Atlanta: Greg Norton (1/800k)

Gregory Blakemoor Norton possesses the best middle name in baseball, challenged only by Curt Montague Schilling. Norton started 2008 with Seattle, hitting .438/.500/.563 with 16 at-bats. Because Jose Vidro is awesome, the Mariners chose to deal him to Atlanta for a player to be named later. With the Braves, he would see an additional 171 at-bats, hitting .246/.361/.427 and convincing them into another contract. Offensively, his skillset lacks consistent homerun power, but does have excellent plate discipline. Since Norton is average at first base and poor elsewhere, this leaves the Braves with Norton as a pinch-hitter. Norton will be lucky to get 200 plate appearances, and even if he does, apathy is likely to reign supreme. Norton figures to teeter close to replacement level.

Detroit: Matt Treanor (1/750k)

Nichols Law of Catcher Defense states an inverse relationship between offensive performance and defensive reputation. Even as a catcher, Treanor’s not much of a hitter, which probably explains why he’s the “perfect back-up”. Observe this article, in which Todd Jones outlines Treanor’s strengths as: handles pitchers well, has cool wife, can really throw, dependable behind the dish. We don’t really know whether Treanor possesses inherent abilities in game calling that separate him from others, but even if you give him marginal credit for that, how much is that really worth? Even with five runs of defensive credit and a positional bonus Treanor’s not too valuable. His wife is an Olympic medalist, that’s neat. Treanor has thrown out about 25% of career attempted base thieves, so I guess he can throw. As for dependability, I suppose he doesn’t leave the plate until the final out of the half inning is recorded. That’s important.

Houston: Aaron Boone (1/750k)

Can you believe Aaron Boone will soon be 36? No? Well even less believable is that Boone and Geoff Blum appear to be your 2009 Houston Astros third base platoon. Yes, the Astros are going to a basic platoon based on the opposing pitchers hand. There’s not much to mess up here. You would expect Blum and Boone to show dominant statistics versus one of the hands, and with Boone being a right-handed hitter, he’s the one who beats up southpaws, right?

Boone:

Blum:

Oh, those splits just scream platoon partners.

The Astros are leaving third base up to a pair of 36-year-olds with bizarre splits that present a marginal upgrade over going with just one. Blum is a decent defender, and assuming he gets the lion share of plate appearances might keep this from falling to replacement level.

Adam Dunn raised some eyebrows last week when he declared the Chicago Cubs as his top choice. Dunn backed his preference by stating preferential financial details as “fair”. Could it be that Dunn is the rara avis of sluggers, the one willing to take less money than his counterparts to play for his top choice? During the season, Dunn’s former teammate Bronson Arroyo speculated Dunn would seek a nine-figure contract. Excuse Dunn’s cupidity, because those hopes were prior to the bottoming out of the market. What exactly would a fair deal for Dunn be?

The 29-year-old had a solid offensive season in 2008 and produced 29.7 wRAA. Not quite as good as 2007 (36.2), but it wasn’t because Dunn didn’t hit homeruns. In fact, Dunn has hit exactly 40 homeruns four straight seasons, and more than 40 five straight seasons. Instead, the drop in wOBA and slugging percentage seems to be tied with a .262 batting average on balls in play. Roughly 18% of batted balls were line drives, which suggests Dunn’s BABIP is a bit unlucky. Consider that if Dunn’s BABIP was simply .299 (using the somewhat tired .120 + LD% method of expected BABIP) he would’ve recorded 12 more hits with 318 non-homerun batted balls. Even if each of those were singles, Dunn’s slugging would have jumped more than 0.02 points.

Defensively Dunn is poor. Over the past three seasons Dunn has recorded UZRs of -11.1, -14.9, and -10.1 in left field. Dewan’s +/- has Dunn worth -58 plays since 2006, or -46.4 runs, an average of -15.5 runs per season. Somehow PMR put Dunn in the positive. Positioning? Fluke? Who knows. That still doesn’t save Dunn from a negative average. Call it -10.

Marcels doesn’t seem to like Dunn too much, a .383 wOBA and 20.5 wRAA. I can easily see Dunn outperforming that projection, and I’ll say 25 wRAA, which could be a wee pessimistic. Dunn seems like a safe bet to get around 650 plate appearances, and gives us the equation necessary for projecting Dunn’s WAR, between 2.6 and 2.8, depending on whether you use 22.5 or 20 runs.

I called it 2.7 WAR and figured Dunn will get around a four-year deal. Depending on how you feel about Dunn’s potential decline, I have Dunn worth roughly 45 million. Now, let’s see if 11.25 annually is “fair” to the Dunn camp.

