2017 Trade Deadline Day Chat

by
July 31, 2017
11:59
Travis Sawchik: Happy Trade Deadline Day, folks
12:00
Travis Sawchik: T-minus four hours until the non-waiver deadline …
12:01
The String Cheese Incident: Think the Tigers are done, or do you see another piece (Kinsler, Iglesias, etc.) moving today?
12:02
Travis Sawchik: Tigers seem committed to moving pieces so I could see another trade or two … not sure what the market is like for Kinsler. …. They need to do better than the J.D. Martinez return
12:02
Benny from the Glock: Would Yankees push for Darvish if Gray fell through?
12:03
Travis Sawchik: Darvish is a shorter-term option, of course, but it seems logical that they would target him if Gray fell through

12:04
Travis Sawchik: Division race could be tight so Darvish could have a chance to make a real impact
12:04
Jonah: What does a Hand to Astros package look like?
12:04
Travis Sawchik:

Brad Hand’s last 17 appearances:

17 1/3 IP, 0 R, 21 Ks, 12 hits, 2 BB

27 Jul 2017
12:05
Travis Sawchik: I believe he has 2.5 years of control remaining so it should be significant
12:05
Travis Sawchik: He’s Andrew Miller Lite
12:06
Dave Cameron: You think we could get Rosenthal and cash from Fox for Cistulli and a lower level writer?
12:06
Travis Sawchik: Cistulli signed a club-friendly deal with no opt out so it’s unlikely
12:06
toki: Lucroy to Coors.  Big upside offensively and bigger liability defensively?
12:07
Travis Sawchik: I don’t like this move for the Rockies and for several reasons ….
12:07
Travis Sawchik: Lucroy is not hitting
12:07
Travis Sawchik: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=7870&legend=1&statArr=50…
12:08
Travis Sawchik: And he’s become a poor framer at the bottom of the zone, where he used to be elite
12:08
Travis Sawchik: And guess what club throws more off-speed pitches in the lower part of the zone than any other club? The Rockies. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/have-the-rockies-found-answers-at-altit…
12:09
Broken Bat Single: Do you think Kintzler ends up somewhere else by the end of the day?
12:09
Travis Sawchik: I do.

As @jcrasnick just said, Brandon Kintzler is the most in demand of the #Twins in play.
31 Jul 2017
12:09
Travis Sawchik: In
Ken I trust
12:10
K: Who you think pirates trade today.
12:11
Travis Sawchik: I liked the Pirates as soft sellers a month ago and i still do today. Nicasio, Freese, Watson are the piece I’d move. Keep Cole and McCutchen unless overwhelmed
12:12
Senor Beisbol: For Yankee fans emotionally preparing for a Gray deal: If it’s Florial/Acevado/two lottery tickets for Gray/Alonso, how should we feel?
12:13
Travis Sawchik: I think the Yankees should be aggressive at the deadline
12:14
Travis Sawchik: I love Alonso in that ballpark and Gray has control beyond this year, of course . That’s a deal that could win you a division. So I’d be OK with it
12:14
Alec: Could the Indians and Royals win streaks come at any better time for the Twins front office? This has to give them coverage to sell off some pieces. Think they make any moves?
12:15
Travis Sawchik: I think Kintzler goes. Yeah, it’s nice cover for a team that does not have realistic aspirations of playing meaningful Oct baseball
12:16
Joe: Is what the Orioles should do different from what the Orioles will do?
12:16
Travis Sawchik: Given their playoff odds of 3.8% http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx they ought to move everything they can
12:17
Travis Sawchik: Orioles are in a tough spot. But I think the sooner they commit to a full rebuild the better off they will be
12:17
David Forst: I happen to think the Yankees are being meanies with Gray. What should I ask for?
12:18
Travis Sawchik: You should be pretty greedy … and you don’t have to move Gray at this deadline
12:19
careagan: New rumors have Dodgers eyeing a Darvish/Claudio package. I think Verdugo is a fair centerpiece and Buehler is the Dodgers’ lone untouchable at this deadline, but a lot of fans and some writers are balking at trading Verdugo. Do you think he’s the necessary piece to get a deal done with Texas?
12:19
Travis Sawchik: That’s too steep for me. And Darvish is almost something of a luxury item
12:20
Dominik: Are the cubs now on par with astros and Dodgers? Their underperforming hitting bounced back the last two months and their bullpen is great now. And with the quintana  addition the rotation now stacks up really well too. The shift
12:20
Travis Sawchik: The Cubs were never as poor as they played in the first half, many expected this bounce back, but they are still a cut or two below the Dodgers and Astros
12:21
David B: Is Zach Britton someone who could clear waivers in August?
12:21
Travis Sawchik: I don’t think so
12:22
Avi Garcia: Do the indians really seem like the best fit for britton? it seems they’re already loaded in the bullpen and an injury prone rotation is more in need of fortification. so if not the indians where is the best spot for britton?
12:22
Travis Sawchik: I think the Indians could use another arm, particularly a left with Boone Logan likely lost for the season
12:23
Mike: Gray to Yankees is “gaining more traction” Do you think the Yanks have softened their stance on the no top 3 prospects?
12:23
Travis Sawchik:

