ALDS Game Two Review: Tampa Bay
Expect the spotlight to be on the check-swing call in the fifth inning. Michael Young appeared to show intent of a swing on a Chad Qualls’ pitch. At least, it appeared that way to everyone but the first base umpire, who ruled that Young did not swing. Young homered and the Rangers never looked back. Young’s homer added .153 in win probability, shifting the Rays’ chances of winning from 22.8% to 7.5%. It’s impossible to say whether Qualls escapes the jam (although Randy Choate likely would have entered to face Josh Hamilton) or if the Rays would have plated a run later on. As such, speculation is rather pointless.
The fear over James Shields taking the mound proved to be mostly overblown as well. He failed to go five innings while allowing two extra base hits (a homer and a double), two groundball singles, and hitting Matt Treanor twice. Shields struck two out and walked none. He did not pitch brilliantly, but well enough that he kept the team in the game. The first run he allowed was a microcosm of his season. After hitting Treanor and having him advance on a Julio Bobron grounder and Elvis Andrus single, Shields made an errant pickoff throw, allowing the sluggish catcher to cross the plate easily. Some blame for that gaffe goes to first baseman Ben Zobrist too.
Joe Maddon pulled Shields in order to have a groundball pitcher face a groundball hitter in a double play situation. The added bonus being that Hamilton would not bat until the next inning and without runners on.
The real goat of the game (and series) continues to be the Rays’ offense.
Evan Longoria had two at-bats with a runner on while the game was competitive and reached out of the zone both times, recording nondescript outs. Only three batters held positive WPA for the Rays in this game and one of those (Dan Johnson) entered as a pinch hitter. Meanwhile, one of the other positive WPA hitters, Willy Aybar, joined the roster today, replacing the injured Rocco Baldelli. The Rays two-through-five hitters combined to go 0-11 with a walk and four strikeouts. Leadoff hitter Jason Bartlett was the only Ray to reach twice, once with a hit and the next time after being struck by a pitch.
A few media folk wondered aloud why Jeff Niemann didn’t start the game during his relief appearance where he struck out four batters in three innings while allowing two baserunners. Classic case of results bias, as those same folks would have questioned the decision to start a guy who made seven starts after returning from the disabled list and allowed 36 earned runs in 32 innings pitched.
The Rays will play the franchise’s first must-win Divisional Series game Saturday evening in Arlington. The probable matchup is Matt Garza and Colby Lewis.
Take away the check swing and at best the Rays lose 2-0. They’ll complain and whine about it but you don’t win if you can’t score.
1 run over 2 games at home is no way to go through life, son.
Still don’t think Maddon is helping. Calling Qualls a ‘groundball’ pitcher seems like a fig leaf for the particular decision, disputed check swing notwithstanding. One could easily call him Chad “7.32 ERA, and he pitched the day before” Qualls, and in that potentially critical situation, is he really the best option?
57.6% GB-rate in his career does not seem like a “fig leaf” whatever the hell that means.
“fig leaf”… covers the nasty truth 🙂
I’m really not surprised, as I’ve felt TB is overrated. Not much hitting after Longoria and Crawford; guys like Pena, Bartlett, and Zobrist have not nearly been as productive as they were last season at the plate. Price is great and Shields (by FIP standards) is decent, but the rest of their rotation leaves a lot to be desired, again, at least based on saber-standards.
Texas’ 1-2-3 punch of Lee-Wilson-Lewis is very, very good and their lineup is pretty well-balanced.
Game Two Review Tampa: — The Rays somehow lost even though we are the better team and Joe Madden CAN NOT be second guessed. He is really really smart. Clearly Tampa lost because of a vast conspiracy perpetuated by the Umpires against the Devil Rays and their 15K fans.
The Rays are hitting .125 against Ranger pitching and making mental mistakes. The check swing is the least of their worries.
5-game series are so unfair, yet so fun!
I saw two different replays of the check swing, and neither was at the correct (90% angle). One looks like a swing, one looks like a check. Regardless, that is a coin-flip call. Get well soon!
This.
It was probably a swing. With the CF view you couldn’t tell (as you often can’t). The shot shown from TBS and ESPN replayed 1000 times was from behind the batter not directly at the side which would make the bat appear to be further in front of the plate then it actually is. That said it was still likely a swing just not as clear cut as the replay showed.
It’s like ESPN replaying the Berkman 2-2 ball/strike call with that misleading off center camera angle which makes the pitch look like it is nearly down the inside heart of the plate. The pitch was a strike, but it was more or less right on the corner and ESPN, et.al make it a crime against humanity as the most obvious blown call in the history of sports.
Will we get a review for the Rangers?
apparently not… east coast bias 🙂
This series is OVER! the Devil Rays have the Rangers right where they want them — overconfident (and hopefully sleepy). Clearly the Devil Rays overabundance of talent makes writing a review of the Rangers a mute point.
We have run 1,000 of monte carlo simulations, and in 65% of them the Rays win, therefore, no need exists to write a Rangers preview or review.
moot?
They probably told Carson to write the Rangers reviews and previews and gave him a word count for the series. He undoubtedly plans to save every one of those words for Colby Lewis’s start.
Arg, mute was a pun (a bad one apparently) given that they didn’t write anything on the Rangers, they were silent, the Rangers have no voice at Fangraphs, etc.
oh, i get it now