Just a week ago the closers market brimmed with names like Francisco Rodriguez, Kerry Wood, and J.J. Putz. As you’re well aware, each of those are now off the market, leaving Brian Fuentes as the cream of the remaining crop, and a ton of rejuvenation projects abound. Then there’s Trevor Hoffman. A pending divorce settlement and encompassing money woes have left Hoffman separated from San Diego, a place where Hoffman is lionized as one of the great closers in modern history. Decorated with scoreboard graphics and an unforgettable entrance, Hoffman painted most of his dominance in San Diego over the last 15 seasons.

Hoffman is now 41 years old and coming off a season that many will characterize as disappointing. A 3.99 FIP is essentially a full run higher than Hoffman’s career FIP, with the culprit being 1.59 homeruns per nine innings and a 13.8 HR/FB%, more than twice his career 6.2%. Few will notice Hoffman’s 9.13 strikeouts per nine or 1.79 walks per nine, when taken together become a 5.11 K/BB ratio, the highest for Hoffman since 2004. It doesn’t appear Hoffman’s velocity or usage was altered either, still sitting around 86 on his fastball, 81 on his slider, and 74 on his change.

It would be easy to draw the comparison to Hoffman’s 2001, which had similar characteristics in homeruns, strikeouts, and FIP, but little stands to be gained. Hoffman’s more recent seasons indicate he’s still quite capable of pitching well, just as the decreased flyballs yet increased homerun percentage should indicate the homerun totals as fluke. The problem, however, is that Hoffman will no longer spend half of his games at Petco Park. It’s also important to note that while Hoffman pitched better on the road than at home last season, it’s in no way indicative of how Hoffman will fare elsewhere.

Marcels has Hoffman pitching 53 innings with a 4 FIP, making him an asset worth acquiring, especially on the cheap. With potential suitors like the Indians and Mets looking elsewhere, it seems conceivable that Hoffman could land in Detroit. At least we know he’s better than Todd Jones.

Pat Burrell is playing the role of “The Forgotten” thus far this off-season. The Phillies have all ready replaced Burell, an awful defender, with another awful fielder in Raul Ibanez. That would seem to indicate Burrell is almost certainly destined for a designated hitter role, leaving him with only a few options beyond Cincinnati and other defensively unaware National League teams. How much should teams be willing to pony up for the slugger, and what is his outlook?

We know that Burrell is 32 years old and hit for his lowest wOBA since 2004. Part of that should be credited to an unlucky BABIP, and perhaps a slightly down walk rate. Burrell did increase his ISO and even if you park adjust his numbers, he was still above average. Perhaps not surprisingly, Burrell is a player who actually gains value by moving to hitting full time. The major defensive metrics all reach the same conlusion: Burrell in left field is a really bad experience. The most generous, Chone, had Burrell at -14 runs, meanwhile UZR at -14.7 runs, PMR at -19.89 runs, and Dewan’s +/- at -20 plays, or -16 runs.

That’s an average of -16.15 runs, combine that with the positional adjustment of -7.5 and you’re looking at his offensive value being zapped. As DH Burrell gets penalized -17.5 runs. 23.65-17.5 is a 6.15 run swing, in other words, Burrell gains a half of a win by simply tucking his glove in a dark corner. That’s a substantial amount when you consider the DH positional penalty is trying to punish, not improve player value.

Marcels has Burrell continuing his slide (mostly age related) and slipping to .369 wOBA, or 18.7 offensive runs above average in 582 plate appearances. That makes him worth between 1.8 and 2 WAR. If Burrell can find a way into 645 plate appearances like 2008, raise those expectations to 2-2.2. That suggests Burrell should be worth between 9 to 11 million.

The Phillies chose against offering Burrell arbitration, meaning no draft picks will exchange hands. Certainly a pro, but there are some cons to signing Burrell as well. Most of those are associated with his age and potential for a quick collapse in skills. Any team desiring to add Burrell should attempt a contract covering one or two seasons. This would allow Burrell to test the market again before his mid-30’s, and gives the team a chance to avoid Burrell’s eventually collapse.

Perhaps the biggest non-tender surprise was that of former Houston Astros third baseman Ty Wigginton. Entering his final season of arbitration eligibility, Wigginton expected to make around seven million, making him too expensive for the Astros. The club attempted, and evidently failed, in shopping Wigginton around before non-tendering him last Friday. Thus far, the Giants seem to be the hot team associated with Wigginton.

Wigginton’s 2008 represents his finest offensive season. Hitting 23 homeruns in only 386 at-bats and boasting career high on-base and slugging percentages. Wigginton’s homeruns were driven off of a 18.5 HR/FB%, quite a bit higher than his 13.5% career average and previous high of 16.9%. Wigginton’s other rate statistics, like K% and BB% were for the most part what you would expect.

