Hello everybody. Lighter queue today so far, guess that means it's the offseason. We'll see if it picks or if we have a shorter one today.
Metsox
How much has Zion Rose juiced his stock in Arizona?
Brendan Gawlowski
For us? Enough to go from where we had him in the draft to somewhere on our T100.
millvillemeltdown
which prospects have elicited the loudest uncontrolled reaction from you? shock, awe, dismay, hilarity?
Brendan Gawlowski
I'm relatively even keeled but I did just start laughing when Yanquiel Fernandez hit a fly ball 47 feet over the foul pole, an ump called it foul, and then he hit one even further out to right center on the next pitch.
Brendan Gawlowski
And also when Modesto broke an eighth inning, 0-0 deadlock when a wild pitch bounced off a catcher's shin guard and into the dugout and allowed the only run of the game to score.
Brendan Gawlowski
And when Juan Guerrero started playing hackey sack with his glove in left field as his pitcher came set.
David Wiers
I'm an 880ish rating. Is that Rookie Ball?
Brendan Gawlowski
That's probably 60th percentile or so on Chess.com? Sounds pretty good to me.
opifijikl
You mentioned somewhere (I think) that the Red Sox list was to be released earlier this offseason. Usually it’s a little later. Is this change due to feedback or something else? Either way, I’m looking forward to it
Brendan Gawlowski
Nope, just picked it out of a hat. Metaphorically, at least.
rfilla
Would you rather have a lineup of 9 Chandler Simpsons or 9 Yandys?
Brendan Gawlowski
Would be fascinating to see the 9 Simpsons play the 9 Yandys. Think I'm team Yandy but what a mess of a game that would be.
David Wiers
Is Angel Genao just blocked all across the infield to the point the Guards try him in LF, or is the bat just not playable there?
Brendan Gawlowski
I would view his situation as more of a temporary obstacle than something where you need to consider switching his position. Could be a trade chip, could be a Rocchio replacement, could be a second baseman and you move Bazzana.
Daron
Brewers LHP Wande Torres threw the 3rd most MiLB innings in their org this season. Do you think he profiles as a starter long term?
Brendan Gawlowski
Not out of the question but he's not very loose/fluid and he's already walking a fair few hitters. 80/20, 90/10 relief outcome.
Sir Nerdlington
What's one scout friendly change to the CBA that you'd like to see happen? (I know they're not at the table, but a change where one of the consequences is more human intelligence.)
Brendan Gawlowski
Pushing the draft back to June.
Brendan Gawlowski
To the user who keeps asking whether Players from Country Y are motivated and those from Country Z lazy: I'm not publishing that for what I assume are obvious reasons.
R.B. Urgess
Awesome stuff, struggled with command seems to be Jarlin Susana's AFL report on repeat… how does an organization forecast development with a prospect like that?
Brendan Gawlowski
They'll be kicking around various paths forward. Coaches and dev staff will have ideas on what they want him to do physically and how likely it is that change X can facilitate outcome Y (better command in this case).
Brendan Gawlowski
In Susana's particular case, that will likely involve a tailored plan for the winter (workout regimen, throwing program, etc.)
Brendan Gawlowski
And then an assessment of where he's at come spring training
war2d2
Would Bazzana’s bat play anywhere but 2B? Seems like a “good, not great” player if he makes it long term at 2B, but does he hit enough (or field enough) for anywhere else on the dirt?
Brendan Gawlowski
If he's a ~110 wRC+ bat over the long haul, that could play in a corner. I'm not saying "move Bazzana," more "I don't think you'll see Genao move to LF, here are a few ways he could get in the lineup without doing that."
Cromulent
Not a prospect but from an evaluation standpoint which role do you think Grant Taylor is best suited for: starter, closer or Andy Ashby?
Brendan Gawlowski
I think he can start, and given Chicago's rotation situation, it makes sense to give him a shot. The other two are nice fallback options.
BallparkFan
If anything, what under the radar things are taking place in player development systems?
Brendan Gawlowski
I think if you're here and subscribed to FG, you're probably pretty plugged in and aware of a lot of the things going on. Holistic athletic assessments, tailored and increasingly sophisticated strength and conditioning training, bat handle/barrel shape experimentation, pitch design labs…
Schu1719
You, understandably, wrote up Po-Chun Lin as a total wild card on the Mariners list last offseason. Any updated info on him now that he's pitched on the CPX?
Brendan Gawlowski
Please check back next week, I don't have a great answer for you this very second and complex stuff requires a little more legwork than I can do with a chat going on.
jose luis
What strengths can a farm director bring to a major league clubhouse?
Brendan Gawlowski
People management. Farm directors have to get so many different types of people and personalities (coaches, players, trainers; new school and old school; native English speakers and people still learning; front office folks; etc.) motivated and swimming in the same direction. It's a different challenge than managing a team of major leaguers and handling the media and whatnot, but if you're good at people management, I can buy that that skill could translate to a managerial setting.
Big Fan
When do you expect list season to kick off? I check twelve times a day for the updated Braves list : )
Brendan Gawlowski
Hopefully next week. But sounds like you could use a second sneak peak.
Luis Guanipa: Guanipa was a $2.5 million international signee out of Venezuela in the 2023 class. Despite the bonus, the 20-year-old is neither especially toolsy nor projectable, and the contours to his profile are similar to what they were a year ago. He makes a lot of contact (77% overall, 84% in zone last year) but it’s not especially authoritative. He tends to swing inside the ball and generates a lot of opposite field contact. Guanipa has average bat speed and is only able to consistently pull offspeed pitches that hang over the middle or inner part of the plate. His approach and swing decisions are generally solid but he started chasing more spin off the plate this past year and hardly walked at all after a late-season promotion to High-A.
Defensively, Guanipa’s tape is a mixed bag, with a blend of good reads off the bat and drifty routes that sometimes get him in trouble. He has the look of a guy who can play but not excel in center, and if anything he looks a half step slower than he did at last check in. There’s still enough hit skill and defensive versatility for him to grow into a fourth outfielder role, but some of the strongest parts of his game look a little dicier than they did in the low minors, and he’s correspondingly fallen a bit in this year’s update.
InsertWittyNameHere
What are your “if the lockout lasts too long here’s what I can write about” article ideas?
Brendan Gawlowski
Eric and I are not going to struggle for content.
Brendan Gawlowski
In an ideal world where all lists are published and there's no MLB, we've still got the minors, foreign leagues, colleges, etc. to follow. And I'd love to do more PD/scouting articles like the one I had last month about pro scouting.
Big Fan
Not a prospect question, but I keep reading about how the Brewers are good at bat design. Can you explain that to us, and particularly, why other teams can't copy it? I always think objective analysis is a lot easier to agree on than the more subjective analysis that so much of scouting is built on.
Brendan Gawlowski
I have no idea how good they are at it relative to anybody else but they're not alone in experimenting here. I can't find it but I thought I read something a couple years back about Julio trying various bat handles and actually not choosing the one that led to the very highest max EV because he didn't like the way it felt? Is that out there somewhere?
Bud Smith
What do you think is the biggest jump or fall a player has ever taken in an evaluation cycle? Have you ever bumped a 35+ to a 55+ in one season? Or the reverse?
Brendan Gawlowski
Better question for Eric, since he's been doing this forever… Plenty of really young guys will go from off the radar to the 40+ category in any given year. Breyner Figuereo with Texas just might end up in that territory.
Brendan Gawlowski
Conversely, there are a few guys who got money in the DSL who start as 40/40+ types that just aren't good. Kendry Martinez, Cristopher Polanco, etc.
munson burner
When it comes to the draft, are there prospects that you like who are likely to fail because of the team that drafted them? Can you name any situations in the past when you were upset for the player because of the team that drafted them?
Brendan Gawlowski
Of course. We try to comment when we think a player goes to a particularly good spot for their talents or vice versa.
Brendan Gawlowski
Too pithy to say "every time Colorado drafts a pitcher" but not by much.
Fun-Hating Dork
I mean, the Brewers were very involved in the most famous "bat design" incident (?) in recent baseball history: last year's "torpedo bat" opening weekend controversy.
Brendan Gawlowski
Came from the Yankees, but yes good example
Big Fan
Since you mentioned at the outset that the queue was a little lighter, can you take us behind the scenes of one of your chats? Are you cross referencing notes with stat pages with video, etc., or is it as simple as the questions come in, you pick one and type an answer and move on?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sure. First though, you guys have picked up the pace in a big way, tons of stuff in there now. But it's pretty simple, I see all the questions that have been asked, I try to select mostly ones I can answer relatively quickly but I also have my spreadsheets open and will watch a little video if there's a guy I'm familiar with but need a refresh or a new look. The Wande Torres question, for example, I pulled some video of him and had that in the b/g for a few minute while I took other q's. If there's something interesting that I'm unprepared for, I'll ask folks to come back the next week and try to do a little research for them between now and then.
Brendan Gawlowski
I've also heard some feedback that my answers can be terse; I don't mean them to be, I just wanna answer more rather than less.
willt
Are there any pitchers you or Eric have discussed hundo'ing based alone off pitch shapes or traits without the requisite sample size or game performance
Brendan Gawlowski
Discuss, maybe, but we generally want to see guys throw a little bit before we go nuts. Briggs McKenzie is a good example. We like him, I'd put a mid-rotation grade on him if I were scouting for a team… for the 100, let's see him hold his stuff over longer stretches first.
Anonymous Member #46
Are there any prospect types that are benefiting from the consolidation of the minor leagues?
Brendan Gawlowski
The handful of guys that are boat racing through are perhaps getting to the big leagues faster than they would have in the old days of ten years ago.
beanbong
Caminiti has seemed poised for a breakout for a couple years now, is he someone who gets a long runway to develop a viable offspeed? If the change doesn't come around, is there still enough stuff to 50 him?
Brendan Gawlowski
CH looks better year over year. He's one we have to talk through but I think he makes it.
fincampbell05
Any surprise 50s for the Red Sox list? How close are Godbout, Primera, Delzine?
Brendan Gawlowski
Delzine may just sneak on there. Primera PTC I think, Godbout I'm a little down on relative to last May.
tdmoc
>Bud Smith 11:40 AM What do you think is the biggest jump or fall a player has ever taken in an evaluation cycle? Have you ever bumped a 35+ to a 55+ in one season? Or the reverse?
iirc Vance Honeycutt went from 2025 45 FV to 2026 HM
(checks board) and now he's back to 40 FV!
Brendan Gawlowski
There are probably even more dramatic movers out there, too.
pronouncedsigh
How do you see the white sox handling Smith/Schultz/McDougal next year? Rotation? Bullpen? AAA?
Brendan Gawlowski
Just speculation, but Schultz gets every chance to start, Smith is the relief ace, McDougal less of a factor.
Brian Martin
Sebastian Walcott offense showing up in AFL stat line. If he makes it to the majors in 2027, what defensive position(s) would you expect to see? And what is a reasonable guess for how much shortstop he plays in his career ahead: more or less than 450 innings of major league shortstop?
Brendan Gawlowski
That's a fun over/under. I'll take the over, because that's not really all that many games. That said, if/when he makes it in 2027, I would guess it's in the outfield just b/c Seager is still around and productive.
Daron
Do you think there is any chance a version of the Rule 5 draft takes place at some point this offseason? If the likelihood is low will it materially impact team's 40-man roster decisions over the next two weeks?
Brendan Gawlowski
Chance, sure, doesn't seem likely. Team behavior would change if they knew one way or the other.
rfilla
How does the MiLB ball vs the MLB ball impact your evaluation of pitchers? Do all pitchers lose x% of their stuff, or does it only affect certain types of pitchers? On a related note, is Jacob Odle a Dude?
Brendan Gawlowski
Good question. Does not seem to effect all pitchers evenly, seems to effect the overhand/carrying fastball guys more than others but need to do more work to tell if that's anecdotal or a trend.
