), and Mike Hampton (0.3).

The Marlins have the worst hitting staff in the NL while the D-Backs and Phillies have the best – I guess they have to do something to make up for the poor starting. Click here to view a png of the rest of the NL’s placement as of last night.

Hundreds of players will begin their quest towards the major leagues with the amateur draft tomorrow night. Two of the better high school prospects over the last decade are making impressions with their leather this season and coincidentally both share a blood link. Genealogy aside, Justin Upton and B.J. Upton present two very different sets of skills.

Dave has talked about Justin at depth since the off-season, mostly about his stellar offensive play and ludicrously brief rise to stardom. Upton the Younger has been improved defensively as well, sitting just shy of five total fielding runs. Compare his UZR components from this year to those of previous years and the striking differences are in Upton’s Arm and Error runs. Upton compiled -2.4 ErrR in both of his first two seasons, but has improved to 0.4 this year.

Upton has only been playing right field for a few seasons now, so the increased sure-handiness should probably be expected, although maybe it’s just small sample sizes playing tricks on us. If the improvements are genuine, there’s even more reason to single out Upton as the bright spot of the Diamondbacks offense this season.

Young players changing positions is something that Upton the Elder can relate to. B.J.’s offense heretofore has disappointed, although recently he’s shown signs of awakening. Upton’s defense seemed unaffected by a torn labrum last season and Upton the same defensive prowess. Like Justin, B.J. has improved his rate of errors and is even showing more range.

Everyone knows how this Upton came up a hotshot shortstop with a fondness for overthrowing first basemen. Upton shifted to third and second before finding himself in center and shining. If you watched any of the post-season last year or really any Rays game broadcasted anywhere you’ve undoubtedly heard about how shallow Upton plays. Upton’s UZR/150 currently sits at 13.1, two runs higher than his 2008 total.

Both Uptons were drafted not for their defensive ability, but instead insane offensive potential coming from premium defensive positions. Neither stuck at shortstop along the way, yet still both have became quite talented defenders at their professional positions.

Gordon Beckham wasn’t among first five hitters taken in last June’s draft, but he will be one of the first five hitters from the 2008 draft to appear in the major leagues. Beckham will be promoted before tonight’s game, taking the place of Wilson Betemit. Off to an awful start, Betemit is set to be designated for assignment, some team looking for a utility infielder could take on Betemit. ZiPS projects his bat around league average for the rest of the season which is approximately one of the many things Betemit offers over, say, Angel Berroa.

As for Beckham, he has less than 200 plate appearances in the minors, but the White Sox are apparently satisfied with his polish. Last year, he hit .310/.365/.500 in 63 plate appearances in A-Ball and so far this year he hit an almost identical .299/.366/.497 at Double-A. He’s showcasing some good pop and plate discipline. Defensively it’s hard to tell how Beckham will perform. Some scouting reports indicate Beckham’s arm is only average and his small stature has a lot of people saying his ultimate destination is at second base.

The White Sox third basemen have compiled -8.8 UZR and -11 wRAA. That’s nearly two full wins shaved off the Sox’ total thanks to poor play at the hot corner. Beckham figures to be an immediate upgrade at the plate and in the field.

Only three and a half games separate Chicago from first place Detroit, yet in the tight American League Central, that margin is identical to the Sox’ distant to last place as well. We know Kenny Williams is one of the more aggressive personnel movers in the league, and despite his failed attempts at grabbing Jake Peavy, it’ll be interesting to see if he tries to acquire another starting pitcher or a new second baseman in the coming weeks.