Mark Ellis, Oakland
Option: $6M Buyout: $0.5M

After a disappointing 2009, Ellis bounced back in a big way; increasing his WAR by two while only racking up an additional 82 plate appearances. When Ellis originally signed the extension, he became the point o dissension amongst the community for not testing the market. The deal appeared to be of the sweetheart variety. It still is, as even Ellis’ down season racked up a value of $5.4 million. If Ellis were to replicate that value (in dollars) in 2011, he would essentially pay for himself, as the buyout guarantees he’ll receive half a million whether he’s in Oakland (likely) or elsewhere.

Jose Lopez, Seattle
Option: $4.5M Buyout: $0.25M

One could categorize Lopez as a third baseman, since that is where he played last season, but for now let’s call him a second baseman. Lopez will be a quarter of a million richer as he hits the free agent market unless Jack Zduriencik somehow creates a sucker rally. The 2010 season may represent a disaster in Lopez’s career, but he’s probably headed for a utility role given his history of relative success. Lopez will only be 27 and getting away from Safeco should help his raw numbers immediately. He’s never going to take a lot of walks but his ability to hit for pop and adequately play two premium defensive positions shouldn’t be overlooked.

Omar Infante, Atlanta
Option: $2.5M Buyout: $0.25M

Infante was more than worth the money over the last two seasons alone, but this season cemented his return. Presumably Infante will return to his super sub role, although some of that is dependent on what occurs with Chipper Jones and what steps – if necessary – the Braves take to replace the legend.

Gregg Zaun, Milwaukee
Option: $2.25M Buyout: $0.25M

The most stylish catcher in the game, Zaun’s flair may as well come custom from Louis Vuitton. A torn labrum bagged his season, leaving it best known for an embarrassing case of the yips. The closest thing to game action Zaun has seen since is doing postseason television work in Canada. Still, he’s established his desire to play, and assuming Milwaukee chooses to decline his option, Zaun could latch onto a team in need of a good hitting reserve catcher (wRC+ over 90 in each of the past seven seasons) with the groove gene.

Miguel Olivo, Colorado
Option: $2.5M Buyout: $0.5M

Olivo’s contract stipulated that his option would convert into one of mutual standing based on his games played tally. He saw action in 112, which seemed unlikely at the date of inking, what with Chris Iannetta in tow, but there is a decent chance the option is now mutual. Olivo played well enough to have Colorado exercise their part of the deal (regardless of Iannetta) and could find himself as a free agent through his own merit.

Yorvit Torrealba, San Diego
Option: $3.5M (mutual) Buyout: $0.5M

To catch is to don the tools of ignorance. Part of Torrealba’s job description in 2010 included enlightening Nick Hundley until he got his C legs under him. Torrealba defied the odds by having one of his finest offensive seasons (107 wRC+, matching a career high) in perhaps the most arctic of offensive conditions. Padres’ bench coach, the legendary Ted Simmons, holds the philosophy that it takes 500 games (or 1,500 at-bats) to know what you have in a catcher. Assuming Simmons: 1) has some say, and 2) knows what he’s talking about, it wouldn’t be a shock if Torrealba returns.

Ted Lilly made a nice impression in his 12 starts for the Dodgers: Seventy-six innings, a 3.98 FIP, and a 3.52 earned run average, which are nice enough numbers that the Dodgers have re-signed the southpaw to a three-year deal worth $33 million. The deal serves as a nice follow-up to Lilly’s last free agent contract, which held a worth of $10 million annually. A value deal this is not.

Over the last three seasons, Lilly has posted Wins Above Replacement totals of 2.8, 3.8, and 2.3. Taking an average is not the best method for projection purposes. But if Lilly is a three-win pitcher then that gives him a market value of something around$12 million. Given Lilly’s age and decreased velocity – he averaged nearly 90 miles per hour on his fastball the last time he inked a contract, he’s down to 87 miles per hour now – it’s not unreasonable to say he could be in for some decline.

Let’s say he starts at three wins (and keep in mind, this does not account for any regression towards the mean) and declines at a straight-line rate of 0.3 wins per season. That’s not too aggressive, mind you, and gives us the picture of a best-case scenario. That gives us totals of 3, 2.7, and 2.4. Optimistically let’s say the market begins to perk up over these seasons, with win totals costing $4 million for next year, then increasing by 10% annually, which paints the following picture:

The margin for error is thin. What this analysis has yet to account for is the Dodgers’ placement on the win curve and the opportunity cost incurred by re-signing Lilly. The Dodgers finished fourth in the division, but the National League West seems perpetually open, meaning contention is not out of the question. Lilly is one of the better starting pitchers on the open market and the Dodgers needed to secure either Hiroki Kuroda or him, lest they head into the free agency period needing two starters with a budget saddled by divorce papers.