T-Swimm
Is Arias Gleyber Torres with better defense or is that just me?
Brendan Gawlowski
That comp doesn't light me up.
Brendan Gawlowski
But, if he posts a 113 wRC+ over his first nine years like Torres did, he's a star.
Chase Shiflet
Any chance Bodine or Gillen debut in 2027?
Brendan Gawlowski
Good chance, particularly for Bodine, who's already in Triple-A.
lmb2020
Will there be any fringy free agents that jump the gun and sign overseas just to avoid hits to development time?
Brendan Gawlowski
Speculation, obviously, but I'd buy that the uncertainty could push guys on the fence to take the leap. Maybe a few more Dan Straily types available for KBO clubs this year.
andecobi
What do you make of Bishop Letson after the way he finished his season?
I don't have any strong opinions off the cuff, it's the kind of thing that will have me looking for changes between September and July.
Brendan Gawlowski
But also, guys do this. I bought BIG on Case Williams throwing harder and missing a ton of bats down the stretch in 2022. Next spring, the velo uptick was gone and he was Case Williams again.
Graham Lewis
Listening to you on There R Giants right now. How many other orgs are lucky enough to have someone covering their farm system so comprehensively?
Brendan Gawlowski
Roger does a really good job, he's plugged in and is on top of all sorts of stuff. You and I hear a rustle in the wind, he hears that Samir Chires is throwing harder in a bullpen session.
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't want to miss anyone, so forgive errors of omission, but obviously Sox Prospects do a great job with Boston. Scott Lucas covers Texas and is a friend I've run into countless times on the backfields. Matt Winkelman on the Phillies. There are others, again, forgive my scrambled brain right now.
Brendan Gawlowski
MadFriars
WonderWall
How do you think about choice between having the multi-inning super reliever vs keep trying them at a starting (Aaron Ashby)? To phrase it differently, when do you just accept that you have a stud reliever who can cover multiple innings?
Brendan Gawlowski
If every start seems to start well and then turn into a quagmire around the third or fourth, you've got a good candidate.
Anonymous Member #46
What franchises would you anticipate most aggressively gambling that the Rule V draft doesn't take place?
Brendan Gawlowski
Franchises should not be gambling, it's against the rules.
Brendan Gawlowski
(More rooting than gambling, I'd imagine. Teams with deep systems, a crowded 40, and a ton of guys eligible for the R5. TB/MIL/SF come to mind)
Sammy Sooser
Looking at stuff, build, projection, delivery, athleticism, command, compete, holding velo, age x level, everything, am I crazy for thinking Zazueta is the best RHP prospect the Dodgers have had in like 20 years?
Brendan Gawlowski
He's up there. The tricky part is that we have the benefit of hindsight on a few good ones that haven't worked out. Like, Bobby Miller was a very good prospect, River Ryan we're obviously high on still, etc.
Sammy Sooser
re: Case Williams and velo jumps, Landon Knack hitting a hundo in spring training feels like a lifetime ago now
Brendan Gawlowski
Maybe the prospect with the widest range of radar readings I've encountered from the first to second time I saw him
Brendan Gawlowski
A good reminder that, while you can't/shouldn't ignore the gun, you shouldn't chase it either.
Fangraphs Man
Re: Grant Taylor- James has written a few times that Brian Bannister has, when talking about Taylor, brought up how his extreme extension is similar to Glasnow, and seemed to imply that it may lead to similar injury concerns with a starter's workload (especially on shoulder/lat which he's already had trouble with). Is this a concern you share, both for Taylor specifically and more generally as a potential issue for high-extension pitchers?
Fangraphs Man
Bannister on Taylor: Guys that pitch at max extension are kind of in that danger zone…
"There's just an added level of stress involved versus somebody who pitches more in the range of their physical height. If they have six-five extension and they're six-five, I think everything is operating in more of a middle, neutral range of the bell curve. It's just an observation and I do a ton of studies on my own, because a lot of this you have to operate in theory because there's not huge sample sizes. Like [Tyler] Glasnow [who has similarly high extension], when you look at the track record of innings pitched — and I have a lot of respect for him and his talent — there's a lot of seasons where he threw like, 60 innings. There's just not an extended track record of throwing 100-200 innings."
Brendan Gawlowski
Great question, I have no answer, but something interesting to think about. Might ask around this winter and see if there's an article there somewhere…
Brendan Gawlowski
Think I'm going to shut it down here. Thanks for coming as always and we'll do it again next week. In the meantime, be well.
Hello everybody. Good sports day today, Serie A is going already, some League Cup to follow. AFL, of course, and apparently another baseball game of modest import tonight. Should be fun. Let's get to it.
Darren Knowles
Thanks for the chat! Thoughts on Zion Rose? Eric mentioned wanting to see Zion Rose try some CF—any idea if the Royals plan to try that out?
Brendan Gawlowski
I liked Rose and agree that it'd be interesting to see him in CF. Not sure yet if the Royals are going to explore that, it's on my list to ask when I get to their system.
ADoctolero
What's your take on Buster Posey essentially hand-waving away any potential injury to a Giants pitcher in the name of improving their stuff? They definitely need to do that as an organization, but I'm not sure it's the best idea to say out loud to the media that they're going to push guys to a breaking point and oh well if they break.
Brendan Gawlowski
Do you have a link?
Nickname (required)
What do you make of Tai Peete's AFL? Is he in the Cardinals T10 ? Is he a future T100 guy?
Brendan Gawlowski
Obviously he's crushing it in Arizona. He's a guy I'm rooting for, but I don't think a whole lot has changed about him or the profile. He's a high risk player with a lot of swing and miss risk on spin and big upside if it all clicks. Top 10 in the system, everyday projection for me as a scout… Does that translate to the Top 100? Instinct is no, but we'll see how it shakes out.
BKhipsterball
Do you miss ash bats? The sound of contact just doesn't hit the same anymore
Brendan Gawlowski
I miss the aesthetic, too. If the league ever decides to get serious about making it easier to hit the ball but harder to hit it over the fence, ash bats could have a role to play.
dshtern1
Enjoyed Eric's writeup of Dax Kilby. Who do you like more between Dax and Yostin Pena in the Yankees system and why?
Brendan Gawlowski
Dax. In part because I think Dax is perfectly fine at short.
eccentricatlfan
Pretty sure I haven’t asked it yet (and apologies if I have), but for Deyvison De Los Santos, is there much to be read into his contact rate improvement at AAA, or is this just improvements from repeating the level and that there’s not really a meaningful change in his profile at the plate?
Brendan Gawlowski
It's up a little bit, but 73% for a bat-only guy in his sophomore year of AAA isn't great. Still projects as a bench bat/Asia masher.
mbushskbum
I am so enthused to see the Brewer – Rays WS (although as a Reds fan watching the Brewers success is a bit painful). I admire both organizations for combining Analytics, Scouting, and Player Development attached to a clear organizational philosophy. I think the Cardinals are well on their way to similar success. My Reds – well….. How to you evaluate combining those three arms and organizational philosophy. Is one more important than another in your view or is organizational philosophy that is most important supported by the three arms of success?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't really think about it in terms of one being more important than the others, you have to do all of it to be competitive, particularly if you can't spend your way out of lousy PD/scouting. The consequences for being complete dogshit analytically are enormous in a way that they don't seem to be for having the worst scouting/dev staffs, so in that sense… It's important not to be awful there. But at this point, I don't think the gap between the sixth and twenty-fourth best group analytically is all that big.
Eh, his comments seem fine. Everybody understands that this is where the game is at right now.
romananthonyglazer
I was surprised that Franklin Primera was not on the top 100 given his amazing performance so far on every level. What is there to be concerned about in Franklin's profile other than being in Single A
Brendan Gawlowski
His approach and long swing are going to be stress tested by better pitching/more velocity and he's not super projectable. I suspect he'll be a pick to click.
Nils
How do you know when a ranked prospect just has an off year vs a complete change in valuation? Thinking how Francisca went from a 45 here after the '24 season to not even a 35+ last year to now right back to 45 again.
Brendan Gawlowski
It can be tricky, and also hard to communicate what a down year means. Oftentimes when this happens, a player's ceiling doesn't change, but his odds of reaching it go down. That can shift a player down from an FV perspective.
Brendan Gawlowski
I would also say… Without placing a value judgment on it, because I think you can argue for either approach… I think Eric is more inclined to move a player's FV, and I'm more inclined to let things play out over a long period. These are tendencies rather than absolutes, but something to keep in mind as you read our lists this cycle.
romananthonyglazer
If Kristian Campbell was a prospect right now, what fv do you think he would have and what would change?
Brendan Gawlowski
40+ and glad I don't have to commit to that.
Rollie's Mustache
What would be the minor league level equivalency of AFL pitching quality? I see B-ref shows 5.85 ERA, 10K/9 and 6.5BB/9 as league averages. Is that like Cal League caliber? Or worse, Complex-type competition? Or is there no direct comparison here? Thx Brendan.
Brendan Gawlowski
It varies so much, the KBO isn't a bad comparison in that sense, from an overall talent perspective. The walk rates are very much of the complex, though.
BKhipsterball
Sell high on Gasser in dynasty after last night?
Brendan Gawlowski
If someone's willing to buy him as more than a no. 4, sure
millvillemeltdown
how controllable are diet/sleep/etc in the minor leagues? my understanding is the conditions are much worse which makes me suspect there are a lot of gains being left on the table
Brendan Gawlowski
Conditions are way better than they were 10 years ago. Some teams do a better job than others of procuring good housing/providing healthy meals, but even the worst are here are doing a lot more than was common in the early-mid 2010s.
Brendan Gawlowski
Of course, you're still dealing with teenagers and early 20 somethings and like everyone else at that age, a lot of them… will eat, drink, or sleep sub-optimally. That's just life.
jk0924
Why were you so low on Cam Cannarella and Brandon Compton? They both had a wrc+ of 149 and 156, and Cannarella is a consensus top 100 prospect on every other list in baseball. Are you guys going to change there grades for upcoming season?
Brendan Gawlowski
I think the reasons are clear from their writeups… It's fine to disagree. They both performed so well after publication that I definitely want to give them a fresh look, certainly possible that I was light, it happens. Cannarella's defense in particular is something that I agonized over at the time. The reputation didn't match the tape, but the tape is also not as good/reliable as the eye test in person. It's possible that if I saw him in the park, I would've felt differently.
WarrenJ
What's the next experimental rule in the AFL? Having the outfielders wear a ball and chain?
Brendan Gawlowski
I think the experimentation is broadly fine. I kind of liked watching outfielders need to go back on the ball. I'd tweak it so that they don't have to sit practically on the foul line, see what that looks like.
canderson20
Have any of the A's arms at the fall league caught your eye? I know Richardson has struck everyone out but I'm wondering if that's a blip or more to look forward to of him
Brendan Gawlowski
You named the one.
riibett
Hey Brendan! Eric said in his chat Briggs McKenzie looked like diet MadBum, what have your thoughts on him been?
Brendan Gawlowski
Should we just sneak peak a full blurb here?
Brendan Gawlowski
Why not
Brendan Gawlowski
McKenzie received Atlanta’s biggest bonus in the 2025 draft, signing for a cool $3 million. A year of pro instruction and weight training have worked wonders, as McKenzie has filled out considerably and added a few ticks of velocity. After operating either side of 90 mph this time last year, he now sits 92-94 while touching a little higher, and he could have more growth ahead of him.
McKenzie is an athletic and projectable lefty with a clean, if long, arm swing and a deceptive delivery. That motion helps his stuff and pitchability play up, and they’re already quite good to begin with. He can move his fastball up and to both sides of the plate, and run his long and tight sweeping breaking ball on and off the dish as well. His fading CH is inconsistent but flashed above average a few times during my look at him in the AFL.