For the third consecutive season Wigginton’s swings out of the zone increased, this time up to nearly 33% of the time. Of course, Wigginton also got more aggressive within the zone, up to nearly 80%, and was seeing more first pitch strikes than previously. It’s also interesting to note that the pitch types and velocities that Wigginton was seeing were the same he saw in 2007, 2006, and 2005. I suppose the results were a bit better for him though.

In the field, Wigginton is not a very good defender. UZR has him at a generous -3.2 while PMR says -13.52. That’s an average of -8.36 runs and that’s with a career best UZR at third. Add a positional bonus for Wigginton playing third of 2.5, his 15 runs offensively, and the replacement modifier (depending on whether you use 22.5 or 20 runs) and Wigginton comes out as a 2.1-2.2 WAR player last season.

Unfortunately for the team that will sign Wigginton, he’s not quite that good. Sure, he’ll still belt 20 or so homeruns, but not at the rate he did last season, and that’s going to make him around half of his 2008 offensive worth. Marcels calls for 6.2 wRAA in 475 plate appearances; a WAR value between 1.4 and 1.5. Seven million is roughly open market value for a player like Wigginton, but there’s a chance some team sees him as a half of a win better than reality and pays him like such.

Bartolo Colon made seven starts with the Red Sox last season, collecting 39 innings, and pitching quite well. Colon’s 4.34 FIP was below American League average for starters (4.48) and his strikeout and walk rates were near vintage Colon levels. As you can see below from the two pretty graphs, Colon struck out about 6.20 per nine and walked a touch over 2.30.

Colon’s fastball sat around 92 and he prominently used it, just like old times, along with a slider and change. The Red Sox and Colon had a falling out when they planned to move him to the bullpen, so if a team does want the 36-year-old it’s going to be in a starter’s role. Unlike some other injured starters we’ll talk about, Colon has actually pitched in each of the past three seasons, and combined for about 70 innings last year. Despite having an even-split of fly and ground balls, Colon is a safe bet to allow a homerun per nine innings.

Back stiffness did land Colon on the disabled list, so a team considering signing Colon should anticipate at least one DL trip. The Sox paid Colon on a split contract, 1.25 million for his time in the majors, that’s a bargain, especially if he can eclipse the 100 inning mark. That’s no guarantee, but Colon is perhaps the safest bet of any injured pitchers. We also know that his stuff hasn’t been lost through injury, getting 6% swinging strikes, only a percent lower than 2005 total.

Colon’s worthy of another shot, the question is if anyone will give it to him.

Two Phillies signings:

Jamie Moyer 2/16
Chan Ho Park 1/2.5

Jamie Moyer was a nice story last year, recording his lowest FIP since 2003, when he was 40 years old, and seeing his strikeout rates sit above career average for the second consecutive season. Moyer also saw his lowest HR/FB% under his career total. Not much else changed, a slight bump in O-Swing%, and that’s it. Moyer’s almost certain to pitch worse than last year.

The bigger issue here is the length and money to a 46-year-old starting pitcher. The Phillies have a 26-year-old prospect named J.A. Happ who pitched well in limited exposure last season. Happ’s minor league numbers suggest he would be able to at least replicate Moyer’s 2007 or 2006 FIP, if not his 2008 totals. Happ is also going to cost the minimum, giving the champs some money to spend elsewhere if they wished. Signing Moyer seems pretty redundant and more of a signing for nostalgia (or in this case: championship) effect than anything, but we’ll see.

On we go to Chan Ho Park. I talked to Eric after rumors of the signing were coming out, and he informed me of the expectation of Park potentially competing for a rotation spot. Coincidentally that roster spot will go back to Moyer, and Park will land in the bullpen. Park reemerged on the scene last season after a brief stint with the Mets in 2007 and pitched decently; a 4.37 FIP in 95.3 innings. Park still found a way to give up more than a homerun per nine, despite spending his time in the spacious Dodgers Stadium, and a 78.2% strand rate (sure to regress) made his ERA look prettier than it is.

Interestingly, Park found a few extra notches on his fastball last season. Were as in the past Park’s fastball sat around 89, in 2008 his fastball was up to 93. Park’s slider also benefited from increased velocity, which raises the question: where did the velocity come from? Park didn’t face a ton of high leverage situations last season (1.01 pLI), which should be re-emulated by the Phillies. That leaves Park as a middle reliever, and just leaves you wondering if the Phils could’ve plugged in R.J. Swindle instead and expected similar results.

For five years and 82.5 million. That’s 16.5 million annually, or paying for 3.3 WAR (on a 4.84 mil/WAR scale). Eric covered the Yankees potential super-rotation yesterday, and it appears the Yankees dreams (and everyone else’s nightmare) is becoming a reality.

Kudos to Dave for nailing the years/money here, A.J. Burnett is a 3 WAR starter, and he’s being paid as one. This is a buyers market, and the Yankees are absolutely thriving in it. A lot can be said for spending money and a lot more should be said for Brian Cashman and the Yankees paying these free agents exactly what they’re worth. Of course, the Yankees are one of the few teams who can pay what they’re worth, but that might be a market inefficiency within itself.