This deal is completely reasonable in the minds of those who think Lilly can continue to replicate his results year in and year out, but the inherent injury and attrition rate held by starting pitchers makes it a risky proposition. Once the ownership issues vanish, the salary becomes irrelevant – $11 instead of $9 is not going to get anyone fired. The length, though, is the most questionable aspect and will continue to be so.

Melky Cabrera debuted in 2005 with a cherub face and as a dosage of imagination. At the time, the 20-year-old represented a better alternative to Tony Womack (although, with an on-base percentage of .276 and slugging percentage of .280, who didn’t?) and while Cabrera failed to capitalize in his six-game stint his return to the majors was all but ensured. Players who reach the majors at such youth usually reserve special futures. The aggressive manner with which the Yankees promoted him suggested they believed he could adjust quickly too.

Sure enough, the Yankees threw him into the everyday lineup starting in 2006 and he hit at a league average rate. All the signs pointed towards Cabrera becoming a regular – and he did – but rumors persisted that he became even more of a regular to the grandiose New York nightlife. Those rumors flare up about players throughout the league and only become worthwhile when the player begins to struggle. Unfortunately for Cabrera, his struggles began in 2007 and lasted until the 2009 season, when he once again hit league average.

The Yankees took advantage of the uptick by flipping him to the Braves in the Javier Vazquez deal over the winter and Cabrera’s slide took another hit today – fewer than 12 months later – as the Braves have officially released him. Poor conditioning reportedly set in this season and Cabrera showed little progress in any aspect of the game. He mostly remained static across the board, but his ISO slipped and his defense became reliant upon his arm strength and little else.

Concerns about Cabrera likely exceed his shoddy performances given Atlanta’s notorious behavior to cut bait on players they feel are not holding up their part of the bargain. He’ll be 26 when the 2011 season opens for play and some team is going to give him a job based on the promise and hope that he flips the switch. If changing teams for the third time in 15 months doesn’t do it, maybe the promise was misplaced to begin with.

Two surefire ways to get Carson Cistulli’s blood pumping: 1) Insult the bear sweater; 2) Suggest Colby Lewis might have a bad start. Neither is unexpected, mind you, since the fleece is fantastic and Cistulli has spat more bars about Lewis over the last seven months than a reverse alcoholic. Nevertheless, Lewis will get the call against the Yankees on Saturday, and it might not go over too well in Cistulli’s heart.

To start with the obvious: the Yankees score runs. Pinstripes never fade and the Yankees rarely make outs, as they led the league in team on-base percentage and runs per game. Those numbers are not adjusted for park or completion and neither is the following factoid, which is that the Yankees had the best OPS against flyball pitchers in the league by more than .020 points.

Robinson Cano is ferocious against pitchers who get most of their outs through the skies, with a seasonal .213/.387/.571 line, marking the second consecutive season he’s posted an OPS over .900 against the flyballing family. Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, Marcus Thames (who does not figure to be in the lineup versus Lewis), Mark Teixeira, and Nick Swisher all posted OPS over. 850 versus flyball pitchers this season too. Even Derek Jeter got into the act of making baseballs chase airplanes, which isn’t too surprising given his status as a supreme groundball hitter.

This is all bad news for Lewis because he’s sort of a flyball pitcher. Not for his career (1.01 GB/FB and 38.7% FB) but over his last 230 or so innings pitched his flyball rate has sat around 44-46%. Lewis is probably a bit better than the typical flyball pitcher the Yankees have faced. Besides, anything can happen in a single game or short series. In more direct terms: a Yankee-thumping is not guaranteed.

One thing Lewis could benefit from is not seeing the Yankees this season. Of course, it’s not like the Yankees are in the dark about what Lewis throws or where he throws it, they just don’t hold the password to Lewis’ home alarm system like a certain Mr. Cistulli.

Cliff Lee was masterful once again, making it the fourth time (of five matchups) that he struck out double digit Rays. He’s going to be the story of this game (hell, this series) and rightfully so. It’s hard to think Lee isn’t the best pitcher in the American League right now – and that’s not just because only two teams remain.

