Saturday night’s affair marks the first of (potentially) three games where the Rays face elimination in this series. The 2001 Yankees are the only home team to lose the first two games of the series and wind up advancing. History does not bode well for the Rays and nor do simulations or probabilities. Say, for instance, the Rays hold a 60% chance of winning each game. They do not, but say they do. That would result in about a 22% shot of winning the series.

Certain human beings like to say that games are not played on calculators (or spreadsheets) and instead are played on the field. Those human beings are correct, and so here we are, with Matt Garza and Colby Lewis dueling in the Arlington dusk. Words cannot express how tempting the idea of invoking wordplay about gunslingers and the whole Wild West lexicon is – I mean, I just used dueling and dusk – but alas, Lewis slings no heated-metal cylinders and ruins the whole scheme.

Even without the Texas heat, Lewis held the superior strikeout rates to Garza, while also besting him in every run metric featured on FanGraphs. That’s a bad sign for Tampa Bay’s chances, but hey, Lewis throws with this right arm. That means the return of Matt Joyce to the starting lineup. Joyce hit .263/.388/.526 against righties this year, and could slide into the lineup behind Evan Longoria. Carl Crawford, who could be playing in his final game while wearing Rays garb, hit .334/.381/.554 versus righties this year too. Carlos Pena, John Jaso, Dan Johnson seem likely to join the starting lineup as well.

Those numbers do not guarantee success in a single game, but you know, after the first two games, can the offense really play any worse? If the Rays do win, it’ll be interesting to see if the Rays stick with Wade Davis in game four or slide to David Price, making James Shields the default starter for a potential game five with the entire staff available in relief. That’s getting ahead of the count though – something the Rays’ offense hasn’t done enough this series.

Expect the spotlight to be on the check-swing call in the fifth inning. Michael Young appeared to show intent of a swing on a Chad Qualls’ pitch. At least, it appeared that way to everyone but the first base umpire, who ruled that Young did not swing. Young homered and the Rangers never looked back. Young’s homer added .153 in win probability, shifting the Rays’ chances of winning from 22.8% to 7.5%. It’s impossible to say whether Qualls escapes the jam (although Randy Choate likely would have entered to face Josh Hamilton) or if the Rays would have plated a run later on. As such, speculation is rather pointless.

The fear over James Shields taking the mound proved to be mostly overblown as well. He failed to go five innings while allowing two extra base hits (a homer and a double), two groundball singles, and hitting Matt Treanor twice. Shields struck two out and walked none. He did not pitch brilliantly, but well enough that he kept the team in the game. The first run he allowed was a microcosm of his season. After hitting Treanor and having him advance on a Julio Bobron grounder and Elvis Andrus single, Shields made an errant pickoff throw, allowing the sluggish catcher to cross the plate easily. Some blame for that gaffe goes to first baseman Ben Zobrist too.

Joe Maddon pulled Shields in order to have a groundball pitcher face a groundball hitter in a double play situation. The added bonus being that Hamilton would not bat until the next inning and without runners on.

The real goat of the game (and series) continues to be the Rays’ offense.

Evan Longoria had two at-bats with a runner on while the game was competitive and reached out of the zone both times, recording nondescript outs. Only three batters held positive WPA for the Rays in this game and one of those (Dan Johnson) entered as a pinch hitter. Meanwhile, one of the other positive WPA hitters, Willy Aybar, joined the roster today, replacing the injured Rocco Baldelli. The Rays two-through-five hitters combined to go 0-11 with a walk and four strikeouts. Leadoff hitter Jason Bartlett was the only Ray to reach twice, once with a hit and the next time after being struck by a pitch.

A few media folk wondered aloud why Jeff Niemann didn’t start the game during his relief appearance where he struck out four batters in three innings while allowing two baserunners. Classic case of results bias, as those same folks would have questioned the decision to start a guy who made seven starts after returning from the disabled list and allowed 36 earned runs in 32 innings pitched.

