Let’s be honest: Dylan Cease is in the general baseball consciousness to such an extent right now because it’s all we have. The free agent class of 2023-24 was weak to begin with, and Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto have already signed. Juan Soto is now a Yankee. Tyler Glasnow got traded. Cease is such a focus because the shiniest free agents are gone and because if your team isn’t going to spend any money – Hi there, O’s! – he’s the best imaginable improvement.

Cease is a good pitcher with flaws. He’s a strikeout machine thanks to his glorious slider, and he’s made every start available to him for four straight years. He also walks far too many batters – partially thanks to his glorious slider – and despite sitting 95-97 mph, his fastball is remarkably hittable. Add that all up, and his aggregate numbers over that four-year span – 3.58 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 12.3 WAR in 585 innings – are excellent. But he always feels one bad start away from regression, one batter realizing that slider is unhittable away from a six-walk outing.

All that is to say that Cease probably isn’t the no-doubt ace that his 2022 season portended, but he’s a very good pitcher nonetheless. Steamer thinks he’s somewhere between the 21st and 40th best pitcher in baseball, which isn’t as good as his results, but I’m willing to take the over on that projection because a lot of it seems to rely on his home run prevention declining meaningfully. If your team has Cease as their second-best pitcher in 2024, they’re probably ecstatic about the top of their rotation. If they have him penciled in as their best pitcher, they might still be okay! He’s good, is my point. Read the rest of this entry »

The Astros undoubtedly view their 2023 season as a disappointment. They won 90 games, their lowest full-season total since 2016. They won the AL West, but only via tiebreaker, and then lost a tight ALCS to the division rival Rangers. Viewed through the lens of Houston’s recent domination of the American League, even a solid result isn’t enough.

Just one problem: There weren’t a lot of obvious places for the team to improve. Their lineup is full of the guys who have been mashing for them for years. José Abreu might theoretically be a weak link, but he looked better in the playoffs, and it’s not like there are a ton of exciting first basemen available in free agency anyway. Michael Brantley’s retirement lets Yordan Alvarez DH more frequently, and between Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick, the team has outfielders to fill any voids out there.

Still, the Astros wanted to get better, and hats off to them for that. Could they use some pitching? Sure, of course, but their top duo of Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez is already great, and I really like both Hunter Brown and J.P. France as options behind them. If there was a weakness, it was a thin bullpen, but that can be fixed. Like, say, for example:

BREAKING: Star closer Josh Hader and the Houston Astros are in agreement on a five-year, $95 million contract, a source tells ESPN.

The deal contains no deferrals. It is the largest present-day value contract for a relief pitcher in baseball history.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) January 19, 2024

Read the rest of this entry »

I’m a biased observer. I watch the offseason hoping something will happen, and not just because I’m rooting for one particular team to get better. My job is to write about baseball, and it’s a lot easier to write about things changing than things staying the same. “This just in: Yankees roster same as yesterday” is not a story that I’d be very excited to write, and it’s also probably not a story that many people would be excited to read. Change is imperative for content, especially in the offseason.

With that intro in mind, I have a bone to pick with the Baltimore Orioles – a bone that, coincidentally enough, Meg and Other Ben discussed on today’s Effectively Wild. The Orioles won the AL East last year and finished with 101 wins, second-most in baseball. They seemingly ran out of gas in the playoffs; they didn’t hit or pitch particularly well in their ALDS loss to the Rangers. They followed that up by doing – well, a whole lot of nothing. It’s not just that they’re making my job harder. They’re making their own job harder, and doing so while the clock is ticking on their young, cost-controlled team core.