The other big plays involved baserunning. Let’s give them each a quick look:

1) Elvis Andrus scoring from second on a groundball to first base

Carlos Pena picked up the ball and flipped it to David Price. By the time Price heard Evan Longoria screaming to throw it home, Andrus was successfully across the plate. Rangers up 1-to-0 after three batters. The gain here is .041 despite an out being made on the play. Pretty nifty, considering Andrus also added .035 WPA on his single and .015 on a stolen base.

2) Nelson Cruz scoring from second on an error by Kelly Shoppach

Cruz took the weirdest route of the three. After driving a ball to the deepest portion of the park (and admiring it so), Cruz had to hustle to get into second base after the ball hit off the wall. He then took off for third base on a steal attempt and got up to run home after Shoppach’s throw sailed into left field. Just like that, the Rangers regained the lead. Add .027 WPA on the double and .099 on the steal and further advance.

3) Vladimir Guerrero scoring from second base on a grounder to first base

Price received the ball at first again, but this time argued with the umpire on the safe call before turning and firing home. Guerrero slid in before Shoppach could apply the tag and the most unlikely of events put the Rangers up by two in the sixth. Add .057 on this play.

That’s .206 WPA off baserunning and .477 for Lee, or about 70% of the win.

Congrats to the Rangers, who now advance to the ALCS.

This is the fifth meeting within seven days for these two teams. They know each other pretty well by now, meaning few secrets remain. Perhaps the only secret is which player Joe Maddon will start at designated hitter. The two options are Dan Johnson and Willy Aybar.

The switch-hitting Aybar would be the intuitive choice with lefty-tossing Cliff Lee on the mound. Lee doesn’t have much of a platoon split himself, though, and lefties have actually fared better against him this season than righties. Besides, Aybar had a miserable season all around and posted a .304 wOBA versus lefties. The previous two seasons with the Rays included wOBA of .347 and .381 against abnormal humans, so you can see how this is a new experience for Aybar, who displayed less power and less motivation for free passes.

Johnson bats lefty but has a career .330 wOBA against same-handed pitchers in nearly 400 plate appearances. His skill set is an interesting one given Lee’s dominance in the strike zone. Johnson nary swings at pitches outside of the strike zone and only swings at pitches in the zone a little more often. He’s a take hitter which seemingly makes him a poor matchup against Lee – after all, two takes and it could be 0-2 already.

History suggests Maddon will roll with Aybar, as he did in two of the three regular season affairs, but it is worth noting that the Rays left Aybar off the postseason roster entirely in favor of Rocco Baldelli. That’s relevant because if one didn’t know better, Baldelli’s entire purpose on the roster was to play in game one before ducking out due to fatigue. Whoever Maddon decides to play, it’s not expected to matter much, but who knows what will happen in one last game.

The game of musical DH chairs will end tomorrow night and so will one of these teams’ seasons.

The Rays got on the scoreboard first in a game. Notable because in the previous three games, they had trailed before scoring their first run (or in game two’s case: when they thought about scoring a run).

Carlos Pena took a lot of heat for his awful performance in game one. Joe Maddon did not start him in game two against C.J. Wilson. Without much in the way of alternatives, Maddon had to throw Pena back in there against the righties in this series and hope the trust and larger sample size would prevail. Sure enough, Pena hit a triple in his first plate appearance today and a double in his second. Giving him a hit of each base variety over his last four plate appearances and giving the Rays a 1-0 lead after Matt Joyce’s blooper dropped in (credited as an error to Ian Kinsler).

Pena would spark another run in the fourth, hitting the second of back-to-back doubles alongside Evan Longoria. B.J. Upton would double two batters later, giving the Rays a 3-0 lead. Longoria would hit a two-run homer in the fifth and the Rays would have five runs on the day and 11 in the last two games —not bad for a team that managed a run in its first 18 innings this postseason.

Wade Davis had a strong start himself by going five, allowing seven hits, a homer, walking three, and striking out seven Rangers. Davis flashed heat and solid breaking stuff throughout along with some conviction. That’s often an overstated part of pitching and one heavily based upon outcomes, but he showed little fear or self-doubt while challenging Josh Hamilton (with a base open) or Vladimir Guerrero (with the bases loaded). A spotless start it was not, however not a bad way to begin a postseason career, and not a bad way to potentially wrap his first full season in the bigs.