The southpaw was only in Arizona because injuries took a big bite out of his 2026 campaign. He threw just 26 innings during the regular season, and at one point was on the 60 day IL with nerve irritation in his pitching elbow. While that sounds a little scary, he is back on the mound and looked no worse for wear in the Fall League. Projecting outward, McKenzie has mid-rotation traits. He has sufficient velocity and seems likely to develop the command. And while his arsenal is still a little lean, there’s plenty of time for him to add a second breaking ball or a two seamer. While we want to see more length and durability, and perhaps another tick on the gun, before we consider bumping him onto our Top 100 list, I anticipate he has another gear and he’ll be a Pick to Click for me this winter.
Jeremy Fox
There are orgs that are good at getting their young pitchers to add velocity, and orgs that are good at teaching their young pitchers new pitches. But are their orgs that are good at improving command?
Brendan Gawlowski
Boston was the first org that came to mind. Seattle's had some success here, too.
Darren Knowles
How does the Royals' Brooks Bryan look for Surprise? Thanks!
Brendan Gawlowski
Powerful. 35+/40 area as a thumper from the left side.
drummer66
What have you seen from Padres prospects in the Arizona Fall League? Specifically, Alex McCoy, Ty Harvey and Winyer Chourio. Francis Pena, too.
Brendan Gawlowski
McCoy and Harvey were the most interesting of the group. McCoy's power might just be an 80, that gives him a path to value even if he's pretty flawed everywhere else. Harvey's a good athlete behind the plate, like the bat speed. Suspect he'll stay in the Top 10 of that system even after a rough year in the Cal League. Says something about both him and SD's system.
millvillemeltdown
do you ever think about how traits/tools fit into a team context while scouting? eg. the arraez fit with the phillies, or like how a prospect might add defensive value to a poor defensive major league team
Brendan Gawlowski
All the time, usually more from a developmental context than immediate team need.
drplantwrench
considering his hot run, whats preventing arjun nimmala from taking the next step up the T100 rankings and/or FV rating?
Brendan Gawlowski
That he might not be a shortstop.
dashrockwell
Assuming the Red Sox get Franklin Arias in the lineup relatively near the beginning of 2027 (if there's a 2027), what's a reasonable expectation for him next year? Does his peak look something like Michael Young's good years with the Rangers? His EV numbers seem more "average to plus" than "25+ homers on the reg"
Brendan Gawlowski
Arias is a better defender. The dream here is Lindor Lite.
Phil
Re: changes to FV, how much of that difference with Eric (I understand it's a friendly disagreement) is scouting philosophy vs journalistic philosophy? Seems like player development is hard to report, because you can't just keep running articles that say, "still waiting to see how this plays out long-term." The internet wants content!
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't even know if it's a disagreement, more of an initial instinct. I don't know if there's a "right" answer to how sensitive FV should be to performance, it's so context specific.
Brendan Gawlowski
And you can find examples where both approaches were justified. Like, Hartman was sending signals right away this spring that he was a different guy than he was in '25. Moving quickly was the right answer there. Meanwhile, Ethan Salas had a rough couple years but the tools never really changed…
drplantwrench
follow up q, is it arjun's defense then? is it range/technique/arm?
Brendan Gawlowski
Range just okay, he's not that quick, footwork doesn't look great, can scatter his throws when he's not lined up well. Love the hands, growing chance it all plays better at third.
war2d2
Brendan! Piggybacking on the Posey question (I’ve not seen those quotes either): at what point do you think it becomes a question of morality about pitcher injuries? I’m speaking as a father of a 12yo who A) plays baseball, B) has 99th percentile velo for his age, and C) can’t hit a lick. As a dad I’d really prefer he was a position player, but his path forward (at least to HS /JuCo, or university if he makes it that far) is almost certainly tied to his arm. I realize teams aren’t coercing players against their will to go to Driveline and gain velo only to blow out, but at some point does a front office become (if not legally at least morally) culpable when they tell a kid “you’d be a real prospect if you just threw a little harder”?
Brendan Gawlowski
Complicated question, no easy answers, but very different context in the professional game versus teenage ball. At your son's age, the focus should be on having fun. Run screaming from anyone who wants to max out a 13 year old's stuff plus, or who wants to throw him all the time.
Brendan Gawlowski
For the professionals, it's a different equation. There are a lot of risks inherent to being a professional athlete, and for a pitcher, subjecting your arm to a greater risk of injury in the search of better stuff is part of the equation. That said, I do think teams should feel some moral obligation to lower their injury rates, and I think players should be educated about which teams tend to get their guys hurt, and which do a better job keeping them healthy.
Brendan Gawlowski
There's also a competitive angle here, too. At a certain point, you have enough injuries that you're doing something wrong. Like, Miami's injury rate is counter productive.
Matthew Rosenbaum
How has Charles Davalan looked at second in the AFL?
Misio improving his walk rate from 13.4% to 14.4% to 11.8% to 6.6% since 2023 is an XX% outcome ??
Brendan Gawlowski
97.54th
war2d2
I pulled him from travel ball and only have him in Little League (juniors) because I didn’t like the vibes I was getting. Maybe I’m costing him long term but like you said, I want him to have a great time and make a lot of happy memories.
Brendan Gawlowski
Be wary of teams that play in a lot of tournaments. They're fun, but unless the team is bringing a ton of pitching and has a responsible coach, the good ones can get run into the ground.
eccentricatlfan
One other question: quite a bit has been made about the Rays as of late and how they’ve utilized their sinkers, especially cases where pitchers are able to tunnel them effectively with their four-seamers. If this becomes part of the next big trend where teams try to develop this with their pitchers, which orgs particularly stand out as the best suited towards using this strategy?
Brendan Gawlowski
The usual suspects.
ADoctolero
I guess as optics go, I would have liked to see something like, "we're going to do everything we can to keep our guys healthy through this process," rather than, "no one is gonna get in trouble for pushing a guy so hard he breaks."
Brendan Gawlowski
Personally, I thought Posey hit his marks there. I also don't care that much about optics. What people do is more important than what they say, which is in turn more important than how the media/social media perceives what they say.
Domingo Ayala
How do ash bats make it easier to hit the ball?
Brendan Gawlowski
They don't (at least as far as I'm aware, I suspect we'll learn more about bats and bat technology in the future) but my understanding is that they don't hit the ball as hard so, in a world where it's easier to hit but you don't want the homer rate to explode, their use could theoretically help maintain balance. Speculation on speculation here.
Brian Martin
Dax Kilby follow up—what should the defense development Plan A be? Play him at SS as long as he can kinda handle it? Or switch to an easier position now to speed his path to the majors?
Brendan Gawlowski
I would just play him at SS. I thought he looked like a 50/55 type there and spoke to two scouts who felt similarly. I've also heard that at least one team has him graded that way based strictly on their defensive metrics, for what that's worth.
Brendan Gawlowski
Now, maybe he grows off of it, or maybe he'd be so good in center that you could justify moving him there based on that. But just from what I've seen, I wouldn't be in any hurry to move him.
BKhipsterball
You had Angel de los Santos as a long term pick to click. How we feeling about him now?
Brendan Gawlowski
Similarly! Better than my other two year dart throw guess.
Phil
How repeatable is the Bauersaissance, really? Even if you accept that MIL is better at post-prospect development, that doesn't mean they can Bauersify any equivalent hitter who's bouncing around the league. How do they know who they cam help? Is it initially luck–they just have to get a guy and see? Can they predict it? Or is it totally luck and I'm giving them too much credit even for Bauers himself?
Brendan Gawlowski
Can they reliably turn a 40 into a 60? Probably not. Do I think they can turn 35+/40 types into 45's more often than most other teams? Yes.
fishnchips
How did Salas look to your eyes in his callup time in September/playoffs? Any shading to his grades based on his MLB looks?
Brendan Gawlowski
He looked great. He's (obviously) much closer to actualizing the future grades than he was a year ago and the 55 future power looks low since he's 20 years old and basically already there.
Brendan Gawlowski
He's a great prospect.
Brendan Gawlowski
I saw Eric said he'd put him in the top 5 in his last chat and, yeah, that seems about right.
Big Fan
So….can you confirm that you're working on the Atlanta list?!?!
Brendan Gawlowski
I'm 98% done with it.
benae
Favorite non top 100 LHP in the milb as of today and why?
Brendan Gawlowski
Two for the price of one. Justin Lamkin's a fun watch as a pitchability guy who can kind of toy with hitters. I'm very interested in monitoring Kash Mayfield's development with Detroit.
Fangraphs Man
Eric seems to slightly revised his confidence in Bonemer's bat upwards- do you agree with this? Is there a path to him being an all star level LF even if he's a LF?
Brendan Gawlowski
He's scary, I think toward the bottom of the Top 100 is the right place to slot in the guy with a scary swing and limited defensive value… but also a lot of power and pretty good barrel feel.
benae
Any prospects that you love but you have worries that they are majorly blocked by the current big league club around their debut?
Brendan Gawlowski
No, talent pushes its way through eventually. The closest thing to this was River Ryan w/LAD.
Big Fan
You mentioned a few weeks ago that you were working on lists. Can you share what we should expect over the next month or two?
Brendan Gawlowski
99.87% done with Toronto, close to that with Atlanta, ~90% done with Boston. After that I might start on Texas… From there, no plans. I'll try to keep folks informed on a rolling basis where possible. The two things that kind of push a system up or down are the number of potential T100 guys (higher priority to do quickly) and the teams who have a lot of talent coming up from the DSL (these get pushed back on the off chance we can get a meaningful look in the spring).
Brendan Gawlowski
Eric has done that for a few years now and it makes a ton of sense.
benae
Does Seth Hernandez have major reliever risk long term or are you a believer in his ability to be a starter 5+ years from now?
Brendan Gawlowski
Every pitcher has some reliever risk, but Hernandez's is about as low as can be for a teenage flamethrower. He's really good.
Salty
non-prospect related, but what do you make of Victor Mesa's season? Just a late-bloomer or did he really benefit from change of scenery/team better at player development?
Brendan Gawlowski
Little of column A, little of column B. He looks like a good player going forward. Curious to see if he gets much ROY consideration.
benae
Do you think that Dzierwa has ace potential? If not, who in the MILB do you think currently has that no. 1 ceiling?
Brendan Gawlowski
Good pitching prospect, but ace is a little hot there. Seth Hernandez and Ryan Sloan might be the only two I'd project as aces right now.
RAH
Can David Sandlin establish himself in the CWS rotation next year?
Brendan Gawlowski
Yes.
jgcrocke
I’ve seen some notes from Arizona recently about the outfield positioning rules they’re testing, which seem to effectively boost doubles and (especially) triples. Any thoughts on types of prospects who would look better/worse to you under those rules, if adopted at MLB? Just a boost to fast corner outfielders or would it impact hitting grades as well?
Brendan Gawlowski
Speed in the outfield becomes imperative. Fourth outfielders with wheels and contact skill but not a ton of pop would get a lot more valuable.
Brendan Gawlowski
As would groundball pitchers, I suspect.
clydethedog
Charlie Condon and Josue De Paula have to get an early look in 27 correct?
Brendan Gawlowski
De Paula for all practical purposes has arrived. I don't know exactly how the Dodgers sort out the roster, and I can't guarantee that the answer is JDP is in the Opening Day lineup and stays there for 155 games, but he'll play a ton. Condon I would think is about ready to go but, as I said last week, Colorado's approach with him raises questions that require further investigation.
Phillip Denny
In retrospect, why didn't Ashby get developed as a starter? Was it health, command, a little of both?
Brendan Gawlowski
He… did? He even made 19 big league starts in '22.
Phillip Denny
If you were the Brewers and decided not to bring Bauers back, what would your confidence level be of 1B shaking out to be some combination of Vaughn/Fischer/Burke?