The AL East is always a competitive division, and it’s gone exactly according to type so far this winter. The Yankees went out and got a star – Juan Soto, not Alex Verdugo, if you’re keeping score at home. The Rays traded six nickels, two dimes, and two pennies for a quarter, three dimes, and a nickel. The Blue Jays shored up their infield depth, though they still need to find a replacement for Matt Chapman. (The current leader in the clubhouse for that position? Matt Chapman.) The Red Sox – well, the Red Sox are certainly making moves, even if I can’t quite figure out the end goal. Read the rest of this entry »

This all started because I posted some GIFs of José Ramírez struggling. When I was looking into Sonny Gray’s marvelous sweeper, I captured him victimizing Ramírez twice in one game, once swinging and once looking. That led Marquee analyst and overall good baseball follow Lance Brozdowski to note that Ramírez is one of the worst hitters in baseball when it comes to dealing with opposite-handed sweepers, a pitch that most batters handle comfortably.

That sounded like an interesting topic for an article, so I started looking into it. Maybe it’ll still be an interesting topic for an article – “never say never on January 16” is a rule that I live by when it comes to finding things to write about. But my heart wasn’t in it. As I watched video and called up stats trying to build a case for the article, I kept smiling and laughing. I don’t want to bury José Ramírez, as it turns out; I want to praise him. So that’s what this is: some observations on one of the strangest and yet greatest players of our generation. Read the rest of this entry »

As you might have heard, the Yankees made a big splash early this offseason by trading for Juan Soto. It was one of the most impactful moves of the entire winter, and they struck quickly. Then, they went into hibernation. Their next major move didn’t come until yesterday, when they signed Marcus Stroman to a two-year deal worth $37 million, as Joel Sherman first reported.

As second acts go, it’s surely not what Yankees fans were hoping for. New York was linked to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and several other interesting pitchers were at least briefly connected to the team as well. But while Stroman is hardly the most exciting signing of the offseason, I think he’ll be an important cog in the team’s 2024 quest to get back to the playoffs, and that makes for a great fit in my opinion.

Let’s get something out of the way first: ZiPS doesn’t agree with me on this one. It thinks that Stroman is going to be a decidedly unexciting rotation option for the next two years:

In a word, yikes. That’s a desultory projection, the kind of starter that you’d be unhappy turning to in a playoff game. As you can see, the model would only have offered him about $25 million for the next two years rather than $37 million. But I’m not quite buying it, so let’s talk about why. Read the rest of this entry »

Pitchers mostly don’t throw sweepers to opposite-handed batters. Starters especially don’t throw sweepers to opposite-handed batters. To put a number on it, 227 starters threw 250 or more pitches to opposite-handed hitters in 2023. Only 18 of that group chose sweepers even 10% of the time. Everyone knows the math: It’s the kind of pitch that simply doesn’t work when opponents get a clean look at it.

Want further proof? When pitchers have deigned to throw this suboptimal pitch, they’ve gotten punished for it. Per Baseball Savant, starters threw 4,734 oppo sweepers and accumulated 43.6 runs of negative value relative to average for their troubles. In other words, it’s generally a poor option. It’s not quite “break glass in case of emergency,” but it’s not far off. Starters rely on changeups, splitters, vertical breaking balls, or cutters to get by; anything to avoid throwing sweepers.

Okay, now that I gave you that setup, here’s the deal: It’s not universally true. Two Cy Young contenders and a top prospect have bucked the trend, throwing sweepers with relative abandon and getting away with it. What gives? Let’s look at each in turn. Read the rest of this entry »

Every time I look up this offseason, I see a string of trades. The Braves seemingly made 65 roster moves to upgrade one position. The Mariners sent away a good chunk of their 2023 roster to save money and bulk up their outfield. The Rays are Rays’ing as hard as ever. Truly, it feels like a golden age for offseason deals.

All told, 130 players have changed teams via trade this offseason, per RosterResource. The quality is all over the map, from former aces like Chris Sale and Cy Young winners like Robbie Ray to minor leaguers you’ve never heard of. Juan Soto aside, it hasn’t been much of a season for blockbusters, at least in my estimation, but the sheer volume feels notable.