The Rays will play the franchise’s first must-win Divisional Series game Saturday evening in Arlington. The probable matchup is Matt Garza and Colby Lewis.

Many pundits will label this as a must-win affair for the Rays. That is not entirely correct since this is only a must-win in order to avoid must-win games in this series until the weekend. For this must-win-to-avoid-a-must-win, the Rays turn to their most experienced starter, the elderly James Shields.

Shields is not without his own childish controversies. Just ask the local radio caller who suggested the Rays’ braintrust turned to him in game two only because of his Jewish beliefs. You see, the Rays management includes some names that end in “man” and “stein” and therefore they are just part of one large Zionist conspiracy to overtake the world. Shields, being from California with curly hair, is just another example of the Jewish-based agenda. The host dispatched Mr. Rick Sanchez’s concerns by pointing out that Gabe Kapler – a member of the Rays who is actually, um, Jewish – is nowhere to be found on the roster despite his beliefs.

Matt Garza is so much better than Shields that it’s evident why some would resort to truth telling like our friend on the radio. Garza had the better FI … well, not quite, but his xFIP was … not better either. He did have the better ERA though, and hey he throws harder. Shields didn’t even have a better ERA during the 2008 playoffs than … well, gosh, yes he did.

Shields’ problems this season are rooted in home runs and batting average on balls in play inflation. There’s no need to hand wave those away as just flukes because Shields has always had a slightly above league average rate in both, but not to this extent. Color me skeptical on Shields’ supposed flaring hittability given his career best strikeout rates. There are some thoughts that his fastball command has slipped, perhaps due to overthrowing, but at the end of the day that stuff is pretty hard to prove.

In reality, Shields over Garza means next to nothing unless the Rays have to go to David Price in game four. It’s the next series where the two slot tends to ensure two starts. Besides, Shields appears to match up with the Rangers well, as Jason Hanselman shows here, using the Rangers’ contact and slugging percentages based on pitch types. That will only come into play if Shields uses his changeup, something he did little of last time out in a truly weird outing against Kansas City.

Expect the Rays to roll with mostly the same lineup against C.J. Wilson, who – at least check – is not Cliff Lee. That should boost offensive expectations and morale, even if only a little bit.

David Price gave up more than three runs in only three of his 31 starts this season. He gave up five today in his first career postseason start. Two solo homers, Jeff Francoeur and Vladimir Guerrero doubles, and a Bengie Molina blooper to right field plated the runners, dirtying what otherwise could have been an impressive stat line that includes eight strikeouts and zero walks.

Clearly Price was not at his absolute best today, but a lot of credit should be given to Cliff Lee. He of great command showed it, going seven innings without allowing a walk and giving up only five hits. Ben Zobrist had two of those hits, which happened to be the only two of extra base variety. A third inning double and seventh inning homer represent the highlights of the Rays’ day. He also struck a ball hard off Neftali Feliz that went for an out. Zobrist hit the ball with more authority today than he had in a while. One has to wonder whether his back – which caused him to miss some time – is finally healthy or if those three at-bats were simply an aberration.

In the preview, I mentioned Carlos Pena’s struggles versus southpaws and sure enough they were evident throughout today’s game. Bryan Smith wrote this about the most notable aspect of Pena’s game (although he had some issues receiving the ball on defense as well):

It didn’t feel that way early, as Cliff Lee came out firing almost exclusively fastballs, keeping his plus (or plus-plus) cutter, curve and change all in his back pocket. It almost back-fired in the first, as Lee loaded the bases with one out and Carlos Pena at the plate. After falling behind in the count 2-1, Lee threw an inside fastball up and in. Home plate umpire Tim Welke looked as if he was going to call the pitch a ball, but after Carlos Pena argued that the pitch hit him, Welke called a foul tip strike. Rather than plating the game’s first run or at least gaining a 3-1 count, Pena fell behind 2-2, and would strike out on the seventh pitch of the at-bat.