Brendan Gawlowski
Vaughn definitely part of the solution. Burke/Fischer have a shot to grow into a role there in 2027 but I are probably not part of the Opening Day plan. You're probably either committing to playing Vaughn there every day or looking for a Nate Lowe type to platoon.
hofstrascott20
Have you seen Ramcell Medina of the Royals at all recently. He seemed like a guy you were intrigued on a year or two ago, but his power hasn't really shown up at all in games like it was projected it might. Thanks a lot.
Brendan Gawlowski
Stock down, didn't hit much on the complex. Raw power was 30 grade.
Broken Bat
Curious about high rated prospects making it into Show in last 2-3 years but still young enough to bloom maybe this year; Based upon your evaluations, give us 2-3 position player guys you still think just need more time. Love the chats.
Brendan Gawlowski
Cam Smith might have another gear. Amador showed signs of life at the end of the year. For a deep shot, I'd like to see Max Muncy get a healthy year…
clydethedog
when it comes to fast risers who end up getting shots in the MLB (Leo Bernal this year, Michael Harris in the past), can we chalk this up to the club identifies something they like more than the public?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sometimes yeah. Sometimes its just org philosophy to push quickly. I wouldn't throw Bernal into that category though, he's moved at about a level per year.
daml91
Crazy to think the presumptive WS champions have the #1 prospect in the game knocking on the door. What is the plan with Made in 2027 if you're the Brewers? Start at AAA? What if he signs a contract extension? Does he supplant Pratt who has been leaky in the postseason at SS?
Brendan Gawlowski
What's crazy is that this has happened a few times in recent memory. Langford was ranked second and was the Opening Day starter for the defending champs, and then Roki was the top guy on the 100 prior to the 2025 season.
Brendan Gawlowski
As for the plan on Made, no need to rush, AAA would be just fine out of the gate.
scotth855
Looking back at the Cubs farm post their 2020-2023 rebuild, they had a top 5 (maybe even #1 farm system) that produced basically PCA, Busch, and nobody else. How much of that was an entire industry miss, overvaluation of a big market team's prospects, or just regular prospect hit/miss cycle?
As an evaluator, what have you been able to take from the sustained player acquisition and development successes of the Rays and Brewers?
Brendan Gawlowski
Two of the prime examples of how holistic player evaluation is the right path forward. Both with great front offices, scouting staffs, and dev operations. Hand in glove operations.
Charles Bengal Tiger
I need a long-term young dynasty catcher. Who's most likely to have a solid MLB career out of Leo Bernal, Vahn Lackey, or Nathan Flewelling?
Brendan Gawlowski
Lackey but I like all three.
Charles Bengal Tiger
How has Charles Davalan looked at 2B?
Brendan Gawlowski
Promising but needs reps. Athleticism and range to do it…
Jeremy Bowers
Hi Brendan! Thanks for doing these. Every year, it's interesting to see evals and rankings update over the offseason even though there doesn't appear to be a lot of new information added. What's happening there? How do you approach an offseason where you have little new additional info.
Brendan Gawlowski
I'm not sure I understand your question. We've got a year of new info to work with. Sometimes that changes the forecast, often it doesn't, but either way it's worth reviewing the year and checking in.
jdbolick
Has your opinion of Kade Anderson changed after seeing his four seam with the MLB ball?
Brendan Gawlowski
I wish we'd been a little cooler on him on the midseason update. His FB grade will go down.
Jeremy Bowers
Re: evals over the offseason — apologies, mostly thinking about how you might approach looking at a player or an org given just new perspective but not necessarily any new looks.
Brendan Gawlowski
Lot of video/data analysis. Even a guy who looks fairly similar might have added a pitch, and it's good to go in and take a glance at how that looks on video.
bdolven
What do you think Jared Grimdlinger’s path looks like? Definitely not going to pitch? How quickly do you figure he’ll be expected to move?
Brendan Gawlowski
LAA sources say they're going to try the two-way path. Harder to go quickly that way but fun/exciting nonetheless.
Domingo Ayala
I went through old scouting reports on other sites and saw Profar had present 70 grade SS defense. Was that a misread or did Profar change over time?
Brendan Gawlowski
There were some injuries in there but the 70 might've been a little hot. I was a neophyte back then though.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Who will be the next good homegrown starting pitcher for the Dodgers?
Brendan Gawlowski
Zazueta is the leader in the clubhouse.
Domingo Ayala
Years ago when Moniak was selected first overall, I read a report that when he showed up to camp in the spring he already looked less athletic. Do you recall your first look at him that Spring?
Brendan Gawlowski
Didn't have one, but given that he's still playing a little center in big league games ten years after he was drafted, don't think athleticism was necessarily the prroblem there.
mbushskbum
I attended the AFL triple header in Goodyear Saturday and then Glendale at Salt River yesterday. Dax Kilby looked awesome yesterday. His speed was impressive as was how hard he hit his triple and ground rule double. How do you measure speed for your evals? I notice that FGs has Kilby as a 55 spd while MLB and BA have him at a 60. Curious what you look at to grade it.
Brendan Gawlowski
Home to first time is the anchor and I might throttle up or down a half grade depending on how playable it seems to be. Good example of a tool that's easier to see in all its glory when you're in the park. You get a better look at first step on defense or on the bases, and some video feeds make it tricky to get an accurate run time, too.
Brendan Gawlowski
Amusingly, I know of a scout who once got into a ton of trouble for putting 60 run times on 30 runners because he was doing it on video and didn't know that all the camera angles weren't synced up.
kingkash7788
How much has Nimmala risen in the last week and a bit?
Brendan Gawlowski
Holding steady.
Brendan Gawlowski
Maybe a tick down, I'm not ready to move him off of SS yet but I can see it going that way a little more every time I watch him.
mbushskbum
Have you seen Nathan Flewelling? How would you rate his catcher D in particular his framing. How to do you grade framing when watching players?
Brendan Gawlowski
Framing, for me, is easier on video; there's just so much else going on in the park, I have a hard time getting a good feel for it unless I'm really paying attention to just that at the expense of other stuff. But I'm looking for mobility, low stance, strong wrist, limited head movement. If most of the physical stuff looks good but the technique isn't there yet, that's fine, we can project there.
Brendan Gawlowski
Flewelling himself does a lot of that well, he's low to the ground and can funnel balls toward the plate from all directions.
George
Hey Brendan! In your Pitcher AFL notes you wrote that Susana had split his breaking ball into two shapes in your October 10th look. The shapes were pretty blended in his AAA looks. Did you hear anything about how that transpired in the AFL and whether it was an explicitly intentional change?
Brendan Gawlowski
There was enough velo separation between his slowest and fastest ones that I figured it was two pitches; he may have just been adding/subtracting. Regardless, I like that he's able to mix it up a little bit.
war2d2
Brendan! Right now is generally when my friends and I start our generalized plans for our annual spring training trip. What’s your general feeling for if there will be any games in late-February next year? Minor leaguers will still be under contract, right? If that doesn’t happen we’re also considering Cape Cod, or putting it off until October for the AFL. What’s your general feel for which one would be more enjoyable for a bunch of depressed middle-aged nerds?
Brendan Gawlowski
Really tough year to make plans, unfortunately. My crystal ball isn't any better than anybody else's. Maybe it's the hopeless optimist in me, but if I had to guess, I suspect we're looking at a similar deal to what we had in 2022, maybe with a few missed games, maybe not.
Brendan Gawlowski
As for your situation specifically, if you have the flexibility to make plans just a few weeks in advance, you might actually get a pretty good deal on hotels and attendance at big league games will be pretty light, which is a positive in my book.
Brendan Gawlowski
Alternatively, if you're cool with just going to the backfields, plan away.
Wright Abbot
Most of the Orioles players in the Fall League seem to be doing well. Anything caught your attention in particular?
Brendan Gawlowski
Pleasantly surprised by Honeycutt, I guess. More in a 40-ish sort of way than huge impact, but he didn't look overmatched at the plate.
Petey Bienel
Did Cayden Wallace show enough this season to restore the 40 status he had when he was in the KC system?
Brendan Gawlowski
That feels about right off the cuff, would need to dive into the defense to say for sure. He's reached the AA power grade he's had here for a while. Approach is not good though.
Charles Bengal Tiger
What position will Ace Reese eventually play?
Brendan Gawlowski
1B/LF.
Alex Remington
I saw the Mets just decided to hire more scouts. This is *maybe* more of a rant than a question, but why did so many teams decide to cut their scouting staffs in recent years, and is there any chance that this particular World Series matchup induces more teams to think about beefing back up in their scouting department?
Brendan Gawlowski
A combination of things. Some people think that the data is robust enough that you don't need scouts. Some leaders don't like that scouts come from a different perspective and have a different view on players. Some scouts don't do themselves any favors.
StuShea
If you're the White Sox, do you hold Colson Montgomery for another year? Can he improve?
Brendan Gawlowski
Yes, numbers tanked right when he got hurt. I buy that he was playing through something in the second half .
mbushskbum
I have never visited the backfields, can you give a brief or not suggestion of how to do that?
Brendan Gawlowski
Each splits its minor leaguers into four or five teams. Those teams play games on the backfields which are usually but not always (Athletics, Giants, Reds/Guardos kind of) very close to the stadium. There are usually but not always two games going on simultaneously (A/A+ teams or AA/AAA teams). There are a few fans but not many, more scouts/family/autograph hounds than anything else. It's a good time.
Ceiling of a no. 3, he'll likely be a 45 this winter, maybe 45+. Could reach the desert next year, take your pick on a 27 or 28 ETA.
Brendan Gawlowski
I should admit, of all the things I grade/project here, the ETA is the thing I spend the least time on. It's hard enough to project on the tools, and the timeline is often not dictated by talent and performance alone anyway.
apeloton
If you’re the Sox, do you feel like you have a Story/Arias situation? If so, what do you do about it this winter?
Brendan Gawlowski
Good problem to have. Cynically, it gives you an excuse to delay the clock on Arias. In the unlikely event that Story is both good and healthy at short, great, if not you have the guy you really want there anyway just about ready to go.
Honkus Wagner
has Walcott’s gotten enough work at SS in the AFL to quell any concerns about his defense there? will be interesting to see how Texas manages Jung and Seager going into next year
Brendan Gawlowski
I'd shift the framing. It's less a concern to quell than a case where Walcott is going to have to continually prove that he can play short throughout his career.
Pirates Hurdles
Hi Brendan, do you have any intel on why Derek Curiel didnt see any MiLB time this year? Coming from LSU I would have thought straight to A or A+ was in the plan. I guess the approach worked well enough with Murf Gray, but seems odd to me.
Brendan Gawlowski
Fairly typical for first round picks to not go out to A ball at the end of the year. Some do, some don't, wouldn't read too much into it.
swood
With the benefit of hindsight, who were some guys you were way too high on this year, and why were you too high?
Brendan Gawlowski
There are obviously a lot of guys who didn't reach their projection, but there were always reasons for putting them where I/we did. I think the ones that bug me the most are the ones where data led me astray. Putting too much weight on metal bat exit velos, over-grading a fastball due to shape generated with a minor league ball, things like that.
Brendan Gawlowski
If the question is more like "why were you too high on Dylan Beavers?" I think you can generally follow the trail of thought from the writeup.
maximus74
do you expect an over correction to the rabbit ball used in the minors from this year?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't really know what to expect. My guess is it will shift back toward where it was before but who knows. The league isn't great at making consistent baseballs.
Anonymous Member #46
Is there anything worth reading into from the 2026 draft class at all yet?
Brendan Gawlowski
Bits and pieces. Couple scouts told me they think Ace Reece looked more hitterish than they expected, which is interesting. But more things like that than a "it really looks like Team X screwed that one up" so far.
InsertWittyNameHere
Klaw said Aidan Miller looked good during the AFL, did you get a look at him too?