Sonny Gray to #Yankees remains the expectation of multiple execs involved in pitching market, but no sign yet that deal is imminent. @MLB
31 Jul 2017
12:24
Travis Sawchik: I don’t know how much softening is occurring, though 3.5 hours before the deadline is probably when it would occur
12:24
Travis Sawchik: The Yankees have a difficult balancing act …
12:25
Travis Sawchik: Their best days are still in 2019 and beyond, but they are also arriving ahead of schedule and adding an impact arm could help deliver a division
12:26
Travis Sawchik: I can see being aggressive to a degree. But I’d hang on to Gleyber Torres
12:26
itsddub19: Should the Giants trade Bumgarner
12:26
Travis Sawchik: Wouldn’t that be something?
12:30
Travis Sawchik: Sorry about that!
12:30
Travis Sawchik: I had about 20 browser windows open and my trusty laptop crashed #TradeDeadlineDayProblems
12:30
David B: How did Cleveland get out-bid for JD Martinez?
They could really use a RH OF bat, and apparently they were in on Martinez until the last minute.
12:31
Travis Sawchik: I think there should be a few teams kicking themselves on JD Martinez. Rockies, too
12:31
Steve: when does Dave come on? we don’t want you
12:32
Travis Sawchik: I know I am poor opening act. I believe Dave will be on later …
12:32
Thr33Rings: Garbage question. No way you should have even posted it. Mad Bum is the second best pitcher of this generation and the greatest postseason pitcher in history. He is the cornerstone of the Giant’s dynasty and should be untouchable. No prospect will ever reach the greatness of Madison. He loves San Francisco and would block all trades even though he doesn’t have a no trade clause. There would be a fan revolt… The Giants aren’t the A’s and treat their fans and players with respect! #FourRings
12:33
Travis Sawchik: I get it. I don’t think it’s a consideration. But is it really that crazy? This is a team 34.5 games out with one top 100 prospect on BA’s midseason rankings http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects…
12:34
Pinstripe Wizard: Chances that both Gray and Darvish aren’t moved?
12:34
Travis Sawchik: 12.5%
12:35
B: I know this is crazy, but what would the return be for Felipe Rivero? He is absolutely lights out, and looks like one of the best relievers in the game today.
12:35
Travis Sawchik: Hypothetically, Rivero should net a better return than Miller and Chapman did a year ago
12:35
Travis Sawchik: If that kind of return is out there, Pirates should listen
12:36
Travis Sawchik: And perhaps act…though I kinds of like the Pirates as a 2018 sleeper if they keep the core together
12:36
Bisciotti: Who has the best bullpen at the end of the day?
12:37
Travis Sawchik: Good question. And this might be a fluid situation. I love that the Yankees have five 30% K rate guys. Miller and Britton and Allen or Jansen and Britton would be incredible
12:38
Tom: thoughts on yankees including Dustin Fowler in gray trade? I know the Yankees have a high opinion of him.
12:38
Travis Sawchik: If the Yankees want a front line starter, the trade is going to have to hurt a little bit. I mean let’s consider what they received for two months of Chapman last season
12:39
Pine Marten: “Hey Cashman, it’s either Clint Frazier or Sonny Gray in a Red Sox uniform; choose wisely.”
12:39
Travis Sawchik: I’d love to hear some of these phone conversations (or read the text exchanges … complete with emojis)
12:40
Steve: Do Fangraphs World Series odds account for how a team’s roster will look in the playoffs? For example, is a team being punished for having a bad No. 5 starter when that guy isn’t even going to pitch in the playoffs?
12:40
Travis Sawchik: I don’t believe so …. and the game is warped in the postseason
12:41
Jeff: Is the trade deadline as important as I think?
12:41
Travis Sawchik: No. It’s a fun, drama-filled, but overrated event. I actually wrote about that idea today http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/history-suggests-we-curb-our-enthusiasm…
12:42
Travis Sawchik: Teams can do more damage to themselves by buying than holding on deadline day
12:42
B: Chris Devenski has been less than dominant lately, do you think the Astros would be wise to add another bullpen piece in order to give him some rest? He’s already pitched 60 innings, which is the most by anyone this season that hasn’t started a game. Is there cause for concern with Devenski?
12:44
Travis Sawchik: He’s had a rough July, for sure. Regardless, I could see the Astros trying to build an uber pen
12:44
filihok: Any reason to worry about Britton? He hasn’t been real good in July
12:45
Travis Sawchik: Yeah, he’s just come off the DL. So there is some fear and uncertainty there. But that should also drive the cost down and leave potential for a bargain
12:45
Fire Matheny: For the fantasy among us:  who is the guy to own in the San Diego and Minny bullpens 4 hours from now?
12:45
Travis Sawchik: Now is the time to be looking at those bullpen depth charts
12:45
Jake: I don’t get the love for Britton right now. He’s not the same pitcher as last year, coming off an injury, and is pitching like something is bothering him. Would much rather have Hand.
12:46
Travis Sawchik: I think there is probably a pretty robust market for Hand at the moment ….Britton involves more uncertainty
12:46
Tony: If the Rangers want 1 of Verdugo/Buehler for Darvish/Claudio, and you’re willing to do it (as LA)… don’t you first call Billy Beane and see how much more it would cost to get Gray/Coulombe instead?
12:47
Travis Sawchik: I would. I’d rather have Darvish RoS but Gray has the control
12:47
CamdenWarehouse: Am I imagining that the deadline used to be midnight and not 4:00, maybe 10 years ago or so?
12:48
Travis Sawchik: It used to be midnight …. 4 pm allows it to be more of a spectator sport
12:48
Travis Sawchik: Why not a prime time deadline at 9 pm?
12:48
Travis Sawchik: (Sorry for that suggestion every MLB beat writer)
12:49
Robbie: Seems like your piece contradicts some other articles out of 538 and I want to say something here, but can’t find it. While I think all agree that the added 5% now isn’t necessarily moving the needle, it’s best to bank on what you have now rather than what you might have later:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/should-your-team-buy-or-sell-at-t…
12:49
Travis Sawchik: That’s one way to look at it … But if you look at each postseason as something of a roll of the dice, I’d prefer to have as many rolls (future competitive seasons) as possible
12:50
Travis Sawchik: I believe Cueto in ’15 is the only “good” starting pitcher to be moved at the deadline who went on to be part of a WS winning team in the last 20 years. I think you can often do more harm than good in buying
12:51
Carl: When JD Martinez or Lucroy get traded for next to nothing, is there a relation to there upcoming free agency? Is that a sign that maybe they wont get as much as they hoped?
12:51
Travis Sawchik: I don’t think Lucroy had much value … and his acquisition by the Rangers last year is an example of the risk in buying an expensive item at the deadline. In a sense, all players are prospects in carrying unknowns … even MLers
12:52
Nelson: Does every minor leaguer get super nervous on deadline day?
12:52
Travis Sawchik: Hmmm. Probably depends on how the see their path to ML playing time
12:53
Lucy: Before I get ready for field goal practice, has this deadline shown that replacing me in a corner outfield spot is likely going to be dirt cheap in future years?
12:54
Travis Sawchik: Pretty interesting how little value is being placed there. Certainly one of the easier positions to fill, but it’s almost too undervalued at this point
12:55
Dub: so you believe in 2017 Lucroy more than 2016 Lucroy?
12:55
Travis Sawchik: He’s been in decline. Could he turn it around? I suppose. But I worry about where the bat and glove are trending. He was such a great player
12:56
Travis Sawchik: I’ve just been informed that Dave Cameron, the main act, will be taking over at 1 pm est
12:57
JTT: Minor leaguers usually get traded to bad teams, bad teams get you to the big leagues faster. I’d be stoked to get traded to the pihllies right about now
12:57
Travis Sawchik: I think most MiLBers would be OK with trades
12:58
Fangraphs Reader: Do you guys do a motivational speech a la Independence Day every morning of Trade Deadline Day? I like to imagine so.
12:58
Travis Sawchik: I suppose we could all get on Skype earlier in the day
12:59
CamdenWarehouse: 9:00 means that we don’t have to ignore work to follow it
12:59
Travis Sawchik: The US probably losses a several million in worker productivity due to the 4 pm trade deadline
12:59
Peter: So there’s lot of talk about the Yankees, but whats the chance they don’t make another trade here today and be happy with their bullpen and not pay the heavy price for starter? 60+%?
1:00
Travis Sawchik: I don’t see the Yankees doing something insane. (‘Stupid’ as Huntington described back in 2013 in today’s piece, possible). But I think their bid to build a super pen can also be looked at as something of a hedge if they can’t upgrade their rotation .
1:00
Travis Sawchik: It’s plausible they win the division without adding a Gray or Darvish
1:01
Jr.: Are people hesitant to trade with the Padres after the shaddy dealings of the last couple of seasons?
1:01
Travis Sawchik: I don’t know how each team would view this, but I don’t think it would preclude a deal. If, say, Hand helps your bullpen and like the offer you are still going to accept terms
1:02
Dave Cameron: Pretty sure he won’t go to the Red Sox though…
1:02
Dave Cameron: (Hi everyone)
1:02
Travis Sawchik: The main act has arrived!
1:02
Travis Sawchik: Thanks for the Qs everyone
1:02
Dave Cameron: Or the circus clown, depending on your perspective.
1:03
Dave Cameron: Thanks to Travis for holding down the first hour.
1:03
Dave Cameron: I’ll stick around for a bit until something happens that requires some writing.
1:03
Travis Sawchik: Dave, I will be available in case of emergency or a Sonny Gray trade
1:04
Dave Cameron: We’ll try to cycle some folks in here even when trades start happening, but given that there are about ~20 deals that need to happen and ~3 hours left before the deadline, we might end up in all out chaos mode again.
1:04
Dave Cameron: This everything-happens-at-once plan really is the worst.
1:04
Connor : Percentage chance Hand gets dealt today?
1:05
Dave Cameron: I’ll go 30%. There are a lot of RPs out there and this is a buyer’s market, so not totally crazy for SD to hold him until the winter.
1:05
Tj: What two teams do you think are going to make a deal today with each other because they have nothing interesting to move? Angels/Phillies?
1:06
Dave Cameron: I actually think a David Hernandez/Yusmeiro Petit combo could be kind of interesting for a contender looking for depth.
1:06
Pedro Is The Future: What are your odds on the Pirates moving a) Cutch, b) Cole, c) Harrison?
1:06
Dave Cameron: I’d bet heavily against any of them going anywhere. Deals like that don’t come together at the last minute, and there have been zero rumors of PIT marketing any of those guys.
1:07
DeeGee: Feels like a surprise team situation with sonny gray. Have a hard time believing Yanks are only team willing to part with high-level prospects for a good SP with team control
1:07
Dave Cameron: I think early asking price scared away teams like the Astros and Cubs. Not much left in way of buyers now.
1:07
Dave Cameron: This market just sucks for sellers in general.
1:07
MM: If the Yankees are balking at Florial/Mateo alone, there’s no way that Yankees/Gray deal actually goes through, right? I can’t believe that ATL or the Dodgers couldn’t beat that.
1:08
Dave Cameron: The idea that Gray would go for just one of those two and some filler does seem unbelievable.
1:08
Dave Cameron: But Braves still shouldn’t be buying and not sure LAD actually needs an SP.
1:09
James K: Guessing Jim Johnson will not find a new home?
1:09
Dave Cameron: The last two teams to trade for Jim Johnson hoping to get a bullpen upgrade were sorely disappointed. I don’t know that anyone wants to go back to that well.
1:09
JTT: Ken Rosenthal is amazing. Dude doesn’t even have a job and he’s connected enough to break trades on his own facebook page
1:10
Dave Cameron: He has two jobs. Fox still pays him to do TV work, and he works for MLB Network. Fox just stupidly decided they didn’t want to publish his written work anymore.
1:10
Bo: Seemingly slow deadline day thus far… Do you expect a trade to kick off domino effect or just a slow day?
1:11
Dave Cameron: Thought Justin Wilson moving would break things open a bit, but still slogging towards the deadline. Still think we see 10+ trades today. Too many RPs out there to not get moved.
1:11
Cheek: Why does a reliever like Melancon or Reed get such a significantly lesser return than Chapman?
1:11
Dave Cameron: The Chapman deal was an outlier.
1:11
Dave Cameron: Anyone using that as a baseline for the market is misreading player valuation.
1:12
EbenezerBatflip: What do you think of the Dombrowski trade for Reed this year compared to the Ziegler trade last year? Both seem like surprise bargains.
1:12
Dave Cameron: Like Neshek, Reed is a solid arm who didn’t cost much. I like that pickup for BOS, and both are signs of how cheap rentals are right now.
1:12
Nick: Wouldnt a Darvish for Mejia deal be absolutely crazy for a 3 month rental?
1:12
Dave Cameron: The only response to that tweet should have been “check your sources, Ralph”
1:13
Matt : Considering the Cubs’ remaining long-term SP needs, would it make ANY sense for them to swoop in on Gray talks? It’s been well established that Happ would be part of that cost.
1:13
Dave Cameron: Who you throwing out of the playoff rotation?
1:13
Dave Cameron: At some point, just adding SPs isn’t all that helpful.
1:14
Andy: Do you think that the high prices for relievers has prompted everybody to list bullpen arms are for sale… thus increasing the supply and reducing the cost for relievers in that 2nd tier?
1:14
Dave Cameron: I don’t think we’ve actually seen a high price for relievers. The Brad Hand asking prices have apparently been crazy, but everyone else has moved pretty cheaply.
1:14
Andrew: Any thoughts on whether or not the Jays will make any noise today? Shapiro and Atkins don’t seem to be rushing to make any deadline deals, perhaps waiting for the offseason
1:14
Dave Cameron: I bet Joe Smith goes.
1:15
Don: Is there a realistic package out there right now that would have been a better return for Chris Sale than what the White Sox got in the offseason?
1:15
Dave Cameron: Nope.
1:15
Hakuna Quintana: Is it wrong to support the Indians to give up McKenzie and Mejia if that’s what it takes to get Britton & Gray?
1:16
Dave Cameron: It’s never really wrong to support your team.
1:16
Dave Cameron: That said, I don’t think I’d give up that pair.
1:16
other peter: do you think samardzija gets delt? his name seemed to be floating around for a while but not so much anymore
1:16
Dave Cameron: Think he killed his market when he said he wouldn’t waive no-trade.
1:17
Nick: Any news on Tommy Joseph moving so Hoskins gets a shot?
1:17
Dave Cameron: Don’t know anyone who is in the market for a replacement level 1B.
1:17
Dave Cameron: Would guess that Phillies just give Hoskins a shot some point in August anyway, since Joseph isn’t good.
1:18
The Average Sports Fan: If Darvish is not dealt the Rangers basically get a 2nd round pick.  That seems like a easy hurdle to clear for a team to beat as a trade offer.  Candelario would be more valuable than that correct?
1:18
Dave Cameron: Well, they also get exclusive negotiating rights for the next few months.
1:18
Dave Cameron: And you retain the chance of a miracle leading the team back to a Wild Card berth.
1:19
Dave Cameron: So I don’t think you just give him away for some 40 FV guy because it’s better than a 2nd rounder.
1:19
Guest: Is it a tough market for sellers because 3 of the divisions are basically over?
1:19
Dave Cameron: Yeah, that doesn’t help. You normally would have teams like HOU, WAS, and LAD being more aggressive buyers, but they are already in the postseason, so they can be picky.
1:20
Dave Cameron: Sounds like Astros might get Liriano
1:20
Dave Cameron: Probably use him in relief
1:20
Post Malone: Is Mateo even enough of a prospect nowadays to headline a Gray deal without Florial?
1:20
Dave Cameron: I don’t think so
1:21
Adam: Dumb question: Is it possible for Team A to trade a player to Team B for a PTBNL, and after season team B trades the traded player back to TEAM A as the PTBNL?
1:21
Dave Cameron: No. A PTBNL cannot appear in the majors after the trade.
1:22
Anon: How many people are in the chat?
1:22
Dave Cameron: Jotcast says about 1,400
1:22
Dave Cameron: So if you don’t get your question answered, try to not get too mad.
1:22
PF: A blue jays blog (Blue Jays Nation) suggested that the jays might be looking to trade for Aledmys Diaz of the Cardinals? What would they have to give up? Smith and Estrada enough to get it done?
1:22
Dave Cameron: Cardinals aren’t buyers, wouldn’t be in on those guys.
1:23
Dave Cameron: Diaz does seem like a trade chip now that DeJong has taken his job though.
1:23
CamdenWarehouse: Dave, is Carson a father yet?
1:23
Dave Cameron: He is indeed.
1:23
Stephen : Would you guys consider hiring Rosenthal? He’s the class of his business and in my opinion, would take you guys from having a great site, to having the premier site in baseball.
1:23
Dave Cameron: Every baseball site on the planet would love to have Ken Rosenthal.
1:23
Dave Cameron: But we don’t have the Dodgers pocketbooks.
1:24
Matt: Why do I keep hearing LAD does not need another SP?  Do you really trust Wood/Hill/McCarthy to be not only healthy but be effective by the playoffs?
1:24
Dave Cameron: You left Maeda, who is good. Ryu is fine.
1:25
Dave Cameron: Yes, you can get three good starters out of that five.
1:25
Davor: Rangers seem to be willing to add Claudio to Darvish. Is that package worth Mejia?
1:25
Dave Cameron: Nope
1:26
Dave Cameron: Shi Davidi says Liriano to HOU pending a physical.
1:26
Dave Cameron: Deadline excitement!
1:27
David: Haven’t heard any rumors for Jose Bautista. Seems like he should be a candidate for those who lost on JD Martinez, no?
1:27
Dave Cameron: He’ll clear waivers, so he can be traded in August if anyone wants him.
1:27
Cheek: I keep hearing that the Rangers will get a 2017 draftee from the Rockies as they are not yet eligible to be traded. I thought that players had to eligible to be traded at the time of the trade to be on a PTBNL list. Also what about the Trea Turner trade?
1:27
Dave Cameron: They changed the rule after the Turner trade; 2017 draftees can’t be traded until this winter.
1:27
Dave Cameron: So it’s not a 2017 draftee.
1:28
Anon: If the A’s don’t get a package better than mateo+, wouldn’t it make more sense to deal Gray in the off season?
1:29
Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t trade Gray for a package where Mateo was the best guy, so yeah.
1:30
5 Run Homer: The return for Liriano won’t be very impressive, will it?
1:30
Dave Cameron: Salary dump, most likely.
1:30
John: Nationals in the mix for Kintzler, you think they end up with one of the better playoff bullpens?
1:30
Dave Cameron: Well I wouldn’t really want to trust Kintzler inducing groundballs to Daniel Murphy in October, but that’s just me.
1:31
A. Reitz: Are trades generally announced right away? I feel like there’s always a slew that come in in that last hour or so which makes me feel like the clubs just haven’t announced it until it’s at the deadline to maybe…prevent other clubs from dealing to counter?
1:31
Dave Cameron: You only have to tell the commissioner’s office by 4 pm, which means sometimes they don’t get out to the public until closer to 5.
1:31
Dave Cameron: So yeah, we’ll hear about some deals after the deadline passes.
1:31
Moltar: oooooo liriano to the Astros, now we’re cooking
1:31
Dave Cameron: Feels more like a simmer to me.
1:31
Dave Cameron: Maybe a poach?
1:32
Dave Cameron: Instead of the hot stove, it’s the sous vide.
1:32
Dave Cameron: Adam Rosales just got traded for the 214th time
1:32
Dave Cameron: Going to AZ since they lost Owings yesterday.
1:32
Richard: If the Astros acquire Liriano, think he might take a turn or two in the rotation to give McCullers a bit of break/ DL stint?
1:32
Dave Cameron: Definitely possible. In October, he’s your lefty specialist.
1:33
Dave Cameron: Rosenthal says HOU may be getting close on Britton.
1:34
Dave Cameron:

One source describes #Astros’ pursuit of Britton as “serious.” Executive with one of clubs involved believes deal with HOU is close.
31 Jul 2017
1:34
Tom: How many Fangraphs memberships would you have to sell to get a Rosenthal?
1:34
Dave Cameron: 18 million
1:35
A. Reitz: Maeda can’t go 5 innings and Ryu, is not fine…Yes, the Dodgers have “depth” at SP but it doesn’t mean it’s good depth and it’s not at all depth you trust if you’re one of the front runners to win the WS…
1:35
Dave Cameron: Did you watch last postseason? No starter besides the aces goes more than 5 IP in October. Ryu has a 90 ERA-, 94 xFIP-.
1:36
v2micca: If the Dodgers are really going after Darvish, how much of the move is motivated by them just trying to keep him away from other contenders?
1:36
Dave Cameron: Not much. Doesn’t seem to be a huge Darvish market right now.
1:36
Jr.: Who would you rather start in game 7 of the World Series, Davish or Gray?
1:36
Dave Cameron: Darvish.
1:37
HappyFunBall: If the Astros get Liriano, and could put him in the pen with Devenski and Peacock, why would they ever have to let a starter throw more than twice through the order? They could get hit with a rash of injuries and have to go with a “bullpen start” and be better off for it!
1:37
Dave Cameron: Seems pretty likely HOU’s playoff plan is to get innings from Keuchel and bullpen game everything else.
1:37
Dave Cameron: McCullers, Peacock, Devenski each as ~3 inning, high-K guys.
1:38
Rob: But can’t they just finalize the trade in the winter like the Padres did with Turner, or does the new rule cover that as well?
1:38
Dave Cameron: Turner deal wasn’t finalized until the next summer, which is why Turner had to play in SD’s system for half the year. New rule explicitly says 2017 draftees can’t be traded until after World Series.
1:39
Coner: Waiting for August seems like an interesting risk for some frequently reported trade targets – how frequently do teams block players with waiver claims to prevent them from going to a potential playoff rival?
1:39
Dave Cameron: The guys that would get blocked get moved in July.
1:39
Dave Cameron: No one is going to bet $60 million on Verlander just to block someone else.
1:40
jkim: How much do you trust Baez/Morrow as primary setup guys for the playoffs?
1:40
Dave Cameron: I’d probably rather have someone else in that mix, but Buehler could be that guy.
1:41
Guest: Dave, if a guy clears waivers in August, can the team trading him can still kick in cash right?  probably a dumb question, because otherwise, seems like they couldn’t trade him.
1:41
Dave Cameron: Yes, you can still pay down a player’s salary in August.
1:42
Shawn: Think Britton closes in Houston? Or still Giles?
1:43
Dave Cameron: Probably Britton if he can prove he’s healthy. You don’t want to use him for multi-inning situations given his arm issues, so Giles fits better in the 7th/8th role where he can come in and stay through the next inning.
1:43
A. Reitz: Ohhh, Houston going to part w/ Fisher and Martes for Britton? Feels risky if he’s hurt.
1:43
Dave Cameron: Fisher maybe, Martes no.
1:44
Erik: How much of the return for Wilson was actually the return for Avila? Candelario + Paredes seems roughly in line with Wilson’s value all by himself, which makes Avila look like basically a throw-in. Could the Tigers have gotten more by moving him separately?
1:45
Dave Cameron: Don’t think there was a big market for Avila. Not a good defender behind the plate, not many teams looking for 1B/DH types.
1:45
Gavin: How much of the buyer’s market is teams being more reserved, and how much of it is the QO changes?
1:46
Dave Cameron: QO changes have increased supply of guys at lower prices, but think it’s mostly just a weird year where the good teams aren’t buying and the wild card contenders aren’t very good.
1:46
Jerry: Is Verlander’s contract really that crazy? What would he get as a free agent this winter?
1:47
Dave Cameron: Yeah, it’s something like double his market value.
1:47
Dave Cameron: On a two year deal, I’d bet he’d get $30-$35M this winter.
1:47
Gavin: The Dodgers are projected for 109 wins and I’m going to be upset if they don’t get better. This is the definition of greed.
1:48
Scrips: How much would have to be added to a package headlined by Calhoun for you to trade Darvish?
1:48
Dave Cameron: Don’t think Calhoun is Texas’ kind of player.
1:48
Bo: Do *all* players involved in a post-7/31 waiver deal have to have cleared waivers?
1:48
Dave Cameron: Only guys on the 40 man.
1:49
Erik: Are you saying McCullers should be in the pen in October?
1:49
Dave Cameron: I think the Astros will have very loose definitions of starters and relievers in October.
1:49
Dave Cameron: Maybe McCullers pitches innings 1-3 or 1-4, but none of these guys are going to be asked to go deep besides Keuchel.
1:49
The Mooch: Kyle Hendricks has 91 xFIP- too, so that’s good right?
1:50
Dave Cameron: Yeah, the guy who finished second in the Cy Young award voting last year sucks. Good call!
1:51
Dave Cameron: Nori Aoki is going to TOR in the Liriano trade.
1:51
Dave Cameron: Interesting. Maybe to clear a roster spot for Fisher?
1:52
Anon: Do the Yankees get a true 1B?
1:52
Dave Cameron: Talk is Bird might be back in a few weeks, so I’m guessing no.
1:52
Tom: What in your mind is a fair deal in the Yankees-A’s trade?
1:54
Dave Cameron: Two of Adams/Florial/Mateo, plus some lottery ticket guys.
1:54
Ben: Could the Dodgers use a 2-headed 4th starter in the playoffs? Start Maeda with Ryu behind him. Maeda/Ryu could combine to get through the order 3 times without facing the TTO penalty.
1:54
Dave Cameron: Yep. The back-end starters just don’t need to pitch more than a few innings in October.
1:55
Josiah: If you were Andrew Friedman, would you be willing to give up any of vertigo/alvarez/buehler for the guys (Britton, gray, darvish etc) who are available?
1:55
Dave Cameron: No
1:56
Dave Cameron: Though if Verdugo has vertigo maybe I’d sell high.
1:56
Dave Cameron: Actually, just realized I mis-read the question. I’d happily give up Alvarez for Gray. I thought you were packaging those guys.
1:57
Dave Cameron:

#Rangers have traded Jeremy Jeffress to the #Brewers
31 Jul 2017
1:57
Dave Cameron: Brewers get Jeffress back, probably for almost nothing.
1:58
Nikos: Who are some of the most successful “lottery ticket” guys that have been included in deals?
1:58
Dave Cameron: The Mariners got David Ortiz back when he was David Arias and a low-A upside guy.
1:59
Boomer: The Rockies trades for Neshek and Lucroy…beneficial for them without giving away the farm, right???
1:59
Dave Cameron: Yeah, I like their moves here.
1:59
Dave Cameron: Neshek especially.
2:00
Blue: Instead of Verdugo/Buehler, would it make sense for the Dodgers to look at giving up ML guys (Stripling, Ryu) for Darvish or Gray? Would the A’s/Rangers want that?
2:00
Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be shocked if Ryu was in a Darvish deal.
2:01
Babe Lincoln: Thoughts on the Mets’ trade for AJ Ramos?
2:01
Dave Cameron: Perfectly fine. He’s an okay reliever and brought an okay return.
2:01
Trent: Off topic, but curious to hear your opinion: how many years on the ballot does it take Beltre to make the HOF?
2:01
Dave Cameron: 1
2:01
Dave Cameron: 3,000 hits gets him the old-timers vote, all the other stuff gets him the nerd votes
2:02
Dave Cameron: Alright, Paul Swydan is going to come take over for a bit.
2:02
Dave Cameron: Thanks for the questions, everyone.
2:02
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!
2:02
Dave Cameron: Feel free to ask him why I’m such an idiot.
2:03
Paul Swydan: Haha, yes, of the two of us, I definitely wouldn’t be the idiot.
2:03
Ned Yost: We want Dave back.
2:03
Paul Swydan: Fair! But you’re stuck with me, so…
2:03
Paul Swydan: http://imgur.com/6IGDHJo
2:04
This is lude-icris: Give us the idiot!
2:04
Paul Swydan: That’s more like it.
2:04
Nelson: JD Martinez looking at something like 3/60 next year?
2:04
Paul Swydan: Nelson, try to focus, this is the trade *deadline* chat. Martinez was dealt two weeks ago!
2:05
Paul Swydan: But, I think he’ll be able to command more in terms of both money and years than that.
2:05
Paul Swydan: Maybe like 5/140.
2:05
Paul Swydan: or, 5/120
2:05
Tommy: Will the Brewers make anymore moves for a starter potentially?
2:05
Paul Swydan: Unless it’s a rental who comes cheap, I can’t see it.
2:05
Paul Swydan: Talks of them jumping in on Gray/Darvish seem to have subsided.
2:06
Colonel Dingus: Which contender most needs to make a trade right now?
2:06
Paul Swydan: The Red Sox currently have no good fifth starter and no good catcher, so they certainly spring to mind.
2:06
Sean: I actually want the prolific Travis Sawchik back
2:06
Paul Swydan: I bet you want a back rub too.
2:06
Phil: But The Red Sox are probably not going to do much… what is Paul going to talk about?
2:07
Paul Swydan: I don’t know, you people are going to have to feed me some softball questions here!
2:07
BringInDaFunk BringInDaNiese: Taking a step back from the deadline mania, how would you rate the Padres’ rebuilding effort so far?
2:07
Paul Swydan: Poorly.
2:07
Dan: Mike Trout to whom? and for what?
2:07
Paul Swydan: According to Brisbee, for Joe Panik.
2:07
Yu: Does Darvish get dealt?
2:08
Paul Swydan: Boy, if the deal Lucroy and not Darvish, they better be damned sure they’re re-signing Darvish AND signing Otani this offseason, otherwise they’re going to look very foolish.
2:08
Kevin: Freddie Freeman to the Astros. You heard it here first.
2:08
Paul Swydan: Good take, Kevin. Love it. Keep ’em coming.
2:08
TKDC: Why on Earth is Brandon Phillips still a Brave?
2:09
Paul Swydan: Does he still have a no-trade clause in his contract even after his trade to Atlanta? Or was his no-trade a 10/5 thing? If the former, that’d be my guess.
2:09
Scott: Why are corner hitter so cheap right now? It wasn’t long ago those guys were returning perfectly hefty returns (jay bruce, justin upton come to mind)
2:09
Paul Swydan: Because lots of teams have corner players for sale, and players you mention like Bruce and Upton may get traded in August, reducing the urgency of acquiring them today.
2:09
Dave Cameronaunepetitegraine: Can the yankees just give the Nats 400,000,000$ and get Bryce Harper now?
2:10
Paul Swydan: Not sure how that would work, exactly, since they’d ALSO have to give Bryce Harper an additional $400M.
2:10
Gus: Why don’t more Liriano type pitchers seem to move at the deadline? Cheap potentially good bullpen innings, right?
2:11
Paul Swydan: Because most teams would rather just hang on to their guys than take back a lesser return. Luckily for Toronto, their LF has been so bad that Aoki might actually be an upgrade.
2:11
Nikos: Should the yanks trade Jaime Garcia before the deadline and make him feel like he makes a very bad first impression?
2:11
Paul Swydan: I would love to see that.
2:11
Trent: What happens to Zack Cozart.  He likely won’t be traded, so do you see an extension or a FA deal in his future?  And would something like 3/50 be about right?
2:11
Paul Swydan: Yes, that does sound about right. Maybe a little high on the dollars, but in that ballpark. I wouldn’t be surprised if he stayed in Cincy. Peraza and Alcantara aren’t really blowing anyone away.
2:11
Brian Cashmon: Hey Paul, I calculated surplus value for Sonny Gray and I only got about $58 million. Yes, this is more valuable when placed on the fun part on the win cycle, but Quintana was worth $100 million. Gray is not as long term as people think because his arb salaries might be highish.
2:12
Paul Swydan: Yes, I think that’s fair. I don’t think that in our corner of the internet anyone is arguing that Gray is more valuable than Quintana.
2:12
___: I am a 28-year old former high school CFer who is in passable shape (no beer gut yet).  When Mike Trout is ___ years old, he will be as good/bad at baseball as I am now.
2:12
Paul Swydan: 49?
2:12
Paul Swydan: Probably not even.
2:13
Paul Swydan: Not to be a dick or anything. Mike Trout is just really, really good.
2:13
Tommy: Even for someone like Strailey?
2:14
Paul Swydan: I would think especially with Straily. He hasn’t even reached arbitration yet, so he has 3-4 controllable years left, and given his track record, he probably won’t earn as much as he should in arb.
2:14
Mr. Generic: What’s the thinking behind acquiring Aoki for Liriano?
2:14
Paul Swydan: Probably that’s all they could get. But also Toronto’s LF is bad, and Aoki is under contract for next year. In other words, don’t expect Toronto to spend a ton of money this winter. Not like they’re in one of baseball’s biggest markets or anything.
2:15
Dan: Where’s august??
2:15
Paul Swydan: The month? It’s right on our doorstep!
2:15
Paul Swydan: The former FG employee?