This being FanGraphs, though, I didn’t want to leave it at that. Sure, it feels like more teams than ever are engaging in red paperclip chains to make marginal upgrades, but the Rays also existed in prior offseasons, and Jerry Dipoto didn’t get his reputation for wheeling and dealing yesterday. Heck, A.J. Preller has been quiet this winter, and he often turns the hot stove incandescent in the winter. Maybe I’m just a victim of my own poor estimation. Read the rest of this entry »

For the last two offseasons, the Mets have operated with shock and awe, signing every free agent that wasn’t nailed down en route to building a team that could trade blows with the Braves atop the NL East. As you may have heard, that didn’t exactly pan out. So this offseason, they’re taking a new tack with a string of interesting signings that play below the top of the market. That trend continued over the weekend, when the Mets signed Sean Manaea to a two-year, $28 million deal, as Jon Heyman first reported.

As Kyle Kishimoto noted in our free agent preview, Manaea spent 2023 swinging wildly between roles for a Giants team that needed pitching help all over the place. He was a starter, long reliever, setup guy, whatever the situation demanded. He performed adequately in that tough job, but when he opted out of his contract after the season, it seemed likely that he’d look for a full-time starting spot. That’s where he’ll slot in on the Mets, who have spent the offseason remaking a rotation that had a lot of holes to fill after 2023’s trade spree. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ll level with you, readers: I’ve been taking it easy for the last few weeks, enjoying the end of the year and starting to get recharged for 2024. Not much baseball is going on, spring training is still quite a bit away, and we haven’t even had many exciting signings or trades to break the doldrums. It’s only natural, given that kind of backdrop, to let your mind wander.

One of the things I found myself wondering about was how Tyler O’Neill would like playing in Fenway Park. On the one hand, it seems like a match made in heaven; O’Neill is a righty hitter who puts the ball in the air, and Fenway is a perfect park for hitters who can pepper the monster out in left field. On the other hand, O’Neill’s power is absolutely gargantuan; if you hit the ball 400 feet, how far away the left field wall is doesn’t matter much. Heck, the wall might turn some smashed homers into doubles or even singles; it’s just so dang tall.

Statcast data bears that worry out. In 2023, O’Neill only hit nine homers. That’s bad enough, but here’s the kicker: per Baseball Savant, he would have only hit six homers if he played the entire season in Fenway. That’s actually tied for the stadium that would have allowed the fewest homers – Camden Yards and its new left-field cutout is the other laggard. Some of that is because O’Neill doesn’t hit dead pull shots all that often, and some of it is because no matter how crushed this baseball was, it didn’t get high enough off the ground. Read the rest of this entry »

The Rangers have a problem you don’t see every day. They have three pitchers, each likely out until halfway through this season, who all look like surefire starters when healthy. Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer need no introduction; deGrom is looking at an August or September return, while Scherzer will likely be back in July. Add Tyler Mahle to the list, too: the Rangers signed him to a two-year, $22 million deal this offseason, but he won’t be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery until around midyear.

Let’s get the easy caveat out of the way: it’s not clear how good any of these three will be in 2024. Scherzer and Mahle weren’t exactly setting the world on fire before they got injured, and deGrom is coming off a nerve wracking second TJ. But I think it’s reasonable to look at that trio and see at least two elite starters. A rotation with a healthy deGrom, Scherzer, and Mahle at the top would probably be one of the best in baseball. That doesn’t even account for Nathan Eovaldi and the rest of the team’s arms – Jon Gray looked pretty good in his own return from injury this past October.

That starting five sounds incredible to me. There’s room for one of those pitchers to get hurt – and with that collection of guys, one of them getting hurt seems likely – and still have a fearsome playoff rotation. That’s almost certainly the team’s plan – signing deGrom is one thing, but signing an already-hurt Mahle makes it pretty clear that they’re building in some injury tolerance and aiming for the postseason. I like the plan – look no further than the Braves and Dodgers to see how teams struggle to find top tier pitching to pair with excellent offenses. But it does raise a question: What do they do for the first three months of the season? Read the rest of this entry »