Brendan Gawlowski
I didn't, sorry, kept missing him. Pretty sure Eric has got him a couple times though, better question for him.
ryancorrigan10
If you had the 1.01 draft pick in a dynasty league this winter, who would you take with that pick?
Brendan Gawlowski
Not a fantasy guy but PCA/Witt/Elly/Caminero seem most appealing depending on your risk tolerance and positional scarcity needs.
dan norman lear
Who is the starting OF on Opening Day 2027, whenever that may be, for the Colorado Rockies?
Brendan Gawlowski
Carrigg.
beanbong
with how relievers are used in the postseason now (essentially every game for some), does that affect FV for pitchers projected to be late-inning relievers? Cade Smith ran out of gas but threw more innings than all the Cleveland staff except for Messick/Williams
Brendan Gawlowski
It's an interesting question. All projections are tricky, relievers moreso than just about anyone else. The very best relief prospects don't reliably turn into dominant closers. And on the other side of the coin, how could you project Cade Smith to halve his walk rate the second he got to the big leagues?
Brendan Gawlowski
Practically speaking, I'm finding that I'm projecting more and more guys who are starting in the minors into relief roles, and leaving their FV's higher than I perhaps would have a few years ago.
higginsford
Are you glued to Peacock for this absurd day game tipoff for the NBA's opening day?
Brendan Gawlowski
No. Bad opinion incoming but… I don't think basketball works.
padsfan96
Anyone from the back end of the top 100 list poised to take a leap on next year's list based on their 2nd half?
Brendan Gawlowski
I imagine 5-10 will. Kilby for sure. Luis Hernandez wouldn't surprise me. Maybe a guy like Michael Arroyo, now that he's played a little bit in the big leagues, and played well. I'll be pushing to knock him ahead of Celesten at the very least.
beanbong
Piggybacking on the reliever question, the recent Jaffe article highlights Ashby and points out that he could've won NLCS MVP. If you're starting a 7 game playoff series, would you rather have the lights-out fireman reliever or the 4.00 FIP #3 starter? I'd want the reliever, as I'm sure most would, but on opening day, would the answer be the same? Does (or should) that play a role in projecting players, or are we now introducing another tricky variable into an already tricky art?
Brendan Gawlowski
To complicate things further: I'm not so sure that the no. 3 starter couldn't just be the fireman reliever.
jaysfan39
Any thoughts on Jake Cook's first season in pro ball,?
Brendan Gawlowski
It was okay. Speed played a little better on the bases than it did in college, which is a good sign. Arrow flat or slightly down.
JMKUHNER
RE: Rockies OF… that's a LOT of ground for Cole Carigg to cover by himself…
Brendan Gawlowski
ah jeez, I read that as CF. I assume they'll run it back with McCarthy and Moniak in the corners… Boring answer, I know.
triplesandtea
Who in your mind was a "can't miss" prospect when you wrote them up (for either us or PIT) who ended up missing? Why did they miss? If for injury, can you also think of an example that wasn't an injury miss?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't think anybody is "can't" miss but I had a big grade on Tovar, and if you'd have told me at the end of his 3.5 win 2024 season that, two years later, his walk/strikeout numbers will go in the right direction AND he'd have a 55 wRC+ I'd have been floored.
Brendan Gawlowski
Answer there is that the approach got exploited in a big, big way.
apeloton
What’s the updated super bull case for kilby? Well rounded regular kinda guy, or might there be another gear even on top of that?
Brendan Gawlowski
The super bullish case is that he can hit .300 with a little power and play above average defense at short.
Brendan Gawlowski
It's quite a ceiling.
Domingo Ayala
Wait, why doesn't basketball work? I'm not a fan either but can you explain?
Brendan Gawlowski
Block/charge/no call is just a vibe.
John Church
Since higher draft picks produce the most value on average, do amateur scouting departments focus most of their resources on the top two rounds (say, top 75) or so some teams try to focus on building greater org depth and look to hit on later rd picks as well?
Brendan Gawlowski
Kind of both. The big picks get a lot of attention. Multiple decision makers will go personally see and talk to the seven-figure guys. But there are still plenty of people around pouring their heart and soul into looking for diamonds in the rough.
JMKUHNER
Does that make Veen or Condon attractive trade pieces? Challenge trade to a pitching rich team possibly (do pitching rich teams even exist given the number of pitchers used by teams per year these days…)
Brendan Gawlowski
It's worth giving Veen another look but the swing and miss is really scary there. The way the Rockies have developed Condon is different enough from my eval of him that I feel the need to dig deeper to figure out what the heck is going on.
maximus74
had zero idea that the NBA was trying out day games for opening "night" guess I'm not playing fantasy basketball this year
Brendan Gawlowski
I didn't either From a distance, the league seems like it's in kind of a weird place. I think it's true in all sports but maybe in basketball especially, a lot of the energy seems to come from stuff not happening on the court.
maximus74
Do you think draft pick trading will make it into this CBA?
Brendan Gawlowski
I'd be pleasantly surprised.
adamakbani99
Updated views on Tai Peete? Don't want to overreact to a small sample but between AA/AFL he's been great against better competition and has shown better swing decisions recently. Is a 45 FV fair now?
Brendan Gawlowski
I would not go crazy on AFL production. I'm encouraged that he's continuing to make things work as he's facing better pitching but my feelings on him haven't changed much. He's the kind of player I'd project as a regular as a scout, but one that teams have to value lower than that because he's so risk/reward.
Anonymous Member #46
If pick trading made its way into the CBA, what teams do you think would be most poised to take advantage? Who would be most aggressive in acquiring picks, and who would be aggressive in trading them away?
Brendan Gawlowski
The Rays would find a way to have 40 picks in the first ten rounds.
JMKUHNER
Ah, the vibe, just like a check swing (nothing defines "offering at the pitch" other than the umpires vibes)
Brendan Gawlowski
There's some of this in all sports. Pass interference, penalties in soccer, the strike zone at times in baseball history, etc. "Can I legally go to the hoop?" seems more fundamentally problematic to me but… Like I said, it's a bad opinion. We all have 'em.
ToastMalone
I saw Teruaki Sato was posted., but I didn’t see him on The Board. Any guess where he’ll slot in?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sneak peak at Ben's list… He's in 50 FV territory there.
dan norman lear
Rank the Ethans"
Brendan Gawlowski
Salas, Holliday, Pecko, Conrad, Roberts… I'm running out of Ethans, please send help.
triplesandtea
Maybe a better question for an article but what's something you think rookie scouts often overstate/understate relative to veteran scouts? What about something veterans more often miss than rookies?
Brendan Gawlowski
You get better at projecting the longer you do it. You start to get a feel for how certain bodies and traits will age. For veterans, as the game changes, there's a risk that you either don't adapt or just get really frustrated with how modern baseball is played, and that can seep into the evaluations a little bit.
Honkus Wagner
Caceras, A Gomez, Frias, Renteria…you get one to start a team with, who are you taking?
Brendan Gawlowski
Leaning Gomez, caveat that I need to give Renteria a longer look. Caceres feels a little out of place here.
dan norman lear
Sometimes we just have prospects, whom, no matter what we read about them, are skeptical they are ever going to be more than prospects. My recent one has been Tink Hence. Currently, it is Jamie Arnold. Do you have a prospect you are just skeptical of, regardless of hopeful promise.
Brendan Gawlowski
It's interesting you mentioned Hence, I had a very similar feeling to what you were describing. As a general matter, I tend to be skeptical of the corner guys with light power but good minor league swing data.
Brendan Gawlowski
Think I'll shut it down here today. Thanks as always for the questions, we'll do it again next week.
Have you seen Jhonny Level at all this year? I think he's become underrated among the glut of young SFG MiF. Was skeptical on him at SS but looked great this year and just hits everything
Brendan Gawlowski
Several times. He doesn't have the same defensive ability or upside as the younger guys, and at some point he needs to get a little more selective. But it'd be wild if there was prospect fatigue settling in here already, he's a good hitter with sneaky pop. Easy T100 guy.
leoneforthird
With the move into Cardinals org Tai Peetehas seemed to take a big step forward. What did he do differently this year and is he a top 100 candidate
Brendan Gawlowski
Repeating High-A was a good idea. There's still a lot of swing and miss, probably too much for realistic T100 consideration, but it's really encouraging that it didn't skyrocket after he was promoted to AA. And of course, there are more than 100 or 110 interesting prospects with everyday upside!
ADoctolero
How would you rank Flora, Bresnahan, Keyner, Marquez and Cayama within the Giants system?
Brendan Gawlowskiedited
Flora, Marquez, Keyner, Bresnahan, Cayama.
apeloton
Last week you wrote that Dax kilby looks like one of the best guys in the league – with guys like Walcott here, that was a bit of a wow moment for me. Reading too much into it, or has the last week been that for you too with kilby?
Brendan Gawlowski
He doesn't have the same kind of freaky, elite upside that Walcott does but he looks like a high-probability regular. Solid defender at short, really good feel to hit.
nuxie
Which would be a greater concern for a hitter-chase rate,in zone contact or contact vs 95mph+?
Brendan Gawlowski
Depends; who do you have in mind?
kipsooth
If you're in AZ or have heard from others, how's Bonemer looking in the OF?
Brendan Gawlowskiedited
Raw. Not unexpected, most guys struggle in their initial exposure, particularly in center. It's not true in every case, but I think as a general matter you need to live with growing pains out there for at least a few dozen games before you have any idea if the guy has the instincts to play the outfield.
Alex Remington
With Josue De Paula set to potentially play a larger role for the Dodgers as they fight for their lives, is there anything that a prospect like him could show you in a short series like this that could meaningfully affect your view of his outlook?
Brendan Gawlowski
He could pull an Arozerena I guess. That's probably the best example of a guy playing himself into a significantly higher grade just based on postseason performance alone.
WonderWall
When you watch a player on defense, what are you looking for to say that this player can stick at the position?
Brendan Gawlowski
Depends where they are on the journey. If it's a teenager on the complex, speed/athleticism are big. You'd also like to see good hands/feel for the hop if it's an infield position, but reliability is a little less important at that stage. For a guy in Triple-A or the majors, the bar is higher, and you want to see him make plays that an average player at that position can handle.
drplantwrench
of the angels many holes on the major league roster, which one(s) do you think can be reasonably filled by their non existent farm? or will stan kroenke need to spend his way through everything
Brendan Gawlowski
I wouldn't say the farm is non existent, there are some dudes down there. They're kind of far away though, Rada could help in '27 but that's probably going to be a rough big league season regardless of what they do.
Bud Smith
Back in the day, John Sickels had a theory that prospects with boring names tend to get underrated a bit (Brad Miller was the example that I recall). Have you encountered anything like that?
Brendan Gawlowski
I appreciate the unique angle here but… no?
schwarber raleigh burns
Who's a more promising version of the Joey Gallo archetype: Spencer Jones or Lazaro Montes?
Brendan Gawlowski
They take different routes to a similar place. I'd maybe lean Jones but they're fairly close together on my personal pref.
apeloton
Sss in full effect, but davalan hasn’t been hitting much in the afl – any sense of what the balance is of that being due to focusing more on fielding/it’s the hardest competition he’s faced/just random?
Brendan Gawlowski
It's a handful of games.
millvillemeltdown
on the subject of defense: how much are the "instincts" actually coachable? i'm spoiled as a frisbee player because i have a large, slow object that has fairly observable and predictable flight patterns, but i learned to make reads pretty fast. i don't know how that translates to baseball, esp supremely gifted athletes who seem to struggle to track fly balls
Brendan Gawlowski
I think good instincts give you a higher baseline from which to start. Guys can/do get better at things like tracking a ball in the air or reading a hop on the ground, but some people have a lower ceiling than others.
ADoctolero
Would it be fair to say that no farm system has jumped further up the power rankings than the Giants in the last calendar year?