The two teams will take a travel day tomorrow and meet one last time in St. Petersburg on Tuesday night. That’s right, it’ll be a night game for the first time in the series. The probable matchup is David Price and Cliff Lee for the third time this season, with the two teams splitting the first two affairs.

Must-win game number two for Tampa Bay will feature Wade Davis as starting pitcher. Monday will be an off-day whether the series continues or not, meaning just about everyone on Tampa Bay’s staff shy of David Price (if he’s saved for a potential game five) and Matt Garza (who started Saturday’s game) would be available in relief work if Davis happens to stumble.

Davis’ likelihood to slip and slide may or may not be more unpredictable than other pitches, but it sure feels like it. From June until August, Davis’ xFIP finished in the 4.8s, yet his peripherals danced across the floor to a foreign pattern. One month, Davis would look like a pitcher with a flair for the three true outcomes. The next he would be a contact aficionado. Based on his six five, 220 pound frame and low-to-mid 90s heater (his adoration for which is no secret) one would think Davis is closer to the pitcher who will strike some out and walk some more, but in a perfect world he falls into his September numbers; where he compiled a 7.49 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9.

The only thing with more rate changes than his numbers is his favorability amongst the locals that stems from an improved ERA and win-loss record. In fact, since returning from the disabled list on August 5, Davis went 3-1 with a 3.76 ERA. A good chunk of that improvement can be attributed to only giving up five home runs in 50-plus innings. Consider that at one point, Davis gave up five home runs in an 11 innings span and `18 over his first 94 innings.

Has Davis improved in anything but luck? One would like to think so (and the numbers spell this out to some degree as well) but expect Joe Maddon to have his pen ready at a whim. After all, he pulled James Shields and Matt Garza well before either hit the 100-pitches mark, and neither were in games that could force a decisive game five.

As for the Rays’ lineup, the J-Walkers (John Jaso, Matt Joyce, and Dan Johnson) will be present along with one of yesterday’s stars, Carlos Pena. Tommy Hunter will be the opposition.

For the first five innings, this game felt like a direct-to-DVD sequel to the previous two in the series. The Rays stranded baseruners and allowed a run on usual circumstances. In the sixth, everything we came to expect was turned upside down.

Joe Maddon allowed his lefty bats to stay in against lefty Derek Holland. Matt Joyce reached on a fielder’s choice and Dan Johnson followed with a single. Normally this would mean two on with one out and Carlos Pena coming to the dish. Instead, Joyce rounded second aggressively, allowing Nelson Cruz to gun a perfect throw to second base for the tag on the retreating Joyce. Pena walked and Ron Washington quickly yanked Holland in exchange for the flamethrowing Alexi Ogando. B.J. Upton’s rough series (0-10 to this point) witnessed a reprieve as he sent a ball into left field, tying the game and taking his throne as the Fresh Prince of Bay Air.

Matt Garza escaped a potential explosive situation a half inning later, retiring Nelson Cruz with two on and two out with an assist to a diving Jason Bartlett. Right place, right time for Bartlett, who seemingly tagged a sliding Elvis Andrus on a stolen base attempt earlier in the inning; Andrus was called safe, but replays later showed that he was indeed off the base at the time of the tag.

Ian Kinsler led off the bottom of the seventh with a homer and the reality of elimination became distinct once again. Then Dan Johnson came once more. The Great Pumpkin sent a Darren Oliver ball deep into right field. Free agent to be Carlos Pena connected with a single to right and again the equalizer scored. With two outs and Bartlett due up, Ron Washington went to his bullpen for closer Neftali Feliz. After walking Bartlett, John Jaso hit a ball to center that scored Pena. Jaso advanced to second and slid so hard that he uprooted the base.

Consecutive plays untethered the binding ropes of fear from the hands of Rays’ fans throughout the land. Carl Crawford’s going away party would not happen tonight and would not happen on a silent note. After robbing draft classmate Josh Hamilton on a difficult to field ball in left field, Crawford led off the ninth with a home run. Widening the Rays’ lead and chasing Feliz. Shortly thereafter, Pena made his presence felt once more and blasted a ball deep into the Texas’ night.

Rafael Soriano would enter and close the door. The Rays survive to play at least one more game. Game four’s probable matchup remains Wade Davis and Tommy Hunter.