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2017 Trade Deadline Day Chat

11:59
Travis Sawchik: Happy Trade Deadline Day, folks

12:00
Travis Sawchik: T-minus four hours until the non-waiver deadline …

12:01
The String Cheese Incident: Think the Tigers are done, or do you see another piece (Kinsler, Iglesias, etc.) moving today?

12:02
Travis Sawchik: Tigers seem committed to moving pieces so I could see another trade or two … not sure what the market is like for Kinsler. …. They need to do better than the J.D. Martinez return

12:02
Benny from the Glock: Would Yankees push for Darvish if Gray fell through?

12:03
Travis Sawchik: Darvish is a shorter-term option, of course, but it seems logical that they would target him if Gray fell through

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Cubs Win Justin Wilson Bidding War

While Zach Britton is the big name, and Brad Hand has been priced like an even bigger name, Justin Wilson might have actually been the most sought after reliever on the market this week. Basically every contender in baseball wanted him. The finalists were reportedly the Dodgers, Astros, Nationals, and Cubs, and the Tigers really couldn’t have asked for a better group to have bidding up the price on their best trade chip.

In the end, it appears that the Cubs put the offer on the table Detroit liked most. While the deal isn’t official yet, the teams are reportedly reviewing medical information, which means it should be done soon.

The deal is reportedly as follows.

Chicago Receives
Player Position Age 2017 WAR Rest of Season WAR Contract
Justin Wilson RP 29 0.9 0.5 Arbitration for 2018
Alex Avila C 30 1.9 0.8 Free Agent after 2017
ROS WAR is based on ZIPS/Steamer projection of 24 IP for Wilson and 170 PA for Avila.
Detroit Receives
Prospect Position Age Level Prospect Rank
Jeimer Candelario 3B 23 Triple-A #4, 50 FV
Isaac Paredes SS 18 Low-A #17, 40 FV
Prospect Rank is based on Eric Longenhagen’s preseason team write-ups.

The strong market for Wilson reflects the way the game has changed. He’s only been a closer for a couple of months now, and he has just 14 career saves. His ERA last year was 4.14. He’s never been an All-Star. Yet all of the best teams in baseball wanted him, because despite the lack of accolades, Justin Wilson is really good.

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The Yu Darvish Conundrum

Heading into last night’s start, the Rangers were reportedly still undecided on what to do with Yu Darvish at the trade deadline. At 49-51, they weren’t exactly playing like a postseason contender, but the mediocrity of the American League means they’re still in the Wild Card race, which would point towards keeping their ace to try and make a run. But in a market saturated with low-end arms, Darvish would be the rare premium starting pitcher available, and the team could potentially land a significant return for a player they might lose in free agency this winter.

So with a bunch of scouts on hand, the team had to hope Darvish would give them some clarity. Instead, his start only made things more confusing.

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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 7/26/17

12:00
Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone. We’re coming up on the trade deadline, but more and more, I get the feeling that this isn’t going to be a particularly exciting few days.

12:00
Dave Cameron: Sonny Gray is going to go. A bunch of solid relievers will get moved.

12:00
Dave Cameron: But I don’t know that we’re going to see any blockbusters.

12:02
Ned Yost: Altuve leads Judge in both bWAR and fWAR, plays a premium defensive position, and is on a team that is significantly better than Judge’s. There is no saber-metric or old school argument you can use against him. He’s the MVP.

12:02
Dave Cameron: They’re tied at +5.5. Position is already included in WAR. Team strength is irrelevant.

12:02
Dave Cameron: Congratulations for taking a hard-line stance on something where it’s perfectly reasonable to pick one or the other, though.

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Red Sox Acquire Eduardo Nunez, Who Is Okay

On Sunday, the Red Sox announced they were promoting top prospect Rafael Devers from Triple-A and inserting him as their starting third baseman, filling a spot that had been a pretty big problem for the team this year. Last night, Devers made his Major League debut in Seattle, drawing a pair of walks off of Felix Hernandez and Edwin Diaz. But while Devers was playing his first Major League game, the Red Sox acquired a guy who might end up taking his job.

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“The Cooperstown Casebook” Excerpt: The War on WAR

What follows is an excerpt from Chapter 6 — “The War on WAR” — of Jay Jaffe’s new book, The Cooperstown Casebook, which is out in stores today. You can also read Paul Swydan’s review of the book over at The Hardball Times.

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The Trade Deadline Doesn’t Matter As Much This Year

We’re now a week away from the July 31st trade deadline, so over the next seven days, we’ll probably some pretty good players change hands. Sonny Gray is going to be dealt. Yu Darvish might be. A.J. Ramos, Justin Wilson, Brad Hand, Addison Reed, and Pat Neshek will strengthen various bullpens. Every contender wants to add an arm or two, and so we’ll see a lot of pitching-oriented trades.

But if your favorite team doesn’t make a deal in the next seven days, I wouldn’t get too frustrated, because this year, the August trade market might be a more viable way to upgrade than in most years. For a pretty good group of players, the July 31st deadline isn’t really any kind of deadline at all.

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Mariners and Cardinals Swap Upside For Depth

Heading into the year, the Mariners plan seemed to be to acquire as many low-ceiling middling prospects as they could find and throw them all at the wall, hoping one or two would help stabilize the back end of the team’s rotation. Over the last year and change, they’ve acquired and started Ariel Miranda, Dillon Overton, Chase De Jong, Chris Heston, Christian Bergman, and Ryan Weber. Thanks to a .220 BABIP, Miranda’s been a reasonable enough starter for the team, but most of the other guys made a few low-quality appearances and were then shipped back to Triple-A.

But the Mariners are apparently undeterred, and are trying this strategy one more time.

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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 7/21/17

12:02
Dave Cameron: Happy Friday, everyone. Jeff and I switched days this week because he wanted to go climb something this weekend. I fully expect there to be 20 trades in the next 24 hours since he’s gone.

12:02
Charles the Cat: If the Cubs are to get one more starter, who do you think they get?

12:04
Dave Cameron: The rumor of the morning put them on Darvish, but there are diminishing returns on adding another guy at that level. You’re starting Lester/Quintana/Arrieta in the postseason, so if you pick up Darvish, one of those guys makes just one start in a seven game series.

12:05
Dave Cameron: So I’d think it would be more like an Estrada type, a guy who could potentially be a buy low and would give them depth if Hendricks has more problems, then could maybe be a reliever in October.

12:06
MK: With everyone focused on Nats bullpen issues, is adding a starter or left fielder the main priority now?

12:06
Dave Cameron: I don’t think they need a starter. They basically have a playoff spot locked up, and Scherzer/Strasburg/Gio/Roark is fine for the postseason.

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The White Sox’ Big Bets On Risk

On Tuesday, the White Sox completed their latest trade, sending Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle to New York for a trio of prospects and Tyler Clippard, who was included as a salary offset. In the span of four major trades, the team added 15 minor leaguers, including most of their best-ranked prospects now. And when you look at where these guys rank on the Baseball America mid-season Top 100, it’s easy to see why White Sox fans are excited about the organization’s now-bright future.

CHW’s Recently Acquired Prospects
BA Rank Pre-Season Rank Player Position
1 1 Yoan Moncada 2B
5 11 Eloy Jimenez OF
20 24 Michael Kopech SP
36 37 Blake Rutherford OF
59 23 Reynaldo Lopez SP
75 40 Lucas Giolito SP
83 90 Dylan Cease SP

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