Brendan Gawlowski
They're up there. St. Louis has an argument too. Atlanta is coming from a lower spot on the rankings but that system's up a decent bit, too.
Solitaire
Would you want to be a scout back in the pre-draft, no tech, no advance knowledge era? When a scout might show up at a game not knowing who anyone was looking for diamonds in the rough? Or is knowing who and what to look for, getting to review video and radar and such make it more enjoyable?
Brendan Gawlowski
Positives and negatives to both environments. The old days probably a tiny bit more fun but travel logistics were brutal back then.
nuxie
Alexander frias’s numbers dropped post trade.any concerns?
Brendan Gawlowski
No.
Kyler Jesanis
Who are some of the biggest risers since mid season reports?
Brendan Gawlowski
Kilby and Flewelling for me personally. Bernal has probably played his way onto the T100.
Ice Cream Helmet
How deep into off-the-field stuff do teams investigate potential draft picks to make sure they guy isn't a knucklehead? Do they ever hire like PIs or psychologists to screen kids?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't know about a PI but teams do their homework.
epigene13
Have you gotten any looks at Angeibel Gomez in the AFL, and if so, what were your impressions?
I know we are looking at the "whole" player, but can't we take a minute to appreciate how good Josue De Paula must be to go from Double A to be in consideration to start on the Dodgers in the playoffs?
Brendan Gawlowski
He's very good.
schwarber raleigh burns
Have you done much youth scouting overseas? I'd imagine a lot of that is still low-tech wild west style. Or am I naive and do these teams know every 14 year old worth looking at?
Brendan Gawlowski
Zero personally. Some teams are more organized than others in Latin America but there's a limit to how deep into the future you can peer when you're evaluating a 14 year old. There are tons of guys, pitchers especially, who don't pop until late into their teen years.
toshi
If you were in charge of the Mariners, would you be comfortable with Young and Emerson at 2B and SS next year?
Brendan Gawlowski
Young yes, Emerson I'd sure want to have a capable Plan B on hand.
Big Fan
Hello BG!
Brendan Gawlowski
Hello Big Fan
TheHeavy217
For the past several years one of the big talking points during the postseason has been how important it is for teams to have the ability to hit home runs. Yet Milwaukee, Cleveland and Tampa were 29th, 27th and 22nd respectively in that category. Not to mention they were right next to each other on the team ISO leaderboard (25th thru 27th). Why does this work for them? More specifically, how has Milwaukee been able to maintain the best OBP and nearly the best walk rate over the last couple seasons with so little power?
Brendan Gawlowski
Two slightly different things here. The home run factor in the postseason is magnified because there are fewer runs/baserunners in general, which means that homers have a disproportionate impact on run scoring relative to the regular season.
Brendan Gawlowski
To the question of how have teams who don't really hit homers are succeeding this postseason: There are still multiple ways to be successful and there's a lot of variance in a short series.
Brendan Gawlowski
As for Milwaukee: They have a lot of guys with really good approaches and hit tools. And, as Sam Miller said more eloquently than I'll paraphrase in one of his newsletters, there are some real benefits to being the team that hustles in an otherwise non-hustle league
Brendan Gawlowski
It's not that they get a ton of value in the aggregate out of infield groundballs but they squeeze more out of them than anybody else.
Jasperdog3329
Is S. Walcott on the major league roster and starting next spring? Timeline for J. Farmelo who has tools but has lost so much time to injuries?
Brendan Gawlowski
Walcott I'd be very surprised, for a couple reasons. He's blocked, for one, but also not ready. I spoke with a scout who made a persuasive case that he's the kind of player who could use a full year in Triple-A.
Brendan Gawlowski
Farmelo is another one who I don't think is on the fast track. Wouldn't be surprised if he needs most/all of '27 at Double-A. I think even an 85th-90th percentile season has him getting to Triple-A late in the summer.
Sonny L
After attending a lot of MiLB games at different levels I’m in awe of anyone who can ID an A ball player beyond ‘that guy is better than everyone here’ with any certainty that it means ‘he’ll play in the league’ or ‘he’s a star.’ What are markers at that level (hitter side) you found useful
Brendan Gawlowski
Nobody's good enough to tell you with certainty how many WAR a 20 year old in A ball is going to accrue in his career, but some blend of size/athleticism/tools/physical projection can usually tell you who's got a shot to be impactful.
mbushskbum
Did you have a chance to see Sam Horn, GDD? Does he have a future in MLB?
How concerned are you about Emerson going forward?
Brendan Gawlowski
I still think he's going to be a good player. But if I'm trying to contend next year, I don't think I'd plan on him as a "set it and forget it" SS from day one.
triplesandtea
Do you enjoy seeing a prospect attempt to make the knuckleballer conversion?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sure. Tend to think more guys should play around with it.
longsuffering
Is there a guy in the Jays org that no-one is talking about? I was wondering if Ryan Sprock might be that guy.
Brendan Gawlowski
I've just about wrapped up Toronto's list. He'll be on there, likely as a 40 unless sources are all over the guy in a way I'm not anticipating.
Tommyfastball
When you look at a guy like Justin Gonzales, what are the things that you'd see to say "Wow, he's going elite" as opposed to "Let's see how this goes…"
Brendan Gawlowski
I'm more in the 'let's see how this goes' camp with him. He's got a lot going for him, and the power is clearly nuts. Odd swing, stiffer mover than most big prospects. It's not a slam dunk case where everything lines up.
wheelhouse
What’s the deal with George Lombard Jr.? Does he have to move off the position
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't have anticipate that. I think he can be above average at short, and I'm the low man here on his glove.
Michael
In your eyes, what happened with someone like Jasson Dominguez? Did pressure of being 'The Martian' get to him? Constant analysis of defensive miscues got to his head? Is there a post-prospect hype arc he could conceivably stumble upon? League average hitter in '25 with semi-regular at-bats…
Brendan Gawlowski
From what I can gather, there seems to have been a sizable gap between how baseball people evaluated him as a player — both publically and with teams — and how the public perceived his talent. Eric has a theory that the baseball card community is a factor here, particularly with players from the Yankees.
Brendan Gawlowski
And I can buy that.
Brendan Gawlowski
As a player, he projected as a regular but not a star. Guys like that fall short all the time.
Brendan Gawlowski
As for Dominguez himself, a second act as a 110-115 wRC+ player with shoddy defense in some kind of role — maybe more against righties than lefties? — wouldn't shock me.
apeloton
Emma Rodriguez and Mike Sirota have kinda similar offensive profiles and are the same age – does erod’s injury history explain the 2 grade gap between them? Something else I’m missing?
Brendan Gawlowski
It's a factor. The bigger thing is that it looks like Rodriguez will be vulnerable in a huge swath of the strike zone in a way that Sirota won't.
triplesandtea
Reverse of the Dominguez question – who is the player in recent memory that baseball folks were way, way higher on than the general fan public?
Brendan Gawlowski
This is one where different pockets will have different answers. The A's, for instance, were way higher on Esteury Ruiz… For scouts it'll often be toolsy guys with scary data… I really liked Spencer Jones the two times I saw him as a scout and was kind of oblivious to how he was a punchline online for all the strikeouts.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Hao-Yu Lee had a decent but not overwhelming rookie season. Is there another gear?
Brendan Gawlowski
I hope so, he's so fun to watch. He's limited enough defensively that I think "good reserve where you pick your spots/stretches to play him" is the reasonable projection.
Sonny L
Muni’s in zone fastball issues sure came out against Cleveland. Is this a case where over 162 enough pitchers will miss the hole and he punishes but in October better and more focused arms hammer that spot until he adjusts?
Brendan Gawlowski
Everybody suffers a little in the postseason as the competition gets tougher.
Brendan Gawlowski
But also, stuff happens in five games
Brendan Gawlowski
In five games from August 1 through August 6, he hit .136 /.208 /.182 with 12 K's and one double in 24 PA's.
Brendan Gawlowski
In five games from May 6 to May 12 he hit .111 /.238 /.278 with 12 strikeouts in 21 PA's against the mighty Angels/Mariners/Royals.
Andrew
Kellon Lindsay and Joendry Vargas are their stats inflated by the minor league hitting environment?
Brendan Gawlowski
Them and everybody else this year.
adbernardi
Much hope left for Carson Williams? Or is he an odd man out in Tampa?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't think he's going to hit.
Big Fan
Any updated Braves news you haven't shared with us before? The trade deadline refresh was much appreciated, and there were slew of promotions after that.
Brendan Gawlowski
Nothing beyond what I published in the AZ notes. I suspect they'll go fairly early in the list cycle.
smoothio
What did Salas’ performance with the Padres do to his prospect ranking?
Brendan Gawlowski
Very little, more because he's already 10th on our board. Not much room for us to move him!
Tristan
Unless he morphs into a LF this offseason, Sean Keys seems awfully blocked in Toronto. But he's also look a lot like the kind of bat they could use, particularly with the power and patience profile. Could he be a serviceable outfielder with reps, pushing others to DH at bats? Or do the Jays look for a trade partner? They often deal with the Guardians, who sure don't seem inclined to use Bibee for much this postseason…
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't think you're going to flip him for Tanner Bibee, if that's the question behind the question. You can find ways to get him in the game as a PH or at DH with occasional starts elsewhere. I think trying him in left and seeing how it looks is a reasonable idea. If he hits, they'll find a way to get the bat in there.
Tommyfastball
Are you taking an Amador victory lap?
Brendan Gawlowski
No, but glad he's a relevant player for COL again and cautiously optimistic that there's still a regular in there.
Brendan Gawlowski
You can never take a victory lap in this business.
Sonny L
If he’s not going to hit is Carson Williams the in-house all glove SS when Walls gets expensive?
Brendan Gawlowski
Could be, yeah.
Tommyfastball
You mentioned J. Gonz. was stiff. I've seen that critique for lots of guys. Have you ever seen someone get considerably less stiff? Like they went all yoga and loosened up their core?
Brendan Gawlowski
Usually goes the other way. There was a really good article 10 years ago or so about how Justin Verlander revived his career by limbering up, but that was more of a case where he'd let his flexibility atrophy a little bit rather than finding something brand new.
pdunes
How much of a leap do you expect Konkor Griffin to make next year?
Brendan Gawlowski
A pretty big one. I expect him to be very good next year.
crossedup
Were you able to look into some of the low lower Mariners starters like Jack Bowery?
Brendan Gawlowski
Thank you for your patience. Bowery/Easterly look like HM/35+ types. I like the strikes but they're succeeding by leaning on good execution of shapely but not particularly nasty secondaries. Never say never in this era but they don't strike me as especially projectable, either.
rdf8585
What do you make of what Vance Honeycutt did late in the season in AA and so far in the Arizona Fall League?
Brendan Gawlowski
I liked him more than I thought I was going to. Flawed hitter, still see a path to value as a good glove/danger bat off the bench even if he's pretty limited at the plate.
tmh198
Can Lazaro Montes become Murakami-lite (poor BA, acceptable OBP(.320's-.330's?), 35+ HRs?
Brendan Gawlowski
That's the projection right there.
tmh198
Does Anthony Eyanson have a chance to break camp in the rotation, or are we likely looking at May/Jun debut?
Brendan Gawlowski
~90/10 the latter.
Exile in St. Louis
Any thoughts on Nehomar Ochoa at the AFL? Classic big tool, big swing & miss profile the Dana Brown-led Astros fell for.
Brendan Gawlowski
Bench bat.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Who will emerge from the scrum to become the Cardinals' near- and long-term catcher?
Brendan Gawlowski
Reminds me of the situation the Jays were in about five years ago, lot of potential options, tough to go wrong. I've been a Bernal fan for a while, why stop now.
pdunes
Best baseball comp for Arch Manning?
Brendan Gawlowski
Jackson Holliday?