What does this mean for the other American League East teams? Well, it pressures the Red Sox into signing Mark Teixeira, and the Rays to get a designated hitter. If we assume the Yankees can work out the kinks with Milwaukee and trade for Mike Cameron and place him in center, their lineup looks something like this:

CA Jorge Posada
1B Nick Swisher
2B Robinson Cano
3B Alex Rodriguez
SS Derek Jeter
LF Johnny Damon
CF Mike Cameron
RF Xavier Nady
DH Hideki Matsui

Marcels projects those nine players to be worth 82.2 offensive runs and seemingly decent defensively. If Cano and Swisher bounce back and the lineup stays relatively healthy, you’re looking at a good lineup, and if they splurge for Teixeira or Manny Ramirez (as a DH) things get really hectic for opposing pitchers. There’s still talk of Andy Pettitte returning, and if not him, possibly another starting pitcher, and that would indicate the Yankees still possess quite a bit of expendable cash.

Much like with Pat Burrell and Raul Ibanez (Eric will have more on that signing later), Bobby Abreu’s suitors have to understand and account his defensive shortcomings in order to accurately project his worth. Jon Heyman is reporting the Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, and Tampa Bay Rays as potential suitors for the soon to be 35-year-old. The Angels and Rays plan on using Abreu as a designated hitter while the Dodgers and Cubs want to use Abreu in left and right field respectively.

With the exception of 2007, Abreu’s wRAA has exceeded 20 each season since 1997, his first part-time season in the majors. Last year Abreu notched 22.4, an while Abreu is not quite the hitter he was in the late 1990’s or early 2000’s, Marcels still has him projected at 13.3. As a DH, Abreu’s value is going to come near teammate Jason Giambi’s value, but as a corner outfielder some team is throwing away money.

UZR has Abreu at -25.9 over 150 games, PMR at -12, Chone at -11, and Dewan’s +/- at -25 plays (-22 runs), for an average of -15 to -17 runs defensively. Noticeably that all but wipes away Abreu’s offensive value and we have yet to apply a positional adjustment of -7.5 runs or a replacement level adjustment (20*(612/700) which result in Abreu being worth 0.7 WAR. However as a DH, Abreu shoots up slightly more than a half-win to 1.3 WAR. That’s the difference in market value of about three million, and if Abreu repeats his 2008 performance he’ll be worth over 2 WAR.

For those NL teams without the DH role at their disposal, signing Bobby Abreu is going to result in some less than optimal results. That suggests both teams should aim elsewhere, or look within their organization for their next corner outfielder, but as we discovered with Raul Ibanez, not all teams have a firm understanding of how defensive shortcomings can effect total value.

Nationals: Terrell Young RHP, formerly of the Reds.

Naturally, Jim Bowden takes a Red. Young is 23 and spent last season in High-A ball. Young’s FIPs have improved in increments, but his strikeout and walk rates are bad, and that is bad meaning bad not bad meaning good. From rookie ball up: 7.71 BB/9 (23.3 IP), 8.10 (6.6), 5.60 (35.3), 5.26 (25.6), and 3.48 (33.6). Young is a career reliever and throws his fastball hard.

Mariners: Reegie Corona, MIF, formerly of the Yankees

Corona gets the award for “Name most likely to be misspelled”. In Double-A Corona hit .274/.345/.365, which is a close mimic of his career line, .264/.336/.336. Corona also stole some bases, and was 24 for 28. Dave likens him to the Mariners new version of Willie Bloomquist.

Padres: Everth Cabrera, MIF, formerly of the Rockies

Another young middle infielder, Cabrera has yet to touch Double-A, but has some success in the lower levels. Most notable about Cabrera are his steal totals: 104 of 132, or about 79%. Of his seven career homeruns, six came in 2008. He’ll probably see some time with the Padres, if only in a role similar to Corona.

Pirates: Donald Veal, LHP, formerly of the Cubs

Veal throws a mid-90’s fastball and has control issues. The Pirates seem to love taking gambles on those types and did so last year as well with Evan Meek. Considering their alternatives, it’s easy to see Veal sticking all season, perhaps as John Grabow’s replacement.

Orioles: Lou Palmisano, C, formerly of the Brewers

Injuries zapped Palmisano’s 2008, limiting him to a little over 100 at-bats. The Orioles later traded him to the Houston Astros for cash. In the minors Palmisano possesses a career .760 OPS,

Amongst some other notable picks:
The Mets selected RHP Darren O’Day from the Angels.
The Brewers selected RHP Eduardo Morlan from the Rays.
The Diamondbacks selected C James Skelton from the Tigers.