Excited to finally publicly announce my position as a baseball operations analyst with the Milwaukee Brewers. No longer a man of mystery.
4 May 2017
2:16
Kevin: How many tabs do you have open?
2:16
Paul Swydan: Right now, just 7. I try to streamline when I’m chatting so I can answer questions as quickly as possible. But earlier, like, 20?
2:16
Jr.: Paul, the Red Sox need a hitter more than pitching or a catcher, though right?
2:17
Paul Swydan: Well, a catcher who can hit should be the priority. Vazquez and Leon are pretty good at the catching part of catching, they just can’t hit worth a damn.
2:17
Paul Swydan: I am constantly perplexed that we hear NOTHING about them trying to upgrade at catcher.
2:17
Paul Swydan: Most likely the deal isn’t there, but there’s not even any chatter about it.
2:17
Boomer: Do the Rockies make anymore moves?  Or do they stand pat, see where this season unfolds and then have the team to compete in 2018 and 2019???
2:18
Paul Swydan: I think they should hold, wait to see what happens with Dahl and CarGo, and possibly make a play for a corner bat in August if need be.
2:18
Korey Cluber: Why aren’t the Jays moving their players? They have starters and hitters they could be getting pieces back for, no?
2:18
Paul Swydan: As I detailed a couple of weeks ago, there just isn’t much of a market for the players they have who will be free agents at the end of the season.
2:18
Zach Britton: Are the Orioles getting 2 top 100 prospects for me?
2:18
Paul Swydan: I sincerely doubt it.
2:18
Anon: Fearless prediction time:  The 2020 world series champion winners are _______.
2:19
Paul Swydan: FOCUS ON THE NOW.
2:19
Paul Swydan: Fine – Dbacks.
2:19
Tyler: The Red Sox need a catcher who can hit, and the Giants need to rebuild.  It would never happen, but what would a Boston prospect package for Posey look like?
2:19
Paul Swydan: Sox don’t have enough ammo left in the system for that.
2:19
Paul Swydan: Posey IS the San Francisco Giants. You’d have to overpay by a significant margin in order for the Giants to sell it to their fans.
2:20
CamdenWarehouse: Red Sox can have Beef for pretty cheap
2:20
Paul Swydan: Now I just need to know who Beef is. Wellington Castillo?
2:20
Chris S: With 1500 people in chat each asking roughly 2 questions and a response time of 30 seconds, answering everybody would take an easy 25 hours… in case people are upset about their question not being answered.
2:20
Paul Swydan: There’s actually 1,692 people in here right now. And I love every single one of you.
2:20
CB: What do you do if you’re the Cardinals? I say sell, sell, sell.
2:21
Paul Swydan: I mean, their only impending free agents are Lynn – who they are trying to deal – and Duke, who literally just came back from Tommy John.
2:22
Paul Swydan: Looking to players who are FA after ’18 – no one wants Wainwright, Rosenthal is already expensive, … and that’s basically it.
2:22
Paul Swydan: They don’t really have an opportunity for a traditional sell-off.
2:22
Kruser: Deadline, draft day or winter meetings is the most hectic for FG?
2:23
Paul Swydan: Oh, deadline day for sure.
2:23
Paul Swydan: Draft day and winter meetings, we tend to have a much better sense of what’s going to happen, based on our industry connections.
2:23
Paul Swydan: But at the deadline, things are frenzied, and people don’t have the time to talk or actively won’t talk because they don’t want to give away leverage.
2:23
Beastin 25/8: Machado get dealt in the offseason?
2:24
Paul Swydan: The Orioles looked like a team who should have been rebuilding back when they hired Duquette. Since then, he’s worked his Duquette Magic to keep them in the hunt every year. This year, the pitching fell apart at the same time Machado had a slow start, and that sort of doomed them, but I expect Duquette to fire it up again next year.
2:25
Paul Swydan: Angelos has never really liked rebuilding.
2:25
Bo: So the Sox are going to stick with Devers it appears? Smart move?
2:25
Paul Swydan: So far, it does. And yes, I think it’s the right move. He is a special talent, and he doesn’t seem fazed by big league pitching at all so far.
2:25
John: Leaving out the Red Sox, what team would you most like to see go on a Yankee-like dynastic run in the next ten years?
2:26
Paul Swydan: Well, you have to say besides the Red Sox and the Rockies. I worked for the Rockies for seven years, and my heart still pumps purple. Aside from those two teams, probably the Dbacks or the Astros or the Twins. A team in the middle of the country/is often ignored nationally.
2:27
Josh Donaldson: Hey Paul fan of the site,love your articles on baseball.May i ask when will i be traded.
2:27
Paul Swydan: Not before the winter.
2:27
BringInDaFunk BringInDaNiese: Where’s Matt Klaassen?
2:28
Paul Swydan: Matt is now in mothballs. He’ll be activated when the politicians and cyborgs have wiped out all the millenial analysts. He will be there for us in our time of need.
2:28
Anon: The Red Sox are gonna crash hard in 2-3 years.
2:29
Paul Swydan: Well, that all depends on how much money they want to spend to keep Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley around. I think it’s safe to say that they won’t retain all three, at which point, yes, the team will quite likely find itself on hard times.
2:29
Guest: Jumbo Diaz….. exciting move
2:30
Paul Swydan: Hey, Guest, that wasn’t a trade. FOCUS PEOPLE!
2:30
Jeb: Can we talk about next year’s trade deadline? Otani + Stanton for Rendon + Harper?
2:30
Paul Swydan: I like your optimism Jeb.
2:30
Paul Swydan: Pretty sure Otani will have a lot of no-trade protection. If the dude is really going to sacrifice $100+ million to come to the States early, the least he can do is get to have a say over where he plays.
2:31
BringInDaFunk BringInDaNiese: Love seems a little strong
2:31
Paul Swydan: Yeah, well, it’s true. Without you people I’d have to get a real job, and I’d have to put my kids in daycare. I’m a very lucky guy.
2:31
Miky: So Teoscar Hernandez going to Toronto. Isn’t he, like, better than Aoki right now?
2:32
Paul Swydan: Not by the projections, but if memory serves, he’s not a guy who is easy to pin down by projections.
2:32
West Coast Wreck: Do the Redsox have enough left to pry Flowers front eh Braves.  1 more year of control after this one.
2:32
Paul Swydan: Yes, definitely, though the Braves seem happy to keep him.
2:32
davels: I’d think the Phillies would be interested in moving Cameron Rupp to the Red Sox for… ?  low level lottery players?
2:33
Paul Swydan: I’m not sure Rupp is enough of an upgrade to make a fuss about. But yes, low-level prospects.
2:33
Moltar: What do you think of the Mets targeting so many relief prospects? Just the best they could do, or a conscious decision considering the rising cost of relievers?
2:34
Paul Swydan: The Mets had to take what they were given because they were too cheap to pay for Reed’s contract. I think that all of the players played the same position because they essentially got 3 lottery tickets. If one pays off, then score. Makes sense to have them at the same position.
2:34
Eminor3rd: Any team (buyer or seller) that you think is botching the deadline season currently?
2:34
Paul Swydan: I haven’t stepped back enough to decide this yet, sorry.
2:34
Anon: Who polishes the marble lobby at Fangraphs HQ?
2:35
Paul Swydan: As if. If we had an HQ, I’d rather have a nacho fountain in the break room than a marble lobby.
2:35
Jerry DiPoto: Wow, Teoscar Hernandez was included in that Liriano deal. That seems like a very steep price for the Astros to pay for Liriano. Teoscar can be a legit decent  MLB outfielder
2:36
Paul Swydan: I mean, Hernandez might be good, but he’s a 24-year-old outfielder who is hitting worse in his second stint at Triple-A. Let’s not get too carried away.
2:36
John: I’ve seen nothing on Jhouyls Chacin. He’s put up great numbers the last two months, surprised I haven’t even seen a mention on him today.  Very similar numbers to Jaime Garcia, but yes he’s not a lefty.
2:37
Paul Swydan: Chacin has even less of a consistent track record than Garcia, and has also had his share of medical issues. Not surprised there are no rumors on him.
2:37
Bo: Braves ought to be selling anything not bolted down… Right?
2:38
Paul Swydan: I think so, but they also have tickets in a new ballpark to sell, and the football team just went to the Super Bowl. If they sell off everything now, well, training camp is already open and tickets for *that* are also on sale. So, I get it.
2:38
HappyFunBall: If FG were a real outfit, you’d have a nacho fountain in the break room, and the break room would have a marble floor.
2:38
Paul Swydan: That’d be the day.
2:38
CamdenWarehouse: Does Carson cook the nachos?
2:38
Paul Swydan: Please no.
2:38
Anon: I was loiking at prospect busts the other day and a disproportionate number of them were 3B prospects. Could it be that players who can’t really defend enough for tge middle infield positions or mash enough for the corners get stuck there?  Maybe someone wants to look at that for an article idea.
2:39
Paul Swydan: I think the bottom line is that because it’s in the middle of the defensive spectrum, you have to both hit well AND field well to stay there long-term, and it’s honestly not a skill set that a lot of players have, which thereby leads to more busts.
2:39
Kosch: Legit Decent is an oxymoron.   Stros have Springer / Reddick / Fisher (who is better than Teoscar) and Marisnick as the supersub defensive replacement
2:40
Paul Swydan: Right, Hernandez was obviously not cracking that OF.
2:40
Pine Marten: You play OOTP? Seems like a day to mess with fictional trade scenarios if there ever was one.
2:40
Paul Swydan: I don’t. I used to play Scoresheet, but that’s not the same thing.
2:40
Babe Lincoln: Why do you assume the Mets were too cheap to pay for Reed’s contract?  Just because they didn’t do so?  There’s a report that the Sox actually preferred to pay Reed themselves and lower the prospect cost (https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/mets-to-trade-addison-reed-to-red-sox-for… to fight that if you’re the Mets, no?
2:40
Paul Swydan: Really, the TV station that the Mets own says that the Red Sox really wanted to pay for Reed’s salary? There’s a shocker.
2:41
Paul Swydan: Actions speak louder than words. The Mets were already on the hook for his salary. If they wanted to pay for it, they would have.
2:41
Paul Swydan: Other teams besides Boston wanted Reed.
2:41
Sad Giants fan: Can you provide any hope for this sad Giants fan?
2:41
Paul Swydan: You get to watch one of the best catchers of all-time on a regular basis?
2:41
toki: So Eno is running the bar?
2:42
Paul Swydan: Only the beer part of the bar. Carson or someone else would do the mixed drinks.
2:42
Blue: A lot of teams seem hesitant to make otherwise beneficial trades because their fans demand they “win” them. Would we see a lot more trades if there weren’t thousands of us watching and waiting to criticize every detail of every move?
2:43
Paul Swydan: No, I don’t think that’s it. I think teams are now hesitant to make trades because of the cost of trading for a rental for the possibility of having only one more game — the Wild Card Game.
2:43
A. Reitz: This trade deadline stinks and I know there’s all the hooplah about “X” team doesn’t need “Y” player but, teams go for it every year. Something seems off about this one.
2:43
Paul Swydan: Just a down year. Lot of races are already decided.
2:44
USA: The Mooch is out, does he clear waivers?
2:44
Paul Swydan: This is the second time someone said that, and it looks like it’s true. Not that I want to bog us down in politics, but WOW, that was fast.
2:44
Well-Beered Englishman: *provides the beer*
2:44
Theo: If you were given total control over the O’s, what would you do?
2:46
Paul Swydan: I would have Manny Machado and his family out to my vacation home for the weekend, and have a heart-to-heart with him about his long-term plans. If he is dead set on going to free agency, I’d thank him for his loyal service to the organization and let him know that we’re going to trade him and start our rebuild.
2:46
Paul Swydan: But if he wants to stay, I’d sign him, dig in, and figure out how to stay competitive.
2:46
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Who at Fangraphs is most likely to order something with kale?
2:46
Paul Swydan: Eno? I dunno, I like kale.
2:46
toki: Which member of the Fangraphs team has the best signature mixed drink?
2:46
Paul Swydan: We usually just drink beer. You won’t believe this, but Eno is very influential in that regard.
2:46
Boomer: Do the Rockies waive/trade CarGo in August???
2:47
Paul Swydan: I don’t see them waiving him.
2:47
The Mooch?: Who’s The Mooch?
2:47
Paul Swydan: Utility infielder for the Las Vegas 51s.
2:47
LegallyEagle: Outside of Schwarber, is there anything the Cubs could realistically package to win a bidding war for Gray?
2:47
Paul Swydan: Probably plenty, yeah. The A’s window is like 2019, 2020, at the earliest.
2:48
toki: Which team sends the highest percentage of their roster through revocable waivers after the deadline?
2:48
Paul Swydan: The Mets?
2:48
Paul Swydan: The Tigers?
2:49
Abie H: For how long do you predict the Yankees window will open and stay open?
2:49
Paul Swydan: Few years at least.
2:50
John: Is Clint Frazier a viable part of the Yankees’ future?
2:50
Paul Swydan: Yes.
2:51
Abie H: Why did the Phillies rebuild *fail*? Poor scouting, poor player development, or just pure bad luck?
2:51
Paul Swydan: I think it’s more bad luck / many of the players they were rebuilding around were/are pitchers, and they are inherently more volatile.
2:51
Paul Swydan: Obviously the process around trades like the Ken Giles trade was spot on. It just hasn’t worked out that well yet.
2:51
fedde: Fedde for Gray. Thoughts?
2:52
Paul Swydan: Is this a thing? I don’t see this.
2:53
Paul Swydan: If so, seems a little light.
2:53
Beastin 25/8: Dave Cameron for PFT Commenter, who hangs up?  What if Barstool asks you to cover Big Cat’s Buffalo Wild Wings bills for six months?
2:53
Paul Swydan: I honestly don’t read Barstool and only know of who those two people are because they get RT’d into my timeline sometimes.
2:54
Denji: Regardless of Machado’s intentions, the Orioles are going nowhere without signing international players. They just traded more pool money for the Yankees #40-something prospect
2:54
Paul Swydan: Yes, I saw that. But the O’s also need a better farm system, and getting prospects is a good way to help that.
2:55
FreehanSolo: Which Tigers could get claimed in August and be realistic trade candidates (or just outright let go)?
2:55
Paul Swydan: I don’t know that anyone is going to claim their players, but Verlander and Upton should clear waivers and then be able to be traded to any team.
2:55
Carl: Are GMs aware of their FG calculated Playoff odds?
2:55
Paul Swydan: One would assume that they are. Or that they have their own system.
2:56
Andy: Does Lynn get moved today?
2:56
Paul Swydan: I would move him today. But if they don’t…
2:56
Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolgraphs.aspx?lg=NL&div=A&stat=wc
2:56
Paul Swydan: Look, does it look like Arizona and Colorado are going to take the Wild Card slots? Yes. But if they don’t, St. Louis is still best positioned to swoop in.
2:57
Paul Swydan: And they’ve swooped in before.
2:57
CamdenWarehouse: Aren’t they more likely to get good prospects by using the international money than by trading it for someone a team doesn’t want?
2:57
Paul Swydan: Yes, but consider the window of those international prospects. Generally, you’re signing 16-18 year olds, who won’t be able to contribute at the major league level until the year 20-after Dan Duquette’s contract expires.
2:58
Chris S:

#Twins are in the “red zone” on a Brandon Kintzler trade. #Nationals are the most speculated-upon team, but not sure if it’s them.
31 Jul 2017
2:58
Paul Swydan: Jerry, come on. No football metaphors. Bottom of the 8th, let’s say.
2:58
Korey Cluber: Is Lynn even a good pitcher? He’s giving up homers like crazy and has a BABIP of .220 and has a FIP in the high 4b
2:59
Paul Swydan: Lynn has been a good pitcher at times in the past, and as a rental, that should be all that he needs to attract interest.
2:59
Jack Curry: Gray to the Yankees
2:59
Paul Swydan: Finally!
3:00
Michael: gray to yanks official
3:00
Paul Swydan: Give me the full deal if you see it before me.
3:00
Andy: Why was HanRam not considered for the 3B slot until Devers was ready?  JDM cost pennies, and HanRam was a SS only 3 years ago.  Seems like trading for a cheap corner type would have been the better play.
3:01
Paul Swydan: Ramirez hasn’t played 3B since 2012, and SS since 2014. His shoulder apparently hurts so badly right now that he is refusing to play *first* base.
3:01
confused: In “Red Zone” implies a score is near.  Bottom of 8th means game is almost over.  How are those similar?
3:01
Paul Swydan: Because SHUT UP, that’s why!
3:01
Forrest: Gray to Yankees done. Fowler, Mateo, Kaprelian coming back
3:01
Paul Swydan: Ok, hold on.
3:02
Paul Swydan: Wow, 4, 6, and 7 on Eric’s preseason list.
3:02
Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-33-prospects-new-york-yankees/
3:03
Paul Swydan: Fowler (knee) and Kaprelian (TJ) are both out, which makes the deal easier for the Yankees to swallow.
3:04
Paul Swydan: And Torres had usurped the “shortstop of the future” position from Mateo.
3:04
Paul Swydan: So, you can see the Yankees’ rationale, but that could end being a very good deal for the A’s.
3:04
Paul Swydan: Let’s put it to a poll.
3:04
Paul Swydan:

Who got the better end of the Sonny Gray trade?
A’s (32.8% | 254 votes)
 
Yankees (41.6% | 322 votes)
 
I can’t decide! (25.4% | 197 votes)
 
Total Votes: 773
3:04
Uncle Rico: Red Sox in trouble now the Yanks have Gray?
3:05
Paul Swydan: The Red Sox were already in trouble. The Yankees are poised to win now and later, and the Red Sox might not be poised to win at either time.
3:05
Paul Swydan: Gray is not a rental, don’t forget.
3:05
Lama, big hitter: According to MLB tr, Gray has been sent to the Yanks for a camera
3:05
Paul Swydan: They got a camera too!
3:06
Andy: I’d just like to be clear that I am NOT the Andy who suggested playing Hanley friggin’ Ramirez at third base.
3:06
Paul Swydan: Noted!
3:06
Andy: Thank you honestly for the HanRam answer.  I hadn’t any idea.  you’re my hero.
3:06
Paul Swydan: Andy’s out in full force.
3:06
Todd: What should I be watching right now? MLBN or ESPN? Or is there something better?
3:06
Paul Swydan: FanGraphs is better. Resist the temptation to pivot to video.
3:07
Paul Swydan: If you need video, pull up an episode of “Archer” on Netflix while we chat.
3:07
HappyFunBall: The Twitter is full of football metaphors today. Every close trade is “on the goal line”, waiting for medicals to clear. #KillMeNow
3:07
Paul Swydan: Pretty downbeat for a person named HappyFunBall.
3:07
Gina: isn’t fowler’s injury pretty difficult to come back from though. Seems like a weird guy to take back.
3:07
Paul Swydan: Well he had a lot of industry buzz before the injury. It’s a worthy gamble I think.
3:08
seth: Alonso staying in Oakland now?
3:08
Paul Swydan: Maybe Dave Dombrowski will be roused from his slumber long enough to realize that Mitch Moreland sucks.
3:08
Paul Swydan: I don’t know though, it IS nap time….
3:08
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Kind of a bummer if you are Dustin Fowler and never get to suit up for the Yankees again, right?
3:09
Paul Swydan: Well, he might get another chance. After all, not like the A’s will try to retain him if he plays long enough to reach free agency.
3:09
Randy: Gray return seem light (especially given the injury issues)? Hard to believe no other team could top that offer.
3:10
Paul Swydan: No, I don’t think it’s light. It’s only light if both of the injured young men don’t recover from their injuries.
3:10
E: I don’t think bottom of the 8th is the right cross reference, being in the ‘red zone’ means like being in the scoring zone. I think the baseball equivalent would be like a leadoff double maybe, or runner on third, no outs.

Or we could just say the deal is all but done.
3:10
Paul Swydan: These are better suggestions, yes.
3:10
Andy: RedSox in trouble?!  But they have Joe Kelly!
3:10
Paul Swydan: He has great stuff!
3:10
CamdenWarehouse: The Red Sox need to respond by getting Machado
3:10
Paul Swydan: Why would that be the appropriate response? They’re finally all set at third base!
3:11
Tim: Darvish to Dodgers now that Gray has been shipped?
3:11
Paul Swydan: I still don’t see why the Dodgers need Darvish.
3:11
Blue Jays: I love watching the poll results move as people vote….
3:11
Paul Swydan: Me too!
3:11
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: I think the trade is a win-win.  A’s get cost controlled highly ranked players, Yanks get a cost controlled starter for the next two years.  Both teams are happy, I’m happy, love you too Paul!
3:11
Paul Swydan: Everyone’s happy. Except Red Sox and Rays fans, I guess.
3:11
Josiah: Is Gray a bigger name than he is a talent at this point?
3:12
Paul Swydan: I think Billy Beane did a very good job marketing his most marketable player, if that’s what you’re getting at.
3:12
Dylan: So why did the cubs have to give up the #5 prospect (Eloy) to land Quintana when the Yankees get away with giving up 3 less heralded prospects?
3:12
Paul Swydan: Because people constantly underestimate how good Brian Cashman is at his job?
3:12
Paul Swydan: No, wait, that’s not right.
3:12
Paul Swydan: Well, maybe it is.
3:12
Paul Swydan: I think the Cubs have shown they will just cut to the chase to get the guy they want.
3:13
Paul Swydan: These days, that sort of strategy tends to stick out.
3:13
HeeHaw: I work in marketing analytics. I have a degree and economics and 4 years of experience utilizing statistical techniques a couple programming languages.  What are the odds of someone who hasn’t worked a day in his life for baseball operations to get a job without industry connections. I imagine it’s worse than my odds to actually make a major league roster.
3:13
Paul Swydan: These days, a lot better than it used to be. If you can show that you can show that you have programming skills and are willing to work for what MLB teams pay, you have a decent shot even without connections.
3:14
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Yankees get int’l money in the Gray deal as well.
3:14
Paul Swydan: Yanks making sure they have the money to buy prospects for the future.
3:14
Paul Swydan: Because Brian Cashman is very good at his job.
3:14
Phil: Yankees are getting $1.5M million in international bonus pool money. I am not familiar with this pool; does each team have a limit?
3:14
Paul Swydan: Yes.
3:14
Joe: So a dude who just had had his knee explode from under him, a dude who just got Tommy John surgery, and a SS that was blocked by Gleyber Torres for 2.5 years of Sonny Gray. What a steal.
3:15
Paul Swydan: Well, Mateo is still very good. He is rocking a 147 wRC+ in Double-A as a 22-year-old. That’s a pretty damn good player.
3:15
xmx: +1 For Archer, Paul
3:15
Gus: Archer?
3:15
Uncle Rico: Dealer Dave Swoop in Darvish last minute?  Groome and Chavis get it done?
3:16
Paul Swydan: Gag. That’d be way too much for 2-3 months of Darvish.
3:16
LegallyEagle: Has Fangraphs considered video (not just audio) content?
3:17
Paul Swydan: I have tried to get video started in the past. It just hasn’t come together. Not only is it tough to find people who are adept at both creating professional videos AND FanGraphs speak, but we are also hamstrung by the fact that we can’t legally show highlight clips. Third, creating video is expensive and we’re not going to fire our writers just to create video content. Finally, the demand being there is likely questionable.
3:17
Steph Nuggs: Red Sox not poised to win now or later? Are you that down on the offense?
3:18
Paul Swydan: I don’t think the offense is *this* bad, but I can’t see how the Sox beat the Astros in a 7-game series, and I think the Yankees probably have an edge in a best of 7 now as well.
3:18
Paul Swydan: Obviously anything can happen in October, but it seems to me that Boston’s stock has dropped in the last week or so.
3:18
Rex Manning Day: Gray trade seems pretty even to me. Fowler and Mateo are both somewhat blocked, and trading a high-A pitcher for a starter now seems pretty reasonable. Good return for A’s, but not too painful to pay for NYY
3:19
Paul Swydan: I think this is where I’m landing as well.
3:20
Chris: Yanks got intl money in Gray deal, plus intl money from Orioles. Stars aligning for Otani in the Bronx?
3:20
Paul Swydan: I guess we’ll see.
3:20
Marcus Banks: I wanted Gray but am disappointed to see Fowler go.  Really wanted him to come back strong in a yankee uni after what happened to him
3:21
Paul Swydan: Yeah, that was definitely a sad story. But the bottom line is that the Yankees already have a crowded OF, and his best chance at legit playing time in the next year is in Oakland.
3:21
Uncle Rico: Looks like not signing EE in the offseaon is biting the Red Sox in the bum bum.  He would be leading the team in almost every offensive category….
3:21
Travis Sawchik: Paul, I am ready to take the baton
3:21
Paul Swydan: Yeah, that would have been nice. It’d be easier to swallow not signing E5 if they had made any headway on an extension for Betts, Bogaerts or Bradley. But here we are and they have done none of those things.
3:22
Paul Swydan: OK, you are all in good hands with Travis!
3:22
Paul Swydan: Talk to you later!!!
3:22
Travis Sawchik: Not sure about that!
3:22
Adam: Are we well past the “kicking the tires” stage of trade chatter?
3:22
Travis Sawchik: Ha. Quite possibly we are beyond that
3:22
That Guy: Seems like a case where the A’s got a good potential haul but it still feels like the Yankees made out like bandits.
3:23
Travis Sawchik: I like it for both clubs. But I like it from the Yankees’ perspective a little bit more as they kept their top young assets, and now have improved their  division and postseason odds
3:25
spza: NYY fan here. can someone explain why this isn’t a steal for yanks? 2/3 of this return has potentially career ending injuries
3:26
Travis Sawchik: Cashman has done very well at the last two deadlines
3:27
Travis Sawchik: To get Gray without surrendering a top 50 overall prospect in the game is solid work
3:28
Erik: Given the injuries for Kaprielian and Fowler, there has to be a decent chance that the deal gets cancelled after the A’s find something they don’t like in their physicals, right? Or does that only happen for the Orioles?
3:28
Travis Sawchik: Is this like buying a house? If the injuries are disclosed and you still hit ‘accept’ its yours?
3:28
Travis Sawchik: A’s take on a ton of risk but upside, too
3:29
Travis Sawchik: I guess I’m a little surprised there wasn’t a better deal out there
3:29
LeBron: Thoughts on the tribe and joe smith?
3:30
Travis Sawchik: I thought the Indians needed another bullpen piece and Smith is striking out 35% of batters. For me, he’s a better No. 3 than Shaw, he’s an upgrade
3:30
Travis Sawchik: I haven’t seen the cost yet, though
3:30
New Bork: Lets not forget that Sonny Gray has an extensive history of no being healthy. Maybe there just wasn’t that much more out there.
3:30
Travis Sawchik: Apparently there was not an overwhelming market
3:30
Travis Sawchik: The Yankees got more back for two relief pitchers, and one was a rental, last season
3:31
Sean: I told Paul I wanted you in the chat. He replied with “I bet you want a back rub too.” Does this mean you’re supposed to give me a back rub?
3:31
Travis Sawchik: Not included, sorry
3:31
Al Avila: Just so you know, Travis, I am going to trade Iglesias to Arizona
3:31
Travis Sawchik: How could you trade your OWN son?
3:32
Travis Sawchik: Was Alex Avila a first born son?
3:32
Joe: Alex Avila was the first born!
3:32
Travis Sawchik: Incredible. Ha.
3:32
Fly Birds Fly: Pirates should be unloading
3:33
Travis Sawchik: I’d be trying to unload some ‘B’ pieces like Nicasio, Watson and Freese
3:33
Travis Sawchik: But this isn’t a great sellers market, apparently
3:34
JT: Who even trades for Darvish at this point? Doesn’t seem like Dodgers want to give up Buehler/Verdugo. Maybe dark horse like Royals?
3:34
Travis Sawchik: I wonder how much of a discounted price the Rangers are willing to move him for at this point
3:35
Travis Sawchik: If the Dodgers aren’t going to budge … ?
3:35
Adam: Do you find Trade Deadline Day or the Winter Meetings more exciting?
3:36
Travis Sawchik: I suppose the deadline day since the activity is packed into a more concentrated time … but no ridiculous FA signings
3:36
LegallyEagle: What’s a comparable package from the Dodgers to what the Yankees ended up giving the A’s? Would Calhoun, Diaz, & lower tier pitching prospect been enough?
3:36
Travis Sawchik: According to some midseason rankings that might have been a better, at least a similar, return
3:37
Pine Marten: Any chance the Brewers could come in and say “WAIT!” and throw in Brinson for Gray? Or is it already too official?
3:37
Travis Sawchik: I think it’s too late. And I think the Brewers are better off keeping Brinson
3:37
Korey Cluber: Onto trade news that nobody cares about, Jays sending Joe Smith to the Indians in exchange for two low-level prospects. Angels on the verge of trading David Hernández. Detroit and Arizona discussing Jose Iglesias.
3:38
Travis Sawchik: Kind of ‘Meh’ trade deadline
3:38
Travis Sawchik: But there’s still time …
3:39
Andrew:

Indians send minor leaguers LHP Tom Pannone and SS Samad Taylor to Toronto for Joe Smith.
31 Jul 2017
3:39
Travis Sawchik: FYI
3:39
T: If Darvish doesn’t move then it’s a pretty bad look for the Ranger’s FO right
3:39
Travis Sawchik: Not a great look …. Comp pick return is not great if he’s not moved and not resigned
3:40
Scoops: Tony Watson–>Dodgers, guessing that takes them out of the Hand sweepstakes
3:40
Travis Sawchik: We have a trade!
3:41
Travis Sawchik: Watson’s performance, overall, this year hasn’t been great
3:41
Travis Sawchik: 16.8 % K rate, 43% GB rate, 4.61 xFIP
3:41
Travis Sawchik: He’s not what he was a couple years back … but maybe he can help more situationally
3:42
Travis Sawchik: One of the great people in the game, though
3:42
Dave Cameronaunepetitegraine: All of the Sudden, Gray, Tanaka (last 9 Starts, 3.43 in 57.2 inn, 74Ks, 9 walks and 48 hits), Severino, Jaimie Garcia, Montgomerry and CC Sabathia, yankees have a pretty darn good rotation and that Bullpen! Hmmmmmm
3:42
Travis Sawchik: Yankees are going to win the East
3:42
Travis Sawchik: I think
3:42
Jeb: NYY get Darvish for international bonus money : ) ?
3:42
Travis Sawchik: Ha
3:42
Travis Sawchik: Man, I kind of want to see that
3:43
AJS: Somewhat off topic, but how bad is replacement level pitching these days? Liriano has thrown 80+ innings of 4.72 FIP, yet is worth 0.8 WAR. Yunel Escobar, a league average hitter with average defense at 3B, has been worth the exact same in 364 PA. How does that make sense?
3:43
Travis Sawchik: I suppose it’s pretty awful
3:44
Travis Sawchik: But the Liriano trade is interesting for me because he is apparently going to be used as a reliever
3:44
Travis Sawchik: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/astros-add-francisco-liriano-plan-an-ex…
3:44
Travis Sawchik: I just wrote up that trade for the Site
3:44
Travis Sawchik: He has a 27% K-BB against lefties this year … a 4.8% mark (LOL) against righties
3:45
Travis Sawchik: The only thing Liriano has consistently and effectively done in his career is take care of left-handed hitters so I kind of like this for the Astros
3:45
Uncle Rico: Does Smith going to CLE make them a non player on Britton?
3:45
Travis Sawchik: CLE could still use a lefty reliever with Logan out of the season
3:46
confused: Can you please recap all trades today so far?
3:46
Travis Sawchik: Check out FanGraphs dot com
3:46
PTBNL: Orioles need to start the rebuild now, next year might be too late. That team might be unwatchable if Machado leaves in free agency next year.
3:46
Travis Sawchik: Yeah, I thought Orioles should have blown it up already
3:46
Travis Sawchik: Orioles are going to face a rebuild whether they like it or not
3:46
Travis Sawchik: and better to trade assets a year too early than too late
3:47
Spencer: Bigger potential impact move out there for Astros in postseason: Hand or Darvish?
3:47
Travis Sawchik: I love Hand but I will still take the starter
3:47
Travis Sawchik: Plus, Liriano might actually fill a LHP relief role pretty well
3:47
BESR: As a Reds fan, replacement level pitching is REALLY bad
3:47
Travis Sawchik: Truth
3:48
hoju: is it a failure if the Nats stay put?
3:48
Travis Sawchik: Well, Nats have already made some significant moves
3:48
Travis Sawchik: But they could use another RP (or two) and I don’t love their catching situation
3:49
Travis Sawchik: I’d love Flowers in Washington
3:49
Korey Cluber: What if the Yankees traded Jaime Garcia?
3:49
Travis Sawchik: That would be ice cold
3:49
Josiah: thoughts on Watson to LA?
3:49
Travis Sawchik: Meh
3:49
Travis Sawchik: Good for beat writers though, as he’s a great dud e
3:50
Bo: Britton market drying up fast… Think he stays put?
3:50
Travis Sawchik: Well, we have about 10 minutes … So I’ll say he stays put
3:50
PTBNL: Judge since the all-star break: 57 wRC+, 35% K%, .158/.310/.316. Is this the regression we’ve all been waiting for since April?
3:50
Travis Sawchik: It was the home run derby!
3:50
Travis Sawchik: Seriously, though, he was going to have a lull at some point
3:51
CamdenWarehouse: Is it really a rebuild if you let all of your assets walk and don’t acquire anything new internationally or via a trade?
3:51
Travis Sawchik: A walk-off rebuild
3:51
weezy: Seems like this is the lowest percentage of players rumored to move who have actually moved in my memory… Have any thoughts on that premise?
3:52
Travis Sawchik: Not a great sellers market, I suppose. And an awful market for positional players
3:52
aaron pantsoff: why the hell arent the padres trading brad hand? seemed to be the biggest impact guy on the market…
3:53
Travis Sawchik: He would still have value in offseason, but they might have overplayed their Hand.
3:53
Travis Sawchik: That was bad
3:53
Dr. Met: Liriano = ollie perez when he converted to a RP?
3:53
Travis Sawchik: Could be something like that
3:53
Travis Sawchik: What if the Astros just added a great lefty reliever?
3:53
PTBNL: Ten minutes to go – who’s the biggest name that will get moved between now and 4?
3:53
Travis Sawchik: I really thought we’d see Hand, Britton and Kintzler moved
3:53
Eli CP: A lot of speculation earlier that Kintzler could be moved, any chance of that now? Why would the Twins want to hold onto him?
3:54
Travis Sawchik: Twins are motivated to move him, you would think
3:54
Sources: Tigers will probably have to eat a good chunk of money in any Verlander trade. At a certain point, isn’t there more value in letting a team legend retire with the team (ticket sales, fan interest, etc.)?
3:54
Travis Sawchik: Maybe if you’re still stuck with him entering his final year
3:54
Bart: So the Yankees still have a hole at 1B.  Will they use Todd Frazier and Headly there until hopefully Bird is back?
3:55
Travis Sawchik: I like Alonso as a fit with NYY but maybe they feel they have enough, including a return of Bird
3:55
Pie: There’s not a lot of time left
3:55
Travis Sawchik: Indeed
3:55
Travis Sawchik:

Projecting Dustin Fowler and Jorge Mateo fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=260747
31 Jul 2017
3:56
Travis Sawchik: Some words on the A’s return for Gray
3:56
Travis Sawchik:

Sources: #Padres holding Brad Hand.
31 Jul 2017
3:57
Travis Sawchik: Wow
3:57
Jay: Biggest surprise if they aren’t dealt: Britton, Alonso, Kintzler, Hand?
3:57
Travis Sawchik: And Darvish
3:57
Padres Fan: At least Hand is hot, so hopefully we’ll get something good for him in the winter…
3:57
Travis Sawchik: Nice … and possible
3:57
Bork: Only a couple minutes left, teams better make sure their fax machines are okay.
3:58
Travis Sawchik: I think the last practical usage of fax machines is for letters of intent on national signing day
3:58
BluBaree: Brian Cashman HOF?
3:59
Travis Sawchik: He’s had a nice calendar year … and his survival in the NY market is kind of incredible
3:59
Korey Cluber: This is lame.
3:59
Travis Sawchik: Entertain us, baseball
3:59
Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: What is the worst rebuild you can recall?  Current Padres?  Current Phillies?  Other?  One that never happened, like the Mariners since forever?
4:00
Travis Sawchik: Padres have assembled a pretty intriguing system
4:00
Travis Sawchik: Orioles are in for a really rough period
4:00
Bo: How much of holding a guy you’d otherwise get negligible value for by keeping (Darvish, Britton, Hand) a statement to future dealings that you won’t back your offer last minute?
4:00
Travis Sawchik: The old long con
4:01
Travis Sawchik: I don’t know that executives operate that way. If you had a lifetime contract, perhaps
4:01
jeff: Biggest winner?
4:01
Travis Sawchik: Yankees … when including deal with ChiSox
4:01
jeff: Biggest Loser?
4:02
Travis Sawchik: Padres, Rangers, Tigers (not getting enough return for assets like JD)
4:03
Q-Ball: Compare the Yankees price for Gray, and the Cubs price for Quintana.  Who got the better deal relative to price?
4:03
Travis Sawchik: Yankees got a better value, imo
4:03
Travis Sawchik: Patience was a virtue, perhaps
4:03
Travis Sawchik: But most teams would rather have Quintana, I think
4:04
Shades of Gray: Is Gray the remaining piece to put the yankees as favorite over the SOX?
4:04
Travis Sawchik: Gray and the bullpen upgrade earlier this month
4:04
Travis Sawchik: Although, FanGraphs playoff odds still prefer Red Sox http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx
4:05
CamdenWarehouse: If you need video go to Foxsports.com
4:05
Travis Sawchik: Ugh. So awful
4:05
Travis Sawchik: The media world is in utter chaos
4:05
Matt: Rosenthal saying Dodgers focused on Britton – what kind of return are the O’s going to want?
4:06
Travis Sawchik: Apparently they went to Plan B
4:06
Travis Sawchik: Teams might have shied away from Britton given that he has not looked like pre-injury Britton. I mean, that makes a ton of sense .
4:07
Travis Sawchik:

Nationals trade for Brandon Kintzler, according to a person familiar.
31 Jul 2017
4:07
Travis Sawchik: Buzzer beater
4:07
Travis Sawchik: I like that pickup for Nats. They have to go all-in this year and next
4:07
DB: Is this the most boring trade deadline in the history of trade deadlines?
4:08
Travis Sawchik: Not great. But still had a top-of-the-rotation arm dealt to Yankees, so that’s interesting
4:08
Paul: So if the projections prefer the Sox, why do you prefer the Yanks?
4:09
Travis Sawchik: I love the bullpen the Yankees built ,Tanaka might be getting it together, and Gray solidifies rotation
4:09
Travis Sawchik: I could be wrong
4:09
Nodak: I don’t remember a trade deadline (July) where teams were acquiring and trading guys like the Mets (Duda and Ramos).
4:09
Travis Sawchik: Pirates dumped (Liriano) and bought (Nova) last deadline
4:09
Travis Sawchik: It’s kind of unusual
4:10
Will: Beckham to the O’s!!!
4:10
Phil: Tim Beckham to the O’s for Brach
4:10
ET: Tim Beckham to Baltimore
4:10
Travis Sawchik: I did not have that in the pool
4:11
RMR: Tony Cingrani to LAD.  Free from the curse of Reds pitchers giving up homers at a historic rate, I expect he’ll be a solid addition.
4:11
Chris R: Cingrani to the Dodgers as well…interesting
4:13
Travis Sawchik: Dodgers are loading up on ‘meh’ lefties
4:13
Travis Sawchik:

Source: Darvish TRADED.
31 Jul 2017
4:13
Travis Sawchik: Woah
4:13
Travis Sawchik: Where, Ken ?!?
4:14
Travis Sawchik: THE SUSPENSE
4:14
Travis Sawchik:

Source: Darvish to #Dodgers
31 Jul 2017
4:14
Travis Sawchik: Well then
4:14
Travis Sawchik: Not such a boring deadline
4:15
Travis Sawchik: I kinda like this Dodgers team
4:16
Travis Sawchik:

4:16
Travis Sawchik: Dodgers at the deadline
4:17
FlyOverCountry: Looks like our time in the Series is over.  NY/LA ??
4:17
Travis Sawchik: It was quite a run, FlyOverCountry
4:17
Travis Sawchik: The 2018-19 FA class is going to bring up more Have vs. Have Nots discussions, I suspect
4:18
Travis Sawchik: Curious to see what return was for Darvish
4:19
Dave53: Thoughts on whether Watson or Cingrani were flipped to the Rangers?  Perhaps to fill the Claudio roles if Claudio was included in the
4:19
Travis Sawchik: We’ll have to wait and see what Ken tells us!
4:19
Travis Sawchik: But, yeah, that would make sense
4:19
alpha309: Darvish to Dodgers is a waste of resources.  Only so many starters needed for playoffs, they already have 38 or so
4:20
Travis Sawchik: Darvish was a luxury item for LAD,  i think. I’d be surprised if they overpaid
4:20
Brendon: Is Rosenthal the most connected writer in the industry?
4:20
Travis Sawchik: Yes. I believe so. And FoxSports.com was thinking what exactly?
4:21
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: We knew a lot of pitchers would change teams, but can we talk about the fact that Tim Beckham and Adam Rosales were the “impact bats” traded today? I guess we got JD Martinez, Todd Frazier, and Alex Avila, but where are my Jose Vizcaino for Jim Leyritz swaps?!
4:21
Travis Sawchik: That’s pretty crazy. No market for bats
4:21
Chris R: Finally Dodgers going all in. Can’t trust Maeda, Hill, McCarthy, or Ryu in the playoffs. All would be fantastic bullpen 2-3 inning pieces.
4:21
Travis Sawchik: Dodgers might be thinking that way … Or they might want Kershaw insurance … or both
4:21
Jobu: Was britton moved?
4:22
Travis Sawchik: I think he’s still waiting in the Baltimore bullpen for a call that never came
4:23
Travis Sawchik: What’s Yu’s K rate going to be in the NL?
4:23
Rex Manning Day: where does Cashman’s 2016-2017 rank in the All-Time Back-to-Back Summer Trade Deadlines list?
4:23
Travis Sawchik: It has to be near the top, right?
4:24
Travis Sawchik: The results of the process will dictate ranking
4:24
Brian Cashmon: Darvish goes from 3rd worst framing team to best… and the NL!?!?
4:25
Matty P: i see you tweeting Travis, nice multitasking
4:25
Travis Sawchik: Lot of things going on the stove right now
4:26
Travis Sawchik: Great point on framing. Darvish going from Lucroy to my man Grandal
4:26
Travis Sawchik: Darvish is going to strike out the world in LAD
4:26
JC: O/U dave’s article about how great the dodgers are (part 999): next 15 minutes
4:26
Travis Sawchik: I think this is happening and it’s warranted
4:26
BrianMonzoWFAN: Hello, this is Brian Monzo with the Mike Francesa show on WFAN NY. Would you be interested in calling in to talk about the trade deadline with Mike?
4:27
Travis Sawchik: Any time!
4:27
The Old Buccaneer: Joaquin Benoit to the Pirates! Wooo!
4:27
Travis Sawchik: This was interesting. Pirates buying
4:27
Sam: Cashman Cashman Cashman, how bout some Hahn love, Travis?
4:27
Travis Sawchik: Hahn has to be more active on deadline day 😉
4:28
Travis Sawchik: I generally like what ChiSox have done, though they’ve taken on a ton of risk with a ton of upsi
de
4:28
JT:

Alex Verdugo not in the Darvish trade.
31 Jul 2017
4:28
Travis Sawchik: hmmmmm
4:28
Travis Sawchik: Did the Dodgers steal Darvish?
4:29
Cheek: lol literally listening to WFAN and on this chat at the same time, what’s going on
4:29
Travis Sawchik: Worlds colliding
4:29
Bo: Dodgers had 3 losses all July, 2 to the Braves. They got Darvish just to be sure they don’t lose a game in Atlanta this week.
4:29
Travis Sawchik: Dodgers-Indians World Series, book it
4:30
Morii: Astros?
4:30
Travis Sawchik: I can’t pick all of the favorites
4:30
Travis Sawchik: I do like how CLE is step up for postseason … particularly if Salazar is really back
4:31
Erik: How about some love for Klentak for managing to sell both Hellickson and Benoit? Even if they got nothing in return, those are two total non-assets, so getting anything at all is impressive.
4:31
Travis Sawchik: What was the return for Benoit? I haven’t seen
4:32
Cheek: Yankees get more int’l bonus money from O’s what’s going on here? Besides Otani is there any other great international prospects in the next cycle?
4:32
Travis Sawchik: Hmmmmm
4:32
Chris:

Righties hitting .099/.200/.113 against McGarry in Florida State League. Doesn’t need to be protected. Live body fo… twitter.com/i/web/status/8…
31 Jul 2017
4:32
Travis Sawchik: Interesting
4:32
Chris R: Curious as why many people were against Darvish to LA with the asking price. Haven’t had a good RH starter aside from Maeda since Greinke/Haren and some moments with Beckett in 14/15.
4:32
Travis Sawchik: I think many thought it would be expensive
4:33
NBA fan: Can we just skip the rest of the MLB regular season and just start the playoffs early?  Watching the Dodgers play anyone will be a yawn….
4:33
Travis Sawchik: MLB is still not the NBA (which is good if you’re looking of a sport with some unpredictability)
4:33
Daniel Castro Fan Club: Calhoun is the first piece in the Darvish deal!
4:33
John: looks like calhoun to the rangers
4:33
Scott: Calhoun is one of the prospects to the Rangers… supposedly got three…
4:33
Chris:

Willie Calhoun is one of the pieces going to #Rangers in Yu Darvish deal, source says.
31 Jul 2017
4:34
Travis Sawchik: BA’s No. 74 prospect
4:34
VanExelent: Calhoun, Alexy and Davis to the Rangers for Darvish
4:36
Chris: How much did the Sonny Gray deal effect/cement the asking price for Darvish?
4:36
Travis Sawchik: Not sure. Different animals. Darvish is a rental. Seems like LAD did well, don’t hate it for Texas
4:37
Travis Sawchik: Alright folks, I have to go write up some of this trade madness. Thanks for stopping by to chat! I will be back next week





 

Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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GinOlyWA
6 years ago

How about those Mariners.

2