Rocco Baldelli then came up and did the same in an even more meager manner. I don’t find myself awestruck by many of the Rays’ decisions, but the one to have Baldelli – who did not hit well at any level this season – on the postseason roster over Willy Aybar or Brad Hawpe seems questionable at best and a classic example of wishcasting at worst. Baldell is a great story, but not such a great player that he should be treated with blind loyalty.

The Rays will attempt to beat the Rangers’ other lefty starter tomorrow as they try to rally behind James Shields to avoid must win scenarios beginning in game three.

The playoffs get underway in a few hours live from St. Petersburg. David Price will make his first career postseason start against the Rangers while Cliff Lee declares war on batmen as if he is The Joker (and he might be, check out the dastardly smile on this guy). Lee’s tendency to give offenses a collective Glasgow smile raises the importance of Price holding the Rangers off the board. It also makes one wonder how the Rays will possibly score.

One cannot spill ink over this game without mentioning the Rays’ 3-0 record versus Lee. But Lee held them to a line of .253/.265/.347 while striking out 25 batters in just 24 innings pitched and did not allow a home run while — and perhaps more startling for this particular lineup – walking only two batters. Nearly all of the Rays’ runs were created in an emasculating manner for one of the better offenses in the American League, yet credit their run prevention unit for keeping Lee’s squads (twice Seattle, once Texas) silent on the boards long enough to scratch paint off the Titanic’s deck.

Assuming Joe Maddon stays consistent in his approach to southpaws, then B.J. Upton and Jason Bartlett will bat first and second. This is relevant because when Upton delivers offensively, it usually comes at the expense of a lefty. In fact, his .268/.381/.538 line results in the 20th best ISO against lefties this season, ahead of names like Mark Teixeira, Nelson Cruz, Miguel Cabrera, and all of his teammates. Bartlett’s .355 on-base percentage against lefties this year is no fluke and while he provides no pop, he does a nice job of making contact, leading to some potential hit-and-run opportunities if they so present themselves.

Evan Longoria will finally return and one has to think Kelly Shoppach (owner of a .455 slugging percentage versus lefties this season) and Sean Rodriguez (.292/.375/.442 in his first full major league season against lefties) will find themselves taking swings at Lee tomorrow as well. Perhaps the biggest question mark is Carlos Pena, who hit .179/.316/.359 against same-handed pitchers and looked awful while doing so. The Rays’ roster guarantees to be flexible when it comes to dexterity and position, but even they cannot platoon every position.

Given what we know about Lee, that depth might be more vital in this game than the rest.

The Twins rotation will be groundball heavy, with Scott Baker continuing to battle elbow soreness and Kevin Slowey on his way to the bullpen. The impeccable Francisco Liriano, the infamous Carl Pavano, the unheralded Brian Duensing, and the predictable Nick Blackburn will start the games for the American League Central Champions throughout at least the Divisional Series. This could lead to some frustration for opposing teams as each of those guys has a groundball rate of at least 50% this season. Their groundball dominance goes beyond this season, too:

Pitcher Career GB Rate
Liriano 48.2%
Pavano 46.0%
Duensing 50.0% (starting and relief)
Blackburn 46.7%

Part of the benefit in generating ground balls is the raised possibility of a double play. The league average this season is a twin killing in 12% of the opportunities. Liriano (9%) is the only starter who falls well below that mark with Pavano (11%) close and Duensing (16%) along with Blackburn (17%) well above the mark. These fellows will be pitching to one Derek Jeter, who happens to be amongst the tops in the league when it comes to rolling into double plays.

Twenty-two times in 120 opportunities results in 18%. That is a double play opportunity every six plate appearances. An absurd rate from a leadoff hitter and a tribute to how often Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson reach in front of The Captain. Only Lance Berkman has a higher GIDP rate than Jeter on the Yankees, and his comes in a small sample size and without support from his past to legitimize this as a chronic issue. Robinson Cano and Austin Kearns are the other two Yankees with above league average GIDP rates.

It’s not unreasonable to think that at some point in this series Jeter will come up with Gardner or Granderson on first base and less than two outs against the Twins’ starting pitcher. Do not be surprised if the end-result is a decrease in the Yankees’ run expectancy and an increase in Jeter-related snark.

