Senior Parking in Philly
Two Phillies signings:
Jamie Moyer 2/16
Chan Ho Park 1/2.5
Jamie Moyer was a nice story last year, recording his lowest FIP since 2003, when he was 40 years old, and seeing his strikeout rates sit above career average for the second consecutive season. Moyer also saw his lowest HR/FB% under his career total. Not much else changed, a slight bump in O-Swing%, and that’s it. Moyer’s almost certain to pitch worse than last year.
The bigger issue here is the length and money to a 46-year-old starting pitcher. The Phillies have a 26-year-old prospect named J.A. Happ who pitched well in limited exposure last season. Happ’s minor league numbers suggest he would be able to at least replicate Moyer’s 2007 or 2006 FIP, if not his 2008 totals. Happ is also going to cost the minimum, giving the champs some money to spend elsewhere if they wished. Signing Moyer seems pretty redundant and more of a signing for nostalgia (or in this case: championship) effect than anything, but we’ll see.
On we go to Chan Ho Park. I talked to Eric after rumors of the signing were coming out, and he informed me of the expectation of Park potentially competing for a rotation spot. Coincidentally that roster spot will go back to Moyer, and Park will land in the bullpen. Park reemerged on the scene last season after a brief stint with the Mets in 2007 and pitched decently; a 4.37 FIP in 95.3 innings. Park still found a way to give up more than a homerun per nine, despite spending his time in the spacious Dodgers Stadium, and a 78.2% strand rate (sure to regress) made his ERA look prettier than it is.
Interestingly, Park found a few extra notches on his fastball last season. Were as in the past Park’s fastball sat around 89, in 2008 his fastball was up to 93. Park’s slider also benefited from increased velocity, which raises the question: where did the velocity come from? Park didn’t face a ton of high leverage situations last season (1.01 pLI), which should be re-emulated by the Phillies. That leaves Park as a middle reliever, and just leaves you wondering if the Phils could’ve plugged in R.J. Swindle instead and expected similar results.
> Park’s slider also benefited from increased velocity, which raises the question: where did the velocity come from?
Bless you for not using “begs the question.”
That begs the question, why didn’t I?
Moyer is probably a nostalgia signing… but not one I feel bad about. The guy who skipped school to go to the Phillies parade in 1980 pitching in the world series for the same team 28 years later was in my opinion one of the best stories of the postseason. It’s too bad the umps kept him from getting the W. Obviously at 46 you have to wonder what he’s got left, though.
If Park’s velocity stays up, he’s a decent addition. CBP is smaller than Dodger Stadium, but having the Phillies fielding behind him is an enormous upgrade (80 runs better than the Dodgers by UZR), and the 14% HR/FB rate is a touch on the high side. Moyer is 46, Myers is wildly inconsistent, and Hamels threw over 250 innings last year so it’s worth having some more guys around to make starts if someone gets hurt. Happ is okay but Eaton is clearly not a major league pitcher and unless he develops another decent pitch, Kendrick isn’t either.
I read something about Park working with Tom House last off-season. Don’t know where I found it.
don, you won’t feel bad about the Moyer signing until he goes out there and gets smoked. Then you will, and thats the point.
Swindle is not on the phillies anymore (Brewers).
Phillies might be keeping Happ to make a move, and Moyer’s deal is 2 years for only a guaranteed 13 million. Every other pitcher on the team has said that Moyer is the player that they all look to and have learned the most from, which could also be a factor in re-signing him. Isn’t it obvious that its likely Moyer won’t pitch as well as the REALLY good year he had last year?
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
No, the point is the Phils have pitching depth:
Hamels
Myers
Blanton
Moyer
Kendrick
Happ
Carrasco
Park
Eaton
I added Eaton for laughs, but the truth of the matter he is the 9th starter. Don is saying we have depth. And if Moyer gets shelled? Fine, we have Happ. If he doesn’t and continues to get craftier? It’s a great signing. Either way, he’s a fan favorite and not all signings come down to the numbers.
I know that $8 mill would be nice to have in pursuance of Lowe, but I think Carrasco is closer to claiming that 5th starter job than people think. The kid had a great ’08, complemented by a strong showing in Venezuela.
I’m not sure I’m following the original post. Moyer and Happ are both expected to be int he rotation.
Hamels/Myers/Moyer/Blanton/Happ or possibly Carrasco. Kendrick has an outside chance but most likely he needs to go to AAA and work on his stuff.
Guys, you all seem to be operating under the assumption that Kendrick is guaranteed the 5th spot… which he is not.
Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Blanton. And then the fifth spot is up for grabs between Happ, Kendrick, Carrasco, Park, etc.
My money is on Happ.
Agreed, B and Eric. I’m of the opinion that Kendrick’s peripherals are so poor that he should learn a new pitch, or otherwise do something drastic to change the pitcher he is. And he can only really do that in Lehigh Valley.
Bill Baer made the argument for Happ over at Baseball Digest Daily. A worthwhile read, especially for Phils fans.
I found your blog on google and read a few of your other posts. I just added you to my Google News Reader. Keep up the good work. Look forward to reading more from you in the future.