Chuck Berry
How badly has Winston Santos fallen in rankings this year :'(
Brendan Gawlowski
Sigh. From a valuation perspective, clearly a lot. We'll see how stubborn I'm feeling come the Rangers list.
tmh198
What's Kendry Chourio's upside?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sonny Gray.
Patrick Burke
What happened with Elmer Rodriguez this season? So you still see him being successful in the majors as he was in AAA?
Brendan Gawlowski
Very effective in AAA, major league cameos shone a bright light on his crudeness as a strike thrower. Still like him as a GB-generating SP prospect.
apeloton
Thanks for all the answers!
Brendan Gawlowski
And thank you for all the questions, always fun to hang out. Disappointed about the lack of enclave chat but like that we got to hit on a bunch of different teams/some players we don't often get to here. Let's do it again next eek.
I’m rolling out a bunch of notes from my recent trip to Arizona. Last week, I wrote about some of the top hitters in the Arizona Fall League, as well as a few backfields standouts for the Royals, Giants, and Padres. Today, we’ll dive into some of the pitchers from the AFL.
Susana has one of the strongest arms in professional baseball. The big righty sits 101-103, and generates it with a low-to-moderate effort delivery. For all its velo, Susana’s fastball doesn’t have bat-missing shape, and even the Fall Leaguers he faced were generally able to get the bat on the ball. His feel for release was off to start the game, and he frequently missed up early in the outing. Hitters couldn’t barrel it in the zone, though, and that will likely continue to be the case for Susana as long as he’s able to live anywhere near that velocity band.
Susana worked with two breaking balls. He used an occasional upper-80s slider, usually just as a way to get hitters off his primary secondary, a mid-80s sweeper. There aren’t a lot of guys who can get 15 inches of break on an 85-mph sweeper, but few pitchers have Susana’s arm talent. Read the rest of this entry »
I watched eight Arizona Fall League games over the last week, and today’s a good time to empty the notebook on some of the position players I saw. I’ve got a mix of updates on top prospects and notes on a couple off-the-radar names who impressed me. Let’s get to it, starting with perhaps the best player in the league.
Kilby looks great as a hitter. He’s quick and direct to the ball, he doesn’t leak early, his swing stays on plane forever, he adjusts well off the fastball, and he can use the whole field. He can seemingly get his hands everywhere, and the way he’s able to pull them in and turn around velocity is in a class with the Max Clarks and Kevin McGonigles of the world.
Kilby is also smooth and balanced at shortstop, rangy with a good internal clock. His throwing stroke looks pushy when he has time, but he can let it rip when he needs to get rid of the ball quickly. He looked like the best player on the field, and his stock surged for both Eric and me during my time in Arizona. Read the rest of this entry »
For four games, pitching chaos helped the South Siders reign. Armed with only one starter in his circle of trust, White Sox manager Will Venable leaned on his band of mostly young, mostly hard-throwing relievers. Who, and for how long, was dictated by circumstance. It worked early, as Chicago swept through Houston in the Wild Card Series and jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the ALDS against the Guardians. Venable pressed all the right buttons — the staff allowed just nine runs across those first four games — and deserves a ton of credit for getting a dozen pitchers to embrace such a novel strategy on the fly.
All along, we’ve been waiting for the other shoe to drop. How long can the White Sox get away with throwing Grant Taylor multiple frames every outing? Will Hagen Smith finally pay for walking a batter per inning? What happens if Chicago needs an actual starter to eat a couple of innings?
The first cracks in the dam appeared Wednesday, when Chicago walked 10 and the Guardians exploded for nine runs. Water trickled through in the early innings of Thursday’s Game 4, too, and then burst through all at once as Cleveland, again facing elimination, defeated the White Sox, 9-5, to force a do-or-die Game 5 on Saturday. Read the rest of this entry »
I just finished an extended trip to watch instructs and the Arizona Fall League, and I’ve got enough in the notebook for a few posts. We’ll start with some of the looks I got at Royals, Giants, and Padres prospects on the backfields and, in a few cases, during the AFL as well. Let’s hop to it.
We’ll start with the guy people will ask about first. Gomez is a tapered 6-foot-2. While he isn’t a freaky athlete in the Elly De La Cruz mold, he’s limber and has a fast bat for a kid his age. Facing some of the best stuff of his life, his feel for hitting stood out. Gomez is athletic in the box, and he was able to fight off above-average velo on the hands, turn around 97 above the belt, and flatten the bat and hit a line drive on a hard fastball up, all while holding his own versus spin. He fouled off a couple tough sliders and took one just beneath the zone. He wasn’t perfect — he expanded the zone a few times and chased a curve in the dirt — but it was a really impressive showing in context.
Where does this go from here? To my eye, Gomez doesn’t look like an early-mature guy, but he also isn’t someone who screams “physical projection” in the way that, say, Sebastian Walcott did at his age. Gomez already has average measurable power, and while there’s room for him to grow into more, my projection leans closer to “comfortably plus” than “80.” Read the rest of this entry »
Saw him on the backfields, where he hit everything. Didn't get much of Surprise and he wasn't in the lineup there when I did. But he looks hitterish.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Does Henry Bolte have another gear beyond what he showed this season?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't think so. He already hit for power than you'd think for someone with a 60%+ ground ball rate and a lot of strikeouts.
Resolution
Any insights on Jack O’Dowd’s ability to stick at catcher? Has been rougher so far but he’s still newish to the position
Brendan Gawlowski
Didn't look good. Arm very light for it, couple pop times in the 2.15 range yesterday.
Kevin Kelsey
Jake Monroe a borderline top 100?
Brendan Gawlowski
No. Has barrel feel but that's the only tool. Fringy at third, oppo shooter with below average power.
riibett
Are you more of an Owen Carey or Connor Essenburg guy?
Brendan Gawlowski
Essenburg. I don't want to overreact to a few AFL games but Carey looked ordinary this past week.
Kevin Kelsey
Can Braxton Bragg get back to being a well regarded maybe mid rotation arm?
Brendan Gawlowski
I'd take the under. Saw him last week, sat 92-94, breaking ball looked just okay.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Would you rather have Kevin Alvarez or Xavier Neyens out of the Astros' system?
Brendan Gawlowski
Alvarez. I'm not sure Neyens can hit.
Phil
Who goes from Worcester to Boston this winter/spring? Arias I should hope, but I'm wondering about the long-awaited Duran trade opening up a spot for Campbell. Are there other good fits?
Brendan Gawlowski
Red Sox list will be out fairly early in the cycle, which will presumably answer this in a lot of detail. Arias will be up early, possibly Opening Day depending on what Boston does this winter. As for Campbell, he's going to have to hit his way back into town.
rainingmozzarella
How has Demetrio Crisantes and Patrick Forbes looked so far, if you've had a chance to see them?
Brendan Gawlowski
Did not see Forbes; Crisantes was his usual self. Fast, good barrel feel. Better than a lot of the pitchers he'll face.
Charles Bengal Tiger
A follow-up on the Alvarez-Neyens question. Is Albert Fermin a comparable prospect to Alvarez?
Brendan Gawlowski
No.
rainingmozzarella
So since the Dbacks have a bloated payroll, bad farm system, and way too many holes, do you think it makes sense to trade either Perdomo or Moreno to get a bunch of pieces back?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sounds like payroll is about to go down, too. I don't think I would, with Burnes back and Pfaadt (perhaps) having turned a corner, I'd keep the core intact for another run.
rainingmozzarella
In an effort for the Dbacks to get more pitching depth, do you think Tommy Troy for Karson Milbrandt makes sense for both sides?
Brendan Gawlowski
If you were really confident that you could reliably get Millbrandt back into the strike zone, sure. But I don't know how you could be.
Churlayla
Rafe Perich. What's the fatal flaw?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't know if he has a fatal flaw, more that fringy defense and a power-over-hit skillset likely make him more of a supplementary fit than an everyday guy.
higginsford
What are the top 1 or 2 things you would focus on if you were hired as the A's GM?
Brendan Gawlowski
Figuring out what the altitudinal effects of the new park will look like and building a pitching plan around that from soup to nuts.
Cosmo
How likely is it that either Josuar or Walcott are the #1 prospect sometime next summer?
Brendan Gawlowski
Josuar's time in that airspace is more likely in 2028
ImKeithHernandez
Do the Mets have a #1, #3, and #5 in McLean, Scott, and Thornton?
Brendan Gawlowski
Good way to think of it. Maybe shorting Thornton a little bit.
Solitaire
When an athletic corner outfielder with well-above average sprint speed grades out well below average as a fielder, specifically from range, is the conclusion just "this guy takes bad routes because he misreads the ball?" Can you teach that? This question is about Dylan Beavers, but I feel like I see it often
Brendan Gawlowski
That can be part of it. First step/acceleration comes into play too. This can get better with time and reps but some guys just have better instincts and reads than others.
Churlayla
Thanks for taking our queries!
Brendan Gawlowski
You're welcome. I may have screwed something up in how I scheduled this, there aren't many folks in here today relative to most weeks. So, uh, good odds if you have a question…
higginsford
Do you think Jefferson Rojas and Brayden Taylor contribute at the MLB level next year? Have them in an Ottoneu league
Brendan Gawlowski
Fantasy is a little out of my realm but my instinct is that neither should be lynchpins of your 2027 plans.
Churlayla
Max Anderson breaks camp at the keystone in Detroit?
Brendan Gawlowski
I would guess not. Re-signing Gleyber would make sense for them, but even if they keep it internal, I'd prioritize getting Lee in the lineup first.
crossedup
Where are we at on Tai Peete? Stat wise it seems like he took a step forward with some help of a near .400 babip; was there any notable change to his set up or swing at the plate to go with it?
Brendan Gawlowski
Spin has been the big issue with him. It still is but perhaps to a slightly lesser degree. This is a guy to stay patient with, if he hits, he'll hit big. Prospects move so quickly these days, he's one I'd continue to push slowly.
viceroy
Names to watch in Fall and winter leagues? Maybe prospects who were hyped and then hurt and these will be the first looks at them in a minute
Brendan Gawlowski
I'll have notes on a lot of these guys in the coming days but… Lot of pitchers match that description… Kannon Kemp, Braxton Bragg, Jake Bloss… I liked R.J. Sales yesterday, too. Among the hitters, Dax Kilby blew me away, Wyatt Sanford and Nathan Hall are really interesting. Tai Peete and Braylon Payne are fun/toolsy. Alex McCoy may hit one to Mars.
tdmoc
Any chance you'll be at tomorrow's Peoria/Glendale game? Curious about Patrick Reilly 50+ innings into his TJS return.
Brendan Gawlowski
Back home, unfortunately. Perhaps Eric will be at the game…
viceroy
Why didn’t Max Anderson get a shot down the stretch? Is the glove work an issue? Are they skeptical of the approach even though it’s worked so far? Issues against heat/spin?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't see him as an impact guy.
Bud Smith
Get a chance to see Susana?
Brendan Gawlowski
I did. Sat 101-103, low effort, which is a real thing I just typed. Pairs it with a low-mid 80s sweeper mostly, threw a couple harder breaking balls. He'll be high on the T100.
oaktownblues
Should the A's stretch Luis Medina back out to be a starter? Or keep in him in the pen now that he's had some success?
Brendan Gawlowski
Bullpen, I don't think he has the command to start, and the fastball plays down from the number.
crossedup
What's the off-season scheduling look like? Odds and ends from the AFL and planning for the Top prospect lists?
Brendan Gawlowski
I'll have a bunch of notes in the next week, they're long enough that we're planning to publish a few posts to stagger them. From there, Eric is working furiously on Asian players, we'll need to prepare a 2027 draft board, and of course lists, lists, lists. I'm 98.54% done with one list and 89.14% done with a second.
Brendan Gawlowski
I'd also like to write a follow up to the pro scouting piece that ran at the end of September.
higginsford
I know y'all got a lot on your plate but around when do you think an initial list will go on THE BOARD for the 2027 draft?