In his second (and final) season as Reds manager, Davey Johnson led his 1995 squad to its first playoff berth since their 1990 World Series victory. He then saw his team advance to the National League Championship Series against the juggernaut Braves. A sweep resulted with Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Greg Maddux inflicting most of the damage and Steve Avery finishing the series with six shutout innings. Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels might not be on the level of those first three names, but the Reds have their hands full if they hope to engage the Braves in a NLCS rematch 15 years later.

Everyone knows Halladay’s numbers are impressive. His name is equally intimidating. How does he do it? Superb fastball command allows Halladay to use his fastballs nearly three-fourths of the time while avoiding the middle of the plate and the upper part of the zone. Imagine the strikezone as a series of nine boxes. Now ignore the top row and draw a block-shaped U in the bottom two rows. Within that figure is where Halladay locates 75-80% of the time he throws a pitch in the zone.

Unlike many pitchers who use their changeups exclusively against opposite-handed batters, Halladay throws his off-speed pitch versus both hands at equal rates. Same with his breaking pitches. He lives to throw down and in (or away) against southpaws and northpaws alike. It should come as no surprise that Halladay’s career groundball percentage is over 50% versus both and nearing 60% versus lefties. The Book suggests that groundball pitchers generally own groundball hitters (and the same holds true for flyball pitchers and hitters), meaning Halladay is a nightmare for groundball-heavy lineups.

While the Reds are near the bottom of the league in team offensive groundball percentage, their lineup does not seem to be one built for combat with Halladay (not that many are). The Reds’ leadoff hitter is Brandon Phillips, who happens to be an extreme groundball hitter. Phillips’ career .705 OPS versus pitchers with groundhog stuff suggests he falls into the “generally” category when it comes to groundball hitters being muted by groundball pitchers.

From there, the Reds will bat Orlando Cabrera second. Now, far be it from me to question Dusty Baker’s lineup-making expertise, but Cabrera’s season-best on-base percentage is the .322 that he posted in late May. Cabrera could not even manage an above-average on-base percentage after the first few plate appearances on the season. That leads to Joey Votto who has the same career OPS versus groundball and flyball pitchers (.934) and then a combination of Scott Rolen, Jay Bruce, and Jonny Gomes which tend to fare better than the guys in front of Votto, but not as good as Votto himself. Drew Stubbs and both catchers are also groundball hitters (although only slightly for Stubbs) which plays into Halladay’s hands as well.

Obviously that does not guarantee every groundball hitter as an out or anything, but the Reds have a collective line against groundballers this season of .253/.324/.390 compared to .272/.340/.450 versus flyball pitchers and .284/.346/.452 versus neutral pitchers. That gives them the lowest OPS against groundballers among NL playoff squads and places them at 16th overall. Unsurprisingly, Halladay completed 17 innings against the Reds this season with 19 strikeouts, one walk, and four earned runs. Too small of a sample size to mean much at all, but given what we know about both sides, there could very well be a sequel to those starts in this series.

The Rays-Rangers portion of the American League playoffs is set to kickoff Wednesday. Michael Young might be the Rangers’ fifth or sixth best hitter depending on the day (and Lupe Fiasco’s favorite baseball player) but do not be surprised if he becomes a person of interest during the series, and not necessarily because of his performance either.

The Rays are notorious for taking advantage of every possible benefit – some would call it The Extra 2% — which includes shifting just about any batter they can. Teams usually only employ shifts against pull-heavy batters like J.D. Drew, David Ortiz, and Travis Hafner, but the Rays even shifted for Derek Jeter earlier this season.

Young and Jeter share many attributes, most notably as offensive-minded infielders with histories of defensive mockery. Both bat right-handed as well, but tend to go the other way and up the middle more than most. Since 2008, 73% of Young’s batted balls have ended up in center or right field. When Young does pull the ball it’s been of the groundball variety- roughly 70% of the time. He tends to hit the ball on the ground up the middle and in the air to right.