Brendan Gawlowski
Eric and I talked about this when I was down in Phoenix. Before the start of the college season, late January or early February would be my guess.
Churlayla
Franklin Primera. Get excited or he just overpowered the level?
Brendan Gawlowski
Little of both. Expecting him to be a 45+ this winter. Sneak peak on the conclusion: "While the hit tool is really exciting, Primera is not especially projectable, and we want to see how his swing and approach hold up against better pitching before we dive in with both feet. He’s the kind of player where, were I still scouting for a team, I’d write him up as an everyday player without hesitation, but from a valuation perspective, we think it behooves us to stay patient for a little while longer. "
CherryTomato
First full healthy season from Farmelo. Anything unexpected from his performance?
Brendan Gawlowski
Not really, was worried that the injuries might've taken a bite out of his speed, but fortunately that wasn't the case. Otherwise, showed the talent and the swing and miss you'd expect with his long swing. We'll see if better pitching forces an adjustment soon.
Solitaire
I get the impression that high/low effort on velocity is treated as quite important/valuable but I'm not sure I've seen analysis confirming that. I've seen HOF starters who look like they're max efforting all the time and I've seen middle reliever Andrew Kittredge casually throw 96 like he's in the backyard. Curious your thoughts. Does looking like you're not trying actually mean it's easy? Are our monkey brains just stuck on facial expressions as important identifiers?
Brendan Gawlowski
Lot to unpack here. I generally but not always like lower effort because, in my experience at least, it correlates with better strike throwing and health. It's certainly not a 1:1 relationship with either. I don't recall where I read it, but Scherzer had a really insightful perspective on this, and on how he's been able to stay healthy even though he's a high effort guy because he's so strong and coordinated that he's able to pitch without over-stressing his arm.
Brendan Gawlowski
For most of the non-freak athletes, it's really hard to put the ball where you want if you're trying to throw it as hard as you can.
Charles Bengal Tiger
What would an 80th percentile outcome on Logan Hughes look like?
Brendan Gawlowski
Late career Joc with smoother peaks and valleys.
niall
Among baseball writers, I've noticed that there's a lot of mention around IP as the proxy to measure SP workload in the minors and majors. I started thinking about this after noticing Brody Hopkins and Kendry Chourio pitched a similar number of innings despite Hopkins facing about 100 more batters (very different types of pitcher, obviously). Do you get the sense teams/scouts are using this proxy or is this more of a shorthand where they're measuring something else to get at the "load" on pitchers?
Brendan Gawlowski
Shorthand. Teams have other ways to more precisely measure workload/stress.
Churlayla
What's for lunch?
Brendan Gawlowski
Man, I just had breakfast, why so ambitious?
crossedup
Following up from last chat; were you able to take a look at the Mariners lower minor starters? I know you were a bit interested in Bowery but there was also Reid Easterly and Scott Rouse. I know you were in AFL so not sure if you had a chance to look.
Brendan Gawlowski
Sorry, next chat I got you.
Haste11
Does Ralphy V win the starting 1B job in Cleveland on Opening Day? It feels like he doesn't have anything left to prove in AAA
Brendan Gawlowski
Lot of variables, new CBA might have something to say about this. You will see him soon, whether it's Opening Day or not is subject to factors outside of his control/performance.
Brendan Gawlowski
On talent, he could do it.
Fangraphs Man
Has Hagen Smith showed anything in his cup of coffee that makes you think he’s more likely to be a starter long term?
Brendan Gawlowski
No, strengths — awesome stuff — and weaknesses — below average control — in his game have long been apparent and we're seeing them these playoffs.
Churlayla
Ethan Anderson is the #2 C behind Basallo by August 2027?
Brendan Gawlowski
I think Anderson and Willems both are better fits as third catchers than traditional backups. Particularly with Basallo around, who you may not want to catch everyday anyway, I think BAL would prefer to have a better defender as the backup. But that's speculation.
Samuel Clemens
What does Tyler Bremner need to work on to keep moving up and be an effective SP with the Angels,
Brendan Gawlowski
Needs a better breaking ball.
scottsjunk1981
Any new rumors about whether and when there will be an R5 draft? Have you heard of any teams drawing a meaningfully different line than in most seasons?
Brendan Gawlowski
Haven't done any true reporting on this, but the scouts I sat with weren't optimistic.
Churlayla
Caden Bodine is catching MLB games by June?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sure, why not.
GB
Any plans to add a scouting report to Yostin Pena?
Brendan Gawlowski
Yes he'll get an extended writeup when we do NYY. I suspect they'll be fairly early in the list cycle.
wheelhouse
I’ve read that the yankees’ terrible fundamentals permeate their whole system down through the minors. Is that what you’ve seen, and how long would it take to address? Years?
Brendan Gawlowski
It does, they're really sloppy. In theory it could be a fairly quick fix.
jazzrunner12
Do the Tigers give Valencia 400 at bats next year? That was quite an impressive debut but he's 26 not 23. Also, do the Angels let Nelson Rada take over CF for most of the year?
Brendan Gawlowski
He's a tricky one to plan around, because the approach is aggressive/exploitable and you don't want to go into the year with him as a starter and have no Plan B. At the same time, he can be both really flawed and a lot worse next year… and still be a guy you want to give 500+ PA's anyway. So, yes, tentatively.
Brendan Gawlowski
As for the second question, this depends as much on how they want to man-manage Trout as it does on Rada's talent. I suspect, one way or the other, he'll play out there plenty. You might have to wait a bit for him to be the everyday guy.
wheelhouse
What do you attribute it to? Is it a question of the players they acquire or a lack of coaching emphasis? It’s bizarre to me that it’s such a glaring embarrassment on their big league squad and they’ve never done anything to correct it in their system
Brendan Gawlowski
This is a follow up to the Yankees question… Probably a little bit of both? It's not like any of the players or coaches want to see errors or whatnot. But, clearly there's an apparatus where both the acquisition groups and the coaching/dev staffs are willing to live with it if the guy can otherwise play.
canderson20
Do you have any insight on how teams decide who is going to play in the AFL? Thinking of a guy like Braden Nett who could seemingly use some extra innings due to time on IL this year compared to Kenya Huggins who had mostly a full season.
Brendan Gawlowski
Varies from team to team. Some see it as a valuable place to get innings/extra AB's, others couldn't care less and send a bunch of orgs to fill out a roster.
Brendan Gawlowski
I will say: If I was a player, I don't know if I'd want to go to the AFL. The atmosphere in the park is lethargic, the competition is just okay, a lot of the players/coaches don't want to be there, some of the rule experiments might be frustrating… It's not for everybody.
rainingmozzarella
Any idea why Milbrandt had issues throwing strikes in AAA? 64.4% strike rate in AA down to 57.4% in AAA. That's a huge decline. Was it issues getting acclimated to the different ball?
Brendan Gawlowski
I would just be speculating. The ball is a common issue for guys jumping to AAA. Both because they're developing feel for it but also because some guys don't get nearly the same movement and batters don't chase to the same degree.
Phil
There was a funny question in the Red Sox post mortem press conference–a reporter asked Craig Breslow if he would draft Craig Breslow (I think the implication would be that, as an analytics/Driveline guy, he only cares about velocity and spin). Breslow averred that he would–that he would recognize himself as someone with the ability to induce weak contact, regardless of the approach. But Breslow was drafted in teh 26th round (which I don't think still exists?)–how would, in fact, a guy like that, an ivy league LOOGY type with unimpressive velo. fare today? Would anyone draft Craig Breslow?
Brendan Gawlowski
With the caveat that I have only the vaguest feel for what Breslow's game looked like in college… He probably had some kind of standout or outlier trait, whether it was command, deception, changeup quality, I don't know. With his arm strength, it's hard to imagine he'd have been selected early, and while he might've been someone that would get taken in the 12th or 18th round today, it's possible he wouldn't be selected at all. Obviously, I think, the shorter draft and quicker development trajectory are filtering out guys who would develop into big leaguers in another context.
philly
Would be curious to hear any AFL thoughts on Flewelling. I thought it odd Tampa would send a young catcher coming off a full season.
Brendan Gawlowski
He looked good, only saw him play one game, but liked the approach and swing. Personally, I'd take him over Bodine.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Brock Wilken. Is there still hope?
Brendan Gawlowski
Maybe as a bench bat.
scottsjunk1981
What's your take on players who far exceed expectations in their rookie seasons and then fall back to being replacement-ish? Did the league adjust? Did they just start on a favorable part of the random walk? As a Nats fan, I'm specifically looking at Parker and Irvin and worrying about Alvarez.
Brendan Gawlowski
Sometimes the league adjusts, sometimes guys are able to execute their stuff for a stretch in a way that they can't over the long haul.
Churlayla
Bold prediction: Boston fans throw something/one in the harbor if Arias isn't at the 6 on day one.
Brendan Gawlowski
Every fanbase has its overreactors…
vottogoat
Any thoughts from Michael Arroyo's cup of coffee in the majors this year? Chance to be a regular next year?
Brendan Gawlowski
Didn't play much, unfortunately, bizarre that the M's gave Weston Wilson so many AB's down the stretch. When he did play, he kept on doing the same things he's always done…
Churlayla
Do you have prospects you can't contain your excitement about or has your career taught you to stay relatively 'flat' and wait for things to play out thru the minors?
Brendan Gawlowski
I enjoy the journey.
canderson20
Cardinals brass reported they're going to have Rainiel start working 3b into the mix for him this offseason. If he takes to the position, would it move him up or down the rankings?
Brendan Gawlowski
Steady.
tdmoc
Any big takeaways from your first (nearly) full year working here?
Brendan Gawlowski
Nothing earth shattering. There are a lot of people within the game who read this stuff… I like being able to cover the game globally and write things like the Brandon Valenzuela re-eval and (especially) the pro scouting piece…
OranguTongs
Anyone down in Arizona who looks like the next Jonah Tong?
Brendan Gawlowski
GDI.
Churlayla
Joseph Dzwiera is in the BAL rotation by mid-season?
Brendan Gawlowski
I suspect he'll get a look by that point, at least…
Churlayla
Nelson Rada? Raudi Rodriguez is the stud and he'll come off the top rope to remind you if need be! Lol
Brendan Gawlowski
– glances at Angels Roster Resource – There's… room for both of them.
Brendan Gawlowski
Think I'm going to shut it down here today. Thanks as always for stopping by, I'll be back in the normal Tuesday window again next week. Enjoy the postseason and see you soon.
On Wednesday night, the San Diego Padres eliminated the Chicago Cubs from the playoffs with a 4-1 win. A sold-out, frenzied crowd watched the Friars get to Kevin Gausman early, scoring two runs in the second after a double from Ty France, singles from Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts, and a sacrifice fly from Ethan Salas. A two-run homer from pinch-hitter Gavin Sheets in the fourth put San Diego up by three, and from there, the Cubs barely threatened. It was just the latest big moment in a summer full of them for the Padres: A team that saw its playoff odds drop to 7% in late July will now head to Milwaukee for the NLDS.
When you think about this generation of the San Diego Padres, a number of descriptors may spring to mind. “Exciting” works, for all the stars they’ve rostered and playoff runs they’ve made. “Unpredictable” captures the spirit of a front office bold enough to empty the farm year after year, postseason probability be damned. “Competitive” — you heard all those F-bombs during the game last night, yes? — applies, as might “brash,” particularly if you’re from Los Angeles or Phoenix.
But watching this game, I kept thinking about how poised they looked. It’s an unfamiliar feeling watching this group: Fernando Tatis Jr. is many wonderful things, but there’s very little mellow to him or the team he headlines. In an emotional game, though, which is exactly how they looked, and nobody epitomized that more than San Diego’s young catcher. Read the rest of this entry »