What that means for a potential shift is intuitive. The Rays would shift their outfield toward the right field foul line, perhaps placing their right fielder a couple of steps from the line. Their infield could remain in the same position, or they could slide toward right field as well. Evan Longoria would become responsible for the left side of the infield while Jason Bartlett played up the middle and Ben Zobrist moved a few steps to his left.

By playing the percentages, the Rays leave Young a tantalizing amount of open space on the left side of the field. All he has to do is pull or tap a ball in that direction and he could have a double, or who knows, maybe a triple. To assume Young’s swing is the only thing changing would be an oversimplification as his mindset has to alter too. If the Rays are aligned with the eggs in the basket of him going the other way then they are probably pitching him away, away, and away, right? But what if the Rays anticipate Young thinking that and bust him inside to catch him off guard?

It is hard to quantify exactly how much that game theory matters (if it matters at all), and further complicates a basic defensive philosophy. The only thing we know for sure is that Young facing the Rays’ shifted defense will be a battle of wits and god-given ability on one of baseball’s grandest stages.

Will Venable’s injury allowed Matt Stairs to make a few starts for the Padres in left field this week. Those starts resulted in enough playing time to push Stairs over 100 plate appearances for the season. Thus marking the fifteenth consecutive season where Stairs has reached the plateau, a streak that captures the majority of his major league playing time.

Stairs’ role has varied quite a bit over that span, as is the case with any non-elite player over a decade and a half of playing. In recent seasons, he’s been nothing but a glamorized pinch hitter – inspiring the great t-shirts with the everlasting “In Case of Emergency, Use Stairs” slogan – but he went through a period where he was a worthwhile designated hitter and even a corner outfielder despite following what some may describe as Rod Beck’s dietary habits.

Despite dwindling playing time, Stairs has rarely delivered offensive mediocrity. Stairs’ wOBA has never slipped below .320 for a full season during the streak and three of his five seasons below .330 have occurred since 2008. This year’s .323 comes in an arctic environment known to leave bats frost bitten, so it can be excused to a degree, but at this point the 42-year-old is all about not slipping away suddenly instead of whether he can improve.

Will there be a roster spot for Stairs next year? I’d like to think so. In a season where Jim Thome has played pat-a-cake with the hands of time, one would hope Stairs can stick around for another season or two, though maybe not long enough so that he becomes a burden on a team because nobody wants to live in a world where Stairs can’t hit.

Juan Uribe is eight plate appearances away from topping 1,000 for his Giants’ career. An absurd twist to Uribe’s career has him playing the role of starting shortstop on a playoff team in the year 2010. Absurd in the sense that Uribe very easily could be out of the majors right now. His 2007 and 2008 seasons were downright horrible. Rarely do defensive-first middle infielders nearing the wrong side of 30 continue getting looks when their defense seems to be on the brink of extinction.

Uribe signed a minor league deal with the Giants in January of 2009 to salvage his career. For a man with the reputation as a stranger to conditioning and offense alike, Uribe hit better than he had previously in his career. Perhaps giving flashbacks to his outstanding 2004 season with Chicago in which he hit 23 home runs and contributed a career best ISO as well.

The 31-year-old has not mimicked that performance this season, but his wOBA is a decent .319. One of the main differences between this Uribe and the one that bombed out of Chicago is his willingness to take a walk. Working free passes in nearly 8% of his plate appearances may not seem like a big deal, but Uribe has the finest walk-to-strikeout ratio of his career when combined with a slightly reduced strikeout rate.

His position and defensive prowess fail to translate into great speed. For his career, he only has 39 stolen bases (with 37 caught stealings) and that helps to translate into a .282 BABIP. This year, only a little over 25% of his balls in play are turning into hits. The rate is not out of reach given his recent history and reliance upon hitting balls into the air, but Uribe’s contact skills are probably better than his .246 batting average suggests.

A free agent at season’s end, Uribe could potentially get a multiple-year offer if a team is willing to put his history of portly disappointments behind them.